Flood Inundation Mapping

Emergency managers need to know where floodwater is, how deep it is, and how it will change over the coming hours across an entire river basin. During a flood, however, real-time measurements come from only a handful of stream gauges, and high-resolution hydrodynamic models are too costly to rerun each time new data arrive or to run as large ensembles. We present C-STRIDE, an observation-driven AI digital twin that turns short records from a few stream gauges, together with terrain and rainfall, into basin-wide maps of water depth and extends these predictions up to a day ahead. It is trained on simulations from a calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and needs no separate data-assimilation step. In the Des Plaines River basin near Chicago, six gauges inform predictions over 4.2 million 30-m grid cells. Terrain improves the predictions most, rainfall keeps errors from growing over longer horizons, and together they reduce errors by about 40% compared with gauge records alone. When future rainfall is known, errors remain near 15% one day ahead, compared with nearly 40% without rainfall. Given real instead of simulated gauge records, the model shifts its predictions toward the observed hydrographs at three of six gauges without retraining, and it runs about 150 times faster than the hydrodynamic model. These results show how sparse gauges, terrain, and rainfall can be combined into fast, continuously updated flood predictions, a step toward operational flood digital twins that still requires testing with real-time data and rainfall forecasts.

Performance evaluation for surface-water segmentation commonly uses an aggregate metric such as global intersection-over-union (IoU) to rank model configurations. However, a configuration ranking does not by itself establish why one system performs better, whether a close ordering is stable, or how strongly predictions rely on individual inputs. We examine these distinctions primarily on Sen1Floods11 through repeated configuration comparisons, paired test-chip analysis, fixed-checkpoint input stress tests, and geographic reweighting, with a targeted secondary evaluation of supervised input configurations on GEOID-Flood. The cross-modal student achieves the highest three-seed mean IoU on Sen1Floods11, but close orderings vary across seeds and geographic weighting, while ancillary-input rankings differ between Swin-UNet and U-Net. The GEOID-Flood evaluation shows substantial agreement in supervised ancillary-input effects, although the exact architecture ordering remains configuration dependent. Fixed-checkpoint tests further establish reliance on terrain and WorldCover without establishing a clean-input performance benefit, while target semantics and the later WorldCover prior restrict the evaluation to retrospective all-water segmentation. These results show that aggregate metrics remain useful for ranking complete configurations, but ranking stability, component attribution, input reliance, and deployment scope require distinct evidence. Performance evaluation should therefore match the evidence reported to the claim being made.

Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries. Consequently, current warnings primarily target coastal tsunami height, not onshore inundation. Although machine learning enables instant inundation predictions, they remain deterministic, lacking uncertainty quantification. Here, we develop a probabilistic ensemble model based on a conditional diffusion model (a type of generative AI) that reconciles accuracy with calibration. Validated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake data, our model faithfully tracks the postearthquake uncertainty decreasing over time while accurately predicting inundation depth and extent. Our framework shows that generative AI can shift tsunami forecasting from determinism to probabilism, providing a foundation for next-generation early warning.

Geospatial foundation models aim to learn representations that transfer across regions and sensors, yet evaluating them on specific tasks requires large, high-quality, multi-modal benchmarks that measure how well such models extract value from data. Concerning flood mapping, existing datasets rarely combine bi-temporal SAR and co-registered optical imagery at scale, leaving the value of foundation models for this downstream task largely untested. We introduce GEOID-Flood, a large-scale multi-modal flood segmentation benchmark, derived from Copernicus Emergency Management Service activations, spanning 219 events across 65 countries over ten years. The dataset provides more than 14,000 tiles with co-registered pre- and post-event Sentinel-1, in GRD and RTC format, pre-event Sentinel-2 composite, and DEM, including manually validated labels that separate background from permanent water and flooded water. Using this benchmark, we evaluate foundation models against conventional encoders across single-image, multi-temporal, and multi-modal protocols. We report three main findings: foundation models offer a consistent but modest advantage; optical-SAR fusion with finetuning best resolves transient flooding; and models trained on GEOID-Flood transfer to unseen events better than those trained on existing datasets. Dataset and code available at https://github.com/links-ads/geoid-flood.

Effective flood monitoring is critical for minimizing the impacts of flood disasters on populations and infrastructure. Yet reliable remote sensing across extensive and environmentally diverse regions remains challenging, as most segmentation algorithms lack the generalisation capacity required for large-scale application, while annotated flood data are scarce and unevenly distributed. This study presents an end-to-end multimodal framework for Russian Federation territories sustainable flood monitoring and damage assessment based on synthetic aperture radar data, multispectral imagery, and digital elevation models with their derivatives, forming a 21-channel input. Using a self-collected multimodal dataset covering seven Russian regions, two strategies for water surface detection under limited data conditions were compared: a supervised U-Net++ model and the self-supervised AnySat architecture pre-trained and fine-tuned for the segmentation task. Under the data conditions of this study, supervised learning proved more effective, while the AnySat-based approach offered greater stability and retains advantages for settings where larger unlabelled data or missing modalities at inference are expected. The best flood area predictions were used to estimate flood impact in urban areas in terms of the area affected, material damage, casualties, and ecological and agricultural impact. The estimations were conducted following the official methodology of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. Applied to the 2019 Tulun flood, the obtained results closely matched official assessments, except for material damage, due to the open-source databases usage. The results demonstrate the potential of deep learning and multimodal satellite data integration for scalable, reliable flood monitoring across diverse environmental and data-limited conditions.

Deep learning surrogate models trained with mean-squared-error loss produce statistically accurate but physically unconstrained flood predictions: water may flow uphill, appear spontaneously, or smooth over street-level corridors. We develop a physics-informed training framework for CNN-LSTM models that predict urban flood depths at 15 min intervals over a 128x128 spatial grid. Three differentiable penalty terms are embedded into the loss: (i) a gravity loss penalizing depth increases against the water-surface-elevation gradient, (ii) a continuity loss enforcing local mass conservation with rainfall-adaptive thresholds, and (iii) a topography-aware false-alarm penalty modulated by the topographic wetness index (TWI). We evaluate on the Norfolk, Virginia flood dataset spanning two storm events (August 2017 and September 2022, 300 samples), with all variants trained on identical splits and robustness assessed over repeated random splits and leave-one-storm-out tests. A road-proximal evaluation restricted to a TWI-derived street mask quantifies street-level skill. The physics-constrained model achieves near-zero gravity violations (order 1e-6) and the highest street-channel recall (0.77 +/- 0.09 vs 0.44 +/- 0.10 for the unconstrained baseline), the capability most relevant to traffic routing, and its advantage more than doubles on a held-out storm; a uniform false-alarm variant attains 16% lower mean absolute error but suppresses street recall to 0.25. The TWI-modulated penalty reconciles this trade-off: it improves on the uniform variant on every metric, recovering 60% higher street recall at the lowest MAE among constrained variants and the best street-level F1. These results expose a fundamental tension between aggregate pixel-level error and application-specific physical plausibility, and show that terrain-aware loss modulation offers a principled resolution.

Reliable high-resolution flood extent mapping from satellite imagery remains constrained by limited data fidelity and sensor-specific artifacts. Multispectral optical imagery is degraded by clouds, shadows, and urban confounders, while synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery is affected by speckle noise and sensor co-registration uncertainty. This work presents an integrated flood mapping framework that jointly addresses these limitations through curated datasets and novel learning strategies. We introduce a new Sentinel-2 (S2) and Sentinel-1 (S1) dataset covering the contiguous United States, featuring pixel-accurate 10 m water masks with emphasis on challenging weather conditions and urban environments that are underrepresented in existing benchmarks. High-quality S2 annotations are manually produced using rigorous geospatial labeling protocols and transferred to SAR imagery through weakly labeled temporally coincident acquisitions. To address SAR-specific artifacts, a shift-invariant loss function is employed to tolerate residual geolocation uncertainty between SAR imagery and optical-derived labels, and a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) is trained on multitemporal SAR composites to suppress speckle while preserving flood-relevant spatial structure. Experiments using UNet and UNet++ architectures demonstrate strong multispectral performance (AUPRC up to 0.956) and statistically significant improvements in SAR flood mapping when using shift-invariant loss and CVAE-based despeckling compared to classical filters. These results underscore the importance of dataset fidelity, misalignment-robust training, and demonstrate the viability of generative despeckling for operational flood mapping.

Rapid flood mapping is critical for emergency response, yet optical imagery is often unusable during major flooding and single-temporal SAR is ambiguous, since new inundation, permanent water, and other smooth surfaces produce similar backscatter. This study evaluates whether stable land-context priors can improve post-event SAR flood segmentation when a registered, seasonally matched pre-event acquisition is unavailable. Using the CONUS (Continental United States) subset of ImpactMesh-Flood, we compare four backbones spanning distinct pretraining regimes-a from-scratch CNN UNet, an ImageNet-pretrained UNet, the SAR-pretrained TerraMind Vision Transformer, and the optical-satellite-pretrained DINOv3 Vision Transformer-in SAR-only, SAR+DEM, and SAR+AlphaEarth configurations under an identical fusion design, training protocol, and event-stratified split. Models are selected on a validation flood event and evaluated separately on two held-out events, Hurricane Florence and the Louisiana floods, with three-seed reporting for auxiliary configurations. Both auxiliary priors improve over the observed SAR-only baselines across all backbones and test events. AlphaEarth exceeds DEM on the harder Florence event for every backbone and achieves the best Florence IoU, while DEM is competitive on Louisiana and produces the best result there. The seed analysis reveals a trade-off: DEM is more stable across initializations, whereas AlphaEarth offers higher peak performance and higher recall on the harder event. Cross-event differences track flood-class prevalence and similarity to the training distribution, underscoring the need for per-event evaluation. We reframe single-temporal SAR flood segmentation as an alignment between radar observations and stable land-surface priors, where learned and physical context offer complementary pathways to more reliable rapid flood mapping.

Timely, high-resolution maps of flood extent around settlements are essential for emergency response and damage assessment. We consider airborne RGB imagery for flood mapping as it can be collected rapidly at low cost. To produce flood maps, deep learning models for water segmentation are often used. CNN based and small vision transformer models are used. However, they need much data for adaptation to a change of scenery, i.e., another flooding event. Vision foundation models or large vision transformers are known to generalize across domains. Recently, foundation models for Earth observation became available. They are pretrained on satellite data, whose spatial resolution, viewing geometry, and radiometry differ from nadir RGB imagery. Thus, adaptation is required. We investigate how a satellite-pretrained Earth observation foundation model can be adapted to centimeter-scale floodwater mapping from RGB imagery. Specifically, we fine-tune a model we call Prithvi-2.0-UPN consisting of the Prithvi-EO-2.0-600M Vision Transformer combined with a UPerNet decoder for binary water segmentation on two RGB datasets (BlessemFlood21, NeuenahrFlood). In a first experiment we observe that Prithvi-2.0-UPN reaches state-of-the-art results on BlessemFlood21 and NeuenahrFlood, when trained on their datasets. In a second experiment we show that Prithvi-2.0-UPN performs better than state-of-the-art baseline models for transfer to a new flood event (trained on BlessemFlood21, tested on NeuenahrFlood) in a zero-shot setting. However, the performance indicates room for improvement. In this respect, we investigate in a third experiment how performance improves when further fine-tuning the models with small shares of NeuenahrFlood training data: Prithvi-2.0-UPN improves the fastest and reaches almost the performance level when fully trained on NeuenahrFlood, indicating transfer capabilities.

