Possibilities

Momentum

3 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 24

Sep 28, 2026cs.AI

From cacophony to hierarchy: a principled framework for assessing AI consciousness

The question of AI consciousness is one of the most urgent pre-emptive problems in philosophy and computer science, yet progress is hampered by a cacophony of competing theories that often talk past each other. Separating the hard problem from the mapping problem allows the deepest metaphysical disagreements to be set aside: granting that experience supervenes on a system's organisation, the tractable question becomes at which grain of description that supervenience base sits. We extend Marr's three levels of analysis into a five-level hierarchy of functional descriptions (behavioural, computational, intrinsic causal-structural, organismic, and organism-environment) grounded in supervenience, coarse-graining, and multiple realisability. The major theories of consciousness are positioned within this hierarchy according to which level they take to be critical, and for each level we develop operationalisable indicators and assess current AI systems against them. A Bayesian model then combines theoretical credences with indicator evidence into an overall credence in a system's capacity for consciousness. In illustrative assessments, the verdict for current LLMs is driven as much by where theoretical credence is placed as by how the evidence is read: under different stipulated readings and credence distributions, assessments range from below 0.01 to roughly 0.8, showing sensitivity to assumptions. Finally, the consciousness indicators at each level closely overlap with the architectural features needed for general intelligence, suggesting that increasingly capable AI may become a stronger candidate for consciousness. The framework supports a structured agnosticism, in which theoretical commitments are made explicit, credences are updated as evidence accumulates, and assessments take the form of aggregated probabilities rather than verdicts.
Sep 25, 2026cs.CR

XPhysICS: Cross-Physical-Domain Threat Grounding for Industrial Control Systems Security

Industrial control system attacks are usually documented in terms of the plant where they occurred: its sensors, actuators, process stages, and control logic. Yet many attacks express a more general physical pattern--such as suppressing flow, corrupting chemical dosing, or driving a vessel toward overflow--that may also matter in a different plant. The challenge is deciding when such a threat remains meaningful on a new system rather than relying on similar component names or broad semantic labels. We present XPhysICS, a methodology for grounding documented cyber-physical threats onto a specific target system. XPhysICS converts source evidence into a provenance-linked description of what is manipulated, what physical consequence is expected, and what observations the evidence calls for. Once this analyst-guided abstraction, its vocabulary and schema version, and a target contract are fixed, XPhysICS applies deterministic grounding checks. An accepted result can be represented as a validation slice that records the mapped roles, signals, dependencies, and context intended to support later evaluation. We study 83 threat abstractions across continuous-process and manufacturing sources using separate evaluation denominators. The continuous-process study evaluates 78 abstractions against target contracts spanning water treatment, water distribution, hydropower, and chemical processes. Selected cases are exercised through controlled perturbations of simulator-role signals. We also test compatibility with several analysis styles, including the released upstream GeCo implementation, and conduct a three-objective, one-target realizability study using a paper-derived search reproduction. Across these evaluated settings, the results support treating explicit target checks and traceable evidence as separate from semantic similarity alone.
Sep 16, 2026cs.SD

A State-Space Model of Figured-Bass Realization: Local Constraints, Coupled Voices, and Polynomial-Time Solvability

Figured-bass realization can be described as a sequence of choices constrained both within each sonority and between successive sonorities. This paper gives an explicit mathematical model of a restricted, examination-style four-part realization problem. Pitch spelling, range, chord membership, doubling, omission, spacing, crossing, overlap, melodic motion, consecutive perfect intervals, and selected resolution requirements are expressed as predicates. We distinguish hard constraints from optional preference costs. Four labeled notes are represented visually as the vertices of a quadrilateral and computationally as one ordered voicing state. Legal progressions become paths through a layered graph. We prove that feasibility and minimum-cost realization are polynomial-time problems for a fixed number of voices with explicit finite note domains and fixed local rules. For fixed ranges, a fixed note alphabet, and adjacent-event rules, the number of graph operations is linear in the number of events. Worked two-, four-, and eight-beat examples illustrate legality, optimization, and the failure of a greedy choice. The result concerns the stated formal model; it is not a claim that every musical judgment is captured by local predicates.
Sep 16, 2026cs.LG

Transformation Laws in Neural Representations: Structure, Realisability, and Construction

How neural representations preserve the structure of input changes connects representation analysis with internal intervention. We study operable representational content through compatible actions of reference transformations on neural features. We characterise when a transformation descends through an encoder, and give a linear setting in which the defect is governed by the transformation's demand for discarded information, measured in the metric the representation induces. On a rectifier the failure to realise a transformation has two distinguishable sources --- what the source region has already made unrecoverable, and what it costs to satisfy every region the transformation visits with one operator --- and for a \textit{measured} harmonic carrier the same question has a closed answer: a linear realisation exists exactly when the retained harmonic blocks are invariant under the action. Using colour as the in-depth instance, we find that hue orbits in frozen visual features concentrate 84--88% of their energy in the first two harmonics with rotation planes shared across shapes, that this organisation is substantially inherited from input and architecture and is reshaped by training and depth, and that the measured structure supports prediction, transport from new starting states, and composition --- with global and local realisations differing sharply in which they achieve. Guided by the measurements, we construct a compact interface whose rotation action is fixed by the structure and never fitted: it reads hue zero-shot at 3.4∘^\circ median error on unseen shapes. Theory, structural measurement, and construction together establish transformation laws as a concrete object connecting the understanding of neural representations to their design.
Aug 8, 2026cs.LG

Opportunity Is Not Realizability: Selection-Valid Diagnostics for Multi-LLM Routing

Oracle routing measures how much a pool of language models could gain from per-query selection, but the diagnostic has two flaws: testing against a best fixed model selected on the same examples invalidates paired inference, and a full-information oracle sees outcomes no deployable router observes. We separate three estimands (outcome-oracle opportunity, the Bayes-optimal gain from a declared pre-answer signal, and the held-out gain of a learned router) and prove selection-valid confidence intervals that survive choosing the best fixed model or the best member of a router family, a signal-information sandwich, and a (1−1/e)(1-1/e) greedy guarantee for building compact pools from submodular complementary coverage. On eight checkpoints from six families over four benchmarks, selection-valid intervals certify a population oracle gap of 9.79.7--30.730.7 points on every task, yet the strongest deployable prompt router recovers only 7.57.5--14.4%14.4\% of it, and the simultaneous interval for the best of eleven tested policies has lower limit zero throughout. The realizable share of oracle opportunity is small and certifiable: strong routers beat the best fixed model, and most of the gap remains.
Aug 4, 2026cs.AI

Reachability Is Not Realization: Tracing the Sources of LLM Benchmark Gains

Benchmark gains are often treated as evidence of greater LLM capability. Yet the same gain can reflect different changes in model behavior. A model may reach new answers, or produce answers that were already within reach. Aggregate scores do not distinguish these changes question by question. We establish a question-level audit under fixed budgets, temperatures, and answer formats. A question is realized when the default deployment procedure produces the correct answer. A question is reachable when a specified probe finds that answer within a fixed budget. We first test whether inference-time layer routing can expand reachability. Under a matched budget, random routes match or exceed structured search in all 43 model and task settings. Answer-blind procedures retain almost none of this gain, which instead requires access to the correct answer. We then ask why reachable answers sometimes fail to appear. Across six cases spanning 0.5B to 31B, silencing one identified MLP block repairs 68 to 92 percent of a predefined failure set. We next test whether training closes the gap by expanding reachability. In five of six matched evaluations, deployed performance rises while the reachable ceiling remains flat or falls. For DAPO, the deployed score rises by 14.7 points while the reachable ceiling falls by 13.3 points. Across the settings we audit, realization and reachability therefore do not always change together. Claims of capability expansion should report both realized performance and reachability under matched evaluation conditions. Code is available at https://github.com/LiZaiyuan0619/reachability-not-realization
Jul 31, 2026cs.LG

When Does On-Policy Interaction Help? Representational Tradeoffs in Value-Based Imitation Learning

Imitation learning (IL)---training an agent to replicate expert behavior from demonstrations---underpins applications from robotics to language model training. Standard approaches such as Behavior Cloning (BC) are known to suffer from compounding errors and performance plateaus, particularly when the learner cannot perfectly represent the expert's policy (as is typical, e.g., in distillation). Two interventions are widely understood empirically to improve performance: querying the expert interactively along the learner's own trajectories, and using value function estimation en route to generating a policy rather than directly fitting the expert's full action distribution. We investigate the nature of these improvements and their potentially surprising interplay. Our main finding is that expert interaction relaxes the representational demands on the learner: one only needs a model capable of realizing the expert's value function, bypassing the (often stricter) requirement of realizing the expert's policy itself. Concretely, we introduce OVI, an interactive on-policy IL algorithm that is statistically efficient whenever the learner can represent the expert's value function and computationally efficient given access to a linear maximization oracle. We complement this with a negative result showing that interaction is necessary. Namely, without stronger assumptions beyond expert-value realizability alone, any offline IL algorithm must scale with the complexity of the expert policy class. Our findings bear out empirically. OVI outperforms offline policy-based (BC), interactive policy-based (DAgger), and offline value-based IL methods, with the largest gains when the learner network is substantially less expressive than the expert's.
Jul 28, 2026cs.CL

Where Steering Signals Come From: Activation Source Selection in Activation Steering

Activation steering controls language models by adding vectors or features to hidden states at inference time, but the upstream source of these steering signals is often treated as a secondary detail. We study this source choice as activation source selection: the combination of source context and activation readout policy used to collect the hidden states from which a steering signal is built. Holding the downstream intervention fixed, we show across three instruction-tuned models and four steering task families that changing only the source activations substantially changes steering success. We further find that effective steering is not explained simply by whether the desired behavior appears in the source text. Instead, strong signals come from execution-boundary states, where the model is about to produce or continue the target behavior. This pre-/post-realization distinction explains why answer-based sources sometimes work: their useful component aligns with execution-boundary directions rather than target appearance alone. Building on this view, we introduce tail subtraction, which removes shared prompt and continuation semantics from boundary states and yields cleaner, more stable steering signals. Overall, our results suggest that steering depends on representations of what the model is about to do, not merely on what has already appeared.
Jun 30, 2026cs.AI

Design and Implementation of Agentic Orchestrations and Orchestration of Agents

Agentic Business Process Management has gained momentum recently. The prospect is that the autonomy of AI agents, i.e., predominantly LLM-based agents, can be balanced with a certain level of robustness, tractability, and traceability through a combination with process technology. In this paper, we provide a classification framework for agentic orchestration options along properties such as task specificity, traceability and tractability, autonomy and reactivity, and correctness assurance and present qualitative decision criteria for realizations of different scenarios. We also provide metrics for the quantitative assessment of realization properties and show them through different agentic implementations of a predictive light sensing scenario. Altogether, this work aims at providing properties, criteria, and metrics for the design and implementation of agentic orchestrations and orchestration of agents.
Jun 29, 2026cs.FL

Destination-Labeled Self-Looping Systems with Dwell: Intrinsic Characterization, Realization Cost, and Recognition

We study a finite-state symbolic controller for systems in which the admissible visible transitions are fixed in advance and each visible state carries a minimum dwell requirement. The resulting model, which we call a destination-labeled self-looping system with dwell (DLSL system), records the visible graph together with local decision maps; dwell memory appears only after phase expansion. The main structural issue is that, once dwell is imposed, the current visible state no longer determines whether a departure is allowed. This leads to the converse problem: which deterministic transducers arise as phase-expanded realizations of DLSL systems over a fixed visible graph? We show that the answer is exactly the class of fiber-linear graph-respecting transducers. Under natural reachability and realizable-departure assumptions, equivalent accessible realizations over the same visible graph are isomorphic; in particular, the visible transduction determines the dwell vector and the local decision maps. We also prove that any graph-preserving deterministic realization enforcing dwell values (di)(d_i) requires exactly ∑idi\sum_i d_i control states. Finally, we give an O(∣Q∣∣Ω∣)O(|Q||Ω|) recognition and reconstruction procedure, and extend the analysis to an edge-entry variant in which transitions may enter interior phases of successor fibers.
Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

When Does Online Imitation Learning Help in LLM Post-Training? The Role of (Non-)Realizability Beyond Horizon

Online imitation learning (IL), particularly on-policy distillation, has emerged as a strong LLM post-training approach, often outperforming offline supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Yet a principled understanding of when and why online interaction helps remains unclear. In this work, we challenge the view that error accumulation is the main source of online IL's advantage, and instead show that the benefits of online interaction depend critically on whether the setting is realizable, i.e., whether the student policy class can represent the expert policy. Under realizability, we empirically find that offline IL already matches expert performance. In contrast, in non-realizable (misspecified) settings, we prove that offline IL encounters an information-theoretic bottleneck even when horizon H=1H=1, and propose a structural characterization of misspecification relative to the reward, under which online IL provably achieves high performance despite a large distributional mismatch between the expert and student policies.
Jun 15, 2026cs.LG

Verified Detection and Prevention of Concurrency Anomalies in Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems

Multi-agent LLM systems share state through memory stores, vector indices, and tool registries. We model such sharing as long-running read-generate-write operations under deterministic-generation semantics -- the regime durable-execution engines enforce by deterministic replay -- and formalize four concurrency anomalies in TLA+: stale-generation, phantom-tool, causal-cascade, and tool-effect reordering, structural analogues of classical isolation anomalies, each with a TLC counter-example. The exclusion lattice over these anomalies is trivial; the contribution is the mechanically verified realizability and strict separation of one maximal chain within it, L0⊊⋯⊊L4L_0 \subsetneq \cdots \subsetneq L_4, to our knowledge the first machine-checked consistency hierarchy for such runtimes. A development of 274 Verus obligations (zero assume, zero admit; trust base: two structural axioms and a mutex correspondence) proves the detectors sound and complete against the specifications and each runtime its avoidance set. Three deployed Rust runtimes realize L0-L1 (pessimistic locking, serializable snapshot isolation, default-SI), each verified against stale-generation and refined to its state machine; L2-L4 are exec-mode-verified with dependency-free prevention twins (A3, A6, A2: 0/1000 versus 1000/1000), and L2 is run live across three model families (A3 prevented in all 120 retracted sessions). We reproduce a silent lost update in ByteDance's deer-flow, formalizing its fix as a verified L0→L1L_0 \to L_1 refinement, and exhibit tool-effect reordering in LangGraph's ToolNode on unmodified output, removed by an L3 commit-order sequencer. The verified detector, refinements, and realizability artifacts are the contribution; the phenomena and lattice are classical.
Jun 11, 2026cs.LG

Order Is Not Control: Driven-Dissipative Response Laws Across Artificial and Biological Systems

AI alignment, interpretability, steering, and neural perturbation studies identify order-inducing objects. We argue that order is not control. Control requires a receiver-gated response law: a denominator-indexed operator mapping material state, action/drive, bath, and receiver state to response displacement, sinks, effort, and basin projection. We identify it across biological, LLM, adapter, and stochastic-operator panels. The laws are local: an intervention can be admitted, saturated, sign-changing, leaky, or overdriven depending on medium, bath, receiver state, action port, and comparator. Control is assigned when finite effort moves a target or outcome-readout class under the same denominator while damage, null/evasive, invalid format, overdrive, and unnecessary effort stay bounded. Mouse ALM, C. elegans, and zebrafish panels provide physical response-operator evidence while excluding coordinate identity and controller conclusions. LLM panels show generated-output response laws: across four material conditions, response vectors are predictable at 72.8-73.7% component-sign accuracy, rising to 84.3-84.8% on nonzero components; held-out observers predict system-effect and target/oracle families at 93.6% and 91.7% accuracy. Constitution-conditioned adapters reshape susceptibility as prepared media, and stochastic-operator panels separate measured opportunity from deployable action policies. This gives a driven-dissipative response-system account at the mesoscopic control level: drives act through prepared media, baths, and receivers, producing admitted movement, impedance, sinks, or overdrive. The evidence supports local admitted control and measurable stochastic response operators, while leaving deployable pre-generation control, hidden/logit causal sufficiency, biological-to-LLM coordinate identity, and literal thermodynamic quantities outside scope.
Jun 9, 2026cs.AI

ComBench: A Benchmark for Rigorous Proof Reasoning and Constructive Realization in Olympiad-Level Combinatorics

Combinatorics is central to Olympiad-level mathematical problem solving, requiring deep discrete reasoning, creative constructions, and rigorous structural insight. Recent evidence suggests that even today's strongest frontier models remain uneven on Olympiad combinatorics, revealing a gap in creative mathematical reasoning. We introduce ComBench, an Olympiad-level combinatorics benchmark for evaluating and diagnosing the combinatorial reasoning capabilities of large language models. ComBench contains 100 human-annotated competition-level problems organized around two complementary settings: analysis-centric problems, which primarily require rigorous mathematical arguments, and construction-centric problems, which require explicit constructions in addition to correctness justifications. The evaluation protocol combines rubric-guided proof grading with deterministic construction verification, exposing cases where proof quality and construction validity diverge. Experiments on frontier open- and closed-source models show that ComBench is far from saturated: the strongest model reaches 65.4% overall Avg. and 75.3% overall Best@4. We further find that Rigorous Proof Reasoning and Constructive Realization are distinct capabilities: Kimi-K2.6 trails GPT-5.5 on analysis-centric proof grading but surpasses it on construction-centric Best@4, while Existence and Construction problems remain consistently hardest across representative frontier models.
May 26, 2026cs.CR

Cordon-MAS: Defending RAG against Knowledge Poisoning via Information-Flow Control

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) increasingly underpins high-stakes applications, yet remains vulnerable to Confundo-style poisoning where adversarially optimized documents manipulate generated outputs. Existing defenses assume that detecting poisoned evidence prevents harm. We show this assumption is incorrect: models exhibit a monitoring-control gap -- they can detect contradictions in retrieved evidence yet still act on poisoned claims. We introduce the Cordon Principle -- no agent capable of final synthesis may access untrusted natural-language evidence -- and realize it through CORDON-MAS, a compartmentalized framework that enforces this principle architecturally by separating evidence extraction, cross-source audit, and answer synthesis into agents with asymmetric memory privileges. Across five BEIR datasets, CORDON-MAS reduces attack success rate by 92.4% relative to undefended RAG. This reframes RAG poisoning from a detection problem to an information-flow control problem.
May 25, 2026stat.ML

PAC Learning with Bandit Feedback: Sharp Sample Complexity in the Realizable Setting

We study the problem of multiclass PAC learning with bandit feedback in the realizable setting. In this framework, there is an unknown data distribution over an instance space X\mathcal{X} and a label space Y\mathcal{Y}, as in classical multiclass PAC learning, but the learner does not observe the labels of the i.i.d. training examples. Instead, in each round, it receives an unlabeled instance, predicts its label, and receives bandit feedback indicating only whether the prediction is correct. Despite this restriction, the goal remains the same as in classical PAC learning. We provide a general characterization of the optimal sample complexity of this problem, sharp for every concept class up to logarithmic factors. Our characterization is based on a new combinatorial dimension, termed the bandit DS\mathrm{DS} dimension, defined via generalized combinatorial structures we call pseudo-boxes. These extend the pseudo-cubes underlying the DS\mathrm{DS} dimension by allowing a different number of neighbors in each coordinate. In contrast to the DS\mathrm{DS} dimension, which governs the full-information setting by counting the number of coordinates in the pseudo-cube, the bandit DS\mathrm{DS} dimension aggregates the number of neighbors across coordinates, leading to a characterization in which the sample complexity scales with the total number of neighbors. We also propose a general learning algorithm achieving the upper bound, based on an algorithmic principle called ListCascade, which connects bandit learning to list learning and may be of independent interest.
May 24, 2026cs.AI

Representation Without Control: Testing the Realization Effect in Language Models

Large language models are increasingly used as behavioral simulators, but it remains unclear when their outputs reflect human-like cognitive mechanisms rather than prompt-sensitive surface patterns. We study this question through the realization effect, a well-characterized finding in behavioral economics in which risk-taking differs systematically after paper versus realized gains and losses. We evaluate LLM behavior at three levels: prompt-only behavioral sensitivity, linear readout of internal representations, and causal control via activation steering. Prompt-only results show systematic condition sensitivity, but the directional pattern does not reproduce human realization-effect predictions. Gemma's residual stream contains a linearly decodable realization-status signal at layer 18 that generalizes to held-out prompts. Steering along this direction does not, however, reliably shift downstream risk choices, a null result that holds across positive scales and in a negative sign-symmetry run. Behavioral sensitivity, latent readout, and causal control are three distinct properties that do not automatically co-occur, and successful latent readout is insufficient evidence that a model behaviorally relies on a representation during downstream decision-making.
May 23, 2026cs.LG

On the Stability and Realizability of Recurrent Polynomial Surrogate Ternary Logic Gate Networks

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) can learn to predict Signal Temporal Logic (STL) verdicts online from partial trajectories, but deploying them as runtime monitors in safety-critical systems demands more than predictive accuracy. Standard RNN architectures offer no structural guarantee that outputs degrade gracefully under sensor degradation; a dropped input can silently flip a verdict from safe to unsafe. We introduce the Recurrent Differentiable Ternary Logic Gate Network (R-DTLGN), a recurrent architecture that operates over Kleene's three-valued logic {−1,0,+1}\{-1, 0, +1\}, where 00 explicitly represents unknown. The R-DTLGN trains through continuous polynomial surrogates and hardens to a discrete ternary logic circuit at inference. We analyze the hardened circuit through two gate vocabularies derived from two orderings on the ternary domain: numerically monotone gates ensure stable recurrent dynamics, while information-monotone gates, when present, guarantee principled abstention (unknown inputs never produce wrong outputs) and monotonicity in input certainty (more information can only improve the verdict). We show that the recurrent connections required by bounded STL operators use exclusively AND and OR, which belong to both vocabularies, linking the monitoring task to the architecture's guarantees. A realizability bound derived from the STL formula's temporal operators directly sizes the network's hidden state, replacing hyperparameter search with a formula-driven specification. We evaluate on STL specifications over D4RL PointMaze navigation data, testing prediction accuracy, degradation under predicate dropout, and the accuracy-versus-safety tradeoff between two label construction pipelines. The R-DTLGN is, to our knowledge, the first recurrent architecture that couples learned temporal prediction with formal degradation guarantees rooted in three-valued logic.
May 18, 2026cond-mat.mes-hall

Qumus: Realization of An Embodied AI Quantum Material Experimentalist

While modern Large Language Models (LLMs) and agentic artificial intelligence (AI) have demonstrated transformative capabilities in digital domains, the realization of embodied AI capable of real-world scientific discovery remains a difficult frontier. The advancements are hindered by the inherent complexity of integrating high-level reasoning, multimodal information processing and real-time physical execution. Here we introduce Qumus, the first AI quantum materials experimentalist. Physically embodied within a robotic mini-laboratory, Qumus is an intelligent, multimodal, and multi-agent system designed for the creation and nano-processing of atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) materials and stacked van der Waals (vdW) structures. Qumus autonomously navigates the full scientific cycle, from hypothesis generation and protocol planning to multi-step experimental execution, result analysis and reporting, acting as an experimentalist. Markedly, the system has achieved, for the first time, the AI-creation of graphene, as well as the first AI-fabrication of complex nanodevices including atomically thin field-effect transistors via vdW stacking. Qumus excels at these tasks by demonstrating autonomous error correction and closed-loop experimentation. Our results establish a generalizable framework for self-improving embodied AI systems that learn directly from the quantum world, opening a pathway toward accelerated discovery in quantum materials, electronics and beyond.
May 1, 2026cs.AI

To Use AI as Dice of Possibilities with Timing Computation

The dominant noun-based modeling paradigm, grounded in probability theory and committed to pre-specified noun entities as primitive modeling units, is insufficient as a \emph{grammar of thought}: It leaves \emph{timing} outside the computational scope, precluding any adequate representation of the future as an open space of possibilities. This paper addresses three conceptual gaps absent from the existing literature: (1) possibility space -- a framework admitting multiple possible timelines for the same event; (2) timing computation -- the treatment of timing as a computable rather than observed dimension; and (3) causal factum -- the maximal causal efficacy recovered by reasoning backward from possible futures, rather than assumed in advance. Together, these definitions dissolve the confounding problem inherent to noun-based causal inference and provide the foundation for a spontaneously growing causal-reasoning world model. As proof of concept, we instantiate the framework and apply it to longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients, demonstrating for the first time, to our knowledge, automatic trajectory discovery and counterfactual timing deduction (i.e., a What-If Machine) in a purely data-driven manner.
Apr 18, 2026cs.CL

Retention Consequence in Lifecycle Memory Control

Persistent memory can fail after successful admission: a premise is written, then becomes a silent assumption, and later maintenance treats it as ordinary residue to be compressed, demoted, or evicted. We study this post-admission failure as a lifecycle-control problem. Existing memory systems already perform admission, update, compression, retrieval, and eviction. Our claim is not that such systems lack maintenance, but that retention consequence is often operationalized only indirectly through validity, similarity, recency, frequency, importance, or summarization signals rather than exposed as a separate lifecycle state. We therefore treat confidence as carried-forward validity/support evidence, and introduce strength as an explicit lifecycle state for retention consequence. We operationalize this distinction in StageMem, a small staged controller whose transient, working, and durable stores expose promotion, compression, and eviction pressure points. Across controlled premise-realization, compression, pressure, and implicit-heuristic diagnostics, the experiments separate writing too little, retaining the wrong high-cue content, forgetting costly premises, and preserving everything by saturation. Explicit retention consequence, used through lifecycle settlement, provides a control surface between omission and hoarding. For the targeted post-admission failure mode, the results support a lifecycle view of persistent memory: reliability depends not only on what enters memory, but on whether admission validity and retention consequence remain available during maintenance.
Apr 16, 2026cs.AI

The Possibility of Artificial Intelligence Becoming a Subject and the Alignment Problem

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is increasingly being discussed not only as a tool, but also as a potential subject with personal and therefore moral status. In our opinion, the currently dominant alignment strategies, which focus on human control and containment of AI, therefore fall short. Building on Turing's analogy of "child machines", we are developing a vision of the possibility of autonomy-supporting parenting of AI, in which human control over a developing AGI is gradually reduced, allowing AI to become an independent, autonomous subject. Rather than viewing AGI, as is currently prevalent, as a dangerous creature that needs to be locked up and controlled, we should approach potential AGI with respect for a possible developing subject on the one hand, and with full confidence in our human capabilities on the other. Such a perspective opens up the possibility of cooperative coexistence and co-evolution between humans and AGIs. The relationship between humans and AGIs will thus have to be newly determined, which will change our self-image as humans. It will be crucial that humans not only claim control over potential AGIs, but also engage with AGIs through surprise, creativity, and other specifically human qualities, thereby offering them motivating incentives for cooperation.
Oct 3, 2025cs.AI

A Concept of Possibility for Real-World Events

This paper offers a new concept of {\it possibility} as an alternative to the now-a-days standard concept originally introduced by L.A. Zadeh in 1978. This new version was inspired by the original but, formally, has nothing in common with it other than that they both adopt the Łukasiewicz multivalent interpretation of the logical connectives. Moreover, rather than seeking to provide a general notion of possibility, this focuses specifically on the possibility of a real-world event. An event is viewed as having prerequisites that enable its occurrence and constraints that may impede its occurrence, and the possibility of the event is computed as a function of the probabilities that the prerequisites hold and the constraints do not. This version of possibility might appropriately be applied to problems of planning. When there are multiple plans available for achieving a goal, this theory can be used to determine which plan is most possible, i.e., easiest or most feasible to complete. It is speculated that this model of reasoning correctly captures normal human reasoning about plans. The theory is elaborated and an illustrative example for vehicle route planning is provided. There is also a suggestion of potential future applications.
Jul 15, 2025stat.ML

LLMs are Bayesian, In Expectation, Not in Realization

Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently. We show this objection targets a structural invariant rather than the quantity scoring online prediction. For any Bayesian reference, excess prequential code length is exactly cumulative predictive KL. For unordered support sets that must be serialized, the expected regret of a single admissible ordering decomposes into that of the order-averaged predictor plus an order-averaging gain. Exchangeability violations are therefore not binary refutations; they are priced by log loss. We instantiate the theory with KT/Dirichlet finite-alphabet prediction and coarsened Bayesian linear-regression (BLR) predictive distributions. On Qwen2.5-7B/14B, floored candidate distributions at support 256256 have one-step excess code lengths of 0.020/0.0110.020/0.011 bits for Bernoulli and 0.039/0.0220.039/0.022 bits for four-way categorical prediction, with candidate mass above 0.9990.999; coarsened BLR continuations increasingly match the posterior-predictive digit distribution as support grows. A frequentist plug-in baseline sharpens the reading: the predictive distributions sit closer to the Bayesian posterior predictive than to the maximum-likelihood plug-in, by a margin largest at small support, where the plug-in is degenerate, and vanishing as the references converge. Position interventions and a from-scratch ablation localize order sensitivity to the positional encoding, activation patching tests causal use of decoded sufficient statistics, and permutation mixtures quantify the downstream log-loss cost of arbitrary orderings. Transformers need not realize exchangeable posterior predictives for every serialization to be Bayes-competitive prequential predictors.