Time-Varying Systems

This paper proposes a structured approach to learning linear operators for control systems from data. We address both structural and learning-theoretic aspects of the problem. To derive structural assumptions, we propose using the well-established framework of (semi)groups for evolution equations, as operators in control systems are of the same type. Further, we propose analyzing learning algorithms through the lens of the inverse problems framework. This reveals how a learned model depends on the data via error decompositions, convergence guarantees, and optimal regularization -- enabling us to compare existing methods and derive provably advantageous algorithms. In order to obtain these results, we restrict our scope to bounded operators on Hilbert spaces. Although this may appear restrictive, existing approaches often make this assumption implicitly to obtain matrix-like representations. We demonstrate the power of using these frameworks by deriving a convergent estimator for time-varying systems.

Modern science and engineering increasingly rely on time-varying data, yet the mathematical tools used to model temporal phenomena are often developed within separate disciplines, obscuring common principles and limiting the transfer of ideas across fields. This chapter presents the theory of narratives, an abstract framework for time-varying objects of any mathematical kind that supports both theoretical investigations and applications. To illustrate this perspective, the chapter develops three vignettes, each illustrating a different research direction. The first addresses a general concern: What information loss can occur when switching between different representations of temporal data? The second concerns structural and algorithmic approaches: How can we systematically decompose time-varying data into simple pieces and obtain invariants describing its structural complexity? The third is an application to control theory: How can we model multi-agent systems with switching communication topologies? More important than any individual vignette, the central message of this invitation is that a suitable abstract perspective can organize and guide research across remarkably diverse mathematical and scientific domains.

The robust treatment of environmental and operational variability (EOV) is an open challenge in population-based structural health monitoring (PBSHM). The difficulty is compounded in the case that the EOV signals are unmeasured. A common approach in conventional SHM is to apply \emph{projection-based} methods that discard subspaces of healthy feature data, reasoning that the EOV signal dominates the variance of the measured features. However, a common pitfall of projection-based approaches is that when damage acts close to the same variance-dominant direction, damage sensitivity is removed along with the EOV. An alternative identifying assumption for the removal of particular unmeasured EOVs is slowness; the latent EOV process is characterised by its long temporal correlation. In this paper, the latent EOV is cast as a state-space Gaussian process, enabling tractable $\mathcal{O}(T)$ inference via a Kalman filter. A robust hierarchical Bayesian identification framework is developed that enables population-level identification of latent EOVs and EOV-free residual features, using a Laplace approximation. The approach is first validated on a single laboratory-scale benchmark structure from the literature, subject to thermal EOVs, demonstrating robust damage detection and EOV recovery. The method is then applied to a simulated nine-turbine offshore wind farm with staggered deployment and damage, where it delivers a substantial true-positive uplift over projection and cointegration-based baselines at matched false-positive rates.

Optimization theory is a widely used tool for intelligent decision-making. While classical optimization deals with fixed, time-invariant objective functions, many modern applications operate in dynamic environments where data arrive sequentially, and the learning objective evolves over time, often under decentralized data and communication constraints. Motivated by these trends, we study decentralized optimization from streaming data through a structured time-varying formulation in which the global objective is a temporally weighted average of losses observed across the network. We analyze multi-iteration decentralized first-order methods, including decentralized gradient descent. For strongly convex and smooth losses, we develop guarantees for the Euclidean-norm \emph{tracking error} through a contraction-mapping viewpoint. The resulting bounds decompose the tracking error into a fixed-point tracking component and a bias term induced by decentralization and data heterogeneity. We specialize our analysis to uniform and exponentially discounted weights, as well as their finite-memory \emph{windowed} counterparts. The bounds explicitly characterize the roles of the temporal weighting rule, per-step iteration budget, step size, and network connectivity. Uniform weighting yields a vanishing fixed-point tracking contribution of order $\mathcal O(1/t)$, whereas discounted and windowed strategies generally induce non-vanishing tracking floors governed by the discount factor and effective memory, respectively. In all cases, decentralization induces an additional non-zero bias floor under a constant step size. Numerical experiments illustrate the predicted trends.

Schrödinger bridge models restore a clean signal from a degraded observation by following the conditional bridges of a reference process, yet this reference is chosen heuristically, typically white noise with a hand-tuned schedule. We develop PRISM, a theory of bridge reference design. We characterize the time-varying Gaussian references that remain exactly tractable with per-mode schedules: precisely those whose instantaneous covariances commute. We then prove an invisibility principle: with the exact drift and unlimited solver steps, every admissible reference recovers the true posterior. The choice of reference therefore matters only under finite computational resources. For a fixed step budget, we derive the finite-step objective in closed form and prove that every optimal noise spectrum is proportional to Pk, the spectrum of information destroyed by the sensor, with a mode-independent constant x*(T) = (2 ln T)^-1/2 (1 + o(1)). The analysis shows that noise color and temporal scheduling are interchangeable, and regularization provably shifts the optimal reference toward white noise. Experiments in Gaussian settings confirm the predicted orderings and the closed-form loss floors. On FFHQ, the distortion-- perception trade-off and spectral localization transfer, but white noise outperforms the matched reference; a pre-registered study that changes the training regime refutes ridge whitening as the explanation. A 2x2 mechanism study then traces the inversion to the non-Gaussian per-mode statistics of real images. PRISM turns reference design from a hyperparameter sweep into a calculation in the Gaussian regime, and locates exactly where real images break it.

When can additional low-bit residual computation replace missing numerical precision for a fixed input-output map? We model a quantized residual system over a fixed horizon as a pure schedule selecting fields from a declared low-bit operation library, and use relaxed controls to characterize its infinite-depth limit. The distance from the target to the closed relaxed reachable set is the exact structural floor: no increase in depth can remove it for that library. Pure schedules approach the relaxed class at rate $O(D^{-1})$ under bounded-variation time dependence and $O(D^{-\vartheta}+D^{-1})$ under Holder dependence of exponent $\vartheta$. Execution arithmetic can reverse this conclusion: full-state write-back introduces a $Dρ_z$ penalty and can freeze residual updates, whereas increment error feedback replaces this growth by a bounded carry term and obeys an exact common-lattice conservation law. A fixed-teacher converse makes this rate sharp: for coherent depth-$L$ first-order high-precision comparators, accuracy matching requires $D=Θ(L)$. Learned codebooks add a metadata resource, while state-dependent routing introduces hybrid event conditions. Verified primal and dual bounds yield feasible, impossible, or unresolved decisions before training. Companion software implements the workflow, and Lean 4 machine-checks the exact discrete core. Depth replaces precision only relative to a declared library, horizon, execution semantics, and routing model.

Source apportionment from sparse urban air-quality sensors is an inverse problem limited by sensor placement, wind-driven transport, background variation, and noise. Known or proxy emission inventories make attribution meaningful by restricting the unknown source field to a finite set of candidate groups, but do not guarantee those groups are distinguishable from the observations. We represent time-varying source activity with a low-dimensional nonnegative temporal basis and formulate inventory-based apportionment as a wind-conditioned lagged inverse problem in which each source--basis coefficient produces a sensor-time fingerprint. After projecting out a separate low-dimensional background space, the relevant object is the projected lagged response matrix $\widetilde H_Φ$: exact identifiability at the chosen basis resolution requires its full column rank, while noise-robust attribution is controlled by its singular values, coefficient visibility, background absorption, pairwise coherence, and ray distance. We propose an identifiability-aware apportionment (IASA) framework that estimates nonnegative source--basis coefficients, reconstructs activity trajectories, and reports uncertainty and conservative grouping recommendations for indistinguishable sources. We instantiate it on a New Delhi platform built from government PM$_{2.5}$ and wind records, regulatory sensor locations, and four proxy source groups, and define controlled and observed evaluations of recovery, ambiguity, wind diversity, background stress, transport error, inventory robustness, and residual adequacy. IASA reports the attribution resolution defensible under the declared inventories, transport, background, lag, and noise rather than the most detailed possible vector.

Implicit neural representations (INRs) for time-varying volumetric data are typically trained using dense sampling over spatiotemporal coordinates, where each observation corresponds to a single point in space and time. This coordinate-wise formulation requires extensive sampling during optimization, leading to high computational cost and inefficient use of temporal structure. In this work, we revisit this design choice and show that dense spatiotemporal sampling is not necessary for learning time-varying fields. Instead, we represent the data as a collection of spatially indexed time series and train INRs using sequence-level supervision over each spatial location, rather than coordinate-wise scalar samples. This reformulation eliminates the need for dense spatiotemporal sampling and instead learns each spatial location from its full temporal evolution in a structured manner. We demonstrate that this representation is compatible with a range of existing INR architectures and consistently improves reconstruction quality, while significantly reducing training cost. Furthermore, we show that this formulation can be combined with mixture-of-experts architectures, and that our MoE instantiation further improves reconstruction quality compared to both the base reformulation and existing MoE-based INR methods, providing a stronger capacity allocation under heterogeneous temporal dynamics.

We consider the problem of sequentially approximating functions of each element in a slowly-varying sequence, i.e. one where the magnitude $α_i$ of the difference between the elements at positions $i$ and $i-1$ is small. Recent work on implicit trace estimation shows that when $α_t$ is small, reusing queries to past sequence elements can reduce the overall cost [Dharangutte & Musco, NeurIPS2021; Woodruff et al., NeurIPS2022]. We introduce a framework generalizing this to a variety of linear and nonlinear functions on diverse vector spaces, obtaining novel sequential estimation results for matrix powers, spectral densities, Monte Carlo integration, and a boundary value problem from partial differential equations~(PDEs). Furthermore, we develop a novel algorithm for use with this framework that locally scales the estimation budget with $α_t$, obtaining sharper path-length-style variation bounds of form $\mathcal O(\sum_{i=1}^mα_i)$ on the cost of estimating a sequence of length $m$. This improves upon the previous implicit trace estimation bound of $\mathcal O(m\cdot\max_iα_i)$ [Dharangutte & Musco, NeurIPS~2021], which is achieved by fixing the query budget using the worst-case $α_i$ and is thus inefficient for stable sequences with rare bursts. Lastly, while all past work assumes a known bound on $α_i$, we show in certain cases how the changes can be estimated on-the-fly with (nearly) no added cost. In summary, our framework makes the sequential approximation toolkit general-purpose and adaptive while improving upon state-of-the-art-guarantees for dynamic trace estimation.

Offline models for autonomous robots often fail under time-varying dynamics outside their training distribution. Koopman operator theory offers a linear representation of nonlinear dynamics via lifting, but its transition to real-time recursive estimation may suffer numerical vulnerabilities: covariance windup under low excitation when using exponential forgetting, and vanishing gain without forgetting. This paper introduces a Covariance-Regulated Recursive Koopman Learning (CR-RKL) framework with two complementary strategies--error dead-zone gating and constant-trace normalization--each independently capable of preventing covariance explosion and parameter freezing, with the latter additionally preserving the geometric structure of uncertainty. Validated on a non-holonomic differential-drive robot with wheel slip and Stribeck friction and on a 26-gram butterfly-inspired flapping-wing micro aerial vehicle, CR-RKL achieves numerically stable and accurate online modeling, and when embedded in model predictive control, it maintains reliable tracking performance under uncertain, time-varying dynamics.

The Differential Time-Varying Effect Model (DTVEM) of Jacobson et al. (2019) is a popular tool for finding the best time lag in intensive longitudinal data, but it assumes everyone shares the same lag structure. The original authors named fixing this as future work, and it clashes with the premise of modern clinical research, which is that people differ. We present DTVEM-RE, an extension that lets each person have their own lag coefficients, with two versions of the confirmatory step: a discrete-time hierarchical Bayesian VAR in Stan, which pools across people and gives calibrated uncertainty, and a continuous-time per-person Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model in ctsem, which handles unevenly spaced beeps directly. We report four results. A simulation shows the Bayesian version recovers the between-person spread tau_a with bias below 0.01 and coverage of 90 to 93 percent. On the Fisher et al. (2017) EMA dataset (N=40), person-specific lag-1 effects vary by an order of magnitude across three mood items, the Bayesian and GAMM estimates agree closely (r=0.87 to 0.92), and DTVEM-RE gives the best one-step-ahead prediction among four discrete-time methods. A multi-lag version shows all nine tau_k values have credible intervals excluding zero, and the lag where people differ most changes across items, something lag-1-only methods like mlVAR cannot detect. Finally, the two versions agree almost exactly on person-specific lag-1 estimates (r >= 0.995), differing only as shrinkage predicts. DTVEM-RE is, to our knowledge, the first person-specific implementation of DTVEM-style lag detection, and it contains standard DTVEM as a special case.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) combine machine learning with physical laws to solve differential equations. While existing results provide rigorous \emph{a posteriori} upper bounds for PINN prediction errors, complete certification also requires complementary lower information in order to obtain computable two-sided error enclosures. In this paper, we derive computable \emph{a posteriori} lower bounds for PINN errors in ordinary differential equations on suitable certified state-space domains under a localized strong monotonicity condition. We combine these estimates with complementary localized upper bounds under a one-sided Lipschitz condition, which is weaker than the global Lipschitz assumption used in previous work and can yield sharper upper error bands. The resulting bounds depend only on the neural-network approximation, the ODE residual, and local monotonicity and growth constants, and therefore do not require access to the exact solution. For linear time-invariant and time-varying systems, we further derive explicit formulas in terms of the minimal and maximal eigenvalues of the symmetric part of the system matrix. We also discuss the distinction between soft and hard enforcement of initial conditions in PINNs and explain why exact enforcement can make the scalar lower certificate uninformative. To recover nontrivial lower information in the linear setting, we use a signed-residual finite-probe certificate based on coordinate unit vectors. We also formulate a certificate-informed training strategy in which the propagated upper certificate is used as an auxiliary regularizer, while lower certificates remain post-training diagnostics. Altogether, the proposed framework provides rigorous and practically computable error certificates for PINN approximations of ODEs, while making explicit the domains and model classes for which the assumptions can be verified.

In this paper, we study Mahalanobis-guided latent out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for test-time RL controller switching in nonlinear time-varying systems. RL controllers can quickly control high-dimensional systems within the training distribution, but their performance can degrade when time-varying dynamics produce unseen observations. We consider a combined ES--DRL controller, where RL provides fast in-distribution actions and bounded extremum seeking (ES) provides robust model-independent control under OOD operation. The key challenge is deciding when to switch. We train a variational autoencoder (VAE) on in-distribution beam-profile observations and use Mahalanobis distance in the VAE latent space to detect OOD beam profiles at test time. This OOD decision sets a binary switch that selects either the RL controller or the ES controller. We evaluate the approach in safety-critical particle accelerator control. In this setting, spatial magnet motion creates OOD beam profiles that were not seen during RL training. Visualization of the VAE latent space shows that the proposed method identifies this OOD scenario and provides an interpretable signal for switching between RL and ES in the combined controller.

Matrix-valued time series arise in a wide range of applications, such as spatio-temporal data from medical imaging and geophysics. Existing methods are mainly designed for static settings and lack adaptability to streaming and time-varying environments. Adaptive filtering techniques have also been largely limited to data with scalar or vector values, leaving adaptive forecasting for matrix-valued time series inadequately understood. To bridge these gaps, we develop an adaptive tensor regression framework that includes Matrix-on-Matrix (MoM) and Tensor-on-Matrix (ToM) formulations for streaming matrix-valued prediction. The two formulations differ in whether to directly model matrix-valued outputs or to exploit temporal structure via higher-order tensor representations. For the proposed tensor regression framework, we develop stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms for online learning. We show that stacking multiple responses across time into higher-order tensors improves performance; in particular, the ToM achieves lower steady-state error and stronger denoising capability than MoM, motivating our focus on the ToM model. We further characterize the tracking behavior of SGD under time-varying dynamics. From a statistical perspective, we establish fixed-time recovery guarantees for ToM under general low-dimensional structures, including sparsity, low-rankness, and their joint sparselow-rank models.

Data-driven Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) uses time-varying condition-monitoring data to diagnose system states and estimate remaining useful life in engineered assets. These tasks are central to maintenance planning, but industrial PHM data are often fragmented, partially observed, and poorly labeled, which hinders supervised learning. Foundation models offer a route toward reusable predictive systems, yet most time-series foundation models are designed for forecasting and assume long, coherent, regularly sampled sequences. To address this gap, we propose a framework for applying Tabular Foundation Models to industrial time series using in-context learning, and we evaluate them on a variety of PHM tasks. By converting raw unit-level signals into tabular rows, we show that these models perform well across multiple tasks - including prognostics, and diagnostics - and are highly data efficient. We compare them directly with sequence models, transformer baselines, and gradient-boosted trees under a common evaluation protocol. The results indicate that tabular foundation models achieve the best average ranks across prognostic and diagnostic tasks. Our findings further show that PFN-based models are competitive in low-data regimes, that temporal context can be preserved in the tabular representation, and that performance depends on representative context construction under subsampling. These results demonstrate that tabular foundation models provide a practical and general interface for heterogeneous PHM problems.

Reduced-order models (ROMs) can accelerate high-dimensional dynamical simulations, but their accuracy often deteriorates when online dynamics leave the regime represented by offline training data. We develop a projection-based adaptive ROM framework based on incremental singular value decomposition (iSVD), in which occasional full-order operator evaluations provide correction snapshots for online basis updates. The intrusive ROMs considered here are fully parameterized by the basis, so each update naturally propagates to reduced operators and hyper-reduction machinery. Through its evolving singular structure, iSVD retains an encoded history of the observed dynamics and is history-aware in this sense. We study the method on three nonlinear problems of increasing complexity: the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation, the Sod shock tube, and a stiff one-dimensional ten-species rotating detonation engine (RDE). The Burgers problem is used to analyze the method and compare iSVD with alternative basis adaptation rules, showing that history-aware updates outperform instantaneous updates and that iSVD gives the strongest overall performance. The Sod and RDE cases demonstrate that these advantages persist in more challenging compressible-flow settings. For the RDE problem, the iSVD adaptive ROM improves upon the current state-of-the-art Direct adaptive ROM baseline in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. A cost analysis shows that the dominant online cost comes from interacting with the full-order model to obtain correction snapshots, while the iSVD update itself is negligible. These results identify iSVD as an effective mechanism for online learning of reduced subspaces and suggest a path toward ROMs that remain predictive over horizons several orders of magnitude longer than their initial training window.

We study how an e-commerce firm should make real-time fulfillment decisions in a two-layer distribution network when multi-item customer orders arrive sequentially and future demand is unknown. The central managerial tension is whether to use scarce front distribution center (FDC) inventory to save current fulfillment cost or preserve that inventory for future orders that may be more valuable to serve locally. We formulate an adversarial online model with multiple FDCs, one regional distribution center (RDC), multi-unit multi-item orders, and item-specific and time-varying variable costs. Our theoretical objective is to characterize when simple, interpretable, and implementable fulfillment rules can perform nearly as well as an optimal clairvoyant planner. We develop a family of Gated Priority-based Greedy policies, derive competitive-ratio guarantees under both time-varying and time-invariant cost structures, and establish matching or near-matching lower bounds for any online algorithm. Numerical experiments show that the proposed policies perform strongly relative to generalized myopic and forecast-based benchmarks. The analysis yields managerial guidance on when local inventory should be protected, when splitting orders is worth the fixed-cost burden, and how the relative magnitudes of fixed and variable costs determine the value of more sophisticated optimization.

Recent advances in learning-based model predictive control (MPC) have leveraged neural networks for online model learning, achieving strong performance when nonstationary system dynamics deviate from nominal models. However, existing approaches primarily address specific or relatively structured forms of dynamical variation, leaving more general, unknown, and unpredictable time-varying dynamics insufficiently handled. To tackle this challenge, we propose T2S-MPC, a framework that adaptively learns a residual dynamics model online and integrates it with the nominal model within the MPC framework to enable fast-evolving online planning. To make the model time-aware, we explicitly encode temporal information through a structured time embedding and employ a two-timescale update scheme, allowing the controller to capture nonstationary dynamics while balancing rapid adaptation with stable learning. We evaluate the proposed method on a 2D quadrotor across stabilization and trajectory tracking tasks under diverse time-varying disturbances, including linear drifting and periodic perturbations. Experimental results show that T2S-MPC consistently outperforms classical MPC, neural MPC, and ablated variants in control performance, while also demonstrating strong robustness across a wide range of disturbance conditions without additional tuning. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/Zeyuu0920/T2S_MPC

State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference, which for SSMs is in general a very challenging problem due to the intractability of the likelihood. Recently, neural estimation methods, such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL), have shown promising results in Bayesian inference problems. In this paper, we show that SNL, when applied to the SSM setting, suffers important limitations, such as requiring a large amount of simulated samples to achieve a moderate performance, scaling poorly with sequence length, while not being amortized. We then introduce a novel inference algorithm called truncated-SNL (T-SNL), which addresses the limitations of SNL. Our algorithm is more accurate, more stable and robust during training, more scalable to longer temporal sequences, and can be amortized when new observations become available. Our experiments show that T-SNL is sample-efficient, robust, and flexible algorithm which outperforms other approaches.

We study model-free Q-learning in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with stationary dynamics across episodes. We identify a central issue in nascent model-free posterior-sampling works: the reliance on delayed learning in order to prove theoretical guarantees. In particular, we identify three opportunities for faster learning - (i) value-function update order, (ii) update frequencies, and (iii) value-function initialization. Using Wang et al.'s RandomizedQ as a basis, we illustrate these changes and their individual (as well as cumulative) impact in multiple empirical studies. We find that our combined modifications, termed ReversedQ, improve scaled mean cumulative reward compared to RandomizedQ, from 9.53% to 78.78% in the Bidirectional Diabolical Combination Lock (BDCL), and from 21.76% to 61.81% in a chain MDP.

The identification and modeling of time-varying systems is a fundamental challenge in signal processing and system identification. To address this challenge, we propose a class of time-varying state-space model (SSM) based neural networks in which the neurons' states are governed by time-varying dynamics. The proposed model provides the learnable time-varying dynamics through a dictionary of basis functions, where each basis function evolves differently over time. We evaluate the proposed approach on both synthetic data from switching systems and a speech denoising task where real audio is corrupted with switching dynamics noise. The results show that the proposed time-varying model consistently outperforms its time-invariant counterparts while maintaining comparable computational complexity. Our investigations also reveal which aspects of the time-varying dynamics of the data most need to be captured by the proposed time-invariant models, how the additional freedom provided by time-varying basis functions should be allocated across model components, and to what extent larger models can compensate for time-invariant limitations.

Classical optimization theory largely focuses on fixed objective functions, whereas many modern learning systems operate in dynamic environments where data arrive sequentially and decisions must be updated continuously. In this work, we study optimization with streaming data over a distributed network of agents. We adopt a structured, weight-based formulation that explicitly captures the streaming-data origin of the time-varying objective: at each time step, every agent receives a new sample, and the network seeks to track the minimizer of a temporally weighted objective formed from all samples observed across the network so far. We focus on decentralized gradient descent (DGD) with a limited communication/computation budget, where at each time step, only a limited number of DGD iterations can be performed before the objective changes again. For strongly convex and smooth losses, we analyze the tracking error with respect to the time-varying minimizer through a fixed-point theory lens. Our analysis reveals that the tracking error decomposes into a fixed-point tracking term and a bias term induced by data heterogeneity across agents. We specialize the analysis to two natural weighting strategies: uniform weights, which treat all samples equally, and exponentially discounted weights, which geometrically decay the influence of older data. Under uniform weighting, DGD tracks the fixed-point at a rate $\mathcal{O}(1/t)$, whereas discounted weighting yields a non-vanishing fixed-point tracking floor controlled by the discount factor. In both cases, decentralization induces an additional non-zero bias floor under a constant step size. We validate our theoretical findings through numerical simulations.

We study long-horizon deployment of a frozen predictor under dynamic covariate shift. A time-domain Poincare inequality first reduces temporal risk volatility to derivative energy. A Jacobian-velocity theorem then supplies the corresponding pathwise control. Given explicit regularity and domination assumptions, the theorem identifies directional tangent energy along the deployment path as the governing quantity. Under low-rank drift, that quantity reduces to directional Jacobian energy in the drift subspace, motivating drift-aligned tangent regularization (DTR) and a matched monitoring proxy. Rather than smoothing the network isotropically, DTR penalizes sensitivity only along estimated drift directions. We validate the theorem-to-method pipeline in four experiments: a synthetic benchmark for the time-domain inequality, a controlled synthetic comparison against isotropic Jacobian regularization, and two frozen-deployment studies on the UCI Air Quality and Tetouan power-consumption datasets. DTR reduces risk volatility and directional gain in the controlled low-rank regime and beats isotropic smoothing there. It also gives validation-selected deployment gains on both real datasets, with the Air Quality subspace estimated from target-orthogonal sensor motion. Moderate drift-subspace misspecification is tolerable while orthogonal misspecification largely removes the benefit.

Koopman-based neural MPC models generate time-varying dynamics from historical data, but preserve convexity by enforcing that the system operator is independent of the current control input. This conditional independence constraint limits adaptation to changing dynamics within a single MPC horizon, particularly under time-varying conditions and under stale-plan execution. We propose Bilinear Mamba-Koopman Neural MPC, a minimal extension that introduces control-dependent coupling in the latent dynamics, allowing the effective operator to adapt to the current input. The resulting model is a strict generalization of the standard linear, conditional-independence formulation, adds less than 1% parameters through a low-rank structure, and admits exact model Jacobians that enable efficient Sequential Convex Programming (SCP) with monotone-descent and KKT convergence results under standard trust-region assumptions. Across CartPole and RSCP benchmarks in time-invariant and time-varying regimes, the proposed model matches or improves forecasting accuracy on every cell when training noise is averaged out, with strict gains where control-state coupling is structurally present. Its main closed-loop gains appear in the RSCP TV task, where iterative SCP improves adaptation within the horizon and substantially stabilizes training; in CartPole TV, the gains are modest but consistent. In delayed re-planning experiments on the time-varying variants, the bilinear model degrades more gracefully under stale-plan execution, maintaining a consistent advantage on CartPole TV and a substantially larger robustness margin on RSCP TV. These results show that control-dependent latent dynamics provide a simple and effective mechanism for robust MPC under varying conditions.

This paper investigates the autonomous synchronization problem for discrete-time heterogeneous multiagent systems. The synchronization problem is transformed into the asymptotic decoupling problem of stable modes in a class of discrete-time linear time-varying systems, for which we provide a sufficient condition. Leveraging this condition, synchronization conditions are established. The synchronization conditions are based on the average of the agents' initial dynamic matrices, without requiring the differences among these matrices to be small. This approach reduces the conservativeness of existing conditions and achieves a unification of both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Numerical simulation results are provided to support the theoretical findings.

Time-varying dependence is often modeled with dynamic correlations or Gaussian graphical models, but multivariate systems can change through tail behavior, asymmetry, or conditional structure even when correlations are nearly stable. We introduce Dynamic Vine Copulas (DVC), a temporal vine-copula framework for estimating and diagnosing sequence-wide non-Gaussian dependence. DVC fixes a chosen vine factorization for comparability; the framework applies to C-, D-, and R-vines, and our experiments use fixed-root-order C-vines. Pair-copula states evolve through smooth parameter trajectories or temporally regularized family-switching paths. The main diagnostic is a held-out comparison between a full vine and its matched 1-truncated version, which separates flexible first-tree pairwise dependence from evidence contributed by higher-tree conditional terms. At the population level, under a correct fixed vine and the simplifying assumption, this contrast equals the higher-tree component of a vine total-correlation decomposition; in finite samples, it is a predictive diagnostic. In controlled benchmarks, DVC detects Student-t degrees-of-freedom changes, Clayton-to-Gumbel switches, and recurrent conditional-interaction episodes missed or conflated by Gaussian dynamic baselines. The higher-tree score remains near zero in pairwise-only regimes and rises during conditional-interaction regimes. On Allen Visual Behavior Neuropixels data, DVC identifies a reproducible time-indexed higher-tree signal that is positive across held-out splits and vanishes under a decorrelated null, indicating simultaneous cross-area dependence. DVC therefore provides a flexible temporal copula model and an interpretable test of whether temporal dependence changes are pairwise or conditional.

Scientists face significant visualization challenges as time-varying datasets grow in speed and volume, often requiring specialized infrastructure and expertise to handle massive datasets. Petascale climate models generated in NASA laboratories require a dedicated group of graphics and media experts and access to high-performance computing resources. Scientists may need to share scientific results with the community iteratively and quickly. However, the time-consuming trial-and-error process incurs significant data transfer overhead and far exceeds the time and resources allocated for typical post-analysis visualization tasks, disrupting the production workflow. Our paper introduces a user-friendly framework for creating 3D animations of petascale, time-varying data on a commodity workstation. Our contributions: (i) Generalized Animation Descriptor (GAD) with a keyframe-based adaptable abstraction for animation, (ii) efficient data access from cloud-hosted repositories to reduce data management overhead, (iii) tailored rendering system, and (iv) an LLM-assisted conversational interface as a scripting module to allow domain scientists with no visualization expertise to create animations of their region of interest. We demonstrate the framework's effectiveness with two case studies: first, by generating animations in which sampling criteria are specified based on prior knowledge, and second, by generating AI-assisted animations in which sampling parameters are derived from natural-language user prompts. In all cases, we use large-scale NASA climate-oceanographic datasets that exceed 1PB in size yet achieve a fast turnaround time of 1 minute to 2 hours. Users can generate a rough draft of the animation within minutes, then seamlessly incorporate as much high-resolution data as needed for the final version.

Sequential optimization of black-box functions from noisy evaluations has been widely studied, with Gaussian Process bandit algorithms such as GP-UCB guaranteeing no-regret in stationary settings. However, for time-varying objectives, no-regret is unattainable under pure bandit feedback unless strong and often unrealistic assumptions are imposed. We propose a novel method for optimizing time-varying rewards in the frequentist setting, where the objective has bounded RKHS norm almost surely. Time variations are captured through uncertainty injection, enabling heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression that adapts past observations to the current time step. As no-regret is unattainable in general in the strict bandit setting, we relax the latter allowing additional queries on previously observed points. Building on sparse inference and the effect of uncertainty injection on regret, we propose W-SparQ-GP-UCB, an online algorithm that achieves no-regret with a vanishing number of additional queries per iteration. To assess the theoretical limits of this approach, we establish a lower bound on the number of additional queries required for no-regret, proving the efficiency of our method. Finally, we provide a comprehensive analysis linking the temporal regime of the function to achievable regret rates, together with upper and lower bounds on the number of additional queries needed in each regime.

Magnitude, obtained as a special case of Euler characteristic of enriched category, represents a sense of the size of metric spaces and is related to classical notions such as cardinality, dimension, and volume. While the studies have explained the meaning of magnitude from various perspectives, continuity also gives a valuable view of magnitude. Based on established results about continuity of magnitude and maximum diversity, this article focuses on continuity of weighting, a distribution whose totality is magnitude, and its variation corresponding to maximum diversity. Meanwhile, recent studies also illuminated the connection between magnitude and data analysis by applying magnitude theory to point clouds representing the data or the set of model parameters. This article will also provide an application for time series analysis by introducing a new kind of invariants of periodic time series, where the invariance follows directly from the continuity results. As a use-case, a simple machine learning experiment is conducted with real-world data, in which the suggested invariants improved the performance.