Rapid and accurate flood prediction is essential for disaster response and mitigation planning. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors in satellites are well-suited for this purpose because they operate independently of weather and daylight conditions. Although SAR-based data enable all-weather flood monitoring, distinguishing flooded land from permanent water remains a significant challenge, particularly when flooding is defined strictly as inundated land. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of convolutional neural network (CNN) and vision transformer architectures for multi-class flood segmentation using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, specifically trained to separate flooded land from permanent water bodies and land. Three state-of-the-art (SOTA)CNN-based models, U-Net, U-Net++, and DeepLabV3 with ResNet-34 backbone, and three SegFormer variants (b0,b1,b2) were evaluated in two benchmark datasets, the ETCI NASA dataset and SenFloods11, using scene-based data splits to ensure a realistic assessment of spatial generalization. The results demonstrate that SegFormer-b2 significantly outperforms the U-Net baseline on the ETCI dataset (higher flood IoU across all 7 test scenes in the Wilcoxon signed-rank test), while after fine-tuning on Sen1Floods11, the advantage narrows to within the range of scene variability and is concentrated in spatially fragmented flood events. The study includes both qualitative and quantitative explainability techniques to visually comprehend model decisions and systematically assess prediction reliability. Qualitative analysis reveals that SegFormer-b2 produces more spatially coherent Grad-CAM activations focused on flood-relevant features, while U-Net generates more informative uncertainty estimates along flood boundaries.

Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, and their increasing frequency under climate change makes satellite-based inundation mapping essential for disaster response. Geospatial foundation models pretrained on satellite archives offer geographic transferability, but their operational reliability across diverse, unseen events remains uncharacterized. Here we deploy Prithvi-EO-2.0 across 19 out-of-distribution flood events (2017-2025) spanning six continents, eight climate zones, and six flood mechanisms, validating against two independent reference products. Detection accuracy depended jointly on land cover and flood type, with cropland yielding the highest agreement (IoU=52%) and riverine events the strongest detection (F1=0.69), while tree cover and built-up areas showed near-zero detection (IoU=4%) regardless of flood mechanism. Dual-reference validation revealed that apparent model error partly reflects definitional inconsistency between reference products rather than detection failure. Iterative pipeline testing identified 23 failure modes, with pipeline engineering dominating initial error over model capacity. These findings establish environment-dependent detection boundaries for operational satellite flood mapping.

Accurate and scalable flood mapping remains challenging due to limited ground observations, heterogeneous terrain conditions, and the difficulty of enforcing hydrodynamic consistency within data-driven models. This work introduces a physics-guided deep learning framework that integrates multi-modal remote sensing (Sentinel-1 SAR, Sentinel-2 optical imagery, and DEM-derived terrain features) with constraints from the depth-averaged shallow water equations (SWE). The proposed hybrid architecture combines a UNet to capture fine-scale spatial details with a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to model basin-scale hydraulic interactions, while physics-informed residual losses ensure mass and momentum consistency. Evaluated across diverse floodplain settings, the hybrid model achieves an Intersection over Union of 0.82 and an F1 score of 0.90 for flood extent prediction, outperforming UNet-only and FNO-only baselines. Using hydrodynamic simulations as reference data, the model achieves an RMSE of 0.21 m for water depth and 0.15 m/s for flow velocity. Physics consistency is maintained, with low residuals and mass imbalance below 2.1%. Ablation studies confirm that removing physicsbased regularization significantly degrades performance, underscoring the value of physical constraints for stability and generalization. These results demonstrate that embedding hydrodynamic principles into deep learning yields more accurate, reliable, and physically coherent flood predictions, offering strong potential for operational monitoring and large-scale deployment.

Flooding is the most pervasive natural disaster worldwide. Timely and accurate flood inundation mapping are essential for informing disaster risk management. Optical satellite missions provide high-resolution, multispectral observations critical for flood detection and inundation mapping. However, their operational utility is severely constrained by cloud cover during extreme precipitation events. Conventional cloud-removal techniques based on temporal compositing or interpolation often fail to capture inundation dynamics. In this study, we introduce a cloud-removal framework for flood imagery based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models, leveraging the Masked Diffusion Transformer architecture. The proposed approach exploits self-attention mechanisms to capture wider spatial context and employs masked token modeling to explicitly learn the reconstruction of cloud-obscured regions. Trained on multispectral Sentinel-2B flood scenes with realistic cloud patterns, the model generates cloud-free image realizations that preserve both visual fidelity and hydrological consistency. Reconstruction performance is evaluated using standard image quality metrics alongside flood-specific hydrological measures, demonstrating improved continuity of water bodies and preservation of spectral signatures critical for water detection indices. The results indicate that diffusion-based generative modeling offers a robust and physically consistent alternative for cloud removal in optical flood monitoring, enabling more reliable, continuous observations to support disaster risk management and flood-related decision making.

