Finance Domain

Production LLM-based financial sentiment analysis faces a structural cost trap: most queries are trivially classifiable, yet expensive cloud reasoners process them all, and the bill scales linearly with user count. We present TriAgent, a multi-agent committee stratified by contextual granularity -- a word-level lexicon (VADER), a sentence-level domain transformer (FinBERT), and a cross-sentence reasoner (Qwen2.5, 0.5B-14B-4bit, with Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5-mini cross-family checks). A three-way Semantic Divergence Index (SDI) measures pairwise disagreement across granularities and routes each query accordingly. Our central finding is the critic plateau: when the LLM is re-tasked as a critic over the smaller agents' outputs, F1 plateaus at ~0.87 across 1.5B-7B Qwen (bootstrap 95% CIs overlap), while a same-size 3-persona vote drops to F1=0.66, which is driven by granularity-stratified diversity. Three corollaries follow from the same SDI signal: (i) a Shared Consensus Dictionary on multilingual sentence-BERT answers 95% of Chinese queries from an English cache at F1=0.99 -- cross-border canonicalization at zero marginal cost; (ii) SDI doubles as a post-hoc LLM-hallucination detector at AUC=0.90; (iii) the SDI single-stage strategy attains the best risk-adjusted return (Sharpe=3.50) on a 20-ticker back-test, dominating both always-FinBERT (1.36) and always-LLM (0.11). At 10M-user scale, TriAgent saves $9.3M/year vs. a GPT-4o-mini baseline. Code, lexicons, and the SCD are released.

Financial statement fraud detection (FSFD) is crucial for market integrity but faces challenges from increasingly sophisticated schemes and under-utilized textual data in financial reports. Existing methods often rely on random data splits, leading to overoptimistic performance estimates that do not reflect real-world generalization to new companies or future periods. To address this recurring problem with the state of the art, we propose a robust FSFD framework leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to integrate both structured financial data and unstructured textual information from financial reports. We provide a more realistic evaluation through a novel and challenging benchmark task called Company-Isolated FSFD (CI-FSFD). We construct and make publicly available a comprehensive U.S. company dataset combining financial statements, summarized MD&A text, and fraud labels. Our approach achieves the best performance on the challenging CI-FSFD task, demonstrating the critical value of textual data and robust evaluation for reliable financial fraud detection.

Financial question answering over U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings requires retrieving and synthesizing heterogeneous evidence dispersed across long, standardized, and highly redundant disclosures. Existing retrieval-augmented and multi-agent systems typically derive retrieval queries directly from the user's question and rank candidates by semantic similarity. Together, these choices create prior-corpus misalignment: a mismatch between model priors and the target filings' structure, terminology, and evidence standards. As a result, query generation misses corpus-specific evidence, while semantic reranking favors topically similar but evidentially invalid false-positive chunks. We propose FinSAgent, an evidence-grounded multi-agent framework that reframes SEC filing QA as corpus-aligned retrieval planning and corrects both ends with a single principle: inject corpus-side conditioning wherever model priors would otherwise dominate. FinSAgent combines (1) role-specialized agents anchored to the mandated 10-K item structure, (2) database-aware query decomposition that conditions each agent's sub-queries on a lightweight, summary-level view of the local corpus, and (3) multi-path retrieval with a learned feature-gated reranker that separates evidential validity from semantic similarity. Across five offline financial QA benchmarks, FinSAgent improves retrieval coverage and answer correctness over strong single-agent and multi-agent baselines; in a three-arm randomized online experiment with 1,000 anonymous user ratings, it also receives higher scores than baselines.

Financial statements (FS) such as Balance Sheet (BS), Income Statement (IS) and Cash-flow Statement (CS) summarize the annual financial performance of a company. FS are widely used for evaluating corporate governance, credit appraisal, risk analysis, validate taxation, make investment decisions etc. Financial auditing is a complex and knowledge-intensive discipline whose one important aim is ensuring integrity, accuracy, fairness and absence of material misstatement in the published FS. Given the importance of FS, there are incentives to hide, omit or falsify information to misrepresent the true financial health of the company; e.g., reduce tax liabilities, or increase investor confidence. Given the complex, time-consuming and expertise-dependent nature of auditing, auditors would benefit from an AI-assisted system that automatically detects instances of misinformation in the given FS and identify likely sources of this misinformation in the financial data. In this paper, we present unsupervised techniques to identify misinformation in FS, and also generate explanations as to the financial variables that are likely sources of misinformation. The auditor can then explore in more detail the associated data sources and business processes to validate these suggestions. A crucial feature of our approach is the use of past corpus of FS and associated audit reports to generate insights, which help in providing assistance. We demonstrate the efficacy of these techniques on a large corpus of 11,460 FS over 5 years and associated audit reports. This paper integrates and adds more novel contributions over the previously reported research (Shinde et al., 2022)\cite{SVAP22}, (Vaishampayan et al., 2022)\cite{VSPP22}, (Pawar et al., 2023)\cite{PAPV23}, which we have used as the foundation for our AI-assisted Auditor Assistance system.

Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored. We extend a supervised lexicon-learning approach to 10-K filings and their Item 1A risk-factor sections, training sentiment scores against both return and volatility labels at three levels of aggregation: sector, portfolio, and individual firm. Across 1,383 filings from 94 Nasdaq-100 technology constituents (2006--2023), we evaluate the resulting twelve sentiment metrics on classification accuracy, correlation with realised market outcomes, and qualitative lexical content. Full-filing text produces more accurate sentiment at the sector and portfolio level for both targets, but this reverses at the individual-firm level, where the narrower Item 1A section performs better -- an effect we attribute to the interaction between document volume and the amount of independent training signal available at each level of aggregation. A Loughran-McDonald dictionary baseline is consistently, strongly negatively correlated with price at every level tested, underscoring the value of a supervised approach for regulatory disclosure text. These findings, and the design choices they motivate, establish the sentiment-generation methodology underlying a subsequent, larger-scale, multi-source system.

Deep research agents are increasingly used to produce long-form financial reports, yet large-scale evaluation remains bottlenecked by the need for human experts to define and execute high-quality rubrics. We address this problem by proposing a scalable pipeline for generating high-quality rubrics without human experts in the final loop. We build a financial deep research benchmark from 104 real-world user queries and automatically synthesize 14,450 query-specific candidate rubrics from model-generated reports. To justify removing human experts from rubric execution, we compare rubric judgments from three human experts with those from a three-LLM judge panel on a sampled subset, and show that LLM-based evaluation is sufficiently consistent with human evaluation to replace it for large-scale rubric screening, including 98.67% label-level agreement on jointly unanimous items. We then derive consensus-derived gold rubrics through two filters: a strict consistency filter, which keeps a rubric only if the three LLM judges unanimously agree on every report under the same query, and a distinguishability filter, which keeps a rubric only if it assigns at least one majority-yes and at least one majority-no label across the evaluated systems. This process retains 3,687 consistency-passed rubrics, of which 2,600 remain distinguishable and form the final set of consensus-derived gold rubrics. Using this final rubric set, we obtain clearly differentiated rankings across 10 deep research systems, with item-level pass rates ranging from 58.58% to 22.23%. More broadly, because the pipeline removes human-expert execution from rubric generation and evaluation, it is naturally scalable for benchmark evaluation, automatic system comparison, and future studies of evaluation-driven system improvement.

Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets. An early LoRA adapter in this project appeared to reach roughly 80% directional accuracy; we show this is not evidence of skill. Over a long horizon in a rising market, a trivial "always-up" rule attains comparably high accuracy without using the input at all. To separate genuine skill from this base-rate artifact, we build a reproducible, frozen-data benchmark with expanding walk-forward folds, a stratified held-out-ticker split, honest baselines (zero-shot TimesFM, always-up, random-walk, persistence, AR(1)), and paired significance tests (McNemar, Diebold-Mariano) under Benjamini-Hochberg FDR control. We apply the identical method to two universes -- a tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 and a broad S&P 500 -- reporting excess accuracy over the always-up base rate. Three findings replicate. First, when the historical ~80% condition is recreated, the high number is a base rate of ~0.70 that the fine-tuned model scores below. Second, pooled LoRA shows no directional skill over the base rate at any horizon on either universe (negative at the six-month horizon). Third, per-sector specialization is significantly worse than a single pooled adapter (Diebold-Mariano p<0.001 on held-out stocks at h=128). Fine-tuning's only measurable benefit is a statistically significant reduction in point-forecast error relative to zero-shot TimesFM, which nonetheless does not beat naive baselines and confers no tradeable directional edge. The contribution is methodological: a defensible, fully seeded protocol that prevents the base-rate trap, together with the replicated negative result it produces.

Large language model (LLM) trading agents show promising performance in equity markets, yet remain narrowly focused on US equities with little evidence from live deployment. We present Fin-Analyst, a hybrid agent for FinMMEval 2026 Task 3: an eight-specialist LLM pipeline over news, SEC filings, fundamentals, analyst forecasts, technical indicators, and social sentiment, aggregated by a Meta-Agent for Tesla (TSLA), and a lightweight rule based three-signal vote for Bitcoin (BTC). On the final official leaderboard (accessed 2026-07-05), Fin-Analyst ranks first of all agents on TSLA with a +13.51% return, +28.33 points over Buy-and-Hold (Sharpe 4.10, 88% win rate), while the BTC vote ends flat yet well above a sharply falling baseline. Relative to the interim performance, the asset ranking reversed, indicating that short live windows yield volatility-sensitive rankings. Ablation identifies event-driven 8-K disclosures as the most influential TSLA signal. Error analysis shows that the memoryless agents repeat wrong calls for days at a time, and that the fixed-threshold BTC rules lost money by trading on noise in a sideways market while the LLM pipeline gained under similar conditions, motivating a memory-aware, LLM-based successor for both assets.

Large language models (LLMs) in financial applications fail most consequentially when they are confidently wrong. Hedged, uncertain answers invite scrutiny, whereas confident errors silently degrade downstream decisions without warning. We ask how reliably such confidently wrong answers, or confident hallucinations, can be detected from a model's internal activations, and whether those activations carry information beyond its observable outputs. We train linear probes on the residual stream and evaluate them on two established question-answering (QA) benchmarks built from real filings, FinQA and TAT-QA. Behavioral confidence is measured as the agreement among eight resampled answers to the same question, and probe effectiveness is compared against baselines, such as token log-probabilities and the model's own True/False self-assessment of its answer. Our findings show that among confident answers, those for which all eight resamples agree, 15-23% are wrong on FinQA. There the probes have a significant advantage over baseline methods in detecting hallucinations, holding 0.68-0.77 AUROC while the best baselines fall to 0.55-0.63, across Qwen3-8B, Llama-3.1-8B, and Gemma-2-9B. Our results suggest that probing can be a cost-effective triage mechanism for routing LLM answers to human review and quality control procedures in high-stakes financial applications.

Large language models (LLMs) based agents are beginning to participate in portfolio construction and market analysis, where decisions must be justified under evolving information and risk constraints. Current assessment practice, however, remains poorly aligned with this setting: many studies rely on static examinations or report only terminal portfolio returns, while the intermediate evidence, analyst judgments, and execution steps that produced those returns stay largely invisible. We introduce NextFund, an evaluation platform that makes financial-agent behavior observable under live market conditions. The platform couples time-consistent market access, coordinated multi-agent analysis, and persistent logging of the full decision path from observation to trade. Through an interactive Trading Arena, users can compare models across markets, inspect equity curves, and drill from leaderboard outcomes down to individual justifications. We present NextFund on Hong Kong, U.S., and China A-share equities, illustrating how inspectable decision histories enable fairer benchmarking and more actionable diagnosis. Our demo is available at https://paradoox.cn/nextfund/.

In this study, we examine the opportunities brought by Large Language Models (LLMs) to various aspects of fundamental analysis of companies based on their reports as well as data and documents describing macroeconomic situation like GDP and inflation changes as well as documents filled to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which can be found in EDGAR. We were preprocessing those data and than sending via API to gpt-4o model in a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) like regime. We prepared as well a document describing an exemplar investor knowledge based on Kitchin cycles. We were scanning data important for analysis of 9 companies for 4 weeks. Using LLM we were producing automatic briefs about them. They were sent to nine participants who are individual investors to evaluate usefulness of such approach to data analysis.

Form 8-K filings are the primary channel through which U.S. public companies disclose material events, but the SEC item codes attached to them are coarse: a single item spans routine administrative changes and chief executive departures, and many of the most market-moving disclosures fall into a catch-all item. Large language models make fine-grained labelling feasible at corpus scale, but only if the labels can be traced to the source text and shown to be reliable. We present a two-stage system that tags 8-K disclosures against a three-tier taxonomy of 119 event types. The first stage constrains output to valid taxonomy entries and anchors every tag to a verbatim quote via fuzzy n-gram validation; the second re-grades each cited quote against the category definition to produce a quality score. Applying the system to 292,984 filings from 2022 to 2026 yields 601,088 grounded event tags, which we release. Over 5,125 stratified tags, an LLM judge finds precision rises monotonically with the quality score, from 12% to 96%, while unsupported tags fall from 8% to near zero. Ablation shows the score is calibrated only when assigned in a dedicated second pass. An event study on unsigned abnormal returns confirms, without any language model, that the taxonomy separates economically distinct events sharing an item code.

Financial markets are noisy, non-stationary, and high-dimensional, making it difficult to discover predictive and robust trading signals. Alpha discovery has evolved from manual factor design to machine learning, evolutionary search, and recent LLM-based frameworks, improving the efficiency of factor generation, search, and evaluation. However, existing methods still mostly automate isolated steps, rather than functioning as end-to-end quant researchers that can absorb external knowledge, close the hypothesis-to-code validation loop, and learn from accumulated discovery feedback. To fill this gap, we introduce XAlpha, a memory-driven AI Quant Researcher for continuous hypothesis-to-code alpha discovery. XAlpha maintains a multi-source research memory system that integrates report-grounded financial knowledge with discovery feedback from prior generations and research cycles. Guided by this memory system, a Macro Brain plans research themes and selects suitable Archetypes; a Micro Brain transforms the planned hypothesis pool into executable factor code and verifies ex-ante tri-alignment among the hypothesis idea, code logic, and financial plausibility; and a Cross Brain consolidates empirical outcomes into generation-level feedback, cycle-level summaries, and archetype-level research cues for future exploration. In this way, XAlpha turns alpha mining from isolated factor generation into a closed-loop research process that continuously reads, hypothesizes, implements, validates, reflects, and evolves. Experiments on CSI300 show that XAlpha achieves stronger overall alpha discovery performance than representative baselines.

Public LLM leaderboards optimise for global average performance and do not capture the specific cognitive demands of financial-services work: a model that leads on MMLU-Pro may underperform on document-grounded compliance reasoning, and a coding leader may handle multi-turn customer interactions poorly. We present a meta-benchmarking framework that organises 452 publicly reported benchmarks into 41 O*NET Generalized Work Activities and aggregates those into 38 BIAN banking business domains spanning sales, operations, risk, and support work. A multiplicative weighting scheme (discrimination x coverage x recency), computed over a rolling model window, rewards benchmarks that still separate the best models, are widely reported, and remain in active use, suppressing saturated legacy tests automatically. These weights scale the K-factor in a pairwise Elo tournament, producing cross-benchmark-comparable work-activity scores without raw score normalisation; business-domain scores are weighted averages of the constituent work-activity Elos. We demonstrate the framework on a point-in-time public snapshot covering 288 models across 25 organisations as of June 2026, and describe the methodology, full taxonomy, design decisions, and limitations with the aim of making the approach reproducible for institutions facing similar selection and governance challenges.

In recent years, large language models have achieved remarkable success and have seen growing adoption in financial applications. At the same time, explainability remains critical in finance, a domain characterized by high stakes and strict regulatory requirements. Although numerous methods have been proposed to explain black box machine learning models, the majority of these approaches are designed for general purpose tasks and do not incorporate domain specific knowledge. In this work, we study the explainability of financial textual data modeled by large language models through the lens of the Shapley value. Specifically, we investigate whether Shapley based attributions align with established financial domain knowledge. Through rigorous theoretical analysis and extensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that Shapley values can yield explanations that are consistent with financial reasoning and can offer meaningful insights into the model's behavior in text based financial applications.

