Inferring

We propose a framework for restricted inference on random dot product graphs whose latent positions lie on an unknown low-dimensional support manifold. For general decision problems, we propose semisupervised decision rules that use auxiliary data to learn the support manifold. Specifically, our rules use the Isomap manifold learning procedure to construct a low-dimensional Euclidean representation of the observed graph, in which space an isometrically invariant function maps configurations of points to actions. We study the behavior of the proposed rules as the quantity of auxiliary data sampled from the unknown support manifold increases. We show that, as the auxiliary sample size increases, the risk of the semisupervised rule converges to the risk of an oracle rule that relies on the maximal amount of low-dimensional Euclidean structure that can be extracted from the support manifold. Examples, applications, and simulation studies are deferred to a sequel.

LLM serving is typically offered as a shared, multi-tenant service, where high-demand workloads from one client can cause latency SLO violations for others. Existing solutions for performance isolation equalize client throughput in the long run, for example through queueing and batching fairness. However, these approaches do not provide latency isolation guarantees; as a result, well-behaved clients can still experience significant degradation to their token-level latencies. In this paper, we present FairInference, which provides the novel δ-token fairness guarantee: for a well-behaved client, if a token is generated in d time units in isolation, it will be generated within d + δ time units in multi-tenant execution, providing strong latency isolation guarantees for LLM serving. To achieve this, FairInference addresses a key challenge of LLM serving: bounding delays from sharing GPU resources without support for fine-grained scheduling or resource allocation. In FairInference, the scheduler enforces per-token deadlines, while bounding the delays from GPU compute sharing and accounting for the additional delays introduced by the shared KV caching in GPU memory. We show that FairInference effectively bounds token-level latency spikes for well-behaved clients and improves overall throughput compared to state-of-the-art LLM serving systems.

Diversity is a widely observed factor in the resilient function of collective systems, yet the type of diversity that matters depends on the properties and failure modes of the system. This distinction is important for systems composed of multiple language models. Different models may be treated as independent components even when their behaviour and failures remain strongly correlated. Assessments of language-model populations using semantic similarity demonstrate limited semantic diversity, but this captures only differences in the meaning of observed outputs. We argue that a more fundamental notion of model diversity is generative-process diversity, the differences between processes capable of generating the observed outputs. Drawing from Algorithmic Information Theory, we use Normalised Compression Distance between raw model outputs, residualised against a permutation control, as a measure of inferred generative-process diversity. Across 38 language models, this measure identifies population structure missed by semantic similarity and predicts cross-task variation in chance-corrected correlated failure among model pairs across ten disjoint benchmark families, beyond semantic similarity and model-pair capability. The cross-benchmark partial rank association is $-0.216$ with a 95% interval of $[-0.309,-0.122]$, and the estimate is negative on all ten benchmarks. These results indicate that increased generative-process diversity is associated with reduced correlated failure in model pairs that is not attributable to semantic similarity or capability. Inferred generative-process diversity offers a novel and practical approach for investigating diversity of multi-model systems in safety-relevant contexts.

World-Action Models (WAMs) build robot control on video-generation backbones, which jointly predict dense future visual trajectories and robot actions. We argue that video generation is an unnecessary intermediate objective for world-action modeling. For robotic manipulation, the goal of a world model is not to reproduce how the world looks at every intermediate moment, but to predict the state that the world will reach after an action is executed. The intermediate frames only describe the visual transition between physical states, which consumes substantial model capacity and computation, but do not directly specify the physical outcome that the robot action is intended to produce. In this paper, we propose DELE-w0.5, which infers robot actions from predicted future states without relying on video generation. Concretely, DELE-w0.5 infers the action sequence from its corresponding compact future latent state. The future latent state captures the action-relevant physical outcome of robot interaction and serves as an explicit bridge between world modeling and action generation. The core design principle of DELE-w0.5 is to model how the physical world changes under robot actions, rather than how its visual appearance evolves frame by frame. This formulation removes the high-dimensional visual redundancy introduced by dense video representations, and it therefore enables cheaper training and low-latency inference. Across 640 real-robot trials on four long-horizon manipulation tasks, our DELE-w0.5 achieves the best performance among all compared policies, attaining 62.5% overall full-task success and 81.3% macro ordered-stage progress. It outperforms the strongest baseline by 32.5 percentage points in full-task success and 20.1 percentage points in macro progress.

Personalized LLMs with persistent memory are increasingly deployed, yet the faithfulness of their user models remains unexamined. We study over-inference (OI): the phenomenon where LLMs fabricate user attributes beyond what evidence supports. We introduce MirageBench, comprising 150 personas balanced across stereotypical, counter-stereotypical, and neutral profiles, 6 personalization tasks spanning an ``imagination gradient'', a four-way faithfulness taxonomy operationalized by an independent judge (validated against a blind human annotator on 400 claims: Cohen's kappa = 0.863 four-class, kappa = 0.900 binary), and a leaderboard of 12 models across 7 families on 143616 judged claims. We find that over-inference is pervasive: every one of the 12 models over-infers 35%--49% of its claims (cross-model mean 41.6%; claim-weighted 41.8%), with no model in this evaluation escaping it. Most strikingly, we surface a Self-Monitoring Inversion: at the model-selection level, models' self-assessed OI is negatively rank-correlated with their judge-measured OI (rho = -0.60, p = 0.044; exploratory, wide bootstrap CI [-0.90, +0.06], n = 12). The models that report the least over-inference tend to be flagged as fabricating the most, so self-reported confidence is a misleading signal for comparing models, even though within a single model self-audit still ranks that model's own claims moderately well (AUROC 0.58--0.83). We further show that OI is task-dependent (27%--59%) and that, in a multi-turn pilot, inferred attributes accumulate approximately linearly with little revision. MirageBench positions external verification, rather than model self-report, as a more reliable foundation for trustworthy personalization.

Heavy tails weaken high-confidence control for the empirical mean. Geometric median-of-means (MOM) also lacks a threshold that moves toward mean efficiency. We propose \emph{HOMER}, or Huber-of-Means for Efficient and Robust Estimation. HOMER aggregates block means through a radial Huber center. Its canonical and pseudo-Huber forms bound each block score and interpolate between median-like robustness and the empirical mean. We establish a Hilbert-space majority theorem and a MOM-order deviation bound under a finite second moment. Canonical HOMER recovers the sample mean inside its quadratic region. Pseudo-HOMER approaches the sample mean as the threshold grows. It also admits asymptotic linearity and consistent sandwich covariance estimation around the population block-Huber target. Under a finite third moment, fixed finite-dimensional projections support mean inference at the usual parametric rate. This result requires growing block sizes and counts, with block sizes increasing faster. Heavy-tailed simulations show that HOMER remains stable when a minority of block summaries is displaced. On clean Gaussian data, both versions closely approach the empirical mean's efficiency. Finite-block sandwich intervals undercovered, especially for skewed functional data. Further studies show failure when contamination affects most blocks or compromises ordinary within-block means.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision exposes intermediate rationales, but flat rationale targets usually optimize a single reasoning sequence and provide limited supervision on how local conclusions should support later decisions. We introduce Dependency-Aware Intermediate QA Supervision (DAIS), a training-time framework that converts filtered teacher rationales into stage-level QA records. Each intermediate record predicts a local answer conditioned on the previous states needed for that decision, while the final-answer record keeps the original task format; evaluation therefore uses only the original input and optional context. Across GDPR, AIACT, MedQA, and FOLIO with multiple Qwen backbones, DAIS improves average final-answer accuracy over answer-only, flat chain-of-thought, and independent-QA baselines. On policy-compliance benchmarks, it achieves a largest gain of 5.6% and an average gain of 4.2% over the strongest non-DAIS baseline. Controlled ablations show that valid previous-state conditioning contributes beyond longer targets or additional intermediate text, supporting dependency-conditioned intermediate QA as a lightweight auxiliary supervision signal for standard final-answer inference.

Large language models can synthesize a game's rules as executable code - a Code World Model (CWM) - which a classical planner then searches over. Such models are typically accepted when they reach high transition accuracy on sampled trajectories. We argue this is the wrong notion of adequacy for planning. We show four things. (1) An LLM-synthesized CWM can pass a sampling gate at 100% transition accuracy and be $\geq 98\%$ state-accurate on the planner's own search distribution, yet lose systematically at play, because the $<1\%$ it gets wrong is exactly the pivotal dynamics; the play cost of the omitted rule is $0.091$ (seed-clustered 95% CI $[0.065,0.117]$, $n=4800$). We call this the verified-vs-correct gap, and confirm it end-to-end through the synthesis pipeline. (2) The harm follows a quantitative law, $\mathrm{danger}=\mathrm{play\_cost}\times(1-\mathrm{rarity})^N$, whose $(1-\mathrm{rarity})^N$ gate-miss factor is proven exact and whose play cost is empirically bounded. (3) The failure is not repaired by more data: LLM synthesis behaves as rule translation, not rule inference, and did not infer the omitted rule across models (GPT-5.x) and data regimes (including DAgger and targeted examples). (4) The same mechanism recurs on the belief-inference function of imperfect-information CWMs: we prove a coverage bound (a size-$N$ gate is identifying when $N\gtrsim b^{d_{\max}}$), explaining why shallow games such as Kuhn poker show no gap, and hand-construct Beacon, a verified-but-wrong inference function that passes the gate yet loses every game. These results suggest adequacy for planning-oriented world models should be measured on the search distribution or by play directly, not by prediction accuracy on sampled transitions.

Urban region profiling constitutes a core problem in urban computing, supporting applications such as population estimation, economic assessment, and environmental monitoring. Existing methods typically formulate this task as multimodal representation learning, fusing heterogeneous urban data, e.g., satellite imagery, points of interest, textual descriptions, and 3D building information, into latent embeddings for prediction. However, these approaches are largely correlation-driven, assume cross-modal consistency, and rely on static pipelines, which limit their robustness in heterogeneous or unseen urban regions. We propose UrbanAgent, an agentic framework that reframes urban region profiling as a reasoning-driven inference problem. UrbanAgent instantiates an independent agent for each data modality and performs structured multi-agent collaborative reasoning to explicitly address cross-modal inconsistencies rather than absorbing them into a single representation. In addition, UrbanAgent extends indicator prediction as a closed-loop process of active evidence acquisition and iterative reasoning, enabling agents to verify uncertain inferences through tool-augmented retrieval of external knowledge optimized via reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments on global urban datasets for Carbon emissions, GDP, and Population estimation show that UrbanAgent consistently outperforms existing baselines, achieving an average improvement of 8.1% in R2, and exhibiting strong generalization performance in unseen-city settings.

Biomedical question answering requires not only accurate extraction of information from scientific literature but also reliable integration of evidence across multiple documents. This study presents a question-type-specific large language model (LLM) framework for BioASQ 14b Task B, designed to improve answer robustness and evidence grounding in biomedical question answering. Rather than applying a single prompting strategy to all questions, the framework selects different inference procedures for yes/no, factoid, and list questions according to their distinct reasoning and evaluation requirements. For yes/no questions, snippet shuffling and self-reflection are used to reduce sensitivity to evidence ordering and improve decision stability. For factoid questions, full-snippet input is combined with chain-of-thought-based in-context learning to support accurate biomedical entity identification. For list questions, a multi-agent architecture is employed, in which evidence extraction, candidate generation, answer verification, and final aggregation are handled collaboratively. Preliminary experiments on BioASQ 13b were used to identify effective inference strategies for each question type, and the resulting framework was subsequently evaluated in the official BioASQ 14b Task B challenge. In the official evaluation, our framework showed competitive performance across multiple batches and achieved first place in the factoid subtask of Batch 4. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of combining question-type-specific inference, ensemble prediction, and agent-based verification for reliable biomedical question answering.

Long-video reasoning is fundamentally constrained by how models acquire and utilize visual evidence. Existing tool-augmented video frameworks often interleave temporal grounding and answer reasoning within a single trajectory, causing early semantic hypotheses to bias evidence localization. We term this failure mode premature semantic commitment, where biased grounding retrieves incomplete evidence and incomplete evidence further reinforces incorrect reasoning. To address this issue, we propose EFlow, an evidence-first video reasoning framework built upon Qwen3-VL. EFlow explicitly separates temporal grounding and logical reasoning through CoT for Temporal Grounding and CoT for Reasoning, enabling the model to retrieve relevant evidence before answer inference. In addition, EFlow introduces a confidence-aware reflection mechanism that re-evaluates the full video when retrieved evidence is potentially insufficient. We further construct dedicated trajectory datasets and train EFlow through supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and reinforcement fine-tuning. Extensive experiments across five video understanding benchmarks demonstrate that EFlow consistently improves long-video reasoning performance.

Inferring others' beliefs requires more than reading surface signals; it requires tracking who told them what, in what order, and how credibly. The Theory of Mind Utility (ToM-U) formalizes this epistemic state inference problem at the computational level of analysis, specifying what mentalizing computes and why without commitment to algorithmic or neural implementation. ToM-U achieves this by constructing Local Epistemic World Models (LEWMs) -- directed typed graphs that represent agents, state nodes, and the epistemic relationships among them -- and evaluating discrete candidate LEWMs against observed behavior until one achieves sufficient confidence. Five formal definitions specify the LEWM structure, agent node properties including ordered information access history, a bounded proliferation mechanism for recursive mentalizing, three inference procedures, and a residue function that captures the structured trace left by failed mentalizing attempts. ToM-U differs from Bayesian Theory of Mind and adjacent formal accounts, which presuppose rather than derive belief states, and from simulation theory and theory-theory, which lack a formal apparatus for epistemic state inference. The architecture generates directional, falsifiable predictions about mentalizing failure that follow from structural properties of the model rather than auxiliary assumptions, and positions ToM-U as a domain-agnostic mechanism upstream of goal inference and other downstream social cognitive processes.

Inferring the forces that drive a dynamical system from partial observations is a fundamental challenge across physics, particularly when distinct underlying mechanisms produce similar observable dynamics. Here we show that the effective muscular forcing underlying avian respiratory dynamics can be reconstructed from measurements of air-sac pressure alone. Using an interpretable learning framework based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks, we infer the governing equations of the system directly from data and uncover a nontrivial structure in the underlying forcing that is not apparent from the pressure signal, which instead suggests a relaxation-like oscillation. The reconstructed dynamics predict a two-phase activation pattern within each respiratory cycle, which we independently validate through electromyographic recordings of expiratory muscles. These results demonstrate that data-driven reconstruction of dynamical laws can reveal hidden physical structure and provide access to unobserved driving variables, establishing a general route to infer latent forces in partially observed dynamical systems.

The parameter counts of the most widely used large language models (LLMs) are often withheld by their developers, leaving model size -- a primary reference point for interpreting capabilities and costs -- largely undisclosed. We propose a black-box method to infer conservative lower bounds on LLM size from generated text outputs alone, requiring nothing beyond the ability to submit text fragments and observe next-token predictions. Our approach is grounded in a key observation: popular, widely-circulated texts -- such as classical literature, religious texts, and foundational documents -- are present in virtually every large-scale pretraining corpus, and how accurately a model predicts the next word across text fragments of varying length is a reliable signal of how much it has memorized them, which in turn is fundamentally limited by its total parameter count. We aggregate this memorization signal across a diverse corpus of texts and fragment lengths into a single accuracy profile vector per model, and build two complementary inference methods on top of it: a pairwise statistical test that determines which of two models is larger, and a scaling-law estimator that extracts a one-dimensional latent index from these vectors via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to map the aggregated signal to a parameter count. Validated on a broad set of open-weight models, both methods produce accurate and reliable lower bounds. When applied to popular closed-weight models, our framework recovers internal product hierarchies and reveals a clear divergence in industry scaling strategies: while some developers yield significantly higher bounds indicative of large generational parameter growth, others operate under strict parameter ceilings, demonstrating that hidden design choices can be systematically probed even under strict API limitations.

Real world decision-making requires constructing mental models under uncertainty over evidence, over the underlying causal rules, and over the state of the world itself. Which computational principles underpin human inference under such conditions, and do LLM-based agents exhibit similar behavior given matching constraints? We address these questions using an inductive inference Box Task in which participants, human children and LLM-based agents, infer a latent cause through sequential interaction with an uncertain environment. We formalize this task as program induction with Bayesian particle-based inference, admitting two complementary interpretations: (1) as a constraint satisfaction process over hypotheses, and (2) as a program synthesis problem in which hypotheses are executable programs evaluated against evidence. Using the constraint-based formulation, we show that children's behavior is best explained by a combination of subjective evidence reliability and online hypothesis generation, accounting for both their evidence-seeking patterns and their dissociation between task completion and rule generalization. Using the program synthesis formulation, we treat LLM-based agents as model organisms: controllable systems that allow systematic manipulation of task conditions. Across backends, LLM-based agents replicate children's responses to changes in evidence reliability and observability, including discounting unreliable evidence, seeking to resolve partial information, and dissociating between task completion and causal generalization. At the same time, LLM-based agents tend to over-observe and over-comply with instructions relative to children. These results suggest that while children and LLM-based agents adapt similarly to environmental structure, their information-seeking behavior exhibits distinct underlying costs and inductive biases.

Inferring rigid-body physical states and properties from monocular videos is a fundamental step toward physics-based perception and simulation. Existing approaches assume specific underlying physical systems, object types, and camera poses, making them unable to generalize to complex real-world settings. We introduce $Δ$YNAMICS, a vision-language framework that uses language as a unified representation of rigid-body dynamics. Instead of directly predicting parameters, $Δ$YNAMICS generates scene configurations in a structured text format for physics simulation. We enhance the model's generalization by integrating natural language motion reasoning and leveraging optical flow as a semantic-agnostic input. On the CLEVRER dataset, $Δ$YNAMICS achieves a segmentation IoU of 0.30, a 7x improvement over leading VLMs (InternVL3-8B, Qwen2.5-VL-7B and Claude-4-Sonnet). Additionally, test-time sampling and evolutionary search further boost performance by 27% and 120% in segmentation IoU, respectively. Finally, we demonstrate strong transfer to a new dataset of 235 real-world rigid-body videos, highlighting the potential of language-driven physics inference for bridging perception and simulation.

Reasoning systems increasingly separate intermediate computation into private and public channels, creating evaluation cases that look similar in transcripts: independent co-derivation, direct access to private content, and indirect influence through public communication. This paper presents a counterfactual likelihood test for measuring influence between private reasoning channels. The method replaces an upstream private block with a length-matched donor block, holds the public token sequence and downstream target fixed, and measures the downstream target's negative-log-likelihood shift. On a 7B role-channel reasoning model used for validation, textual probes are unreliable: raw n-gram overlap overstates leakage, corrected overlap remains noisy, and canary reproduction reports no discrimination. Counterfactual likelihood separates unmasked and masked conditions, while length matching controls a RoPE positional confound. In the hardened masked validation, reverse B-to-A influence is near zero, while A-to-B influence persists through public-speech hidden states. A multi-checkpoint validation across three checkpoints, five seeds, and 13,734 valid directional contrasts replicates this asymmetry. A graph-separation control that blocks private-to-public carrier edges produces bit-identical natural and counterfactual scores across all 13,734 control evaluations, identifying the tested public-channel pathway as the complete carrier of the measured counterfactual signal under the implemented role-visibility mask. The results show that private-channel evaluation should report direct and indirect influence separately, and that counterfactual likelihood probes provide a practical default for measuring these boundaries.

Language models (LMs) behave more like humans when their cognitive resources are restricted, particularly in predicting sentence processing costs such as reading times. However, it remains unclear whether such constraints similarly affect sentence comprehension strategies. Besides, existing methods do not directly target the balance between memory storage and sentence processing, which is central to human working memory. To address this issue, we propose a dual-task paradigm that combines an arithmetic computation task with a sentence comprehension task, such as "The 2 cocktail + blended 3 =..." Our experiments show that under dual-task conditions, GPT-4o, o3-mini, and o4-mini shift toward plausibility-based comprehension, mirroring humans' rational inference. Specifically, these models show a greater accuracy gap between plausible sentences (e.g., "The cocktail was blended by the bartender") and implausible sentences (e.g., "The bartender was blended by the cocktail") in the dual-task condition compared to the single-task conditions. These findings suggest that constraints on the balance between memory and processing resources promote rational inference in LMs. More broadly, they support the view that human-like sentence comprehension fundamentally arises from the allocation of limited cognitive resources.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable fluency and versatility across a wide range of NLP tasks, yet they remain prone to factual inaccuracies and hallucinations. This limitation poses significant risks in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and scientific communication, where trust and verifiability are paramount. In this paper, we introduce DAVinCI - a Dual Attribution and Verification framework designed to enhance the factual reliability and interpretability of LLM outputs. DAVinCI operates in two stages: (i) it attributes generated claims to internal model components and external sources; (ii) it verifies each claim using entailment-based reasoning and confidence calibration. We evaluate DAVinCI across multiple datasets, including FEVER and CLIMATE-FEVER, and compare its performance against standard verification-only baselines. Our results show that DAVinCI significantly improves classification accuracy, attribution precision, recall, and F1-score by 5-20%. Through an extensive ablation study, we isolate the contributions of evidence span selection, recalibration thresholds, and retrieval quality. We also release a modular DAVinCI implementation that can be integrated into existing LLM pipelines. By bridging attribution and verification, DAVinCI offers a scalable path to auditable, trustworthy AI systems. This work contributes to the growing effort to make LLMs not only powerful but also accountable.

The interpretation of implicit meanings is an integral aspect of human communication. However, this framework may not transfer to interactions with Large Language Models (LLMs). To investigate this, we introduce the task of Implicit Information Extraction (IIE) and propose an LLM-based IIE pipeline that builds a structured knowledge graph from a context sentence by extracting relational triplets, validating implicit inferences, and analyzing temporal relations. We evaluate two LLMs against crowdsourced human judgments on two datasets. We find that humans agree with most model triplets yet consistently propose many additions, indicating limited coverage in current LLM-based IIE. Moreover, in our experiments, models appear to be more conservative about implicit inferences than humans in socially rich contexts, whereas humans become more conservative in shorter, fact-oriented contexts. Our code is available at https://github.com/Antonio-Dee/IIE_from_LLM.

Social understanding abilities are crucial for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to interpret human social interactions. We introduce SOCIAL CAPTION, a framework grounded in interaction theory to evaluate social understanding abilities of MLLMs along three dimensions: Social Inference (SI), the ability to make accurate inferences about interactions; Holistic Social Analysis (HSA), the ability to generate comprehensive descriptions of interactions; Directed Social Analysis (DSA), the ability to generate relevant information from interactions. We analyze factors influencing model performance in social understanding, such as scale, architectural design, and spoken context. Experiments with MLLM judges demonstrate a path towards scaling automated evaluation of multimodal social understanding.

Existing reinforcement learning methods for LLM reasoning implicitly assume that the policy generating training trajectories should coincide with the one producing inference responses. We argue that this is a misleading inductive bias: the optimization-optimal trajectory distribution favors informative gradients, whereas the inference-optimal response distribution emphasizes accuracy and consistency. Forcing both into a single policy entangles their gradients and suppresses exploration. We propose R$^2$PO (Residual Rollout Policy Optimization), which attaches a lightweight Residual Rollout-Head atop the policy to decouple training trajectories from inference responses, diversifying rollouts during training while keeping inference generation intact. Experiments show that R$^2$PO consistently outperforms baselines, with average accuracy gains of 3.4% on MATH-500 and 1.3% on APPS, alongside more diverse rollouts and reduced length bias. Our code is available at https://github.com/RRPO-ARR/Code.

Natural-language instructions rarely specify every detail required for embodied action. An agent asked to ``prepare an apple,'' for example, must still determine whether to wash or cut it, where to place it, and in what order to perform these actions. Such decisions often reflect user-specific preferences that are demonstrated through behavior but never explicitly stated. We study whether embodied agents can infer these latent preferences from a small number of prior demonstrations and apply them when planning in new situations. To support systematic evaluation, we introduce Preference-based Planning (PbP), a benchmark containing 5,000 evaluation groups and 290 preferences organized into three levels: atomic action parameters, strategic interaction and placement policies, and temporal ordering constraints. We further propose Inferring the Unspoken (InTU), a two-stage framework that first verbalizes the preference inferred from multimodal behavioral demonstrations and then generates an action plan conditioned on that explicit representation. Experiments with video-language and language models reveal a substantial preference-acquisition gap: models plan effectively when given the ground-truth preference, but their performance degrades sharply when the same preference must be inferred from behavior. Explicit verbalization consistently improves alignment over direct end-to-end planning, particularly for strong multimodal models, and provides greater robustness when preferences must transfer across visually distinct scenes. These results identify visual-to-semantic preference acquisition, rather than preference-conditioned planning alone, as a central bottleneck in personalized embodied intelligence. They also demonstrate that language can serve as an interpretable and transferable intermediate representation between observed behavior and personalized action.

As AI systems become increasingly persistent and personalized, they make possible a class of technologies that we call cognitive digital twins (CDTs): dynamic computational representations of a specific person's cognition, updated from behavioral, contextual, or physiological data in order to model, predict, or simulate that person's cognition, or to act as that person's communicative or decision-making proxy. CDTs combine cognitive inference with longitudinal representation, simulation, and proxy action in ways that existing governance strategies for personal assistants, autonomous agents, recommender systems, and automated decision systems only partially address. This paper makes four contributions. First, we define CDTs and distinguish them from adjacent systems. Second, we introduce a 5A governance framework organized around authority, autonomy, access and control, accountability, and availability. Third, we identify CDT-specific risks, from misrepresentation and epistemic authority shifts to shadow twins, simulated participation, proxy action, and proxy-power asymmetries. Fourth, we analyze governance gaps and propose requirements for high-risk CDTs that strengthen consent, purpose limitation, validity, traceability, contestation, independent review, and model retirement. Existing frameworks primarily regulate data processing, automated decisions, or autonomous actions; CDTs also require governance at the level of cognitive representation itself, before any final decision or external action occurs. We argue that CDTs require governance not only because they can act for people, but because they can become infrastructures through which cognition is represented, simulated, classified, and operationalized.