Demand Response

The energy transition is reshaping residential electricity consumption through the increasing adoption of distributed generation, electrified appliances, and demand-response programs. Understanding these evolving behaviors requires access to granular smart-meter data for applications such as load forecasting, appliance detection, and demand-side flexibility analysis. However, such data are subject to strict access restrictions and data-protection regulations. Thus, realistic synthetic alternatives are necessary. In this paper, we introduce LoaDiff, a diffusion-based generative model for year-long, sub-hourly smart-meter load curves. LoaDiff supports flexible conditioning on static household attributes, such as appliance ownership, and dynamic contextual variables, including calendar information and outdoor temperature. We evaluate the model against multiple generative baselines on three residential electricity-consumption datasets. Our experiments assess four complementary dimensions: fidelity and diversity, training-record memorization risk, downstream utility for load forecasting and appliance detection, and conditional controllability under alternative temperature conditions. The results show that LoaDiff generates realistic and diverse load profiles, achieves a favorable trade-off between generation quality and limited evidence of memorization, preserves information useful for downstream energy applications, and responds coherently to changes in conditioning variables.

Residential virtual power plants (VPPs) can provide grid flexibility by shifting household demand, but physical flexibility becomes dependable capacity only when residents authorize a plan and the promised response is delivered. Existing benchmarks evaluate control but omit event-specific authorization. We present EnergyBridge, a benchmark and agent framework connecting capacity reporting, household authorization, and physical execution. It combines region-specific EnergyPlus environments for Tianjin and Berlin with an LLM-based User Participation Simulator. Against 584 persona- and event-matched human role-play judgments, the LLM-based User Participation Simulator preserves method ordering with a 5.3-point mean absolute acceptance error. Across conventional controllers and agent baselines, EnergyBridge achieves the highest simulated authorization, lowest event-window energy, and the most reliable capacity commitment in both regions. We release human data and codes for reproducible human-centered grid-flexibility research: https://github.com/Agentic-Intelligence-Lab/EnergyBridge.

Evaluations of LLM planning agents largely ask whether a task succeeds or a declared plan is followed. In strategic cyber-physical systems, a stronger question is whether the planning architecture remains appropriate after autonomous participants respond and physics constrains the outcome. We introduce a controlled, physics-grounded benchmark built around planning-induced control trajectories: the ordered planning operations and directives through which an execution architecture acts on other agents and the physical process. It implements predefined, sequential, hierarchical, and search executors in a smart-grid demand-response system with 40 heterogeneous prosumers and an independently simulated radial feeder. The LLM is bounded to typed policy declaration and short operator messages, while schedule construction, prosumer dynamics, and power flow remain explicit code. The protocol uses paired forced-mode counterfactuals, common random response draws, and event-level deadline feasibility. Three properties follow. Architecture materially changes outcomes: forced search is the oracle in all five baseline seeds. Execution fidelity needs more than mode agreement: objective substitution holds agreement at 1.0 while increasing voltage shortfall by 2.68x. A 144-scenario, 576-episode bank has feasible oracles from three of the four architectures. A prespecified stress-held-out ridge has mean regret 90.7 (95% interval [73.8, 108.6]) and no detectable value over fixed sequential; applying known deadline feasibility before quality prediction cuts regret to 29.0 and improves over fixed sequential by 61.1. An all-feasible ablation does not beat fixed search, localising the remaining challenge to within-feasible quality selection. A five-model extension separates stress-conditioned, state-blind, and invariant declarers; latency tails show that live feasibility should be treated probabilistically.

Real-time bidding (RTB) ad exchanges typically forward nearly all incoming requests to demand-side platforms (DSPs), even though only a small fraction receive bids. This over-distribution weakens auction outcomes: DSPs throttle participation under compute and budget constraints, reducing the effective use of limited bidding capacity. We present a competition-aware request dispatch framework that uses distributional bid prediction and probabilistic forwarding to decide whether each request should be sent to each DSP. The system adapts per-DSP thresholds over time through lightweight policy optimization to track non-stationary market conditions. We evaluate the framework through four sequential online experiments on a production platform serving over 20 billion daily requests. A full multi-DSP deployment reduces DSP request volume under the policy by 34.2% while increasing net revenue by 4.6% (p<0.001) in a recent 14-day window after an initial DSP adaptation period. Further analysis highlights strong heterogeneity across traffic segments and reveals that aggregate metrics can be misleading. Segment-level and per-DSP analyses suggest that the policy surfaces comparative advantages among DSPs, improving monetized outcomes without increasing overall request volume.

