Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 279

May 20, 2026cs.LG

AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion

Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.

Somnath Luitel, Manmeet Singh, Joshua Durkee +11

Department of Earth, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA · NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA +3

Geospatial Foundation Models Spatiotemporal Forecasting Diffusion Models Weather Forecasting

May 19, 2026cs.AI

HaorFloodAlert: A 72-Hour Machine Learning Early Warning System for Flash Floods in Bangladesh's Haor Wetlands

Every spring, flash floods strike the haor wetlands of northeast Bangladesh just before the boro rice harvest, and one flood can erase a family's entire crop in days. Warning people in time is hard here for a structural reason: the Sunamganj Haor is a flat, bowl-shaped basin that fills at once from local rain, domestic rivers, and the Barak River in India, while fewer than twelve working gauges cover its 8,000 km2. Existing models add a quieter problem of their own, because they train on raw temperature, which simply follows the season, so they learn the calendar instead of the flood, and none of them delivers a warning to a farmer. HaorFloodAlert answers both problems with free data alone: Sentinel-1 radar that sees through storm clouds, rainfall records and forecasts, soil moisture, and a modeled upstream Barak signal worth about 36 hours of lead time. A monthly climatological anomaly then removes the seasonal bias, cutting the temperature-label correlation from r=0.570 to r=-0.031. Tested by leave-one-out cross-validation on 77 events with real Sentinel-1 images (2014-2024), the Random Forest and XGBoost ensemble reaches 90.9% accuracy, 89.2% F1-score, and AUC 0.939, and these labels hold up against 12.3 years of official gauge records. The same system then ran live for ten days in May-June 2026 and raised a high-risk alert about three days before the river neared its danger level. Warnings go out in Bengali by SMS, e-mail, and WhatsApp, and every number here can be regenerated from our public, seeded pipeline.

Salma Hoque Talukdar Koli, Fahima Haque Talukder Jely, Md. Samiul Alim +1

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, RTM Al-Kabir Technical University, Sylhet-3100, Bangladesh · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, North East University Bangladesh, Sylhet, Bangladesh · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dhaka University of Engineering & Technology, Gazipur, Bangladesh

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Flood Forecasting

May 19, 2026cs.LG

FLUXtrapolation: A benchmark on extrapolating ecosystem fluxes

We introduce FLUXtrapolation, a benchmark for extrapolating ecosystem fluxes under progressively harder distribution shifts. Ecosystem fluxes are central to understanding the carbon, water, and energy cycles, yet they can only be measured directly at sparsely located measurement towers. Producing global flux estimates therefore requires training models on observed sites using globally available covariates and predicting in unobserved regions, that is, upscaling. Flux upscaling is a challenging domain generalization problem that is affected by a shift in covariate distribution across climates, ecosystem types, and environmental conditions, as well as by conditional shift: important drivers remain unobserved at global scale. We provide a quantitative analysis of both these shifts in

P_X

and

P_{Y\mid X}

. FLUXtrapolation is designed based on domain expertise on flux upscaling: it defines temporal, spatial, and temperature-based extrapolation scenarios and evaluates performance across held-out domains, temporal aggregations, and tail errors. In a pilot study, we find that baselines perform similarly under median hourly RMSE, but separate under the proposed tail-focused and multi-scale evaluation. FLUXtrapolation therefore poses a realistic and thus relevant challenge for machine learning methods under distribution shift; at the same time, progress on this benchmark would directly support the scientific goal of improving flux upscaling.

Anya Fries, Jacob A Nelson, Martin Jung +2

Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich Zürich, Switzerland · Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena, Germany

Distribution Shift Robustness OOD Generalization Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 19, 2026cs.LG

Accurate, Efficient, and Explainable Deep Learning Approaches for Environmental Science Problems

Environmental science plays a pivotal role in safeguarding ecosystems, a domain driven by large-scale, heterogeneous data. In the big data era, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative tool for learning patterns and supporting decision-making. This dissertation develops AI-based approaches tailored to complex environmental science problems to achieve Environmental Intelligence, studying three specific challenges. First, we focus on flood prediction and management in coastal river systems. Conventional physics-based models are computationally intensive, limiting real-time application. To overcome this, we propose a deep learning (DL)-based model, WaLeF, for water level forecasting, and a forecast-informed DL model, FIDLAr, to manage water levels. Evaluated in a flood-prone coastal system in South Florida characterized by extreme rainfall and sea level fluctuations, FIDLAr outperforms baselines in accuracy and efficiency while providing interpretable outputs. Second, we target global weather prediction, which is challenged by massive data scale. Traditional physics methods are deterministic and computationally heavy. We propose CoDiCast, a conditional diffusion model tailored for probabilistic weather forecasting. Adapted from generative AI for predictive tasks, experiments show CoDiCast achieves accurate, efficient forecasts with explicit uncertainty quantification. Lastly, we address scientific question-answering in environmental science. When answering in-domain questions, large language models (LLMs) often suffer from hallucinations due to out-of-date or limited knowledge. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) retrieves domain-specific knowledge, existing methods trade off accuracy, efficiency, or explainability. We propose Hypercube-RAG, built on a structured text cube framework, which successfully exhibits all three properties simultaneously.

