Uncertainty Calibration

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15 papers in the last four weeks, up 7% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Evaluating and Calibrating Diffusion Model-derived Uncertainty for Quantitative MRI Mapping

    Aug 12, 2026Shishuai Wang, Stefan Klein, Juan A. Hernandez-Tamames +1Uncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands · Department of Imaging Physics, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands

  2. Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

    Aug 11, 2026Sangjin Jin, Kangmin Kim, Junhyeong Lee +1Time Series ForecastingConformal Prediction

    Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology Ulsan, Republic of Korea

  3. Fisher8: Stabilizing Neural Heteroscedastic Regression via Output-Layer Fisher Geometry

    Aug 11, 2026Sumedh Vemuganti, Nickvash KaniNatural Gradient MethodsHeteroscedastic Regression

    Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

  4. Invertible Logits Transformation for Accuracy-Preserving Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration

    Aug 11, 2026Lening Zhao, Qipeng Zhan, Li ShenPost-Hoc CalibrationModel Calibration

    University of Pennsylvania

  5. You Only Flow Once: Calibrated and Real-Time Radar Pose Estimation with Multi-Hypothesis Normalizing Flows

    Aug 10, 2026Jonas Leo Mueller, Sebastian Hoefler, Dario Zanca +3Normalizing FlowsMillimeter-Wave Radar

    Department Artificial Intelligence in Biomedical Engineering (AIBE), Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany · Chair of AI-supported Therapy Decisions, LMU München +1

  6. Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

    Aug 10, 2026Luís Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry BerensonContact-Rich Robotic ManipulationConformal Prediction

    Department of Robotics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA · Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA

  7. When Confidence Fails: Overconfidence in LLMs under Uncertainty and Missing Clinical Information

    Aug 10, 2026Maryam Tahermazandarani, Adnan Mahmood, Fahmida Islam +1Hallucination in Language ModelsLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    School of Computing, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia

  8. Physics-Informed Learning for Robust Acoustic Localization with Calibrated Uncertainty

    Aug 9, 2026Jennifer N. Kampe, Changwoo J. Lee, Xin Shen +5Physics-Informed MLBioacoustics

    Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland · Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA · 3Digital Services, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland +1

  9. CUPA-T2*: Covariance-Aware Uncertainty Propagation and Alignment for T2* Mapping in Accelerated MRI

    Aug 9, 2026Gideon N. L. Rouwendaal, Natascha Niessen, Hannah Eichhorn +3Uncertainty QuantificationHeteroscedastic Regression

    Institute of Machine Learning in Biomedical Imaging, Helmholtz Munich, Germany · School of Computation, Information & Technology, Technical University of Munich, Germany · GE HealthCare, Munich, Germany +6

  10. UQ-Loc: Uncertainty-Aware LiDAR Scene Coordinate Regression

    Aug 6, 2026Jacek KomorowskiUncertainty QuantificationLiDAR Localization

    Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

  11. Unscented KalmanNet: Structure-Preserving Deep Learning with Calibrated Posterior Uncertainty under Incomplete Physics and Unknown Noise

    Aug 4, 2026Minhyeok Ko, Abdollah ShafieezadehKalman FilteringUnscented Kalman Filtering

    Department of Civil and Construction Engineering and Management, The University of Texas at Tyler, Tyler, TX, 75799, USA · Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA

  12. DUD: Decoupled Update Dynamics for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

    Aug 4, 2026Yixin Bu, Runze Xia, Guanyun Zou +3LLM Uncertainty EstimationUncertainty Calibration

    College of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China · 2The Key Laboratory of Brain-Machine Intelligence Technology, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, China · 3Researcher

  13. Deep Evidential Regression for Sparse Forest Height Estimation from Multimodal Satellite Imagery

    Aug 3, 2026Laura Bader, Muhammad Ammar Ahmed, Xiao Xiang Zhu +1Remote Sensing Image UnderstandingEvidential Deep Learning

    LMU Munich, 80539 Munich, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · TU Munich, 80333 Munich

  14. PNEC-Mamba: Prototype-Guided Positive-Negative Evidence Calibration for Hyperspectral Image Classification

    Aug 3, 2026Mingzhen Xu, Can Xu, Di Wang +2Prototype-Based ClassificationHyperspectral Image Classification

  15. Uncertainty-Aware Deepfake Detection via Multi-View Structural Learning

    Jul 30, 2026Muhammad Umar Farooq, Kutub Uddin, Awais Khan +1Multi-View LearningOOD Generalization

