Decision-Making under Uncertainty

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Universal Decision Learners

    May 29, 2026Sridhar MahadevanDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Adobe Research San Jose, CA · Academic affiliation: Research Professor, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

  2. Support sufficiency as action-sufficient compression: a single-cycle rate-regret formulation

    May 28, 2026Mark WalshDecision-Making under Uncertainty

  3. Managing Uncertainty in LLM-Generated Procedural Knowledge for Virtual Laboratory Planning

    May 25, 2026Polychronis Karpodinis, Dimitris KallesLLM PlanningDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    School of Science and Technology, Hellenic Open University, Patras 26335, Greece

  4. Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertainty

    May 25, 2026Jinwoo Go, Xiaoning Qian, Byung-Jun YoonBayesian Experimental DesignDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Computing & Data Sciences, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY · Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX · Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

  5. Infra-Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Agents Outperform Classical RL For Worst-Case Robustness

    May 22, 2026Manish Aryal, Faiyaz Azam, Agnivo Banerjee +11Reinforcement LearningModel Misspecification

    Purdue University · Carnegie Mellon University · WorldQuant University +11

  6. ECUASn_n: A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systems

    May 19, 2026Lautaro Estienne, Erik Ernst, Matías Vera +2Uncertainty QuantificationProper Scoring Rules

    School of Engineering, UBA, Argentina · ICC, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina · LISN, CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay, France +4

  7. Confidence-Gated Robot Autonomy: When Does Uncertainty Actually Help?

    May 18, 2026Johannes A. Gaus, Jhon P. F. Charaja, Daniel HaeufleUncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Hertie Institute for Clinical Brain Research & Center for Integrative Neuroscience, University of Tübingen, Germany

  8. Bayesian-Monte Carlo Schedule Updating for Construction Digital Twins: A Probabilistic Framework for Dynamic Project Forecasting

    May 17, 2026Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Vinayak Kaushal +1Probabilistic ForecastingDigital Twins

    1* M.S. Graduate, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA. · 2Ph.D. Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA. · 3Associate Professor of Instruction, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA.

  9. BELIEF: Structured Evidence Modeling and Uncertainty-Aware Fusion for Biomedical Question Answering

    May 17, 2026Chang Zong, Hao Ning, Siliang Tang +2HealthcareEvidence-Grounded Reasoning

  10. Evidential Information Fusion on Possibilistic Structure

    May 16, 2026Qianli Zhou, Ye Cui, Zhen Li +2Dempster-Shafer TheoryDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    School of Electronics and Information, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada · China Mobile Information Technology Center, Beijing, 100029, China +4

  11. Dynamic Deployment of Mobile Charging Trucks During Natural Disaster Evacuation: An Offline-to-Online Framework

    May 16, 2026Rui Ma, Zilin Bian, Kaan OzbayElectric Vehicle ChargingVehicle Routing

    New York University · Rochester Institute of Technology

  12. Boundedly Rational Meta-Learning in Sequential Consumer Choice

    May 15, 2026Mehrzad Khosravi, Max Kleiman-Weiner, Hema YoganarasimhanMeta-LearningSequential Decision Making

    University of Washington

  13. Bounded-Rationality, Hedging, and Generalization

    May 14, 2026Pedro A. OrtegaInformation-Theoretic Generalization BoundsBounded Rationality

    Daios Technologies

  14. Modeling Bounded Rationality in Drug Shortage Pharmacists Using Attention-Guided Dynamic Decomposition

    May 13, 2026Yaniv Eliyahu Amiri, Noah Chicoine, Jacqueline Griffin +1Computational Cognitive ModelingClinical Decision-Making

    Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA · Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA · Department of Psychology, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA

  15. Adaptive mine planning under geological uncertainty: A POMDP framework for sequential decision-making

    May 13, 2026Hamza Khalifi, Jef Caers, Yassine Taha +2Sequential Decision MakingPartially Observable Markov Decision Processes

    Geology & Sustainable Mining Institute (GSMI), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (UM6P), 43150, Benguerir, Morocco · Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

  16. Unweighted ranking for value-based decision making with uncertainty

    May 13, 2026Aarón López García, Natalia Criado, Jose SuchMulti-Criteria Decision AnalysisHuman-AI Decision Making

    Departament de Matemátiques per a l’Economia i l’Empresa, Facultat d’Economia, Universitat de Valéncia · Valencian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Universitat Politècnica de València

  17. Delightful Exploration

    May 13, 2026Ian OsbandMulti-Armed BanditsValue of Information

    Google DeepMind

  18. Missingness-MDPs: Bridging the Theory of Missing Data and POMDPs

    May 12, 2026Joshua Wendland, Markel Zubia, Roman Andriushchenko +6Markov ModelsLearning with Missing Data

    1Ruhr University Bochum · 2Brno University of Technology · 3Radboud University Nijmegen +2

  19. MoMo: Conditioned Contrastive Representation Learning for Preference-Modulated Planning

    May 8, 2026Yusuf Syed, Viraj Parimi, Brian WilliamsContrastive LearningModel-Based Planning

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  20. Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimization

    May 8, 2026Shuyi Chen, Wenbin Zhou, Shixiang ZhuConformal PredictionRobust Optimization

    Carnegie Mellon University

  21. The Limits of AI-Driven Allocation: Optimal Screening under Aleatoric Uncertainty

    May 8, 2026Santiago Cortes-Gomez, Mateo Dulce Rubio, Carlos Patino +1Aleatoric UncertaintyDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University · Center for Data Science, New York University · University of Amsterdam

  22. DRIP-R: A Benchmark for Decision-Making and Reasoning Under Real-World Policy Ambiguity in the Retail Domain

    May 8, 2026Hsuvas Borkakoty, Sebastian Pohl, Cheng Wang +2LLM Agent EvaluationAI Agent Benchmarks

    Interdisciplinary Transformation University, Austria · Amazon, Berlin, Germany

  23. Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies

    May 7, 2026Sunay Joshi, Tao Wang, Hamed Hassani +1Decision-Making under Uncertainty

    University of Pennsylvania

  24. Resource-Constrained Robotic Planning in the face of Mixed Uncertainty

    May 7, 2026Yihao Yin, Pian Yu, Andrea Turrini +3Markov Decision ProcessesRobot Task Planning

    Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS), UCAS, China. · Key Laboratory of System Software (Chinese Academy of Sciences), Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. +1

  25. A Bayesian Approach for Task-Specific Next-Best-View Selection with Uncertain Geometry

    May 6, 2026Jingsen Zhu, Silvia Sellán, Alexander TereninNext-Best-View Planning3D Reconstruction

    Cornell University, USA · Columbia University, USA

  26. NH-CROP: Robust Pricing for Governed Language Data Assets under Cost Uncertainty

    May 3, 2026Xu Zheng, Feiyu Wu, Zhuocheng Wang +2Value of InformationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    School of Cyber Engineering, Xidian University

  27. CHASE: Competing Hypotheses for Ambiguity-Aware Selective Prediction

    May 2, 2026Kartik Jhawar, Yuhao Geng, Atul N. Parikh +1Selective PredictionSelective Inference

    Institute for Digital Molecular Analytics and Science, NTU, Singapore 636921 · School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, NTU, Singapore 639798 · School of Materials Science and Engineering, NTU, Singapore 639798 +1

  28. Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent

    May 1, 2026Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27LLM Agent OrchestrationAI Control

    PolyShape, Greece. · NTUA, Greece. · ESSEC Business School, Singapore. +19

  29. Learning to Spend: Model Predictive Control for Budgeting under Non-Stationary Returns

    Apr 29, 2026Nilavra Pathak, Smriti Shyamal, Prasant Mhasker +1Stochastic Optimal ControlModel Predictive Control

    Marketing Data Science, Expedia Group · Department of Chemical Engineering, McMaster University

  30. Variational Neural Belief Parameterizations for Robust Dexterous Grasping under Multimodal Uncertainty

    Apr 28, 2026Clinton Enwerem, Shreya Kalyanaraman, John S. Baras +1Belief-Space PlanningStochastic Optimization