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10 papers in the last four weeks, up 233% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Bayesian Fine-tuning Yields Language Models that are as Bayesian as their Beliefs Allow
Sep 30, 2026Polina Tsvilodub, Andreas Waldis, Linlu Qiu +2Large Language Model Fine-Tuning Model Fine-Tuning
University of Tübingen · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · New York University
BayesNDE: Bayesian Generative Modeling for Neural Density Estimation
Sep 30, 2026Chenglin Li, Qiao LiuDensity Ratio Estimation Bayesian
Department of Biostatistics, Yale University New Haven, Connecticut, USA
Gaussian Neural Networks
Sep 28, 2026Peter Kuhn, Victoria Heusinger-HeßBayesian Neural Networks Neural Network
Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Germany
Singularities of Non-negative Matrix Factorization and their application to Bayesian inference
Sep 28, 2026Naoki Hayashi, Yota Maeda, Yasushi EsakiNonnegative Matrix Factorization Spectral Norm
Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc.
ICMAPE: In-Context Multiagent Pure Exploration
Sep 27, 2026Xinyi Hu, Alessio Russo, Aldo PacchianoMulti-Agent Planning Stochastic Exploration
Boston University · Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard
Future Information-Directed Sampling for Bayesian Nonstationary Bandits
Sep 27, 2026Yichen Song, Alessio Russo, Aldo PacchianoBandits Stochastic Exploration
Boston University · Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard
ViBR-WM: Visual Bayesian Regression for World Modeling
Sep 27, 2026Jifan Li, Ning NingWorld Models Future Video Prediction
Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843
A Statistical Perspective on Knowledge Distillation: Foundations, Classical Methods, and Large Language Model Extensions
Sep 27, 2026Luyang Fang, Haoran Lu, Jiazhang Cai +4Knowledge Distillation Residual Distillation
Department of Statistics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA · Department of Biostatistics, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02118, USA
Expected Hypervolume Maximization for Multiobjective Optimization under Uncertainties
Sep 17, 2026Victor TrapplerMulti-Objective Optimization Stochastic Optimization
Mines Saint-Étienne MSE, LIMOS, FAYOL-ENSMSE, FAYOL-ENSMSE · Departement GMI Institut Henri Fayol, Mines Saint-Etienne, Univ Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, UMR 6158 LIMOS F - 42023 Saint-Etienne France
Nationally Consistent, Locally Incomplete: A Bayesian Remote-Sensing Audit of Rooftop Photovoltaic Registries
Sep 14, 2026Gabriel Kasmi, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Laurent Dubus +1Photovoltaic Remote Sensing
Centre Observation Impacts Energie (O.I.E.), MINES Paris, Universit´e PSL, Sophia-Antipolis, France · R´eseau de Transport d’Electricit´e (RTE), Paris La D´efense, France · Lead contact +1
A Unifying Perspective on Probabilities as Model Predictions
Sep 9, 2026Benedikt HöltgenProbability Bayesian
Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam
Bayesian Matrix-Valued Graphs for Context-Dependent Multivariate Relationships
Sep 7, 2026Papri DeyProbabilistic Graphical Models Bayesian
Learning Informative Prior with Infinite-Dimensional Continuous Normalizing Flow for Bayesian Inverse Problem
Sep 3, 2026Yang Zhao, Junxiong Jia, Tao ZhouBayesian Inverse Problems Normalizing Flows
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China · Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
Consistency Without Alignment: Item-Sensitive Language Models Indistinguishable From Random
Sep 1, 2026Cris HuynhLarge Language Model Alignment Item Response Theory
Independent researcher
Enhancing Bayesian Optimization and Active Learning Through Kernel Diversity
Aug 25, 2026Heng Zhang, Haotian Xiang, Konstantinos D. Polyzos +2Bayesian Optimization Active Learning
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA · University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Bayesian adaptively-weighted ensembles for few-shot abdominal segmentation
Aug 6, 2026Abbas Al-Sabbagh, Shalom F. Mushtaq, Tomás M. da Silva +7Few-Shot Segmentation Semi-Supervised Medical Image Segmentation
Centre for Bioengineering, School of Engineering and Materials Science, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom · Digital Environment Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom · Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom +1
Private Generative Bootstrap via Blocking
Aug 3, 2026Jinwon Sohn, Veronika RočkováModel-Based Bootstrap Bayesian
Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
The Bayesian Reflex: A Predictive Coding Engine for Artificial Intelligence
Aug 1, 2026Sourabh BhattacharyaPredictive Coding Bayesian Neural Networks
Interdisciplinary Statistical Research Unit Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata
A Generalized-Bayes Perspective on Counterfactual Explanations: Posterior-Based Decision-Making and Evaluation
Jul 31, 2026Keita KinjoCounterfactual Explanation Bayesian
Faculty of Business, Kyoritsu Women’s University
Three-Photon Bayesian Imaging of Ortho-Positronium
Jul 30, 2026L. Raczynski, W. Krzemien, A. Coussat +5Single-Photon Avalanche Diode Positron Emission Tomography
National Centre for Nuclear Research, Department of Complex Systems, 05-400 Otwock, Poland · National Centre for Nuclear Research, Department of High Energy Physics, 05-400 Otwock, Poland · INSA-Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Inserm, CREATIS UMR 5220, U1294, F-69373, Lyon, France +1
Robust Wavelength Selection for Partial Least Squares Sugar Content Estimation Using Combinatorial Bayesian Optimization
Jul 30, 2026Mitsunobu Kanebako, Ami S. Koshikawa, Masaru Hitomi +4Least Squares Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Miyagi 980-8564, Japan · DIC Corporation, Tokyo 103-8233, Japan · Department of Physics, Institute of Science Tokyo, Tokyo 152-8551, Japan +2