    College of Innovation and Technology University of Michigan, Flint, MI 48502

  16. From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models

    Jul 29, 2026Alexej Klushyn, Juan Rivero Sesma, Florian Seligmann +3Post-Hoc CalibrationUncertainty Quantification

    Airbus Central Research & Technology · Airbus Commercial Aircraft · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology +2

  17. proxymate: Diagnosis and Adjustment of Proxy Estimates for Reliable Inference

    Jul 27, 2026Alexandra N. M. Darmon, Deeksha Sinha, Steve Wilkins-Reeves +1Causal InferenceUncertainty Calibration

    Meta

  18. FinAbstain: Uncertainty-Calibrated Multimodal RAG for Selective Financial Forecasting

    Jul 27, 2026Dorothy Torres, Wei Cheng, Henan HuangSelective PredictionFinancial Forecasting

    School of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics 263 Academy Street, Room S204 Jersey City, NJ 07306 · School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science The Pennsylvania State University 207 Electrical Engineering West University Park, PA 16802, USA

  19. Controllable Diversity in Normalization-Based Implicit Ensembles via Softmax-Temperature Modulation

    Jul 26, 2026Mihai Suteu, Ovidiu SerbanEnsemble LearningEnsemble Diversity

    Data Science Institute, Imperial College London

  20. Priors learned from legacy reconstructions inherit undetectable overconfidence

    Jul 23, 2026Ali Siahkoohi, Sina AlemohammadUncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inverse Problems

    Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA

  21. Evaluating medical AI under missing information: same-provider judges and human raters change apparent safety

    Jul 21, 2026Koyar AfrasyabLLM-as-a-JudgeLanguage Model Safety Evaluation

    Kinvectum AB, Sweden

  22. Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

    Jul 20, 2026Matthew F. DixonUncertainty QuantificationConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    Artificial Intelligence Finance Institute (AIFI), 69 Charlton St, New York, NY 10014, USA

  23. Isotonic Conformal Prediction

    Jul 18, 2026Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk +1Conformal PredictionUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McGill University; Mila · Eli Lilly and Company

  24. Posterior Variance Is a Constraint Map, Not an Error Map: Closed-Form Uncertainty for Radiative Gaussian Splatting in Sparse-View CT

    Jul 15, 2026Chulin Zhao, Yiran Xu, Shu Liu3D Gaussian SplattingUncertainty Quantification

    1Dundee International Institute, Central South University · 2Central South University

  25. Exact and Calibrated Diffusion Reconstruction for Digital Breast Tomosynthesis

    Jul 14, 2026Imade BouftiniImage ReconstructionSparse-View CT Reconstruction

  26. Learning-based Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Post-hoc and In-model Uncertainty

    Jul 14, 2026Sarah Al-Shareeda, Gulcihan Ozdemir, Heung Seok JeonQuantile RegressionTime Series Forecasting

    aComputer System and Technology Department, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Malaysia · bInformatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey · cComputer Engineering Department Konkuk University South Korea

  27. Imputation-free transformer learning enables robust Alzheimer's disease prediction and calibrated uncertainty quantification across heterogeneous clinical cohorts

    Jul 13, 2026Christelle Schneuwly Diaz, Narmina Baghirova, Duy-Thanh Vu +4Missing-Modality LearningLearning with Missing Data

    Platform of Bioinformatics, Lausanne University Hospital. · Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne. · 3Leenaards Memory Centre, Lausanne University Hospital. +1

  28. Bet on Features: Anytime-Valid and Feature-Aware Auditing of Conditional Quantile Forecasters

    Jul 13, 2026Ivane Antonov, Sohom Mukherjee, Richard Pibernik +1Quantile RegressionSequential Hypothesis Testing

    Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg · INSEAD

  29. When does distribution shift break graph neural networks calibration?

    Jul 12, 2026Abderaouf BahiGraph Neural NetworksModel Calibration

    Computer Science and Applied Mathematics Laboratory (LIMA), Faculty of Science and Technology, Chadli Bendjedid University, El Tarf 36000, Algeria

  30. TSCoNet: A Two-Stage Copula CNN-LSTM for Uncertainty-Aware Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

    Jul 11, 2026Jongwook Kim, Jong-Min KimMultivariate Time Series ForecastingCopula Models

    Statistics Discipline, Division of Science and Mathematics, University of Minnesota-Morris