Conditional Distribution Estimation

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12 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Learning joint probabilistic weather forecasts from station observations alone

    Oct 7, 2026Chaeyeon Yi, Yun Am SeoWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin 17035, Republic of Korea · NAVI Hyper-Tropicalization Research Institute, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea · Department of Data Science, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea

  2. Sparsifying Stochasticity, Not Capacity: Partial Stochasticity via Deep Weight Factorization of Prior Scales

    Oct 7, 2026Marius P Linhard, Maurizio FilipponeBayesian Neural NetworksConditional Distribution Estimation

    Université Grenoble Alpes, France · KAUST, Saudi Arabia

  3. Scalable Logistic Gaussian Process Density Regression with Kinetic Langevin Sampling

    Oct 7, 2026Daniel Paulin, Ádám Jung, András A. BenczúrConditional Distribution EstimationDensity Estimation

    Nanyang Technological University · Eötvös Lor´and University (ELTE) HUN-REN Institute for Computer Science and Control (SZTAKI)

  4. Learning Transition Kernels of Jump-Diffusion Processes with Conditional Diffusion Models

    Oct 6, 2026Yuzhen Zhao, Yating Liu, Quentin GuibertStochastic Differential EquationsConditional Distribution Estimation

    CEREMADE, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, PSL, 75016 Paris, France

  5. Delay-coordinate reconstruction and conditional-moment causal diagnostics in stochastic systems

    Oct 4, 2026Jun OhkuboDynamical SystemsStochastic Linear Dynamical Systems

    Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Saitama University, Sakura, Saitama, 338–8570 Japan

  6. Generalized Engression Models

    Oct 1, 2026Xinwei Shen, Zijian Guo, Francis BachConditional Distribution EstimationConditional Generative Modeling

    Department of Statistics, University of Washington · Center for Data Science, Zhejiang University · Inria, ´Ecole Normale Sup´erieure, PSL Research University

  7. Generative sequence modeling for infinite memory processes via predictive states

    Sep 29, 2026Michael Wieck-Sosa, Cosma Rohilla ShaliziConditional Distribution EstimationSequence Modeling

    Department of Statistics & Data Science Carnegie Mellon University

  8. Multi-Task Learning of Conditional Mean Operators: applications to dynamical systems and uncertainty quantification

    Sep 28, 2026Sami Chemlal, Thibaut Germain, Rémi Flamary +2Dynamical SystemsUncertainty Quantification

    CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique · University of Novi Sad

  9. Domain-Adapted Diffusion Models for Conditional Independence Testing

    Sep 27, 2026Yanfeng Yang, Junda Zhao, Yijie Gao +8Multi-Source Domain AdaptationDomain Adaptation

    The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI, Tokyo, Japan · The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan · East China Normal University, Shanghai, China +4

  10. Sufficiently Reduced Distributional Regression

    Sep 24, 2026Alexander Henzi, Tiange Liu, Xinwei ShenConditional Distribution EstimationInverse Dimensionality Reduction

    Tsinghua University, Department of Statistics and Data Science · University of Washington

  11. Conditional Tensor Diffusion: Distributional Counterfactual Learning and Inference

    Sep 22, 2026Xinbing Kong, Zeyu Li, Junfan Mao +1Causal Counterfactual GenerationLow-Rank Matrix Decomposition

    Southeast University · University of Science and Technology of China

  12. Marginal Log-Likelihood Increments under Dirichlet-Smoothed Markov Estimation

    Sep 22, 2026Levin David SchwabMarkov ModelsProcess Mining

  13. Multivariate quantile regression via Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    Sep 20, 2026Andrew Polar, Michael PoluektovQuantile RegressionConditional Distribution Estimation

    Independent software consultant, Duluth, GA, USA · School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, University of Greenwich, Park Row, London SE10 9LS, UK

  14. Belted Engression: Sufficient Dimension Reduction for Generative Distributional Regression

    Sep 20, 2026Wenxi Tan, Bing Li, Lingzhou XueConditional Distribution EstimationInverse Dimensionality Reduction

    Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University

  15. Bayesian Filtering in Physical Systems via Test-time Trained Flow Matching

    Sep 20, 2026Ruiqi Feng, Chongyi Wang, Tao Zhang +1Flow MatchingBayesian Filtering

    Westlake University & Zhejiang University · Westlake University

  16. Cross-Block Conditioning in Deep Boltzmann Machines for Statistical Data Fusion

    Sep 14, 2026Junichiro NiimiLearning with Missing DataConditional Distribution Estimation