ELECTRIC: Evidential Learning-Enhanced CT Reconstruction via Iterative Correction
Jul 27, 2026Ge WangImage Reconstruction Evidential Uncertainty
Department of Biomedical Engineering Department of Electrical, Computer and Systems Engineering Department of Computer Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, USA
Inverse Bayesian Inference for Extracting Lesion Dynamics from Longitudinal Spectral CT
Jul 25, 2026Lukas Förner, Melina Wördehoff, Julian Steffens +6Cone-Beam Computed Tomography Bayesian Inference
Dept. of diagnostic and interventional Radiology and Neuroradiology, University Hospital Augsburg, Germany · Digital Medicine, University Hospital Augsburg, Germany · Chair for Computer-Aided Medical Procedures and Augmented Reality, Technical University of Munich, Germany +5
Bayesian Complete-Pooling in Cross-Subject Classification for Motor Imagery Electroencephalogram
Jul 25, 2026Ethan DavisBrain-Computer Interface Electroencephalography
University of Washington, USA
Reliability-Aware Bayesian Optimization of 1310 nm PCSELs with FDTD Verification
Jul 23, 2026Jinglin Yu, Feiyang Wu, Longying Wen +3Nanophotonic Bayesian Optimization
School of Science and Engineering (SSE), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518172, China · Nick Holonyak Micro and Nanotechnology Laboratory, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
An Introduction to Bayesian and Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference with Machine Learning
Jul 23, 2026Maximilian Dax, Theo Heimel, Gilles LouppeBayesian Inference Bayesian
ELLIS Institute Tübingen, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen AI Center, Tübingen, Germany · CP3, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium · Montefiore Institute, University of Liège, Belgium
Adaptive Bayesian Online Learning via Expert Aggregation
Jul 22, 2026Jungbin Jun, Ilsang OhnLearning-Augmented Algorithms Bayesian
Department of Statistics Inha University Incheon, 22212, South Korea
Pitfalls and Remedies for Multi-Task Bayesian Optimization
Jul 10, 2026Carl Hvarfner, Sam Daulton, Max Balandat +1Bayesian Optimization Gaussian Process
Meta
How Many Initial Points Does Bayesian Optimization Need?
Jul 5, 2026Mujin Cheon, James Odgers, Dong-Yeun Koh +1Bayesian Optimization Thompson Sampling
Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST) · HayanMind Inc. · Technical University of Nuremberg (UTN) +3
A Bayesian Filtering Approach for Learning Lagrangian Dynamics from Noisy Measurements
Jun 30, 2026Kundan Kumar, Shreya Das, Simo SärkkäBayesian Filtering Lagrangian Methods
Transformer Architectures as Complete Bayes Processes: A Formal Proof in the Measure-Theoretic Kernel Framework
Jun 29, 2026Haobo YangTransformer Architectures Bayesian
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, SUSTech University
Bayesian Best-Arm Identification with Abstention: A Polynomial-to-Exponential Phase Transition
Jun 28, 2026Yuqi Huang, Yunlong Hou, Vincent Y. F. TanBayesian Token Budget Allocation
Department of Mathematics, National University of Singapore · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore
BaRA: Bayesian Adaptive Rank Allocation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning
Jun 28, 2026Zhibin Duan, Yuhong Wang, Jiahong Fu +3Model Fine-Tuning Bayesian
National Key Lab of Radar Signal Processing, Xidian University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710071, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectives
Jun 22, 2026Tom Rossa, Angus Phillips, Tom RainforthBayesian Experimental Design Bayesian
Department of Statistics University of Oxford
BLENDS: Bayesian Learning-Enhanced Deep Smoothing for GNSS-Denied Environments
Jun 21, 2026Nadav Cohen, Itzik KleinGlobal Navigation Satellite System Smoothing
The Hatter Department of Marine Technologies University of Haifa Haifa, Israel
Quantifying Theoretical AI Alignment Guarantees: Receiver-Utility Bounds in Bayesian Persuasion
Jun 20, 2026Eric Yachbes, Eva TardosArtificial Intelligence Alignment Persuasion
Cornell University, United States
BASIL: Bayesian Application for Scientific Iteration and Learning
Jun 19, 2026Kelvin P. Idanwekhai, Valeriia Kaneva, Stefano Menegatti +1Multi-Objective Optimization Prompt Optimization
Department of Chemistry, UNC Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA · Laboratory for Molecular Modeling (MML), UNC Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA · Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, NC State University, Raleigh, NC, USA +1
The Chandra-Gaia Catalog of Counterparts: Resolving ambiguous Gaia matches to X-ray sources in the Chandra Source Catalog using Machine Learning
Jun 17, 2026V. Samuel Pérez-Díaz, Vinay L. Kashyap, Joshua D. Ingram +6X-Ray Bayesian
Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian, 60 Garden St, Cambridge MA 02138, USA · Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 150 Western Ave, Allston, MA 02134, USA · Universidad del Rosario, School of Engineering, Science and Technology, Cll. 12C No. 6-25, Bogot´a, Colombia +5
BCL: Bayesian In-Context Learning Framework for Information Extraction
Jun 17, 2026Haoliang Liu, Chengkun Cai, Xu Zhao +7In-Context Learning Information Extraction
HiThink Research · University College London · University of Edinburgh +6
Structured Noise Adaptation for Sequential Bayesian Filtering with Embedded Latent Transfer Operators
Jun 12, 2026Naichang Ke, Pongpisit Thanasutives, Yoshinobu KawaharaBayesian Filtering State Estimation
The University of Osaka · RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP)
Phase Transitions in Attention: A Bayesian Theory of Copy Head Emergence
Jun 10, 2026Itay Lavie, Kirsten Fischer, Andrey Lekov +3Phase Transitions Emergence
Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91904, Israel · John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA · Institute for Advanced Simulation (IAS-6), Computational and Systems Neuroscience, Jülich Research Center, Jülich 52428, Germany +3
Synthics: Synthetic Physics-like Datasets for Machine Learning
Jun 4, 2026Jari VepsäläinenSynthetic Data Unified Path-Integral Update
Mechatronics Department of Energy and Mechanical Engineering School of Engineering Aalto University Finland
Generalized TV-- $\ell_p$ Structured Priors for Bayesian $T_1$ Mapping
Jun 3, 2026Disi Lin, Martin Berggren, Tommy LöfstedtBayesian Spatial Priors
Department of Computing Science, Ume˚a University, Sweden
Bayes-Sufficient Representations in Supervised Learning
Jun 2, 2026Vasileios SevetlidisPac-Bayesian Theory Bayesian
Athena Research Center, Kimmeria Campus, Xanthi, Greece · Democritus University of Thrace, Vas. Sofias Campus, Xanthi, Greece · International Hellenic University, Serres, Greece
Bayesian Tensor Decomposition with Diffusion Model Prior
Jun 2, 2026Zerui Tao, Qibin ZhaoTensor Decomposition Diffusion Priors
RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project (AIP), Tokyo, Japan.
ShaplEIG: Bayesian Experimental Design for Shapley Value Estimation
Jun 1, 2026David Rundel, Fabian Fumagalli, Maximilian Muschalik +2Shapley Value Bayesian Experimental Design
Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning, Munich, Germany · Institute for Informatics, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany +2
Bayesian meta-learning for modeling Alzheimer's disease progression
Jun 1, 2026Clara Hoffmann, Nadja KleinAlzheimer Readmission Prediction
Scientific Computing Center, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
MINTS: Minimalist Thompson Sampling
Jun 1, 2026Kaizheng WangThompson Sampling Bayesian
Department of IEOR and Data Science Institute, Columbia University.
Optimal-Point Variance Reduction For Bayesian Optimization With Regret Guarantee
May 31, 2026Shion TakenoBayesian Optimization Variance Reduction
1Nagoya University
iLoRA: Bayesian Low-Rank Adaptation with Latent Interaction Graphs for Microbiome Diagnosis
May 28, 2026Yang Song, Yixuan Zhang, Lingfa Meng +5Bacterial Colony Counting Bayesian Networks
Section of Health Data Science & AI, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark · University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark · Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA +1
Kernel Renormalization in Bayesian Deep Neural Networks: the Equivalent Wishart Ansatz in the Proportional Regime
May 28, 2026Paolo Baglioni, Christian Keup, Vincenzo Zimbardo +4Bayesian Neural Networks Renormalization Group
1INFN, Sezione di Milano Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano, Italy · 2INFN, Gruppo Collegato di Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 7/A, 43124 Parma, Italy · 3Dipartimento di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Informatiche, Universit`a degli Studi di Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze, 7/A 43124 Parma, Italy +2
On the Construction and Implications of Low-Loss Valleys in LoRA-based Bayesian Inference
May 28, 2026Daniel Dold, Emanuel Sommer, Julius Kobialka +2Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning Methods Anisotropic Loss Landscapes
HTWG Konstanz · LMU Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)
Thinned Mean Field Langevin Dynamics
May 27, 2026Zonghao Chen, Heishiro Kanagawa, François-Xavier Briol +2Mean-Field Limit Langevin Dynamics
University College London · 2Newcastle University · 3The Alan Turing Institute +1
Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertainty
May 25, 2026Jinwoo Go, Xiaoning Qian, Byung-Jun YoonBayesian Experimental Design Bayesian
Computing & Data Sciences, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY · Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX · Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
Generalized Evidential Deep Learning: From a Bayesian Perspective
May 25, 2026Yuanye Liu, Yibo Gao, Yuanyang Chen +1Evidential Uncertainty Uncertainty-Aware Classification
School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
MotionDPS: Motion-Compensated 3D Brain MRI Reconstruction
May 21, 2026Antonio Ortiz-Gonzalez, Erich Kobler, Lukas Schletter +1Magnetic Resonance Imaging Reconstruction Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Life and Medical Sciences Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany · Institute for Machine Learning, LIT AI Lab, Department of Virtual Morphology, Clinical Research Institute Medical AI, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Linz, Austria · German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE), Bonn, Germany +1
MedCRP-CL: Continual Medical Image Segmentation via Bayesian Nonparametric Semantic Modality Discovery
May 19, 2026Ziyuan GaoSemi-Supervised Medical Image Segmentation Replay-Based Continual Learning
University College London, London, United Kingdom
Bayesian Networks for Path-Based Sensors: Gathering Information and Path Planning in Communication Denied Environments
May 15, 2026Alkesh K. Srivastava, George P. Kontoudis, Donald Sofge +1Path Planning Bayesian Networks
University of Maryland, College Park, MD, US. · Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, US. · Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, US. +1
Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks
May 13, 2026Lingfei Kong, Haoran MaPrognostics Tumor
Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA · John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Allston, MA, USA
Bayesian In Vivo Tracking of Synapses using Joint Poisson Deconvolution and Diffeomorphic Registration
May 13, 2026Shashwat Kumar, Dominic M. Padova, Binish Narang +6Microscopy Synaptic Plasticity
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University · Department of Neuroscience, Johns Hopkins University · Kavli Neuroscience Discovery Institute, Johns Hopkins University +2

Sep 30, 2026, cs.CLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Bayesian Fine-tuning Yields Language Models that are as Bayesian as their Beliefs Allow

Polina Tsvilodub, Andreas Waldis, Linlu Qiu, Tal Linzen+1

University of Tübingen · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · New York University

Large Language Model Fine-Tuning Model Fine-Tuning Bayesian Bayesian Inference Journey

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Language models (LMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require reasoning about hidden variables from a few observations, for which Bayesian inference is the normatively correct solution. While supervised fine-tuning of an LM on the outputs of an optimal

\textit{Bayesian}

model leads to near-Bayesian behavior, standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on the true answers for the task falls short of it. But behavior alone does not tell us

\textit{why}

tuning on a

\textit{Bayesian}

or an

\textit{oracle}

(true answers) signal differs: whether the resulting LM represents Bayesian beliefs, acts on them, or turns them into a choice the way Bayes' rule does. To compare them, we formulate increasingly demanding requirements for an LM to count as a Bayesian decision maker, spanning its behavior, representations, and computations, and test them on a flight recommendation task. The Bayes-trained LM acts Bayesian, encodes quantities of Bayes' rule in its middle layers, and uses the encoded belief for the recommendation to a certain extent. The oracle-trained LM differs from it both in the beliefs it holds and whether it reads beliefs out into recommendations. Exchanging beliefs between the LMs transfers a part of the Bayesian advantage. Bayes fine-tuning thus installs usable Bayesian beliefs in an LM for reasoning under uncertainty in a way standard SFT on oracle answers cannot, highlighting the advantage of nuanced supervision.

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