This project introduces the CRISTAL Method (Coherent Reliable Intentional Synthesis of Truthful Analysis Logic), a neurosymbolic framework for automating complex analysis workflows, with fundamental investment analysis as a primary use case. This domain poses major challenges: high structural uncertainty, noisy and subjective data, tight attention budgets, and the need for justified, reproducible decisions. Human analysts often struggle in this domain due to cognitive biases and limitations, suggesting significant value in automation. But while LLM-based agents have been proposed as analytical aids, their limitations -- poor numerical reasoning, unawareness of uncertainty, and lack of reproducibility -- hinder their effectiveness in this context. CRISTAL addresses these gaps through a principled blend of statistical model synthesis, continuous learning, and active learning. Starting from a natural-language prior knowledge curriculum, CRISTAL builds a dynamic, interpretable probabilistic program that enables full Bayesian inference, including uncertainty quantification and budget-aware data acquisition. CRISTAL continually refines its world model during analysis, leveraging LLMs for code synthesis and learning. We validate CRISTAL on a novel benchmark of synthetic equities with rich financial and textual data. On a company classification task, CRISTAL achieves Bayes-optimal accuracy with just 5 examples and a 5-second budget, outperforming state-of-the-art LLMs that plateau around 40% accuracy even with order-of-magnitude more input data and compute.

Demand for personalized financial advice is growing, yet current LLM-based advisors often fail to provide consistent and specialized guidance. Simple persona prompts rarely specify how a financial advisor should reason and often drift toward generic recommendations. We propose Fund2Persona, a framework that builds financial-advisor personas from real-world fund disclosures and refines them through an actor-scorer-patcher loop. We test whether the resulting personas can predict held-out portfolio changes and produce commentary consistent with fund managers' own explanations. They outperform generic baselines on both tasks. We further study two downstream diagnostics: market-scenario generation, where persona retrieval broadens plausible investment views, and multi-turn investor-advisor conversations, where matched personas give more specific and useful advice than a generic advisor. These results suggest that real fund data can bring manager-specific investment expertise to LLM advisors rather than merely changing an LLM's surface style.

Earnings announcements release two types of information sequentially: quantitative surprise (numeric earnings-per-share (EPS)/revenue versus analyst estimate) arrives first in press releases and financial news, processed by algorithmic traders within minutes; qualitative language (management tone, guidance, question-and-answer (Q&A) credibility) arrives 30-90 min later in the earnings conference call transcript (ECT), requiring human interpretation overnight. Financial economists have studied quantitative surprise for 50 years; natural language processing (NLP) researchers have studied qualitative ECT signals for a decade. Despite studying the same event, the two communities used incompatible frameworks: different targets (return vs. volatility), trading setups (long top-decile and short bottom-decile vs. trade-all), and metrics (return spread between top and bottom 20% (Q5-Q1) vs. mean squared error (MSE)), making direct comparison and connection challenging. We bridge these communities with EarningsInOne, the first corpus aligning earnings news, ECTs, and intraday and next-day prices across SP 1500 (broad U.S. equity universe, 2022-2025). Applying unified trading and evaluation tools to both signal types, we confirm a clean speed separation, fast numbers, slow language: quantitative surprise peaks at announcement and is largely eliminated by the next market open; qualitative ECT sentiment peaks on the next trading day, real and tradeable, but hidden under prior transcript-based evaluation that optimised sign-agnostic volatility with pointwise MSE.

When firms deploy autonomous AI, they must decide how much work to leave to the system and how much to keep workers engaged. This decision affects current output and future human capital. We develop a parsimonious two-period model in which AI may outperform the worker when it functions, but may fail with positive probability. A firm chooses worker engagement; engagement lowers current output for below-benchmark workers, but changes future skill through learning and erosion. We distinguish two dimensions of AI progress: capability, the system's output when it works, and reliability, the probability that it works. In a single-firm benchmark, engagement is valuable only as fallback investment. The firm engages the least-skilled workers most, because they have the largest skill gaps and are least costly to bring toward a useful fallback level. With worker mobility, engagement also affects labor-market sorting: workers prefer jobs that build more valuable skill trajectories. This sorting motive targets higher-skill workers near the AI frontier, where skill gains are more valuable and engagement is less costly. Mobility can therefore reverse the engagement pattern, shifting investment from the least-skilled toward the most-skilled workers below the AI benchmark. Mobility also reshapes how AI progress affects engagement: greater capability raises engagement by increasing the value of the skill trajectory a firm offers, whereas greater reliability can raise or lower it because it reduces fallback need while also changing learning opportunities. Under worker mobility, human-AI work design becomes a problem of human-capital investment, in which allocating work today shapes future skill.

Venture capital (VC) investment decisions face distinct challenges, such as multi-source heterogeneous data, non-stationary time series, and the demand for explainable predictions in high-stakes, low-data settings. To overcome these issues, we introduce \textbf{FinInvest-GTCN}, a Graph-Temporal-Causal Network that redefines the task from content recommendation to quantitative risk-return assessment. This architecture combines a relational graph encoder to capture the investment ecosystem's topology, a multi-scale temporal fusion module to handle long-term dependencies and non-stationarity, and a causal decision head that generates risk-adjusted predictions with interpretable causal attributions. A core innovation is the Meta-Causal Adaptation (MCA) strategy, which facilitates robust fine-tuning for new, data-scarce sectors by aligning updates with causally-plausible structures derived from meta-pretraining. Comprehensive experiments on proprietary VC datasets show that FinInvest-GTCN delivers state-of-the-art results, markedly lowering the primary Risk-Adjusted Mean Squared Error (RA-MSE) to 2.51 from a baseline of 3.05 and boosting the cumulative return of a simulated portfolio by 18.7%. Ablation studies underscore the essential role of each component, while additional analyses confirm the model's stability, interpretability, and enhanced adaptability. This work pioneers a data-driven, explainable framework for investment decision support.

This paper describes team HSA_CORAL's submission to the FinCausal 2026 shared task on extracting cause-effect relations from financial narratives via extractive question answering in English and Spanish. We compare three modeling families: (i) encoder-only token tagging with multilingual BERT, (ii) encoder-decoder generation with multilingual BART, and (iii) decoder-only LLMs (Llama 3.1 and GPT variants) using prompt refinement, few-shot demonstrations, and supervised fine-tuning. Across settings, prompting and few-shot examples yield competitive performance, while supervised fine-tuning provides the largest gains. Our best system, GPT-4.1 Mini fine-tuned on combined English and Spanish training data, achieves a tied highest score on the English subtask (score 4.8140) and ranks third on Spanish (score 4.7753) under the shared task's LLM-as-a-judge metric. Overall, the results highlight the value of task-specific adaptation and multilingual fine-tuning for cross-lingual transfer in financial causality QA.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as investment research assistants, yet no benchmark tests whether they can accurately reconstruct and apply the specific procedural decision frameworks of expert investors. We introduce InvestPhilBench, a multi-layer benchmark spanning eight cognitive tiers, from principle identification (L1) to novel framework extrapolation (L8). The v0.6 release comprises 118 primary-source-verified principle cards, 25 decision-framework cards with explicit topology metadata, and 243 QA questions (197 dev / 46 held-out test). For reproducible scoring at scale we introduce the Benchmark Automated Scoring Pipeline (BASP), five algorithmic metrics, the Failure Mode Detection Protocol (FMDP) covering six failure modes, and Gate Reconstruction Accuracy (GRA), a per-gate metric for questions with gold reasoning programs. This release is primarily a benchmark-and-methodology contribution: its empirical study -- a four-model sanity wave on the 188-question development split (closed-book) -- is deliberately preliminary and stress-tests the metric design rather than ranking models. The wave shows a sharp provider-tier split (BASP 0.906 vs. 0.438), though these mixed-judge numbers are confounded upper bounds. The central methodological finding survives the caveat: the BASP composite saturates at the frontier (Claude L4 = 0.932) while GRA still exposes a procedural deficit (frontier L4 GRA ~0.77, L7 GRA 0.57-0.62) -- composite scoring rewards fluent prose and hides the procedural gap. On a 100-item expert-annotated gold set, the automated BASP composite tracks the human reference at Pearson r = 0.72 (MAE = 0.10). v0.6 also implements a unified judge and true model-in-the-loop retrieval/oracle conditions; the de-confounded multi-model leaderboard and full three-condition run are v1.0 deliverables.

Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text. A benchmark over these four signals is hard to build because finance violates four assumptions of time-series evaluation: text must be gated by its publication date to prevent look-ahead, quarterly fundamentals are reported with a one- to ninety-day lag, filing text is partly redundant with the numerical statement fields it accompanies, and macroeconomic regimes leak across calendar splits. No public benchmark addresses all four signals jointly. MacroLens covers 4,416 U.S. small- and micro-cap equities over 2021-2026. Seven tasks share one point-in-time panel of prices, 46.8M XBRL accounting facts, 53 macroeconomic series, 295,860 SEC filings, and 215,882 news articles, plus a scenario layer of 1,130 macroeconomic events across 49 types automatically detected and rendered as natural language. Tasks span contextual forecasting, public and private valuation, statement generation from fundamentals and descriptions, scenario-conditioned returns, and real-estate valuation. We evaluate 19 methods across six families spanning naive heuristics through time-series foundation models, fine-tuned LLM-based time-series models, and zero-shot large language models (LLMs), plus a five-step feature-context ablation on two frontier LLMs and a gradient-boosted baseline. MacroLens is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/DeepAuto-AI/MacroLens.