Rapid and accurate flood extent mapping from Remote Sensing data, such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), is critical for operational disaster response, but standard Deep Learning models often produce physically impossible predictions due to a lack of hydrological constraints. While PhysicsInformed Neural Networks (PINNs) attempt to address this by embedding governing laws directly into the loss function, their application to real-world remote sensing data frequently fails. Enforcing rigid spatial derivatives (e.g., the 2D Shallow Water Equations) onto unconditioned latent spaces attempting to fit noisy SAR speckle causes catastrophic gradient divergence, a phenomenon we term Physics Shock. In this paper, we propose a novel Uncertainty-Aware PINN framework tailored specifically for applied Earth Observation that addresses this instability. By integrating a dynamic Warm-Start protocol and modeling heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty via a negative log-likelihood objective, the network learns to dynamically relax physical constraints in regions of high sensor noise while strictly enforcing them in high-confidence areas. Evaluated on the Sen1Floods11 dataset, our probabilistic Attention-Gated FNO-UNet successfully stabilizes multi-objective optimization, achieving a +25% relative improvement in Intersection over Union (IoU) compared to deterministic baselines. Furthermore, through Deep Ensembles, we successfully disentangle intrinsic sensor noise from out-of-distribution terrain ignorance, providing operational agencies with highly calibrated, physically consistent confidence bounds for robust disaster mitigation and real-time decision-making.

Post-disaster situational awareness relies heavily on understanding both the extent and the volume of floodwaters. While 2D semantic segmentation provides accurate flood masking, it lacks the vertical dimension required to assess navigability and structural risk. This paper presents a geometric "Water Surface Elevation" approach for estimating flood depth from monocular aerial imagery. Our pipeline utilizes Mask2Former, a state-of-the-art transformer-based segmentation model, to generate precise 2D flood masks. These masks are fused with Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to identify the water-land boundary, calculate a global water surface elevation ($Z_{water}$), and compute per-pixel depth based on the principle of local hydrostatic equilibrium. We evaluate this workflow using the FloodNet and CRASAR-U-DROIDS datasets, demonstrating how high-performance segmentation can be leveraged to extract 3D volumetric data from 2D imagery without the latency of hydrodynamic simulations.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is widely used for flood monitoring due to its all-weather and day-night imaging capability. However, flood mapping using single-polarization SAR data remains challenging in complex environments where surface and volume scattering coexist. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of cross-polarization fusion of VV and VH SAR observations for improved flood mapping. A deep learning-based segmentation framework is employed to jointly exploit complementary information from VV and VH polarizations. To ensure a fair evaluation, three configurations are compared under identical training conditions: VV only, VH only, and fused VV-VH input. Performance is assessed using standard flood mapping metrics, including Intersection over Union (IoU) and F1-score, along with qualitative visual analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that VV-VH fusion consistently outperforms single-polarization models, particularly in vegetated and heterogeneous flood regions, leading to more accurate flood boundary delineation. The findings highlight the importance of cross-polarization SAR fusion for enhancing the reliability of SAR-based flood mapping in disaster monitoring applications.

Accurate flood water mapping is critical for disaster management, yet current methods struggle to fully exploit the potential of spaceborne imagery. Optical data offers high interpretability but is limited by environmental conditions, whereas SAR provides reliable all-weather coverage with reduced visual interpretability. FLoRA (Fusion Latent for Optical Reconstruction and Area Segmentation) is a cross-modal multi-task framework that jointly reconstructs high-fidelity optical imagery and segments flood water regions from Sentinel 1 SAR by fusing the complementary strengths of optical and SAR data. During training, a lightweight optical teacher (driven by RGB and NDVI priors) provides pyramidal features that guide SAR representations into a fusion latent space via multiscale windowed cross attention and FiLM conditioning, with gated residuals preventing overcorrection. This design enables multi-task learning across two complementary objectives: (a) SAR-to-optical translation for fine-grained RGB reconstruction and (b) flood water region segmentation for hydrologic interpretation. The dual decoders are optimized using Charbonnier SSIM for structural fidelity, edge FFT magnitude losses for spectral realism, and Dice BCE hydrology-aware edge alignment for precise flood water delineation. A feature distillation constraint further aligns fused SAR features with the optical teacher's manifold. Evaluations on SEN1FLOODS11, DEEPFLOOD, and SEN12MS demonstrate that FLoRA surpasses fusion baselines in PSNR, SSIM, and LPIPS, demonstrating that multi-modal fusion within a teacher-guided latent space yields semantically faithful and physically consistent flood-water intelligence from spaceborne observations.

Pakistan experienced an unusually severe flood season between June and December 2025, with cascading impacts on population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Existing operational flood products (e.g., UNOSAT) provide valuable episode-level snapshots but rarely deliver spatially and temporally continuous inundation maps at near-real-time latency within the country. We present a multi-sensor, ensemble-based remote-sensing framework for continuous flood nowcasting in Pakistan that integrates Sentinel-1 SAR, Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel (HLS L30 and S30), MODIS, and VIIRS observations on a harmonized grid in Google Earth Engine. The framework employs a tiered nowcasting ensemble that prioritizes higher-resolution sensors (Sentinel-1 and HLS) and falls back to MODIS and VIIRS when necessary, preserving daily continuity of flood extent at each sensor's native resolution. Applied to the 2025 monsoon period, the system generates near-real-time, spatially consistent inundation maps across Pakistan. As a nowcasting case study, we track the super-flood of 26 August-7 September 2025 day by day, demonstrating the framework's ability to capture the evolving flood footprint in near real time and extend beyond the temporal limits of episodic mapping products. Validation against GloFAS discharge anomalies and precipitation datasets (CHIRPS v3.0, MSWEP) shows strong agreement with observed hydrometeorological conditions. By integrating nowcast outputs with exposure layers (WorldPop, ESA WorldCover, Giga-HOTOSM), the framework enables rapid estimation of affected populations, cropland, and critical infrastructure, supporting timely disaster response and resilience planning in South Asia.

Urban flooding affects lives and infrastructure worldwide. Mapping inundation in complex urban environments from satellite imagery remains challenging due to limited spatial resolution, infrequent acquisitions, and cloud cover. We present Urban Flood Observations (UFO), a global, hand-labeled dataset of post-flood inundation in diverse urban settings. UFO comprises 215 image chips (1024 by 1024 pixels) from 14 flood events between 2017 and 2021, derived from 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Each chip is annotated with two classes: 'inundated' (all visible surface water, including floodwater and pre-existing water bodies (permanent or seasonal)) and 'non-inundated'. To demonstrate the dataset's utility, we trained a segmentation model using leave-one-event-out cross-validation, achieving a mean Intersection over Union (IoU) of 77.3. We also used UFO to evaluate two widely used surface water products, the Sentinel-1-based NASA IMPACT model and Google's 10 m Dynamic World water class, which yielded IoUs of 44.1 and 48.1, respectively. UFO is publicly available to support the development and validation of urban inundation mapping methods.

The increasing frequency and severity of global flood events highlights the need for the development of rapid and reliable flood prediction tools. This process traditionally relies on computationally expensive hydraulic simulations. This research presents a prediction tool by developing a deep-learning based surrogate model to accurately and efficiently predict the maximum water level across a grid. This was achieved by conducting a series of experiments to optimize a U-Net architecture, patch generation, and data handling for approximating a hydraulic model. This research demonstrates that a deep learning surrogate model can serve as a computationally efficient alternative to traditional hydraulic simulations. The framework was tested using hydraulic simulations of the Wupper catchment in the North-Rhein Westphalia region (Germany), obtaining comparable results.