Next Activity Prediction

Adaptive systems often need to make task-specific decisions about people from limited evidence: a tutor may need to anticipate how a learner will approach a new problem, a game may need to adapt when a player enters a new level, and a human-AI system may need to infer whether a partner will persist with a plan or switch goals. These decisions depend on person-level tendencies that shape how people solve related tasks, but such tendencies are difficult to infer from standard behavioral evidence. One approach is to use aggregate outcome summaries, such as scores, completion rates, or productivity; these summaries are compact and available across tasks, but can collapse distinct behavioral processes into similar outcomes. Another approach is to use process-level traces, which record how behavior unfolds; however, process modeling within one task can entangle stable person-level tendencies with task-specific layout and affordances. In this work, we study early cross-task behavioral inference: whether partial source-task process traces can reveal transferable person-level structure that predicts strategy in a held-out target task. We introduce a Process-Level Latent Variable Model (PLVM), which encodes task-specific traces and fuses them into a shared person-level latent representation for cross-task prediction. In PowerWash Simulator, a naturalistic telemetry dataset of human gameplay, PLVM uses partial traces from two cleaning tasks to predict locally persistent Zone Planner behavior versus frequent Zone Hopper behavior in the held-out Fire Station level. Controlled simulations with known latent types show that cross-task fusion helps when source tasks reveal complementary dimensions of a shared latent process. These results suggest that process-level cross-task modeling can support early prediction of target-task strategy when observing sufficient target-task behavior is impractical.

Recent work has begun to equip vision-language-action (VLA) policies with explicit intermediate reasoning. In embodied control, however, textual chain-of-thought is a poor fit: irrelevant or weakly textual information can interfere with action prediction, while autoregressive text decoding adds too much latency for real-time closed-loop execution. We present VISUALTHINK-VLA, a visual intermediate-reasoning framework for accurate, low-latency VLA policies. Our bootstrapping philosophy is to guide action with effective visual thinking: VISUALTHINK-VLA bootstraps action prediction through a compact visual-evidence interface that preserves spatial precision while avoiding decoding overhead. Besides, to further improve performance and efficiency, VISUALTHINK-VLA adopts a tailored selective routing mechanism to learn the visual evidence tokens, enabling low-latency inference while preserving high-capacity specialization. We also introduce VisualEvidence-Kit, a supervision-and-audit resource centered on a VisualEvidence-Agent that constructs a 754.7k VLA instructions VisualEvidence-Set for route supervision and counterfactual faithfulness tests. Across multiple benchmarks and real-robot evaluation, VISUALTHINK-VLA achieves the highest success rate on most benchmarks while reducing the multi-second latency of reasoning-augmented baselines to the sub-second regime. For example, on BridgeData V2, it reduces step latency from 8.377,s with ECoT to 0.367,s, achieving a 22.8 times speedup.

We benchmark three supervised fine-tuned models against frontier zero-shot baselines on a 661-row held-out slice of PiSAR (Persona, intent, Screen, Action, Rationale), a 12,929-tuple corpus of screen-anchored behavioural rationales curated from public app-store reviews, Pew American Trends Panel demographics, and the OPeRA shopper traces. Every model, frontier or fine-tuned, is evaluated on the same 661-row slice with the same scoring pipeline. Two findings. First, frontier zero-shot baselines (Claude Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5) reach sem_sim 0.459 and 0.482 respectively; a fine-tuned Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct reaches 0.783 and clears sem_sim >= 0.7 on 79% of rows, against 1-2% for either frontier baseline, a gap of 0.30 absolute on the same test set. Second, the same training data and recipe on Gemma-4-26B-A4B-IT scores only 0.441, in the same band as the frontier zero-shot baselines rather than the fine-tuned Qwen. We read this as a recipe-vs-model mismatch: the reasoning-tuned high-parameter model resists displacement and would likely need either more data or a stronger fine-tuning method.

Planning with world models is bottlenecked by compounding prediction errors and the difficulty of defining optimizable goals. Visual targets provide precise local gradients but poor distant guidance, while language is flexible yet limited by noisy cross-modal alignment or dependence on large generative models unsuited for the high-sampling nature of model-based planning. To address these challenges, we introduce Latent Goal Prediction from Language (LAGO), a framework that predicts both sequences of intermediate goal states from language instructions and action-conditioned rollouts, all within the same latent space. Rather than optimizing toward a single global objective, LAGO dynamically decomposes instructions into explicitly predicted, locally tractable latent subgoals. By updating these subgoals online and using a soft minimum trajectory cost during planning, LAGO enables an agent to follow coherent latent trajectories over long horizons. Evaluation across multiple environments planning horizons shows that LAGO avoids the sharp degradation of prior methods. By achieving robust and precise long-horizon planning purely from language, LAGO bridges the precision of visual goals with the flexibility of text-guided control.

Proactive task-oriented agents must autonomously anticipate user needs, identify actionable opportunities, and trigger software actions at appropriate moments - fundamentally shifting from reactive systems that await explicit instructions. However, existing approaches lack generalizable end-to-end solutions for measuring and optimizing such anticipatory behaviors. This paper introduces ProActor, a unified framework for conversational task scheduling that integrates: (1) a domain-agnostic automated annotation methodology that enables scalable proactiveness reinforcement learning (RL) by generating full opportunity time windows instead of rigid point labels, (2) systematic proactiveness metrics capturing both timing quality and reference action alignment, and (3) RL optimization using GRPO with various reward designs. Our insight is that RULER-based rewards with proactiveness rubrics are crucial for improving timing quality, and that proactiveness optimization enabled by stage-aware composite rewards is key to balancing timing quality and reference action alignment. Timing-aware RL requires extensive exploration, demanding efficient infrastructure. We develop ART-F, an adaptive framework combining request-adaptive inference clusters with DDP-based training on single-node multi-GPU systems, enabling LoRA training of 4-bit Qwen2.5-14B-ProActor-Q4 with 4-8x speedups. Experiments on two newly auto-annotated datasets demonstrate significant improvements in proactive timing while maintaining action consistency comparable to state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines. Ablations validate the effectiveness of distinct composite reward variations.

Although large language model (LLM) conversational systems process millions of multi-turn dialogues daily, they remain fundamentally reactive: they respond only after the user types a query. A key step toward proactive interaction is next-query prediction, which anticipates the user's subsequent query based solely on the preceding dialogue. Progress on this task is hindered by the lack of dedicated benchmarks and a fundamental efficiency--quality trade-off: naively concatenating full dialogue history incurs linearly growing token consumption, while truncating to the latest turn discards crucial cross-turn context. Our key insight is that accurate prediction does not require re-reading raw history; it suffices to track the user's evolving intent trajectory across topics, unresolved needs, and interest shifts. We propose OnePred, which maintains a recursively updated memory as its sole cross-turn context, bounding the per-turn cost independently of conversation length. We train the model via a two-stage reinforcement learning pipeline that first teaches what to predict, then what to compress, shaping the memory into a prediction-oriented intent chain. To establish a rigorous testbed, we introduce NQP-Bench, spanning three diverse subsets. Experiments demonstrate that OnePred reduces per-turn token consumption by up to 22$\times$ compared to full-history inputs while consistently exceeding all baselines in prediction quality, with larger gains on longer conversations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZBWpro/OnePred.

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) requires an agent to ground language instructions to its own movement within a visual environment. While state-of-the-art methods leverage the reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for end-to-end action prediction, they often lack an explicit and explainable understanding of the relationships between the agent, the instruction, and the scene. Conversely, explicitly building a scene map for heuristic planning is intuitively appealing but relies on additional 3D sensors and hinders large-scale vision-language pre-training. To bridge this gap, we propose AwareVLN, a novel framework that equips the navigation model with a self-aware reasoning mechanism, enabling it to understand the agent's state and task progress in a fully end-to-end and data-driven manner. Our approach features two key innovations: (1) a structural reasoning module that fosters spatial and task-oriented self-awareness, and (2) an automatic data engine with progress division for effective training. Extensive experiments on various datasets in Habitat simulator show our AwareVLN significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art vision-language navigation methods. Project page: https://gwxuan.github.io/AwareVLN/.

We propose JFAA, a JEPA-based Future Action Anticipation method for the EPIC-KITCHENS-100 (EK-100) Action Anticipation task. Inspired by the representation learning and future prediction ability of V-JEPA 2.1, JFAA uses a frozen encoder and predictor to extract observed context features and near-future latent tokens. A lightweight attentive probe is then trained to predict verb, noun, and action logits with separate task queries. To improve robustness, we further build a field-aware ensemble over selected epoch-level predictions, allowing each output field to benefit from its most reliable candidates. Experimental results on the official challenge server show that JFAA achieves first place in the EgoVis 2026 EK-100 Action Anticipation Challenge. Our code will be released at https://github.com/CorrineQiu/JFAA.

Understanding adaptive biomechanical systems requires distinguishing observable performance, static multivariate representation, longitudinal displacement, and internal approximation of observed change. This study introduces Level 5, which examines whether the M1-M2 transformation observed in a single-subject gait dataset can be approximated within a selected PCA representation. Gait was recorded with instrumented insoles in a participant with Parkinson's disease under six occlusal observational probes during two sessions eleven weeks apart. A simplified feed-forward neural network was trained to approximate M2 PC1-PC2 coordinates from M1 coordinates, occlusal-probe descriptors, and the longitudinal-transition indicator. In the core analysis aligned with Level 4, the model preserved the Euclidean centroid-displacement hierarchy dOC3 < dONL < dOC2.5. In the extended six-probe analysis, it preserved the broad structure of the exploratory ordering. Held-out M2 and leave-condition-out analyses provided internal tests beyond the full-dataset fit, while a within-session analysis described probe positions relative to ONL. The term predictive is used only in a restricted methodological sense. The model does not provide prospective clinical prediction, patient-level forecasting, or generalization to unseen individuals. Occlusal conditions are treated as observational probes applied during measurement, not as continuous causal drivers of longitudinal evolution. The findings are exploratory, retrospective, representation dependent, and non causal. They do not establish causal occlusal effects, validated viability thresholds, therapeutic superiority, distinct physiological states, or generalizable predictive validity.

Existing benchmarks for multimodal memory reasoning largely evaluate systems within pre-assembled contexts, but under-evaluate whether agents can use evidence distributed across independently originated sources. We argue that source-distributed memory composition is an important and under-examined bottleneck in multimodal agent memory, especially when relevant evidence is fragmented across heterogeneous artifacts such as conversations, profiles, screenshots, tables, images, and documents. To address this gap, we introduce Source-distributed Multimodal Memory Benchmark(SMMBench), which measures whether agents can retrieve, align, and compose multimodal evidence scattered across multiple sources rather than reason within a single curated context. SMMBench evaluates four core capabilities: (1) cross-source multimodal reasoning; (2) conflict resolution; (3) preference reasoning; (4) memory-grounded action prediction. The benchmark contains 1877 samples grounded in 264 sources. Experiments on representative memory-style and retrieval-based baselines show that current systems still struggle on these capabilities, positioning source-distributed multimodal memory as an important and still under-evaluated challenge for multimodal agents. Our data are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/HuacanChai/SMMBench.

Conversational scams, such as romance and investment scams, are emerging as a major form of online fraud. Unlike one-shot scam lures such as fake lottery or unpaid toll messages, they unfold through multi-turn conversations in which scammers gradually manipulate victims using evolving psychological techniques. However, existing research mainly focuses on static scam detection or synthetic scams, leaving open whether language models can understand how real-world scams progress over time. We introduce PreScam, a benchmark for modeling scam progression from early conversations. Built from user-submitted scam reports, PreScam filters and structures 177,989 raw reports into 11,573 conversational scam instances spanning 20 scam categories. Each instance is hierarchically structured according to the scam lifecycle defined by the proposed scam kill chain, and further annotated at the turn level with scammer psychological actions and victim responses. We benchmark models on two tasks: real-time termination prediction, which estimates whether a conversation is approaching the termination stage, and scammer action prediction, which forecasts the scammer's subsequent actions. Results show a clear gap between surface-level fluency and progression modeling: supervised encoders substantially outperform zero-shot LLMs on real-time termination prediction, while next-action prediction remains only moderately successful even for strong LLMs. Taken together, these results show that current models can capture some scam-related cues, yet still struggle to track how risk escalates and how manipulation unfolds across turns.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have achieved strong semantic generalization for embodied policy learning, yet they learn reactive observation-to-action mappings without explicitly modeling how the physical world evolves under intervention. A growing body of work addresses this limitation by integrating world models, predictive models of environment dynamics, into the action generation pipeline. We term this emerging paradigm World Action Models (WAMs): embodied foundation models that unify predictive state modeling with action generation, targeting a joint distribution over future states and actions rather than actions alone. However, the literature remains fragmented across architectures, learning objectives, and application scenarios, lacking a unified conceptual framework. We formally define WAMs and disambiguate them from related concepts, and trace the foundations and early integration of VLA and world model research that gave rise to this paradigm. We organize existing methods into a structured taxonomy of Cascaded and Joint WAMs, with further subdivision by generation modality, conditioning mechanism, and action decoding strategy. We systematically analyze the data ecosystem fueling WAMs development, spanning robot teleoperation, portable human demonstrations, simulation, and internet-scale egocentric video, and synthesize emerging evaluation protocols organized around visual fidelity, physical commonsense, and action plausibility. Overall, this survey provides the first systematic account of the WAMs landscape, clarifies key architectural paradigms and their trade-offs, and identifies open challenges and future opportunities for this rapidly evolving field.

Generative point-of-interest (POI) recommendation models based on large language models (LLMs) have shown promising results by formulating next POI prediction as a sequence generation task. However, the knowledge encoded in these models remains fixed after training, making them unable to perceive evolving real-world conditions that shape user mobility decisions, such as local events and cultural trends. To bridge this gap, we propose AWARE (Agent-based World knowledge Augmented REcommendation), which employs an LLM agent to generate location- and time-aware contextual narratives that capture regional cultural characteristics, seasonal trends, and ongoing events relevant to each user. Rather than introducing generic or noisy information, AWARE further anchors these narratives in each user's behavioral context, grounding external world knowledge in personalized spatial-temporal patterns. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AWARE consistently outperforms competitive baselines, achieving up to 12.4% relative improvement.

Most language-model training data shows final artifacts, not the process that produced them. We study a tractable version of this question in tool use: when a model learns a stream of new API domains, does keeping tool-use trajectories help compared with stripping the intermediate API trace? We fine-tune Llama 3.1 8B Instruct with QLoRA on API-Bank using four sequential domain blocks. Condition A strips previous API request/response lines from the prompt and trains the model to predict the next API call. Condition B keeps the trajectory context. In a single-seed pilot, full held-out generation evaluation shows that Condition B reaches 56.9% final exact full-call accuracy compared with 39.2% for Condition A. B also improves final API-name accuracy by 7.7 points. However, B uses 25.1% more training tokens, the run uses one seed, and the task is next-call prediction rather than full dialogue success.

Autonomous language agents increasingly expose traces, memories, plans and constraints, but existing evaluations rarely test whether these state variables are bound to final actions. We introduce causal state binding, an intervention-coupled evaluation framework that measures whether actions change with the event-specific decisive state while remaining invariant to irrelevant cues. The primary readout is a hidden-target finite-action benchmark in which scorer-side intervention targets are assigned before generation and withheld from the model-visible prompt. Across 57,816 scored records in seven corpus-level units, structured-agent conditions exceeded high-randomness controls and targeted component removals on reason, memory, veto and self-continuity responsiveness. Open-weight validation across Qwen2.5 7B, 14B and 32B plus Mistral-7B showed that action priors, no-field prompts and scrambled decisive context did not recover the structured-control signature. In diagnostic finite-action probes, the minimal decisive-field readout recovered the prescribed action pattern whereas surface-only, action-prior-only and scrambled-field controls did not. Across 300 SWE-bench Lite issue records and six API models, adding an oracle-free causal state-binding composite to a full non-CSB baseline increased constraint-clean issue-to-file hit@3 AUC from 0.873 to 0.935. This validation concerns issue-to-file localization, not patch application or SWE-bench issue resolution. These results support a measurement principle for agent evaluation: action control is predicted by event-specific state-action binding, not by output entropy, action-prior matching or rationale format alone.

Human mobility differs from text and from generic time series in three structural ways: visits are tuple-valued events whose meaning depends on the joint distribution over location, time, and activity; users carry persistent signatures across trajectories; and visits are not independent across users, since co-location at shared places is a primary signal. Existing pre-training recipes for mobility import objectives from language modeling, treating trajectories as sentences and visits as tokens, an analogy that fails against each of the three properties above. These properties define a broader class, multi-entity spatiotemporal event streams (MESES), spanning enterprise authentication logs, electronic health records, and other event-stream domains where entities share infrastructure, schedules, or contexts. We make the properties precise as three axioms that any pre-training framework for MESES should satisfy, and introduce TraXion, whose objectives and architecture are jointly designed to meet them. A single TraXion checkpoint per dataset beats task-specific baselines on every task across six public mobility datasets covering anomaly detection, next-POI recommendation, next-visit prediction, and social-link prediction. The same recipe, applied unchanged to enterprise authentication logs and ICU mortality prediction, matches or exceeds prior work on both, showing that event streams from domains as different as mobility, security, and healthcare can be modeled under a single framework.

Live future prediction refers to the task of making predictions about real-world events before they unfold. This task is increasingly studied using large language model-based agent systems, and it is important for building agents that can continually learn from the real world. It can provide a large number of prediction questions grounded in diverse real-world events, while preventing answer leakage. To leverage the advantages of future prediction, we present FutureWorld, a live agentic reinforcement learning environment that closes the training loop between prediction, outcome realization, and parameter updates. Specifically, we modify and extend verl-tool, resulting in a new framework that we call verl-tool-future. Unlike standard reinforcement learning training frameworks that rely on immediate rewards, verl-tool-future stores prediction-time rollouts, backfills rewards after real-world outcomes become available, and then replays the completed trajectories for policy update. Across three open-source agents, successive FutureWorld training rounds lead to consistent improvements in prediction accuracy, probabilistic scoring, and calibration, demonstrating that delayed real-world outcome feedback can serve as an effective reinforcement learning signal.

Many robotic tasks are unforgiving; a single mistake in a dynamic throw can lead to unacceptable delays or unrecoverable failure. We introduce Wiggle and Go!, a two-stage framework for zero-shot rope manipulation: a brief, safe wiggle action is observed to predict descriptive rope parameters, which then conditions a trajectory optimizer for zero-shot goal-conditioned execution. Unlike prior dynamic rope manipulation methods that require large real-world datasets or iterative real-world refinement, our identification module is task-agnostic, supporting diverse manipulation policies without retraining. We achieve a 3.55,cm average accuracy on 3D target striking in real using rope system parameters in comparison to 15.29,cm for uninformed baselines, and over 50% success on multi-objective lobbing and draping tasks. Predicted parameters transfer to unseen motions with 0.95 Pearson correlation between simulated and real rope dynamics, indicating that the identification module generalizes across the task corpus. Project website: https://wiggleandgo.github.io/

We compare lightweight automata-based models (n-grams) with neural architectures (LSTM, Transformer) for next-activity prediction in streaming event logs. Experiments on synthetic patterns and five real-world process mining datasets show that n-grams with appropriate context windows achieve comparable accuracy to neural models while requiring substantially fewer resources. Unlike windowed neural architectures, which show unstable performance patterns, n-grams provide stable and consistent accuracy. While we demonstrate that classical ensemble methods like voting improve n-gram performance, they require running many agents in parallel during inference, increasing memory consumption and latency. We propose an ensemble method, the promotion algorithm, that dynamically selects between two active models during inference, reducing overhead compared to classical voting schemes. On real-world datasets, these ensembles match or exceed the accuracy of non-windowed neural models with lower computational cost.

Vision-Language-Action systems follow instructions to execute multi-step tasks in multimodal environments. Recent VLA approaches typically rely on post-hoc correction mechanisms or operate under fixed task decompositions and alignment schemes. However, once an intermediate step is mis-specified, local errors propagate through subsequent steps and eventually accumulate into cascading failures. To mitigate this compounding effect, we propose Predictive Alignment and Planning Architecture, a framework that uses prediction and contrast to adjust deviations across three levels: actions, subgoals, and trajectories. Semantic alignment is enforced at all levels using a Sinkhorn-based module and a Score-field module. The predictive correction and alignment jointly update the action generator during training, enabling it to adjust fine-grained steps to remain aligned with the overall intent. We further introduce two new metrics to quantify error propagation and recovery processes in tasks, capturing how mistakes spread and fade over long-horizon execution. Experiments show that ReCAPA achieves competitive results on embodied agent benchmarks such as VisualAgentBench, MineDojo, and AI2-THOR, outperforming strong proprietary and open-source Large Language Model baselines.

This paper studies how empirical dialogue-flow statistics can be incorporated into Next Dialogue Act Prediction (NDAP). A KL regularization term is proposed that aligns predicted act distributions with corpus-derived transition patterns. Evaluated on a 60-class German counselling taxonomy using 5-fold cross-validation, this improves macro-F1 by 9--42% relative depending on encoder and substantially improves dialogue-flow alignment. Cross-dataset validation on HOPE suggests that improvements transfer across languages and counselling domains. In systematic ablations across pretrained encoders and architectures, the findings indicate that transition regularization provides consistent gains and disproportionately benefits weaker baseline models. The results suggest that lightweight discourse-flow priors complement pretrained encoders, especially in fine-grained, data-sparse dialogue tasks.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a promising paradigm for building embodied agents that ground perception and language into action. However, most existing approaches rely on direct action prediction, lacking the ability to reason over long-horizon trajectories and evaluate their consequences, which limits performance in complex decision-making tasks. In this work, we introduce World-Value-Action (WAV) model, a unified framework that enables implicit planning in VLA systems. Rather than performing explicit trajectory optimization, WAV model learn a structured latent representation of future trajectories conditioned on visual observations and language instructions. A learned world model predicts future states, while a trajectory value function evaluates their long-horizon utility. Action generation is then formulated as inference in this latent space, where the model progressively concentrates probability mass on high-value and dynamically feasible trajectories. We provide a theoretical perspective showing that planning directly in action space suffers from an exponential decay in the probability of feasible trajectories as the horizon increases. In contrast, latent-space inference reshapes the search distribution toward feasible regions, enabling efficient long-horizon decision making. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments demonstrate that the WAV model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving significant improvements in task success rate, generalization ability, and robustness, especially in long-horizon and compositional scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/Win-commit/WAV.

We introduce \textbf{LaMP}, a dual-expert Vision-Language-Action framework that embeds dense 3D scene flow as a latent motion prior for robotic manipulation.Existing VLA models regress actions directly from 2D semantic visual features, forcing them to learn complex 3D physical interactions implicitly.This implicit learning strategy degrades under unfamiliar spatial dynamics.LaMP addresses this limitation by aligning a flow-matching \emph{Motion Expert} with a policy-predicting \emph{Action Expert} through gated cross-attention.Specifically, the Motion Expert generates a one-step partially denoised 3D scene flow, and its hidden states condition the Action Expert without full multi-step reconstruction.We evaluate LaMP on the LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, and SimplerEnv-WidowX simulation benchmarks as well as real-world experiments.LaMP consistently outperforms evaluated VLA baselines across LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, and SimplerEnv-WidowX benchmarks, achieving the highest reported average success rates under the same training budgets. On LIBERO-Plus OOD perturbations, LaMP shows improved robustness with an average 9.7% gain over the strongest prior baseline.Our project page is available at https://summerwxk.github.io/lamp-project-page/.

We present a novel paradigm for ultra-low-bitrate image compression (ULB-IC) that exploits the ``temporal'' evolution in generative image compression. Specifically, we define an explicit intermediate state during decoding: a compact anchor frame, which preserves the scene geometry and semantic layout while discarding high-frequency details. We then reinterpret generative decoding as a virtual temporal transition from this anchor to the final reconstructed image. To model this progression, we leverage a pretrained video diffusion model (VDM) as a temporal prior: the anchor frame serves as the initial frame and the original image as the target frame, transforming the decoding process into a next-frame prediction task. In contrast to image diffusion-based ULB-IC models, our decoding proceeds from a visible, semantically faithful anchor, which improves both fidelity and realism for perceptual image compression. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior rate-distortion performance. On the CLIC2020 test set, our method achieves over 50% bitrate savings across LPIPS, DISTS, FID, and KID compared to DiffC, while also delivering a significant decoding speedup of up to $\times$5. Code will be released at https://github.com/UnoC-727/NeFIC.

Open-Vocabulary Temporal Action Localization (OV-TAL) aims to recognize and localize instances of any desired action categories in videos without explicitly curating training data for all categories. Existing methods mostly recognize action categories at a single granularity, which degrades the recognition accuracy of both base and novel action categories. To address these issues, we propose a Multi-Grained Category-Aware Network (MGCA-Net) comprising a localizer, an action presence predictor, a conventional classifier, and a coarse-to-fine classifier. Specifically, the localizer localizes category-agnostic action proposals. For these action proposals, the action presence predictor estimates the probability that they belong to an action instance. At the same time, the conventional classifier predicts the probability of each action proposal over base action categories at the snippet granularity. Novel action categories are recognized by the coarse-to-fine classifier, which first identifies action presence at the video granularity. Finally, it assigns each action proposal to one category from the coarse categories at the proposal granularity. Through coarse-to-fine category awareness for novel actions and the conventional classifier's awareness of base actions, multi-grained category awareness is achieved, effectively enhancing localization performance. Comprehensive evaluations on the THUMOS'14 and ActivityNet-1.3 benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, our MGCA-Net achieves state-of-the-art results under the Zero-Shot Temporal Action Localization setting.

We pose uncertainty quantification and exploration in online decision-making as a problem of training and generation from an autoregressive sequence model, an area experiencing rapid innovation. Our approach rests on viewing uncertainty as arising from missing future outcomes that could be revealed through action choices, rather than from unobservable latent parameters of the environment. This reformulation aligns naturally with modern machine learning capabilities: we can i) train generative models through next-outcome prediction rather than fit explicit priors, ii) assess uncertainty through autoregressive generation rather than sampling latent parameters from posteriors, and iii) adapt to new information by extending the sequence model's context rather than explicit posterior updating. Our main theoretical result establishes a reduction from online decision-making to offline next-outcome prediction: Bayesian regret is controlled directly by the sequence model's offline prediction loss, without requiring an explicit latent-variable posterior. Experiments, including a semi-synthetic news recommendation task, show that autoregressive generation produces calibrated epistemic uncertainty and enables effective exploration by using article text as prior information to focus exploration on resolving remaining uncertainties.

Scheduled batch jobs are widely used on asynchronous computing platforms to execute enterprise applications such as promotional notifications and candidate pre-computation for recommender systems. Delivering or updating information at the right time is important for user experience and execution impact, yet providing a versatile, personalized execution time optimization solution across diverse product scenarios while maintaining reasonable infrastructure costs remains challenging. In this paper, we present a deployed system that serves billions of users daily, combining learning-to-rank with a "best time policy" for execution time selection. We describe the four-stage evolution of our approach: from heuristic peak-hour rules, to pointwise ML-based activity pattern predictions, to a linear signal assembler with globally fixed weights, and finally to a contextual ensemble learner that produces per-user adaptive fusion weights via a neural policy network trained with listwise learning-to-rank objectives. We further report the discovery of cross-use-case cannibalization effects and introduce a coordination system to mitigate the problem. Our production experiments demonstrate measurable improvements in both execution efficiency and downstream product impact. We share deployment lessons including failure analyses and design decisions accumulated over four years of operating this system at scale. To our knowledge, this represents the first ML-based multi-tenant execution time optimization system deployed across different product domains at industrial scale.