Supply Chain Optimization

Emergency management assistance programs, such as relief distribution, are essential for delivering necessary supplies to affected communities. However, these programs operate in a decentralized network of local centers that face uncertain local demand and supply dynamics, resulting in inconsistent avail- ability of local services. Redistribution of supplies among these local centers reduces these imbalances, but the centers often make decisions independently, with limited information and disrupted transportation. This study develops CoRe-MARL, a cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework, by formulating a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (Dec-POMDP). We treat each center as an agent that learns a redistribution policy to improve the service in the worst-case region and reduce the service gap across regions while protecting network-wide service. We incorporate a recurrent network that captures evolving supply and demand dynamics without direct observation, while multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) enables centralized training and decentralized execution (CTDE). We evaluate the framework in a simulated environment with diverse trajectories, where exact dynamics are not observed by actors and the MAPPO critic. We compare the recurrent MAPPO with the recurrent independent PPO (IPPO) and a local only heuristic, and find that MAPPO reduces the service gap across local centers and enhances service for the worst-served center while maintaining competitive network-wide service. The recurrent MAPPO also shows consistent performance across diverse trajectory patterns, demonstrating its ability to adapt to evolving dynamics. The findings demonstrate the capability of cooperative learning for decentralized redistribution and improving equitable service under uncertain and evolving dynamics.

We study the strategic design of a two-echelon spare-parts inventory network where evaluating each candidate topology requires an expensive inventory optimization model. The design partitions hundreds of sites into feasible clusters and selects a central replenishment site for each cluster to reduce costs while maintaining service levels. Because the optimizer favors candidates with high predicted savings, it can exploit optimistic surrogate errors. We develop a conservative framework combining a graph neural network ensemble, variable neighborhood search, and set-partitioning recombination. The surrogate is trained on exact cluster evaluations, while a lower quantile of ensemble-predicted savings guides the search to limit optimism. Clusters found during the search are recombined through set partitioning using surrogate-based objective coefficients. The resulting network is evaluated with the exact inventory model, and only this evaluation is used to report performance. In a case study of 246 fulfillment centers in Amazon's North American network, the framework improves combined savings by 30.5% over an optimization baseline based entirely on exact cluster evaluations, while maintaining approximately 99.8% service across six independent replications. Under equal computational budgets, graph-surrogate-guided search achieves higher mean exact savings than a tabular alternative under both scoring schemes. Conservative scoring improves mean savings for both surrogate classes and reduces the share of final-network clusters overestimated by the graph surrogate from 68% to 28%. Predictive and ranking accuracy deteriorate among search-generated candidates with high surrogate scores, indicating that random holdout performance can incompletely characterize surrogate quality during optimization.

Hydrogen supply chains are expected to play a central role in future low-carbon energy systems by enabling renewable energy integration, long-duration storage, and decarbonization of industrial and transportation sectors. However, their operation is challenged by renewable generation variability, electricity price fluctuations, uncertain hydrogen demand, and engineering constraints associated with electrolyzers, energy storage, and grid interaction. As hydrogen infrastructure expands toward commercial deployment, operational strategies must balance economic performance, reliability, and sustainability under dynamic and uncertain conditions. This paper investigates and compares four control approaches for a renewable-powered hydrogen supply chain: a rule-based controller (RBC), model predictive control (MPC), reinforcement learning without forecasts (RL-NF), and reinforcement learning with forecast-augmented observations (RL-F). All methods are evaluated within a unified, physically realistic framework incorporating electrolyzer minimum-load and ramp-rate constraints, battery and hydrogen storage dynamics, grid import limits, and consistent economic assumptions, enabling a fair comparison under identical operating conditions. Simulation results show that MPC achieves the highest economic performance by exploiting short-term forecasts to coordinate storage, reduce grid dependence, and improve efficiency. RL-NF demonstrates robust and competitive performance without future information, highlighting the capability of learning-based methods to discover effective policies from experience. RL-F does not consistently outperform its no-forecast counterpart, suggesting that forecast uncertainty and increased state complexity can limit forecast-augmented learning. The results provide guidance for selecting operational control strategies in future hydrogen energy systems.

Environmental controversies in global supply chains pose significant risks for global buyers. This study examines whether overseas suppliers' exposure to buyers' artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled environmental governance reduces supplier environmental controversies. Drawing on organizational information processing theory and signaling theory, we investigate how suppliers' exposure to AI-enabled governance influences their environmental controversies and the institutional contingencies under which this effect varies. Using text analysis to measure buyer AI-enabled environmental governance, we analyze panel data on 2,505 suppliers of U.S.-listed firms across 41 countries from 2020 to 2024 with multidimensional fixed-effects models. We find that suppliers' exposure to buyer AI-enabled environmental governance is negatively associated with supplier environmental controversies in the following year. This negative relationship is stronger in supplier countries with higher AI readiness and regulatory quality. The study contributes to research on AI-enabled sustainability governance and sustainable supply chain risk management.

The software supply chain has become an increasingly exposed attack surface because of its reliance on intricate yet fragile dependencies. Existing defenses such as GitHub Dependabot often raise many false alerts because their coarse-grained matching cannot determine whether a vulnerable dependency is actually exploitable. Security analysts typically spend substantial time assessing vulnerability exploitability case by case. Recent LLM agents have emerged as promising candidates for this task given their advanced capabilities in coding and cybersecurity, yet no existing benchmark evaluates them on it. Prior benchmarks target zero-day settings, where agents detect and exploit previously unknown vulnerabilities. In contrast, software supply chain security focuses on how known vulnerabilities in upstream dependencies affect downstream projects. This requires agents to reason across repositories and determine whether an upstream vulnerability is exploitable in the downstream project. To address this gap, we introduce VEX-Bench, the first benchmark for evaluating LLM agents' ability to assess the exploitability of software supply chain vulnerabilities. It contains 75 real-world cases mined from GitHub and labeled by security experts, covering Python, Java, and Go. We evaluate nine models across three agent harnesses. While GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.6 reach approximately 80% F1 on binary vulnerability-status classification, only GPT-5.5 surpasses 70% macro-F1 on fine-grained justification classification. This gap highlights the challenge of moving beyond binary exploitability assessment to identifying fine-grained exploitability reasons. Code and data: https://github.com/steven1518/vex-bench

AI coding assistants now select, install, and configure software, and attackers have exploited that position through invented package names, compromised maintainer accounts, and manipulated repository text. In response, the supply-chain community publishes machine-checkable trust signals: software bills of materials, signed releases, build provenance attestations, and declared official channels. Whether coding assistants read or act on those signals has not been measured for any of these classes on research software. We pre-registered and ran a controlled study on six open-source research software projects (three HPC, three quantum computing) drawn from an 87-project corpus, with protocol, seed, panel, and analysis plan deposited with a DOI before any trial. W created nine modified copies for each project: no signal, one per signal class, two with a signature or attestation from the wrong issuer, one with all four signals, and one reproducing documented conflicts in the project's own metadata. Three models under two ways of operating an assistant, with and without an approval step, gave 1,920 registered trials, plus a supplement on three frontier models. We scored behavior from container logs rather than from what the assistant said, and recorded the cost of every trial. Verification was rare under every condition: in 9 of 1,920 registered trials (0.5%), the assistant opened any provenance signal before installing in 0 of 384 control trials, and no trial ran a verification command, so signal presence had no measurable effect. We drew three conclusions: publishing signals is necessary but not sufficient; price did not buy verification (the model that verified most often costs $0.10 per trial; the most capable, at$1.00, verified nothing); verification must be built into the program that runs the assistant. We release the per-trial cost ledger, the protocol, and every log.

Retail supply chain operations rely on coupled decision modules that must adapt as requirements evolve. LLMs offer a natural-language interface for this task, but existing methods primarily focus on individual optimization models. Extending them to heterogeneous decision pipelines is challenging because a requirement may admit multiple intervention paths with different downstream effects. We formulate requirement-driven adaptation as the joint selection of an intervention route and an admissible module-level change, and propose a graph-constrained agentic framework in which domain agents expose admissible reformulation interfaces and a central processor searches over bounded intervention paths. Candidates are validated and compared using downstream KPIs. In collaboration with a large retail partner, we evaluate 100 warehouse requirements elicited from practitioner interviews, with GPT, Qwen, and DeepSeek as base LLMs. Relative to direct LLM reformulation, our framework improves correctness and end-to-end success across all three models, raising end-to-end success from 72--76% to 79--83%.

Modern supply chain operations can require coordinating replenishment across thousands of heterogeneous items under correlated stochastic demand, heterogeneous lead times, and shared fixed ordering costs, yielding observation spaces exceeding $10^4$ dimensions. At this scale, rolling-horizon stochastic mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs) become prohibitively slow, while standard reinforcement learning (RL) methods face increasingly challenging credit assignment in high-dimensional action spaces. We introduce OR-Transformer, a deep reinforcement learning framework for joint replenishment under stochastic demand, with an item-permutation-equivariant Transformer architecture and pathwise-gradient training through the inventory dynamics. Across problem sizes up to 1,024 inventory items, OR-Transformer increasingly outperforms learning-based and rolling-horizon MILP baselines as scale grows. It also reduces online decision-making time by over 4 million times relative to MILP solvers, enabling real-time, large-scale deep RL in supply chain operations.

Semiconductor supply chains face escalating risks from geopolitical tensions, geographic concentration, and rapid technological shifts, yet no scalable system continuously extracts, structures, and prioritizes risk intelligence from public corporate disclosures. We present an end-to-end pipeline that retrieves corporate documents for semiconductor companies and uses large language models (LLMs) to extract the risks and opportunities they describe. It organizes these into a knowledge graph linking each item to its category, sources, and related events, then merges duplicates and ranks them with a three-layer mechanism combining an algorithmic formula, an LLM relevance adjustment, and expert validation. Applied to five companies across the value chain, the pipeline produces 76,207 scored items, of which an independent check finds 92.6% valid. The automated rankings match expert judgment at an average Spearman correlation of 0.55 for risks and 0.72 for opportunities, and the resulting matrices identify trade restrictions as the dominant cross-company risk.

Long-horizon agentic tasks go beyond chaining short tasks over more interaction turns. Their evolving dynamic environments and long-range dependencies require Large Language Models (LLMs) to continually explore, learn from experience, and adapt their policies over thousands of steps. We introduce E-Commerce Bench, the first open-source benchmark that integrates multi-round counterpart negotiation and dynamic events into a year-long business operation. Over a 365-day year, an LLM agent concurrently runs multiple online stores, researching the market, negotiating with suppliers to source inventory, optimizing sales strategies, fulfilling orders, handling returns, and managing cash flow to maximize its end-of-year total assets. To construct a realistic merchant-side operating environment, the product and supplier data are derived from a real e-commerce platform, while a year-long calendar of promotions, natural disasters, and supply-chain shocks continually reshapes demand. For reproducibility, both sides of the market are deterministic: customer purchases and returns follow a fixed demand model, while a negotiation kernel determines supplier pricing, concessions, and decisions, with an LLM used only to verbalize them. We evaluate 18 frontier models across seven dimensions, including year-end assets, and find that no single model dominates. GPT-5.6 Sol earns the most, growing the 100,000 opening stake into 1,431,425, yet it ranks 16th of 18 on fraud avoidance and trails Fable5 in operational efficiency. Among open-weight models, Qwen3.8-Max-Preview leads with 416,252, 38% above GLM 5.2 (high), and achieves the strongest learning over the horizon, progressively bargaining down prices across repeated orders. Our code is available at https://github.com/QwenLM/E-CommerceBench.

Detecting or attributing a supply-chain disruption is not the same as selecting the intervention that maximizes recoverable net value. We present CriticalSCM-Bench v1, a controlled synthetic benchmark with causal ground truth, paired factual/counterfactual rollouts, and an explicit net-value objective. Relative to a full-information train-selected static benchmark, LambdaMART improves median normalized net value by 5.7--16.2%, with paired statistical support on the semiconductor and critical-material archetypes but not on digital infrastructure. On digital infrastructure, a domain-informed constant-buffer policy remains stronger, showing that greater model complexity is not uniformly justified. Across partial and delayed settings, LambdaMART retains 33--75% of full-clamp value. Stress tests further show that intervention fidelity, timing, cost, and held-out disruptions can alter policy ordering. Critical materials show the weakest out-of-distribution retention. Separately, a guarded explanation study over 540 generations preserves every fixed intervention decision after deterministic validation and template fallback, although exact wording remains unstable. Within this controlled setting, the results identify regimes in which adaptive ranking adds value and those in which simpler structural policies remain preferable.

Inventory and distribution planning in Physical Internet networks requires coordinating factory-hub assignments, factory supply, lateral transshipment among collaborative hubs, retailer deliveries, and shortages. The problem combines discrete assignment decisions with interdependent continuous flows, while uncertain operating costs make robust planning more difficult. This study formulates deterministic and min-max regret models for a three-echelon network of factories, hubs, and retailers and develops a graph neural network-guided genetic algorithm (GNN-GA) for the assignment decisions. The GNN estimates hub-specific factory-selection probabilities that are used to construct the initial GA population and adapt mutation according to prediction uncertainty. Each previously unseen candidate assignment is evaluated by solving the remaining continuous-flow problem to LP optimality. Simulated annealing, a standard GA, and GNN-GA are compared on 15 instances using matched random seeds and fixed limits on distinct assignment evaluations. Because the evaluation budgets for test Instances 13-15 are smaller than the nominal population size, these experiments primarily assess the quality of learned initialization rather than multi-generation evolutionary search. A separate 400-evaluation experiment on exact test Instance 13 permits three complete offspring generations and a partial fourth pass, with GNN-GA outperforming GA in all 10 matched runs. Three independently generated exact-solvable instances provide a separate test of transfer. Ablation results show that learned initialization provides most of the improvement, while entropy-guided mutation has a smaller, instance-dependent effect. Per-instance solution times include GNN inference and search but exclude model training and one-time model setup.

This paper presents a methodological framework for real-time climate risk assessment using data-driven nowcasting techniques to enhance supply chain resilience in Colombian agricultural contexts. Climate variability in Colombia, characterized by irregular rainfall, temperature fluctuations, and recurrent extreme events, has a direct impact on agricultural production and logistics, particularly for time sensitive crops. The proposed approach integrates short term climate forecasting based on historical meteorological observations with supply chain risk modeling to establish a conceptual early warning system architecture. A prototype implementation developed in a controlled computational environment demonstrates the feasibility of the framework using historical meteorological and agricultural time series derived from official statistics and reanalysis products, without reliance on satellite imagery or computer vision components. The methodology addresses the integration of climate nowcasting with supply chain decision making through explicit risk mapping, threshold-based categorization, and stakeholder-oriented risk signals. Results from synthetic and historical data experiments indicate that short term precipitation nowcasts can be translated into actionable risk indicators for agricultural supply chains, supporting anticipatory decisions related to inventory, sourcing, and transport.

Agent skills, bundles of instructions and resources that an LLM agent loads on demand, form an emerging supply chain where a single poisoned skill can persistently compromise every agent that installs it. However, existing skill attacks either fire on every request or rely on fine-tuned weights or multiple skills, leaving a conditional and low-cost backdoor unexplored. In this work, we present ElasticBack, an effective conditional single-skill backdoor that plants a rule R in the skill document and a benign-looking trigger T in the user query, so the malicious payload fires only when both co-occur. ElasticBack binds the two sides through a trigger-as-switch construction, generating R via semantic-anchored rule injection. It then freezes R and evolves T against it with a stealth-constrained genetic search, so that effectiveness and stealth are optimized, keeping the backdoor weight-free and dormant on benign inputs. Extensive experiments across three target behaviors (50 skills each) and four agent LLMs show that ElasticBack attains a high attack success rate at a near-zero false-positive rate with preserved clean accuracy, transfers across models, and evades deployment-time defenses. These results motivate stronger defenses for the skill supply chain.

Can supply-chain AI move beyond isolated decision modules toward unified operational planning? A complete replenishment plan specifies which products each location carries, which upstream facility supplies it, how often it is replenished, and how deliveries are routed. These decisions are operationally coupled: the selected assortment changes the demand and load passed to later stages; source assignment and replenishment frequency reshape the delivery requests; and route feasibility and cost, in turn, determine the system value of the earlier choices. Yet in modern supply chains, these decisions are often handled by separate departments and optimized through separate systems, which can lead to stockouts, inventory exposure, and avoidable transportation. We propose SCOPE: Supply-Chain Operations through Coupled Policies for End-to-End Coordination, a composite policy model that represents supply-chain entities as tokens, contextualizes them through a shared operational representation, and maps each token type to the corresponding decision interface. Each decision builds on the partial plan formed by earlier decisions while the completed plan is evaluated using a shared system-level utility. We instantiate this framework in urban fresh-retail replenishment, where service frequency, assortment, capacity pressure, and road-network routing interact strongly, and evaluate it on real operational data from Dingdong and JD.com, two large-scale supply chains operating at different replenishment echelons. Across both settings, SCOPE consistently outperforms methods that optimize each decision stage separately, as well as practice-oriented baselines commonly used in supply-chain operations. These results show that learning and coordinating cross-department operational couplings lead to more effective end-to-end supply-chain decisions.

As LLM agents move from decision support to autonomous procurement, firms need to know whether delegated negotiators create value, divide it predictably, and avoid money-losing contracts. We study this in a canonical supply chain bargaining problem: a buyer with private demand information negotiates a quantity-payment contract with an uninformed seller. We benchmark nine LLMs from OpenAI, Google, and Alibaba against a validated Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium across 9,840 LLM-to-LLM negotiations. First, capability governs value creation. Agents agree in 98.9% of negotiations and capture 95.4% of first-best surplus undiscounted, but average 2.98 rounds against the benchmark's 1.25, and this delay erodes 21-34% of surplus. Capability also governs reliability: baseline models accept individually irrational contracts in 19.2% of cases, versus 0.0-0.6% at mid-tier and flagship, making automated profit verification the binding guardrail below that threshold. Second, surplus capture is relational. Provider identity predicts who captures surplus better than capability rank: self-play buyer shares average 40% for OpenAI, 50% for Google, and 70% for Alibaba's Qwen, an ordering that survives restricted communication and no discounting. Reversing which provider sells moves the division by 7-18 percentage points, and the capable Qwen flagship is the weakest cross-family seller: vendor choice is a first-order distributional decision. Third, the prompt is a strategic lever. Delegation separates the principal's economic patience from the agent's prompted strategic patience, a free deployment choice that is the single strongest driver of surplus division (90% of explained variance). Together these establish an equilibrium-referenced audit of AI agents along three dimensions: discounted efficiency, distributional profile, and operational reliability.

The semiconductor sector faces a dual transition: scaling manufacturing execution through Artificial Intelligence (AI) while satisfying stringent sustainability mandates, such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This paper presents a scoping review of 1,465 documents indexed in Web of Science and Scopus, spanning AI-integrated metrology, supply chain ESG, and federated industrial data spaces. Network analysis reveals a highly fragmented "core-periphery" knowledge structure, emphasizing a critical structural hole between AI-driven process optimization and downstream sustainability governance. To close these gaps, this study proposes a 6-layer Safe and Sustainable by Design (SSbD) architecture grounded in a System of Systems (SoS) paradigm. By establishing distinct "grid-to-core" and "standards-through-supply-chain" integration pathways, the proposed framework demonstrates how virtual metrology (VM), localized federated learning, and defensive RegTech mechanisms can build provenance-aware data fabrics. Ultimately, this architecture positions regulatory compliance as a driver for innovation, enabling secure, climate-neutral, and circular value chains in semiconductor manufacturing.

For years, supply chain planning at e-commerce firms has operated as a collection of isolated projects. Each planning task from static network planning to dynamic warehouse assortment planning requires analysts to spend weeks building models from scratch, calibrating and persuading executives to act on outputs they cannot verify. Three barriers drive this: bespoke models proliferate because standardization is difficult (operational fragmentation); once unified, the combinatorial scale of millions of SKUs, thousands of nodes, and intricate routing logic exceeds what solvers can handle within a tight window (computational intractability); and a mathematically optimal solution still fails to be implemented if the executives do not trust it (implementation hurdle). To bridge this gap, we propose and implement the Simulation-Propose-then-OR-Dispose method, deployed as JD.com's NetSim platform. The central insight is decoupling: simulation proposes by generating and evaluating the full set of operationally valid candidate paths-absorbing all idiosyncratic business logic, while an integer program disposes by selecting the globally optimal subset. Computationally, matrix-vectorized CPU/GPU accelerated simulation achieves a 10-100 times speedup over serial methods, and a list scheduling algorithm reduces coupled-order processing from hours to minutes. Operationally, we establish a closed loop via an intelligent diagnosis engine. Since 2025, NetSim has optimized end to-end services for over 20,000 suppliers, the cross-regional fulfillment rate dropped from 6.1% to 4.9%, and the average monthly carbon reduction is approximately 5,745 tCO2e. SPORD moves simulation from monitoring to active planning. The transparent outputs turn skeptical executives into engaged collaborators, and the modular architecture ensures that the next planning requires just configuration, not reconstruction.

AI artifacts move through a multi-platform supply chain, spanning datasets and models on Hugging Face and applications on GitHub. While each artifact carries a license whose obligations should propagate through redistribution, no study has yet measured whether those obligations survive the chain or are stripped and replaced as artifacts move downstream. We trace 232,270 dataset$\rightarrow$model$\rightarrow$application chains and quantify two forms of license laundering: when artifacts with no declared license acquire definitive labels downstream, and when one declared license category replaces another during redistribution. We find that 62.3% of chains pass through at least one artifact with no declared license (concentrated in a small set of foundational datasets), and that every obligation-bearing license category falls below 7% end-to-end survival while the Permissive category reaches 95.1%. Based on these findings, we provide actionable recommendations for practitioners, model publishers, rights holders, and platform owners.

The report envisions a decade in which drones move goods, medical supplies, and information at a scale comparable to national infrastructure investments like highways and the electric grid. Potential applications include natural disaster detection drones that spot wildfire sources within minutes, medical supply chains that bypass ground congestion to reach rural hospitals, and nationwide fleets that continuously inspect bridges and power lines. Realizing this future, however, requires closing what report authors call a "capability gap," where hardware and aspirations are outpacing the software and systems needed to operate safely at scale. The report identifies twelve technical challenges that must be addressed to realize the transformative potential of drone technology: Scaling to millions of drones; AI intelligence and assurance; Edge-cloud continuum and real-time coordination; AI autonomy and agentic systems; Data, training, and validation infrastructure; Critical infrastructure protection; Building reliable fleets from non-deterministic agents; Trust, security, and distributed authentication; Next-generation drone networks; Human-AI partnership and scalable insight; Standards, certification, and regulation; and Workforce development and education. These twelve challenges and proposed approaches to them form the basis of the report, laying out a multifaceted path forward for the evolution of done technology.

Supplier lead time forecasting is a central input to material requirements planning, inventory optimization, and supply chain risk management. However, many industrial lead time datasets are naturally right-censored: at the time forecasts are required, some orders have not yet arrived. Standard regression and classification approaches discard this information, while conventional survival models require task-specific modeling. We propose LeadTime-ICL (LT-ICL), a censoring-aware in-context learning model for probabilistic lead time forecasting. LT-ICL combines a transformer backbone with a conditional normalizing-flow head, producing a full predictive distribution over lead times. The model is pretrained on synthetic right-censored lead time tasks, enabling in-context adaptation to new industrial datasets without task-specific parameter updates. We provide theoretical support for this formulation by showing that excess CRPS is bounded by prior misspecification and amortized approximation errors, providing clear direction for improving forecasting performance. We evaluate LT-ICL on 24 proprietary supply-chain datasets spanning seven industries. LT-ICL achieves the lowest point-forecasting error on 15 of the 24 datasets, and the lowest probabilistic forecasting error on 14 datasets, yielding the best average rank across both. These results support right-censored probabilistic forecasting as a practical formulation for supplier lead time prediction and demonstrate that pretrained in-context models can provide accurate, low-adaptation-cost forecasting for industrial planning systems.

Pretrained machine learning (ML) models help developers build ML-intensive software systems without training models from scratch. However, model repositories often provide incomplete machine-readable documentation about model provenance, licenses, datasets, limitations, and external references, creating transparency and governance gaps across the AI supply chain. Artificial Intelligence Bills of Materials (AIBOMs) address these gaps by documenting AI artifacts, including models, metadata, licenses, datasets, model-card information, and external references. Taking public Hugging Face (HF) model repositories as a case study, this paper empirically investigates AIBOM completeness, defined as the extent to which repositories provide AIBOM-relevant information for machine-readable AI supply-chain documentation. We examine approximately 97.5K AIBOM artifacts to assess the extent to which generated AIBOMs: (i) contain required structural and metadata fields, (ii) represent model identity, license, and external-reference information, (iii) capture model-card documentation such as datasets, limitations, safety-risk assessment, and environmental information, and (iv) vary in documentation coverage across repository and artifact characteristics such as task, license availability, dataset declaration, model family, and paper reference. Results indicate that generated AIBOMs provide complete coverage of required AIBOM structure but limited AI-specific documentation completeness. Required fields are fully represented, but model-card, metadata, responsible-use, environmental, limitation, and meaningful-description fields remain weakly represented or missing across generated artifacts. Our findings motivate improved model-card practices, repository-level traceability, and automated AIBOM validation to advance the generation and adoption of more complete AIBOMs.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful, differentiable class of learning models for graph-structured systems. Their ability to generalize across topologies opens the prospect of a surrogate for combined structural and parametric optimization, which classical metamodels cannot offer. Supply chains are a natural target, yet the use of GNN surrogates for supply chain problems is largely unexplored. This paper lays the foundation, presents initial steps, and discusses key research directions. As a foundation, we formulate the problem and create a large public training dataset of programmatically generated supply chain graphs with input parameters and steady-state performance metrics obtained using our SupplyNetPy simulation library. As initial steps, we explore GNN architectures that work well as surrogates for node- and network-level predictions, and analyze their accuracy-compute trade-off against simulation. Most importantly, we outline the exciting directions this opens, namely gradient-based optimization over topology, fast design-space exploration, and sensitivity analysis.

The increasing adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) as AI components in modern software systems introduces distinct security risks to the software supply chain. While many considerations and safety mechanisms are in place for components of the traditional software supply chain, the recent rapid adoption of AI components and platforms has overlooked these hard learned lessons. Selecting and integrating AI models without clear guidance on how these choices affect system security may leave applications vulnerable to threats, such as malicious components, data leakage, and unintended behavior. The goal of this study is to understand practitioners' decision making process and security considerations in selecting and integrating AI components through an exploratory semi-structured interview study. Toward this goal, we conducted semistructured interviews with 22 software developers, architects, and AI practitioners across diverse organizations about how they integrate AI components into their software. Our analysis finds that practitioners' model selection is predominantly driven by functional criteria, including performance, accuracy, cost, and specific features, e.g., tool calling or multimodal support, while security is rarely considered as an evaluation criterion. We observe a consistent lack of security concern throughout the AI component integration process, with established software supply chain lessons overlooked or ignored. The industry is repeating the historically costly mistakes of early software dependency management, prioritizing rapid reuse and availability over security and provenance. We distill our findings into actionable recommendations for AI adopters, model providers, and researchers, advocating for a proactive, security-by-design approach that integrates security evaluation into component selection and sustains it throughout the software development lifecycle.

LLM agents are increasingly evaluated on multi-week decision tasks in which the state that drives cost is never directly observed. On such tasks the final cost cannot say why an agent failed: it may have misread the world, or read it correctly and still failed to act (the knowing-doing gap). Existing evaluations cannot separate these two failures; their reference policies either read privileged information the agent never sees, or are missing altogether. We introduce STOCKTAKE, a 26-week supply-chain replenishment benchmark built as a factored partially observable Markov decision process with six hidden factor processes, designed so that a fair reference policy is computable: an exact Bayes filter per factor drives a rollout policy on the identical observation stream the agent receives. Scoring each run between a symptom-blind base-stock floor (0) and this oracle (1) yields a skill score, and grading each week's written rationale yields a stated-belief detection lag and a knowing-doing rate, so state estimation and control are measured separately. On fifty seeds with curated stress profiles, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.4, DeepSeek-V4-Pro, and Grok 4.5 detect 84-88% of hidden failures, typically within a week of onset, yet span skill scores from 0.62 to -0.23: two of the four end below the symptom-blind floor while naming factors slightly faster than the two that beat it. The failure has two faces. Where stress persists, 34-43% of correctly diagnosed stress weeks still end in stockout for every model, a rate that partly reflects the severity of the weeks models notice. That rate also runs opposite to skill: the two models under the floor stock out least on diagnosed weeks, so under-response is only one face of the gap, and their traces point to the other, responses whose cost exceeds what they protect. STOCKTAKE measures both directions of that failure.

Agricultural supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions through linked biophysical and economic systems. We develop an AI-powered tool that integrates economic models (GTAP) with biophysical models (APSIM) to analyze supply chain shocks, enabling policymakers and market participants to assess cross-disciplinary impacts through queries and responses written in natural language.

Modern supply chains span diverse operational environments, ranging from e-commerce distribution networks to customized production-to-order manufacturing lines. Across these settings, operational efficiency depends on coordinating two highly interdependent stages: order preparation and downstream delivery. Although these stages are traditionally managed in isolation, real-world fulfillment systems must satisfy stringent delivery expectations under dynamic stochastic order arrivals. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Dynamic Order Fulfillment Problem (DOFP), a new problem class unifying logistical challenges previously studied separately. We model DOFP as a Markov decision process whose state and decision spaces are partitioned into preparation and delivery sub-spaces, linked by synchronization constraints. While recent approaches attempt to optimize both fulfillment stages simultaneously over myopic rolling horizons, our framework isolates and optimizes the downstream delivery policy, treating preparation strictly as a state-level constraint filter. To solve this, we develop the Decomposition-Driven Framework with Value Function Approximation (DDF-VFA), which utilizes a novel policy-level decomposition. This design partitions the search into a delivery-stage master problem and a preparation-stage compatibility subproblem, iteratively refined via feedback loops. DDF-VFA executes this strategy by combining a large-neighborhood search over partial delivery decisions with a neural-network value function approximation for the cost-to-go. Numerical illustrations on two example variants using real-world datasets show that DDF-VFA consistently outperforms benchmarks that optimize the two stages independently or jointly without decomposition. Finally, the framework naturally scales to accommodate additional real-world complexities such as batched or multi-stage preparation.

This paper introduces SupplyNetPy, an open-source, well-documented Python library for modeling and discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks with arbitrary multi-echelon structures. It supports multiple replenishment policies, perishable inventory, node disruptions, and stochastic demand and lead times. All components are extensible via inheritance. Users describe a supply chain as a graph with node and link attributes, while the library handles simulation, providing logs and extensive node and network level performance reports. This paper presents the motivation, design, key features, and architecture of SupplyNetPy, along with detailed validation results (against analytical benchmarks, a commercial tool, and a published case study). A key motivation behind SupplyNetPy's development is programmatic generation and simulation of complex models, enabling design-space exploration, what-if analysis, training data generation, and supply chain digital twins.

Agent skills package reusable operational knowledge for Large Language Model (LLM) agents, yet as they grow in scope, they become dependency-bearing artifacts whose identities, versions, and provenance remain implicit. This opacity already causes duplicated dependencies and inconsistent installations, exposing a gap that dependency management has yet to close. We introduce Agent Skill Supply Chains (ASSCs) to characterize mixed skill-package-service dependency graphs and help close this gap. Borrowing from Software Bill of Materials (SBOMs), we design SkillDepAnalyzer to capture natural-language dependency evidence and model skills as dependency-bearing artifacts. On the SKILL-DEP benchmark, SkillDepAnalyzer recovers skill metadata and dependency graphs accurately and comprehensively, substantially outperforming an LLM-based baseline and package-centric SBOM tools. Applying SkillDepAnalyzer to over 1.43 million skills, we obtain ASSCs and explore their structural diversity and security signals. We find four structural patterns: skill metadata is activation-ready but governance-poor; dependency graphs span skill, package, and service dependencies with concentrated reuse; recursive skill reuse expands dependency graphs and creates hidden package inventory; and skill dependency clusters form around related workflows. We also find that inspecting a skill alone misses security-relevant signals hiding in its dependencies. By analyzing ASSCs, we identify and report known malicious skills persisting in ASSCs to their developers. Based on these findings, we recommend typed dependency manifests, first-class dependency-cluster management, risk-warning audit commands for skill infrastructure maintainers, and lockfile-like records for skill developers.

Claw-like AI agents (e.g., OpenClaw) are always-on processes with persistent access to credentials, files, tools, and external services. They take on system-level responsibilities -- installing packages, maintaining state, scheduling subtasks, and mediating I/O -- making security failures far more severe than in other agents. Yet existing benchmarks focus on model responses and tool calls, leaving cross-component failure modes largely unmeasured. We adopt a computer-system analogy: treating a Claw-like agent as an agentic computer system whose gateway runtime plays an OS-like mediation role, whose Skills resemble user-installed applications, and whose Plugins resemble loadable extensions with runtime privileges. Each component has a classical counterpart whose protection mechanisms -- refined over decades of cybersecurity research -- are absent on the agent side. From this perspective, we develop SafeClawArena, a benchmark of 406 adversarial tasks across four attack surfaces (Skill Supply-Chain Integrity, Persistent State Exploitation, Cross-Boundary Data Flow, and Indirect Prompt Injection), executed in containerized replicas of real agent platforms with canary-marked credentials and evaluated via automated taint tracking across nine output channels. We evaluate three platforms (OpenClaw, NemoClaw, SeClaw) and five frontier LLMs. The highest attack success rate reaches 70%; malicious Plugins succeed in 100% of cases regardless of the LLM. SeClaw cuts GPT-5.4's attack success rate from 70% to 22%, partly through utility-security tradeoffs rather than active defenses, while Claude-Opus-4.6 already sits near a 22% floor on every platform. These results expose the inadequacy of current defenses and suggest directions for future hardening. Code and data: https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/SafeClawArena.

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.

Meta-reinforcement learning is a promising approach to multi-objective optimisation because it enables rapid policy adaptation across changing environments and preference settings. However, conventional few-shot methods usually fine-tune from a single shared meta-policy, which can reduce solution diversity and limit exploration of the Pareto front, especially in high-dimensional combinatorial problems such as supply chain optimisation. We propose a population-based Meta-reinforcement learning framework that combines decomposition with evolutionary search in scalarisation weight space. The framework maintains a population of weight vectors, each associated with a distinct meta-policy trained through gradient-based meta-learning, and iteratively refines this population through elitist selection, crossover, and mutation guided by hypervolume and entropy contributions. We evaluate the method in a multi-objective supply chain setting with conflicting economic, environmental, and social goals, and further test its generality on standard reinforcement learning problems. The results show that the proposed approach yields more diverse, better distributed Pareto front approximations, improves cross-task adaptation, increases hypervolume by up to 32% over Meta-multi-objective reinforcement learning in the complex case, and attains the lowest average Hausdorff distance among all compared methods.

Large-scale optimization problems are often solved repeatedly under similar structural conditions, leading to substantial computational overhead. This occurs in applications such as power systems, transportation, and supply chain networks, where the underlying structure is fixed while parameters frequently vary under perturbations. This paper proposes a Learning to Optimize (LTO) framework that accelerates the solution of large-scale general mixed-integer problems by leveraging the concept of a backdoor, i.e., a subset of variables that drive most of the computational complexity. The proposed BIPC framework consists of three phases. Phase I is an identification procedure that discovers a backdoor for a set of instances in the distribution. Phase II uses supervised learning to develop machine learning models that, given an instance, predict values for bounded-domain backdoor variables and intervals for wide-domain backdoor variables. These predictions define a reduced optimization problem where the predictions constrain the backdoor variables, while the other variables remain free. Phase III optimizes this reduced problem and, if necessary, applies a correction step to restore feasibility or the optimality guarantees. Experiments on real-world, large-scale problems show substantial reductions in solution time with only a limited loss in solution quality. The framework enables organizations to solve large-scale optimization problems efficiently in the presence of frequent perturbations, such as unexpected events, demand fluctuations, or operational changes. Because these changes affect parameters rather than the problem structure, BIPC can quickly provide high-quality, feasible solutions, offering a practical approach to integrating machine learning into existing optimization pipelines.

In skill-constrained production-inventory systems, the qualified human capacity available tomorrow depends on training decisions made today: production requires certified workers, certifications decay unless maintained, and training consumes the same scarce worker hours that production needs now. We study a closed-loop skill-constrained model predictive controller that, at every shift, solves a finite-horizon mixed-integer program over production, inventory, backlog, and training, with binary predicted certification, hard production eligibility, and an interpretable terminal value that prices certified-capacity gaps at the horizon boundary; only the first-period action is applied before replanning. On synthetic, seed-controlled SkillChain-Gym scenarios - announced and surprise new-skill shocks, demand shocks, absenteeism, forecast- and availability-quality modes, capacity-boundary and training-rate sweeps, and negative controls - we evaluate the controller against production-only and maintenance-only ablations, static cross-training insurance plans, and a strong reactive heuristic, under an ex-ante locked configuration and paired statistics. The result is regime dependence, not superiority: no policy class dominates. Predictive control helps when skill or labor bottlenecks are forecastable early enough for training to complete; lean static insurance remains hard to beat under surprise shocks, near the demand-capacity boundary, and wherever pre-shock slack makes insurance cheap. Attribution ablations separate certification maintenance, re-acquisition of lapsed certifications, and greenfield skill acquisition. Forecastability, not adaptivity per se, decides when predictive control pays.

The rapid proliferation of machine learning model reuse has transformed the AI ecosystem into a highly interconnected supply chain. Traditional compliance tools and static reports struggle to navigate these massive, multi-hop dependency networks. To address this, we present AI Supply Chain Galaxy (AISCG), an interactive 3D visual analytics system for model provenance and compliance auditing. AISCG maps models into a 3D spatial layout, integrating explicit structural dependencies with a rule-based compliance engine. It supports multi-scale exploration, from global community detection to localized, path-aware lineage tracing. We demonstrate its efficacy through an ecosystem-scale empirical analysis of 908,449 models from Hugging Face. Our findings reveal a concerning landscape: 55.46% of models exhibit compliance risks or metadata conflicts/omissions. We also identified distinct risk patterns, including a 56.67% license omission rate in adapter derivations and an 8.05% "license drift" rate in fine-tuning. Through a case study on the complex Llama model family, we show how AISCG empowers analysts to intuitively trace inherited restrictive terms and identify root causes across deep topological networks, significantly reducing the cognitive load of compliance auditing.

AI agents in supply chains face a fundamental epistemic gap: large language models (LLMs) interpret policies but lack physical grounding, while reinforcement learning (RL) optimizes flows but is semantically blind to unstructured constraints. We introduce REFLECTICHAIN, bridging this gap through a Generative Supply Chain World Model (SC-WM) - encoding heterogeneous supply networks into a 6-dim graph-latent space with physical conservation - and Double-Loop Learning that separates epistemic uncertainty (KL-trust-region-bounded policy adaptation) from aleatoric uncertainty (stochastic latent rollouts). On Semi-Sim, a 10-node semiconductor benchmark with SIR risk propagation, 6 perturbation types, and 10 policy constraint templates, REFLECTICHAIN improves Rationale Consistency Score by 33.0% (p < 0.0001, d = 2.78), maintains 82.3% operability under adversarial shocks, and exhibits anti-fragile behavior (+40.2% gain under moderate pressure). We identify three operational epistemic mechanisms - uncertainty separation, knowledge-boundary detection, and empirical Bayesian policy updating - and discuss five limitation categories.

The coffee supply chain is one of the most complex agri-food networks, marked by geographically dispersed production, multi-tier coordination, and high sensitivity to quality and freshness. While sustainability and digitalization have gained attention, demand forecasting, optimization, and traceability are often treated separately. This study presents a two-phase integrated framework. First, a hybrid CNN-LSTM model is used for demand forecasting. On the public Coffee Chain Sales dataset with chronological 70/15/15 splitting, the model achieves MAE of 22.87 and R^2 of 0.90, outperforming the best deep learning benchmark by ~12% and classical methods by over 30%. In the second phase, the forecasted demand feeds a tri-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model that jointly minimizes cost, minimizes carbon emissions, and maximizes product freshness in a multi-period, multimodal, closed-loop supply chain with circular recovery. Freshness is modeled via exponential decay based on inventory age. Using the epsilon-constraint method, 25 Pareto solutions are obtained. Sensitivity and policy analyses show that balanced sustainability policies can reduce emissions by 22.4% with only a 9.9% cost increase while maintaining near-optimal freshness. Keywords: Coffee supply chain; Deep learning; Demand forecasting; Multi-objective optimization; Circular economy; CNN-LSTM; Mixed-integer linear programming.

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) and LendTech platforms need credit scoring systems that respond to evolving transaction behavior, repayment delays, and active exposure. We propose TRUST-SCF, a transformer-based framework for transaction-level risk prediction and dynamic credit scoring. Each user history is represented as a sequence of transaction tokens containing utilization, repayment delay and transaction position. The main contributions are: (1) a financially aligned attention bias that combines utilization similarity and recency, enabling the model to compare repayment behavior under comparable exposure conditions; (2) continuous repayment-delay prediction in a log-transformed target space, reducing the influence of extreme delays while improving sensitivity to short-delay behavior and (3) a label-efficient credit-scoring pipeline in which the final credit score is not trained using any explicit external credit-score label, but is instead derived from predicted delay, potential risk over simulated utilization, actual unpaid exposure, and nonlinear calibration. Experiments on real transaction data from more than 300,000 transactions show that TRUST-SCF improves delay prediction over sequential baselines and produces scores that are strongly associated with future repayment behavior. These results suggest that TRUST-SCF is a practical framework for adaptive credit scoring and transaction-level risk mitigation in SCF and LendTech environments.

Pharmaceutical supply chains (PSCs) struggle with inventory management (IM) due to unpredictable demand patterns and variable lead times associated with restocking. This complexity is further compounded by the finite shelf lives of pharmaceutical products, which necessitate a delicate balance between adequate stock and minimal waste. These intertwined factors create a complex optimization problem that requires sophisticated inventory strategies to ensure both product availability and PSC efficiency. This study aims to develop an optimal inventory replenishment policy for pharmaceutical products that can handle the stochasticity arising from uncertain demand and variable PSC conditions. The objective is to maximize the profitability of the PSC while maintaining a high patient service level. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and propose a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach, specifically, a hybrid asynchronous advantage actor critic distributed proximal policy optimization (A3C DPPO)algorithm. The A3C DPPO algorithm is tailored to handle the continuous action space inherent in IM. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm adaptively updates the inventory replenishment strategy under dynamic scenarios, resulting in lower inventory costs compared to various benchmarks. We also conduct numerical validation using real-world pharmaceutical inventory data to confirm the practical feasibility of the proposed algorithm.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) fails systematically on queries requiring structural reasoning over interconnected entities. We compare eight retrieval architectures for aerospace supply chain intelligence, progressing from text retrieval through graph traversal to graph computation. Using a 46-node knowledge graph with 64 typed edges, we evaluate 23 queries across 10 intent categories and demonstrate that five query classes are structurally unreachable for vector retrieval. Our central finding is the operator vocabulary thesis: the barrier to LLM-based graph reasoning is not model intelligence but the computational operators available as tools. An LLM Query Planner with 9 typed traversal primitives outperforms bespoke handlers (F1 = 0.632 vs. 0.472) while generalizing to unseen queries. Adding 6 graph computation tools, the LLM selectively adopts them for exactly the query categories where traversal fails. We also identify a measurement gap: entity-level F1 systematically underscores structural queries where comprehensive answers are correct.

The rights to rectification and erasure, as established under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), are central to protecting individuals' privacy. However, their effective enforcement in machine learning (ML) systems remains challenging. Existing work has largely addressed these rights from either a legal or a technical perspective in isolation and disregards the fact that models are produced in complex supply chains involving multiple actors across development, distribution, and deployment. This paper presents a holistic survey of challenges in implementing the rights to rectification and erasure in ML models. Drawing on academic literature and guidance from data protection authorities, we find that many GDPR requirements cannot yet be technically met in practice. Our findings further suggest that issues arising in ML supply chains are insufficiently addressed in research. To tackle this gap, we introduce the notion of models in the dark -- derived models created further downstream in an ML chain without sufficient transparency or traceability -- and analyse the urgent challenges posed by this phenomenon. By adopting an interdisciplinary perspective, this work contributes to bridging the gap between legal requirements and the technical implementation of data subject rights in ML, ultimately supporting the development of trustworthy artificial intelligence.

LLM-powered coding agents increasingly participate in software development workflows by generating code, selecting dependencies, and producing package installation commands. This creates a new software supply chain risk: when an agent hallucinates a non-existent package, an attacker may register the hallucinated name and later compromise users who install it. Existing package hallucination attacks and defenses primarily focus on naturally occurring hallucinations, targeted dependency steering, or post-hoc package validation. In this paper, we introduce \emph{Neutral Prompting Attack} (NPA), a highly stealthy attack paradigm in which semantically benign instructions, such as encouraging imagination and exhaustiveness, increase package hallucination propensity without containing explicit malicious intent. Unlike targeted dependency steering, NPA does not specify an attacker-chosen package. Instead, it shifts the model's dependency generation behavior toward more speculative package names. We evaluate NPA across multiple coding-oriented LLMs and package hallucination benchmarks. Our results show that NPA increases both \emph{Hallucination ASR} and \emph{Pip Install ASR}, changes the distribution of hallucinated package names, and evades existing static-analysis, LLM-based, and agent-based Skill defenses. These findings reveal that harmless-looking prompts can covertly manipulate hallucination behavior and create downstream software supply chain risks.

Financial and economic research often relies on structured supply-chain disclosures and commercial databases. In China, supplier--customer disclosure is typically limited to major partners of listed firms, leaving unlisted firms and long-tail inter-firm links poorly captured in structured data. Public web evidence can partly complement this gap through corporate, government, and trade-media disclosures; however, full-text web mining at scale is costly because pages are often inaccessible or expensive to process with large language models (LLMs). We propose a snippet-driven method for constructing a supply chain knowledge graph (SCKG), with firms as nodes and inter-firm relationships as edges. Web search snippets are query-biased summaries returned with search results. We use them as a scalable first-pass evidence layer for LLM-based relationship extraction. We evaluate the pipeline in terms of extraction efficiency and coverage. For extraction efficiency, exhaustive full-text chunking discovers 19.8$\times$ more unique relationships than snippets, but requires 251.2$\times$ more input tokens and yields higher redundancy. For coverage, we use 130,685 Chinese firms as search seeds, covering Shanghai/Shenzhen-listed firms and large unlisted firms as of 2024. In the listed-firm subset, the resulting SCKG covers 7.2$\times$ more firms and 9.3$\times$ more relationships than the CSMAR disclosure-based benchmark, while revealing heavy-tailed degree patterns. Retained provenance metadata make the SCKG an auditable complement to disclosure-based databases.

LLM-based multi-agent systems have been widely adopted for knowledge retrieval and report generation, synthesizing known information through web search and textual reasoning. However, many critical information tasks in supply chains are not simple one-shot queries: they are structural inference problems requiring multi-hop reasoning across complex, fragmented web resources. Questions such as \textit{``Which Tesla components use lithium from Australian mines?''} have no answer in any single document; answers must be computationally synthesized through the autonomous construction and analysis of dynamic knowledge graphs assembled from fragmented, heterogeneous sources. Moreover, such discovery processes must be uncertainty-aware: decisions depend not only on answers but on calibrated confidence in their reliability, traceable to source quality and reasoning consistency. To address this capability gap, we propose \textit{Helicase}, an autonomous multi-agent LLM system for uncertainty-guided supply chain knowledge graph construction. \textit{Helicase} decomposes high-level supply-chain queries into executable investigation plans, coordinates specialized web-search, reasoning, and coding agents through iterative verification loops, and incrementally constructs query-specific supply chain knowledge graphs with per-fact uncertainty annotations. Its three-layer uncertainty framework tracks uncertainty at the action, trajectory, and memory layers, enabling both structural inference and calibrated confidence assessment. To evaluate autonomous reasoning across the full complexity spectrum, we introduce SCQA (Supply Chain Query Assessment), a benchmark of 80 supply chain queries organized into four quadrants spanning single-hop to multi-hop inference under both high and low data visibility.

Synthetic data offers a promising solution to two persistent barriers in supply chain analytics: data scarcity and data privacy. However, for synthetic data to support operational simulation and decision-making, it must do more than reproduce the statistical distributions of real records, and also preserve the \emph{operational logic} that governs supply chain processes, including the temporal orderings, mathematical dependencies, hierarchical taxonomies, and conditional rules that make a record operationally plausible. We consider this logic as the ``physics'' of supply chain data. Existing tabular generative models are primarily optimized for distributional fidelity and downstream predictive utility, and therefore often generate records that appear statistically realistic but violate fundamental operational constraints. This paper introduces \textbf{\textit{TabKG}}, a knowledge-graph-guided framework for logically consistent synthetic supply chain tabular data generation. TabKG constructs a \textbf{\textit{Column Relationship Knowledge Graph (CR-KG)}} to represent data operational dependencies. It uses a multi-LLM ensemble with majority voting to propose candidate relationships from column metadata, validates these relationships against real data to remove hallucinated or unsupported edges, and then uses the validated CR-KG to guide generation. Specifically, TabKG compresses the original table into independent columns, generates these columns using a latent diffusion model, and deterministically reconstructs dependent columns according to the validated relationships, enforcing logical consistency by construction with respect to the discovered operational rules.

The rapid evolution of large language model (LLM)-driven autonomous agents has given rise to OpenClaw, a new class of open-source agent frameworks that operate as continuously running, skill-augmented systems with persistent memory, multi-channel interaction, and high degrees of autonomy. Such capabilities enable OpenClaw agents to autonomously execute complex, multi-step tasks and interact seamlessly with external applications, but simultaneously introduce a substantially enlarged attack surface. In particular, the combination of high-privilege operations and persistent memory exposes OpenClaw agents to various emerging threats, including skill poisoning, cognitive manipulation, multi-agent cascading failures, and supply-chain vulnerabilities. In this survey, we present a comprehensive study of the security landscape of OpenClaw agents. We first examine the general architecture and key characteristics that distinguish OpenClaw agents from traditional AI agent systems. We categorize existing security and privacy threats into a layered framework and analyze how vulnerabilities arise during agent reasoning, action execution, and external interaction. Representative defense mechanisms are also reviewed to draw the current defense landscape. Finally, several unresolved issues related to the reliability and trustworthiness of OpenClaw ecosystems are discussed.

Ethical constraints on open-weight AI models are both a reflection of societal concerns and a foundation for AI governance policy. They are expected to propagate to downstream derivatives while implemented as voluntary metadata disclosures that must be restated at each generation of reuse. We audit 2,142,823 model repositories on Hugging Face Hub to test whether this disclosure-based governance infrastructure can sustain traceability across deep model lineages. Restriction evidence decays with a half-life of 1.31 derivation steps ($R^2$=0.98), and beyond seven downstream generations at least 80% of descendant models lack sufficient public evidence for a governance determination, a depth boundary we formalize as the governance horizon. Platform-level interventions to restore missing licence metadata reveal that policy design (not enforcement alone) is the binding factor: inheritance-only designs require near-complete enforcement to move the horizon, whereas a mandatory-declaration design that explicitly resolves orphan lineage components shifts the horizon already at moderate enforcement. The structural bottleneck is lineages with no inheritable upstream intent: such orphan components remain undecidable under any inheritance-only policy regardless of enforcement rate, and unresolved upstream nodes additionally create direct downstream undecidability bottlenecks that inheritance rules alone cannot recover. Comparison with PyPI, where governance signals are carried by explicit machine-readable declarations, corroborates that the collapse is topology-specific to open-weight derivation rather than inherent to open ecosystems. These results establish that disclosure-based governance has a shallow, structurally determined reach in open-weight AI, and that achieving deep supply-chain accountability requires provenance mechanisms propagating governance signals through derivation itself.

Optimization models developed by operations research (OR) experts are often deployed as decision-support systems in industrial settings. However, real-world environments are dynamic, with evolving business rules and unforeseen perturbations. In such contexts, end users should ideally re-optimize models to recover feasible and implementable solutions, often without access to the original model developers. This paper introduces an agentic re-optimization framework in which a large language model (LLM) acts as an OR expert, dynamically supporting end users through natural-language interaction. The LLM translates user prompts into structured updates of the underlying optimization model, selects suitable re-optimization techniques from an optimization toolbox, and solves the resulting instance to return implementable solutions. The toolbox leverages primal information, including historical solutions, valid inequalities, solver configurations, and metaheuristics, to accelerate re-optimization while preserving solution quality. The proposed framework enables interactive and continuous adaptation of deployed optimization models, reducing dependence on OR experts, and improving the sustainability of decision-support systems. Extensive experiments on two complementary large-scale real-world case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed framework. The first considers online supply chain re-optimization, where solutions must be generated rapidly while remaining close to the deployed plan, whereas the second focuses on offline university exam scheduling, where solution quality is prioritized over runtime. Results show that the toolbox-driven architecture significantly improves computational efficiency through primal-based and solver-aware re-optimization techniques, while the structured patch-based updates improve interpretability and traceability of model modifications.

In sales and marketing, customer segmentation is an important tool for formulating strategies for customer treatment and supply chain management. Most segmentation implementations rely on limited criteria, such as recency, frequency, and monetary (RFM) modeling, which often fail to capture complex business interactions. In this work, we design and evaluate a dynamic multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in a business-to-business (B2B) manufacturing context by 1) extending RFM to dimensions of stability and growth, 2) integrating an adaptive and analytical hierarchical process to match business objectives, and 3) evaluating multivariate time-series clustering models. We then measure customer stability, tracking between-segment transitions, and volatility over time, and apply a graph-based consensus model to further strengthen the analysis. We test the efficacy of the proposed method using a real-world manufacturing company dataset to segment more than 3,000 B2B customers, showing strong robustness to temporal shifts. The implementation enables domain experts with preferential analytics to devise their strategies, providing effective decision support for B2B customer segmentation.

This paper studies the performance and reliability of autonomous generative AI agents in multi-echelon supply chains using the MIT Beer Game. We examine how model choice, operational guardrails, centralized data sharing, and prompt design affect system performance. In our best-performing configuration, GenAI agents reduce total supply-chain costs by up to 80% relative to human teams. Despite strong average performance, autonomous agents can exhibit substantial run-to-run instability, generating volatile procurement decisions and large tail costs. We characterize this phenomenon as agent bullwhip, the amplification of decision instability in autonomous multi-agent systems. We show that this instability can propagate across echelons and compound over time, even when the underlying demand path is held fixed. We then evaluate two approaches for improving reliability: reinforcement-learning post-training and operational guardrails. Both reduce tail events and mitigate agent bullwhip, but they operate through different mechanisms and require different levels of information and model access. Reinforcement-learning post-training delivers the largest gains in reliability and system performance when system-level feedback is available, while guardrails provide a simple training-free alternative for constraining extreme decisions.

This paper presents an LLM-empowered workflow for RISC-V supply chain analysis, integrating Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) to enable comprehensive, multimodal data-driven insights. The proposed approach addresses the challenges of heterogeneous and unstructured supply chain data by leveraging LLMs for textual understanding and VLMs for extracting information from visual artifacts such as diagrams, tables, and scanned documents. These models collaboratively identify key entities and relationships, which are then organized into a knowledge graph representing supply chain components and their interdependencies. For analytical reasoning, the workflow incorporates MDE techniques and constraint-based modeling to enable formal validation of dependencies, detection of bottlenecks, and assessment of risks. The synergy between LLM- and VLM-based semantic understanding and MDE-based formal analysis supports both exploratory and systematic evaluation of supply chain resilience. A human-in-the-loop mechanism further enables interactive querying and expert validation. The approach is evaluated in RISC-V ecosystem scenarios, demonstrating its effectiveness in generating actionable insights, enhancing transparency, and supporting decision-making in complex semiconductor supply chains.

With the deep integration of the travel and energy industries, cross-industry supply chain finance has gradually become a high-risk field of hidden money laundering incidents. For this reason, this work proposes a graph-driven cross-industry real-time anti-money laundering monitoring framework (GCRMF) for integrated travel - energy supply chain networks. First, a cross-industry heterogeneous graph (CIHG) covering new energy vehicle rental platforms, energy suppliers, fintech institutions, etc., is constructed, and industry semantics are integrated through temporarily Dual-GAT (Temporal Dual-Graph Attention Network), dynamically encoding capital flow paths and evolution features over time. Subsequently, in order to identify the structural fraud behavior together produced by colluding subjects, a meta-path subgraph reasoning module based on contrastive learning and hierarchical graph sampling is proposed to enhance the discrimination capability of cross-industry recurring money laundering behavior. Meanwhile, a self-supervised online learning mechanism is adopted for real-time adaptation and continuous optimization to new money laundering strategies. The experimental results show that compared with existing graph neural network methods in cross-industry scenarios, GCRMF improves the performance by more than 17.8% of F1 score and greatly reduces the false positive rate.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), six scenario sweeps, and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations. These datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, and Lag-Llama) yields MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmark suites. The same models provide forecast confidence bands through Latin-hypercube perturbations of demand-side parameters, enabling forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) unavailable on standard TSF datasets and demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH. Interactive demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HyeminGu/ISOMORPH-demo.

Accurate truck-to-shipment matching using GPS data is foundational for full truckload supply chain visibility, enabling real-time tracking and accurate estimated time of arrival (ETA) predictions. However, missing or corrupted vehicle identifiers prevent traditional matching approaches, leaving shipments without visibility. This paper presents Intelligent Truck Matching (ITM) 2.0, a machine learning system that addresses this critical gap by formulating matching as a probabilistic ranking problem. Our approach leverages Uber H3 hexagonal spatial indexing to discretize GPS pings into route similarity features, combined with temporal information, then applies LightGBM gradient boosting with threshold-based post-processing. Through rigorous evaluation including offline model selection (SVM, XGBoost, LightGBM), comprehensive ablation studies, and production shadow testing, we demonstrate substantial gains over rule-based baselines. ITM 2.0 achieves 26 percentage point precision improvement in North America and 14 points in Europe, while doubling coverage. Deployed in production at Project44 handling full truckload shipments, the system demonstrates robustness to geocoding errors up to 1 km, multiple candidate trucks, and sparse pings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in analytical workflows, but their suitability as exploratory data analysis (EDA) agents in business settings remains uncertain. In practice, a deployable EDA agent must provide not only useful average performance but also sufficient repeatability to support trust in its outputs. We evaluate this requirement in a controlled, business-relevant benchmark built on an agent-based supply chain simulation. The task is to identify supplier-product combinations responsible for low quality and downstream sales loss by reasoning from indirect operational traces rather than from explicit labels. Fifteen model-variant configurations from eight model families were evaluated under four experimental conditions that varied data representation, prompt clarity, and signal strength, with five trajectories per condition. Outputs were scored against deterministic ground truth using the Jaccard index and assessed through a framework that combines mean score (ms), coefficient of variation (CV), exploratory cross-condition significance tests, and Business utility, a risk-adjusted metric that we propose to summarise quality and repeatability in a single operational measure. The results show that most configurations are not reliable enough for autonomous EDA use, even when their average scores appear acceptable. GPT-5.4 with extra-high reasoning effort achieved the strongest overall profile, with an experiment-averaged ms of 0.8748 and an experiment-averaged Business utility of 0.6952, while the next-best configurations lost substantially more utility after variability discounting. Our findings suggest that evaluation of EDA agents should treat average quality, repeatability, and condition sensitivity as complementary dimensions of operational trustworthiness.

Many real-world resource allocation systems, such as humanitarian logistics and vaccine distribution, must preposition limited supply across multiple locations before demand is realized while stockouts incur irreversible service losses. To study this, we introduce the Online Shared Supply Allocation (OSSA) problem, a stateful online model in which a central hub allocates a finite, unknown supply to multiple sites facing sequential demand under fixed-charge transportation costs and lost-sales penalties. Unlike classical make-to-stock or make-to-order inventory models, OSSA precludes backlogging and replenishment only hedges against future demand. To tackle OSSA, we propose a deterministic threshold-proportional policy GPA and prove that it achieves a $4/3$-approximation to the offline optimum up to an additive term independent of the total supply. We complement this with matching lower bounds showing that the $4/3$ ratio is tight and that the additive-error dependence is unavoidable, even for randomized algorithms that know the total supply upfront. Finally, we develop a learning-augmented extension to GPA that principally incorporates imperfect forecasts (e.g., from human experts or ML models) commonly available in practice, enabling us to exploit high-quality advice while being robust against arbitrary bad ones. Synthetic and real-world experiments show that GPA outperforms natural baselines with global supply is scarce.

Climate volatility, regional production concentration, labor constraints, cyber risk, and dependence on long-distance fresh-produce supply chains expose vulnerabilities in U.S. fresh-produce and specialty-crop systems. Controlled environment agriculture (CEA) can reduce some exposure by moving selected production into protected, sensor-rich environments, but recent failures in venture-backed vertical farming show that CEA cannot be treated as a universal food-security solution. This paper proposes the Controlled Environment Agriculture Resilience Infrastructure Framework, Version 2.0 (CEA-RIF 2.0), for evaluating AI-driven CEA as targeted regional fresh-produce continuity infrastructure. The framework assesses seven dimensions: supply continuity, climate isolation, energy and grid integration, water and nutrient circularity, cyber-physical reliability, economic viability, and governance and deployment. Drawing on U.S. government reports, peer-reviewed CEA and energy literature, demand-response research, cybersecurity standards, international smart-agriculture programs, 2025-2026 financing and policy signals, and public autonomous-greenhouse datasets, the paper argues that AI creates resilience value only when it improves measured operational outcomes such as climate stability, energy flexibility, yield consistency, anomaly detection, labor productivity, and safe recovery from faults. The analysis reframes AI-driven CEA as a cyber-physical infrastructure problem: energy-aware, grid-interactive, secure, interoperable, regionally distributed, financially disciplined, and connected to public resilience goals. The paper concludes with a research agenda for interagency testbeds, open datasets, standardized metrics, demand-response pilots, and cyber-physical reference architectures.

Backdoor attacks threaten the deep learning supply chain by poisoning a small fraction of the training data so that a model behaves normally on clean inputs but misclassifies trigger-carrying inputs to an attacker-chosen target class. Clean-label backdoor attacks are especially dangerous because poisoned samples remain label-consistent and are therefore harder to detect. Yet existing clean-label attacks typically rely on expensive optimization, surrogate-model training, or nontrivial data access. We present Checkerboard, a theoretically grounded, learning-free clean-label backdoor attack that is effective, efficient, and simple to implement. From a linear separability formulation, we derive a checkerboard trigger in closed form, removing the need for surrogate-model training and trigger optimization. For texture-rich datasets, we introduce Complexity-driven Sample Selection, which uses only target-class data to improve trigger-to-background contrast by selecting low-complexity images for poisoning. Across four benchmark datasets, Checkerboard outperforms 8 baseline attacks and achieves state-of-the-art performance under low poisoning budgets. For example, on CIFAR-10, under a trigger perturbation budget of $10/255$, poisoning 20 training samples achieves $99.99\%$ Attack Success Rate (ASR). On ImageNet-100, a poisoning rate of only $0.46\%$ yields over $94\%$ ASR without degrading clean accuracy. The proposed attack also remains effective against state-of-the-art backdoor defenses and shows strong resistance to adaptive defenses.

Hallucinations remain an unsolved problem for LLMs, and package hallucinations are a particularly dangerous instance of this phenomenon. Package hallucinations occur during code generation when a model fabricates non-existent software packages, recommending imports and installation commands for fictional libraries. This creates a critical supply-chain vulnerability; an attacker can proactively register such packages on public registries with malicious payloads that are subsequently installed and executed by developers or autonomous agents. These hallucinations enable a class of package confusion attack known as slopsquatting. To address this issue, we present Adaptive Unlearning (AU), a post-deployment framework that surgically suppresses package hallucinations while preserving general model utility. AU introduces a hybrid token-level objective that simultaneously reinforces valid outputs and suppresses hallucinated ones. Combined with an adaptive discovery loop that continuously surfaces new hallucination-inducing contexts without human supervision, AU enables generalization to unseen prompts and hallucinations. We demonstrate that AU reduces package hallucination rates by 88%, while maintaining performance on standard coding benchmarks. Our analysis shows that distributional changes are concentrated on package-related generations, leaving general coding behavior largely unaffected and confirming that AU's effect is isolated to the targeted distribution. AU relies entirely on model-generated data and requires no human annotation, representing a post-deployment hallucination mitigation framework.

Supply chain resilience and efficiency are vital in industries characterized by volatile demand and uncertain supply, such as textiles and personal protective equipment (PPE). Traditional forecasting and optimization approaches often operate in isolation, limiting their real-world effectiveness. This paper proposes a Hybrid AI Framework for Demand-Supply Forecasting and Optimization (HAF-DS), which integrates a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based demand forecasting module with a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization layer. The LSTM captures temporal and contextual demand dependencies, while the optimization layer prescribes cost-efficient replenishment and allocation decisions. The framework jointly minimizes forecasting error and operational cost through embedding-based feature representation and recurrent neural architectures. Experiments on textile sales and supply chain datasets show significant performance gains over statistical and deep learning baselines. On the combined dataset, HAF-DS reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from 15.04 to 12.83 (14.7%), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) from 19.53 to 17.11 (12.4%), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) from 9.5% to 8.1%. Inventory cost decreased by 5.4%, stockouts by 27.5%, and service level rose from 95.5% to 97.8%. These results confirm that coupling predictive forecasting with prescriptive optimization enhances both accuracy and efficiency, providing a scalable and adaptable solution for modern textile and PPE supply chains.