Jimeng Shi

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida

Retrieval-Augmented Generation Explainable Artificial Intelligence Probabilistic Forecasting Question Answering Spatiotemporal Forecasting Flood Forecasting

May 18, 2026cs.LG

Bridge: Retrieval-Augmented Spatiotemporal Modeling for Urban Delivery Demand

Forecasting urban delivery demand becomes substantially more challenging when newly added service regions lack historical records. Existing spatiotemporal forecasters effectively model spatial dependence once sufficient node histories are available. Still, they remain parametric and therefore struggle to recover short-term operational dynamics in cold-start regions. Geospatial embeddings help identify where a region is and what function it serves, yet they do not directly reveal how a similar region behaves under a comparable temporal context. We propose Bridge, a retrieval-augmented spatiotemporal graph framework that combines an inductive contextual graph backbone with a time-aware memory of region-time windows. For each target region, Bridge retrieves future demand patterns from the memory using both regional context and recent dynamics, and refines the backbone forecast through a gated fusion mechanism. To align retrieval with forecasting utility, we further train the retriever with a future-aware objective that favors entries whose future trajectories best match the target. Experiments on four real-world delivery datasets show that Bridge consistently improves over competitive spatiotemporal baselines in both within-city cold-start and cross-city transfer with partial observations. The results show that retrieval augmentation provides a useful operational memory for cold-start urban demand forecasting when parametric graph generalization alone is insufficient.

Yihong Tang, Tong Nie, Junlin He +3

McGill University · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University · University of Toronto +1

Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 18, 2026cs.RO

4DLidarOpen: An Open 4D FMCW Lidar Dataset for Motion-Aware Autonomous Driving

We present 4DLidarOpen, a large-scale open multi-modal dataset for autonomous driving, centered on 4D frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) Lidar sensing. Unlike conventional time-of-flight Lidar datasets that mainly provide geometric measurements, 4DLidarOpen includes point-wise radial velocity measurements from a forward-facing 4D FMCW Lidar, together with multiple Lidars of different types, including rotating, solid-state, and blind-spot variants, surround-view cameras, and 6-DOF ego-vehicle poses. The dataset was collected in complex urban environments in Beijing and covers dense pedestrian interactions, congested traffic, high-speed driving, and unprotected maneuvers. 4DLidarOpen provides synchronized multi-sensor data and 3D bounding-box annotations with persistent track IDs across five object categories. A hybrid annotation strategy is adopted, where large-scale auto-labeled data support scalable training and human experts refine annotations for the human-annotated training and validation sets. Based on this dataset, we establish benchmarks for 3D object detection, birds-eye view (BEV) segmentation and flow prediction, and motion forecasting with planning. Extensive experiments show that direct velocity measurements from 4D FMCW Lidar provide complementary motion cues for dynamic-scene understanding. Compared with geometric-only sensing, the velocity-aware representation improves motion-related perception and downstream forecasting and planning, especially in scenarios involving vulnerable road users and fast-moving objects. These results indicate that 4D FMCW Lidar is a promising sensing modality for motion-aware autonomous driving. The dataset and evaluation toolkit are publicly released to support research on 4D scene understanding, multi-Lidar fusion, and velocity-aware perception and planning.

Kane Qian, Xin Zhao, Yining Shi +7

1Tsinghua University. · 2Hesai Technology Co., Ltd.

Autonomous Driving Datasets Autonomous Driving Autonomous Driving Perception 3D Object Detection Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 18, 2026cs.LG

Improving Spatio-Temporal Residual Error Propagation by Mitigating Over-Squashing

Residual error propagation remains a fundamental problem in recurrent models, where small prediction inaccuracies compound over time and degrade long-horizon performance. Accurately modeling the correlation structure of such residuals is critical for reliable uncertainty quantification in probabilistic multivariate timeseries forecasting. While recent time-series deep models efficiently parametrize time-varying contemporaneous correlations, they often assume temporal independence of errors and neglect spatial correlation across the observed network. In this paper, we introduce Teger, a structured uncertainty module that overcomes the spa- tial and temporal limitations of error-correlated autoregressive forecasting. Teger proposes a spatial curvature-aware graph rewiring mechanism explicitly strengthening information-bottleneck edges identified by discrete Forman curvature. The component is integrated into a low-rank-plus-diagonal covariance head, preserving tractable inference via the Woodbury identity. Teger is backbone-agnostic, requiring only the latent state produced by any autoregressive encoder. We provide theoretical evidence of Teger, and experimentally evaluate it on LSTM, Transformer, and xLSTM backbones across four real-world spatio-temporal datasets, showing consistent improvement in Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We further provide a formal theoretical analysis connecting curvature-aware rewiring to (i) oversquashing alleviation, (ii) improved spectral connectivity, (iii) reduced effective resistance, and (iv) improved covariance calibration bounds

Seyed Mohamad Moghadas, Esther Rodrigo Bonet, Bruno Cornelis +1

ETRO Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium · imec Kapeldreef 75, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium

Graph Rewiring Over-Squashing Spatiotemporal Forecasting Uncertainty Propagation Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

May 17, 2026cs.LG

Learning Displacement-Robust Representations for Landslide Early Warning under Rainfall Forecast Uncertainty

