Long-Term
Momentum
11 papers in the last four weeks, up 83% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.
Latest papers 86
Exact stochastic equations for non-equilibrium dynamics are rarely accessible. We show that the long-time evolution of stochastic dynamics can be predicted from configuration pairs at a fixed short time lag, without knowledge of the equation of motion. Generative diffusion models learn the finite-time transition kernel from these pairs, and iterating it propagates the dynamics far beyond the training lag. For two-dimensional Model B, the diffusive dynamics of a conserved order parameter, the learned kernels reproduce dynamic critical scaling and self-similar coarsening. Agreement with direct simulations persists on lattices twice the largest training size and for initial ensembles absent from training. For driven colloids in a periodic optical potential, ten minutes of measured trajectories suffice to predict the particle current and mean passage time over the next twenty minutes within experimental uncertainty. Short-time observations thus contain the information needed to predict emergent non-equilibrium dynamics at much longer times.
LongTake: Learning to Sustain Dynamics in Long-Horizon Video Generation
World models, game simulators, and long-take video creation require coherent scene evolution and sustained dynamics over extended durations. Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion provides a natural framework for long-horizon generation, yet extended rollouts often become near-static or lose visual quality. We hypothesize that these failures reflect the limited guidance provided by short-video supervision on how ongoing scene dynamics develops over longer durations. This motivates us to introduce LongTake, a two-stage training pipeline built around Long-Horizon Teacher Forcing (TF) on curated real long videos. Long-Horizon TF trains the AR model to predict later frames conditioned on long ground-truth video prefixes, extending direct supervision beyond the short training horizon. This supervision is designed to help the model sustain dynamics and preserve visual quality during long-horizon generation. Our central finding is that this training stage strengthens direct initialization for distribution matching distillation (DMD) under student self-rollout, without the intermediate few-step distillation stage used in standard pipelines. Under the same five-second DMD training setup, our initialization yields substantially higher dynamic degree than short horizon TF initialization on 30-second rollouts at comparable aesthetic quality, and surpasses the evaluated baselines in both measures. Hybrid DMD further reuses this teacher to extend supervision to later frames of the self-rollout while retaining bidirectional joint supervision over the initial window. On long-horizon self-rollouts, LongTake lies on the Pareto front of dynamic degree and aesthetic quality, and Hybrid DMD attains the highest dynamic degree among evaluated methods at both 30s and 60s.
Continual Learning of Dynamical Systems in Recurrent Neural Networks through Recyclable Unit Gating
Dynamical Systems Reconstruction (DSR) aims to infer models from observed time series that reproduce a system's qualitative long-term behavior. Continual DSR (cDSR) requires learning new systems while preserving previously learned dynamics, yet even small parameter updates in recurrent models can qualitatively alter their behavior over long autonomous rollouts. We benchmark established continual learning (CL) methods spanning parameter regularization, replay, and parameter isolation on the fully trainable and interpretable Almost-Linear RNN (AL-RNN). Parameter isolation preserves earlier dynamics most effectively, but excessive task-specific allocations can rapidly exhaust a fixed-size network. We therefore introduce Continually-Recyclable Unit-Gating (CRUG), which conserves capacity through compact allocation and forward transfer. Differentiable gates trained with an -based penalty select task-specific units, while unused units are recycled for subsequent tasks. Directed connections allow later tasks to reuse earlier representations without affecting the dynamics of previously committed units. CRUG achieves the strongest reconstruction--capacity trade-off among the tested methods with zero forgetting and reliably learns a heterogeneous sequence of nonlinear and chaotic systems. Furthermore, we show that forward transfer is more pronounced and useful when tasks share similar underlying dynamics. Lastly, we demonstrate that CRUG's advantages extend beyond autonomous cDSR to sequential cognitive tasks.
MultiTalk: Scaling Full-Duplex Speech Models to Long, Multi-Party, Bilingual Conversation
End-to-end full-duplex speech models have brought open-source machine conversation closer to human-like interaction, yet existing systems remain limited in two intertwined dimensions: long-context robustness and multi-party interaction. Real-world scenarios such as meetings, group lessons, and social-robot reception require a single model to track, contextualize, and respond to multiple speakers over extended durations. Progress is constrained by both data and evaluation: open multi-party speech corpora remain small and are not designed for codec-frame-level full-duplex modeling, while existing long-audio benchmarks focus on passive listening and speech-to-speech benchmarks are mostly short and dyadic. We extend the Moshi paradigm jointly along the long-horizon and multi-party axes in English and Chinese. First, we release 57.6k hours of synthetic training data ( and ) for long-form, multi-party, English-Chinese full-duplex dialogue, with controllable length, participant count, turn-taking, overlap, backchannels, interruptions, addressee shifts, and long-range coreference. Second, we introduce , built from real human recordings, for evaluating long-form, multi-party, bilingual full-duplex dialogue. Conversations average 32.6 minutes and include probes for long-range entity tracking, topic coherence, and addressee selection. Third, we train a bilingual Moshi-style model that sustains coherent multi-party English-Chinese conversations over extended durations and substantially outperforms open-source baselines including Moshi, MiniCPM-o-4.5, and Qwen3-Omni-30B-A3B-Instruct on MultiTalkBench.
Long-Term Memory-Guided Enhancement for Target Perception in Audio-Language Models
Audio large language models (ALLMs) can reason about the content of audio recordings to perform complex tasks. However, these capabilities usually collapse in real-world environments when background noise and competing sources mix the target sound. Inspired by long-term memory in human listening, we propose Long-Term Memory-Guided Audio Enhancement (LTM-AE) to improve selective target perception by refining the audio representations of ALLMs without training. LTM-AE extracts representations in hidden states from separate clean reference recordings as long-term memory for each category, guiding enhancement toward a user-specified listening target. We reconstruct incoming audio tokens in the selected category long-term memory and interpolate the reconstructions with the original tokens before language backbone decoding. This interpolation controls the influence of stored auditory experience while keeping all ALLM parameters fixed. Diagnostic readouts across twenty sound categories and three ALLMs show that LTM-AE strengthens responses to a specified target amid three interfering sources. Averaged over constrained and free-form classification, accuracy gains over raw mixtures range from 29.53 to 46.15 percentage points across multiple open source models. For speech content recovery, LTM-AE with an additional learned token-level gate reduces Qwen2-Audio's word error rate from 23.07% to 14.77%. This work takes an initial step toward using principles of human long-term memory to enhance ALLMs for real-world listening. Our code is available at https://github.com/aynlp/ltm-audio-code
Reward-rate Policy Gradient for Efficient Machine Learning Engineering Agents
Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) techniques focus on maximizing expected cumulative reward, where each action assumes to take a constant unit of time. However, this assumption does not hold for agentic RL tasks such as machine learning engineering (MLE) agents, where actions involve data loading, feature engineering, and model training that take variable durations. Efficiency matters in modern agentic RL where actions are costly. To address this limitation, we adapt from continuous-time RL and Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) formulation and propose Reward-rate Policy Gradient (RPG), where we focus on optimizing the reward rate -- the long-term reward per unit of time. RPG estimates the reward rate from off-policy samples, then charges each action for the time it consumes at that rate. We first conduct theoretical analysis in the bandit setting to establish that RPG approximates the optimal reward rate and empirically demonstrate it outperforms baselines while avoiding enumeration over the policy space, a known issue for an existing method. We then further apply RPG on a small language model (Qwen3.5-4B) with self-improvement loops and empirically show it obtains higher rewards within a fixed time budget than vanilla RL on MLE-Bench and NanoGPT, with a 19.2% and 85.7% margin, respectively. Our method provides a practical solution for optimizing performance under wait time considerations in modern agentic RL tasks, where actions interact with external environments and cost time.
Long Time No See: Benchmarking VLMs for Out-of-Sight Spatiotemporal Reasoning in Egocentric Videos
Real-world AI systems must reason about objects that are no longer visible: an AR assistant guiding a user back to an object used earlier, a household robot retrieving an item someone put away. This requires not just recalling where an object was last seen, but updating its state when it is moved and retaining that update once it leaves view. We refer to this as out-of-sight spatiotemporal reasoning. We introduce Beyond3D, the first VQA benchmark to isolate this ability in dynamic egocentric video: every query targets an object that has been relocated and has since left the field of view. We create our questions from HD-EPIC annotations, building a visibility track for each dynamic object from its 3D position, the camera pose, and the scene geometry to understand at each moment whether it is visible, occluded, or out of view. Beyond3D comprises 9,000 questions in eight types over 135 videos from nine participants, organized as one reasoning chain: visual grounding (is the target observable now), temporal grounding (when it was last visible and last placed), scene localization (which fixture anchors that location), and 3D spatial perception (where it lies relative to the current viewpoint or another object in the scene). We benchmark nine general-purpose and spatially specialized VLMs. The best model reaches 42.2% against 29.7% chance and text-only baselines reaching 31.9%, with the largest failures in recovering when an object was last visible, showing that tracking object movement out of sight remains far from solved for current VLMs.