Real-time bidding is central to computational advertising, comprising three elements: Supply Side Platform (SSP) selling ad impressions, Demand Side Platform (DSP) bidding for advertisers, and Ad Exchange conducting auctions between them. Traditional auto-bidding algorithms focus solely on the DSP side, maximizing advertiser conversions by adjusting bids against competitors. However, current big ad platforms, such as social media and e-commerce companies, now integrate SSP, DSP, and Ad Exchange functions internally. From such ad platforms' perspective, the goal of the auto-bidding algorithms is not only to maximize the advertisers' conversions, but also the total revenue of the platform. Given the lack of platform-centric evaluation frameworks and the pressing need to advance auto-bidding research, we propose PlatformBid - the first comprehensive benchmark designed from a unified ad platform's perspective. To accurately reflect the real-world auto-bidding scenarios, we define three representative settings: (1) homogeneous competition with identical algorithms across advertisers, (2) heterogeneous competition with diverse algorithmic strategies, and (3) promotional competition where some advertisers surge budgets for boosting sales during promotional events like Black Friday. We systematically evaluate a broad spectrum of existing auto-bidding methods across these settings, encompassing classical control methods, RL-based methods, and recent generative methods. Besides these methods, we further propose a novel auto-bidding method based on flow-matching, termed BidFlow, which leverages the flow-matching method's expressive policy representation to effectively handle dynamic competitive environments. Online experiments on Kuaishou further show a +0.68% improvement in target cost, providing deployment evidence for the offline-online consistency of PlatformBid.

Adversarial attacks are crafted data manipulations that aim to deteriorate the outcomes of prediction or decision-making algorithms. In the energy systems literature, adversarial attacks have been studied with a focus on problems regarding the electricity grid. Such problems include forecasting and grid state estimation, where adversarial attacks are also known as false data injection attacks. Only few studies have analyzed the potential impact that adversarial attacks have on the demand side. We analyze how manipulated price forecasts impact the decision-making in industrial demand response. To this end, we design adversarial attacks that aim to deteriorate the output of electricity price forecasting models and solve scheduling optimization problems of energy-intensive production processes using the distorted price forecasts. We make use of a generalized process model to investigate the vulnerability to adversarial attacks for a range of production scheduling problems with different levels of process flexibility. We find that adversarial attacks can erode the profits gained from demand response. However, when perturbations are limited in extent (so that they are hard to detect by the human user), demand response preserves about 90% of its financial advantage compared to steady-state process operation. Further, we find that the impact of adversarial attacks on demand response does not only depend on the magnitude of the perturbations but rather on the orientation of the adversarial perturbations. Therefore, we argue that attack analyses should explicitly incorporate the sensitivities of scheduling optimization models into the attack design to enable more rigorous assessments of decision-making under adversarial attacks.

Bringing Large Language Models (LLMs) into industrial ride-hailing dispatch as semantic feature extractors over platform-scale behavioral logs is a compelling but under-explored data systems problem. Production matching pipelines remain dominated by structured numerical features, yet decisive behavioral signals (e.g., a driver's habitual aversion to certain regions) are inherently contextual and naturally expressible as LLM-generated user profiles. However, scaling such profiling to a live, millisecond-latency dispatcher faces three intertwined constraints rarely addressed together: on a platform with millions of daily orders, logs exceed any LLM's context window by orders of magnitude; most users are long-tail, with too few interactions for per-user profiling; and surface-fluent profiles do not necessarily improve downstream prediction utility. We present ProfiLLM, an agentic LLM data pipeline that operationalizes utility-aligned user profiling for production matching systems through two modules. (1) Tool-Augmented Global Knowledge Mining equips an LLM agent with 27 analytical tools to mine platform-scale data, producing reusable global knowledge, adaptive user clustering rules, and region-level supply-demand priors. (2) Utility-Aligned Profile Exploration generates multiple candidate profiles per cluster, evaluates them via a lightweight downstream utility proxy, iteratively refines the best candidates and constructs preference pairs for DPO fine-tuning. Deployed on DiDi's production dispatcher, ProfiLLM achieves up to +6.14% relative AUC improvement in outcome prediction, up to +4.35% GMV gain in dispatching simulation, and consistent improvements in a 14-day online A/B test including +0.47% GMV, +0.33% Completion Rate, and -0.82% Cancel-Before-Accept rate.

The real-time orchestration of microgrids that combine fluctuating renewable sources, dispatchable units, storage and curtailable consumers requires the repeated solution of combinatorial dispatch and coalition formation problems under hard control deadlines. In this paper, a quantum-assisted agentic distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) framework is proposed in which the dispatch problem of each control slot is formulated as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem by Belief-Desire-Intention extended (BDIx) agents and is solved by a portfolio of quantum, quantum-inspired and classical solvers. Solver selection is elevated to a first-class agentic deliberation action of the coordinator agent. Learned beliefs about solver latencies are maintained and the solver intention that is expected to satisfy the prevailing deliberation deadline is committed in each slot. In addition, a belief-shaped storage valuation mechanism is introduced through which the storage agent prices its energy at a discounted future-peak value, injecting intertemporal information into the otherwise myopic per-slot optimization. The framework is evaluated on a 24-hour simulation of a grid-connected microgrid with photovoltaic, wind, battery, genset and demand-response assets, with the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) executed by statevector simulation and benchmarked per slot against tabu search, simulated annealing, binary particle swarm optimization, greedy descent and exhaustive enumeration. Zero deliberation deadlines are missed, the committed dispatch attains the exact optimum on every slot and the realized daily cost of 146.24 EUR equals the exact lower bound, with 97.83 percent renewable utilization and zero unserved energy. When the storage valuation mechanism is deactivated, the daily cost is increased to 152.75 EUR, a 4.5 percent increase.

Effective demand response in smart microgrids requires prosumers to cooperate voluntarily under strategic self-interest, a coordination problem structurally equivalent to a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma on a social network. This paper presents a multi-agent simulation in which a Large Language Model (LLM) Influence Compiler issues structured demand-response directives to a population of heterogeneous prosumer agents, each governed by a hybrid decision architecture combining game-theoretic base probability (derived from payoff history, neighbour imitation, and exploitation memory) with LLM narrative evaluation of incoming coordination signals. The hybrid architecture resolves a key methodological challenge: LLMs aligned via Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) exhibit strong cooperation bias when used as direct decision-makers, producing flat dynamics regardless of grid conditions. By separating strategic reasoning from grounded narrative evaluation, the model generates realistic prosumer behaviour across six personality archetypes, with baseline cooperation near 50% and clear differentiation under influence. Compiled structured directives achieve 33.3% demand-curtailment cooperation versus 27.0% for unstructured messaging and 28.0% for a no-intervention baseline ($Δ_\mathrm{comp} = +0.063$), with the advantage preserved across both grounded and idealized agent substrates ($Δ= +0.083$) and across all resistance levels ($R = 0.1$ to $0.7$). Hub-targeted dissemination via high-centrality network nodes outperforms peripheral or random targeting, confirming that grid topology provides mechanistic amplification independent of message content. These results suggest that structured LLM compilation, grounded agent reasoning, and network-aware targeting are complementary design principles for scalable, interpretable demand-response coordination in smart-city energy systems.

Accurate short-term forecasting of residential energy load and indoor temperature is essential for home energy management systems, grid-level demand response, and community energy efficiency efforts. Domain adaptation and transfer learning have shown promise for improving forecasting accuracy under data heterogeneity and scarcity commonly seen in residential settings. However, progress is limited by the lack of comprehensive residential datasets: existing benchmarks are narrow in target coverage and rarely support structured cross-domain evaluation. We introduce RESCAST-100K, a large-scale residential forecasting benchmark for studying cross-domain generalization. It provides a configuration-driven interface that instantiates source and target domains along interpretable axes, including geography, climate zone, wall construction, and heating equipment, enabling systematic evaluation of transfer learning, domain adaptation, and zero-shot generalization under controlled domain shifts. The benchmark covers approximately 100,000 EnergyPlus-simulated U.S. homes derived from ResStock, with 15-minute time series for three coupled targets per home: total load, HVAC load, and indoor temperature. These are paired with weather channels, HVAC setpoints, and over 40 static building covariates. RESCAST-100K also integrates five real-world residential datasets under a unified schema, supporting sim-to-real evaluation on the same tasks. We benchmark recurrent, attention-based, and MLP-mixer architectures for zero-shot performance across domains, missing-input conditions, and forecasting tasks. Cross-attention and MLP-mixer models consistently outperform recurrent and classical transformer baselines under domain shift. RESCAST-100K is intended to aid the machine learning and building analytics communities advance cross-domain residential forecasting at home, community, and grid scale.

Effective scheduling in the energy sector is essential to ensure the reliable operation of electrical grids and their connected assets by, for instance, optimizing the dispatch of generation units and storage systems. An effective planning strategy must (a) accommodate advanced and potentially non-linear system models -- exploiting the increasing data availability of modern grids, and (b) explicitly handle uncertainties arising, for instance, from the integration of renewable energy sources. While existing approaches can address either non-linearity (e.g., Monte Carlo Tree Search) or uncertainty (e.g., stochastic mathematical optimization), there is a lack of planning techniques capable of addressing both challenges simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we propose a Stochastic Scenario-Structured Tree Search (S3TS) algorithm that explicitly represents uncertainty through scenario trees while enabling the integration of advanced non-linear models. We evaluate S3TS on a simulated demand response signal publication problem, largely mimicking the imbalance settlement mechanism in Belgium. The results demonstrate near-optimal performance in linear, analytically tractable settings, with costs within 14% of the mathematically optimal solution conditioned to the scenario trees. In highly non-linear scenarios, S3TS significantly outperforms baseline methods, achieving cost reductions of up to 51% and 5.4% compared to a myopic algorithm and deterministic MCTS, respectively.

Electrified chemical processes are incentivized by exposure to time-varying electricity markets to operate flexibly, but participating in demand response schemes can require satisfying terminal constraints over long horizons. Specifically, terminal constraints may be required when computing optimal schedules in order to preserve dynamic stability. Model-based optimization methods are computationally costly, and data-driven scheduling via reinforcement learning (RL) faces severe credit-assignment challenges. We integrate Goal-Space Planning (GSP) with Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), using learned temporally abstract models over discrete subgoals to propagate value across extended horizons. Using a simulated air separation benchmark, we demonstrate the proposed approach improves sample efficiency over standard DDPG while satisfying terminal storage constraints, mitigating myopic control behavior.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), six scenario sweeps, and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations. These datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, and Lag-Llama) yields MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmark suites. The same models provide forecast confidence bands through Latin-hypercube perturbations of demand-side parameters, enabling forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) unavailable on standard TSF datasets and demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH. Interactive demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HyeminGu/ISOMORPH-demo.

Extreme weather and volatile wholesale electricity markets expose residential consumers to catastrophic financial risks, yet demand response at the distribution level remains an underutilized tool for grid flexibility and energy affordability. While a demand-response program can shield consumers by issuing financial credits during high-price periods, optimizing this sequential decision-making process presents a unique challenge for reinforcement learning despite the plentiful offline historical smart meter and wholesale pricing data available publicly. Offline historical data fails to capture the dynamic, interactive feedback loop between an electric utility's pricing signals and customer acceptance and adaptation to a demand-response program. To address this, we introduce DR-Gym, an open-source, online Gymnasium-compatible environment designed to train and evaluate demand-response from the electric utility's perspective. Unlike existing device-level energy simulators, our environment focuses on the market-level electric utility setting and provides a rich observational space relevant to the electric utility. The simulator additionally features a regime-switching wholesale price model calibrated to real-world extreme events, alongside physics-based building demand profiles. For our learning signal, we use a configurable, multi-objective reward function for specifying diverse learning objectives. We demonstrate through baseline strategies and data snapshots the capability of our simulator to create realistic and learnable environments.

Climate volatility, regional production concentration, labor constraints, cyber risk, and dependence on long-distance fresh-produce supply chains expose vulnerabilities in U.S. fresh-produce and specialty-crop systems. Controlled environment agriculture (CEA) can reduce some exposure by moving selected production into protected, sensor-rich environments, but recent failures in venture-backed vertical farming show that CEA cannot be treated as a universal food-security solution. This paper proposes the Controlled Environment Agriculture Resilience Infrastructure Framework, Version 2.0 (CEA-RIF 2.0), for evaluating AI-driven CEA as targeted regional fresh-produce continuity infrastructure. The framework assesses seven dimensions: supply continuity, climate isolation, energy and grid integration, water and nutrient circularity, cyber-physical reliability, economic viability, and governance and deployment. Drawing on U.S. government reports, peer-reviewed CEA and energy literature, demand-response research, cybersecurity standards, international smart-agriculture programs, 2025-2026 financing and policy signals, and public autonomous-greenhouse datasets, the paper argues that AI creates resilience value only when it improves measured operational outcomes such as climate stability, energy flexibility, yield consistency, anomaly detection, labor productivity, and safe recovery from faults. The analysis reframes AI-driven CEA as a cyber-physical infrastructure problem: energy-aware, grid-interactive, secure, interoperable, regionally distributed, financially disciplined, and connected to public resilience goals. The paper concludes with a research agenda for interagency testbeds, open datasets, standardized metrics, demand-response pilots, and cyber-physical reference architectures.

The ongoing shift towards decentralization of the electric energy sector, driven by the growing electrification across end-use sectors, and widespread adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), necessitates their active participation in the electricity markets to support grid operations. Furthermore, with bi-directional energy and communication flows becoming standard, intelligent, easy-to-deploy, resource-conservative demand-side participation is expected to play a critical role in securing power grid operational flexibility and market efficiency. This work proposes a market engagement framework that leverages a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MARL) approach to enable individual prosumers to participate in peer-to-peer retail auctions and further aggregate these intelligent prosumers to facilitate effective DER participation in wholesale markets. Ultimately, a Stackelberg game is proposed to coordinate this hierarchical MARL-based DER market participation framework toward enhanced market performance.

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

Buildings account for approximately 40% of global energy consumption, and with the growing share of intermittent renewable energy sources, enabling demand-side flexibility, particularly in heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, is essential for grid stability and energy efficiency. This paper presents a safe deep reinforcement learning-based control framework to optimize building space heating while enabling demand-side flexibility provision for power system operators. A deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm is used as the core deep reinforcement learning method, enabling the controller to learn an optimal heating strategy through interaction with the building thermal model while maintaining occupant comfort, minimizing energy cost, and providing flexibility. To address safety concerns with reinforcement learning, particularly regarding compliance with flexibility requests, we propose a real-time adaptive safety-filter to ensure that the system operates within predefined constraints during demand-side flexibility provision. The proposed real-time adaptive safety filter guarantees full compliance with flexibility requests from system operators and improves energy and cost efficiency -- achieving up to 50% savings compared to a rule-based controller -- while outperforming a standalone deep reinforcement learning-based controller in energy and cost metrics, with only a slight increase in comfort temperature violations.

With grid operators confronting rising uncertainty from renewable integration and a broader push toward electrification, Demand-Side Management (DSM) -- particularly Demand Response (DR) -- has attracted significant attention as a cost-effective mechanism for balancing modern electricity systems. Unprecedented volumes of consumption data from a continuing global deployment of smart meters enable consumer segmentation based on real usage behaviours, promising to inform the design of more effective DSM and DR programs. However, existing clustering-based segmentation methods insufficiently reflect the behavioural diversity of consumers, often relying on rigid temporal alignment, and faltering in the presence of anomalies, missing data, or large-scale deployments. To address these challenges, we propose a novel two-stage clustering framework -- Clustered Representations Optimising Consumer Segmentation (CROCS). In the first stage, each consumer's daily load profiles are clustered independently to form a Representative Load Set (RLS), providing a compact summary of their typical diurnal consumption behaviours. In the second stage, consumers are clustered using the Weighted Sum of Minimum Distances (WSMD), a novel set-to-set measure that compares RLSs by accounting for both the prevalence and similarity of those behaviours. Finally, community detection on the WSMD-induced graph reveals higher-order prototypes that embody the shared diurnal behaviours defining consumer groups, enhancing the interpretability of the resulting clusters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real Australian smart meter datasets demonstrate that CROCS captures intra-consumer variability, uncovers both synchronous and asynchronous behavioural similarities, and remains robust to anomalies and missing data, while scaling efficiently through natural parallelisation. These results...