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate near-future landslide risk by integrating observed rainfall with short-term rainfall forecasts from spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Although recent landslide prediction methods have improved predictive performance using statistical and deep learning approaches, most assume accurate rainfall inputs. In operational settings, however, landslide prediction relies on rainfall forecasts, which often contain spatial displacement of rainfall fields due to forecasting uncertainties. Such displacement can alter local accumulated rainfall and degrade prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel LEWS robust to rainfall field displacement. The key idea is to learn latent representations from rainfall and terrain data that remain stable under displacement in rainfall field motion, enabling reliable geospatial data integration for landslide risk estimation. The landslide prediction model is trained using Rainfall-Motion-Aware Contrastive Learning (RMCL), which introduces temporally correlated rainfall field perturbations to emulate forecast-induced displacement in rainfall-driven spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Experiments were conducted using two years of rainfall and terrain data across Japan, covering 19 regions with landslide events. The proposed system achieved up to 37% higher precision than state-of-the-art baselines. These results demonstrate that modeling rainfall as a moving spatial field and addressing rainfall field displacement during learning significantly improve the reliability of short-term landslide prediction in operational early warning systems.

Ren Ozeki, Hamada Rizk, Hirozumi Yamaguchi

Osaka University, Suita, Japan · Japan Meteorological Agency · RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan +1

Distribution Shift Robustness Contrastive Learning Geospatial Representation Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 16, 2026cs.LG

Mechanism Learning: Prototype-Anchored Mechanism Inference for Scientific Forecasting

Scientific forecasting typically relies on direct state prediction, an approach that grows brittle under data scarcity, extended horizons, non-stationary dynamics, or high-dimensional complexity. While raw state trajectories are highly sensitive in these regimes, underlying local evolution rules often exhibit robust reusability. We introduce mechanism learning, a framework that forecasts future states by estimating the currently active local mechanism. Our method compresses local spatiotemporal fragments into mechanism descriptors, forming a data-driven, structured mechanism space where proximity reflects similar local evolution rules. To ground these estimates in observed data, we utilize prototype anchors, a set of representative mechanisms that sparsely cover the space of local rules. We evaluate this approach on Burgers dynamics, WeatherBench2, and Lorenz96. Empirically, the learned mechanism spaces resist collapse and maintain strong local consistency. Compared to direct prediction and other models including FNO, NODE, LSTM, and reservoir-family methods, our framework demonstrates predictive gains in fragile regimes: it significantly improves switching stability in Burgers dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance both under the scarce-data fixed-horizon WeatherBench2 protocol and in intermediate-complexity Lorenz96. Ablation studies and drift diagnostics confirm that these improvements are driven by finite prototype anchoring rather than sheer latent capacity. Together, these results establish mechanism learning as a principled, robust alternative to direct state prediction in forecasting complex systems.

Qian Jiang, Liping Sun

School of Computing · The Australian National University · Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia +3

Prototype-Based Learning Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Scientific ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 16, 2026cs.AI

A Global-Local Graph Attention Network for Traffic Forecasting

Traffic forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation systems. One of the critical challenges of traffic forecasting is to find spatio-temporal correlations. In recent years, graph convolutional networks and graph attention networks have replaced traditional statistical models to predict future traffic. However, it is complicated for both of them to allow vertices to have far different characters. To address this, we propose the Global-Local Graph Attention Network (GLGAT) with pairwise encoding and the event-based adjacency matrix. The GLGAT allows vertices to have a global attention matrix set for the whole graph and assigns local attention matrix sets to each vertex. Experiments on two real-world traffic datasets show that GLGAT can effectively capture spatio-temporal correlations and has competitive performance against other state-of-the-art baselines.

Tianchi Zhang

Intelligent Transportation Systems Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 15, 2026cs.AI

Prospective multi-pathogen disease forecasting using autonomous LLM-guided tree search

Probabilistic forecasting of infectious diseases is crucial for public health but relies on labor-intensive manual model curation by expert modeling teams. This bespoke development bottlenecks scalability to granular geographic resolutions or emerging pathogens. Here, we present an autonomous system using Large Language Model (LLM)-guided tree search to iteratively generate, evaluate, and optimize executable forecasting software. In a fully prospective, real-time evaluation during the 2025-2026 US respiratory season, the system autonomously discovered methodologically diverse models for influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Aggregating these machine-generated models yielded an ensemble that consistently matched or outperformed the gold-standard, human-curated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) hub ensembles out-of-sample. The system successfully navigated data-scarce "cold start" scenarios for RSV. Moreover, controlled retrospective ablations revealed that optimizing log-scale distance metrics prevents reward hacking, while an automated judge-in-the-loop ensures structural fidelity to complex scientific theories. By autonomously translating epidemiological theory into accurate, transparent code, this framework overcomes the modeling labor bottleneck, enabling rapid deployment of expert-level disease forecasting at unprecedented scales.