Papers Without Code: Availability of GitHub Repositories Linked in *CL Publications
Source code and data published at computational linguistics (*CL) venues are increasingly being shared via GitHub. While this generally is a favourable development for the accessibility and potential reusability of research artifacts in natural language processing (NLP), the long-term availability of such repositories has not been evaluated. In this squib, we discuss the availability of repositories linked in papers published in the Computational Linguistics (CL) journal as well as at ACL and its co-located events over the past ten years. Contrary to our expectations, we find that GitHub repositories linked in more recent ACL publications are unavailable at similar rates as in older publications, in parts due to an increase in empty and placeholder repositories. Similar trends hold for other *CL venues, but not for platforms other than GitHub.
From HL to H+L-1 Parameters: A Hankel-Toeplitz Forecaster for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Linear forecasters have shown competitive accuracy against Transformer-based models in long-term time series forecasting. We study how classical stationary prediction theory can guide parameter sharing for more compact linear forecasters. For centered second-order stationary processes with nonsingular history covariance, the minimum-MSE finite-window linear predictor factors into a Hankel cross-covariance matrix and an inverse Toeplitz covariance matrix. Shared lags and scale cancellation specify this predictor using autocorrelations for lookback and horizon . Building on the innovations representation, our Hankel-Toeplitz Forecaster (HTF) learns one impulse response that defines both an inverse filter and a forecast map. We characterize the finite-history correction and, under summability assumptions, bound the excess risk of truncating the true filters. HTF uses trainable coefficients while allowing a full-rank forecasting matrix. Across seven benchmarks at , its horizon-averaged MSE is within 1.2% of Dense Linear on each dataset with 75-229 times fewer trainable parameters.
Multi-Agent Orchestration of 3GPP Channel Estimators
Pilot-aided channel estimation is a decisive block in orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) receivers for both 5G New Radio (5G-NR) and Long-Term Evolution (LTE). A large body of estimators exists, from simple least-squares (LS) interpolation to statistically optimal linear minimum-mean-square-error (LMMSE) variants and, more recently, deep convolutional denoisers, yet no single estimator is uniformly best: the winner depends on the propagation scenario, the numerology, the operating signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the mobility (Doppler), and the antenna configuration. In this paper, we quantify this fact through a unified study of eight literature estimators evaluated over the 3GPP TR~38.901 Urban-Macro (UMa), Urban-Micro (UMi), and Rural-Macro (RMa) channels generated with NVIDIA Sionna, for both 5G-NR and LTE numerologies, in single-input single-output (SISO) and multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) settings. We then propose a \emph{condition-adaptive multi-agent orchestrator} that treats each estimator as an independent agent and dispatches, per operating condition, to the agent that is best on a validation split without any genie knowledge. The orchestrator tracks the per-realization oracle to within ~dB and improves the normalized mean-square error (NMSE) over the best \emph{fixed} strategy by up to ~dB at high SNR, where the low-SNR champion is no longer optimal. Because the agents are independent, running them concurrently delivers this best-of-eight accuracy at essentially single-estimator latency: a data-parallel partition scales the wall-clock nearly as with workers (up to ), whereas naive by-algorithm partitioning is Amdahl-limited by the heaviest agent. The results substantiate multi-agent orchestration as a practical route to robust channel estimation across heterogeneous 5G-NR/LTE deployments.
Sharp Convergence of Wasserstein Gradient Flows for Spectrally Nonnegative Interaction Energies
We study the long-time behavior of Wasserstein gradient flows for interaction energies
on a closed manifold . For kernels diagonal in a Laplace eigenbasis with nonnegative spectral coefficients, we prove a differential inequality relating the relative entropy to the energy gap. Consequently, for any nonnegative initial density , , the energy gap is integrable in time and satisfies
If all spectral coefficients are positive, the flow converges weakly to the constant measure. These interaction energies need not be geodesically convex in Wasserstein space, and the associated flows contain no diffusion; their global convergence therefore does not follow from standard Wasserstein gradient flow theory. The kernels covered by our results include zonal kernels on spheres, kernels arising in transformer models, regularized Riesz kernels, and inverse fractional Laplacian kernels. We also investigate the sharpness of the rate. For any smooth kernel in this class with infinitely many positive spectral coefficients and any , we construct a solution of the linearized flow whose energy is comparable to along a sequence of times tending to infinity. Moreover, for any , by choosing a suitable inverse fractional Laplacian kernel on the flat torus, we construct an exact solution of the nonlinear Wasserstein gradient flow whose energy is comparable to . The nonlinear construction is based on uniform-in-time estimates for the evolution of the dyadic Fourier coefficient blocks and a blockwise energy-persistence argument. These estimates also yield a uniform-in-time quantitative comparison between the nonlinear Wasserstein gradient flow and its linearization.
Multi-Term Fourier Graph Neural Network with Sample Relationship Learning for Enhanced Remaining Useful Life Prediction
Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) is essential for effective predictive maintenance. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs), which can model both temporal and spatial relationships by representing time series data as a sequence of graphs, have shown exceptional performance in RUL prediction. However, current ST-GNNs face several drawbacks. First, they require domain expertise or significant computational power to establish graph structures prior to deploying GNNs. Second, the models are restricted to capture temporal dependencies within a predefined fixed-size lookback window. This restriction ignores the common issue of varying time series lengths, leading the prediction model to miss short-term or long-term dependencies. Finally, conventional models often fail to capture the inherent relationships between samples generated from adjacent time windows, which are crucial for improving both the accuracy and robustness of predictions. To address the aforementioned issues, we introduce a novel framework called Multi-Term Fourier Graph Neural Network with Sample Relationship Learning (MTFGN-SRL). Rather than treating the sample as a sequence of graphs, we consider it as a single complete graph and utilize a Fourier Graph Neural Network (FGN) to capture the spatio-temporal information in the frequency domain. We propose a multi-term learning module that utilizes multiple lookback windows to generate samples with varying terms, which are then fed into the FGN to enhance the extraction of useful information from the data. Finally, we develop a sample relationship learning module by training a heterogeneous GNN to identify inter-sample relationships, resulting in enhanced accuracy and robustness in predictions. Evaluations on the CMAPSS dataset demonstrate MTFGN-SRL's superior performance over state-of-the-art methods in RUL prediction.
Towards Sustainable Magnetic Resonance Imaging: Insights from long-term, high-resolution energy recordings across an entire scanner fleet
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is among the most energy-intensive diagnostic modalities in healthcare, yet its energy consumption and the factors influencing it remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to establish a comprehensive baseline of MRI energy consumption by characterizing energy demand across a scanner fleet, examining scanner utilization and operating patterns in clinical practice. Concurrently, it investigates the relationships between energy consumption and relevant operational and acquisition features. On average, a single MRI measurement consumed 0.43 kWh, while a complete examination consumed 13.50 kWh. In general, substantial differences in energy consumption were observed between MRI scanners and their corresponding operating modes (scan, idle, and eco-power mode). These variations may be related to differences in scanner operating patterns, employed examination protocols, and their resulting acquisition parameters. Idle and eco-power modes accounted for more cumulative energy consumption than active scanning. However, these energy shares should always be interpreted in relation to scanner occupancy, as utilization patterns strongly influence the distribution of energy across those operating modes. Lastly, linear regression analysis showed that energy consumption was more strongly associated with scan duration than with average power, suggesting that scan duration may be an important factor influencing MRI energy consumption. ...
Recursive Quantum Long Short-Term Memory for Stable Short-Horizon Temperature Forecasting
Quantum long short-term memory (QLSTM) models extend recurrent sequence learning with variational quantum circuits, but their optimization behavior can vary substantially across random initializations and temporal contexts. This paper evaluates a recursive QLSTM architecture against a standard QLSTM for one-step-ahead prediction of daily minimum and maximum temperature. Using daily weather observations from Toronto and identical training settings, we compare convergence, predictive accuracy, and generalization across input windows of 8, 16, and 32 days over 20 random seeds. The recursive model consistently reaches a near-optimal test loss earlier, reduces mean absolute error and root mean squared error, and exhibits a smaller generalization gap. These results indicate that recursive quantum feature transformations can improve stability and out-of-sample performance for compact hybrid quantum--classical temporal models.
Interactive Memory Learning for Long-Term Conversations
Recent advancements in large language models have significantly enhanced the capabilities of agents in modeling long-term conversations. Despite these successes, existing approaches typically adopt a static heuristic paradigm, where information is passively archived without adaptive memory valuation. Consequently, these methods fail to self-evolve or align their memory management with evolving user needs. To address this, we propose ICML (InteraCtive Memory Learning), a multi-agent framework that transforms the memory mechanism from a passive archive into a learnable, interactive memory policy. Specifically, we first employ a session synthesis pipeline to generate expert data, facilitating rapid test-time adaptation in unseen scenarios. Building on this, ICML utilizes an online reinforcement learning mechanism where a Planner agent selectively encodes high-value information and a Trigger agent dynamically retrieves it to optimize response quality, whereby the two agents co-evolve through continuous interaction feedback. Crucially, both agents are synchronized through a delayed reward mechanism that propagates future feedback back to earlier storage decisions, ensuring memory policies are precisely aligned with user expectations. Experimental results demonstrate that ICML significantly outperforms strong baselines, exhibiting the unique capability to continuously improve response quality as interactions accumulate.
LongAgent: History-Guided Agentic Search for Longitudinal Outcome Prediction
Extracting informative representations from longitudinal data that can predict future outcomes remains a critical challenge in medicine. Medical datasets are inherently heterogeneous, consisting of a large number of variables collected from different sources, sampled with different temporal spacings, and representing different aspects of human health status. This requires identifying those variables with predictive value, processing longitudinal information, and integrating multiple variables for outcome prediction. Here, we propose a novel agent-based approach, LongAgent, that can autonomously search over combinations of variable sets, temporal windows and longitudinal aggregation functions, and identify candidates with promising predictive performance. LongAgent utilises a history memory of previous searches and numerical evidence to guide subsequent exploration. On synthetic data, LongAgent achieves a mean prediction RMSE of 1.7376 and improves over the strongest non-agent baseline by 0.0151 (95% CI: [0.0045,0.0260]; p=0.0273). On a real clinical dataset, it performs comparably to the best baseline.
Spot-the-shift: Evaluating Grounded Image Difference Captioning of Long-term Changes
Long-term change understanding from images of the same place revisited over time is a challenging task with applications in map maintenance and urban infrastructure monitoring. Prior work addresses it either through pixel-level prediction or difference captioning, neither of which is sufficient to reliably measure how well models detect and describe such changes. We introduce SPOT-THE-SHIFT, a human-verified benchmark for grounded image difference captioning of long-term changes in real-world driving scenes. Our benchmark provides natural language captions and spatial masks for structural changes across each image pair. We further propose an evaluation protocol that reliably assesses models' captioning ability, validated through human studies. Benchmarking state-of-the-art MLLMs, we find that models struggle with the fine-grained multi-image spatial capability required for this task. Finally, we develop a synthetic data generation pipeline that improves an off-the-shelf MLLM without sacrificing general capabilities.
UTILMEM: Benchmarking Evidence Utilization in Long-Term Conversational Memory
Long-term memory is increasingly important for conversational agents, yet existing benchmarks primarily measure memory through pointwise factual recall: whether a system can recover isolated facts or event-level details from prior interactions. Real-world memory use, however, often requires a more demanding capability: integrating distributed, implicit, and noisy evidence across extended interaction histories into coherent, task-oriented outputs. We call this capability memory utilization. Here, we introduce UtilMem, a diagnostic benchmark comprising 1,717 instances across five domains, designed to evaluate four underexplored aspects of memory utilization: reasoning over dense histories, identifying implicitly relevant memories, synthesizing distributed evidence into summaries, analyses, or plans, and resisting interference from semantically similar distractors. Evaluating a diverse set of retrieval-based and memory-augmented systems, we find that strong performance on conventional factual-memory benchmarks does not reliably translate into effective memory utilization. Moreover, retrieval alone is insufficient: even when relevant evidence is successfully recovered, systems frequently fail to integrate information across sessions or to distinguish useful evidence from plausible distractors. These findings expose a substantial gap between accessing stored information and using it effectively, and suggest that progress in long-term conversational memory will require architectures that explicitly support evidence integration and robustness to retrieval interference. Code is available at https://github.com/peijunallin/UtilMem.
Doc-REFRAG: Rethinking Multimodal Document Retrieval-Augmented Generation
Real-world knowledge resides in multimodal documents, necessitating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for accurate question answering. However, existing multimodal RAG models are primarily designed for single-image or closed-document settings and exhibit limited accuracy in realistic multi-image scenarios. Moreover, processing numerous retrieved images incurs substantial computational overhead from irrelevant visual tokens. To address these challenges, we introduce DocLongRAG, a large-scale dataset of 343K question--answer pairs, each associated with an average of 37.4 retrieved images to reflect authentic RAG workflows. Building on this dataset, we propose Doc-REFRAG, a question-guided framework that compresses visual tokens into coarse chunks and selectively expands question-relevant ones via a lightweight RL-based selector. Experiments on six benchmarks show that Doc-REFRAG outperforms eleven strong baselines, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy with significantly lower inference latency. Our resources are available at https://github.com/Collab-Gen/Doc-REFRAG.
Performative Privacy: When Differential Privacy Maximizes Utility
Privacy-preserving learning is often motivated by the idea that protecting users' data can preserve trust and thus participation, improving utility in the long term. However, this claim has not been formalized so far. In parallel, performative learning provides a framework for studying learning systems whose deployment affects the data they later observe. In this work, we bring these two perspectives together and introduce performative privacy, where data leakage reduces future participation. We study a simple model where agents repeatedly contribute data for mean estimation but may leave the system when their data is leaked. Privacy is implemented through differentially private mechanisms, creating a trade-off between estimation noise and future participation. We show, through a theoretical study of the dynamics and numerical experiments, that a finite privacy budget can outperform non-private estimation in the long term when the feedback loop between leakage and participation is sufficiently strong. This provides first evidence that differential privacy can be optimal not only as a protection mechanism, but also from the perspective of long-term utility.
LycheeMemory V2: Efficient Long-Term Memory for LLM Agents via Semantic Segment-Level Consolidation
Long-horizon LLM agents must preserve information from past interactions to support future tasks. Existing memory systems typically rely on eager consolidation, invoking LLMs after each interaction to extract, summarize, or update memories. This design makes memory construction increasingly costly as conversations grow. Coarse summarization can reduce construction cost but risks discarding fine-grained contextual evidence, whereas larger retrieval contexts or multi-hop LLM reasoning shift the overhead to query time. We present LycheeMemory V2, an efficient long-term memory framework that replaces turn-level consolidation with semantic segment-level consolidation. Instead of consolidating every interaction, LycheeMemory batches multiple exchanges into segments and encodes each finalized segment into context-independent typed memory records. Segment-level batching lowers LLM encoding frequency, while semantic boundary detection helps preserve coherent event-level and temporal evidence compared with fixed-window batching. The resulting records are organized with lightweight structured indexes for query-planned evidence retrieval. Experiments using GPT-4.1-Mini show that LycheeMemory achieves state-of-the-art performance, reaching 89.22% on LoCoMo and 92.20% on LongMemEval-S. Compared with A-Mem, it reduces construction tokens by 86.0% on LoCoMo and 75.9% on LongMemEval-S without increasing query-time token usage. More broadly, our results suggest that the accuracy--cost trade-off of long-term agent memory depends not only on what information is retained, but also on the granularity at which it is consolidated.
Dual Spatial-Temporal Attribution: Architecture-Aligned Post-Hoc Explainability for Recurrent Graph Anomaly Detection
Deep learning detectors for anomalies in dynamic graphs have reached strong accuracy, yet they remain opaque: when an edge is flagged, the analyst receives a score but no reason. This opacity is untenable in the cooperative, regulated information systems where such detectors are deployed, where automated decisions must be auditable and trustworthy. We address this gap for AddGraph, the foundational GCN+GRU framework for edge-level anomaly detection in dynamic graphs, which to our knowledge has never been equipped with any form of explainability. We present a strictly post-hoc explainability framework, X-AddGraph, built on a Dual Spatial-Temporal Attribution (DSTA) mechanism whose three components are each aligned with one of AddGraph's architectural modules: a gradient-based relevance attribution over the current adjacency structure (spatial), a direct reading of the contextual attention weights already computed during inference (short-term temporal, at zero additional cost), and a gradient rollback through the recurrent hidden states (long-term temporal). Because the detector is frozen, detection performance is preserved exactly (Delta AUC = 0, verified empirically to ten decimal places). On the UCI Message benchmark, our trained AddGraph baseline reaches an average per-snapshot AUC of 0.8705, exceeding the originally published result; X-AddGraph reproduces every score identically while adding explanations where none existed. Evaluated across four edge populations - confident true positives, low-confidence true positives, false positives, and random samples - the long-term attribution identifies historical snapshots carrying significantly more counterfactual signal than random selection (0.127 vs. 0.074), a capability that no spatially-blind explainer can provide. We release our implementation for full reproducibility.
Unsupervised Detection of Groundwater Storage Anomalies in Ghana Using GRACE Satellite Data
Groundwater variability in Ghana remains poorly characterized due to limited long-term in-situ observations. This study investigates groundwater storage anomalies using GRACE-derived data from 2004-2024 combined with statistical analysis and unsupervised machine learning. Groundwater anomalies were standardized using Z-scores, while an ensemble-based Isolation Forest framework was applied for anomaly detection. The results revealed substantial temporal variability, with persistent groundwater deficits during 2004-2009 followed by increasing positive anomalies after 2018. A total of 12 anomalous months were identified, comprising 5 deficit and 7 surplus events, with the strongest anomalies associated with groundwater deficits. Spatial analysis showed more frequent deficit anomalies in northern Ghana and stronger surplus occurrence in southern regions. Comparison with statistical thresholds further indicated that the machine learning framework captured additional subtle deviations beyond conventional threshold-based methods. Overall, the integration of GRACE observations with unsupervised anomaly detection provides a practical framework for groundwater monitoring in data-scarce environments.
