Tabular Prediction

Momentum

8 papers in the last four weeks, down 11% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 74

Oct 7, 2026cs.LG

MotherTree: Meta-learning on synthetic data improves decision tree training

Conventional decision tree algorithms produce effective, transparent models that can be audited, communicated, and deployed independently of the training data, but require learning every new task from scratch. In contrast, tabular foundation models demonstrate that meta-learning from a synthetic prior distribution enables strong in-context prediction for previously unseen tasks, especially in small-sample regimes. However, this approach does not produce a standalone model that can be inspected in isolation. We introduce MotherTree, a tabular transformer that meta-learns decision tree induction: given a training set for a new task, it outputs a hard, axis-aligned decision tree, equivalent in form to classically trained trees, in a single forward pass. MotherTree is pre-trained on a synthetic prior using stochastic gradient descent without requiring reference trees for supervision. On established benchmarks with controlled sample size, the approach is competitive with size-matched trees from common algorithms: recursive partitioning, gradient-based tree learning, globally optimal trees, and distillation from tabular foundation models. Notably, MotherTree consistently improves over from-scratch gradient-based learning and acts as a strong initializer: task-specific tuning of the generated tree outperforms the corresponding from-scratch learner on all benchmarks and sample sizes. These results show that meta-learning can provide effective inductive biases for learning stand-alone, small decision tree classifiers.
Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

Beyond Correctness: Evaluating Semantic Knowledge in Cross-Table Transfer

Semantic knowledge is increasingly used to bridge heterogeneous schemas in tabular learning, but how much does that knowledge actually improve prediction? Studies in tabular learning commonly answer this question through semantic ablations that modify or suppress the supplied semantic knowledge. We show that these ablations can lead to misleading conclusions about predictive benefit: poor performance under altered semantics may be taken as evidence that the intended knowledge is beneficial. Across real and controlled experiments, altering semantic content can produce large performance differences even when the model gains little predictive benefit from having that semantic knowledge in the first place. To separate these effects, we distinguish two quantities: content sensitivity and predictive utility. Content sensitivity measures the change in performance when semantic content is altered, whereas predictive utility measures the benefit of the intended semantic knowledge relative to a suitable reference without that knowledge. This distinction motivates an evaluation framework in which the control is chosen according to the question being asked: altered controls assess sensitivity to semantic content, whereas claims that semantic knowledge improves prediction require a suitable reference. Even then, predictive utility is not fixed; it varies across suitable references and decreases when the reference can more easily recover the tested knowledge from other inputs or labeled examples. In a bounded audit of 25 semantic-ablation comparisons across nine studies, only one of 18 explicit predictive-utility claims is paired with a control that clearly isolates the tested semantic contribution. Together, these findings motivate a simple evaluation principle: semantic-ablation controls should be chosen and interpreted according to the question they are intended to answer.
Sep 23, 2026cs.LG

What Do Tabular Foundation Models Compute In Context? In-Situ Representation Refinement through Attention-Gated Updates

What reusable computation should a tabular foundation model learn when every table defines a new supervised task? We develop in-situ representation refinement: support labels guide updates to the episode's representations, and these updates transfer to unlabeled queries without changing model parameters. A regularized leave-one-out objective yields a support correction and its query extension. The leading term separates attention-based reading from state-dependent scaling, motivating RefineICL: an attention-gated, FFN-free contextual stack with selected low-rank feature interaction and typed memory. RefineICL-L24 reaches 0.93836 OVR-AUC and 0.87173 accuracy on AMLB29. A benchmark-informed continuation reaches 1644.8 Elo on the 38-dataset TabArena snapshot, 31.4 Elo above TabPFN-3 under the same evaluation. It also improves all four reported metrics over TabPFN-v3 on both TabZilla views. In a matched 100K-update depth grid, an expanded FFN gives no consistent validation benefit and uses 60.2% more peak inference memory at L8. Internal interventions show that support representations are more than a static source of labels: removing one intermediate support update, while preserving the query output, increases final query cross-entropy in all 72 tested episodes. Together, the derivation and interventions explain how attention-gated updates can construct a task-specific predictor in context.
Sep 22, 2026cs.LG

A JEPA Recipe for Tabular Foundation Models

Tabular foundation models learn to predict cell values in context, whereas world-model self-supervision asks for prediction in representation space (LeCun, 2022; Assran et al., 2023). On a tabular foundation-model prior, the latent term of a joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) collapsed in our earlier runs and took the encoder with it to a constant map. We report a recipe under which the latent term survives to convergence beside the value objective: the value head reads the encoder field rather than the predictor, and the target is an exponential moving average (EMA) difference. To bound its cost against the value-only arm, both arms train until a plateau rule stops them, with no fixed step budget. A fixed horizon had confounded a slowdown with a ceiling, since the value-only arm was still improving well past the usual budget. At convergence, in one run per arm, the JEPA arm trails the value-only arm across 147 real datasets, 32:70 wins to losses on classification (29:63 with one entry per dataset name) and 8:24 on regression, the margin small on classification and wider on regression, and the count leans the same way in each stratum and each benchmark. The JEPA arm (jepa) needs 1.42 times as many steps as the value-only arm (ds), and 1.66 times its wall-clock, to reach its plateau.
Sep 15, 2026cs.LG

TabPFN-3.5: Technical Report

We introduce TabPFN-3.5, our new flagship Tabular Foundation Model. It significantly outperforms its predecessor, TabPFN-3, and all existing baselines across a broad range of tabular problems. TabPFN-3.5 sets a new state of the art on standard tabular prediction in TabArena, and extends it to the data practitioners encounter in practice: non-i.i.d. data with temporal or grouped splits, tables with strings, text and images, high-cardinality categorical features, and wide tables with many features. These gains carry over to our task-specific harnesses: state of the art on relational data and stronger time-series forecasting. For faster inference, our variant TabPFN-3.5-Fast runs up to 3x faster than TabPFN-3 while keeping most of the accuracy gains. In addition, we upgrade TabPFN-3.5-Plus, expanding our multimodal capabilities with advanced text and date handling alongside proprietary inference optimizations. Finally, we release a new version of our Thinking mode, TabPFN-3.5-Thinking, which scales inference-time computation to push the state of the art further. It benefits from our stronger base model and from inference-time improvements that make it up to 12x faster than TabPFN-3-Thinking.
Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

Agentic Search Spaces for Tabular Machine Learning

Despite the rapid progress of LLM-based agents for planning, code generation, and debugging, their practical value for tabular machine learning remains underexplored. In this paper, we investigate a concrete use case: whether state-of-the-art agentic AI systems can design extended HPO search spaces for established tabular models that outperform the standard search spaces provided by the model authors. Specifically, we represent each tabular model as a modular pipeline covering preprocessing, embeddings, architecture, training, and inference. We then task the agent to propose candidate code implementations for each module and use a classical HPO algorithm to jointly optimize over these candidates and the model's default hyperparameters. Compared with the base HPO spaces, the expanded search spaces improve the performance of nearly every model family across a suite of 45 datasets, with average relative gains of 0.6%, rising to 2.0% on small-to-medium regression datasets. Notably, these gains come at no extra tuning cost: the enlarged spaces outperform the base under the same tuning and ensembling budgets. The gains transfer to the recent TabArena benchmark, where the agentic spaces improve the official Elo scores of four of the five model families and the two strongest agentic ensembles surpass the best AutoGluon ensemble of conventional models. Overall, our study suggests that LLM agents can provide practical value for tabular ML by expanding the design space.
Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

A Differentially Private Federated Proximal Optimization Framework for Customer Churn Prediction in Heterogeneous Federated Telecom Networks

Customer churn is one of the major issues in the telecommunication industry. To predict customer churn, conventional centralized machine learning approaches have been widely used. This centralized approach requires customer data to be stored in a central repository, which raises privacy concerns and may violate data protection regulations. Federated learning addresses this problem by allowing multiple telecom operators to collaboratively train a global model without transferring their raw customer data. However, real-world customer data are often heterogeneous (non-IID), which may negatively affect the performance of standard federated learning. Trained models can also suffer from privacy attacks. To address those issues, we propose a Differentially Private (DP) based Federated Proximal optimization (FedProx) framework. All experiments were performed on two publicly available telecom churn datasets. We trained Federated Averaging (FedAvg), DP-FedAvg, FedProx, and the proposed DP-FedProx framework. For baseline comparison, we also used several centralized and local models. To evaluate the models, we employed seven widely used evaluation metrics. The experimental results show that the FedProx based models consistently outperform the FedAvg based models. Compared with the best centralized model, the proposed DP-FedProx framework achieves competitive prediction performance with only a small reduction in accuracy while providing privacy guarantees. To explain our model, we conducted SHAP analysis which shows that DP-FedProx method priorities revenue group features. These results indicate that the proposed DP-FedProx framework provides a practical balance between prediction performance and data privacy protection.
Sep 9, 2026cs.LG

Quantum Feature Engineering for Credit Default Prediction: When and Why IQP Circuits Help Linear Classifiers

Credit default prediction is a tabular classification problem in which modest gains in F1 translate directly into reduced financial exposure. We ask whether Instantaneous Quantum Polynomial-time (IQP) circuits can produce features that improve a classifier over both its raw classical baseline and Kernel PCA - the strongest unsupervised classical non-linear alternative - at an equal feature budget. The dataset provides 23 financial attributes per client; for an n-qubit circuit we select n of them, encode each as a rotation angle, and read 2n expectation values back out as new features. The motivation for using a quantum circuit is computational: an n-qubit IQP circuit runs in constant depth and encodes feature correlations in a 2^n-dimensional Hilbert space, whereas classical simulation of its exact output statistics scales exponentially in n. Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, we find that appending 16 IQP features (n = 8 qubits) to a Logistic Regression model raises F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the next-best method, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count; the gap survives Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). No other classifier - Random Forest, SVM, XGBoost, or k-NN - benefits, which points to a linear-expressivity mechanism rather than a generic improvement. We also show that how the 8 input features are chosen matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523, while encoding maximally uncorrelated features drops it to 0.496, demonstrating that the circuit amplifies informative structure rather than creating it from scratch.
Sep 7, 2026cs.LG

TabBench-Bio: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on High-Dimensional Biomedical Tables

Biomedical tables often combine thousands of measured variables with only tens or hundreds of labelled samples, a regime that is poorly represented in general-purpose tabular benchmarks. We introduce TabBench-Bio, a living and interactive benchmark of 43 biomedical datasets spanning multiple domains. Under a shared cross-validation protocol, we compare classical estimators, neural networks, and tabular foundation models across 28 feature-by-sample operating points. At the reference cell of 10,000 features and 100 training samples, RealTabPFN v2.5 has the highest point estimate, followed by Logistic Regression and TabDPT, whose point estimates are nearly identical. A paired bootstrap over the target pool separates RealTabPFN v2.5 from Logistic Regression by 145 Elo (95% interval [59, 232]). Tabular foundation models generally occupy the leading ranks, while the strongest configuration depends on the operating point and biomedical modality. The AutoML framework AutoGluon, using its one-hour "extreme" preset, is configured as a separate resource-intensive reference and is reported here at the reference cell. Fold-level predictions, run status, and deterministic aggregations make every reported result reproducible and reusable. We invite the community to contribute: TabBench-Bio is designed to grow, and we welcome submissions of new biomedical tabular datasets, particularly from underrepresented assays and clinical endpoints, for inclusion in future releases. The interactive leaderboard is available at: https://tabbench-bio.eu
Sep 4, 2026cs.CL

Can Large Language Models Anticipate Behavioral Responses to Social Policies? A Case of Pension Enrollment Prediction among China's Flexible Workers

Assessing the impacts of social policy changes is a widely acknowledged challenge for policymakers. Econometric methods can be unreliable when extrapolating to hypothetical scenarios, while field pilot programs are highly costly. In this paper, we propose using large language models (LLMs) as policy-assessment tools adapted from general-purpose models. We present FlexPension-LLM, the first domain-specialized large language model for a hierarchical pension-enrollment prediction task among flexible workers in China, and introduce DKI-RDistill, which injects policy-grounded cues into the prompt, including Probit-derived marginal effects and hukou-province pension rules. The method then uses LoRA/SFT to distill rationale-augmented supervision into an open-weight MoE student, with teacher errors corrected by regenerating those cases under ground-truth labels. On a CHFS 2019 blind split, FlexPension-LLM achieves 0.9316 Composite F1, surpassing its Claude Sonnet 4.5 teacher and 15 of 17 baselines, and is statistically indistinguishable from Claude Opus 4.6. Across four external surveys, it averages 0.7549 Composite F1 and shows the narrowest performance range among the strongest systems. Component analysis shows that gains come mainly from policy-grounded cue injection and error-filtered supervision, while rationales provide decision traces that can be checked against policy rules.
Sep 1, 2026cs.LG

Solving In-Table Prediction Problems by Deep Neural Networks with Performance Evaluation Using Synthetic Data

Tabular deep learning (TDL) leverages neural networks (NN) to extract patterns from tabular data. Traditional TDL methods follow a supervised learning paradigm, where a target feature is explicitly given. In this work, however, we explore a different approach by employing deep NNs to learn relationships among individual columns within a given table. We investigate whether NNs can predict the values of arbitrarily selected columns in a given table based on the remaining known columns. We call this problem In-Table Prediction (ITB), which is slightly different from table imputation methods and the pretraining task of TDL. Three potential usage scenarios are identified, which, to our best knowledge, have not been extensively studied in the literature. A self-supervised learning approach is applied to address this problem by randomly selecting columns to be masked out and used as learning targets. This work focuses on tabular datasets containing only continuous features. To handle missing values in continuous features, a novel neural layer is proposed to embed both numerical and empty values. Synthetic data is generated based on predefined column relationships, with empty values inserted using two distinct mechanisms. Additionally, an adapted masking strategy is employed to create test data. Performances of three NN architectures, namely MLP, Resnet and Transformer, are evaluated using the generated synthetic data. We conclude that, the attention-based structure outperforms the other two networks, when a sufficiently large number of training examples is available and a relatively large embedding length is chosen. We stress that these findings are obtained under controlled, synthetic conditions with a small number of columns and it should therefore be regarded as an initial, narrowly-scoped investigation rather than a general characterization of ITP on real-world tabular data.
Sep 1, 2026cs.LG

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.
Aug 31, 2026cs.AI

Predicting Residential Rents in Dakar Using Machine Learning

Dakar's residential rental market remains poorly documented despite its economic and social importance: 54.4% of households are renters, compared to 23.3% nationally. This study develops a complete machine learning pipeline to predict residential rents in Dakar, from data collection to model interpretation. An original dataset of 1,507 rental listings was built through systematic web scraping and a documented cleaning pipeline, then enriched with four purpose-built features, including a luxury score and a keyword-based quality score. Five models were compared: linear regression, Random Forest (baseline), XGBoost, and LightGBM optimized through Bayesian optimization with Optuna, using leakage-free KFold target encoding for location. The optimized XGBoost model achieved the best performance with an R2R^2 of 0.847, an MAE of 210,902 XOF, and an RMSE of 324,195 XOF. Feature importance was assessed using native XGBoost gain and SHAP values, revealing a substantial difference in the ranking of location, which appears as a minor predictor by gain but as the second most influential variable by SHAP. This result carries methodological implications for hedonic studies using target-encoded categorical variables. This study provides an interpretable benchmark for Dakar's rental market and highlights several avenues for improvement, including the integration of geospatial features and conformal prediction.
Aug 30, 2026cs.CL

When Does a Classifier Help an LLM? Classifier-Guided Prompting and Hybrid Classifier-LLM Models for Credit-Default Prediction

Credit-default prediction is an important task in financial decision making. Traditional methods use fitted classifiers such as logistic regression and random forests on tabular features. Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to this task through prompting. In this work we study how a fitted classifier and an LLM can be combined for credit-default prediction. We distinguish telling the LLM to imitate a classifier from using the classifier to build the prompt. We hypothesize that a fitted classifier can supply the ranking ability that an LLM prompt lacks. We experiment on the Default of Credit Card Clients dataset, and report recall, F1, and the area under the ROC and precision-recall curves, with bootstrap confidence intervals. We observe that a few-shot LLM has the highest recall (0.47) and F1 (0.50) of any single model but ranks worse than a random forest (AUC-ROC 0.72 against 0.79). Instructing the LLM to imitate a classifier gives no significant change. Pruning the prompt to the classifier's eight most important features raises recall by 0.071 and F1 by 0.032. Adding the classifier's predicted probability to the prompt raises the LLM's AUC-ROC from 0.72 to 0.78, matching the random forest, while keeping 0.118 higher recall than it. The reverse composition, and the use of several classifiers, do not help. We thus recommend a simple classifier-guided prompt for LLM-based credit prediction.
Aug 13, 2026cs.CV

TabSOM: A tabular-to-image encoding method based on self-organizing maps

Tabular-to-image methods have emerged as novel approaches to leverage the high predictive performance of convolutional neural networks and vision transformers. They convert tabular data into image representations, mapping each feature at a fixed pixel location derived from a dimensionality-reduction method (e.g., t-SNE, UMAP, PCA). However, they encode only the marginal value of each feature and discard information about feature relationships. We propose TabSOM, a tabular-to-image encoding built on the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which provides: (i) a spatial layout in which every input feature occupies a fixed canvas position derived from its component plane via collision-free Hungarian assignment; and (ii) a graph that captures pairwise feature relationships derived from the SOM component planes. The resulting image stacks two multi-scale node channels: one encodes feature values at fixed scales, while the other encodes pairwise feature interactions as spatial connections between related features. Two SOM-derived interpretability approaches are introduced: a prototype-inspired partial dependence plot and a class--separation importance score. Benchmarked against twelve existing tabular-to-image methods across public binary-classification datasets, TabSOM ranks first or second on every dataset and achieves the lowest variance of any method evaluated. Interpretability obtained with TabSOM was validated against Random Forest, XGBoost, and SHAP, the class-separation score shows reasonable agreement with established baselines on the top-ranked features while capturing complementary structural information from input data. These results demonstrate that TabSOM provides an effective and interpretable approach for applying deep learning architectures to tabular data, bridging the performance--interpretability gap in this domain.
Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

AutoGrable: What Is a Good Graph for a Table?

Graph learning presupposes a graph, and tables and relational databases do not come with one. Applying a GNN to them requires deciding which entities become nodes, which of them to connect, and through which relations---a decision made by hand, by schema heuristics, or by training a model on every candidate graph and keeping the best. We give a criterion that requires no trained graph model. In the minimal table-to-graph abstraction each row is a node, so a message-passing GNN, bounded by 1-WL, sees a construction only as a partition of the rows into colour-refinement classes: a construction is good for a task when that partition separates rows with different labels and does not split rows that share one. AutoGrable turns this criterion into a construction procedure. For incidence constructions the partition is fixed by the selected columns, so building a graph reduces to choosing them, and we score a candidate subset by a label-alignment risk: the held-out risk of the best predictor constant on its blocks, penalised by an occupancy term measuring how thinly the blocks are populated. The score materialises no graph and trains no GNN, so AutoGrable can search the space of subsets greedily and cheaply, and returns the resulting grable for single tables and for foreign-key schemas alike. Our experiments show that over a space of candidate graphs the score discards a large fraction while retaining the best; that AutoGrable recovers the columns that generate the label on controlled tasks and outperforms fixed, random, and task-aware constructors on real tasks under a fixed predictor; and that it is the only method compared that can decline to build a graph when none helps.
Aug 10, 2026cs.LG

Full-Feature versus Limited-Input Machine Learning for Residential Energy Estimation: A Comparative Analysis of RECS and ResStock Under Realistic Input Constraints

Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available. This study quantifies the trade-off between predictive accuracy and input accessibility using two nationally representative U.S. residential-energy datasets: the survey-based Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the simulation-based ResStock dataset. Full-feature models were first used to establish dataset-specific performance benchmarks. For total-energy estimation, the models were subsequently restricted to ten low-burden variables obtainable from occupants, administrative records, or location-based weather data without an on-site energy audit. Among CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and Neural Networks, CatBoost consistently achieved the highest predictive performance for the full-feature analysis, reaching R2 = 0.90 for ResStock and R2 = 0.73 for RECS. When the feature set was restricted to ten homeowner-accessible inputs to simulate realistic deployment conditions, model performance converged to R2 = 0.61 for RECS and R2 = 0.62 for ResStock, showing that algorithmic complexity cannot fully compensate for missing physical and behavioral information. However, for a more homogeneous ResStock cohort consisting of single-family detached, natural-gas-heated homes in Climate Zone 6A constructed between 2000 and 2010, a reduced-input model improved accuracy to R2 = 0.85, demonstrating the value of targeted modeling for homogeneous populations. The results indicate that tree-based ensemble models can serve as high-fidelity emulators of national-scale residential energy datasets. However, careful consideration of feature availability, dataset origin (empirical vs. synthetic), and applicable use cases are also important.
Aug 10, 2026cs.LG

Tabular Numeric Stretch Transformation

Tabular data presents unique challenges for deep learning due to its heterogeneous nature, where numeric features exhibit diverse distributions, scales, and statistical properties. Although recent advances have improved how models learn from tabular data, how numeric data are transformed into model-friendly representations remains comparatively underexplored. We introduce the stretch transformation framework, which formulates numeric feature preprocessing as an optimization problem to make the target function smoother and thus more learnable. Our framework has two variants: (1) unsupervised stretch, which uniformly redistributes feature density via minimax optimization, and (2) supervised stretch, which optimizes target-aware numeric feature transformations from the perspective of target-function smoothness by minimizing the target function's Dirichlet energy in the transformed space. Our theoretical analysis further connects this framework to several popular transformations: unsupervised stretch is closely related to Piecewise Linear Encoding through a shared piecewise-linear geometry and approaches the empirical CDF transformation as the number of bins grows, while supervised stretch becomes closely related to target encoding in the fine-binning limit. Comprehensive experiments on 38 datasets from the TALENT benchmark demonstrate that supervised stretch consistently outperforms all baselines. These results show that explicitly optimizing for target function smoothness is a powerful and underexplored strategy for tabular deep learning.
Aug 6, 2026cs.LG

SkillTFM: Gated Skill Evolution for Training-Free Adaptation of Tabular Foundation Models

Tabular data are ubiquitous in real-world applications and are crucial for data-driven prediction and decision-making across science, industry, finance, healthcare, and public services. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for general-purpose tabular learning, offering reusable predictors across diverse datasets and substantially reducing the need for task-specific training, tuning, and model development. However, their practical deployment remains constrained by distribution shifts, heterogeneous feature semantics, and task-specific patterns that are difficult to capture without costly fine-tuning or additional labeled data. To this end, we propose SkillTFM, a training-free system that shifts TFM adaptation from parameter updates to the gated evolution of agentic skills. The core of SkillTFM is a verifiable and extensible skill bank that couples boundary evidence identification with gated skill evolution: the former characterizes task structure and base-model failure patterns, whereas the latter retrieves and extends reusable skills subject to explicit validation. Across simulated boundary settings and real-world electricity-price forecasting, SkillTFM improves AUC by 0.128--0.142, raises nonlinear-boundary AUC from 0.699 to 0.898. Furthermore, experiments across TFM backbones demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of SkillTFM.
Aug 6, 2026cs.LG

Do Tabular Foundation Models Agree with Themselves?

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) are currently the best approach to tabular prediction problems. They are constructed as transformers that approximate the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution based on a pre-training prior. These univariate predictors can be converted into multivariate ones autoregressively by sampling one target and adding it to the features. However, the faithfulness of the resulting joint has not been investigated. Furthermore, TFMs cannot be evaluated against the posterior itself, at least not on real-world datasets, because the ground-truth distribution is unknown. We therefore propose asking a different question: could a model's predictions result from any joint distribution? To answer this question, we pose two requirements that any such model must satisfy. The first is marginalization consistency, which demands that marginalized conditionals are equal to directly predicted marginals. The second is factorization consistency, which demands that different factorization orders result in equal joint distributions. Every TFM that we evaluate violates both of these requirements for both classification and regression across all datasets.
Aug 5, 2026cs.LG

Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Prediction

Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas. However, identifying reliable machine learning models is complicated by overlapping debris-flow and non-debris-flow events in feature space, the need for model interpretability, and limited training data. This paper addresses these challenges through a systematic evaluation of machine learning models in terms of predictive performance, feature importance, and synthetic data augmentation. Using basin-scale observations of post-wildfire debris-flow events across the western United States, we compare 15 models, including the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN). Repeated stratified cross-validation shows that TabPFN achieves the highest unaugmented performance with a threat score of 0.637, closely followed by the best tree-based models. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to identify the features driving predictions, revealing that short-duration rainfall intensity and storm accumulation consistently rank highest, while burn severity and terrain features contribute less. We further evaluate synthetic data augmentation using TabPFN-generated samples to address the scarcity of debris-flow observations. Synthetic augmentation improves the performance of all models except CNN, with the largest mean threat score increase of +0.041 among the deep learning models. By combining rigorous model benchmarking, interpretable feature analysis, and synthetic data augmentation, this work provides a comprehensive framework for improving post-wildfire debris-flow prediction.
Aug 4, 2026cs.AI

Enhancing Tabular Learners with Context-Aware Semantic Embeddings

While modern tabular learners excel at capturing statistical patterns, they frequently operate in a semantic vacuum, treating textual features as discrete symbols, ignoring the rich semantics inherent in feature names or cell entries. We propose CASE (Context-Aware Semantic Embeddings), a novel framework that bridges the gap between the semantic understanding of Large Language Models (LLMs) and the statistical capabilities of tabular learners. Unlike existing methods that embed rows in isolation, CASE utilizes a contextualization strategy: we pre-fill the KV cache of a custom-trained Gemma 3-based Tabular Language Model with a representative sample of rows to establish a persistent anchor of the dataset's semantics. This ensures that generated row embeddings are dynamically contextualized, resolving semantic ambiguities and anchoring representations in domain-specific context. Our experiments across several benchmarks (CARTE, TextTab, and TabArena) demonstrate that CASE substantially improves the performance of tabular learners on semantically rich datasets, particularly in low-data regimes.
Aug 3, 2026cs.LG

Why Large Language Models Fail at Tabular Prediction

Large language models (LLMs) have become the default tool for a remarkable range of tasks, yet they have had conspicuously little success at one of the most common machine learning workloads: predictive analytics over tabular data. This gap is the founding premise of the fast-growing field of tabular foundation models, but the question of why generic LLMs fail has remained open. We study a frontier LLM in its purest inference regime - a single generation pass over a prompt containing the full training and test data, with no tools, no agentic scaffolding, and no fine-tuning - and systematically evaluate five hypotheses for the failure: (a) an inability to handle noisy or non-linearly-separable data; (b) the linearised CSV format obscuring column structure; (c) the tokenisation of numeric values; (d) the number of test points classified per query; and (e) the dimensionality of the input. Controlled experiments falsify (a)-(d). Dimensionality, in contrast, is decisive: sweeping random linear projections of thirty-one benchmark datasets, the LLM is the only method among nine whose accuracy decreases as dimensionality grows, while every classical baseline stays flat or improves. A behavioural comparison against 252 configured classical models finds that in two dimensions the LLM predicts like a local, distance-based method (up to 91.6% grid agreement), but in higher dimensions no classical model - even when augmented with tuned, dimension-dependent noise - reproduces its predictions. We do not claim to have identified the internal mechanism; our results show, more modestly, that the LLM's capability dissolves with dimension in a way no noise-corrupted classical learner mimics - which explains why LLMs, so capable elsewhere, keep losing to fifty-year-old baselines on tables, while leaving the mechanism of the prediction as an open question.
Aug 2, 2026cs.LG

TabDPT-Turbo: Efficient In-Context Learning for Tabular Prediction

Tabular foundation models, driven by in-context learning, have rapidly grown in quality and popularity. However, recent approaches with either cell-based architectures or retrieval have sacrificed efficiency for raw performance, restricting their utility in situations where compute is limited or inference speed is crucial. We adopt an alternate approach, sticking with row-based attention while incorporating long context pre-training to eliminate the need for retrieval. By combining this with architectural improvements and SSL pre-training on a newly-sourced, larger corpus of real data results, we present TabDPT-Turbo, a model that provides comparable default performance to TabDPT v1.1 on TabArena-Lite, CC18, and CTR23, at orders of magnitude faster. In our experiments, TabDPT-Turbo is the fastest model overall among leading foundation models. We have released the new model as TabDPT v1.2 at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/TabDPT-inference.
Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

SPARC Segmentation to Prediction via Affine Regression and Counterfactuals

Transaction propensity prediction in B2B e commerce presents unique challenges distinct from B2C contexts, primarily due to the heterogeneous procurement behaviors of organizational entities, which violate SMOTE's implicit assumption of within class feature homogeneity. Specifically, B2B buyers exhibit multi modal procurement cycles that render linear interpolation between minority class samples structurally invalid, producing synthetic data that does not represent real purchasing behavior. This paper introduces a production deployed propensity modeling framework designed to address these complexities through two primary contributions. First, we replace conventional SMOTE based augmentation with a synthetic data generation approach leveraging Diverse Counterfactual Explanations (DiCE). This method produces minority class samples with superior distributional fidelity compared to SMOTE, as validated through quantitative proximity analysis and UMAP cluster visualization. Second, we adapt the PyPARC piecewise affine classification framework to generate calibrated propensity probabilities, facilitating the interpretable segmentation of customers into actionable risk tiers. Evaluated on two years of longitudinal data from a large scale B2B e commerce platform with a 1 to 9 class imbalance ratio, the proposed architecture achieves 93.1% precision at a decision threshold of 0.8, a 9.2 percentage point improvement over SMOTE based baselines at the same threshold (83.9%), and a 26.1 point improvement over SMOTE at threshold 0.7 (66.04%), demonstrating consistent superiority across operating points. These results demonstrate the framework's efficacy in enabling high precision marketing campaigns with significant improvements in customer activation and return on investment.
Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Scaling Laws for Classical Machine Learning on Tabular Data: A Benchmark Study

Prior classical-ML learning-curve work fits power laws to tree, linear, and kernel models on tabular data, but at small scale: typically one curve, one team, a handful of cells. We present a distributed classroom-scale replication: 127 graduate students each ran a fixed protocol on 3 assigned datasets, drawn from 18 tabular classification and regression datasets and 6 model families (Boosting, Random Forest, SVM, Linear/Logistic, Ridge, Lasso), yielding 11,536 training runs and 1,648 fitted power-law curves of the form error(N) = a N^(-b) + c. Three findings. (1) Power laws fit: R^2 > 0.8 on 77.7% of cells, with tree ensembles dominating at full data (Boosting 50% of datasets, RandomForest 33%; linear models underperform on classification). (2) Approximate shared exponents within a model family: for 5 of 6 families, a single family-level exponent predicts each family's cross-dataset curves nearly as well as per-dataset exponents (R^2 gap < 0.011), though AIC favors the unconstrained fit and curve collapse is partial (32-58% of points within +/-0.5 dex). We frame this as approximate predictive compressibility, not dataset-independent universality; Lasso fails outright (negative control) and Ridge is fragile under leave-one-dataset-out. (3) Replicator-implementation variance: with random_state=42 fixed, independent re-implementations of the same protocol still differ by mean CV(b) = 0.144 on the fitted exponent -- not seed variance, but the spread induced by unconstrained parts of the protocol (preprocessing, encoding, missing-value handling). We release the aggregated curves, per-cell fits, and a practical data-requirement table for N* to reach target error 0.15.
Jul 19, 2026cs.AI

Bridging the Information Gap: Semantic Densification and Hindsight Distillation for Cold-Start Prediction

New-user cold-start is a critical bottleneck for e-commerce platforms: predicting user lifetime value (LTV) and conversion rate (CVR) for users with sparse interaction history. Two prior directions -- LLM-based semantic augmentation and learning using privileged information (LUPI) -- each face a key limitation. First, LLM augmentation produces unstructured rationales that are noisy and hard to operationalize in production. Second, naive student-teacher distillation can be brittle due to an information gap between the privileged teacher and the sparse student; moreover, this gap is heterogeneous across users. We propose SemRaD, a Semantic Reasoning-aware Distillation framework addressing both limitations. First, a Structured Semantic Reasoning Pipeline replaces free-form rationales with a structured schema built via a discover-curate-audit workflow, producing per user a Densified Semantic Profile (consumed by the deployed student via a Semantic-Gated Encoder that focuses on the most informative dimensions) and a Hindsight Distillation Target reconciled from pre- and post-conversion reasoning (used only at training). Second, to bridge this gap and handle its heterogeneity, a Hindsight-Aware Distillation Network transfers privileged knowledge via the hindsight target, with Distillation Experts improving transfer under per-user variability. On a large-scale industrial dataset, SemRaD lifts +1.9% LTV (Gini) and +1.0% CVR (AUROC) over a production-grade base; a four-week online A/B at Keeta confirms +1.0% LTV / +0.43% CVR. SemRaD also matches the production system's LTV using only 9% of the training data while improving CVR by 0.8%.
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

AquaAugmentor: A Novel Feature Augmentation Algorithm for Water Potability Prediction

Access to potable water is crucial for health, economic development, and sustainability. However, accurately classifying water quality remains a significant challenge due to the complexity and variability of water source data. This paper addresses the challenge of predicting water potability through machine learning and deep learning algorithms. It introduces a novel feature augmentation algorithm, AquaAugmentor, to enhance the predictive performance of these models for low-dimensional datasets. Utilizing a dataset that includes chemical attributes of water, such as pH, hardness, solids, chloramines, sulfate, and others. This study evaluates the performance of the models with and without AquaAugmentor. Each model applied to classify water as potable or non-potable and its performance is then evaluated and compared based on test accuracy and AUC score. The results highlight the strengths and limitations of our proposed algorithm, providing insights into the most effective techniques for improving the predictive performance of water quality classification. This study contributes to the broader efforts of ensuring safe water access and serves as a framework for employing machine learning in environmental quality assessments. The findings aim to assist researchers, policymakers, and public health officials in making informed decisions based on reliable machine learning predictions.
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

Field-Aware RankMixer with Dual-Stream Bilinear Fusion for the Tencent UNI-REC Challenge

This paper presents our solution to the KDD Cup 2026 Tencent UNIREC Challenge. The task requires joint modeling of multi-domain user behavior sequences and non-sequential multi-field features for target-ad pCVR prediction. We develop a Field-Aware RankMixer (FA-RankMixer) with dual-stream bilinear fusion. The model first applies target-aware DIN modules to extract user interests from multiple behavior domains. It also models recent and earlier interests separately for the longest behavior sequence. The model then forms semantic tokens based on feature fields and behavior domains and uses RankMixer blocks for cross-token interaction. A shallow MLP stream complements the deep RankMixer stream, and a group-wise bilinear module fuses their representations. Our final solution ranks ninth on the official leaderboard. Our code is available at https://github.com/PixelCookie-zyf/TAAC-2026-SeRankMixer.
Jul 11, 2026cs.LG

TabLoRA: Parameter-Efficient Low-Rank Ensemble Learning for Large-Scale Tabular Data

Tabular learning is still dominated by gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs), while recent deep learning approaches have become increasingly competitive. However, applying deep tabular models to large-scale datasets remains challenging, as large sample sizes, high feature dimensionality, or many target classes can introduce substantial computational cost. We propose TabLoRA, a parameter-efficient trainable neural ensemble for large-scale tabular learning. Instead of using fully independent ensemble backbones, TabLoRA shares a common backbone across predictors and introduces predictor-specific low-rank adaptations, enabling ensemble-style prediction without full parameter duplication. Across benchmarks, TabLoRA achieves a favorable balance between predictive performance and practical efficiency compared with GBDT methods and recent deep learning baselines under the same resource constraints. Memory analysis and ablation studies further show that the proposed design improves the feasibility of neural ensemble learning while preserving much of the benefit of full ensembles.