Sarah Martinson, Michael P. Brenner, Martyna Plomecka +3

Google Research · School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University · Google Deepmind +1

Epidemic Forecasting Large Language Model-Guided Optimization Spatiotemporal Forecasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

May 15, 2026cs.LG

Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical spatial priors, often failing to account for evolving temporal correlations and suffering from systematic errors. In this work, we propose a nested forecasting framework that couples future macro-level regional trends with micro-level historical observations, enabling top-down guidance from abstract future representations for fine-grained forecasting. Specifically, we employ a spectral clustering-based approach to construct semantically coherent regions, providing both theoretical and empirical evidence that this representation effectively filters systematic noise while preserving essential trends. Building on this, we develop a progressive coarse-to-fine predictor to integrate these representative features into the inference process. This enables the model to leverage trend predictions to anticipate dynamic anomalies, such as periodic offsets, in advance. Furthermore, extensive experiments on multiple high-dimensional datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating the effectiveness of future macro-guided nested forecasting.

Yinghao Ai, Yukai Zhou, Ruoxi Jiang +8

National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, China · Shanghai Academy of AI for Science, Shanghai · Department of Computer Science and Technology, Nanjing University +3

Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multiscale Time-Series Modeling

May 14, 2026cs.LG

Njord: A Probabilistic Graph Neural Network for Ensemble Ocean Forecasting

Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional domains. Njord combines a deep latent variable framework with a graph neural network architecture, enabling sampling each forecast step in a single forward pass. We apply Njord globally at 0.25° resolution and regionally to the Baltic Sea at 2 km resolution. To scale to these large ocean grids we introduce K-means cluster meshes that adapt to irregular sea surface geometry. Experiments demonstrate strong performance on both domains compared to deterministic machine learning baselines, while also providing uncertainty estimates from the sampled ensemble forecasts. On the global OceanBench benchmark, Njord achieves the lowest errors on average across upper-ocean variables when evaluated against real-world observations, with the largest improvements in surface temperature prediction.

Daniel Holmberg, Joel Oskarsson, Erik Wikingsson +2

University of Helsinki · ETH AI Center · Linköping University

Graph Neural Networks Uncertainty Quantification Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 14, 2026cs.LG

GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment

Heatwaves are an important problem in cities, and climate change makes this problem more difficult. In this paper, we present a GPU-based deep learning framework for next-day prediction of urban thermal conditions and for heat risk assessment. The study was carried out in Sarajevo by using MODIS land surface temperature data and Open-Meteo forecast data. We tested several models, including convolutional models and spatiotemporal models. Among them, ConvLSTM with a mixed loss function gave the best results. The obtained values were MAE = 0.2293, RMSE = 0.3089, and R2 = 0.8877. The experiments also showed that results can be improved by using longer temporal series and additional meteorological variables. Since the framework was implemented on a GPU and trained with mixed precision, the execution time was reduced. Based on the predicted temperature fields, it was also possible to combine hazard information with exposure and vulnerability data in order to generate city heat risk maps. The proposed framework can be used as a practical basis for city heat analysis.

Adis Alihodžić

Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Convolutional LSTM Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting

May 14, 2026cs.LG

QuChaTeR: A Hybrid Quantum-Chaotic Temporal Framework for Earthquake Prediction

Seismic prediction remains challenging due to the highly nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of earthquake signals. While classical deep learning models such as LSTMs and CNNs capture local temporal features, and quantum models offer richer state representations, their integration with chaos-driven mechanisms is underexplored. We introduce QuChaTeR, a hybrid architecture that combines wavelet-based preprocessing, chaotic maps, and variational quantum circuits with recurrent structures to enhance temporal feature extraction. Implemented in PyTorch and PennyLane, QuChaTeR is benchmarked against classical (LSTM, GRU, RNN, 1D-CNN, Reservoir Computing) and quantum-inspired (Quantum LSTM) baselines. On real-world seismic datasets, QuChaTeR consistently converges faster and achieves superior performance across multiple evaluation criteria. Despite promising results, scalability and quantum hardware limitations remain challenges. Overall, this work demonstrates how quantum-chaotic hybridization provides a practical pathway toward more accurate and robust earthquake prediction.

Emir Kaan Özdemir

Istanbul Erkek High School Ministry of National Education Istanbul, Türkiye · Ministry of National Education

Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting Chaotic Time-Series Prediction

May 14, 2026cs.CV

MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting

Accurate precipitation nowcasting over extended horizons (0-3 hours) is essential for disaster mitigation and operational decision-making, yet remains a critical challenge in the field. Existing deterministic approaches are predominantly constrained to shorter prediction windows (0-2 hours), exhibiting severe performance degradation beyond 90 minutes owing to their inherent difficulty in capturing long-range spatiotemporal dependencies from radar-derived observations. To address these fundamental limitations, we propose MambaRain, a novel multi-scale encoder-decoder architecture that synergistically integrates Mamba's linear-complexity long-range temporal modeling with self-attention mechanisms for explicit spatial correlation capture. The core innovation lies in a hybrid design paradigm wherein Mamba blocks leverage selective state space mechanisms to model global temporal dynamics across extended sequences with computational efficiency, while self-attention modules explicitly characterize spatial correlations within precipitation fields - a capability inherently absent in Mamba's sequential processing paradigm. This complementary synergy enables comprehensive spatiotemporal representation learning, effectively extending the viable forecasting horizon to 2-3 hours with substantial accuracy improvements. Furthermore, we introduce a spectral loss formulation to mitigate blurring artifacts characteristic of chaotic precipitation systems, thereby preserving fine-scale motion details critical for nowcasting accuracy. Experimental validation demonstrates that MambaRain substantially outperforms existing deterministic methodologies in 0-3 hour nowcasting tasks, with particularly pronounced performance gains in the challenging 2-3 hour prediction range.