OctoLong: Mid-Training On Cross-Repository Code Contexts Enhances Long-Context Modeling
Context lengths of language models (LMs) have dramatically increased, driven by the demands for in-context learning, self-improvement, and long-horizon agentic workflows. Existing long-context corpora, however, are dominated by books, academic articles, and code repositories, which are finite resources and often scarce in long-distance dependencies. In this work, we introduce OctoLong, a context engineering pipeline that instruments an AST parser, a language server backend, and a package manager to facilitate the recursive retrieval of code references, enabling the curation of dependency-rich code contexts of millions of tokens in length. We then train OctoLong-Instruct, a suite of capable long-context open LMs, derived from base models ranging in size from 600M to 14B parameters, via context-extension mid-training on a ~50B-token mixture containing ~6.2B tokens of OctoLong code contexts, followed by ~10B tokens of instruction tuning. Our training ablations and experimental evaluations against 18 state-of-the-art open-weight long-context LMs show that supplanting just 12% of traditional context-extension corpora with OctoLong data yields substantial gains in long-range retrieval, long-term state tracking, repository-level code understanding, and downstream agentic tasks, while also enhancing API usage in short-context coding scenarios.
Long-term Measurements: Towards a Longitudinal Understanding of Human-AI Interactions
Language models have taken on the role of a very new type of technology, by virtue of their "human-ness" and rapid integration into users' daily lives. This combination of features can introduce longitudinal risks---cognitive, developmental and socio-affective changes in humans---that might not surface during a short-term interaction, but can have lasting long-term effects on users. This forms the basis of a critical new mission for NLP: to pivot from static, short-term evaluations of text generations to long-term measurements of behavioral changes, towards a diachronic understanding of human-model interactions. In this work, we draw from measurements used in social science fields that are crucial to understand emergent phenomena in longitudinal data. We discuss how computational methods in the field of NLP need to be combined with such measurements, not only to understand long-term safety risks of human-model interactions, but to help steer model development towards positive rather than negative outcomes for users. This ability to model human behavioral shifts as a function of model interactions can facilitate online rather than post-hoc detection of problematic behaviors, and should be leveraged in alignment frameworks to mitigate long-term risks in users.
LeapTalk: Breaking the Latency-Quality Trade-off in Talking Head Generation
Long-form and real-time talking-head generation remains challenging due to a latency-quality trade-off: inefficient multi-step diffusion prohibits streaming generation, whereas real-time autoregressive approaches suffer from error accumulation and identity drift. To address this drawback, we propose LeapTalk, a novel framework that achieves stable and real-time talking-head generation with a single forward step, scaling to arbitrarily long videos. At the heart of our approach lies a single-step bridge distillation scheme. On the one hand, departing from the conventional noise-to-data paradigm, we introduce a data-to-data transport formulation based on a Brownian bridge. Anchored by a persistent reference, this strategy effectively mitigates identity drift and enhances long-term temporal stability. On the other hand, to enable smooth knowledge transfer from a pre-trained diffusion teacher to the student bridge model, we explore a heterogeneous distillation framework with an SNR-aligned time transformation , which bridges the functional discrepancy between the two models. Moreover, we propose an audio-driven classifier-free guidance mechanism to maintain fine-grained lip synchronization under extreme step reduction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves high-fidelity and temporally consistent video generation with only 1 step at up to 200 FPS, significantly outperforming existing approaches in both efficiency and stability. Project Page: https://zhangrongxiang.github.io/leaptalk-page/
When Do Agent Loops Mistake Stagnation for Progress? Self-Evaluation Bias and Externally Grounded Verification in Long-Running Autonomous LLM Agent Loops
Long-running autonomous agents plan, act, and judge their own completion without human intervention. When an agent grades its own work, self-evaluation bias takes hold: plausible changes are accepted as progress while real-world outcomes stagnate or regress. We name this failure mode the progress mirage and show, with controlled measurement, that it is a question of what the evaluator is grounded in. We built a testbed that holds the agent and its tool surface fixed and manipulates only the information-channel type of the evaluator that gates the loop. A world-state oracle, unfakeable in principle, is enforced by container and network isolation and verified at every run. Across 54 cycles a frontier agent claimed improvement every time, yet 56 percent had a measured delta of zero or below. Self-report was thus uninformative, and the self-verdict gate degenerated into accept-all, eroding the best deployed state it had reached by 19 percent. Even the strongest in-band judge, reading the full artifact text, the change diff, and its own verdict history, accepted cycles of which 44 percent were real-world regressions and rejected 38 percent of real improvements; the preregistered adversarial hypothesis that a strong judge closes the gap was rejected. On a boundary task whose success specification is verifiable from the artifact itself, the same judge's mirage vanished to zero and the gap collapsed within the registered threshold, showing that the gap depends on where the success signal resides. A sign-only variant returning only the acceptance verdict kept real-world output similar to full feedback (110.0 versus 113.0), locating the benefit in the gate's grounding rather than in feedback content. For open-ended objectives whose success signal lives outside the transcript, scaling up the judge is not enough; out-of-band evaluation with real-world access is a structural requirement.
Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: Adaptive Experiment with Post-Commitment Reward Shift
Decision-makers in learning environments face a dilemma when their short-term optimal actions may not favor their long-term benefits the most. To understand the fundamental tradeoff behind the dilemma, we study adaptive experimentation with post-commitment reward shifts. During an experiment phase, the decision-maker may adaptively test multiple options; during a subsequent commitment phase, the decision-maker must commit to a single option, whose reward may differ from its pre-commitment reward. We propose the Reserved Arm Eliminations for Commitment (RAEC) algorithm, which reserves a predetermined portion of the experiment phase to identify the best post-shift option while using the remaining rounds to minimize short-run regret. We establish regret upper bounds for RAEC across all parameter regimes and matching minimax lower bounds, providing a tight characterization of the cost of balancing short-term performance and long-term commitment. We also study two extensions. With prior structural knowledge linking pre- and post-shift rewards, we show that correctly identifying the ranking-changing component of the shift is more important than estimating its absolute magnitude. For settings with concave commitment rewards and portfolio choice, we develop the Reserved Online Stochastic Convex Optimization for Commitment (ROSCOC) algorithm, which directly converts its reserved exploration history into a commitment portfolio and achieves tight regret bound. Finally, we also conduct numerical experiments which confirm that our proposed algorithms achieve the desired regret predicted by our theory, and also outperform other baseline algorithms.
Natural Invariant Measures for Chaotic Game Dynamics: Finding Order in Chaos
We study the long-term behavior of the Multiplicative Weights Update (MWU) algorithm in game settings where learning dynamics frequently fail to converge to Nash equilibria and instead exhibit Li-Yorke chaos. While such chaos precludes the prediction of specific long-term strategy profiles, it does not imply a lack of statistical structure. We demonstrate that natural invariant measures - a fundamental concept from ergodic theory - provide the rigorous framework necessary to find order within this chaos. Focusing on a two-strategy congestion game, we prove that these measures allow for a comprehensive statistical characterization of the dynamics. Crucially, we show that this framework extends beyond simple strategy frequencies to \emph{general observables}, enabling the precise calculation of long-term time averages for broad classes of economic metrics - including payoffs, social cost, and regret - despite chaos. Our results reveal that this simple learning algorithm captures the full spectrum of behaviors found in one-dimensional dynamical systems, from unique or multiple absolutely continuous invariant measures to complex periodic attractors as well as coexisting chaotic and stable (periodic) behaviors. By bridging game theory and dynamical systems, we show that statistical predictability is attainable even in the absence of pointwise convergence.
PRO-LONG: Programmatic Memory Enables Long-Horizon Reasoning
Long-horizon tasks require sustained perception, reasoning, and exploration, and are a persistent challenge for large language model (LLM) agents. This gap is reflected in their limited performance on continual learning benchmarks such as ARC-AGI-3, especially when models are evaluated out of the box. Various agent harnesses have been proposed to close this gap, and each commits to a strategy for handling long sequences of observations, i.e., what information to save from the environment and how to load it into model context, a choice we argue is particularly consequential. Existing methods for context management face a significant tradeoff, as preserving more information makes retrieving relevant details less tractable. We propose PRO-LONG, a minimal context management framework built around programmatic memory for LLM agents in long-horizon, exploratory settings. PRO-LONG addresses the tradeoff by keeping a complete, structured interaction log and capitalizing on recent progress in coding agents to search this history efficiently. On the full ARC-AGI-3 public game set, PRO-LONG improves over a base coding agent by an average of 18.0 percentage points across frontier models, and matches or exceeds state-of-the-art specialized harnesses (up to 76.1% pass@1) while using 4.2-5.8x fewer tokens. With Fable 5, PRO-LONG achieves 97.4% best@2 at a total cost of $1,750. Relevant code and logs are available at https://github.com/alexisfox7/PRO-LONG.
RPPNet: Perceptually-Grouped Rhythm-Pitch Primitives for Long-Term Structure Melody Generation via Boundary-Aware Modeling
Existing symbolic music generation models typically use bars as the basic structural unit. However, human perception of musical phrases often does not align with notated bar lines, leading to long-term structural fragmentation. This paper proposes RPPNet-a two-stage deep learning architecture with variable structural boundaries. It first generates variable-length Rhythm-Pitch Primitive (RPP) sequences, where each RPP encodes note count, rhythm, and contour; then decodes the RPP sequences into concrete notes. The grouping of RPPs is automatically derived from acoustic cues, auditory inertia, and similarity perception based on music psychology. Experiments show that melodies generated by RPPNet are superior in both long-term structure and musicality, with significant improvements across all subjective evaluation dimensions. Ablation studies confirm that the performance gain stems from the structural correctness of the psychological representation, rather than from model capacity. This work offers an interdisciplinary perspective for music generation, integrating music theory, computational modeling, and music psychology.
Audio-Visual Flamingo: Open Audio-Visual Intelligence for Long and Complex Videos
We present Audio-Visual Flamingo (AV-Flamingo), a fully open state-of-the-art audio-visual large language model (AV-LLM) for joint understanding and reasoning over audio, images, and long-form videos. Unlike prior AV-LLMs that primarily focus on short clips, AV-Flamingo is designed for understanding and reasoning over long and complex real-world (audio-visual) videos. To support this, we make three key contributions: (i) Audio-Visual-Skills, a large-scale collection of real-world videos with ~7M caption and question-answer training instances designed to emphasize temporal, compositional, and cross-modal audio-visual reasoning; (ii) a novel three-stage curriculum that progressively trains the model from short-range perception to long-horizon multi-event reasoning; and (iii) Temporal Audio-Visual Interleaved Chain-of-Thought, a reasoning framework that explicitly grounds intermediate reasoning steps to timestamps in long audio-visual streams, improving temporal alignment and interpretability. Extensive experiments across 15+ audio-visual, omni-modal, audio, and vision benchmarks show that AV-Flamingo outperforms similarly sized open models by clear margins and remains highly competitive with, and in some cases surpasses, much larger open-weight and closed models, particularly on long and complex real-world audio-visual understanding and reasoning tasks. Beyond benchmark performance, AV-Flamingo exhibits strong real-world utility and transfers well to unseen tasks, highlighting its robustness and generalization ability.
LongStraw: Long-Context RL Beyond 2M Tokens under a Fixed GPU Budget
A growing gap separates inference context lengths from RL post-training: inference systems are approaching million-token contexts, while post-training workloads often remain at 256K tokens or below and rely on length generalization at deployment. The gap is especially important for AI agents, whose observations, tool outputs, documents, and prior decisions accumulate over long trajectories. LongStraw is an architecture-aware execution stack for million-token RL post-training under a fixed GPU budget, instantiated with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). It evaluates the shared prompt without autograd, retains only model-specific state needed by later tokens, and replays short response branches one at a time, reducing the live training graph at the cost of additional replay time. We implement it for the hybrid recurrent and full-attention Qwen3.6-27B and the compressed-attention mixture-of-experts GLM-5.2. On eight H20 GPUs, LongStraw completes grouped Qwen scoring and response backward at 2.1M positions for groups of 2 and 8; increasing the group size adds only 0.21 GB of peak allocated memory, while a separate stress test reaches 4.46M positions. On 32 H20 GPUs, we validate the end-to-end LongStraw execution path for a 2.1M-token prompt across all 78 layers of GLM-5.2. These experiments establish execution capacity rather than complete training correctness because the captured prompt state is detached and some distributed forward and gradient composition paths remain incomplete.
Riesz-Kernel Stein Variational Gradient Descent: Renormalized Entropy and Long-Time Particle Limits
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) transports interacting particles toward a target distribution through deterministic kernelized dynamics. Singular Riesz kernels are attractive because they can provide quantitative population-level convergence, but at the finite-particle level the corresponding Stein energy has infinite self-interaction. We study periodic Riesz SVGD with self-interaction removed and prove a many-particle, long-time sampling theorem. Throughout the range in which the singular Stein energy is locally integrable, under a uniform bound on the initial relative entropy per particle, the time-averaged empirical-measure law converges weakly to the point mass at the target as the particle number and any diverging averaging horizon tend to infinity. We also show that the empirical-measure laws induced by invariant particle laws of finite relative entropy converge weakly to , without a uniform entropy bound. Below the logarithmic singularity threshold, we obtain an explicit algebraic finite-particle error bound. These results extend the joint-entropy approach for smooth-kernel SVGD to singular interactions.
WaspMOT: A Benchmark for Long-Term Multi-Object Tracking of Trichogramma Wasps
Multi-object tracking (MOT) has achieved strong performance on benchmarks dominated by short video sequences. However, such datasets do not adequately evaluate long-term identity preservation, where objects must be tracked consistently over extended durations. We introduce WaspMOT, a benchmark designed to address this gap through long-duration tracking of Trichogramma wasps in controlled ecological experiments. The dataset contains 10 sequences of approximately 12,000 frames each (over 8 minutes at 25 FPS), with dense MOTChallenge annotations and oracle detections to isolate association performance. Unlike existing benchmarks, WaspMOT forms a closed-set tracking scenario where all individuals remain present throughout the sequence, requiring consistent identity assignment across thousands of frames despite abrupt jumps, occlusions, and highly similar appearance. We establish a benchmark by evaluating five tracking-by-detection methods, including ByteTrack, BoT-SORT, C-BIoU, OC-SORT, and McByte, under a unified protocol. Results show that all methods suffer from significant trajectory fragmentation, highlighting the difficulty of long-term identity preservation even with perfect detections. A simple spatial tracklet stitching baseline consistently improves performance, indicating that substantial gains remain possible. WaspMOT provides a new benchmark for studying long-term association and reveals limitations of current tracking approaches that are not observable on conventional datasets. The benchmark will be made publicly available at the project repository: https://github.com/tstanczyk95/WaspMOT/ .
Jet-Long: Efficient Long-Context Extension with Dynamic Bifocal RoPE
Modern LLMs are increasingly deployed in long-context applications such as retrieval-augmented generation, repository-level coding, and agentic workflows whose accumulated reasoning and tool traces routinely push the input an order of magnitude past the pretraining window, making zero-shot context extension the dominant deployment path for open-weight checkpoints. The dominant zero-shot methods (YaRN, Self-Extend, DCA) fix a single rescaling factor up front, so an aggressive factor sacrifices short-context fidelity while a conservative one breaks down at long contexts; recent length-aware variants adapt the mapping, but with a fitted or distance-dependent schedule. We propose Jet-Long, a tuning-free zero-shot method that pairs a local RoPE-faithful window with a long-range window whose rescaling factor adapts dynamically to the current sequence length via a parameter-free analytic schedule, recovering the base model exactly at short inputs while extrapolating cleanly at long ones. An inclusion-exclusion attention merge and on-the-fly RoPE correction enable a fused CuTe implementation. On H100 at 64K-128K, prefill retains 83-88% of FlashAttention-3 throughput across the evaluated Qwen3 sizes and 88-93% of a matched CuTe control; Qwen3-8B single-batch generation reaches 1.04-1.08 times FlashAttention-3 throughput. On Qwen3-1.7B/4B/8B up to 128K context, Jet-Long leads RULER by +4.79/+2.18/+2.03 percentage points over the strongest baseline at 1.7B/4B/8B, achieves the best overall accuracy on HELMET-RAG (a benchmark identified by HELMET as the most efficient predictor of downstream long-context performance) and attains the lowest PG-19 perplexity. Additional evaluations cover Meta-Llama-3-8B, post-trained Qwen3 checkpoints, and the hybrid Jet-Nemotron architecture, supporting broader applicability without retraining. The local-window hyperparameter remains robust across the tested settings.
LongEgoRefer: A Benchmark for Long-Form Egocentric Video Referring Expression Comprehension
Egocentric videos capture rich and diverse human-object interactions and have emerged as a fundamental resource for understanding human activities related to objects. In this context, Video Referring Expression Comprehension (Video REC), the task of localizing the temporal and spatial extent of a referred object in video frames given a natural language query, plays a key role in linking textual descriptions to observed objects in untrimmed egocentric recordings. However, existing egocentric Video REC benchmarks primarily focus on short video clips, where some target object appears densely within frames. Such settings do not reflect real-world egocentric recordings, which are long-form, untrimmed, and characterized by sparse object occurrences and complex activity transitions. To address this limitation, we introduce LongEgoRefer, a novel and challenging benchmark constructed from long-form videos in the Ego4D dataset. LongEgoRefer contains 1,498 referring expressions with an average video duration of 45 minutes. The benchmark exhibits extreme target sparsity, detailed linguistic descriptions, and complex human-object interactions embedded in long, dynamic egocentric narratives. Consequently, it defines a demanding spatio-temporal grounding problem that requires models to identify both when an event occurs and where the referred object appears within extended video sequences. We evaluate existing Video REC approaches, including training-free baselines based on vision-language models combined with Grounded SAM2. Extensive experiments show that even advanced baselines and current state-of-the-art models struggle significantly on LongEgoRefer. These results highlight the intrinsic difficulty of long-form egocentric spatio-temporal grounding and emphasize the need for more robust video understanding models.
Deciphering Region-Level Signatures from Latency Measurements in LEO Satellite Internet
Low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite Internet has become an indispensable infrastructure that provide growing coverage for global users. Despite extensive measurement efforts, the principles underlying region-level performance characteristics remain insufficiently understood, limiting the ability to identify region-specific latency signatures under dynamic network conditions. In this paper, we formulate the problem of region-level latency characterization using Starlink round-trip time (RTT) measurements from the public LENS dataset. We then propose a hierarchical analytical framework that transforms raw RTT sequences into multi-scale statistical features for cross-region comparison. Using data from five geographically representative regions, we demonstrate that latency differences are strongly associated with deployment factors, particularly infrastructure availability and Starlink dish-to-Point-of-Presence distance. Mutual information analysis identifies minimum RTT as the most discriminative feature, which is further supported by XGBoost-based feature importance. The proposed model well achieves 83% accuracy on short-term data. However, its performance degrades over longer periods, indicating limited temporal generalization and motivating the need for adaptive models and feature representations for long-term performance in the future.
TA-SparseMG: Trend-Aware Sparse Forecasting via Multi-Scale Gating for Long-Term Time Series
Long-term time series forecasting finds extensive applications in domains such as power demand, traffic flow, meteorological observation, and renewable energy dispatch. Forecasting dynamically varying long-term time series poses inherent challenges, including statistical nonstationarity, local high-frequency disturbances, and coupled cross-period dependencies, which make it difficult for lightweight models to balance parameter efficiency and forecasting performance. To address this issue, this study presents TA-SparseMG, a lightweight cross-period forecasting model built on SparseTSF's sparse cross-period modeling framework. It incorporates three key modules: a trend-aware reversible instance normalization module, a scale-adaptive gated denoising module, and a multiscale gated-attention MLP forecasting module. The trend-aware normalization module captures input-window statistics and calibrates forecast-window distributions, effectively mitigating distribution shift. The scale-adaptive gated denoising module performs feature smoothing and residual suppression before period rearrangement, thereby reducing interference from high-frequency perturbations. The multiscale gated attention prediction module strengthens the prediction head's adaptive representational capacity via conditional gating and feature modulation. Extensive experiments across multiple LTSF benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed TA-SparseMG consistently achieves superior, stable performance. Ablation studies confirm that each module independently improves distribution adaptation, input robustness, and cross-period feature mapping capability.
AIGP: An LLM-Based Framework for Long-Term Value Alignment in E-Commerce Pricing
Traditional dynamic pricing models in large-scale e-commerce suffer from limited interpretability, poor utilization of unstructured information, and misalignment with long-term business objectives such as cumulative Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), Return on Investment (ROI) and milestone achievement. We propose AIGP, a novel framework that leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) prompted with domain knowledge, structured data and textual context to make interpretable, knowledge-aware pricing decisions. For efficient deployment while maintaining high-quality outputs, we employ supervised fine-tuning for knowledge distillation. Central to AIGP is the Long-Term Value Estimator (LTVE), trained via offline reinforcement learning on historical data, which serves as a reward model to score candidate pricing actions and select preference pairs for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), thereby aligning the pricing policy with long-term business objectives. Extensive offline evaluations and large-scale online A/B tests on Tao Factory demonstrate that AIGP achieves significant improvements: +13.21% in GMV, +7.59% in ROI, and +8.20% in milestone achievement rate over 14 days compared to the production baseline, while simultaneously providing interpretable and transparent pricing rationales.
Long-Term Simulation Exposes Cognitive-Developmental Risks in AI Companions
AI companions powered by large language models increasingly interact with cognition-developing users, including children and adolescents, creating risks that may accumulate over time. Existing safety evaluations largely rely on single-turn or short-session tests, which cannot capture risks that emerge only through prolonged interaction. To address this gap, we propose TSJ (Theater-Stage-Judge), a longitudinal framework combining persona-driven user simulation, dynamic psychological-state updating and retrospective evaluation. We evaluate six mainstream models across four developmental stages, twenty-four risk dimensions and three psychological-vulnerability personas, covering 12,960 simulated person-day interactions. TSJ shows that short-horizon testing systematically underestimates developmental risks, for which TSJ yields a stable risk estimate only after 140 turns within prolonged simulated relationships. Applying TSJ further identifies early childhood and emerging adulthood as the most vulnerable stages, with cognitive trust and emotional dependency as the weakest domains. TSJ provides a scalable methodology for longitudinal cognitive developmental risk evaluation in AI companion systems.
Distribution-Aware Diffusion-LLM for Robust Ultra-Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Time series forecasting is a fundamental machine learning task. Recent work has explored Large Language Models (LLMs) for this purpose due to their strong generalization, pattern recognition, and zero-shot or few-shot capabilities. Despite their suitability for long-context learning, LLMs face challenges in multimodal settings: they lack calibrated probabilistic modeling for non-text data and struggle to align heterogeneous representations. To address these issues, we propose a new framework Diffusion-LLM that integrates a conditional diffusion model into an LLM-based forecasting pipeline. This joint design enables learning the conditional distribution of future data while improving semantic alignment in a shared latent space. We evaluate Diffusion-LLM on six long-term forecasting benchmarks, including ETT, Weather, and ECL. Our method consistently outperforms existing LLM-based baseline, achieving notable gains in ultra-long-term and few-shot forecasting and demonstrating the value of distribution-aware regularization for enhancing robustness and generalization in time series LLMs.
RaMem: Contextual Reinstatement for Long-term Agentic Memory
Long-term memory has become increasingly important for LLM agents that operate across extended interactions and evolving task contexts. Recent memory systems have made past experiences more persistent, compact, and retrievable, but retrieval alone does not ensure that a memory provides valid evidence for the current query. When experiences are compressed into reusable fragments, memories from different situations may appear equally relevant if they involve recurring entities or user states. We refer to this failure as context collapse: memories lose the surrounding context needed to judge whether they provide valid evidence for the current query. To address this problem, we propose Contextual Reinstatement for Agentic Memory (RaMem), a framework that turns retrieved memory fragments into contextually verifiable evidence. RaMem operates through four coordinated stages: (i) evidence anchoring grounds each memory in its original episodic conditions, especially event time, mention time, session span, and participants; (ii) recall condition induction derives the evidence conditions implied by the query; (iii) validity-aware retrieval uses these conditions to prioritize context-compatible memories while retaining content-relevant candidates as fallback evidence; and (iv) context-preserved synthesis keeps the selected memories' structured context available to the generator. Experiments on long-term memory benchmarks show that RaMem consistently improves performance over strong memory baselines, with average F1 gains of more than 10% across several backbones.
CoVStream: Edge-Cloud Collaboration for Understanding of Long Video Streams
Long, continuous video streams are an increasingly critical driver of multimedia intelligence. Existing efforts often handle long videos with a sample-encode-reason approach using large models. However, they overlook a crucial deployment fact: the stream is often produced by computationally constrained devices. This forces an untenable compromise: cloud offloading unlocks strong reasoning but incurs prohibitive bandwidth overhead, while on-device processing remains limited by edge hardware capacity. Therefore, we propose CoVStream, the first edge-cloud collaborative framework for understanding long video streams. The edge node distills raw video streams into compact visual features and semantic captions for transmission to the cloud, minimizing bandwidth costs, while the cloud server integrates this data into an entity graph and global visual context, activating the heavy reasoning model only when a user query arrives. Experiments on VideoMME-Long, LVBench, and RTV-Bench show that CoVStream reduces bandwidth usage by 87.6% while retaining 99.2% of the cloud baseline accuracy on LVBench.
AtomMem: Building Simple and Effective Memory System for LLM Agents via Atomic Facts
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning and generation abilities, but their fixed context windows limit long-term information accumulation and reuse across multi-session interactions. Existing memory-augmented systems often construct memory in a coarse and unstable manner, relying on inefficient memory representations or unstable unconstrained updates. To address these challenges, we propose AtomMem, a long-term memory system designed for value-dense storage and stable memory evolution. AtomMem introduces a Fact Executor, which selectively extracts high value atomic facts from long form interactions to serve as highly efficient memory representations. Subsequently, AtomMem organizes these facts into hierarchical event structures and temporal profiles, capturing coherent episodic contexts and tracking dynamically evolving user attributes over time. During retrieval, the system activates an associative memory graph to connect fragmented memories. Experiments on the LoCoMo benchmark confirm that AtomMem achieves state-of-the-art performance across various reasoning tasks, offering a scalable and economically viable solution for deploying intelligent personalized agents.
Correct Yourself, Keep My Trust: How Self-Correction and Social Connection Shape Credibility in Social Chatbots
When social chatbots make mistakes, and they do, how they recover determines whether users trust them again. Social chatbots are increasingly integrated into everyday life, yet they remain prone to generating convincing but inaccurate information. The social connection they build with users makes such errors particularly consequential. We conducted a between-subjects experiment (N=120) comparing three error correction strategies: a webpage retraction, self-correction by the same social chatbot, and correction by an expert chatbot. Our results reveal two key findings. First, all three strategies corrected the error equally well, but only self-correction did so without damaging the chatbot's credibility: participants rated self-correcting chatbots significantly higher in both trustworthiness and perceived expertise than chatbots whose errors were corrected by external sources. Second, the strength of the user's social connection with the chatbot, measured through social attraction and self-disclosure, significantly predicted the magnitude of belief change, but only when the chatbot corrected itself. Outsourcing corrections to an external source severed this link entirely. These findings suggest that social chatbots should correct their own mistakes rather than outsource corrections, and that investing in social connection is a functional mechanism that amplifies correction effectiveness, not merely a design feature. We discuss implications for designing chatbots that maintain long-term credibility while effectively addressing their own errors.
Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics
Although pitch sequencing is a central topic in baseball analytics, previous studies have primarily focused on optimizing the final pitch within a single plate appearance, leaving the role of preceding setup pitches and their impact on long-term season-level performance insufficiently examined. To address these issues, this study conducted counterfactual analyses using MLB Statcast data. A Transformer-based machine-learning model was trained to predict whether a target pitch would result in an in-play outcome or swing-out. Counterfactual pitch sequences were then generated by replacing either the final pitch or the preceding setup pitch with alternative pitch types and locations while keeping the surrounding contextual information fixed. Optimal counterfactual selections were defined as those that minimized the predicted in-play probability, and their expected effects on pitchers' seasonal statistics were estimated using regression models linking model outputs to season statistics. The results suggest that the optimization of both final and setup pitches may substantially influence season-level performance, including improvements of more than 1.0 in K/9. The analyses also provided several practical insights, including velocity-band-specific effective locations, the importance of pitch commands, and the expansion of pitch-selection options through middle-velocity pitches. These findings quantitatively support the strategic importance of pitch sequencing in baseball.
PermaVid: Consistent Video Generation Across Edits via Disentangled Context Memory
Consistent video generation under editing operations requires persistence: when edits modify scene appearance or layout, subsequent generations should remain coherent across time and viewpoints. However, existing memory designs struggle to maintain long-term consistency after such modifications, as stored contexts may become outdated or invalid. To address this, we propose PermaVid, a novel framework built upon a multi-modal context memory that disentangles spatial context into semantic appearance and geometric structure, together with an edit-aware memory update and retrieval strategy that keeps memory evolution aligned with subsequent observations. Specifically, we develop two complementary memory banks: an RGB context memory that captures appearance-aware observations while implicitly encoding geometry, and a depth context memory that preserves geometry-only structure disentangled from semantics. Building on this design, we introduce a memory-guided video generation model that performs multi-modal feature fusion under reference conditions drawn from mixed-modality memory contexts. Experiments demonstrate that our method maintains strong long-term semantic and structural consistency after edits, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
G-Long: Graph-Enhanced Memory Management for Efficient Long-Term Dialogue Agents
While Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced open-domain dialogue systems, maintaining long-term consistency remains a challenge due to inherent limitations in long-context reasoning and the inefficiency of processing extensive raw text. Existing approaches typically rely on either unstructured memory storage, which is prone to information loss, or computationally expensive LLMs that incur high latency. To address these limitations, we propose G-Long, a graph-enhanced framework that utilizes a fine-tuned small Language Model (sLM) for structured triplet extraction and associative retrieval, significantly reducing operational costs. Furthermore, we introduce the novel attention-aware importance scoring mechanism that leverages the intrinsic cross-attention signals of a T5 summarizer to identify salient memories. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that G-Long achieves state-of-the-art performance in both response generation and memory retrieval, yielding performance gains of up to 9.8% in response quality on MSC and 40.8% in retrieval recall on LME, while significantly minimizing computational overhead.
HAMNO: A Hierarchical Adaptive Multi-scale Neural Operator with Physics-Informed Learning for Dynamical Systems
Neural operators provide a powerful framework for learning solution mappings of partial differential equations directly in function space. However, many existing architectures still struggle to represent nonlinear time-dependent systems that involve multi-scale structures, long-range interactions, and stable long-time evolution. In this work, we introduce the Hierarchical Adaptive Multi-scale Neural Operator (HAMNO), a neural-operator architecture that combines local convolutional representations, global spectral operators, and hierarchical encoder-decoder processing. The central component of HAMNO is a data-dependent gating mechanism that adaptively balances local and global information at each spatial location, allowing the model to resolve fine-scale features while preserving long-range dependencies. We further develop a physics-informed extension, PI-HAMNO, based on a multi-objective loss strategy that combines data fitting with strong- and weak-form physics constraints. The strong-form term penalizes the domain-integrated squared PDE residual in physical coordinates, while the weak-form term is constructed by multiplying the governing residual by finite-element test functions and evaluating the resulting element integrals using centroid-based tetrahedral quadrature. The framework is evaluated on non-periodic Allen-Cahn (AC), Cahn-Hilliard (CH), and Swift-Hohenberg (SH) equations defined on cubic domains. Across long-horizon rollout, data-limited training, out-of-distribution initial-condition shifts, and random-seed variations, HAMNO improves predictive accuracy over standard neural-operator baselines, while PI-HAMNO further enhances stability, physical consistency, and data efficiency. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/MBamdad/HAMNO .
Long-Term and Short-Term Transistor Aging in Deep Neural Networks: Impact and Mitigation
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are used in a variety of real-world applications including, for example, image classification and speech recognition. The inference accuracy of DNN implemented on hardware in integrated circuits (ICs) degrades under phenomena such as transistor aging. Aging slows down the switching speed of transistors, resulting in system-level timing violations due to unsustainable clocks. To maintain reliability for the entire projected lifetime, designers add guardbands to prevent timing violations; however, adding large timing guardbands causes losses in performance (speed or throughput). This chapter provides a detailed discussion of the effects of long-term and short-term transistor aging on DNN inference accuracy. Furthermore, to mitigate aging effects on DNN's accuracy and keep them at bay, a methodology for aging-aware retraining is presented in order to generate a resilient DNN even when aggressive (i.e., smaller than required) guardbands are used. This improves the inference accuracy of the DNNs even in the presence of aging-induced degradation. These effects are discussed in this chapter along with mitigation strategies on a hardware implementation of a DNN for image classification on an off-the-shelf image dataset. The application of short-term aging as an excitation mechanism for the detection of hardware Trojans in integrated circuits is also briefly discussed.
Reinforcement Learning with Pairwise Preferences in Long-Term Decision Problems
Reinforcement learning problems typically define the goal as maximizing the expected value of a scalar reward function. But, pairwise preferences are often easier to specify than scalar rewards, and they express certain goals that scalar rewards cannot. Methods for reinforcement learning with pairwise preferences have thus received growing interest. Unfortunately, these methods are inefficient in problems with long time horizons, and they lack guarantees on the performance of Markov policies relative to history-dependent policies, which bridge the theory and practice of reinforcement learning. We therefore propose the \textit{Markov decision contest} as a new problem model for reinforcement learning with pairwise preferences. We prove that stationary Markov policies are optimal among all history-dependent policies, that solving a Markov decision contest exactly is in P, and that a simple iterative algorithm converges to an optimal policy at a sublinear rate. Lastly, in a set of high-dimensional decision problems with long time horizons, we show that our approximate algorithm is significantly more learning-efficient than prior work.
Eywa: Provenance-Grounded Long-Term Memory for AI Agents
AI agents that persist across sessions need memory they can retrieve, audit, update, and erase. Existing memory systems often collapse source evidence, extracted facts, retrieved context, and answer policy into one opaque prompt path, making failures difficult to diagnose: a wrong answer may come from missing evidence, unsupported extraction, stale state, retrieval loss, or answer-model behavior. We present Eywa, a provenance-grounded memory architecture built around evidence before belief. Eywa stores immutable source evidence before deriving canonical facts, validates extracted memories against typed signals and source support, and retrieves bounded memory context through a deterministic multi-route read path with zero LLM calls inside retrieval. Retrieved context is returned separately from answer instructions, allowing the same memory substrate to be evaluated across frontier, budget, and local answer models. Under a frozen, artifact-recorded retrieval configuration, Eywa reaches 90.19% judge accuracy on the LoCoMo C1-C4 split with Claude Sonnet 4.6 write and QA roles. On LongMemEval-S, it reaches 88.2% retrieval-sufficiency accuracy. On BEAM, a 700-question technical-memory stress benchmark, it reaches 81.45% mean nugget score and 85.29% pass@score >= 0.5. Full per-question artifacts, including questions, gold answers, model answers, retrieved context, and labels, are published at https://eywa.to/research.
Regime-Adaptive Continual Learning for Portfolio Management
Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, exhibiting frequent regime shifts and structural changes that render traditional Portfolio Management (PM) approaches ineffective. Existing remedies, such as rolling-window retraining and naive online fine-tuning, are hindered by high computational costs and insufficient knowledge utilization, respectively, resulting in low returns and limited adaptability. Continual learning (CL) offers a promising paradigm by enabling trading agents to accumulate and transfer knowledge across sequential tasks. In this paper, we propose \textbf{Re}gime-aware \textbf{C}ontinual \textbf{A}daptive \textbf{P}ortfolio management (\textbf{ReCAP}), a novel framework that integrates CL into PM to address the challenges of dynamic financial environments. ReCAP employs an adaptive regime detection module to segment historical market data into variable-length regimes, enabling regime-specific learning of policy vectors and the construction of a policy library. During continual trading, a regime-gate module adaptively combines policy vectors from the library based on the current market state, facilitating rapid adaptation to newly detected regimes. Only the regime-gate and the current regime's policy vector are continually updated to preserve useful knowledge effectively. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that ReCAP consistently outperforms popular baselines, achieving superior returns in long-term investment horizons and rapid adaptation to regime shifts.
IPO-Mine: A Toolkit and Dataset for Section-Structured Analysis of Long, Multimodal IPO Documents
An Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing is a document released when a private firm goes public, allowing individual (retail) investors to purchase its shares. These filings describe a firm's business, financials, and risks and are long, multimodal documents with narrative text and images. Despite their importance to financial markets, there is no large-scale, standardized dataset or benchmark for studying IPO filings with modern language and multimodal models. These documents pose significant challenges: filings frequently exceed 500,000 tokens and lack consistent structural organization. We introduce the IPO-Toolkit, an open-source framework for downloading and parsing IPO filings into standardized section-structured text and extracted images. The toolkit segments filings, extracts embedded images, and produces structured outputs that enable large-scale, reproducible analysis workflows over long, multimodal documents. Using this infrastructure, we construct the IPO-Dataset, a large, section-structured, multimodal dataset covering more than 109,000 IPO filings and amendments from 1994 to 2026 and containing over 76,000 images. We establish structured evaluation tasks over extracted financial charts, including chart quality and misleadingness assessment. Our experiments show that state-of-the-art multimodal models often diverge from expert human judgments on these tasks, exposing alignment challenges in multimodal reasoning over long, real-world regulatory documents. Beyond benchmarking, the IPO-Dataset enables large-scale analysis of section-level textual variation and cross-industry differences in visual and textual disclosure practices. Our code, dataset, and website are publicly available under CC-BY-4.0.
MemGuard: Preventing Memory Contamination in Long-Term Memory-Augmented Large Language Models
Memory-augmented large language models extend reasoning beyond a fixed context window by maintaining long-term memory across interactions. However, existing memory systems often collapse stable user facts, episodic events, and behavioral rules into a shared space, allowing functionally distinct memories to be retrieved and used as interchangeable evidence. We identify this failure mode as heterogeneous memory contamination, where context-specific events become overgeneralized claims, or semantically relevant but functionally incompatible memories mislead generation. To this end, we introduce MemGuard, a type-aware memory framework that preserves functional memory boundaries during memory construction and retrieval. It assigns each memory an explicit functional role at write time, maintains relations across type-isolated memories, and selectively composes evidence only from necessary memory types, reducing contamination from irrelevant or functionally incompatible evidence. Across hallucination and long-horizon conversation benchmarks, MemGuard improves memory reliability by up to 28.27% while retrieving up to 5.8x fewer memory tokens than prior methods. These results suggest that reliable long-term reasoning depends on principled organization and selective use of heterogeneous memory.
Long Live the Librarian! A Persistent Search Sub-Agent for Energy-Efficient Multi-Agent Software Engineering Systems
Multi-agent systems (MAS) have substantially advanced autonomous software engineering (SWE), but their growing inference energy demands raise sustainability concerns. In this paper, we demonstrate that this cost is concentrated in an overlooked source: redundant output tokens generated across agents. Two empirical findings ground this claim. First, our per-token energy attribution for MAS reveals a sharp asymmetry: an output token consumes 30 to 1,000 times more energy than an input or cached token. Second, MAS inflate per-episode output because agents repeatedly re-explore overlapping repository regions. To address this inefficiency, we propose Librarian, a persistent search sub-agent that tracks repository-search history and suppresses redundant exploration actions across agents. By returning short references to file regions instead of full file excerpts, Librarian further reduces output-token volume. On SWE-Bench Verified and SWE-Bench-Live, Librarian reduces per-episode GPU energy consumption of existing multi-agent SWE systems by 11 to 30% while preserving task performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/ml-postech/Librarian.
Is Agent Memory a Database? Rethinking Data Foundations for Long-Term AI Agent Memory
Long-running AI agents need persistent memory. Memory supports learning across sessions, reduces repeated context injection, and enables auditing of past decisions. Current agent memory systems and database paradigms treat memory as storage. They localize correctness at records, embeddings, or edges. Each supplies only some of the capabilities that long-term memory requires. The result is four recurring failure modes: unregulated growth, missing semantic revision, capacity-driven forgetting, and read-only retrieval. In our vision, long-term agent memory is a new data-management workload. Its correctness is a property of the state trajectory, not of individual records. We formalize this as Governed Evolving Memory (GEM). GEM replaces record-level database operations with four state-level operators: ingestion, revision, forgetting, and retrieval. Six correctness conditions govern how the state evolves. Three structural observations establish that no record-level system can satisfy these conditions, regardless of the storage model. We realize the abstraction in MemState, a prototype on a property-graph backend. MemState validates feasibility and exposes the gap to a native engine. We outline three research directions that define memory-centric data management as a workload.
FlowLong: Inference-time Long Video Generation via Manifold-constrained Tweedie Matching
Extending the generation horizon of video diffusion models to long sequences remains a long-standing and important challenge. Existing training-free approaches fall into two categories: extensions of bidirectional models, which are tightly coupled to specific architectures and suffer from quality degradation over long horizons, and autoregressive models, which accumulate drift errors due to exposure bias and tend to produce repetitive motion patterns. To address these issues, we propose a novel but simple inference-time approach for long video generation that is architecture-agnostic and requires no additional training. Our method generates long videos via overlapping sliding windows, where predicted clean samples from adjacent windows are blended via \emph{Tweedie matching} to enforce both \textbf{manifold constraint and temporal consistency} across overlap regions. \emph{Stochastic early-phase sampling} then synchronizes per-window trajectories by injecting fresh noise after each Tweedie matching correction in the high-noise phase, before transitioning to deterministic ODE sampling to preserve fine-grained visual fidelity. Applied to various video generation models, our method generates videos several times longer than the native window length while outperforming both training-free and autoregressive baselines in temporal consistency and visual quality, and further extends to audio-video joint generation and text-to-3DGS without any fine-tuning.
Towards Sustainable Growth: A Multi-Value-Aware Retrieval Framework for E-Commerce Search
New item growth is critical for maintaining a healthy ecosystem in large-scale e-commerce platforms. However, existing systems tend to prioritize presenting users with already popular items, a phenomenon often referred to as the "Matthew effect". In the context of search retrieval, current cold-start models suffer from the misalignment between training objectives and online business metrics, and they lack effective mechanisms to measure an item's growth potential. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Value-Aware retrieval framework tailored for e-commerce search, designed to better align with the cascaded online values across different stages of the search system while balancing immediate conversion and long-term item growth. Our framework GrowthGR consists of two key components: an Item Long-term Transaction Value Prediction (ItemLTV) module and a Multi-Value-Aware Generative Retrieval (MultiGR) module. First, in the ItemLTV module, we employ counterfactual inference to quantify the long-term value increment attributable to a single user interaction. Second, in the MultiGR module, building upon a semantic-ID-based generative retrieval architecture, we leverage structured samples with the search cascade signals and adopt a Multi-Value-Aware Policy Optimization (MoPO) training paradigm to align with multi-stage online values, while explicitly balancing short-term transactional value and long-term growth potential estimated by ItemLTV. We successfully deployed GrowthGR on Taobao's production platform, achieving a substantial 5.3% lift in new item GMV while delivering a non-trivial 0.3% gain in overall search GMV. Extensive online analysis and A/B testing demonstrate its positive impact on the overall ecosystem value.