Financial time series forecasting presents structural challenges absent from standard benchmarks. Log-returns are non-stationary, exhibit exceptionally low signal-to-noise (SNR) ratios, and are governed by regime-dependent temporal dependencies. We identify a key limitation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) time series models in financial settings. A fixed context window is mismatched to the time-varying optimal look-back of non-stationary price processes. We propose the Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network (RAVEN), a Mixture-of-Experts framework designed to adaptively determine the temporal context for each input sample. Instead of relying on a fixed look-back horizon, RAVEN constructs a hierarchy of nested contiguous windows whose lengths are determined by the data itself. Specifically, RAVEN scores patches by learned importance in reverse chronological order and applies the Cumulative Importance Thresholding (CIT) mechanism to derive nested prefix windows, each routed to a scale-specialized expert. A Global Compressed Representation (GCR) branch runs in parallel over the full context, preserving global temporal coherence that local experts cannot guarantee. Because the nested routing induces structured overlap among expert inputs, we introduce a Correlation-Aware Weighting (CAW) to align variable-length expert outputs and penalize pairwise cosine similarity prior to aggregation. Experiments on cumulative log-return prediction (HS300, S&P500) and fund sales forecasting demonstrate that RAVEN achieves SOTA performances, improves Pearson correlation by 9.2% on HS300 and 20.2% on S&P500, and reduces MSE by 18.2% on fund sales forecasting, while achieving the best results in 14 of 16 metrics on four PEMS traffic benchmarks.

Finance Agent v2 (by Vals AI) has emerged as the reference benchmark for evaluating both Anthropic Claude and OpenAI ChatGPT frontier language models on financial tasks. However, it narrowly deals with periodic reporting from publicly traded companies (SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings), and its agentic harness relies on naive, unenriched chunk retrieval. Neither the task design nor the retrieval approach addresses the distinct challenges of IPO due diligence. SEC S-1 filings combine historical financial statements, governance structures, pro forma and common-control accounting treatments, capital-formation narratives, and underwriting-sensitive risk disclosures within substantially longer documents than typical periodic filings. That is why we introduce IPO Finance Agent, which extends the Finance Agent v2 framework along two directions: task domain and retrieval architecture. During our experiments, the original Finance Agent v2 harness basically failed to deliver any output related to the SpaceX S-1 filing, due to document length. We therefore had to improve the agentic harness with contextual retrieval, a more realistic and industry-standard approach for long documents. We also built a dataset of 1,000 IPO-diligence questions, and publicly release 70 questions on the SpaceX (SPCX) S-1 filing to support reproducibility, while the remainder are held private to guard against benchmark contamination. In addition, we introduce an evaluator-optimizer pipeline to automatically generate evaluation rubrics for the benchmark: candidate facts are extracted from model answers, consolidated into draft criteria, then automatically audited for omissions, hallucinations, mistiered items, and redundancy, with LLM feedback driving iterative repair, targeted enrichment, and deduplication. Human experts only review final rubrics before deployment. Results show that the best-performing evaluated model, Zhipu GLM-5.2, reaches 79.8% accuracy, and the most cost-efficient model on the resulting Pareto frontier, Xiaomi MiMo-2.5 Pro, reaches slightly lower accuracy (77.2%) at 0.05 USD per query, while exceeding the current Finance Agent v2 leaderboard ceiling, Google Gemini 3.5 Flash at 57.9% for 2.51 USD per query, and undercutting even FABv2's cheapest entry (MiniMax M3: 48.3% at 0.32 USD) on cost-efficiency. Code and data are released on GitHub https://github.com/benstaf/ipoagent

Large language models are increasingly used to answer questions over annual reports, earnings decks, and analyst notes, yet their outputs remain difficult to verify in high-stakes financial workflows. A fluent answer can blend directly grounded statements, weak synthesis, and unsupported claims across narrative text, tables, and charts. We present EvidenceLens, a visual analytics prototype that treats financial question answering as a claim-evidence alignment problem. The system decomposes an answer into atomic claims, summarizes support composition and confidence, support gaps, and coordinates claim-level inspection with source passages, table cells, and chart regions. Its core visual representation is a multimodal claim-evidence matrix that makes coverage, contradiction, and modality imbalance immediately visible. To support reproducibility, we also specify a JSON-based artifact schema, a lightweight multimodal alignment pipeline, and a deterministic review-priority ranking that maps backend signals into an auditable visual structure. Through representative report-auditing scenarios, we show how EvidenceLens helps analysts distinguish grounded claims from overconfident synthesis that conventional chat interfaces flatten.

Financial chart question answering in regulated settings demands more than accuracy: practitioners must know which answers to trust before acting on them, and many institutions cannot send client data to external model providers. Yet existing chart-QA agents are accuracy-focused and opaque, and most assume proprietary API access; to our knowledge, none combines auditability with on-premise deployability without significant accuracy compromise. We present AgentFinVQA, a multi-agent pipeline that decomposes each query into planning, OCR, legend grounding, visual inspection, and verification, recording every step in a traceable Model Evaluation Packet (MEP) per sample. On FinMME, AgentFinVQA improves $+7.68$ pp over a primary-backbone matched zero-shot baseline with a proprietary backbone (Gemini-3 Flash; 71.24% vs. 63.56%, McNemar $p \approx 1.1 \times 10^{-16}$), and $+4.84$ pp with open-weights Qwen3.6-27B-FP8 served locally. The verifier's verdict also serves as a useful confidence signal (68.2% vs. 55.6% exact accuracy on confirmed vs. revised answers), enabling human-in-the-loop review routing. Error analysis shows that question misunderstanding, legend confusion and extraction error account for nearly two-thirds of failures and are the categories least detected by the verifier, identifying clear directions for future work. Together these results show that auditable, on-premise financial chart QA is practical and that the open-weights system keeps most of the accuracy gains while enabling full data residency. We release our code to support reproducible evaluation.

Loan origination is the process by which a lender creates a new loan, from application and underwriting through approval and funding. This process serves a critical role in evaluating the eligibility and level of risk posed by an applicant. Recently, firms have begun using mortgage loan agents to augment human loan officers, despite a lack of any public benchmark. To fill this gap, we present MortarBench, a loan origination agent benchmark. MortarBench uses a financial data synthesis and mutation pipeline to generate examples with broad edge case coverage that match real-world distributions and questions. We find that state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) perform poorly, with closed-source models achieving at most 77.1% exact match accuracy. We also discover systematic biases in LLM perception of foreignness related to non-English names. Noting these weaknesses, we introduce CRIT, a confidence calibration framework. Our method increases accuracy to 80.5% while improving risk management steering and reducing bias.

Recent empirical work shows that semantically equivalent paraphrases can fool financial sentiment classifiers: although a paraphrase remains close to the original under a strong reference embedding, it may shift the target model's representation enough to change the predicted class. Existing robustness theory either assumes a single-model threat model or focuses mainly on empirical attack algorithms. We develop a continuous local model of semantic paraphrase perturbations that captures this two-model structure. We show that the worst-case local displacement of the target representation, subject to a proxy-model budget, is governed by the largest generalised eigenvalue of a matrix pencil $(A,B)$ constructed from the Jacobians of the two embedding maps. The resulting attackability index $λ^*(x)$ is intrinsic to the local paraphrase geometry and the chosen embedders, yields a closed-form prediction-flip condition for affine readouts, and supports conservative population and finite-sample attackability certificates. For uniform control over classes of affine readouts, we derive a distribution-free VC bound for binary attackability indicators and a scale-sensitive margin bound based on an attackability-adjusted margin that subtracts a local geometric penalty from the standard classifier margin. We also connect the continuous theory to discrete paraphrase search, identify an asymmetry between successful and unsuccessful finite searches, and give a covering condition under which the discrete and continuous settings agree. Finally, we propose an empirical verification framework using soft-token relaxations and generated paraphrase sets to assess the local eigenvalue geometry, prediction-flip condition, and finite-search approximation on a deployed financial-text classifier.

Large instruction-following models are powerful but costly to deploy, particularly in finance, where labelled data are limited by confidentiality and expert annotation cost. We present an efficient framework for financial sentiment analysis through distillation with synthetic data, transferring knowledge from a large instruction-tuned teacher to compact student models. The framework is designed for low-resource conditions, where a small set of real examples are collected and labelled by hand. The framework then clusters the examples and uses the clusters to select seeds for generating synthetic examples via structured few-shot prompting. Experiments show that clustering-based seed selection yields more representative synthetic data than random sampling, enabling compact models to achieve strong performance with minimal supervision. Notably, on a more complex and noisy text domain, the compact model trained on the complete synthetic-seed corpus even outperforms the teacher model, while remaining competitive on formal text. The framework provides a practical route toward resource-efficient domain adaptation in financial NLP with minimal human labelling effort.

As high-quality public web corpora become increasingly exhausted, clean long-context documents have become a scarce and expensive source of training data for large language models (LLMs). Existing long-context corpora are often proprietary and costly to acquire, synthetically generated, or concentrated in narrow domains such as programming. We introduce the Stanford EDGAR Filings Dataset (SEFD), an open reconstruction of SEC filings into layout-faithful MultiMarkdown for financial language modeling and evaluation. SEFD makes audited financial statements, risk disclosures, ownership reports, accounting notes, and market-moving event filings usable as long-context pretraining data and as a basis for financial reasoning, forecasting, compliance, and document understanding. The resulting corpus is token-efficient, model-ready, and has less than 0.1% overlap with Common Crawl-derived corpora. We release SEFD-v1, a 152B-token initial public snapshot, and provide corpus-level analyses of a larger 18.5M-filing archive estimated at 550B tokens. We further introduce two SEFD-derived benchmarks: EDGAR-Forecast, which evaluates filing-grounded numerical forecasting after model knowledge cutoffs, and EDGAR-OCR, which evaluates transcription of complex financial tables.

Financial multimodal reasoning requires agents to coordinate numerical computation, retrieval, visual interpretation, and temporal grounding across heterogeneous evidence sources. Existing tool-augmented agents improve execution fidelity, yet remain largely stateless across episodes, repeatedly rediscovering reasoning strategies and failure patterns. In high-stakes financial settings, this leads to unreliable tool routing, noisy retrieval, and hallucination-prone reasoning. We present FinAcumen, a financial reasoning agent framework centered on selective experience memory for tool-augmented multimodal reasoning. FinAcumen accumulates financially grounded reasoning experience from prior trajectories, distilling successful strategies and failure-derived cautionary rules into a persistent memory bank. During inference, retrieved experiences condition reasoning only when semantic relevance exceeds a calibrated threshold, while irrelevant memory is explicitly suppressed through a fallback mechanism. A deterministic financial tool environment further grounds numerical computation, retrieval, visual decoding, and answer verification.Across four financial multimodal reasoning benchmarks, FinAcumen consistently improves a frozen 8B vision-language model over finance-specialized models and approaches leading proprietary general-purpose models. Further analysis shows that selective experience activation improves reasoning reliability under retrieval uncertainty. Our code is available at https://github.com/CamelliaLilium/FinAcumen.

Existing financial-NLP benchmarks mostly evaluate prepared artifacts such as filings, tables, or extracted values. Real accounting begins earlier: source documents must be reconciled into cited journal entries, aggregated into a balance sheet, and checked for contradictions. We introduce FinBalance, a multi-document accounting reconciliation benchmark built from source-document bundles across eight industries, three period types, and five difficulty levels. Human-authored business scenarios, accounting policies, tax/FX treatments, document schemas, distractors, and inconsistency templates are composed by a deterministic generator whose ledger produces journal entries,balance sheets, and 23 inconsistency-code labels. On a 710-record evaluation split, six contemporary LLMs reach at most 46% exact final-balance-sheet accuracy. Four models show a 26-41 pp gap between BS_exact, the model's reported balance sheet, and BS_recon, the balance sheet obtained by replaying its entries through our ledger. Models often recover numerically plausible entries but fail to bind them to supporting documents and aggregate them consistently. Citation-pressure prompting barely changes document-linking errors, while ledger-feedback ablations substantially improve reported balance sheets and expose inconsistency-detection trade-offs. Expert finance reviewers validate the benchmark design and labels.

Transformers have shown remarkable success in sequence modeling, yet their direct application to financial time series remains challenging due to noisy signals, short-memory dynamics, and distributional shifts. This paper proposes a modified Transformer architecture for one-step stock index forecasting, combined with advanced learning-rate scheduling and a novel Shifted Data Augmentation (SDA) technique. We evaluate the proposed framework on two benchmark stock index datasets, VN30 and S&P 500. Experimental results demonstrate that cosine annealing with warmup consistently improves forecasting accuracy over the generalized inverse-power scheduler. Furthermore, SDA substantially reduces forecasting errors and run-to-run variability while improving robustness to hyperparameter selection. The combination of cosine annealing scheduling and SDA achieved the best performance on both datasets, indicating that data augmentation can play a more important role than increasing model complexity in Transformer-based financial forecasting. These findings provide a practical and computationally efficient approach for robust stock index forecasting in noisy financial environments.

Audit risk assessment increasingly benefits from combining heterogeneous evidence sources, yet existing approaches typically produce point predictions without quantifying how well different evidence streams agree. We propose UMAR (Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Agent Risk Assessment), a framework that employs three specialized agents: an MD&A Text Agent, a Financial Ratio Agent, and a CAM Agent, each producing independent risk scores with calibrated uncertainty estimates. An Uncertainty Aggregator based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory fuses these scores while explicitly measuring inter-agent conflict. We evaluate UMAR on a U.S. dataset of 3,200 firm-year observations from SEC 10-K filings (2019-2023), with financial restatement as the target label. Experimental results show that UMAR achieves an AUROC of 0.782 and a PR-AUC of 0.341, outperforming logistic regression, XGBoost, FinBERT, and single-agent and dual-agent LLM baselines. UMAR attains the lowest expected calibration error (ECE = 0.052) among all methods and identifies evidence-conflict patterns that correlate with actual restatement risk, offering auditors potentially actionable and interpretable risk signals.

Finance reporting is a natural proving ground for large language models, and the very-long-context capabilities of recent models across all sizes make rigorous evaluation in this domain an increasingly pressing need. Yet most public financial resources reduce the task to plain-text SEC 10-K filings paired with a handful of question-answer items. We release LEDGER (Long-context Evaluation of Documents for Grounded Extraction and Retrieval), a corpus of 4,999 digitized corporate annual reports - full documents with figures, tables, and narrative, not just regulatory filings. Each report is labeled with 31 consolidated financial KPIs to be extracted and linked to the market's reaction at the earnings date. From this data we derive three evaluation benchmarks spanning the difficulty spectrum: a pure page-level KPI retrieval task with TREC-style relevance judgments over 118,048 questions in natural language, a conversational "needle-in-a-haystack" single-value lookup, and a full KPI extraction task, both from long, numerically dense reports. We additionally provide human OCR-quality annotations with inter-annotator agreement and the complete extraction, validation, and scoring toolchain. We further demonstrate the dataset's research utility with a case study linking CEO-letter rhetoric to post-publication market impact.

Can financial news reliably predict short-term stock movements? Despite advances in large language models, this question remains unresolved. We revisit this problem using a zero-shot natural language processing framework, investigating whether models can extract actionable signals from financial news without domain-specific training. We design a structured pipeline that combines zero-shot natural language inference with temporal aggregation, explicitly modelling recency and event-dependent impact horizons when integrating information across articles. To address the need for transparency in high-stakes settings, we introduce a multi-layered explainability framework that links predictions to token-level, article-level, and aggregate evidence, and produces grounded natural language rationales. Across multiple models and prediction horizons, we find that zero-shot approaches consistently fail to outperform simple baselines, with particularly weak performance on negative movements, suggesting deeper structural limitations in mapping news sentiment to short-term price dynamics. However, explainability signals reliably distinguish between trustworthy and unreliable predictions, offering practical value even when accuracy is limited. These findings highlight the limits of zero-shot financial NLP and motivate a shift toward decision-support systems that prioritise transparency and uncertainty awareness. Code: https://github.com/alimert05/zero-shot-stock-xai

The rapid evolution of financial technology demands sophisticated artificial intelligence systems capable of handling diverse challenges across multiple domains simultaneously. This paper presents a groundbreaking unified framework that seamlessly integrates Proximal Policy Optimization for robo-advisory systems, advanced time-series prediction models for high-frequency trading, in-context learning mechanisms for dynamic investment advisory, game-theoretic approaches for competitive banking scenarios, and unified embeddings for cross-modal financial sentiment analysis. Our comprehensive framework addresses the critical gap in existing literature where these technologies have been developed in isolation, failing to leverage their synergistic potential. Through extensive experimentation across multiple financial datasets and real-world scenarios, we demonstrate that our integrated approach achieves superior performance compared to specialized single-domain systems. Specifically, our framework shows a 23.7% improvement in portfolio optimization metrics, reduces prediction error in high-frequency trading by 31.2%, enhances investment recommendation accuracy by 18.9%, optimizes competitive banking strategies with a 27.4% increase in Nash equilibrium convergence speed, and improves sentiment analysis accuracy by 15.6% through cross-modal fusion. The theoretical foundation of our work establishes convergence guarantees for the integrated optimization problem, while our empirical results validate the practical applicability across diverse financial institutions. This research not only advances the state-of-the-art in financial AI but also provides a blueprint for developing comprehensive intelligent systems that can adapt to the complex, interconnected nature of modern financial markets.

Experience-based self-evolution is crucial for LLM agents, but existing benchmarks often assume explicit goals, stable task patterns, and clear feedback. We study a more challenging setting: low-repetition tasks with implicit rewards, where past experience is difficult to reuse and feedback is delayed, noisy, and outcome-level. We introduce \textsc{FinEvolveBench}, a temporally controlled benchmark for financial sentiment prediction that links daily news-driven predictions to future excess returns. We further propose Tree-of-Experience (ToE), a structured experience-management method that organizes, retrieves, validates, and updates agent experience. Experiments show that general-purpose experience mechanisms do not consistently outperform no-experience baselines, while ToE achieves stronger overall performance. These results highlight the importance of structured experience management for self-evolving agents in implicit-reward environments.

LLM wiki systems compile knowledge into pre-filled KV caches for efficient inference, but assume a static corpus -- an assumption that fails whenever the underlying information landscape evolves. We formalize Streaming Knowledge Compilation: given a document stream, a fixed token budget, and future queries unknown at ingestion time, maintain a compiled wiki that minimizes cumulative regret against an offline oracle with perfect foresight. The enabling insight is a materiality signal $φ_t(k,n)\in[0,1]$ that scores document importance for entity $k$ at time $t$, acting as a query-relevance surrogate for proactive pinning before queries arrive; we prove an $O(\sqrt{T\log K})$ regret bound where $\varepsilon=\mathbb{E}[|φ_t-\hatφ_t|]$ is the only domain-specific quantity. We instantiate in two domains: finance, where $φ_t$ is abnormal stock volatility predicted by frozen Llama 3.1 8B classification head (AUROC = 0.728 on 76K articles, strict temporal split; $1.49\times$ higher realized forward volatility for predicted-material articles); and Wikipedia, where $φ_t$ is the Abnormal Edit Ratio (AER), a cross-sectionally normalized edit velocity -- showing the same algorithm generalizes beyond the finance domain. End-to-end QA evaluation on 173 matched pairs (finance) and 119 (Wikipedia) reveals a pervasive LLM-as-judge confound on post-training knowledge, establishing that regret analysis -- not absolute QA scores -- is the reliable evaluation metric for compiled knowledge systems. Finance cumulative regret converges to -20.0 (-0.12/step); Wikipedia to +16.0 (+0.13/step), with the positive sign confirming that Wikipedia edit content is genuinely post-training -- richer context consistently improves scores (No Wiki 3.80 vs. Oracle 4.74) -- and eliminates this confound. The $O(\sqrt{T\log K})$ guarantee applies to any domain where knowledge gaps can be predicted from streaming signals.

AI agents can increasingly handle the mechanical tasks of financial analysis: retrieving documents, calculating formulas, updating spreadsheets. The harder, more valuable challenge is reasoning through the open-ended questions that define expert Analyst work. Existing benchmarks do not capture this class of problem, and those that attempt to evaluate open-ended reasoning rely on model-judged outputs that introduce noise and circularity. We present Hedge-Bench 1.0: a benchmark of 102 actual, on-the-job tasks grounded in the explicit reasoning traces of professional hedge fund analysts working with relevant information sources. This approach enables deterministic grading against verified expert steps. Frontier models and agents score below 16% on the benchmark. We publish the dataset and evaluation harness at github.com/Trata-Inc/trata-hedge-bench.

Financial-research answers are decision-relevant only when another analyst can audit how they were produced: which source was chosen, which period and accounting definition were used, which assumptions were made, and how the calculation was performed. Existing finance benchmarks largely evaluate isolated subskills or final answers, leaving the auditable derivation itself under-measured. We introduce BigFinanceBench, a 928-item expert-authored benchmark of open-ended financial-research tasks in which each item pairs a ground-truth reference answer with a point-weighted rubric that decomposes the derivation into independently checkable steps. BigFinanceBench is workflow-grounded in that it evaluates the full derivation rather than only the final output. Across 36,241 rubric points, the benchmark supports partial-credit evaluation and localization of failures across the analyst workflow. Evaluating ten current frontier and open-weight agents, we find substantial headroom: the best system reaches only 58.8% rubric score, final-answer accuracy is a useful but lossy proxy for derivation quality, and model capability varies non-uniformly across financial workflows.

Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps. Real-world benchmarks offer limited failure attribution: researchers can observe underperformance, but often cannot isolate why because mechanisms are unobservable and entangled. Real financial data reveal only one realized path, making it difficult to assess tail-risk calibration or data efficiency. We introduce FinStressTS, a mechanism-aware synthetic benchmark that links model behavior to controlled structural causes. FinStressTS comprises 30 diagnostic environments around six mechanism families: volatility clustering, multi-scale persistence, heavy-tailed shocks, regime switching, self-exciting jumps, and zero-inflated processes. We evaluate two tasks: point forecasting, using NMAE across five settings, and probabilistic forecasting, using CRPS under known data-generating mechanisms. We benchmark 15 models, from classical methods (HAR, VAR) to Transformer forecasters (PatchTST, iTransformer) and deep probabilistic architectures (DeepAR, TSFlow), and use learning curves to measure sample efficiency. Our evaluation reveals three insights. First, performance is mechanism-dependent: autoregressive and linear models are highly competitive, and often outperform Transformer-based models, in several volatility-, tail-, and jump-driven environments. Second, distributional alignment matters: parametric probabilistic models such as DeepAR calibrate well in stationary settings, while flexible models can help when distributions become multimodal or sparse. Third, neural models often require more data to match simple baselines, with larger gains mainly when learning latent regimes or complex distributions. FinStressTS provides an open framework for diagnosing failure modes and advancing risk-aware forecasting.

Incorporating news into time series forecasting is appealing because news can reveal abrupt exogenous events that historical values alone cannot recover. However, existing LLM-based news-forecasting pipelines face two practical limitations: relevant news articles often exceed the model's context window, and iterative retrieval of supplementary news is typically unguided, leading to redundant updates and slow convergence. We address these issues with a novel framework that combines importance-aware news compression and process-level retrieval supervision. First, we train an importance reward model that estimates the forecasting utility of each article and uses this signal to allocate compression budgets during sequential pairwise fusion, preserving informative content within a fixed context limit. Second, we introduce a process reward model (PRM) that ranks multiple supplementary-news candidates conditioned on the current error profile and the history of previously selected articles, replacing one-shot blind retrieval with quality-controlled selection. Both components are trained offline using historical data with ground truth; inference uses the frozen filtering logic and compression modules without any reflection loop. Experiments on finance, energy, traffic, and bitcoin forecasting benchmarks show that our method improves prediction accuracy over strong baselines, significantly reduces the number of refinement iterations compared to the iterative baseline, and remains effective when relevant articles span thousands of tokens.

Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation improves retrieval by integrating planning, tool use, and iterative reasoning, but existing agentic RAG methods often couple semantic expansion with retrieval decisions in short-horizon inference loops, leading to high inference cost and limited suitability for time-sensitive news retrieval. We propose DynaTree, a two-stage framework for efficient and adaptive news retrieval. In the offline stage, DynaTree uses coordinated agents to construct a reusable retrieval tree that materializes the semantic space of a query topic. In the online stage, DynaTree performs lightweight daily subtree selection over a time-localized evaluation proxy, without further agentic reasoning, tree modification, or retraining. Experiments on a multi-day Syft news benchmark and multiple BEIR datasets show that DynaTree achieves strong recall and ranking performance, consistently outperforming standard RAG and prior agentic baselines. We further deploy DynaTree in the Syft production system and evaluate it through online A/B testing from Jan. 28 to Feb. 6, 2026. The dynamically adapted variant improves survival rate from 0.32-0.53 to 0.59-0.73 over a fixed offline-selected subtree and outperforms existing production recallers on every evaluation day. These results show that persistent, structure-aware semantic expansion can translate offline agentic reasoning into practical improvements in coverage, freshness, and relevance for real-world news retrieval.

Financial retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically rank evidence by textual relevance, but in financial markets evidence utility depends on event type, forecast horizon, and market context. We study news-triggered event-impact prediction as a point-in-time financial RAG problem. For each company-news anchor, the system retrieves financial news and SEC filing passages, appends a pre-decision market-context card, and predicts multi-horizon residual-return signals. Our method keeps the LLM frozen and adapts retrieval through an external Bayesian source memory updated from matured residual-return feedback. On a fixed 89-stock Nasdaq-oriented universe derived from the FinRL-DeepSeek/FNSPID task, using original FNSPID news and point-in-time EDGAR filing passages, Frozen Reader with Source Memory improves held-out macro-F1 from 0.438 to 0.471 and downstream portfolio Sharpe from 0.52 to 0.84 relative to Frozen Reader with No Memory. Supervised LoRA gives modest gains under static retrieval, but after source-memory adaptation, the LoRA reader does not improve over the frozen reader. These results suggest that, for financial RAG systems, learning where to retrieve can be as important as learning how to read, offering a modular route to market-feedback adaptation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced online data services, particularly in the domain of financial question answering (FinQA). However, such systems remain susceptible to numerical reasoning hallucinations, which critically undermine reliability in high-stakes financial applications. Although retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has been widely adopted to ground responses in external knowledge, it introduces three persistent challenges: noise sensitivity, calculation fragility, and an auditability crisis. Existing model-centric approaches, which primarily focus on optimizing either the retriever or generator in isolation, still struggle to address these issues in an integrated manner. In this work, we pioneer a data-centric paradigm and propose a novel framework, the Data-centric Reasoning Compiler (DCRC). The framework operates through three cohesive phases: (1) adversarial data construction, which synthesizes training examples with controlled noise to teach robustness; (2) multi-stage training that cultivates a Data-centric Structuring Agent (DSA) capable of explicit evidence auditing and program synthesis; and (3) a compile-and-execute inference process, where the DSA transforms user queries and retrieved documents into verifiable, executable reasoning programs. This data-driven framework ensures faithful numerical reasoning by design. We conduct extensive experiments on established offline benchmarks and further validate our framework through deployment in a real-world online financial QA system.

We present BlueFin, a benchmark that tasks large language model (LLM) agents with synthesis, manipulation, and comprehension tasks over spreadsheet workbooks in the professional finance domain. Though estimates of the global population of paying users of spreadsheet software range in the hundreds of millions -- an order of magnitude more than the estimated global population of professional developers -- comparatively fewer resources have been devoted to exploring and expanding LLM capabilities in the spreadsheet domain, with fewer still dedicated to mirroring real occupational tasks encountered by those in professional finance roles. In response, we curate a set of 131 challenging, complex tasks with real-world relevance in the domain, containing 3,225 granular rubric criteria; notably, our rubric criteria and LM judge evaluations are validated by a team of expert human annotators, resulting in high-quality, granular evaluations of complex tasks that are difficult to verify programmatically but can be reliably evaluated by an LM judge agent. Our judge achieves parity with expert consensus ($α=0.826$) with a macro-F1 score of 0.839. Frontier LLMs demonstrate poor performance on the challenging benchmark, with the strongest LLMs achieving less than 50% average scores across tasks -- models exhibit particular weaknesses in dynamic correctness. Our contributions include a dataset of examples across three categories of spreadsheet tasks, an open source harness and agentic evaluation framework, and a characterization of existing frontier models' performance on our benchmark.

Traditional multi-modal financial forecasting often relies on scalar sentiment scores, which fail to capture the nuances of financial news. To address this information loss, this paper explores high-dimensional representation learning by replacing discrete polarity ratings with dense FinBERT embeddings within a Transformer-based forecasting architecture. We benchmarked various embedding strategies on the FNSPID dataset, including raw embeddings, attention-weighted aggregation, and a custom Siamese network. While the attention-based mechanism struggled with the low signal-to-noise ratio typical of financial data, the integration of Siamese-optimized embeddings outperformed both the scalar baseline and raw embedding approaches, demonstrating that preserving high-dimensional narrative context yields improved predictive accuracy for short-term stock price movements.

We introduce FinVerBench, a benchmark and validity study for financial statement verification: determining whether a set of corporate financial statements is numerically consistent from the information shown to the model. FinVerBench is built from SEC 10-K XBRL filings for 43 S&P 500 companies and defines a four-category error taxonomy covering arithmetic, cross-statement linkage, year-over-year, and magnitude perturbations. We attempt fifteen contemporary LLM evaluations and report fourteen complete runs; a Gemini 2.5 Pro run is excluded from the main comparison because 40/108 gateway calls failed. All binary metrics exclude underdetermined positive instances whose perturbed line item is not rendered, leaving a 105-instance observable diagnostic subset (43 clean, 62 error-injected). Under the original guided-checklist prompt on the unrounded diagnostic subset, nine of fourteen complete LLM runs produce 95-100% false positives on clean statements, while one run achieves 0% observed false positives. Benchmark rendering choices materially affect measured recall: on a realistic rounded variant of the same observable subset, the calibrated model's recall is 79.0% with 0% observed FPR, compared with 100.0% recall on the unrounded diagnostic variant. These results support a construct-validity conclusion rather than a final leaderboard: financial statement verification is not merely arithmetic detection, but calibrated judgment under incomplete observability, prompt-induced assumptions, and realistic numerical rendering. FinVerBench and all code are publicly available.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced financial automation through Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), yet hallucinations remain a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes environments. Existing benchmarks focus on single-turn, English-centric tasks, leaving the multi-turn dynamics and linguistic-regulatory nuances of the Korean financial domain unaddressed. We introduce K-FinHallu, the first benchmark for hallucination detection in multi-turn Korean financial RAG. We construct multi-turn dialogues from authentic Korean financial documents and inject hallucinations under a proposed hierarchical taxonomy based on context answerability that explicitly accounts for justified abstention. Benchmarking frontier and open-source LLMs as hallucination detectors, we find that even the strongest models struggle with fine-grained financial diagnostics and refusal behavior. While fine-tuning an 8B model on our training split yields performance competitive with frontier LLMs, justified abstention remains the weakest axis across all evaluated models.

DeFi investment agents, systems that use AI for autonomous on-chain trading, have attained over USD 3 billion in combined token valuations since late 2024. We survey over 1,900 AI-tagged crypto projects, filter to investment-focused agents, and curate 10 representative projects spanning strategy and observability dimensions. We then conduct a deep-dive architectural analysis of two prominent agent frameworks, ElizaOS and Virtuals Protocol, and a quantitative on-chain performance analysis of 11 Solana-based agent treasuries with publicly attributable trading activity, covering 925,323 token holders. We find that current deployments remain early and heterogeneous: (1) in our sample, many projects do not yet provide clear evidence of autonomous trade execution, and developer interviews suggest that many visible deployments remain basic API integrations; (2) agent treasuries retain over USD 30M in paper gains while token holders collectively lost USD 191.7M, with the top 1% of wallets capturing 81.4% of all gains (USD 1.81B); (3) token valuations are weakly connected to treasury fundamentals, with market-cap-to-AUM ratios exceeding 10,000x versus below 1x for established DeFi protocols; and (4) aggregate user gains peaked at USD 2.4B before declining to net losses, with median returns negative on every platform and tokens declining 93% on average from all-time highs. We interpret these outcomes as characteristic of a permissionless, first-generation market in which open infrastructure enables rapid experimentation but also allows naive or speculative agents to launch before robust standards for autonomy, performance, and stakeholder alignment emerge. We therefore propose a maturity framework along three dimensions: autonomous execution, risk-adjusted profitability, and stakeholder alignment, to characterize the gap between current deployments and future investment-grade agent systems.

Accurately forecasting the impact of salient financial events on markets is critical for investors and policymakers. However, existing multimodal time-series models typically fuse text and prices symmetrically, without an explicit way to decide when event text is truly predictive, and thus struggle to exploit the directional event-to-price structure and the heterogeneous roles of textual and price signals. In this work, we propose GS-Fuse, a multimodal event-based forecasting framework that employs (i) a Granger-supervised, causal-aware gated fusion module, which learns to open toward event text only when it provides incremental predictive value beyond historical prices, and (ii) a multi-granularity alignment mechanism that jointly aligns high-level event representations and fine-grained textual cues with future market trajectories. Built as a flexible, plug-and-play adapter on top of off-the-shelf large language models and time-series foundation models, GS-Fuse can be instantiated across diverse backbones and market settings. Extensive experiments on real-world financial datasets show that GS-Fuse consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time-series and multimodal baselines across multiple assets and forecasting horizons.

Evaluating whether large language model (LLM) agents can profit in capital markets is increasingly framed as end-to-end trading: place an agent in a historical market, let it trade, and measure portfolio returns. This setup is vulnerable to two evaluation failures. First, long backtests often overlap with the knowledge cutoffs of frontier LLMs, allowing memorized tickers, dates, prices, and market narratives to substitute for investment reasoning. Second, raw returns are a noisy proxy for stock-selection ability, since positive performance may come from market beta, style exposure, or favorable regimes rather than genuine alpha. We introduce KTD-Fin (Knowing-To-Doing Financial Benchmark), an end-to-end stock-market trading benchmark that addresses both issues. KTD-Fin uses a data-side masking protocol to anonymize key identifiers and calendar information consistently across prompts and tools, separating historical market memory from investment decision-making. It also incorporates a Barra-style performance attribution framework that decomposes portfolio returns into market, style, and stock-selection alpha components. Across ten frontier LLM agents evaluated on the Chinese CSI300 over a 2024--2026 window, masking substantially changes agent rationales, pushing them towards anonymized factor-based reasoning. Attribution analysis further shows that LLM agents' cumulative returns under leakage-controlled evaluation are largely explained by passive market and style exposure, with limited evidence of persistent stock-selection alpha. These findings suggest that financial LLM benchmarks should evaluate not only whether an agent makes money, but also whether the source of returns reflects transferable investment skill. We release KTD-Fin as a reproducible template for leakage-controlled and attribution-aware evaluation of LLM trading agents.

Existing approaches for synthetic tabular data generation are based on either purely generative models or LLMs, both of which struggle with data heterogeneity, logical consistency, rare-event coverage, and robustness in low-data regimes. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical hybrid top-down and bottom-up (H-TDBU) framework that decouples semantic structures from stochastic texture. In the top-down path, structure-driven logical constraints and cross-modal alignment rules are constructed, while in the bottom-up path, lightweight tabular generators are used to learn local statistical patterns from real data. The two paths are consolidated in a unified synthesis engine with an iterative feedback loop. We evaluate the framework on weak multimodal financial benchmarks combining tabular and sentiment-text data. Experimental results show that our H-TDBU approach improves train-synthetic-test-real performance over neural baseline methods while preserving semantic consistency. Our results suggest that hierarchical rule-guided synthesis provides an effective mechanism for combining controllability, semantic coherence, and statistical fidelity in synthetic data generation.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have achieved superior performance in static financial reasoning and simple dynamic trading tasks. However, existing static financial benchmarks are insufficient to assess the dynamic wealth management and financial decision-making capabilities of LLMs in real-world environments. To bridge this gap, we present FinBoardBench, an evaluation suite based on three classic financial board games: Cashflow, Acquire, and Monopoly. FinBoardBench assesses a comprehensive set of financial skills, including personal cash flow management with debt balancing, corporate investment and acquisition forecasting, and competitive trade negotiations with asset auctions. Our experiments with 9 advanced LLMs reveal that while exhibiting basic long-term planning and investment logic, they fail to effectively leverage complex interactions for profit, and their strong static reasoning performance does not transform into successful dynamic decision-making. Notably, they tend to prioritize immediate asset acquisition over maintaining sufficient liquidity, making them vulnerable to financial crises triggered by random events. We hope that FinBoardBench can provide a valuable reference for more intelligent LLM-based decision-making systems in the future.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in finance, yet most existing work emphasizes trading signals or financial NLP tasks centered on prediction. Institutional fundamental research, by contrast, requires human analysts or AI agents to gather evidence, identify business drivers, compare competing viewpoints, and generate investment memos. Its broader goal is not merely to predict outcomes, but to produce investment plans that are transparent, reusable, and verifiable, while contributing to the cumulative development of investment knowledge. We present FundaPod, a multi-persona agent pod architecture for AI-assisted fundamental investment research. We argue that fundamental research is a human-centric decision-support task that is qualitatively distinct from trading-signal generation, and is therefore better served by an independence-preserving architecture. In FundaPod, AI agents with different personas, such as value investors or macro strategists, conduct research independently under a shared provenance contract. Their disagreements are then surfaced post hoc for adjudication by the human portfolio manager (PM) through a knowledge-graph memory system. This paper contributes five design principles for human-AI hybrid systems supporting fundamental research, grounded in design-science practice and theories of cognitive isolation and human-machine coordination. It also describes four architectural mechanisms: a persona distillation pipeline that turns public investor materials into deployable agents; a declarative skill registry that lets the planner derive typed task graphs; a grounded evidence model that links memo claims to verifiable sources; and a knowledge-graph "second brain" that connects tickers, memos, analysts, and themes. We demonstrate the architecture through a complete case study and a persona-based memo comparison.

Finance LLM agents must simultaneously block prompt-induced unauthorized actions and approve legitimate multi-step business workflows. However, boundary filters often miss irreversible mid-trajectory tool calls, while post-hoc LLM judges perform auditing only after termination -- too late for intervention and at a computational cost that scales linearly with trace length. We present FinHarness, an inline safety harness that wraps a finance agent end-to-end with three components: a Query Monitor that fuses single-turn intent with cross-turn drift, a Tool Monitor that evaluates each prospective tool call, and a Cascade module that integrates per-step risk and adaptively routes verification between a lightweight and an advanced-tier LLM judge. Fired risk factors are re-injected into the agent input as ex-ante evidence, enabling the agent to refuse, re-plan, or approve on its own. On FinVault, routed FinHarness cuts ASR from 38.3% to 15.0% while largely preserving benign approval ($41.1\% \to 39.3\%$), and uses $4.7\times$ fewer advanced-judge calls than an always-advanced ablation.

Underwater robotics has advanced significantly over recent decades. however, the development of miniaturized underwater robots remains limited by low energy densities of traditional power sources. Nature offers compelling solutions-organisms like mantis shrimps and fleas utilize latch-mediated spring actuation (LaMSA) systems that achieve rapid movements through a decoupled energy storage and release mechanism. Despite extensive studies of LaMSA, replicating such rapid, asymmetric actuation within simple, compact structures remains challenging. In this work, we introduce a bioinspired, soft bistable actuator with an integrated latch mechanism that enables asymmetric energy input and release using a single motor. Coupled with fin structures, this design facilitates efficient underwater propulsion and maneuverability. Experimental results demonstrate stable periodic flapping, precise steering, and a maximum thrust of 0.528 N, impulse of 0.147 Ns, and vertical displacement of 30 mm. By modulating fin angles, the robot achieves versatile motions, including vertical ascent, diagonal forward movement, and lateral translation. This study presents a novel, energy-efficient approach for controlling motion in compact underwater robots, paving the way for advanced biomimetic designs with potential applications in exploration, environmental monitoring, and inspection.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems offer a promising approach to reduce hallucinations and improve answer accuracy in large language models (LLMs), a requirement for reliable, financial analysis where answers must be grounded in verifiable evidence from filings rather than generated from model priors. However, designing RAG systems that extract meaningful insights from mixed financial documents and integrate into analyst workflows remains challenging. This paper introduces MimirRAG (Metadata-Integrated Multi-Agent Information Retrieval), a multi-agent RAG system developed iteratively to address these challenges. MimirRAG features a modular pipeline encompassing structure-preserving parsing of PDF filings, table-aware chunking, metadata extraction, agent-based retrieval with query planning and hybrid search, validation, and context-aware generation with numerical reasoning support. Our ablation study identifies three key technical enablers for effective financial RAG: metadata integration, table-aware chunking, and an agentic workflow. MimirRAG was evaluated quantitatively using FinanceBench and qualitatively through expert validation with four financial analysts. The system achieved 89.3% accuracy on FinanceBench, outperforming the original benchmark baselines. Expert feedback highlighted that successful deployment also requires calibrated trust, comprehensive data integration, and user personalization. We conclude that combining multi-agent RAG architecture with human-centric design principles can improve the extraction of meaningful insights in financial analysis.