Chunlei Shi, Cui Wu, Xiang Xu +10

School of Automation, Southeast University · Nanjing XinDa Institute of Meteorological Science and Technology · Beijing Leninainfo Technology Co., Ltd. +5

Mamba Precipitation Forecasting Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting

May 14, 2026cs.LG

Does Your Wildfire Prediction Model Actually Work, or Just Score Well?

Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical objectives rather than wildfire forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce WILDFIRE-FM, the first foundation model pretrained specifically for wildfire prediction using weather, active-fire observations, topography, vegetation, and static environmental data. However, introducing a domain-specific backbone alone does not solve the evaluation problem: wildfire events are sparse in space and time, making transfer conclusions highly sensitive to matching rules and evaluation settings. To address this problem, we introduce a fixed-contract evaluation framework with two controlled checks: a fixed-output check for matching-rule effects and a fixed-feature check for head-selection effects. Under matched contracts, we compare WILDFIRE-FM with ten Earth-FM baselines across occupancy, spread, retrieval, and regression tasks. Our results show that wildfire transfer conclusions depend strongly on evaluation design and task formulation. We hope this framework and WILDFIRE-FM provide a foundation for future wildfire-specific Earth-FM research and benchmarking. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Wildfire-fm-evaluation-contracts-5AE9/.

Yangshuang Xu, Yuyang Dai, Liling Chang +2

Florida State University · Northeastern University

Geospatial Foundation Models Wildfire Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 13, 2026cs.LG

Toward AI-Driven Digital Twins for Metropolitan Floods: A Conditional Latent Dynamics Network Surrogate of the Shallow Water Equations

AI-driven flood digital twins demand fast hydrodynamic surrogates for ensemble forecasting and observation assimilation. Yet even GPU-accelerated two-dimensional shallow water equation (SWE) solvers still require

\sim 55

minutes per

96

-hour run on a

\sim 4.2

-million-active-cell metropolitan basin (the DesPlaines River basin at $30\,\mathrm{m}$ resolution), making such workloads prohibitive at native resolution. We present the Conditional Latent Dynamics Network (CLDNet): a low-dimensional latent neural ODE driven by rainfall, paired with a coordinate-based decoder conditioned on static terrain (elevation, slope, Manning roughness) that reconstructs depth and discharge at arbitrary query points. Pointwise decoding decouples memory from grid size and handles irregular watersheds natively, enabling metropolitan-scale training on a single compute node and direct queries at exact gauge coordinates without raster snapping. We evaluate CLDNet on a synthetic $250{,}000$ -cell Texas benchmark and on a new DesPlaines case study of

114

real-rainfall Stage~~IV storms whose reference simulator we validate against United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauges at the April~~2013 flood-of-record (Nash--Sutcliffe efficiency

0.57

--

0.94

on mean-recentered water-surface elevation). CLDNet roughly halves the relative root-mean-squared error of an unconditional baseline, outperforms regular-grid VAE--ConvLSTM and FNO baselines on the Texas benchmark (both presuppose a Cartesian grid and do not apply to the irregular Des~Plaines watershed), reaches a critical success index of

\approx 86\%

at the

0.5\,\mathrm{m}

inundation threshold, and produces a full

96

-hour basin-wide forecast in

\sim 29

seconds -- a

\sim 115\times

speedup.

Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu, Omar Sallam +4

School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 756 West Peachtree Street Northwest, Atlanta, 30308, GA, USA · Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S Cass Ave, Lemont, 60439, IL, USA

Neural Surrogate Modeling PDE Surrogate Modeling Digital Twins Spatiotemporal Forecasting Neural ODEs Flood Forecasting

May 13, 2026cs.LG

Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable for various applications, such as urban climate and ecology studies. Yet, existing satellite-derived LST products provide either high spatial or high temporal resolution, resulting in a fundamental trade-off between the two. To address this trade-off, we combine observations from a geostationary and a polar orbiting satellite and provide LST fields at high spatial and high temporal resolution (1 km at 15-min intervals). We demonstrate their application for intraday forecasting of LSTs. To estimate LST fields at high spatiotemporal resolution, a U-Net model is trained to map LST fields from SEVIRI/MSG (3 km and 15 min resolution) to LST fields from Terra/Aqua MODIS (1 km, 4 overpasses per day) that are collocated in space and time. The presented model has been trained on LSTs across large European cities with a population exceeding 1 million inhabitants, and achieves an RMSE =

1.92

°C and near-zero bias MBE =

0.01

°C on the hold-out test set. As a second step, we present an LST nowcasting model based on ConvLSTM architecture, trained across downscaled LST fields with forecast lead times of 15 to 75 minutes. The nowcasting model outperforms a persistence and a Climatological Rolling Median benchmarks, with RMSEs of

0.57

to

1.15

°C for the considered lead times and biases ranging from

-0.1

to

0.14

°C. An additional validation conducted against independent MODIS overpasses confirms robust performance. Our LST forecast model at high spatiotemporal resolution is directly applicable to operational satellite-based LST monitoring.

