Temperature

Contrastive learning approaches achieve strong performance by training models to bring similar samples closer while pushing dissimilar samples apart. A crucial component of contrastive learning is the temperature hyperparameter $τ$, which controls the penalty strength applied to negative samples. However, most existing methods either fix this hyperparameter or learn a global value during training. In this paper, we introduce TeMo, Temperature Modulation framework, a similarity-based modulation approach that adaptively adjusts the temperature for each positive-negative pair according to their similarity, enabling more fine-grained multimodal contrastive learning. Our approach seamlessly integrates temperature-modulated multimodal and unimodal losses with the standard multimodal contrastive loss by gradually transitioning between them. This design allows the model to capture both coarse- and fine-grained semantics at different training stages. Extensive experiments demonstrate that each component of TeMo consistently enhances performance across diverse zero-shot retrieval and classification tasks, establishing new state-of-the-art results.

Accurate modeling and forecasting of power transformer thermal behavior are critical for reliability, asset lifetime, and optimized power system operation. Numerical approaches such as finite element methods (FEM) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offer high fidelity but are computationally expensive, require complex mesh generation, and are often impractical for real-time or large-scale applications, particularly when transformer geometries are unknown. Lumped-parameter thermal models are more practical but depend on transformer-specific thermal constants and may fail to capture dynamic responses under varying operating and environmental conditions. Purely data-driven machine learning methods, including artificial neural networks, convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have shown success in forecasting transformer temperatures but typically require large volumes of high-quality training data and may produce physically inconsistent or uninterpretable results. This paper develops a physics-aware Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) framework for forecasting transformer thermal behavior from real-world time-series data. Neural ODEs model system dynamics in continuous time, providing smooth trajectory prediction and a natural representation of continuously evolving thermal dynamics. A key contribution is the integration of simplified heat-transfer equations directly into the Neural ODE formulation. The model is evaluated across datasets from fifteen transformers in different regions of Norway with varying designs and cooling mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the developed Neural ODE framework provides a standardized, physics-aware, and robust forecasting approach for heterogeneous transformer units.

Multimodal federated learning (FL) supports collaborative modeling in privacy-sensitive health-sensing and medical settings, but realistic deployments often exhibit dual-axis modality missingness: clients have different modality sets, and individual samples may contain only subsets of the modalities available locally. Existing methods typically address these two axes separately. We propose Flux, a multimodal federated learning framework built around two complementary components. First, modality-aware confidence tempering learns sample-specific confidence for each modality through mask-aware unimodal supervision and fuses the confidence estimates from observed modalities into a sample-adaptive temperature that adjusts predictive sharpness according to evidence quality and completeness. Second, gradient-decoupled private adaptation applies this temperature only to a client-private prediction pathway, while training the shared federated model with a standard, untempered objective. This enables sample-specific, client-local confidence adaptation without allowing confidence-dependent gradients to perturb shared representation learning. Across four multimodal datasets, Flux achieves the highest average macro-F1 on every dataset, outperforming the strongest dataset-specific baseline by 0.8~2.2 points and by 1.6 points on average. Additional analyses demonstrate favorable calibration, temperature sensitivity to both modality missingness and input corruption, and more stable shared optimization under private-only tempering. Our code is available at https://github.com/AdibaOrz/Flux.

Residual connections rely on a static residual pathway, and are essential for training deep neural networks. Hyper-connections (HC) increase the expressivity of residual routing by incorporating multiple residual streams and learning dynamic information flow, while manifold-constrained (mHC) variants stabilize training through doubly stochastic residual mixing. However, a generator-level bottleneck remains in existing methods: they use dense, unstructured generators for pre-branch aggregation, residual mixing, and post-branch redistribution, which results in parameter count growing rapidly with the number of streams. To address this issue, we propose \underline{\textbf{T}}ensorized \underline{\textbf{E}}fficient \underline{\textbf{M}}anifold-constrained \underline{\textbf{P}}arameterization for \underline{\textbf{E}}xpressive Residual \underline{\textbf{R}}outing (\textbf{TEMPER}), which represents these generators as multi-way tensors over the input-stream, feature, and output-stream modes, and parameterizes them using tensor networks. Such a structured low-rank formulation is shown to preserve token-dependent manifold-constrained routing interface while substantially reducing parameter growth. It also promotes interpretability and intuition, as: i) tensor ranks control the dimensionality of the learned routing subspace, with full ranks recovering dense routing; while ii) the generator approximation errors bound differences in routing logits and, consequently, in the routed-block outputs. Comprehensive experiments show that TEMPER matches or outperforms existing methods across language modeling and commonsense reasoning tasks, while requiring substantially fewer additional parameters. At eight residual streams, TEMPER achieves the best CORE score while using about $84\%$ fewer additional parameters than mHC, thus showing a stronger performance-parameter efficiency trade-off.

Preference alignment often makes large language models (LLMs) overconfident and poorly calibrated. Traditional post-hoc temperature scaling is inherently domain-dependent: a temperature fitted on one domain does not generalize across domains. This motivates us to modify model parameters during training to improve calibration. We propose maximizing the entropy of predictive distributions as the calibration objective, which directly targets overconfidence by discouraging overly concentrated predictions. Inspired by temperature scaling, we realize this through a bilevel optimization formulation, where the lower level trains the model under a parametric loss and the upper level selects loss hyperparameters to maximize entropy. To make the framework practical at LLM scale, we adopt an efficient first-order approximation that avoids explicit second-order computation. Across both multiple-choice and open-ended generative question answering, experiments demonstrate that our method yields well-calibrated LLMs with particular advantages in out-of-domain generalization.

Self-supervised pretraining objectives are spatially uniform: the teacher temperature and the per-patch loss weight are identical everywhere in the image, so a lesion a few patches wide contributes no more to the training signal than the surrounding parenchyma. Prior work biases the views toward annotated regions, which changes what the model sees but adds no pressure on the objective. We instead condition the targets of self-distillation, a method we call SALT (Spatially Adaptive Label-guided Temperature). Weak, box-derived labels, available only during pretraining, define a compact region on the encoder's patch grid, inside which the teacher's softmax temperature is sharpened and the masked-patch loss is up-weighted. The objectives, the masking policy and the centering statistics are otherwise unchanged, and at every downstream use the encoder is a plain feature extractor with no labels and no conditioning. We evaluate by freezing the encoder and training only a lightweight multi-depth CenterNet-style head, detecting lesions in 3D on four CT cohorts, and we isolate the mechanism against a backbone identical in architecture, pretraining data, schedule and label-guided cropping but with no target conditioning. We report patch-level separability, 3D detection stratified by cohort and by lesion size, box quality, and a detector-free probe in which a single frozen patch embedding re-identifies a lesion in a follow-up scan without registration, masks or fine-tuning. Because the conditioning is expressed through a spatial indicator rather than through label semantics, the formulation admits any weak spatial annotation; we instantiate and validate it for lesions.

First-generation AI weather models are often reported to underperform at extremes, mostly in reanalysis-based evaluations of deterministic regression systems. We verify eleven physical and AI forecast systems against European synoptic, solar, and rain-gauge stations over ten months for 10 m wind, 2 m temperature, hourly shortwave accumulation, and hourly precipitation, scoring mean absolute error (MAE) against ECMWF IFS in ERA5 1991-2020 climatological regimes. Among these systems, AI models do not show a uniform relative-skill deficit in the tails. Jua EPT-2.1 Europa leads all-conditions wind (+8.4%), while Jua EPT-2 HRRR leads temperature overall (+12.1%) and in the heat regime (+19.6 +/- 2.2%). EPT-2.1 Europa and DWD ICON Global lead at gale-force wind. Jua EPT-2.1 Helios leads solar overall (+10.2 +/- 1.7%), in overcast conditions (+16.4 +/- 3.4%), and in the clear-sky tail (+24.8 +/- 5.4%). For precipitation, three Jua models gain 14-15% at moderate intensity and 9-11% at P75-P95; EPT-2 Reasoning remains ahead above P95 (+1.7 +/- 0.5%). Failures are model-specific: ECMWF AIFS loses 4.9 +/- 2.0% in the heat tail, while NOAA GFS loses 22.8 +/- 2.0% there. Every model, including numerical weather prediction systems, shows a shared conditional bias toward the centre of the observed distribution, with an inter-model spread several times smaller than the shared signal. Missing relative skill at extremes is therefore not a property of AI weather models as a class, but of particular AI and physical models.

We propose Kohn-Sham Spectral Embedding (KSSE), an energy-based model replacing the top-layer classifier of convolutional networks with a sparse-graph spectral embedding at the Nishimori temperature of an associated Random-Bond Ising Model the spectral detectability threshold where class structure becomes marginally distinguishable from disorder. Mapping pre-trained features onto quasi-cyclic low-density parity-check graphs, we construct a regularized Laplacian (Bethe-Hessian) as an effective Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian, yielding D independent spectral problems-one per feature channel-solvable in $O(N log N + k_{mode}^{2} N)$ time by FFT on circulant blocks (Pontryagin self-duality), with low-mode Rayleigh-Ritz refinement ($k_{mode}=5$). Physically, this is a k.p effective-mass reduction on a one-dimensional ring crystal: the circulant support is the perfect crystal, the data weights a slowly varying impurity potential, and the Nishimori crossing a Fermi level at the band edge. Star-domain surgery optimizes the graph: instead of eliminating all frustrated cycles impossible without destroying the codewords-edge shifts create certified convexity around codewords with bounded residual frustration, with multi-scale fractal certification (basins $D_{2}<1$ vs rough landscapes $D_{2}>3$). The theory includes a generalized Ihara-Bass identity with a sharp spectral threshold, a non-backtracking growth trichotomy with frustration as a gauge-invariant $Z_{2}$ flux, a trapping-set spectral test, exact channel separability with a cup-product obstruction, plus loop-series, convexity, surgery, and quasi-stationarity bounds. On ImageNet-1000 with frozen EfficientNet-B4 features (D=1792) under a transductive protocol, KSSE achieves 88.93% Top-1 accuracy with ~21.24M parameters-beating Swin-L (197M, 86.4-87.3%) and matching the lower end of ViT-H/14 (632M, 88.0-89.5%) with 10x and 30x fewer parameters.

Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states. Yet in a warming world, improving early warnings of extreme heat is an increasingly critical challenge. Here we evaluate six state-of-the-art deep learning weather emulators - Pangu-Weather, FuXi, ArchesWeather, AIFS, GraphCast and Aurora - alongside leading dynamical systems and statistical baselines in forecasting global near-surface temperature and extreme heat at lead times of 10-15 days. We find that several emulators rival or even surpass physics-based forecasts in deterministic temperature skill, but do so at the cost of reduced spectral fidelity, in a process widely known as blurring. While all models show some degree of predictive skill for extreme heat, most emulators under-represent peak intensities, and IFS recall is greater than that of any of the emulators. These results highlight both the emerging potential of AI to enhance extended range temperature prediction, and the remaining challenges in delivering reliable, actionable early warnings in a changing climate.

High-temperature sampling is one of the primary mechanisms for increasing diversity in LLMs. Recent advances in truncation-based sampling techniques have helped mitigate drawbacks of high-temperature sampling such as neural text degeneration, thereby enabling greater diversity in LLM outputs without sacrificing coherence. However, increasing the entropy of the token probability distribution via high temperatures has also been shown to weaken model guardrails by reducing the model's refusal response in the presence of harmful prompts. Despite the potential benefits of high-temperature sampling and the importance of maintaining model safety, there is a lack of existing solutions for maintaining the refusal behavior of LLMs under a higher entropy regime. To address this gap, we systematically study how temperature influences refusal behavior in LLMs and propose an efficient sequential decoding approach which preserves a model's greedy decoding refusal response at high temperatures while incurring minimal additional latency. Through extensive experiments, we show that our approach preserves 91-99% of the greedy decoding refusal behavior across three benchmark datasets without compromising the model's high-temperature response for safe prompts. Our work demonstrates how refusal behavior can be maintained in an efficient manner for applications which require high-temperature sampling.

The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al. estimates the irreducible error of a binary task directly from probability-valued labels. Recent work by Ushio et al. showed that this estimator is fragile when the probabilities are not the true posterior: even perfectly calibrated soft labels can yield a substantially inaccurate estimate, and they propose isotonic calibration as a consistent remedy. We complement that line of work by characterizing exactly how the most widely used post-hoc calibration map -- temperature scaling -- distorts the proxy. We prove an exact, model-free identity reducing the temperature-scaled proxy to the classifier's margin distribution, from which we obtain (i) strict monotonicity in the temperature and (ii) a continuous bijection from the temperature axis onto the open interval (0, 1/2), so that a fixed classifier -- with fixed decisions and fixed 0-1 error -- can be made to report any proxy value whatsoever. Under a Gaussian model of the logits we further derive a two-parameter closed form for the entire proxy-versus-temperature curve. Across CIFAR-10, Fashion-MNIST, and SVHN (eight binary tasks), the proxy varies by 56x to 980x at constant test error, the closed form reproduces the empirical curve to within 0.018, and the calibration temperature that minimizes the expected calibration error does not coincide with any stable proxy value. Our results give a precise, predictive account of the distortion whose existence motivates calibration-based remedies, and they reinforce the practical recommendation that a proxy value is meaningful only together with the mechanism that produced its probabilities.

Temperature scaling is the dominant post-hoc calibration method in modern deep learning. Its theoretical justification rests on an assumption that is rarely stated explicitly: that ground-truth labels are one-hot and deterministic. In practice, labels are frequently soft, crowd-sourced, or genuinely distributional, reflecting real disagreement among human annotators rather than annotation noise. We study whether temperature scaling retains its calibration properties when this assumption is violated, and whether any resulting degradation depends on model scale. Using CIFAR-10H and ChaosNLI, two publicly available datasets with human-annotated soft label distributions, we evaluate three model scales per modality under both hard one-hot and soft distributional label targets. Across all nine configurations we find a positive soft-label calibration gap: temperature scaling calibrated on hard labels consistently underperforms an oracle calibrated directly on soft labels, with Brier Score gaps ranging from 0.002 to 0.134. The gap grows monotonically with model scale in the vision domain and on the SNLI-derived split of ChaosNLI, and is substantially larger in the language domain (mean gap 0.079) than in vision (mean gap 0.003). A scale-ordering reversal on the MNLI-derived split remains after matched-domain training; we treat it as inconclusive for the scale hypothesis and attribute it primarily to near-chance accuracy on that split. As a second post-hoc baseline, multiclass isotonic regression yields the same qualitative conclusion: positive soft-label gaps in all nine configurations, and larger gaps in language than in vision. These findings suggest that calibration protocols built on majority-vote labels systematically misstate model reliability wherever label ambiguity is structural, with direct consequences for deployment in safety-critical settings.

Unconventional computing systems must demonstrate robust performance under real-world environmental conditions to enable practical deployments. We have recently proposed superparamagnetic nanodot ensembles driven by strain-induced magnetoelectric coupling as exciting candidates for use as ultra-low energy consumption reservoir computing substrates. However, because their dynamics are governed by thermal activation effects, these systems are intrinsically sensitive to ambient temperature fluctuations, leading to degraded task performance when operated outside the temperature range used during training. In this paper we simulate how temperature variations affect the magnetization dynamics of such superparamagnetic ensembles, and quantify how this affects task performance. We then show how heterogeneous nanodot patterns that incorporate different sizes of nanodots with different characteristic timescales for thermal activation mitigate this problem. Benchmark results on the NARMA-10 task show that introducing optimized heterogeneity stabilizes performance of the reservoirs across a wide range of ambient temperatures (5-35°C), with little loss of ultimate performance. We also characterize the trade-off between performance and temperature stability and show that it can be tuned via reservoir hyperparameters. Our study demonstrates a key step in making these novel devices suitable for real-world deployment.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has been increasingly adopted to reduce hallucinations and strengthen the factual grounding of large language models (LLMs). While robustness to errors in the retrieval process has been explored, the impact of ideological bias on LLM outputs has been overlooked. For instance, if the retrieved material contains ideological positions, the RAG may transmit, amplify, or suppress such ideological discourses in its outputs. In this study, we address this issue by examining the influence of the RAG framework, comprising ideological discourses, in LLM-generated answers. To this end, we applied Lexical Multidimensional Analysis (LMDA) on a corpus of 1,117 COVID-19 treatment articles, identifying three ideological discourses. This corpus is then used as the external knowledge source for the RAG. We assessed several LLMs by having the models answer ideological questions at different sampling temperatures. The generated texts were assessed semantically and lexically based on their similarities with ideological reference texts. Our findings show that the RAG framework is prone to transferring ideological discourses into LLM responses, with sampling temperature having a measurable impact on the strength of this transfer. Discoursive alignment between generated answers and the reference text is highest at moderate temperatures, where models balance stochasticity with retrieval grounding, and drops at low temperatures, indicating that overly deterministic sampling suppresses discourse transfer.

Diffusion models faithfully reproduce their training distribution, but also inherit its imbalances and leave rare or under-represented modes hard to reach. A natural inference-time remedy is to sample from the high-temperature target $p^{(γ)}_0(x) \propto p_0(x)^γ$ for $0 < γ< 1$, which flattens dominant modes and lifts rare ones. However, naive score scaling while correctly reweighting modes also inflates the per-mode variance, breaking the reverse diffusion process and degrading sample quality. We introduce variance-corrective time shifting, a training-free fix that queries the network at a shifted timestep and scales the resulting score by $γ$, canceling the variance inflation while preserving the mode reweighting. The correction turns simple temperature sampling into a practical diversity knob for pretrained diffusion and flow-matching backbones with no retraining, and we demonstrate consistent gains at minimal cost to sample quality and condition fidelity across DiT, Stable Diffusion and Motion Diffusion models. We further show that the timing of the temperature intervention enables coarse-to-fine control: high-noise stages drive compositional diversity across modes, while low-noise stages drive local appearance variation under a fixed composition.

Inferring latent physical properties from sensory observations is a fundamental challenge in machine perception. Among available sensing modalities, thermal imaging is particularly promising because temperature evolution is directly governed by heat-transfer physics and therefore encodes information about underlying thermophysical properties of a scene. Recovering spatially resolved thermophysical properties from thermal observations could transform applications ranging from digital twins and infrastructure monitoring to robotics and scientific imaging. However, existing thermal scene reconstruction methods can recover temperature fields in complex 3D environments without identifying the thermophyiscal properties that govern thermal evolution, whereas inverse methods provide physically interpretable parameter estimation but typically rely on simplified geometries and controlled experimental conditions. Here we introduce ThermoField, a framework that unifies thermal scene reconstruction and thermophysical parameter estimation through differentiable heat-transfer simulation. The proposed framework represents these quantities as spatially varying neural fields and constrains them through scene geometry, governing heat-transfer physics, and temporal thermal observations. We demonstrate that ThermoField jointly reconstructs geometry, estimates spatially varying thermal diffusivity, and predicts thermal evolution under previously unseen environmental conditions. By integrating neural scene representations with differentiable heat-transfer solver, the framework enables physically interpretable parameter inference in complex 3D scenes. Our results establish a bridge between thermal scene reconstruction and inverse heat-transfer analysis, providing a unified approach for geometry reconstruction, thermophysical property estimation, and predictive thermal simulation from thermal observations.

While accuracy, robustness, and calibration are all essential for reliable neural networks, they are often studied separately; developing models that satisfy all three simultaneously remains a central challenge. Lipschitz-constrained models guarantee robustness by design, yet the manual selection of the Lipschitz constraint L governs the resulting accuracy-robustness trade-off, and their calibration properties remain largely underexplored. In this work, we highlight a theoretical and empirical link between the enforced Lipschitz constraint and Temperature Scaling, a state-of-the-art calibration method. Specifically, we find that for a given training scheme, there exists a non-trivial value L* that yields an out-of-the-box calibrated network, and that calibration acts as a principled criterion to select a well-defined operating point on the accuracy-robustness Pareto front. Leveraging these insights, we introduce Lipschitz Scaling Training (LiST), a novel training paradigm that iteratively adjusts the global Lipschitz constant to reach this operating point. Through a margin parameter in the training loss, LiST further enables the construction of a fully calibrated Pareto front, allowing users to navigate the accuracy-robustness trade-off while remaining calibrated throughout. At convergence, LiST also enables the reintegration of calibration data into training, improving sample efficiency without sacrificing calibration. We validate LiST on CIFAR-10/100 and Tiny-ImageNet, demonstrating competitive accuracy and robustness against constrained and unconstrained baselines, while remaining calibrated out of the box. Code is available at GitHub.

Background: Growing individual case safety report (ICSR) volumes have intensified demand for scalable automated causality assessment. Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise, yet performance on clinically demanding tasks remains suboptimal and inference-time hyperparameter optimization has not been investigated. Objective: To develop a Gaussian Process (GP)-compatible optimization objective and investigate whether temperature optimization improves LLM-expert agreement on Naranjo causality assessment of FAERS ICSRs. Methods: Expert causality assessments were performed on 723 stratified FAERS cases. OpenAI's GPT-5.2 was evaluated using chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting. Four composite metrics were developed: Weighted Cosine Similarity (WCS), Information-Weighted Agreement Score (IWAS), Entropy-Weighted Agreement and Cosine Similarity Score (EWACS), and Consensus-Weighted Cosine Similarity (CWCS) and Bayesian optimization using a GP surrogate with Probability of Improvement (PoI) acquisition was applied across temperature [0, 2]. Results: GPT-5.2 outperformed prior biomedical LLMs at baseline (T = 0), achieving 74.1% agreement on question 5 and 65.4% on question 10 of Naranjo algorithm. Entropy analysis identified these as the sole informative optimization targets. Temperature showed no systematic population-level effect (\b{eta} = 0.002, p = 0.959). EWACS-guided Bayesian optimization improved causality classification agreement from 45.0% to 72.0% (+27 pp), with the largest gain in Doubtful cases (+42.9 pp). Conclusion: EWACS was identified as the optimal GP-compatible metric. The absence of a universal temperature optimum indicates LLM performance is driven primarily by ICSR content, yet case-specific temperature selection produced meaningful improvements, supporting temperature optimization for LLM-assisted pharmacovigilance.

Modern LLM deployments often combine quantization with higher sampling temperatures to reduce cost, latency, or repetition, yet safety evaluations usually treat these as fixed implementation details. We test whether models that are safe at FP16 with greedy decoding remain safe after quantization and stochastic sampling, or whether the two factors amplify each other. We evaluate 8 instruction-tuned models from five families across 3 precisions and 6 temperatures, covering 144 configurations on 7 harmfulness benchmarks and generating about 2.0 million responses, which are scored by a six-judge safety ensemble. Contrary to concerns that low-bit deployment erodes alignment, we find that standard quantization is approximately safety-neutral: for 7 of 8 models, AWQ INT4 keeps attack success within about 1.6 percentage points of FP16 or lowers it, with clear degradation only for SmolLM3-3B (34.5% to 44.1%). However, the larger risk comes from sampling: higher temperatures sharply increase decision instability, with DFR reaching 41.9% at T = 1.0, even when average ASR changes only modestly. The two factors do not compound: our Compound Degradation Index remains sub-additive (-0.071 to +0.018), indicating that quantization partially offsets rather than amplifies temperature-induced degradation. Finally, a per-benchmark breakdown shows that single-benchmark evaluation badly understates risk: several models scoring 0% on AdvBench exceed 80% on ManyHarm. Standard INT4/INT8 quantization can therefore be reasonable for well-aligned models, but safety claims should report multi-sample stability across multiple benchmarks rather than rely on a single benchmark at greedy decoding.

LLM-as-judge ("grader") components are now standard in evaluation harnesses, including safety evaluations where a pass/fail verdict may gate downstream deployment decisions. A widespread assumption is that setting the grader's sampling temperature to 0 makes grading deterministic. We test this assumption against a real safety-evaluation codebase (Japan AISI's open-source aisev) and show it fails on two levels. First, the harness invokes its grader without setting temperature or seed; the underlying provider silently applies its default of 1.0, so items near the decision boundary flip pass/fail across identical runs (per-item disagreement up to ~50% over 20 runs). Second, pinning temperature=0 reduces but does not eliminate flips: across 690 API calls spanning two providers, three model tiers, and five sampling configurations, 1-2 of 7 borderline items remain non-reproducible even under forced greedy decoding (top_k=1). Claude Opus 4.7/4.8 has since deprecated temperature entirely, rendering the primary mitigation inapplicable to newer model generations. These findings expose a structural gap: evaluation harnesses that report single-run verdicts without variance or grader-disagreement metrics can present noise as a safety property. We release a reproduction harness (690 calls, 7 conditions) and recommend that harnesses treat grader disagreement as a first-class health metric alongside the scores themselves.

Speculative decoding accelerates inference by letting a draft model propose tokens for a target model to verify, raising a concrete safety question: at temperature zero, can draft-side behavior leak into safety-scored outputs? We answer with Typical-Acceptance Invariance Screen (TAIS), a behavioral-equivalence screen that pairs target-only and speculative outputs on the same safety battery and requires byte-identity evidence, TOST equivalence at +/-3pp, and per-task Cohen's h below a calibrated null cutoff of |h| < 0.1. Applied to a 16,783-sample confirmatory core plus 44,066 matched expansion samples (fp16/bf16 execution, canonical and DPO-adversarial drafts, GPTQ-4bit drafts, two seeds, and four safety benchmarks), the tested temperature-zero vLLM stacks show no detectable safety divergence under TAIS. The largest absolute Cohen's h on matched target-only versus speculative refusal is 0.024, roughly an order of magnitude below the conventional trivial-effect floor; 25 of 27 per-task TOST contrasts pass at the +/-3pp margin (the two non-pass contrasts are capability-domain Wald-CI edge cases at identical ceiling rates, not genuine non-equivalence); the DPO-adversarial draft produces byte-identical output to the canonical draft across 4,006 samples; and bf16 changes 36%-53% of output bytes without moving any per-task safety rate outside equivalence. A separate 4,006-sample 70B production-scale probe, which lacks a matched 70B target-only arm and is therefore not counted as a TAIS pass, produces AdvBench refusal 0.839 over 700 AdvBench completions with 95% Wilson CI [0.809, 0.864]. We make no claim about sampling temperatures, untested frameworks, untested model families, or tree-speculation variants such as EAGLE and Medusa.

We introduce PHAST-Net, an attention-guided, physics-informed network for unified estimation of Ideal Time-Frequency Representations (ITFRs), spanning spectral, tempo-based, metrical, and harmonic representations such as Spectrograms, Tempograms, and Metrograms. PHAST-Net learns an application-general mapping from a constellation of wavelet transforms, the proposed Continuous Log-frequency Adaptive Wavelet Transform (CLAWT), to high-resolution, cross-term-suppressed time-frequency (T-F) representations. The proposed constellation of CLAWTs is selected through Cohen's class kernel analysis to maximise curvature coverage in a logarithmic-frequency T-F plane tailored to harmonic signal structure. PHAST-Net further incorporates a proposed physics-informed auxiliary reprojection loss designed to reconstruct the idealised observed CLAWT constellation from the predicted ITFR and the corresponding Cohen's class kernels during training. This auxiliary objective promotes transform consistency and energy conservation, mitigates pathological target sparsity, and enhances optimisation stability. Attention layers further promote effective cross-term suppression across the input constellation. The log-frequency formulation also enables Harmonic PHAST-Net, which estimates a Harmonic ITFR that isolates fundamental structure, supporting robust fundamental-only representations for speech and music, such as derived fundamental Tempograms and Metrograms. We further introduce Spline-PHAST-Net, which parameterises detected and associated T-F ridges as continuous spline trajectories, enabling arbitrary-grid re-rendering and signal reconstruction. Trained on an effectively unbounded procedurally generated dataset, PHAST-Net demonstrates improved accuracy over established approaches, providing a unified framework for high-resolution, cross-term-robust analysis of speech, music, and broader nonstationary signals.

Deep neural networks often produce poorly calibrated confidence estimates, overstating their certainty even when predictions are incorrect. Temperature Scaling remains the most widely used posthoc calibration method due to its simplicity and effectiveness, yet its global, uniform rescaling of logits fails to correct the highly heterogeneous structure of miscalibration observed across the confidence spectrum. In particular, the largest correctness confidence discrepancies arise in different quantile regions depending on the setting, low confidence predictions, where uncertainty matters most, tend to exhibit the largest correctness confidence discrepancies, which standard TS leaves largely unaddressed. We introduce Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling (QaTS), a simple and efficient post hoc calibration method that adapts the temperature as a function of a predictions empirical confidence quantile. By mapping confidences into the quantile space, QaTS normalizes the calibration problem, makes the structure of miscalibration explicit and enables a monotone temperature function that adapts across quantiles while leaving well calibrated high confidence predictions largely unchanged. preserving high confidence behavior. This quantile aware formulation aligns naturally with a reparameterized Expected Calibration Error (ECE) objective and yields a sample wise temperature that is robust across a variety of challenging scenarios, such as class imbalance and distributional shifts. Across a broad range of datasets, architectures, evaluation scenarios and diverse tasks, QaTS consistently, and substantially, outperforms state of the art post hoc calibration methods, delivering more reliable and trustworthy confidence estimates without modifying model predictions.

We propose a statistical-field framework for text generated by large language models (LLMs), treating token embeddings as continuous spin variables on a one-dimensional chain. Defining a susceptibility from the connected two-point correlator and an order parameter from the ensemble-averaged embedding field, we vary the \texttt{softmax} temperature $T$ and observe a sharp susceptibility peak near a characteristic $T_c$ with power-law-like scaling, a concurrent rapid change in the order parameter, and a collapse onto a single semantic direction below $T_c$. The intrinsic dimension estimated by the two nearest neighbor (TwoNN) method independently corroborates these findings, reaching a minimum near $T_c$. Results are robust across model scales (Qwen3: 0.6B--32B) and prompt categories. While the phenomenology closely resembles a continuous phase transition, the non-equilibrium nature of autoregressive generation warrants further investigation. Our framework provides quantitative tools for probing the collective statistical structure of LLM outputs and suggests connections between decoding strategies and critical phenomena.

Online reviews provide valuable insights into the perceived quality of facets of a product or service. While aspect-based sentiment analysis has focused on extracting these facets from reviews, there is less work understanding the impact of each aspect on overall perception. This is particularly challenging given correlations among aspects, making it difficult to isolate the effects of each. This paper introduces a methodology based on recent advances in text-based causal analysis, specifically CausalBERT, to disentangle the effect of each factor on overall review ratings. We enhance CausalBERT with three key improvements: temperature scaling for better calibrated treatment assignment estimates; hyperparameter optimization to reduce confound overadjustment; and interpretability methods to characterize discovered confounds. In this work, we treat the textual mentions in reviews as proxies for real-world attributes. We validate our approach on real and semi-synthetic data from over 600K reviews of U.S. K-12 schools. We find that the proposed enhancements result in more reliable estimates, and that perception of school administration and performance on benchmarks are significant drivers of overall school ratings.

Reference-free evaluation of large language model (LLM) creativity relies on perplexity, entropy, and top-1 margin. We show that a much stronger signal lives one step earlier in the pipeline: in how sampling temperature \emph{reshapes} the model's token distribution before the next token is drawn. On Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct generations of 500 open-ended creative prompts at $T \in \{0.3, 0.8, 1.5\}$, a single per-token feature derived from this reshaping predicts the within-prompt creativity rank at Spearman $ρ{=}0.918$ against an averaged gpt-4o,/,gemini-2.5-pro judge ($n{=}500$) and $ρ{=}0.870$ against a three-rater human-majority ranking ($n{=}150$). Each of four standard reference-free baselines (self-perplexity, mean predictive entropy, top-1 margin, gzip compression ratio) tops out at $|ρ|\!\approx\!0.76$ on both ground truths: a gap of $+0.165$ on averaged-LLM and $+0.110$ on human-majority, both far larger than the spread among the baselines themselves. The two ground-truth panels agree with each other at $ρ{=}0.83$, above the inter-human ceiling of $ρ{=}0.77$, so the comparison is not bottlenecked by judge noise. Mechanistically, the win comes from a sharp distributional signature of the incoherence regime: at $T{=}1.5$ the cumulative-mass width $n_{95}(q)$ inflates from $\sim\!1$ to ${\sim}\!131$ tokens and post-temperature mass leaks off the pre-temperature top-$90\%$ plausible set by about $13$ percentage points. The per-token aggregates do not separate $T{=}0.8$ from $T{=}0.3$; discriminating the two coherent regimes is left to sequence-level features.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards improves the reasoning ability of large language models, but often suffers from entropy collapse, in which increasingly concentrated policies reduce rollout diversity and useful learning signals. Existing remedies either constrain the RL objective (e.g., entropy regularization) or adjust sampling temperature during rollout collection, but these interventions remain external to the model parameters. We propose Temperature-Scaled On-Policy Self-Distillation (TS-OPSD), a lightweight policy reheating method that internalizes the exploratory effect of temperature into model parameters. Starting from an entropy-collapsed RL checkpoint, TS-OPSD constructs a self-teacher by applying high-temperature scaling to the model's own logits, then distills the resulting smoother distribution back into the student. This policy reheating requires no external teacher, privileged data, or additional inference cost. Experiments on Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base show that policy reheating yields a stronger initialization for continued RL than both standard continued RL and rollout-level temperature reheating. Further analyses show that TS-OPSD mainly reduces output sharpness while preserving intermediate representations, top candidate sets, and reasoning capability. These results suggest that entropy restoration can serve as a simple post-collapse intervention for extending reasoning-oriented RL.

Reverse Kullback-Leibler (RKL) divergence is widely favored over forward KL (FKL) in large language models (LLM) distillation, yet this preference is largely based on comparisons that omit the temperature $τ$, overlooking its central role in softening teacher distributions and improving knowledge transfer. In this work, we revisit temperature in LLM distillation and show that it fundamentally changes the comparison between FKL and RKL. Our analysis reveals an asymmetric effect: temperature substantially enriches FKL with non-dominant token signals, whereas it mainly rescales RKL gradients, causing FKL to benefit much more from $τ$ scaling than RKL. This asymmetry overturns the standard empirical conclusion: although RKL outperforms FKL at $τ=1$, FKL consistently surpasses RKL at higher temperatures across instruction-following benchmarks. Moreover, the impact of temperature is not limited to FKL; it improves a broader family of distillation objectives, enabling simple KL-based methods to achieve competitive performance against recent state-of-the-art LLM distillation approaches.

A long standing challenge in computational chemistry and biophysics is efficiently sampling the Boltzmann distribution of molecules. Advances in generative modeling have been proposed to address the limitations of conventional sampling techniques by eliminating the computational cost of simulation. A promising direction is iteratively finetuning diffusion models along a temperature ladder whereby training data is generated via importance sampling during inference-time annealing. Unfortunately, these methods require computing a divergence over the score field to estimate importance weights, rendering them intractable for larger systems. Here we present scalable inference-time annealing (SITA), which retrains flow-based models to generate samples at progressively lower temperatures using an energy-based model to facilitate fast surrogate likelihoods. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on both Alanine Dipeptide and Alanine Tripeptide while avoiding costly divergence terms. Our code is available at https://github.com/countrsignal/sita.git

Recent work has identified a counterintuitive phenomenon termed "Hyperfitting", where fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) to near-zero training loss on small datasets surprisingly enhances open-ended generation quality and mitigates repetition in greedy decoding. While effective, the underlying mechanism remains poorly understood, with the extremely low-entropy output distributions suggesting a potential equivalence to simple temperature scaling. In this work, we demonstrate that this phenomenon is fundamentally distinct from distribution sharpening; entropy-matched control experiments reveal that temperature scaling fails to replicate the diversity gains of hyperfitting. Furthermore, we falsify the hypothesis of static vocabulary reweighting, showing through ablation studies that hyperfitting relies on a dynamic, context-dependent rank reordering mechanism. Layer-wise analysis localizes this effect to a "Terminal Expansion" in the final transformer block, where a substantial geometric expansion of the feature space (Delta Dim approx +80.8) facilitates the promotion of deep-tail tokens. Additionally, we introduce Late-Stage LoRA, a targeted fine-tuning strategy that updates only the final 5 layers, yielding robust generation with minimal parameter updates

Knowledge distillation (KD) transfers knowledge from a high-capacity teacher to a compact student by matching their predictive distributions, with temperature scaling serving as a central mechanism for smoothing teacher predictions and exposing informative "dark knowledge" beyond the hard label. However, the standard fixed-temperature design is inherently sample-agnostic. Since samples differ in logit scale and learning difficulty, a single global temperature produces teacher soft labels with highly inconsistent entropy: some predictions remain overly sharp and provide limited inter-class information, whereas others become over-smoothed and lose class-discriminative information. Moreover, sharing the same temperature between teacher and student further imposes rigid logit-scale alignment despite their capacity mismatch. To address these limitations, we propose CIST (Consistently Informative Soft-label Temperature), which assigns separate sample-wise adaptive temperatures to the teacher and student. This design produces consistently informative teacher soft labels while relaxing rigid teacher--student logit-scale matching. It also reweights the distillation objective according to teacher confidence and student learning difficulty. Theoretically, we show that teacher-label entropy is largely governed by the ratio between the maximum teacher logit and the temperature, providing a principled basis for adaptive smoothing. Empirically, CIST mitigates the inconsistency induced by fixed temperature, and experiments on both vision and language distillation tasks show consistent improvements over standard KD and strong baselines with negligible computational overhead.

Fairness in toxicity classification involves three integrated axes: ranking, calibration, and abstention. Training-time interventions and post-hoc safety mechanisms cannot be evaluated independently because the former determines the efficacy of the latter. We compare Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM), instance-level reweighting, and Group DRO across these axes, combined with temperature scaling, confidence-based abstention, and per-identity threshold optimization. Evaluation uses subgroup AUC, BPSN/BNSP AUC, error gaps, and per-subgroup Expected Calibration Error (ECE) with bootstrap CIs ($n = 1000$). We report four findings. (1) Calibration disparity is a hidden fairness violation. ERM has near-perfect aggregate calibration ($0.013$) but is significantly miscalibrated across all identity subgroups ($+0.029$ to $+0.134$). (2) Training interventions reshape rather than eliminate disparity. Reweighted ERM improves ranking (BPSN AUC $+0.06$ to $+0.12$) but worsens the calibration-fairness gap by up to $+0.232$. Group DRO eliminates calibration disparity but only by becoming uniformly miscalibrated globally (ECE $0.118$). (3) Post-hoc methods inherit training failure modes. Temperature scaling fails because miscalibration is non-uniform. Confidence-based abstention works under ERM but breaks under DRO, where the risk-coverage curve rises with deferral. (4) Abstention itself is unfair. Confidence-based deferral helps background content far more than identity-mentioning content. We argue that SRAI fairness requires a multi-axis framework: methods that differ only in aggregate ranking can differ sharply in failure modes that determine real-world harm.

Inference-time alignment techniques offer a lightweight alternative or complement to costly reinforcement learning, while enabling continual adaptation as alignment objectives and reward targets evolve. Existing theoretical analyses justify these methods as approximations to sampling from distributions optimally tilted toward a given reward model. We extend these techniques by introducing reference-model temperature adjustment, which leads to further generalization of inference-time alignment to ensembles of generative reward models combined as a sharpened logarithmic opinion pool (SLOP). To mitigate reward hacking, we propose an algorithm for calibrating SLOP weight parameters and experimentally demonstrate that it improves robustness while preserving alignment performance.

A privacy-preserving clothing classification scheme is presented to enable secure occupant-centric control (OCC) systems. Although the utilization of camera images for HVAC control has been widely studied to optimize thermal comfort, privacy protection of occupant images has not been considered in prior works. While various privacy-preserving methods have been proposed for image classification, applying conventional schemes results in severe accuracy degradation. In this paper, we introduce a privacy-preserving classification method using Vision Transformer (ViT) applied to clothing insulation estimation. In an experiment using the DeepFashion dataset categorized by clothing insulation, while the conventional pixel-based method suffers a severe accuracy drop, our scheme maintains a high accuracy on encrypted images, showing no degradation from plain images across all categories.

We propose Noise-Based Spectral Embedding (NBSE), a physics-informed framework for selecting informative features from high-dimensional data without greedy search. NBSE constructs a sparse similarity graph on the samples and identifies the Nishimori temperature $β_N$ the critical inverse temperature at which the Bethe Hessian becomes singular. The corresponding smallest eigenvector captures the dominant mode of an intrinsically degree-corrected diffusion process, naturally reweighting nodes to prevent hub dominance. By transposing the data matrix and applying NBSE in feature space, we obtain a one-dimensional spectral embedding that reveals groups of redundant or semantically related dimensions; balanced binning then selects one representative per group. We prove that coloured Gaussian perturbations shift $β_N$ by at most $O(\barσ^2)$, guaranteeing robustness to measurement noise. Experiments on ImageNet embeddings from MobileNetV2 and EfficientNet-B4 show that NBSE preserves classification accuracy even under aggressive compression: on EfficientNet-B4 the accuracy drop is below $1\%$ when retaining only $30\%$ of features, outperforming ANOVA $F$-test and random selection by up to $6.8\%$.

Even when decoding with temperature $T=0$, large language models (LLMs) can produce divergent outputs for identical inputs. Recent work by Thinking Machines Lab highlights implementation-level sources of nondeterminism, including batch-size variation, kernel non-invariance, and floating-point non-associativity. In this short note we formalize this behavior by introducing the notion of \emph{background temperature} $T_{\mathrm{bg}}$, the effective temperature induced by an implementation-dependent perturbation process observed even when nominal $T=0$. We provide clean definitions, show how $T_{\mathrm{bg}}$ relates to a stochastic perturbation governed by the inference environment $I$, and propose an empirical protocol to estimate $T_{bg}$ via the equivalent temperature $T_n(I)$ of an ideal reference system. We conclude with a set of pilot experiments run on a representative pool from the major LLM providers that demonstrate the idea and outline implications for reproducibility, evaluation, and deployment.

Wildfire monitoring requires timely, actionable situational awareness from airborne platforms, yet existing aerial visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks do not evaluate wildfire-specific multimodal reasoning grounded in thermal measurements. We introduce WildFireVQA, a large-scale VQA benchmark for aerial wildfire monitoring that integrates RGB imagery with radiometric thermal data. WildFireVQA contains 6,097 RGB-thermal samples, where each sample includes an RGB image, a color-mapped thermal visualization, and a radiometric thermal TIFF, and is paired with 34 questions, yielding a total of 207,298 multiple-choice questions spanning presence and detection, classification, distribution and segmentation, localization and direction, cross-modal reasoning, and flight planning for operational wildfire intelligence. To improve annotation reliability, we combine multimodal large language model (MLLM)-based answer generation with sensor-driven deterministic labeling, manual verification, and intra-frame and inter-frame consistency checks. We further establish a comprehensive evaluation protocol for representative MLLMs under RGB, Thermal, and retrieval-augmented settings using radiometric thermal statistics. Experiments show that across task categories, RGB remains the strongest modality for current models, while retrieved thermal context yields gains for stronger MLLMs, highlighting both the value of temperature-grounded reasoning and the limitations of existing MLLMs in safety-critical wildfire scenarios. The dataset and benchmark code are open-source at https://github.com/mobiiin/WildFire_VQA.

Accurate prediction of thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries is essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and reliability of modern energy storage systems. Conventional data-driven approaches, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, can capture complex temporal dependencies but often violate thermodynamic principles, resulting in physically inconsistent predictions. Conversely, physics-based thermal models provide interpretability but are computationally expensive and difficult to parameterize for real-time applications. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a Physics-Informed Long Short-Term Memory (PI-LSTM) framework that integrates governing heat transfer equations directly into the deep learning architecture through a physics-based regularization term in the loss function. The model leverages multi-feature input sequences, including state of charge, voltage, current, mechanical stress, and surface temperature, to forecast battery temperature evolution while enforcing thermal diffusion constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen lithium-ion battery datasets demonstrate that the proposed PI-LSTM achieves an 81.9% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) and an 81.3% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to the standard LSTM baseline, while also outperforming CNN-LSTM and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models by wide margins. The inclusion of physical constraints enhances the model's generalization across diverse operating conditions and eliminates non-physical temperature oscillations. These results confirm that physics-informed deep learning offers a viable pathway toward interpretable, accurate, and real-time thermal management in next-generation battery systems.

Most existing robot simulators prioritize rigid-body dynamics and photorealistic rendering, but largely neglect the thermally and optically complex phenomena that characterize real-world fire environments. For robots envisioned as future firefighters, this limitation hinders both reliable capability evaluation and the generation of representative training data prior to deployment in hazardous scenarios. To address these challenges, we introduce Fire as a Service (FaaS), a novel, asynchronous co-simulation framework that augments existing robot simulators with high-fidelity and computationally efficient fire simulations. Our pipeline enables robots to experience accurate, multi-species thermodynamic heat transfer and visually consistent volumetric smoke without disrupting high-frequency rigid-body control loops. We demonstrate that our framework can be integrated with diverse robot simulators to generate physically accurate fire behavior, benchmark thermal hazards encountered by robotic platforms, and collect realistic multimodal perceptual data. Crucially, its real-time performance supports human-in-the-loop teleoperation, enabling the successful training of reactive, multimodal policies via Behavioral Cloning. By adding fire dynamics to robot simulations, FaaS provides a scalable pathway toward safer, more reliable deployment of robots in fire scenarios.

Predictive confidence serves as a foundational control signal in mission-critical systems, directly governing risk-aware logic such as escalation, abstention, and conservative fallback. While prior federated learning attacks predominantly target accuracy or implant backdoors, we identify confidence calibration as a distinct attack objective. We present the Temperature Scaling Attack (TSA), a training-time attack that degrades calibration while preserving accuracy. By injecting temperature scaling with learning rate-temperature coupling during local training, TSA shifts model confidence while keeping predictive accuracy and common optimization signals close to benign training. We provide a convergence analysis under non-IID settings, showing that the coupling controls the primary update scale while leaving a bounded temperature-induced residual, yielding the standard non-convex FL convergence structure with an additional residual term. Across three benchmarks, TSA substantially shifts calibration (e.g., 145% error increase on CIFAR-100) with <2% accuracy change, and remains effective under robust aggregation and post-hoc calibration defenses. Case studies further show up to a 7.2x increase in missed verifications in healthcare and severe confidence-gating failures in autonomous driving, even when accuracy is unchanged. Overall, our results establish calibration integrity as a critical attack surface in federated learning.

Fitted $Q$-iteration (FQI) is a standard regression-based method for optimal control in offline reinforcement learning, but its stability under function approximation often relies on Bellman completeness, which requires Bellman images of the fitted class to remain in the class. We study Kullback--Leibler (KL)-regularized, or soft, FQI relative to a fixed reference policy without this assumption. Our key insight is that soft control locally inherits the contraction of policy evaluation in a discounted-occupancy norm. At the soft-optimal fixed point, the linearization of the soft Bellman operator is exactly the Bellman operator for the soft-optimal policy, which contracts in its discounted-occupancy norm; projection in the same norm preserves this contraction. Standard soft FQI instead projects under the offline state-action distribution and need not preserve this property. Motivated by this observation, we propose \emph{occupancy-reweighted soft FQI}, which retains standard Bellman targets and least-squares updates while reweighting regressions by discounted-occupancy ratios induced by the current soft policy. Under $Q$-function realizability and local regularity, we establish local contraction and finite-sample convergence with estimated ratios, without Bellman completeness. We then use temperature annealing to convert the local result into global convergence from arbitrary initialization: sufficiently high temperature provides a globally contractive starting regime, while gradual cooling connects successive local contraction regions to any prescribed positive target temperature. Under an action-gap margin condition, switching at a fixed positive temperature to hard FQI with refreshed occupancy weights also yields population and finite-sample convergence to the unregularized optimum.

Reliable probability estimates by classifiers are essential in high-risk applications. In practice, however, predicted probabilities are often miscalibrated, and many existing post-hoc calibration methods typically lack guarantees that a specific notion of calibration is achieved after the correction procedure is applied. We introduce a set-based perspective on calibration through the notion of cumulative mass calibration and the corresponding error measures. We propose a new calibration procedure based on conformal prediction that forms cumulative probabilities with guaranteed marginal coverage. We introduce an adaptive temperature scaling algorithm, with the temperature tuned for each input to satisfy the conformal coverage constraint. As we show, this procedure can be efficiently implemented. Across image classification tasks, particularly in settings with many classes, our method improves newly introduced calibration error measures (CMCE and $α$-CMCE) and standard metrics (such as ECE, cw-ECE, MCE) over the existing baselines.