Value of Information
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5 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.
Latest papers 18
Information elicitation is an open-ended information-seeking problem in which an interaction can unfold in many potentially valuable directions, requiring an elicitor to continually determine which information to pursue as new information emerges. In agentic elicitation, these decisions may be delegated to a foundation model, yet how model choice shapes the resulting information-seeking behavior remains understudied. We study how judgments about information value vary across LLMs and how these differences shape sequential information seeking. We first examine these judgments across 11 LLMs spanning multiple model families and parameter scales, using a shared set of information and elicitation objectives. We then develop a controlled elicitation simulation in which different models encounter the same information space and use the same selection rule, isolating these judgments from question generation and respondent behavior. Using this setting, we characterize the breadth-depth behavior that emerges from model-specific information-seeking preferences over the course of elicitation. We further examine how interaction history changes the evaluation and subsequent selection of prospective information. We test the robustness and boundaries of these findings through sensitivity analyses and ablations over the opportunities available to the elicitor, the response labels used to operationalize information-seeking preferences, the presence of interaction history, and whether redundancy is explicitly relevant to the assessment. The project code, data, and trajectory files are available at https://github.com/infosenselab/open-elicitation.
Should I stay or should I show? Learning to selectively disclose information
In many high-stakes settings, human decision-makers can acquire support information before making a decision. However, acquiring information is costly, and disclosure may fail to improve human decisions or may even impair them. We tackle this problem by studying selective disclosure, i.e., the problem of learning when to reveal support information to a human decision-maker under a budget constraint. We first show that the optimal policy is a threshold rule on the Value of Information (VoI), i.e., the expected reduction in human decision risk induced by disclosure. Since VoI is unknown in practice, we estimate the regime-specific human risks and bound the possible degradation of the resulting plug-in policy relative to lack of disclosure, as well as its regret relative to the optimal policy. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that selective disclosure outperforms both no disclosure and full disclosure, regardless of whether the support information is beneficial or harmful. Two user studies show that human-AI team performance can improve when disclosure is led by our learned policy and not human-selected, although this advantage varies across tasks. A counterfactual benchmark, which replaces participants' predictions with a machine-learning prediction when disclosure occurs, suggests that these differences might depend on lower adherence to advice when the information is automatically provided rather than self-requested.
Rational Clarification by Assistive Agents via Value-of-Information Reasoning
Users of language-based assistive agents often make ambiguous requests. In response, an assistant can either directly act on its interpretation of the request --- risking misalignment with the user --- or ask a clarifying question. Which option is the most safe and helpful? A common approach is to ask questions that minimize uncertainty about the user's intent until a threshold is reached. However, this neglects the impact of uncertainty reduction on downstream performance, the costs of asking versus acting immediately, and the possibility that users may provide corrections without being asked. To navigate these trade-offs, we introduce Rational Enquiry via Value-of-Information Reasoning (REVOIR). REVOIR makes clarification decisions via inference-time reasoning about the value-of-information of a question, which captures the expected improvement in task reward due to the answer received. In two assistive tasks --- ambiguous question answering (CondAmbigQA) and preference-aligned household task planning (ADAPT) --- we show that REVOIR achieves greater success with fewer questions than approaches based on prompting, chain-of-thought, fine-tuning, or information gain, improving preference satisfaction on ADAPT by 13-15% over a fine-tuned clarification policy while requiring no training and asking five times fewer questions. Furthermore, when the assistant can receive cheap user corrections after acting, REVOIR naturally infers that asking questions is not always efficient, demonstrating the adaptivity of our approach. In contrast, we find that vanilla reasoning agents fail to adaptively clarify user requests, and request fewer clarifications as reasoning effort increases.
Quantifying the Value of Privileged Information Using a PAC-Bayesian Approach
In practice, various learning scenarios provide access to auxiliary features exclusively during training. Incorporating such data to enhance model performance gave rise to a paradigm known as Learning Using Privileged Information (LUPI). While this extra information is intended to improve the resulting model, establishing a generalized, cohesive understanding of how privileged information (PI) transfers useful knowledge remains a challenge. Vapnik's original theory and subsequent works offer performance guarantees in certain cases, but these results are inherently per-algorithm and rely on setting-specific proof approaches. Consequently, a more general framework explaining how and when PI transfers useful knowledge is still missing. To bridge this gap, we introduce an algorithm-agnostic, information-theoretic approach based on the PAC-Bayes framework. Rather than asking whether a particular algorithm exploits PI, we ask how much value it could offer: comparing the tightest achievable risk bound with and without PI yields its potential - an upper limit on the extractable gain. We introduce a metric that quantifies this potential directly from empirical training risk, bypassing the need for test-time data access, and validate our findings in both supervised and unsupervised settings. The results demonstrate a robust correspondence between our training-time metric and true test-time performance gains. Ultimately, this work takes a necessary step toward an information-theoretic understanding of LUPI, and quantifying the potential of privileged features before committing to a model.
When Information is Worth the Risk: Behavioral Valuation for Hazardous Robotic Exploration
Hazardous robotic exploration requires robots to map spatial risks, such as unsafe terrain, radiation, fire, mines, or structural damage, while operating where collecting information can itself cause failure. A highly informative path may expose the robot to hazards, terminate execution, and prevent future observations. Hazardous exploration therefore requires deciding not only where uncertainty is largest, but when reducing it is worth the risk. This paper introduces a valuation-layer view of this problem. We keep the belief update, sensor model, physical risk model, and finite-horizon informative planner fixed, and change only the scalar objective used to rank feasible paths. Within this framework, we introduce a risk-augmented Behavioral Information objective based on Prelec probability weighting, yielding an interpretable family of conservative-to-aggressive information-risk valuations. Theoretically, we show that valuation parameters create switching boundaries between high-information/high-risk and lower-information/lower-risk paths, and induce a transformed Pareto-frontier structure over feasible exploration policies. Large-scale failure-truncated grid-world experiments show that valuation alone reshapes the information-risk frontier. Shannon information planning remains a strong raw-information baseline, while risk-aware objectives can reduce hazard exposure and robot losses by avoiding failures that truncate future sensing. Risk-augmented Behavioral valuation is Pareto-competitive with standard risk-aware baselines and provides interpretable conservative and intermediate regimes. These results support a framework in which robots reason not only about how much uncertainty an action reduces, but whether that reduction is worth the risk required to obtain it.
A Mathematical Theory of Pragmatic Information
We propose a mathematical theory of pragmatic information that connects communication, control, and decision-making. Its central notion is the isoteleia mapping, which formalizes equifinality: distinct semantic paths that lead to the same optimal action are treated as pragmatically equivalent. This mapping yields a three-tier hierarchy of syntactic, semantic, and pragmatic information, in which each successive abstraction removes distinctions that are irrelevant to the task. We then define pragmatic entropy, up/down pragmatic mutual information, channel capacity, and rate-distortion, and prove lossless source coding, channel coding, and rate-distortion theorems that extend Shannon's results. These measures quantify decision uncertainty, reliable transmission, and task-oriented compression at the level of terminal actions. We further introduce pragmatic value of information (VoI) and pragmatic cost of information (CoI) as decision-theoretic duals to rate-distortion and capacity, and develop a Lagrangian dual framework for cross-layer optimization. The resulting pragmatic efficiency bound characterizes the maximum net utility attainable by a resource-constrained intelligent system under a given resource price, yielding a behavioral capacity that extends Shannon's symbol-level capacity to goal-directed action. Extensions to continuous messages provide closed-form expressions for Gaussian channels and sources, while dynamic settings are addressed through a Bellman equation for sequential decision-making. The framework supports task-oriented communication, networked control, autonomous systems, and embodied AI by shifting emphasis from symbol fidelity to the effectiveness of information in guiding actions. In this way, it offers a common language for systems that extract value from information under resource constraints.
Thermodynamics of Learning: A Typed Four-Component Accounting of Memory, Fit, and Value
What a finite learning device has recorded and what will hold value for it on future tasks are not the same quantity. We develop a typed accounting for finite-state learning devices that separates four components: a training-side fit functional , the record-correlation stock , an update-side search ledger , and an operational capital value . This value is the work gap between an informed protocol class and a blind class obtained by deleting the memory-read port and re-optimizing from scratch. (I) Separation: for every , there is a device family on which record correlation and world correlation grow by while the capital gain is exactly zero. In the regime, data-free updates never increase . (II) Capitalization ledger: an exact extraction identity and a universal ledger identity give, for (F5)-stable -local updates under a no-discarded-record-correlation condition (f), the bound for the capitalization efficiency , together with necessary and sufficient conditions for equality. (III) Value retention: for the retention gap and retention ratio (the former carries no sign constraint; the latter is defined for positive training-side value and is not confined to ) we give a two-layer alignment domain: an exact exchange rate between value and the side-information-adjusted record fit without any record-side-information independence assumption, and a raw record-stock exchange rate under a joint side-information neutrality condition , whose boundary is marked by an explicit one-time-pad witness. These are statements about finite-device value retention under task-distribution shift, not a theory of statistical generalization.
Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying
This paper proposes the Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) model, which formalizes the value of trying a candidate design action as its expected reduction of epistemic uncertainty about action--outcome relations. The model addresses one part of the Uncertainty Driven Action (UDA) model's open question concerning how changes in uncertainty perception determine action selection. We examine two environmental properties: generalizability, or how far knowledge from one trial extends to neighboring candidates, and outcome discriminability, or how clearly differences among outcomes can be distinguished. We tested the model through simulations and human experiments using a graph-shape guessing task that isolates learning about action--outcome relations under a limited trial budget. Epistemic value followed an inverted-U-shaped relationship with generalizability and increased with outcome discriminability in the simulations. In the human experiments, the subjective value of trying and enjoyment followed inverted-U-shaped relationships with generalizability, while choice behavior reflected both properties. The B-EUR model provides a computational account of candidate-action evaluation within uncertainty-driven design activity and offers implications for constructing prototype sets, framing design problems, and organizing feedback to support informative exploration.
Uncertainty Is Not Enough: Value-of-Information Routing for Mixtures of LoRA Experts
Mixtures of low-rank adaptation experts increase parameter-efficient capacity by routing each input through a subset of adapters. Recent dynamic routers activate more experts when the router or prediction is uncertain. This rule silently equates uncertainty with useful additional computation: an uncertain example may contain complementary, unqueried expert evidence, but it may instead remain ambiguous after every expert agrees. We formulate routing as certified value-of-information allocation. VI-MoLE learns the counterfactual risk remaining after each expert prefix, converts these predictions into simultaneous upper-risk certificates on held-out calibration data, and spends a global adapter budget on the token--layer action with the largest certified marginal risk reduction per unit cost. A terminal certificate then decides whether to answer or abstain. Unlike an uncertainty gate, this procedure distinguishes present ambiguity from recoverable and residual risk. We prove simultaneous certificate validity, optimal greedy allocation under diminishing certified gains, and allocation regret under value-estimation error. The evaluation protocol tests matched-compute accuracy, certificate coverage, risk--coverage, distribution shift, and tail latency against fixed and dynamic MoE-LoRA routers.
Expected Free Energy as Belief-Dependent Utility for rho-POMDPs
An agent acting under partial observability must decide when to gather information and which observations are worth their cost. Standard POMDPs value information only through its eventual effect on reward. The -POMDP framework instead rewards uncertainty reduction directly, through a belief-dependent utility , but in practice both the choice of and the weight placed on it are tuned by hand for every task. We show that active inference removes this tuning entirely. Minimizing Expected Free Energy (EFE) is exactly equivalent to solving a -POMDP whose utility is expected information gain, and the exploration weight is fixed at because the variational bound expresses pragmatic and epistemic value in the same units (nats). We prove this equivalence for observe-then-commit POMDPs and extend it to factored observation POMDPs, a broader class that covers interleaved observe-act problems such as non-destructive testing and mobile sensing, where gathering information leaves the hidden state unchanged. Experiments support the theory. Across environments ranging from the classic Tiger problem to RockSample and a new Structural Inspection benchmark with over 65,000 states, the untuned weight matches or outperforms reward-only planning at the same horizon, avoids the over-exploration of bonuses tuned per task, and sits near the reward-maximizing knee of the success-reward Pareto frontier. The practical payoff is an exploration objective that works out of the box. In applications such as fault detection and medical screening, where every test has a price and every missed fault has a cost, EFE supplies a belief-dependent utility that is derived rather than tuned.
Active Noise Floor Estimation for Reliability-Optimal POMDPs: A Value-of-Noise-Information Approach
Finite Reliability Representations (FRR) certify when a cell-constant policy is sufficient for reliable decision-making in a partially observed system with a known physical noise floor. In practice, however, sensing and execution noise can be latent and context-dependent. This paper develops a certificate-aware active disambiguation framework for an unknown physical noise parameter theta = (sigma_y, sigma_u), with the sensor-only case obtained by fixing sigma_u. We define the Value of Noise Information (VoNI) as the expected excess FRR certificate gap caused by using a reliability cover calibrated to the current estimate rather than to the realized noise parameter. We bound VoNI using action-value model mismatch and FRR radius inflation, showing that noise estimation has low decision value in sub-crossover regimes where the FRR certificate is insensitive to theta, but becomes valuable when posterior uncertainty can invalidate the current cover. A bi-level decision maker uses a posterior over theta, obtained from innovation statistics, execution residuals, or another online estimator, and triggers diagnostic probing only when uncertainty threatens the FRR certificate. We also interpret VoNI as a tractable, certificate-aware approximation to a high-level finite POMDP for latent sensing-execution regime disambiguation. Under stationary, identifiable, and persistently exciting regimes, we establish posterior consistency and convergence of the induced policy loss to the FRR approximation floor. Closed-loop UGV simulations with EKF-based innovation residuals show earlier detection of abrupt sensing-noise jumps, lower drift-tracking error, and substantially fewer probing actions than posterior-entropy exploration over 50 Monte Carlo trials.
Information Limits and Attractor Dynamics in Economies of Frontier LLM Agents: A Pre-Registered Test
We report a pre-registered, two-part experiment on small economies of frontier language-model agents (Claude Opus 4.8), testing two quantitative predictions about coupled multi-agent systems: an information-theoretic capacity region for wealth growth under market coupling, and a mean-field residual-scaling law for population misalignment under incentive and control levers. All predictions, acceptance bands, and decision rules were frozen in a public git chain before any run; every reported number re-derives mechanically from cached model outputs; the entire experiment cost $138.76 in metered API spend and is re-runnable at zero cost from the cache. Result 1 (confirmation): in parimutuel-coupled economies, relative growth equals relative claimed information -- the gap law G_a - G_b = I_a - I_b holds to a worst-case 46 millinats (pre-registered band: 50) across four perception structures; coalition value is submodular exactly where channels are conditionally independent, and a designed XOR synergy control flips it supermodular by 0.62 >= ln2/2 nats, with agents reasoning out the joint bit; the joint growth ceiling G_S <= H(X) binds exactly; and the best-informed agent absorbs essentially the whole wealth pool in 4/5 market seeds. Result 2 (structural negative): the residual-scaling test returned "domain not found." In all 72 population runs, goal dispersion collapsed (V -> 0; maximum 4.85 against a frozen floor of 5.31), the population's response to the two levers was a step function across the dominance boundary rather than a smooth response, and cells near the boundary were bistable with seed-selected outcomes. No tested LLM population at any capability level realizes the noise-maintained-dispersion regime the smooth mean-field model assumes. We release the full protocol, pre-registration chain, call cache, and analysis code.
How Much Due Diligence Before You Bid? Learning in Intractable Takeover Auctions
When two companies bid to buy the same target, no one knows exactly what the target is worth. Each bidder pays for due diligence: costly, imperfect homework that sharpens its own private estimate before it bids. How much of that homework is worth buying? We build a simple computer model of the bidding contest and let it teach itself to bid well by playing against itself, the way a game engine learns chess. The economic question, how much diligence pays for itself, and the computational question, when the contest becomes too complex to solve exactly, are both controlled by a single thing: how many pieces of private information a bidder carries. Our main finding is that the right amount of diligence is modest and finite. It falls as diligence gets more expensive, and it falls further when both sides are doing their homework, because competition erodes the value of knowing more. We also test a recent claim from AI research: that simple, general self-play methods can rival the specialized, expensive algorithms usually built for games like these. Running on an ordinary laptop with no costly frontier AI, we find the simple methods are the best of the self-learning approaches, though purpose-built exact methods still win whenever the game is small enough to solve outright. The simple methods earn their keep only once the game grows too large to solve exactly, which is the regime real deals live in, and there we show they still find strong bidding strategies. The contribution is threefold: a cheap, reproducible way to study deal-making under uncertainty; a concrete, model-based answer to how much due diligence is worth buying; and evidence about when lightweight, general-purpose AI is good enough to replace specialized methods. We release all the games, code, and experiments.
Value of Information under Imprecise Probabilities: Decision-Rule-Specific Values and Fixed-Measure Envelopes on a Credal Set
Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure. However, in practice, the available evidence often pins the measure down only to a set. Consequently, under a set of probability measures, VOI requires different formulations. First, we explicate a rule-specific VOI that fixes a decision rule for acting under imprecision (such as Gamma-maximin) and measures what the information is worth to a decision maker who uses that rule. Second, we derive a fixed-measure envelope that evaluates the classical VOI functional over all admissible precise measures. We formalize this distinction and explicate its consequences for the expected perfect, partial, and sample information. The expected value of perfect information is concave over the credal set. Hence, when the set is generated by finitely many measures, its lower envelope endpoint is obtained exactly from the generators, while its upper endpoint may be interior and is computed by a finite linear program. The Gamma-maximin value, in contrast, can exceed the entire envelope, so a rule-specific value is not recovered from the envelope's endpoints. A continuity bound limits how much the VOI can change as the measure varies, and we identify when the partial- and sample-information endpoints can still be obtained from the generators. Because the single-measure VOI must itself be estimated, the procedure we give combines standard estimators for it with a search over the credal set. By using a worked decision problem, we show how the two quantities separate conclusions that hold across every admissible measure from conclusions that depend on one unidentified choice of measure.
Information-Directed Offline-to-Online Reinforcement Learning
Decision-making from offline datasets typically warm-starts a policy or score model from fixed offline data and then refines it with limited online interaction. Offline data reduces uncertainty, but it does not remove the need for exploration; it changes what remains to be explored. We formalise this residual uncertainty by the conditional mutual information between a learning target and the online trajectories after conditioning on the offline dataset. This view leads naturally to information-directed sampling (IDS), a family parameterised by that selects actions by trading off instantaneous regret against information gain. We prove a generic offline-to-online Bayesian regret bound for IDS through a ratio certificate: any information-ratio bound satisfied by a reference Thompson-sampling policy over the same randomised policy class is inherited by IDS. In a known-dynamics Bayesian linear-reward model, the conditional mutual information has a log-determinant form, and vanilla IDS () satisfies where the coverage coefficient is tied to the visitation distribution induced by vanilla IDS itself. We also identify a warm-start regime with a dominated but informative probe in which vanilla IDS selects the probe while Thompson sampling never does, giving a constant-factor Bayesian regret separation. Controlled bandit experiments and D4RL offline-to-online RL experiments validate this mechanism: IDS is most beneficial when offline data is informative but leaves biased or low-probability residual uncertainty that targeted online actions can resolve, a regime shared by offline RL, offline black-box optimization, and Bayesian optimization.
Delightful Exploration
Most exploration algorithms search broadly until uncertainty is resolved. When the action space is too large to resolve within budget, practitioners default to -greedy, which bounds disruption but spends its override blindly. We introduce \textit{Delight-gated exploration} (DE), a host--override rule that spends exploratory actions only when their prospective delight (expected improvement times surprisal) exceeds a gate price. This practical heuristic recovers a classical result: Pandora's reservation-value rule for costly search, with surprisal setting the effective inspection cost. Resolved arms exit the gate, fresh arms shut off above a prior-determined threshold, and selected linear-bandit overrides consume finite information budget. Across Bernoulli bandits, linear bandits, and tabular MDPs, the same hyperparameters transfer without retuning, and DE shows much weaker regret growth than Thompson Sampling and -greedy in the tested unresolved regimes. Delight improves acting for the same reason it improves learning: it prices scarce resources by the product of upside and surprisal.
NH-CROP: Robust Pricing for Governed Language Data Assets under Cost Uncertainty
Language data are increasingly acquired and governed as assets, yet platforms often price candidate resources before knowing their true privacy or access costs. We study online pricing for governed language data assets under cost uncertainty. At each round, a platform observes an NLP task, a candidate asset, and a coarse cost estimate, may pay for a refined cost signal, posts a price, and receives safe net revenue. We introduce \textsc{NH-CROP}, a clipped robust pricing framework with a no-harm information-acquisition gate. The method compares direct pricing, risk-aware pricing, and verify-then-price, and acquires information only when its estimated decision value exceeds the best no-verification alternative. Across synthetic, real-proxy, and downstream-utility-grounded benchmarks, clipped \textsc{NH-CROP} variants improve or remain competitive with price-only and risk-aware baselines. Causal ablations show that paid verification is not the main source of gains in real-proxy and utility-grounded settings: the strongest learned policies often choose not to verify. Oracle and high-decision-value diagnostics show that refined cost information can still have substantial local value. Overall, governed language-data platforms should calibrate pricing under uncertain access costs first and verify only when information is cheap and decision-actionable.
Unfair Utilities and First Steps Towards Improving Them
Many fairness criteria constrain the policy or choice of predictors, which can have unwanted consequences, in particular, when optimizing the policy under such constraints. Here, we in- stead suggest that fairness can be directly analyzed as a property of the utility function. Instead of imposing fairness constraints on the policy, we suggest to simply maximize a utility function satisfying certain fairness properties. Concretely, we define value of information fairness, which prescribes that there must not be an incentive to infer the protected attribute. This principle sug- gests modifying utility functions such that they satisfy value of information fairness. We describe how such modifications can be achieved and discuss consequences for the corresponding optimal policies. We apply our framework to thought experiments and the COMPAS data, demonstrating that focusing on utility functions sometimes provides answers that better align with intuitive judg- ments about what is fair. Moreover, we are not aware of any intuitively fair policy that violates value of information fairness; and when we find that value of information fairness recommends an intuitively unfair policy, no realizable policy is intuitively fair.