Solomiia Kurchaba, Angela Meyer

Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing · School of Engineering and Computer Science, Bern University of Applied Sciences

U-Net Convolutional LSTM Remote Sensing Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 13, 2026cs.LG

Stable Attention Response for Reliable Precipitation Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics. Although recent methods increasingly adopt attention-based architectures in both unimodal and multimodal settings, they mainly emphasize stronger representation learning and prediction capacity, while paying less attention to the stability of attention responses across samples. In this work, we show that cross-sample instability of attention-response energy is an important and previously underexplored source of forecasting unreliability. Empirically, inaccurate forecasts are associated with larger attention-response energy variance across heads and layers. Theoretically, we show that cross-sample variability can propagate through self-attention, and enlarge a lower bound on prediction error. Based on this insight, we propose HARECast, a Head-wise Attention Response Energy-regulated framework for precipitation nowcasting. HARECast explicitly models head-wise attention-response energy and stabilizes it through a group-wise regularization objective that reduces cross-sample fluctuations. The proposed formulation is generic and applicable to both unimodal and multimodal nowcasting architectures. We instantiate HARECast in a standard forecasting pipeline with reconstruction branches and a diffusion-based predictor, and evaluate it on commonly used benchmarks--SEVIR and MeteoNet. Experimental results demonstrate that HARECast achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Penghui Wen, Zexin Hu, Sen Zhang +6

School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney Australia · Independent Researcher Australia · School of Life and Environmental Science, The University of Sydney Australia +3

Precipitation Forecasting Attention Head Analysis Spatiotemporal Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting

May 13, 2026q-bio.NC

SpikeProphecy: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Autoregressive Neural Population Forecasting

Neural population models, which predict the joint firing of many simultaneously recorded neurons forward in time, are typically evaluated by a single aggregate Pearson correlation

r

between predicted and actual spike counts, a number that masks critical structure. We argue that how we evaluate spike forecasting matters as much as what we build, and introduce SpikeProphecy, the first large-scale benchmark for causal, autoregressive spike-count forecasting on real electrophysiology recordings. Our core contribution is a population metric decomposition that separates aggregate performance into temporal fidelity, spatial pattern accuracy, and magnitude-invariant alignment. The decomposition surfaces aspects of the underlying data that an aggregate scalar collapses together. We apply the protocol to 105 Neuropixels sessions (Steinmetz 2019 + IBL Repeated Site; ~89,800 neurons) with seven architecture baselines spanning four structural families: four SSMs (three diagonal and one non-diagonal), a Transformer, an LSTM, and a spiking network. The decomposition surfaces a brain-region predictability ranking that reproduces across all seven baselines and survives ANCOVA correction for firing-statistics constraints (region

ΔR^2 = 0.018

above the firing-statistics covariates). It also exposes a sub-Poisson evaluation floor where rigorous metrics combine with genuine biophysical constraints on regular spike trains, and yields a negative result on KL-on-output-rates distillation for ANN-to-SNN transfer in this Poisson count domain.

John R. Minnick, Jinghui Geng, Kamran Hussain +6

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA · UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA +2

Neural Processes Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Spiking Neural Networks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 12, 2026cs.LG

OceanCBM: A Concept Bottleneck Model for Mechanistic Interpretability in Ocean Forecasting

Extreme ocean phenomena are challenging not only to predict but to diagnose, as accurate forecasts alone do not reveal the underlying physical drivers. While recent machine learning approaches achieve strong predictive skill, they remain largely opaque and provide limited guarantees of fidelity to ground-truth physics. We introduce OceanCBM, the first concept bottleneck model (CBM) for spatiotemporal prediction and mechanistic interrogation of ocean dynamics. OceanCBM uses mixed supervision to predict mixed layer heat content, a key precursor of marine heatwaves, while routing information through an intermediate layer of prescribed concepts derived from geophysical fluid dynamics and a 'free' concept. This design imposes soft physical structure without over-constraining the model, and the free concept both regularizes concept predictions and captures residual physical processes. Across ensemble initializations, we show that mixed supervision yields consistent mechanistic representations, whereas prediction-only and prescription-only baselines learn highly variable latent structures despite similar predictive performance. OceanCBM achieves interpretable, physically grounded representations without sacrificing skill, explicitly characterizing the interpretability-performance trade-off.

Sanah Suri, Kieran Ringel, Maike Sonnewald

Department of Computer Science University of California, Davis Davis, CA 95616 · University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. · NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Concept Bottleneck Models Mechanistic Interpretability Physics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 12, 2026cs.LG

PyroAdapt: Adapting Wildfire Prediction under Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Shift

Prediction of wildfire occurrence is a rare-event problem compounded by spatial heterogeneity and temporal distribution shift, as fire occurrences are vastly outnumbered by non-occurrences, and predictor--fire relationship varies across space and time. Models trained on historical fire data may perform poorly under new conditions and require adaptation to the target distribution before operational use. We propose PyroAdapt, a pretrain--retrieve--rank framework that adapts a pretrained model to target conditions by retrieving historical locations with similar conditions and fine-tuning on the retrievals through risk ranking. For spatial adaptation, we condition risk on terrain, ecoregion embeddings, and fire rates, accounting for spatial context in the retrieval, and learn risk ordering from same-day fire--nonfire cell pairs. We compare direct ranking, residual pairwise DPO (RDPO), and selective ranking through a unified score-gap formulation that characterizes their gradient allocation. Over California (discretized into 666 0.25x0.25 grid cells), these objectives raise daily average precision from 21.62% for continued focal fine-tuning to 24.35--24.57%, and Top5% recall from 18.70% to 22.11--22.79%. Under a fixed daily detection budget of 34 cells (5% area), selective ranking captures 344 additional positive cell--days. For fires in the top 5%/10%/20% of dry matter consumption, selective ranking raises recall by 39.70/28.18/20.50 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, rolling evaluations over Yosemite show that the gains from ranking persist under temporal distribution shift. Together, these results show that PyroAdapt prioritizes the most fire-prone locations under a daily budget constraint and detects more extreme fire events.

Enyi Jiang, Wu Sun

Siebel School of Computing and Data Science, University of Illiois at Urbana-Champaign · Computer Science, Stanford University · Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science

Learning to Rank Domain Adaptation Wildfire Forecasting OOD Generalization Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 12, 2026cs.LG

U-STS-LLM A Unified Spatio-Temporal Steered Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction and Imputation

The efficient operation of modern cellular networks hinges on the accurate analysis of spatio-temporal traffic data. Mastering these patterns is essential for core network functions, chiefly forecasting future load to pre-empt congestion and imputing missing values caused by sensor failures or transmission errors to ensure data continuity. While deeply connected, forecasting and imputation have historically evolved as separate sub-fields. The dominant paradigm, Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs), while effective, are often specialized, computationally intensive, and exhibit limited generalization. Concurrently, adapting large pre-trained language models (LLMs) offers a powerful alternative for sequence modeling, yet existing approaches provide weak structural guidance, leading to unstable convergence and a narrow focus on forecasting. To bridge these gaps, we propose U-STS-LLM, a unified framework built on a spatio-temporally steered LLM. Our core innovation is a Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Attention Bias Generator that synthesizes a persistent functional graph with transient nodal states to explicitly steer the LLM's attention. Coupled with a partially frozen backbone tuned via Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and a Gated Adaptive Fusion mechanism, the model achieves stable, parameter-efficient adaptation. Trained under a unified multi-task objective, U-STS-LLM learns a holistic data representation. Extensive experiments on real-world cellular datasets demonstrate that U-STS-LLM establishes new state-of-the-art performance in both long-horizon forecasting and high-missing-rate imputation, while maintaining remarkable training efficiency and stability, offering a novel blueprint for harnessing foundation models in structured, non-linguistic domains.

Yichen Zhang, Jun Li

School of Information Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, CHINA.

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Time Series Imputation LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting Wireless Communications Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 12, 2026cs.LG

EpiCastBench: Datasets and Benchmarks for Multivariate Epidemic Forecasting

The increasing adoption of data-driven decision-making in public health has established epidemic forecasting as a critical area of research. Recent advances in multivariate forecasting models better capture complex temporal dependencies than conventional univariate approaches, which model individual series independently. Despite this potential, the development of robust epidemic forecasting methods is constrained by the lack of high-quality benchmarks comprising diverse multivariate datasets across infectious diseases and geographical regions. To address this gap, we present EpiCastBench, a large-scale benchmarking framework featuring 40 curated (correlated) multivariate epidemic datasets. These publicly available datasets span a wide range of infectious diseases and exhibit diverse characteristics in terms of temporal granularity, series length, and sparsity. We analyze these datasets to identify their global features and structural patterns. To ensure reproducibility and fair comparison, we establish standardized evaluation settings, including a unified forecasting horizon, consistent preprocessing pipelines, diverse performance metrics, and statistical significance testing. By leveraging this framework, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 15 multivariate forecasting models spanning statistical baselines to state-of-the-art deep learning and foundation models. All datasets and code are publicly available on Kaggle (https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/aimltsf/epicastbench) and GitHub (https://github.com/aimltsf/EpiCastBench).

Madhurima Panja, Danny D'Agostino, Huitao Li +2

Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi · Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Epidemic Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 11, 2026cs.LG

AxiomOcean: Forecasting the Three-Dimensional Structure of the Upper Ocean

Short-term ocean forecast skill depends strongly on the three-dimensional ocean structure of the upper ocean, which governs stratification, subsurface heat storage, and the response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing. However, AI ocean forecasting models often fail to preserve this vertical structure, resulting in over-smoothed subsurface features and weak physical consistency under strong forcing. Here, we present AxiomOcean, a global AI ocean forecasting model that explicitly represents vertical hierarchy and cross-layer dependence within the water column. By combining a fully three-dimensional encoder-backbone-decoder architecture with surface atmospheric forcing, AxiomOcean jointly predicts upper-ocean temperature, salinity, and three-dimensional currents at global 1/12° resolution down to 643 m depth. In 10-day forecasts, AxiomOcean outperforms an advanced AI comparison model across variables and lead times, reducing day-1 RMSE by approximately 20 to 35% while maintaining higher anomaly correlation. The gain is not achieved through excessive smoothing: AxiomOcean better preserves eddy kinetic energy, temperature and salinity variance. Its advantage also extends through the water column and remains evident across the equatorial Pacific, Kuroshio Extension, and Southern Ocean, yielding a more realistic reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content. These results show that explicitly preserving upper-ocean three-dimensional structure can improve both forecast accuracy and physical fidelity in AI ocean prediction.

Sensen Wu, Yifan Chen, Guantao Pu +9

School of Earth Sciences & Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · The State Key Lab of Brain-Machine Intelligence, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China +1

Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Set Prediction for Next-Day Active Fire Forecasting

Accurate next-day active fire forecasts can support early warning, disaster response, forest risk assessment, and downstream estimation of fire-related carbon emissions. Existing machine learning approaches to wildfire forecasting typically predict wildfire danger or fire probability on kilometre-scale daily grids, which is useful for regional warning but does not directly represent localized fire events. We propose Wildfire Ignition Set Predictor (WISP), a query-based model that reformulates next-day active fire forecasting as point-set prediction. From 48 hours of covariates including meteorology, satellite vegetation products, static land, and fire history, WISP predicts a fixed-size ranked set of future active fire cluster centres on a 375 m grid across globally distributed regions. The model is trained end-to-end with Hungarian matching; to address the conflicting roles of the classification score in assignment, ranking, and query activation, we use asymmetric classification-localization weighting in matching and loss. We further construct a globally distributed, hourly, multi-source benchmark for this task. On a held-out test set spanning fire regions worldwide, the best WISP variant achieves 38.2% average precision (AP) for ranked fire-centre detections, covers 53.4% of fire cluster mass weighted by fire radiative power (FRP), and localizes 54.1% of observed clusters within 5 km. These results establish sparse set prediction as a viable formulation for high-resolution wildfire forecasting and provide a benchmark for future work in this regime.

Yuchen Bai, Georgios Athanasiou, Xin Yu +4

Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany · Orion Lab, National Technical University of Athens · University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA +4

Wildfire Forecasting Set Prediction Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting Structured Prediction

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Stable Long-Horizon PDE Forecasting via Latent Structured Spectral Propagators

Long-horizon forecasting of time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) is critical for characterizing the sustained evolution of physical systems. While neural operators have emerged as efficient surrogates, they typically learn implicit finite-time transitions from discrete observations. When deployed autoregressively, such propagators often suffer from rapid error accumulation and dynamic drift. To address this, we propose a neural forecasting framework that reformulates PDE rollout as learning a Structured Spectral Propagator (SSP) in a propagation-oriented latent space. Following an analysis-propagation-synthesis design, our framework: (i) maps physical states into a shared, time-consistent spatial representation; (ii) projects this space into a compact propagation state to isolate recurrent dynamics from fine-grained spatial details, thereby decoupling reconstruction fidelity from rollout regularity; and (iii) evolves retained spectral modes using a frequency-conditioned linear backbone complemented by a nonlinear spectral closure to account for truncated interactions. This explicit structuring endows the propagator with a strong inductive bias for coherent modal evolution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SSP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing relative

L_2

errors by up to 48.9% and exhibiting improved stability in temporal extrapolation beyond the supervised horizon.

Xiaoxiao Lu, Ye Yuan, Jiahao Shi

School of AIA, Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Latent Dynamics Modeling PDE Surrogate Modeling PDE Operator Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spectral Methods

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Dimensional Balance Improves Large Scale Spatiotemporal Prediction Performance

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

Jing Chen, Shixiang Pan, Yujie Fan +3

School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, China · Key Laboratory of New Industrial Internet Control Technology, Hangzhou, 310018, China · College of Economics, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, 314423, China

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 11, 2026cs.CV

PixelFlowCast: Latent-Free Precipitation Nowcasting via Pixel Mean Flows

Precipitation nowcasting aims to forecast short-term radar echo sequences for extreme weather warning, where both prediction fidelity and inference efficiency are critical for real-world deployment. However, diffusion-based models, despite their strong generative capability, suffer from slow inference due to multi-step sampling trajectories, limiting their practical usability. Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) improves efficiency via straightened trajectories, but relies on latent space compression, which inevitably discards high-frequency physical details and degrades fine-grained prediction quality. To address these limitations, we propose PixelFlowCast, a two-stage probabilistic forecasting framework that achieves both high-efficiency and high-fidelity prediction without latent compression. Specifically, in the first stage, a deterministic model first produces coarse forecasts to capture global evolution trends. In the subsequent stage, the proposed KANCondNet extracts deep spatiotemporal evolution features to provide accurate conditional guidance. Based on this, a latent-free, few-step Pixel Mean Flows (PMF) predictor employs an

x

-prediction mechanism to generate high-quality predictions, effectively preserving fine-grained structures while maintaining fast inference. Experiments on the publicly available SEVIR dataset demonstrate that PixelFlowCast outperforms existing mainstream methods in both prediction accuracy and inference efficiency, particularly for long sequence forecasting, highlighting its strong potential for real-world operational deployment.

Yufeng Zhu, Chunlei Shi, Yongchao Feng +1

Precipitation Forecasting Efficient Inference Spatiotemporal Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting