Predictive Coding

Local learning methods offer an alternative to end-to-end backpropagation, but their unstructured local objectives can produce weak feature learning in deep networks. We study whether the order of hidden-state optimization can address this limitation. We propose a boundary-first inference schedule that partitions a model into chunks, first coordinates hidden states at chunk boundaries, and then refines representations within each chunk. We instantiate this schedule in predictive coding networks (PCNs), a local-learning framework in which hidden activities and prediction errors are explicitly exposed during inference. On CIFAR-10, the resulting boundary-first predictive-coding instantiation improves accuracy over standard predictive coding by $9.77\%$ under a standard parametrization and by $5.51\%$ under a $μ$-parametrization. Diagnostic analyses further show more non-trivial early-layer updates, lower initial-to-final CKA, and more diverse layerwise gradients, consistent with stronger feature learning. These results support boundary-first, chunk-based inference as a practical design principle for predictive-coding training and motivate its study in broader local-learning systems.

PAC-Bayes theory provides generalization guarantees by controlling the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between posterior and prior distributions over a chosen hypothesis representation. However, predictive risk depends only on the predictive behavior induced by a hypothesis, not on the particular internal realization that implements that behavior. In over-parameterized systems, many distinct configurations induce identical predictive behavior, yet the classical PAC-Bayes KL divergence does not distinguish uncertainty over predictive behavior from variation among behaviorally equivalent realizations. We show that this distinction induces an exact structural decomposition of classical PAC-Bayes complexity. We formalize behavioral equivalence through a measurable behavior map and use measure disintegration to decompose probability measures on the configuration space into a distribution over predictive behaviors and conditional distributions over behavioral fibers. This yields an exact decomposition of the classical PAC-Bayes KL divergence into a behavior-selection term and a realization-level term given by an expected conditional KL within fibers. We define Z-information as the negative of this realization-level contribution: the exact gap between the KL divergence and the complexity of uncertainty over predictive behavior alone. We further show that the behavior-selection term admits an exact variational characterization: it is the minimum KL divergence among all posteriors inducing the same distribution over predictive behaviors, attained by a canonical fiber-symmetrized representative. Finally, we show that symmetry, behavior-preserving directions, fiber geometry, and invariance under fiber-preserving perturbations arise naturally from the same behavior-map structure. Together, these results identify predictive behavior as the natural object of PAC-Bayes complexity.

We propose IM-LEPP (Integrated Multimodal Latent Energy-based Predictive Processing), a hierarchical, energy-based model of multimodal cognition that extends a previously proposed single-modality model (LEPP) to integrate vision and language. Following the view that generative neural networks are effective theories of cognitive dynamics, analogous to how statistical mechanics relates to thermodynamics, IM-LEPP models cognition as latent states flowing through learned energy landscapes rather than as an account of neural circuitry. The architecture is a hub-and-spoke hierarchy, grounded in the controlled semantic cognition framework of Lambon Ralph et al., in which predictive-coding pipelines for visual objects, scenes, and linguistic units converge on a shared amodal hub modeled on the anterior temporal lobe. Each pipeline's own prediction is conditioned by, rather than overwritten by, the current hub state, preserving pipeline-specific identity while letting every prediction reflect the full multimodal context. We show this architecture gives a mechanistic account of attentional phenomena such as inattentional blindness and Necker-cube bistability, and that its structure recovers or motivates independently established findings in psycholinguistics, including surprisal theory, the N400/P600 ERP components, and garden-path reanalysis, alongside a falsifiable contrast with transformer language models on trajectory-sensitivity in next-word prediction. We also discuss data-efficient language acquisition relative to LLMs, outline a semantic/episodic memory subsystem, situate the model against predictive coding, the free-energy principle, JEPA, and Hierarchical Temporal Memory, and propose concrete experimental predictions to test its central claims Key Words: predictive processing; predictive coding; energy-based models; diffusion models; effective theory; computational neuroscience.

We study the topology of learned representations in predictive coding networks (PCNs), a neuro-inspired bidirectional architecture, using a quantitative layer-wise persistent homology analysis. We train well-performing PCNs on a synthetic classification dataset ($\geq 99.9\%$ test accuracy) and on MNIST ($\geq 95\%$ test accuracy), and measure how topological features change across layers for different architectures and activation functions. We find that smaller PCNs collapse connected components across layers earlier than larger models (Spearman $\unicode{x1D70C} \in [0.72, 0.79]$ across activations), with model size measured as the sum of hidden-layer widths. We also observe a strong negative correlation ($\unicode{x1D70C} = -0.58$) between the depth at which simplification occurs and reconstruction error; i.e., architectures that simplify later reconstruct better. Finally, a seed-level bootstrap comparison across architectures and activations shows that PCNs consistently collapse connected components later than matched MLPs, with an average difference of $3.6$ layers. These results suggest that persistent homology offers a useful quantitative lens on the compression--reconstruction tradeoff in PCNs, and that both model capacity and the recurrent, bidirectional dynamics of predictive coding inference shape when this tradeoff is resolved across layers.

Predictive processing theories portray the brain as a hierarchical prediction engine that minimizes prediction error, yet they lack operational definitions for the structure of a "prediction," the standardized response to a prediction error, and the mechanism that maintains consistency across successive updates. Bayesian cognitive science attempts to subsume all uncertainty under probabilistic belief updating, but it presupposes a closed hypothesis space and provides no generative account of how the objects over which probabilities are distributed become discrete, identifiable referents in the first place. This paper introduces Predictive Set Theory (PST), a formal generative framework that reconstructs cognitive architecture from first principles. PST anchors cognition in a minimal set of operations---a sensor formalized as an identity function, set-theoretic state refresh, and three fundamental forms of reference chains (reference, counter-reference, and semi-reference)---and rigorously derives core cognitive functions including state sequences, demand, comparison, efficiency, and finite-horizon probabilistic planning. Rather than modeling neural mechanisms, PST constitutes a design specification for any system that must maintain internal consistency while acting under incomplete information and irreversible risk. The framework offers novel resolutions to classical problems such as Russell's paradox, the cognitive status of Gödelian incompleteness, the grounding of negative feedback, and the comprehension of film editing. The primary purpose of this paper is to establish, through the public academic record, the originality and completeness of the Predictive Set Theory framework.

Predictive coding offers a powerful framework for cortical computation, yet scalable implementations that respect both Bayesian exactness and neurobiological constraints remain scarce. We bridge this gap by formally connecting predictive coding to Recursive Gaussian Processes (RGPs). RGPs employ a single Gaussian process $g(t, \cdot)$ indexed by layer index and input value, preventing the representational collapse of standard deep Gaussian processes while allowing learnable cross-layer dependence via $r_{1g}$. We demonstrate that RGPs intrinsically implement hierarchical Bayesian inference, uncertainty propagation, and precision-weighted prediction error. Critically, we map RGP components---the shared GP, spike-and-slab variable selection, and MCMC dynamics---onto the canonical cortical microcircuit, providing a neurobiological substrate for these computations. Drawing on the free energy principle, we show that RGP inference minimizes variational free energy, formally linking Bayesian mechanics to neuronal dynamics. Our synthesis positions RGPs as both a principled computational tool and a candidate model for the brain's predictive machinery, generating testable predictions for laminar-specific dynamics and spectral asymmetries between feedforward and feedback processing.

Predictive coding offers a powerful theory of cortical computation, but corresponding scalable algorithmic implementations for artificial intelligence have remained elusive. This paper introduces the Bayesian reflex, a computational framework that directly instantiates predictive coding through three pillars: belief maintenance via hierarchical generative models, sequential Bayesian updating via prediction-error minimization, and uncertainty-driven action via active inference. We show that recent breakthroughs---ellipsoidal decomposition for exact $i.i.d.$ sampling, recursive Gaussian processes for deep hierarchical inference, and derivative-aware Bayesian optimization---provide the missing algorithmic ingredients. The resulting framework enables mathematically principled, scalable, and brain-inspired continual learning, perception, and decision-making. We illustrate its versatility through applications ranging from climate model evaluation to prime number discovery, offering a blueprint for truly adaptive artificial intelligence.

Photonic reservoir computing has attracted increasing attention as a fast and low-cost approach for time-series prediction. Photonic reservoir computing utilizes the high speed, broad bandwidth, and spatial parallelism of light. However, the effect of the internal connection structure (network topology) on the computing performance has not been investigated for large-scale photonic reservoirs. In this study, we experimentally and numerically demonstrate photonic reservoir computing using a spatial light modulator to systematically evaluate the relationship between the network topology and the performance of reservoir computing. We introduce complex network structures such as small-world and scale-free network topologies of the internal nodes in the reservoir. We perform the memory capacity measurement and the one-step-ahead prediction task of the chaotic time series to compare the performance. We found that the small-world network exhibits the maximum memory capacity and the best prediction performance. Our numerical calculations reveal that the performance of the time-series prediction can be optimized by changing the rewiring probability of the network and the leak rate of the reservoir. We also implement photonic human brain network as a reservoir, which is designed by the connectomes of human brain activities. We found that the network topology strongly affects the performance of reservoir computing, and the small-world network structure outperforms the other configurations.

In multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), inter-agent communication is effective for improving performance under partial observability. Representation learning-based approaches enable decentralized agents to learn messages grounded in their own observations, but they rely only on current observations and cannot convey information accumulated over time. We propose Dreamer-CPC, a decentralized model-based MARL method that integrates message learning based on Collective Predictive Coding (CPC) into the world model of DreamerV3. Each agent independently maintains a world model and a message module, and infers and exchanges messages from the latent states of the world model that reflect the history of past observations and actions. We evaluated Dreamer-CPC in two environments: Observer, a non-cooperative information-sharing task, and CatchApple, a newly introduced task in which task-relevant observations are temporarily missing. In both environments, Dreamer-CPC outperformed IPPO-CPC, an existing CPC-based method that generates messages from current observations, as well as no-communication baselines. In particular, in CatchApple, Dreamer-CPC achieved 4 to 5 times the episode return of IPPO-CPC, demonstrating effective coordination where other methods fail due to missing observations. These results suggest that communication grounded in the latent dynamics of world models can support decentralized decision-making when current observations alone are insufficient.

Predictive Coding (PC) offers a biologically motivated alternative to backpropagation via local weight updates, yet routing error between layers still relies on an autograd Jacobian-transpose ($J^\top$) product - the last non-local operation in PC. We show that this dependency is largely avoidable. For any layer $f(x)=\mathrm{Act}(\mathrm{Norm}(L(x)))$ with frozen normalization statistics, the exact $J^\top$ factors into three locally available terms, $J^\top v = L^\top(s \odot σ'(z) \odot v)$, where $σ'$ is the activation derivative, $z$ is the pre-activation, and $s=γ/σ_{\mathrm{run}}$ is the normalization gain. Prior weight-feedback methods omitted both corrections; restoring them closes the transport gap for this layer class. Locality here holds up to three assumptions, which we state upfront: weight symmetry ($L^\top$ mirrors the forward operator, as assumed by all PC), a soft spectral-norm control that is not synapse-local, and a nearest-neighbour approximation for MaxPool. Substituting the identity into PC yields WF-Act-PC, which removes the autograd backward pass from error transport. On CIFAR-10/100 (50 epochs, 5 seeds), WF-Act-PC is the only PC method whose accuracy improves with depth, surpassing iPC - the strongest classical PC baseline - by 2.7-22.3 pp on CIFAR-10. With both methods tuned per architecture, it matches or exceeds a comparably-tuned backpropagation baseline on the deeper CIFAR-10 architectures (VGG-9: 93.57% vs. 92.43%; ResNet-18: 92.76% vs. 91.54%) and on the harder Tiny-ImageNet benchmark, while trailing tuned BP on the deeper CIFAR-100 VGG cells. Our WF-Act-PC implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/jlshen025/pcax

Under the free energy principle, a predictive system does not observe reality directly; it maintains a generative model of the world and experiences that model's best current hypothesis. Can a synthetic environment be made consistent enough that a predictive system's own inference machinery adopts it as this default hypothesis, permanently displacing the environment that first shaped it? We call this state ontological inversion. Because inducing and monitoring such a transition in a nervous system is neither ethical nor technically feasible, we study the underlying computational problem through a controlled proxy: a convolutional variational autoencoder paired with a recurrent latent predictor, whose evidence lower bound objective is mathematically identical, up to sign, to variational free energy itself. The network is trained first on a baseline visual domain, then on a mixed stream in which a swept rehearsal ratio r controls how much baseline content persists during transition to a target domain. Representational capacity, what the latent space can discriminate, is tracked separately from default behavior, what the system generates when left unconstrained. Across a full sweep of 90 runs, the two diverge sharply: representational accuracy stays near ceiling, 0.97 to 0.998, regardless of r, while default behavior spans nearly the system's entire range depending on r alone, a decoupling of learning from acceptance. More strikingly, at intermediate r the system's default output rises toward the target domain, then partially reverts toward the baseline while training continues unchanged, a structural failure we term cognitive relapse. Resistance to reality-adoption is not reducible to learning speed; it is a structural property with its own distinct failure modes, established here as a computational existence proof and nothing further.

Accurate and timely channel state information (CSI) is essential for next-generation wireless systems, yet existing works treat CSI compression and CSI prediction as separate problems, both in academia and in current 3GPP studies. Consequently, channel aging remains insufficiently addressed within standardized CSI feedback pipelines. In this article, we propose a unified compression-prediction framework that integrates Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) directly into the 3GPP-compliant CSI compression architecture. Instead of predicting high-dimensional CSI matrices, our approach forecasts future latent representations and jointly optimizes reconstruction fidelity and temporal predictive coherence via a combined 1-SGCS and InfoNCE objective. This design enables temporal representation learning without increasing feedback overhead. We present two variants: CPC-before-Compression, which performs autoregressive modeling on encoded features prior to quantization, and CPC-after-Compression, which shifts temporal modeling to the base-station to reduce the complexity of users' devices. Evaluations on 3GPP-compliant datasets from Nokia, Oppo, and CATT show that CPC-before-Compression achieves over 90% reconstruction accuracy with 32x lower decoder GFLOPs than the 3GPP baseline, while CPC-after-Compression preserves an identical encoder footprint and the same 64-bit feedback overhead. By unifying compression and prediction within a standardized pipeline, the proposed framework provides an age-aware, computationally efficient CSI feedback solution. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/AhmedRadwan02/cpc-3gpp

Hierarchical predictive coding provides an interpretable framework for perception as error-driven inference in multi-layer generative models, while sparse coding imposes parsimonious latent representations through explicit sparsity constraints. Their combination yields hierarchical sparse predictive coding models with appealing computational and neuroscientific properties, but practical use is often limited by the cost of iterative latent inference. In such models, each input may require many recurrent refinement steps before a useful sparse representation is obtained, and this burden becomes more severe as the hierarchy deepens. We study this bottleneck by holding the hierarchical sparse energy fixed and varying the inference procedure. The comparison includes four schemes: classical iterative inference based on ISTA, an accelerated MFISTA reference, structurally informed amortized inference using a LISTA-style bottom-up encoder adapted to the hierarchical model, and a hybrid method in which this fast amortized initialization is followed by a small number of corrective energy-based refinement steps. Under this shared objective, we measure reconstruction quality, sparsity, latency, and stability on static image benchmarks. The results show that a shallow LISTA-style initializer plus short corrective recurrence improves over pure amortization while remaining much faster than long iterative inference.

Predictive coding networks (PCNs) offer a biologically-plausible, local-learning alternative to back-propagation of errors (backprop). Nevertheless, they have remained largely confined to shallow architectures and evaluated on simple machine intelligence benchmarks. A central obstacle to scaling PCNs is that the learning signal decays rapidly as it propagates away from the clamped boundaries, leaving interior layers effectively unchanged. To directly counter this problem, we propose highway error propagation (HEP), a scheme that augments the free energy function underlying predictive coding (PC) by altering its neural structure with feedback matrices $V_{L\to i}$ that couple selected hidden states directly to the clamped output error. Since this coupling is linear in the hidden state, the highway pathway delivers a correction at every inference step whose magnitude is independent of depth, in contrast to vanilla PC where the output error reaches the $i$-th hidden layer with attenuation that decays exponentially in depth. This bypasses the Jacobian chain while preserving the local PC synaptic update rule. On MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, we show that HEP effectively trains MLPs of up to 128 layers with accuracy that is robust with respect to depth.

Associative memory models play a fundamental role in pattern retrieval, but their performance often degrades under adversarial perturbations and severe input corruptions. Existing approaches, including Modern Hopfield Networks (MHNs), and Predictive Coding Networks (PCNs), exhibit limitations in balancing storage capacity, computational efficiency, and robustness. In this paper, we propose a Convolutional Restricted Hopfield Networks (CRHNs), which integrates convolutional feature extraction with attractor-based memory retrieval in a structured latent space. The proposed model leverages subspace representations and fixed-point dynamics, trained via a gradient-free Subspace Rotation Algorithm (SRA), to enhance both robustness and memory capacity. Extensive experiments on Self-Taught Learning (STL) dataset demonstrate that CRHNs consistently achieve significantly lower reconstruction error compared to MHNs and PCNs across a wide range of adversarial attacks and input degradations. In many cases, CRHNs reduce reconstruction error by an order of magnitude and maintains stable retrieval performance under increasing perturbation strength. Statistical analysis further confirms that these improvements are significant ($p < 0.01$). These results highlight the effectiveness of attractor-based memory mechanisms and suggest that CRHNs provide a promising framework for building robust and scalable associative memory systems.

Classical theories of cognition describe problem solving as exploratory search through structured problem spaces in which repeated interaction gradually compresses search into efficient representational structures. Predictive artificial intelligence systems introduce a distinct regime in which stabilization may occur before exploratory diversification unfolds, supplying solutions and decision trajectories prior to internally generated search. This paper develops a geometric dynamical framework in which attention evolves over a landscape of strategies shaped by stabilizing drift, endogenous exploratory perturbation, and responsiveness-gated learning. Predictive assistance is modeled as a process of exogenous exploratory compression that stabilizes trajectories before self-generated exploration broadens the accessible regions of strategy space. The framework yields three main results. First, sustained predictive stabilization reduces exploratory responsiveness by attenuating the effective influence of intrinsic perturbations even when exploratory variability remains present. Second, curvature accumulates and relaxes asymmetrically, producing hysteresis and delayed recovery of exploratory mobility after assistance withdrawal. Third, developmental outcomes depend critically on the timing of stabilization, with early intervention narrowing future exploratory traversal before broad representational diversification has occurred. The framework generates empirically testable predictions concerning exploratory entropy, premature convergence, and delayed recovery following predictive stabilization. More broadly, the results suggest that predictive systems may reshape the geometry of exploratory cognition itself.

We recast predictive coding as continuous-time proximal gradient descent applied to a regularized maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) objective. We study first a single-level problem and then a multi-level hierarchy. For the single-level problem, we show that proximal gradient descent is precisely a leaky firing-rate network: the membrane leak, the effective recurrent matrix, the local synaptic drive, and the static nonlinearity all follow from one optimization principle, and the resulting circuit is the one proposed by Rao and Ballard. The prior selects the nonlinearity through its proximal operator, and the likelihood precision sets the gain on the observation. For the hierarchy, we show that a classical variable-splitting relaxation of the deep MAP problem yields hierarchical predictive coding as the interconnection of local and distributed solvers. In probabilistic modeling terms, this relaxation replaces the directed generative chain by an undirected Markov random field whose node potentials are the level-wise priors. Each level then applies its own activation function, namely the proximal operator of its prior.

How does a system that merely predicts the world come to distinguish its own causal influence from everything else? We trace this transition in a minimal 192-dimensional GRU through 40 controlled experiments arranged as a developmental sequence, adding components one at a time and tracking whether the system can distinguish self-caused from world-caused changes. The developmental path reveals four conditions that must be satisfied in strict order: (1) persistent state forming stable attractors, (2) a causal action loop linking output to input, (3) proprioceptive feedback that makes implicit causal knowledge explicit, and (4) asynchronous awakening - perceptual learning must consolidate before action learning begins. We propose agency gain (A = Err_world - Err_self), the predictive advantage of knowing one's own action, as a metric to track this process. The self-aware predictor consistently outperforms the self-blind predictor across periodic (sinusoidal) and chaotic (Lorenz) environments, and the metric survives ablation of all auxiliary components. Only forward-sampled action selection produces meaningful agency gain; two gradient-based alternatives degenerate. Equally significant are 12 falsified hypotheses mapping where development stalls: predictive coding alone does not produce self-represent

Equilibrium Propagation (EP) is a physics-based training framework that has primarily been employed in energy-based models, including continuous Hopfield networks, nonlinear resistive networks and coupled phase oscillators. However, EP's practical applications have so far remained limited to relatively small-scale problems. Predictive coding networks (PCNs), another class of energy-based models rooted in computational neuroscience, are typically trained with a specialized algorithm and have likewise not yet been demonstrated at large scale. In this work, we develop an EP-based training method for PCNs which combines the centered variant of EP with a novel equilibration scheme for PCNs. Using this approach, we train a 10-layer convolutional PCN (VGG10) on full-size ImageNet, achieving 13.23% test error rate on the top-5 classification task, close to the 12.2% backpropagation baseline. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of both PCNs and EP-based training at ImageNet scale. These results significantly extend the scalability of both approaches and suggest that the primary challenges in scaling EP in other physical systems may come more from the computational properties of these systems than from inherent limitations of the EP framework.

Predictive coding (PC) is a local-learning alternative to backpropagation (BP), training deep networks via local energy-minimization dynamics rather than a global backward pass. We introduce Augmented Lagrangian Predictive Coding (PC-ALM), which maintains PC's inference budget but aligns each weight update toward BP by accumulating per-layer constraint errors into a layer-local Lagrange multiplier. In linear PC networks, PC-ALM converges to an equilibrium with exact BP gradients distributed across the network via only layer-local updates. We analyze PC-ALM in nonlinear PC networks up to depth 128 and show that it matches BP performance across all width-depth regimes, notably in deep narrow networks where PC underperforms. PC-ALM introduces recurrent dynamics in each layer's activations. Compared to PC's heat flow on a scalar energy, PC-ALM dynamics are driven by dual ascent on the augmented Lagrangian. We observe "ballistic" credit propagation across very deep networks, with credit signals evenly distributed across layers, compared to PC's slow, diffusive credit propagation. Beyond the algorithm itself, the augmented Lagrangian framework offers a generalization of PC, and may yield insights into how distributed systems could compute and propagate BP-like credit signals through purely local dynamics.

Active sensing links behavior and learning through an action-perception loop: actions determine the observations used to update internal predictive models of perception, which subsequently guide the next actions. Predictive-coding frameworks provide a natural way to model this process, since internal representations are continuously updated to predict future observations. Here, we ask how exploratory and exploitative behavioral strategies shape these internal predictive representations. We build an online learning agent in a tree-like maze with a controllable parameter regulating the balance between exploratory and exploitative regimes. The agent updates a predictive-coding-based perception model from experience generated by its own behavior. The model predicts both future maze states and reward probability, allowing the agent to select actions either by expected information gain during exploration or by predicted reward during exploitation. We show that the resulting internal predictive representations depend strongly on the agent's behavioral regime. Exploratory agents develop representations that are more spatially organized and better preserve the structure of maze transitions in latent space. In contrast, exploitative agents learn less organized representations. We then train this predictive model on natural trajectories of water-deprived mice navigating the same maze and compare the resulting representations with those learned from agent trajectories. More exploratory mice show representational geometries that closely match those of exploratory agents, whereas mice with more restricted visitation patterns resemble reward-driven, exploitative agents. Together, these findings suggest that exploration enables predictive models to form generalized internal representations by organizing latent space around both spatial location and transition context in artificial agents and animals.

Fragmentation is common in interdisciplinary fields with diverse methods and theoretical commitments. Predictive coding neuroscience is a clear example: its literature spans computational theory, electrophysiology, imaging, behavior, and modeling, creating a synthesis problem that conventional meta-analysis cannot easily resolve. Here, we describe a local multi-LLM pipeline for ontology-constrained literature synthesis. The pipeline reads papers, extracts evidence, incorporates figure descriptions, assembles constrained prompts, and validates outputs against an expert glossary. We manually defined a predictive-coding glossary of thirty-six concepts grouped into three hypotheses: predictive suppression, feedforward error propagation, and ubiquity. A council of ten local language models scored 31 studies according to their agreement or disagreement with each glossary factor across local and global oddball contexts. This enabled pairwise study-agreement analysis, cross-model comparison, and three-dimensional hypothesis-space mapping. Agreement was high for some hypotheses but weaker for others, revealing structured disagreement, particularly across local versus global oddball paradigms. We further define hypothesis-space temperature, a geometric dispersion metric measuring how compactly studies occupy the hypothesis space. Temperature was lower for local oddball contexts and higher for global oddball contexts, indicating greater dispersion in the latter. The scoring geometry also allowed us to estimate vectors of change between experimental contexts. These results demonstrate that local multi-LLM councils can produce auditable disagreement measurements that map heterogeneous literatures into quantitative evidence spaces. This framework may generalize to cross-study hypothesis mapping where conventional meta-analysis lacks a common comparison space.

Predictive coding (PC) offers a local and biologically grounded alternative to backpropagation in the training of artificial neural networks, yet to date, it remains slower, and performance degrades sharply as network depth increases. We trace both problems to a single simplification: current PC networks fix the precision matrix to the identity, discarding precision-weighted prediction errors that the variational derivation requires to be fast, local, and Bayesian. We close this gap by expressing predictive coding networks as deep hierarchical Gaussian filters (HGFs) and restore precision-weighted message passing, yielding dynamic uncertainty estimates and Hebbian-compatible update rules at every layer. The resulting networks can simultaneously learn activations, weights, and precisions under a single free-energy objective, with no global error signal, and resolve inference without requiring iterations or automatic differentiation. On FashionMNIST, our solution approaches backpropagation in epoch-level wall-clock cost while converging in fewer epochs, and outperforms it on online, data efficiency, and concept-drift tasks. We thus establish that closed-form variational inference with online precision learning provides a tractable foundation for deep predictive coding networks, retaining biological and interpretative advantages, without requiring iterative relaxation or global error signals.

Because LiDAR sensors acquire point clouds with a fixed angular resolution, the resulting data can be systematically parameterized and efficiently compressed in the spherical coordinate system. Traditional spherical coordinate-based point cloud compression methods have demonstrated strong rate-distortion (RD) performance, with the predictive geometry coding (PredGeom) method in the geometry-based point cloud compression (G-PCC) standard being a prominent example. Although PredGeom includes an inter-frame prediction mode, it relies on a simple linear model, which limits its ability to capture complex motion patterns and structural dependencies. Meanwhile, existing learning-based compression methods in the spherical domain do not exploit inter-frame correlations to reduce geometry redundancy. To address these limitations, we propose a learning-based inter-frame predictive coding method, termed Inter-LPCM. For azimuth prediction, we employ a delta coding strategy based on the predefined angular resolution. To improve radius compression, we introduce an inter-frame radius predictive (Inter-RP) model that estimates the current point's radius using neighboring points from both the current frame and the registered reference frame. In addition, we design a lightweight attention-based prediction (LAEP) model to predict elevation angles by capturing long-range geometric correlations across different coordinates. For quantization, we propose an RD-optimized method to select quantization steps in the spherical coordinate system. For entropy coding, we design distinct models for each spherical coordinate component. These models are adapted to the statistical priors of each coordinate, enabling more accurate probability estimation. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/SDUChangSun/Inter-LPCM

Specialized foundation models are beginning to emerge in various medical subdomains, but pretraining methodologies and parametric scaling with the size of the pretraining dataset are rarely assessed systematically and in a like-for-like manner. This work focuses on foundation models for electrocardiography (ECG) data, one of the most widely captured physiological time series world-wide. We present a comprehensive assessment of pretraining methodologies, covering five different contrastive and non-contrastive self-supervised learning objectives for ECG foundation models, and investigate their scaling behavior with pretraining dataset sizes up to 11M input samples, exclusively from publicly available sources. Pretraining strategy has a meaningful and consistent impact on downstream performance, with contrastive predictive coding (slightly ahead of JEPA) yielding the most transferable representations across diverse clinical tasks. Scaling pretraining data continues to yield meaningful improvements up to 11M samples for most objectives. We also compare model architectures across all pretraining methodologies and find evidence for a clear superiority of structured state space models compared to transformers and CNN models. We hypothesize that the strong inductive biases of structured state space models, rather than pretraining scale alone, are the primary driver of effective ECG representation learning, with important implications for future foundation model development in this and potentially other physiological signal domains.

Predictive Coding (PC) is an influential account of cortical learning. Much of recent work has focused on comparing PC to Backpropagation (BP) to find whether PC offers any advantages. Small scale experiments show that PC enables learning that is more sample efficient and effective in many contexts, though a thorough theoretical understanding of the phenomena remains elusive. To address this, we quantify the efficiency of learning in BP and PC through a metric called ``target alignment'', which measures how closely the change in the output of the network is aligned to the output prediction error. We then derive and empirically validate analytical expressions for target alignment in Deep Linear Networks. We show that learning in PC is more efficient than BP, which is especially pronounced in deep, narrow and pre-trained networks. We also derive exact conditions for guaranteed optimal target alignment in PC and validate our findings through experiments. We study full training trajectories of linear and non-linear models, and find the predicted benefits of PC persist in practice even when some assumptions are violated. Overall, this work provides a mechanistic understanding of the higher learning efficiency observed for PC over BP in previous works, and can guide how PC should be parametrised to learn most effectively.

According to the theory of constructed emotion, the brain actively forms emotion categories by integrating multimodal bodily signals, and constructs emotional experiences by using these categories to predict and interpret sensory inputs. While research has advanced in modeling individual emotion construction, the social process of co-construction-how a shared understanding of emotions emerges between individuals-remains computationally underexplored. This study investigates this process by modeling emergent communication between two embodied agents using the Metropolis-Hastings Naming Game (MHNG), grounded in the Collective Predictive Coding (CPC) framework. Our experiments, using visual, auditory, and simulated interoceptive inputs, yield two main findings. First, MHNG-based communication significantly improves the alignment, clarity, and inter-agent agreement of the learned emotion categories compared to non-communicative and non-selective baselines, with the alignment effect concentrated at the symbolic layer rather than the perceptual latent representation. Second, even when the two agents have systematically divergent interoceptive dynamics, communication still produces robust categorical alignment, with distinct, category-specific reshaping patterns of each agent's emotion categories-consistent with the constructed-emotion view that interoceptive heterogeneity is constitutive of, rather than an obstacle to, shared emotional meaning. These findings provide computational support for the co-constructionist view of emotion and extend the CPC framework from physical to socially-grounded domains.

Inter-brain synchrony (IBS) observed in real-time dyadic interactions, including parent-infant exchanges, suggests that two agents can align their internal representations through interaction. Yet computational accounts of how such alignment can arise between agents that have only local sensory access and asymmetric internal knowledge remain underdeveloped. We propose a constructive model of parent-infant homeostatic co-regulation that integrates a POMDP formulation of active interoceptive inference with the Metropolis-Hastings Naming Game (MHNG) derived from the Collective Predictive Coding (CPC) hypothesis. In our model, the parent and infant agents agree on homeostatic regulatory actions for the infant's visceral state through a shared communicative variable generated by a locally computable Metropolis-Hastings probability. The parent observes the infant through body-generated exteroceptive cues, whereas the infant directly senses its own visceral state through interoception. This difference in access modality is implemented as asymmetric generative-model knowledge: the parent knows how actions transform visceral states but must learn what the infant's bodily cues indicate, whereas the infant perceives its visceral state directly but must learn how actions affect it. We quantify the degree of representational alignment using the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the two agents' latent representations. Notably, this synchrony emerged far earlier than the generative-model convergence and was maintained despite heterogeneous generative-model knowledge, indicating that it does not require fully shared world models. These findings support CPC as a candidate computational framework for explaining how dynamic representational synchrony relevant to IBS can emerge through local interactions.

This paper introduces an extension of generalised filtering for online applications. Generalised filtering refers to data assimilation schemes that jointly infer latent states, learn unknown model parameters, and estimate uncertainty in an integrated framework -- e.g., estimate state and observation noise -- at the same time (i.e., triple estimation). This framework appears across disciplines under different names, including variational Kalman-Bucy filtering in engineering, generalised predictive coding in neuroscience, and Dynamic Expectation Maximisation (DEM) in time-series analysis. Here, we specialise DEM for ``online'' data assimilation, through a separation of temporal scales. We describe the variational principles and procedures that allow one to assimilate data in a way that allows for a slow updating of parameters and precisions, which contextualise fast Bayesian belief updating about the dynamic hidden states. Using numerical studies, we demonstrate the validity of online DEM (ODEM) using a non-linear -- and potentially chaotic -- generative model, to show that the ODEM scheme can track the latent states of the generative process, even when its functional form differs fundamentally from the dynamics of the generative model. Framed from a neuro-mimetic predictive coding perspective, ODEM offers a biologically inspired solution to online inference, learning, and uncertainty estimation in dynamic environments.

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) is a leading framework for mathematically modeling self-organization and learning, while Integrated Information Theory (IIT) is a computational ontology of consciousness oriented around irreducible cause and effect. While conceptual unifications have been proposed and appear to be supported by empirical findings, the absence of a rigorous mathematical mapping places upper bounds on their precision and testability. This work proposes that information can be defined as the deviation $ψ$ of realized dynamics from a constrained maximum-caliber (MaxCal) path ensemble over a finite time horizon. Under this definition, each of the cause/effect repertoires central to IIT 3.0 emerge directly from MaxCal variational principles, allowing IIT's phenomenological calculus to be re-derived from constrained entropy-maximization (CMEP). This framework supplies a theoretical bridge to active inference, which is mathematically dual to CMEP under Langevin dynamics, and offers a principled route for extending IIT to new dynamical regimes. When the approach is applied under the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for Markov chains and via large deviations theory (LDT) to Ising models, information $ψ$ is shown to be equivalent to prediction error under accompanying predictive coding models. This may hold relevance to the ``hill-shaped trajectory'' of $Φ$ observed in neuronal cultures adapting to sensory inputs. Together, these results provide a physically and mathematically grounded rationale for studying the convergence of FEP, IIT, and thermodynamic frameworks of cognition such as recent work grounding consciousness in violations of the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT).

Cacioli (2026) showed that the K-way energy probe on standard discriminative predictive coding networks reduces approximately to a monotone function of the log-softmax margin. The reduction rests on five assumptions, including cross-entropy (CE) at the output and effectively feedforward inference dynamics. This pre-registered study tests the reduction's sensitivity to CE removal using two conditions: standard PC trained with MSE instead of CE, and bidirectional PC (bPC; Oliviers, Tang & Bogacz, 2025). Across 10 seeds on CIFAR-10 with a matched 2.1M-parameter backbone, we find three results. The negative result replicates on standard PC: the probe sits below softmax (Delta = -0.082, p < 10^-6). On bPC the probe exceeds softmax across all 10 seeds (Delta = +0.008, p = 0.000027), though a pre-registered manipulation check shows that bPC does not produce materially greater latent movement than standard PC at this scale (ratio 1.6, threshold 10). Removing CE alone without changing inference dynamics halves the probe-softmax gap (Delta_MSE = -0.037 vs Delta_stdPC = -0.082). CE is a major empirically load-bearing component of the decomposition at this scale. CE training produces output logit norms approximately 15x larger than MSE or bPC training. A post-hoc temperature scaling ablation decomposes the probe-softmax gap into two components: approximately 66% is attributable to logit-scale effects removable by temperature rescaling, and approximately 34% reflects a scale-invariant ranking advantage of CE-trained representations. We use "metacognitive" operationally to denote Type-2 discrimination of a readout over its own Type-1 correctness, not to imply human-like introspective access.

Lateral predictive coding (LPC) is a simple theoretical framework to appreciate feature detection in biological neural circuits. Recent theoretical work [Huang et al., Phys.Rev.E 112, 034304 (2025)] has successfully constructed optimal LPC networks capable of extracting non-Gaussian hidden input features by imposing the tradeoff between energetic cost and information robustness, but the resulting dynamical systems of recurrent interactions can be very slow in responding to external inputs. We investigate response-time reduction in the present paper. We find that the characteristic response time of the LPC system can be minimized to closely approaching the lower-bound value without compromising the mean predictive error (energetic cost) and the information robustness of signal transmission. We further demonstrate that optimal LPC networks taking a modular structural organization with extensively reduced number of lateral interactions are equally excellent as all-to-all completely connected networks, in terms of feature detection performance, response time, energetic cost and information robustness.

This paper is dedicated to lossless data compression with probability estimation using neural networks. First, we propose a probability estimation architecture based on a chain of neural predictors, so that each unit of the chain is defined as a neural network with the minimum possible number of weights, which is sufficient for efficient compression of data generated by Markov sources of a given order. We show that this architecture allows us to minimize the overall number of weights participating in the probability estimation process depending on the statistical properties of the input data. Second, in order to improve compression efficiency, we introduce an information inheritance mechanism, where the probability estimate obtained by a low-order unit is used at the next higher-order unit. Experimental results show that the proposed lossless data compressor equipped with the chained probability estimation architecture provides compression ratios close to the state-of-the-art PAC compressor. At the same time, it outperforms PAC by a factor of 1.2 to 6.3 in encoding throughput and by a factor of 2.8 to 12.3 in decoding throughput on a consumer GPU.

Temporal Predictive Coding provides a layer-local, parallelisable mechanism for learning in recurrent systems, making it an attractive candidate for online local learning on neuromorphic and edge hardware. However, its recurrent parameter update captures only local temporal relationships, neglecting the historic influence of parameters along the latent-state trajectory, and therefore struggles to assign credit over longer temporal horizons. This work combines for the first time Temporal Predictive Coding with Real-Time Recurrent Learning (tPC-RTRL), incorporating an online influence matrix that tracks this historic effect whilst preserving the spatial and temporal locality properties valued by neuromorphic implementations. Under explicit assumptions, we prove that tPC-RTRL recovers the gradients of backpropagation-through-time exactly. Empirically, a near-equivalence holds across several tasks of varying scale and complexity, including byte-level language modelling on WikiText-103 (tPC-RTRL vs. BPTT: 1.865 vs. 1.864 validation BPC), English--French translation on a CCMatrix subset (20.23 vs. 20.29 BLEU), and a realistic nanodrone system-identification benchmark (0.506m vs. 0.505m mean position error). Finally, we show that the iterative inference mechanism used during training can be reused at deployment time to incorporate intermittent state observations, halving final-position error relative to open-loop rollout on the nanodrone task (0.402m vs. 0.805m) and suggesting a path towards unifying learning and filtering within the same computational framework.

Self-supervised learning has become an increasingly important paradigm in the domain of machine intelligence. Furthermore, evidence for self-supervised adaptation, such as contrastive formulations, has emerged in recent computational neuroscience and brain-inspired research. Nevertheless, current work on self-supervised learning relies on biologically implausible credit assignment -- in the form of backpropagation of errors -- and feedforward inference, typically a forward-locked pass. Predictive coding, in its mechanistic form, offers a biologically plausible means to sidestep these backprop-specific limitations. However, unsupervised predictive coding rests on learning a generative model of raw input (akin to "generative AI" approaches), which entails predicting a potentially high dimensional input; on the other hand, supervised predictive coding, which learns a mapping between inputs to target labels, requires human annotation, and thus incurs the drawbacks of supervised learning. In this work, we present a scheme for self-supervised learning, specifically for an emerging research sub-domain that we label as neuroscience-informed self-supervised learning (NeuroSSL), within a neurobiologically plausible framework that appeals to the free energy principle, constructing a new form of predictive coding that we call meta-representational predictive coding (MPC). MPC sidesteps the need for learning a generative model of sensory input (e.g., pixel-level features) by learning to predict representations of the input across parallel streams, resulting in an encoder-only learning and inference scheme. This formulation notably rests on active inference (in the form of sensory glimpsing) to drive the learning of representations, i.e., the representational dynamics are driven by sequences of decisions made by the model to sample informative portions of its sensorium.