    Meijo University

  17. A Local Sinkhorn Framework for Conditional Distribution Reconstruction of Multidimensional Random Fields

    Aug 12, 2026Mingtao Xia, Qijing ShenUncertainty QuantificationConditional Distribution Estimation

    School of Mathematics, University of Birmingham, Watson Building, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom · Department of Mathematics, University of Houston, 3551 Cullen Blvd, Houston, 77204, Texas, United States · Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom, Old Road Campus, Oxford, OX3 7BN, United Kingdom

  18. Error Analysis of Neural-Network-Based Engression

    Jul 30, 2026Juntong Chen, Zijian Guo, Xinwei ShenConditional Distribution EstimationNeural Network Approximation Theory

    School of Mathematical Sciences, Xiamen University · Center for Data Science, Zhejiang University · Department of Statistics, University of Washington

  19. Parallel gradient boosting for flexible estimation of conditional distributions

    Jul 15, 2026Rémy Chapelle, Nicolas Vayatis, Bruno Falissard +1Ensemble LearningConditional Distribution Estimation

    CESP, CB, EVDG · Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Inserm, CESP, 94807, Villejuif, France · CB +2

  20. Physics-informed Conditional Normalizing Flows for Angles-only Cislunar Orbit Determination

    Jun 29, 2026Walther Litteri, Massimiliano VasileNormalizing FlowsConditional Distribution Estimation

    Aerospace Centre of Excellence, University of Strathclyde, G11XQ Glasgow, UK · Aerospace Centre of Excellence, University of Strathclyde, G1 1XQ Glasgow, UK

  21. Factorizable Normalizing Flows for parameter-dependent density morphing

    Jun 29, 2026Davide Valsecchi, Mauro Donegà, Rainer WallnyNormalizing FlowsConditional Distribution Estimation

    Institute for Particle Physics and Astrophysics, D-PHYS, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

  22. Convergence Rates for Neural-Network Estimation with Current-Status Data

    Jun 8, 2026Yuan Wu, Tianhui ZhouSurvival AnalysisConditional Distribution Estimation

    Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA

  23. Theoretical Analysis of Engression and Reverse Markov Engression

    May 31, 2026Jiaqi Huang, Gongjun Xu, Ji ZhuConditional Distribution EstimationStatistical Learning Theory

    Department of Statistics, University of Michigan · Ann Arbor, MI 48109, U.S.A.

  24. When Is Next-Token Prediction Useful? Marginalization, Ergodicity, Mixture Identifiability, Local Sufficiency, RAG, Tools, and Programming

    May 22, 2026Francesco CorielliAutoregressive Language ModelingNext-Token Prediction

  25. PromptNCE: Conditional Probabilities and PMI Using Only LLMs and Contrastive Estimation Prompts

    May 20, 2026Juliette Woodrow, Chris PiechLLM PromptingConditional Distribution Estimation

    Department of Computer Science Stanford University

  26. Conditioning Gaussian Processes on Almost Anything

    May 20, 2026Henry Moss, Lachlan Astfalck, Thomas Cowperthwaite +5Gaussian ProcessesConditional Distribution Estimation

    Lancaster University · University of New South Wales · University of Cambridge +1

  27. Free Energy Manifold: Score-Based Inference for Hybrid Bayesian Networks

    May 11, 2026Cheol Young Park, Shou MatsumotoBayesian NetworksEnergy-Based Models

    ATOS Co., Ltd., 273, Digital-ro, Guro-gu, Seoul, 08381, Republic of Korea · C5I Center, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA

  28. CONTRA: Conformal Prediction Region via Normalizing Flow Transformation

    May 8, 2026Zhenhan Fang, Aixin Tan, Jian HuangConformal PredictionConditional Distribution Estimation

    Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Iowa Iowa City, IA 52242, USA · Department of Applied Mathematics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hongkong, China

  29. One Operator for Many Densities: Amortized Approximation of Conditioning by Neural Operators

    May 7, 2026Panos Tsimpos, Edoardo Calvello, Ayoub Belhadji +1Amortized InferenceBayesian Inference

    Operations Research Center MASSachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 · Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA 91125 · Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems Center for Computational Science and Engineering MASSachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 +2

  30. Interpretable Quantile Regression by Optimal Decision Trees

    Apr 22, 2026Valentin Lemaire, Gaël Aglin, Siegfried NijssenQuantile RegressionInterpretable ML

    Euranova, Rue Emile Francqui, Mont-Saint-Guibert, Belgium · Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium