Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

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14 papers in the last four weeks, up 56% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. CENTILE: A Telemetry Foundation Model Evaluated by the Decisions It Drives

    Aug 3, 2026Zifan Zhang, Zhichao Hou, Tingxiang Ji +1High-Performance ComputingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA

  2. Crossing-Free Probabilistic K-Line Forecasts Without Retraining

    Jul 29, 2026Runyao Yu, Yuchen Tao, Yujie Chen +2Financial ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    London Business School London, United Kingdom · RWTH Aachen University Aachen, Germany · The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shenzhen, China +1

  3. Foundation Models and Fine-Tuning: Toward a New Generation of Models for Time Series Forecasting

    Jul 25, 2026Morad Laglil, Bertrand Pracca, Emilie Devijver +1Zero-Shot Time Series ForecastingTime-Series Foundation Models

    Savoye, 18 bd des Gorgets, 21000, Dijon, France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LIG, Grenoble, 38000, France

  4. From Seasonality to Semantics: Benchmarking a Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting System for Roadblocks in Bolivia

    Jul 23, 2026Rodrigo Vargas Sainz, Christian Berón CurtiProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Universidad Privada de Santa Cruz de la Sierra

  5. Transformer-based Diffusion models for Hydrological Time Series Probabilistic Imputation and Forecasting

    Jul 23, 2026Ferdinand Bhavsar, Lionel Benoit, Maxime Savatier +1Multivariate Time Series ForecastingTime Series Imputation

    INRAE · Biostatistics and Spatial Processes (BioSP), INRAE, Avignon 84914, France · ANDRA +1

  6. SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting

    Jul 22, 2026Hang Ye, Xinyan Jiang, Yuedong Shi +5Probabilistic ForecastingElectricity Load Forecasting

    Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China · School of Physical Science and Technology, Shanghaitech University, Shanghai 201210, China +2

  7. Forecasting the Number of Harvest-ready Fruits of Sweet Peppers Using Multimodal Time-Series Data

    Jul 22, 2026Enrico Pallotta, Mohamed Farag, Esra Guclu +3Multivariate Time Series ForecastingPlant Phenotyping

    University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany · Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, Bonn, Germany · CSIRO, Pullenvale, Australia

  8. Towards Reliable Zero-Shot Crowd Forecasting: Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Special Event Pedestrian Forecasting

    Jul 20, 2026Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin, Tina Comes +1Zero-Shot Time Series ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Department of Transport & Planning, Delft, The Netherlands. · Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Technology, Policy and Management, Delft, The Netherlands. · German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures, Sankt Augustin, Germany.

  9. Behaviour-Conditioned Neural Processes for Adaptive Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Jul 17, 2026Ramin Soleimani, Andrea Visentin, Dirk PeschNeural ProcessesTime Series Forecasting

    School of Computer Science and Information Technology, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland

  10. Learning-based Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Post-hoc and In-model Uncertainty

    Jul 14, 2026Sarah Al-Shareeda, Gulcihan Ozdemir, Heung Seok JeonQuantile RegressionTime Series Forecasting

    aComputer System and Technology Department, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Malaysia · bInformatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey · cComputer Engineering Department Konkuk University South Korea

  11. Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting

    Jul 13, 2026Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi BrahmaGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionTime Series Forecasting

    B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology Jalandhar, India

  12. TSCoNet: A Two-Stage Copula CNN-LSTM for Uncertainty-Aware Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

    Jul 11, 2026Jongwook Kim, Jong-Min KimMultivariate Time Series ForecastingCopula Models

    Statistics Discipline, Division of Science and Mathematics, University of Minnesota-Morris

  13. QuantFlow: A Federated Mamba-Based Post-Transformer Foundation Model for Time-Series Forecasting

    Jul 2, 2026Shah Nawaz Haider, Steve Austin, Arnab Barua +2Selective SSMsTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology Chittagong · Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Science and Technology Chittagong · Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of Science and Technology Chittagong

  14. Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependence

    Jul 2, 2026Zhenghua Pan, Ahmed Aziz EzzatZero-Shot Time Series ForecastingElectricity Price Forecasting

    Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA.

  15. Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics

    Jul 2, 2026Benedikt Kaas, Manuel Treutlein, Hannes Benedikt Gerber +5Time Series ForecastingElectricity Load Forecasting

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany and Netze BW GmbH, Germany · Netze BW GmbH, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany

  16. Beyond Point Estimates for Glaucoma Visual Field Forecasting with Diffusion Models

    Jun 29, 2026Marta Colmenar Herrera, Pablo Márquez Neila, Şerife Seda Kucur Ergünay +2Spatiotemporal ForecastingUncertainty Calibration

    ARTORG Center for Biomedical Engineering Research, UniBe, Switzerland · PeriVision SA, Epalinges, Switzerland · Department of Ophthalmology, Inselspital, Bern, Switzerland

  17. Heads, Not Backbones: Output Heads Dominate Architectures on Fat-Tailed Returns

    Jun 29, 2026Sichao He, Yansong ZhangQuantitative FinanceFinancial Forecasting

    Peking University · Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies · Beijing, China +2

  18. The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference

    Jun 26, 2026Pablo Montero-Manso, Marcel ScharthSimulation-Based InferenceZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

    University of Sydney Business School, Australia

  19. Multipath Adaptive Gated Bottleneck Latent ODE with Raman Data Fusion for Cell Culture Process Forecasting

    Jun 25, 2026Johnny Peng, Thanh Tung Khuat, Ellen Otte +2Irregular Time-Series ModelingTime Series Forecasting

    Complex Adaptive Systems Laboratory, The Data Science Institute, University of Technology Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia · CSL Innovation, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia

  20. Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series: prefer the mean scaled score

    Jun 23, 2026Giorgio Corani, Stefano Damato, Dario Azzimonti +1Model SelectionTime Series Forecasting

    SUPSI, Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA), Lugano, Switzerland

  21. Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

    Jun 23, 2026Arya Hariharan, Shreyank N Gowda, Anala M RClinical Outcome PredictionAlzheimer's Disease Classification

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, R.V. College of Engineering, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India · School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom

  22. Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting

    Jun 16, 2026Yingshuo Wang, Xian Sun, Lingdong Kong +4Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA · Duke University, Durham, NC, USA · National University of Singapore, Singapore +3

  23. Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series

    Jun 15, 2026Yannick LimmerConfidence Region EstimationConformal Prediction

    DRW · London, United Kingdom

  24. CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Resource Consolidation

    Jun 11, 2026Xiaobin Zhang, Lefei Shen, Mouxiang Chen +6Zero-Shot Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China · State Street Technology (Zhejiang) Ltd. Hangzhou, China · Richoo AI Hangzhou, China +2

  25. Navigating the Safety-Fidelity Trade-off: Massive-Variate Time Series Forecasting for Power Systems via Probabilistic Scenarios

    Jun 11, 2026Kaijie Xu, Anqi Wang, Xilin DaiMultivariate Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    ZJU-UIUC Institute Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China

  26. Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting for Alleviating Over-smoothing in Time Series Forecasting

    Jun 9, 2026Xingyu Zhang, Jingyao Wang, Xin Yu +4Time Series ForecastingProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences

  27. Investigating Calibration Challenges in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

    Jun 8, 2026Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Benjamin SchäferProbability CalibrationElectricity Price Forecasting

    Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics

  28. Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting

    Jun 8, 2026Valery ManokhinTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Independent researcher.

  29. Tyan-WP: A Wind Power Foundation Model for Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting

    Jun 7, 2026Jiahui Huang, Ao Luo, Lei Liu +6Zero-Shot Time Series ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    School of Information Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230022, China · China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing, 100192, China

  30. Reconstructing and forecasting disease trajectories of patients with Alzheimer's disease using routine data in resource-constrained settings

    Jun 5, 2026Ratnadeep Das, Atri Chatterjee, Sitikantha RoyAlzheimer's DiseaseClinical Outcome Prediction

    Yardi School of Artificial Intelligence (ScAI), Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, Delhi, 110016, India · Department of Neurology, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, Delhi, 110029, India · Department of Applied Mechanics, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, Delhi, 110016, India