Trajectory Prediction

Reported gains in vessel-trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data are credited to new architectures, but the evaluation protocol is rarely measured as a source of error reduction. We build a leakage-aware protocol with vessel-, time- and region-disjoint splits and apply it to two corpora with different traffic: 31 days of Danish national AIS traffic and 30 days of US Gulf coast traffic off Houston and Galveston. On both, we audit TrAISformer, GATransformer, and controlled AISFormer-inspired reconstructions. Three protocol effects appear in both corpora. First, TrAISformer's best-of-16 oracle decoder lowers error by a factor of 2.1-3.2 relative to greedy decoding. Second, a split that shares vessels lowers its greedy error by 23-25% at one hour, against 2% or less for a compact 0.43 M-parameter encoder. Third, a region-disjoint split raises TrAISformer's one-hour error from 2.2 to 24.6 km on the US corpus, because 99.9% of the test contexts fall in longitude bins never seen in training; the encoder built on local offsets is unaffected by this. Architectural mechanisms matter less: GATransformer's graph attention gives no measurable benefit on either corpus, while its waterway feature is worth 12-22%. The effect of a time-disjoint split is not stable across corpora (13% versus 2%). We release the splits and code.

LiDAR-based unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) exploration builds maps by continually selecting where to observe next. However, decisions based on the measured map provide limited foresight into spatial continuations behind occlusions, leaving potentially informative directions unrecognized. We present WOLF, a world-model-guided framework that predicts future observations to enhance autonomous exploration. In the training stage, a recurrent world model learns observation dynamics from exploration trajectories, with recurrent memory retaining the spatial context needed to interpret partial observations across successive views. Building on this context, the model combines observation history with candidate motions during exploration to predict local occupancy and visibility. To guide further sensing, a predictive frontier generation mechanism then aligns and fuses these predictions using confidence, branch agreement, and observation quality to identify promising regions. The resulting predictive frontiers join measured ones to guide geometric viewpoint selection and trajectory generation, while new scans update subsequent predictions. In simulations, our method reduces mean terminal time by 10.9% relative to EPIC in Garage at comparable coverage and increases mean coverage from 42.12% to 98.35% in Tunnel. Real-world experiments further demonstrate onboard deployment of the learned model for online inference during physical flight.

End-to-end autonomous driving maps current observations directly to future trajectories, yet those trajectories must remain valid as the scene evolves. Future state modeling aims to address this temporal mismatch, but general representations often contain information unrelated to ego planning and affect trajectory generation only through auxiliary supervision, static conditioning, or proposal evaluation. We propose FeasibleFlow, a one-step end-to-end generative framework that jointly transports a configuration-space feasibility field and multimodal ego trajectories. Our Asymmetric Joint MeanFlow uses the pathwise Jacobian-vector product in the MeanFlow identity to incorporate field evolution into trajectory transport. Because safety feedback is sparser than progress feedback, we further introduce the Anchor-relative ranker (ARR) and Pareto-ReinFlow to balance safety and progress in candidate selection and generation, respectively. Experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark demonstrate the strong performance of FeasibleFlow and validate both the joint transport of feasibility and trajectories and the proposed safety-first mechanisms.

Predicting the future trajectories of surrounding vehicles in autonomous driving is important for collision risk assessment and safe ego-vehicle path planning. Conventional neural network-based trajectory predictors typically achieve strong prediction performance by exploiting agent history, dynamic scene graphs, and semantic maps. However, in specific motion regimes such as acceleration, deceleration, and turning, these predictors may fail to reflect physically feasible trajectories. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework that fuses the output of Trajectron++, a neural network-based trajectory predictor, with extended Kalman filter (EKF)-based multiple trajectory candidates at a late stage. On the nuScenes dataset, the proposed method reduces the average displacement error and final displacement error of the Trajectron++ robot baseline by 13.7% and 14.6%, respectively, without modifying the baseline architecture. These results indicate that EKF-based trajectory candidates can effectively complement neural trajectory prediction through learned fusion.

State-of-the-art vision-language-action models (VLA) for autonomous driving face critical limitations: excessive parameter counts, inefficient high-resolution image processing, and lack of temporal memory. We introduce Fast and EffectIVE VLA (FIVE-VLA) to address these through two key contributions. First, we employ an efficient vision encoder that processes high-resolution ($448 \times 896$) images while generating only 98 tokens, over $5\times$ fewer than existing approaches, and bypass text generation entirely for single-pass trajectory prediction. Second, we propose Recurrent Action Memory (RAM), a lightweight module that conditions action prediction on previous action tokens, providing temporal context critical for manoeuvres such as overtaking and emergency braking. With only 641M parameters, FIVE-VLA completes $\sim$10% more routes without traffic rule infractions than the previous state-of-the-art VLA on the challenging Bench2Drive closed-loop driving benchmark. Non-reactive open-loop simulation on the large-scale real-world NVIDIA Physical AI AV dataset shows 10.2% and 7.7% lower collision-violation rates than SimLingo in single- and four-view settings, respectively. Additionally, FIVE-VLA runs at $\sim$30 fps on an A100 and $\sim$4 fps on a T4 GPU (proxy to an edge device), representing an 8-30$\times$ speedup over previous methods.

Safe motion planning in automated driving requires anticipating evolving traffic risks and deciding when to revise the current planned trajectory. We introduce RiskWorld, a risk-aware world modeling framework for shared occupancy forecasting and selective trajectory replacement. Spatial risk fields and temporal actor context are fused with visual bird's-eye-view features. Flow-guided evolution transports occupancy and scene features, while signed residuals correct occupancy after transport. One forecast is generated per planning step and reused across candidates. Each candidate is compared with a current-state persistence reference, yielding a nonnegative collision-score correction. The trajectory selected by current-world evaluation serves as the planning anchor and is replaced only when additional predicted risk triggers intervention and an alternative satisfies component-wise constraints on predicted risk and trajectory error. Candidate geometries remain unchanged. We evaluate RiskWorld for open-loop planning on nuScenes using camera features, annotation-derived current and historical actor states, and dataset-provided map context. RiskWorld achieves the lowest collision rate at a long evaluation horizon of 3 s, and the second-best average L2 error among various state-of-the-art baselines, while running at 11.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090 with 90.81 M parameters. Within-setting ablations show that RiskWorld achieves lower collision rates than the current-state rescoring baseline, while forecast reuse enables additional candidates to be evaluated at low marginal computational cost.

Vehicular federated learning (VFL) enables privacy-preserving collaborative model training for intelligent transportation systems, where communication resource allocation and gradient sparsification techniques have been explored to reduce communication overhead. However, vehicle mobility leads to rapidly varying channel conditions and transmission capacity, rendering predetermined resource allocation and sparsification decisions ineffective. In this paper, we propose FedPGT, a progressive gradient transmission scheme for VFL over time-varying channels, where vehicles progressively transmit high-magnitude gradient entries in response to instantaneous channel conditions. We establish a convergence bound that characterizes the impact of transmitted gradient entries and reveals diminishing-return behavior governed by a power-law decay. Motivated by this result, we formulate a stochastic optimization problem for online decision-making, where the main challenge lies in a cumulatively coupled, non-separable objective. To handle this challenge, we introduce per-slot surrogate transmission variables to decouple the long-term dependence across time slots and convert the original objective into an additive per-slot optimization problem, enabling a Lyapunov drift-plus-penalty approach for online scheduling. We further develop a low-complexity resource allocation algorithm for efficient online implementation. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed scheme achieves a 3.65% accuracy improvement on the CIFAR-10 image classification task and a 12.66% reduction in average displacement error on the Argoverse trajectory prediction task compared with state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating its applicability to diverse learning tasks under highly dynamic vehicular environments.

Autonomous racing confronts significant challenges in safely overtaking Opponent Vehicles (OVs) that exhibit uncertain trajectories, stemming from unknown driving policies. To address these challenges, this study proposes heterogeneous kernel metrics for Deep Kernel Learning (DKL), designed to robustly capture the diverse driving policies of OVs, and carry out precise trajectory predictions along with the associated uncertainties. A key virtue of the proposed kernel metrics lies in their ability to align similar driving policies and disjoin dissimilar ones in an unsupervised manner, given the observed interactions between the Ego Vehicle (EV) and OVs. The efficacy of the proposed method is substantiated through experimental studies on a 1/10th scale racecar platform, demonstrating improved prediction accuracy and thereby safely overtaking against OVs. Furthermore, our method is computationally efficient for onboard computing units, affirming its viability in fast-paced racing environments. The video and source code can be found at https://github.com/HMCL-UNIST/OpponentPredictionWithKMDKL.git.

Traversability prediction is a critical component of autonomous navigation in unstructured environments, where complex and uncertain robot-terrain interactions pose significant challenges such as traction loss and dynamic instability. Despite recent progress in learning-based traversability prediction, these methods often fail to adapt to novel terrains. Even when adaptation is achieved, retaining experience from previously trained environments remains a challenge, a problem known as catastrophic forgetting. To address this challenge, we propose a continual learning framework for traversability prediction that incrementally adapts to new terrains using a generative experience recall model. A key virtue of the proposed framework is two folds: i) retain prior experience without storing past data; and ii) incorporate the uncertainty of the generated samples from the recall model, enabling uncertainty-aware adaptation. Real-world experiments with a skid-steering robot validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, demonstrating its ability to adapt across a series of diverse environments while mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

Safe local planning requires forecasting surrounding-agent motion and evaluating candidate-specific risks, since identical agent motion can pose different risks to different ego trajectories. We present CorrRisk-WM, a planning-oriented partial world model coupling environment evolution with supervised intrusion and near-miss prediction over bounded candidate-trajectory corridors. A latent environment model recursively predicts agent states and updates agent-agent and agent-map interactions. Each candidate queries the evolving environment through footprint- aware geometry and learned agent-corridor representations. A lightweight recurrent risk module uses temporal context to estimate per-slice hazards; survival aggregation yields first-entry and horizon-level event probabilities. On 29,176 scenarios from 100 Waymo validation shards, CorrRisk-WM achieves intrusion average precision (AP) of 0.8567 and 1-m near-miss first-entry AP of 0.8671. In baseline comparisons, it attains the highest near-miss AP at all three distance thresholds and the lowest observed open-loop collision rate (4.88%), with route progress of 15.35 m. Across three seeds, removing dynamic environment modeling or candidate-conditioned geometric interaction reduces mean intrusion AP from 0.8590 to 0.7624 and 0.7252, respectively. These results support coupling environment evolution with candidate-conditioned geometric reasoning for risk prediction and safety-oriented candidate selection.

Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matching architecture trained exclusively on historical aircraft trajectories, with no route labels or chart supervision. Trained on 1.15 million Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectory windows collected over the San Francisco Bay Area, the model generates aircraft trajectory distributions that closely match historical traffic, reproducing known airspace structure around San Francisco Airport such as the shape of SFO's published NIITE FOUR departure procedure. Our model is trained directly on the native, irregular ADS-B sampling interval. Trajectory prediction is cast as sequence inpainting using a block-causal Transformer that denoises future state tokens conditioned on the observed history using Conditional Flow Matching or Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. We compare our architecture against constant-velocity, deterministic-Long Short Term Memory, and Conditional Variational Autoencoders baselines. At matched parameter count, CFM outperforms DDPM by 11-26% in minADE@20, and both generative objectives surpass the CVAE baseline by 31-41%. We further show that the error degrades gracefully with prediction horizon, and the architecture remains effective when retrained on temporally decimated feeds. Lastly, we sample $K$ independent completions, yielding spatial probabilistic occupancy estimates that can serve as input to downstream conflict-risk estimation.

Vision-language models (VLMs) can generate routes directly from aerial imagery for off-road navigation, but their predictions provide no indication of reliability. We present UDAV, an Uncertainty-Driven Adaptive VLM Waypoint Planner for UAV-guided UGV navigation. UDAV draws multiple stochastic trajectory predictions, selects their medoid as a self-consistent nominal route, and estimates predictive uncertainty from their spatial dispersion. When the maximum uncertainty across interior waypoints exceeds a threshold, UDAV invokes a reconsideration stage; otherwise, it returns the medoid directly. We evaluate UDAV on 400 held-out trajectory queries from two UAV flights. Stochastic medoid selection reduces the mean average displacement error (ADE) from 147.4 pixels for a deterministic prediction to 115.9 pixels. The complete planner achieves a mean ADE of 110.4 pixels, a 25.1% reduction relative to deterministic planning, while producing valid trajectories for all queries. UDAV also yields the lowest 90th- and 95th-percentile errors among all evaluated configurations, including a higher-budget K=10 consensus baseline. Relative to the K=5 medoid, UDAV reduces these errors from 225.3 and 326.0 pixels to 199.0 and 290.8 pixels, respectively. These results demonstrate that stochastic VLM predictions provide both a stronger nominal route and an actionable uncertainty signal for selectively mitigating large planning errors.

Understanding and predicting wildlife movement is critical for ecology and conservation. While trajectory forecasting has advanced for human and vehicle movement, wildlife trajectories present distinct challenges: they are unconstrained in space, highly stochastic, and influenced by environmental conditions. We introduce MoveBench, the first large-scale benchmark for probabilistic wildlife movement forecasting, containing 2.6M GPS locations from 800+ individuals across 110 species in 127 countries, paired with 1.6B environmental raster tiles capturing 160 covariates known or hypothesized to influence movement. We propose a probabilistic evaluation protocol for movement trajectory forecasts, addressing limitations of point-prediction metrics for inherently stochastic phenomena. Through comprehensive empirical evaluation of four method families across multiple temporal and spatial scales, we reveal that: (1) existing predictive methods generalize better to future timepoints than to unseen individuals, (2) deep learning approaches do not consistently outperform simpler baselines, and (3) environmental covariate selection significantly impacts performance. MoveBench enables standardized evaluation of movement forecasting methods and provides a foundation for methodological advances on this ecologically important task.

Strategic flight plan validation in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) environments requires robust methods for predicting aircraft state uncertainty and detecting potential conflicts with dynamic airspace hazards. This paper presents a novel framework for uncertainty-conditioned trajectory prediction combined with polyhedra hazard representation for pre-flight conflict detection. We introduce a closed-form uncertainty estimation method that couples non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curve fitting for kinematic trajectory generation with a Kalman Filter for state covariance propagation. Drawing from the Light Propagation Algorithm (LPA) paradigm, we employ a sigmoid-blended measurement noise model that captures the uncertainty reduction behavior of flight management systems approaching the required time of arrival (RTA) for waypoints. The resulting temporal uncertainty bounds are derived through a velocity-to-time variance transformation, enabling probabilistic assessment of arrival time deviations along the flight path. For hazard representation, we develop an operator-conditioned classification scheme that transforms gridded environmental data, specifically weather phenomena, into three-dimensional polyhedra volumes with intensity-based stratification. These hazard polyhedra incorporate aircraft-specific safety buffers computed from vehicle performance characteristics. Conflict detection is performed through mesh intersection algorithms operating on the spatial uncertainty tube surrounding the mean trajectory against the hazard polyhedra and temporal overlap. The framework enables the continuous strategic validation of flight plans throughout the pre-flight planning time horizon as environmental conditions evolve.

To address the challenges of behavioral multimodality, limited semantic utilization, and long-term error accumulation in vessel trajectory prediction, this paper proposes M3-Former, a multimodal trajectory prediction framework enhanced by large language models (LLMs). The proposed framework incorporates vessel static attributes and navigational intent as semantic priors for long-term trajectory modeling. Specifically, a unified multimodal representation space is constructed, in which static semantic information is encoded by a pre-trained LLM and aligned with dynamic trajectory features through self-attention. To jointly capture global route planning and local motion variations, a dual-granularity Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture is introduced, where sequence-level experts model global navigation trends and token-level experts refine fine-grained maneuvering behaviors. In addition, a Steering-Weighted Cross-Entropy loss is designed to alleviate the long-tail distribution of sparse turning samples and improve prediction accuracy in critical maneuvering scenarios. Experiments on a real-world Danish AIS dataset demonstrate that M\textsuperscript{3}-Former consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across prediction horizons from 1 to 4 hours. In the 4-hour prediction task, the proposed method reduces Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE) by 4.4% and 5.1%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline. Qualitative and ablation analyses further verify that semantic fusion effectively reduces long-term trajectory drift, while the dual-granularity MoE improves robustness in complex waterways and route-branching scenarios. The proposed framework establishes a semantic-guided hierarchical prediction paradigm, in which high-level navigational intent and local motion dynamics are jointly modeled for robust long-term vessel trajectory forecasting.

Unified models for object detection and trajectory forecasting aim to merge perception and prediction for autonomous driving, refining actor trajectories directly over shared bird's-eye-view (BEV) images rasterized from LiDAR and high-definition maps. Their accuracy on dynamic, moving actors, however, remains the hardest part of the task, and the strongest such model, DeTra, has no public implementation. We contribute an openly released DeTra reimplementation with documented approximations, and on top of it MC-DeTra: a family of motion-consistency mechanisms that add supervision through two annotation-derived auxiliary signals -- each actor's observed past motion and the occupancy of the surrounding traffic that forms its social context -- and one inter-output consistency constraint that aligns an actor's predicted heading with its predicted direction of motion. Every proposed loss is train-only and inference-safe: it shapes the shared BEV representation during training and is removed at test time, adding no inference latency. On the Waymo Open Dataset, evaluated under a strict, detection-conditioned forecasting protocol, MC-DeTra improves dynamic, socially-situated trajectory forecasting while preserving or improving detection accuracy; a gradient-based loss-calibration analysis exposes how the auxiliary objectives compete at the shared backbone, and our ablation identifies which signals contribute most. We release code, configurations, and evaluation tooling at https://github.com/diuzhevVlad/MC-DeTra.

UAV target following in cluttered environments requires anticipating target motion. Followers that use only the current target state can lag behind turns or choose blocked corridors. They may also trade safe near-horizon motion for lower tracking error. We propose a future-aware flow planning framework for state-informed UAV target following. Predicted target futures guide clean UAV trajectory generation through residual signals aligned with the planning horizon. Risk-scored repair of the executable prefix is embedded in the sampling loop. On fixed in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) receding-horizon benchmarks, the planner improves the safety--tracking trade-off. It matches zero measured ID collision rate and achieves the highest ID safe-tracking time fraction. It also gives the lowest OOD macro-average collision rate and final tracking error among the compared methods. It does not dominate every metric: Future-MPC remains smoother and stronger on some threshold-based OOD success metrics under its hand-designed objective. Controlled comparisons show that future conditioning with the adapter improves candidate generation before safety repair. Simulator-facing tests examine interface perturbations, sensing, and controller execution. These results support horizon-aligned future guidance and embedded prefix repair as complementary components for safe UAV target following under the tested simulation conditions.

Accurate long-term trajectory prediction for maritime vessels is essential for safety and logistical efficiency. While deep learning models, particularly Transformers, have shown promise in processing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, they often struggle with the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention and the loss of accuracy over extended forecasting horizons. This study proposes TempTPI, a novel prediction framework that integrates an Informer-based encoder with a multi-channel temporal encoding mechanism. The Informer architecture leverages a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism to reduce computational overhead and focus on the most significant dependencies, while the temporal encoder utilizes Fourier-like frequency expansions to capture cyclic patterns (hourly, daily, and seasonal) in vessel behavior. We evaluate our model against the state-of-the-art TPTrans architecture using AIS data from Danish waters. Experimental results demonstrate that TempTPI consistently outperforms existing methods across prediction windows of 1 to 5 hours. Notably, at a 5-hour horizon, the proposed model achieves a 55% improvement in Mean Squared Error (MSE), offering a robust solution for long-range maritime situational awareness.

Many pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithms have been proposed to improve the safety of navigation for mobile robots working in human-robot coexistence environments. Some pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithms extract information about obstacles near pedestrians from top-down view images to improve the accuracy of trajectory prediction. However, mobile robots typically create local occupancy maps using LiDAR, rather than top-down view images. Meanwhile, the vision sensors on board robots provide egocentric view images, which contain fine-grained behavioral information about the pedestrians near the robot. To better use the information collected by LiDAR and on-board vision sensors, we propose MamMA, a Mamba-based pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm considering occupancy maps and pedestrian awareness states. MamMA divides the occupancy map by patches and extracts obstacle features from each patch to create map features. Pedestrian awareness states are divided and considered, as some studies show that awareness states affect the perception and speed of pedestrians. Furthermore, a Mamba-based model is proposed to predict the future trajectories of pedestrians based on different types of features. Experiments on the STCrowd, SiT, JRDB, ETH, and UCY datasets show that MamMA achieves better average displacement error and final displacement error than the state-of-the-art algorithms.

In real-world applications, pedestrian trajectory prediction models rely on inputs from detection and tracking systems. Prior trajectory prediction benchmarks either contain relatively sparse pedestrian interactions, assume perfect tracking inputs, or rely on overhead viewpoints that minimize occlusion and perspective distortion, limiting evaluation in realistic dense-crowd scenarios. We present CrowdTraj, a benchmark for pedestrian trajectory prediction in natural dense crowd scenes. Unlike previous datasets, CrowdTraj supports end-to-end evaluation from detection through tracking to trajectory prediction under severe occlusion in CCTV views. It also captures diverse, natural pedestrian behaviours, including abrupt directional changes rarely observed in existing benchmarks. CrowdTraj includes five diverse scenes, with an average of 1,146 unique pedestrians per scene, maximum frame-level densities ranging from 114 to 372 pedestrians, and over 3.2 million annotated head bounding boxes. CrowdTraj provides pixel and real-world coordinates via per-scene homography matrices for physically meaningful analysis. Our experimental results show that tracking accuracy (IDF1) drops to 0.68 to 0.70 in the densest scenes, compared with approximately 0.90 in less crowded scenes. Trajectory prediction training also becomes substantially more computationally expensive in dense scenes, with training times increasing by up to 8 times. These findings show that CrowdTraj exposes limitations in current trajectory prediction pipelines that remain hidden on existing sparse-crowd benchmarks, particularly in robustness to tracking noise and computational scalability.

World models are an emerging paradigm in representation learning in which an agent jointly learns state-action dynamics and observation models from offline trajectory data, enabling multi-step planning and trajectory prediction with uncertainty estimates. They have shown strong results in robotics and game environments, but, to the best of our knowledge, have not previously been applied to the space domain. This paper introduces a world model-based approach to cooperative and non-cooperative spacecraft rendezvous and proximity operations. First, we introduce an open-source, JAX-based International Space Station (ISS) docking environment supporting parallel GPU simulation of spacecraft orbit and attitude dynamics, generating the thousands of state-action transitions that world model training requires. Second, we introduce Out-of-this-World-Model, a transformer-based world model that encodes relative kinematic states and body-fixed camera imagery into a latent state and predicts its evolution under commanded thrusts and torques using one-step flow matching. It produces a distribution over future observations, capturing stochastic dynamics and per-timestep uncertainty, and outperforms DreamerV3-style posterior-correction baselines with fewer trainable parameters and hyperparameters. Third, we apply the approach to a capsule autonomously docking with the ISS under keep-out-zone constraints, demonstrating improved sample efficiency and task performance over reinforcement learning baselines (53% versus 29% docking success across ports), better out-of-distribution generalization (on held-out ports the world model more than doubles baseline success, 40% versus 17%), and detection of anomalous objects encountered during approach with 98% classification accuracy. We open-source the simulation environment and model architecture to enable further study of this paradigm.

We study short- and mid-horizon UAV bounding-box forecasting on the FRED event-camera dataset. We use a constant-velocity Kalman filter over a full center-size box state as a strong physical baseline, and train a residual model to predict acceleration-like corrections from recent box history, filtered state features, and local event representations. This simple residual formulation consistently improves over the Kalman baseline, with event-conditioned models giving the strongest results among the evaluated methods. We further show that part of the residual target is predictable from anchor position and velocity alone, indicating that canonical FRED results can reflect both visual evidence and dataset-specific motion priors. To analyze this effect, we introduce decorrelated subsets as a diagnostic stress test, showing that event-conditioned residual models retain useful predictive signal even when measured position- and velocity-based shortcuts are weakened.

End-to-end autonomous driving models plan future trajectories from raw sensor input. While earlier driving benchmarks often measured deviation from the human trajectory, current benchmarks such as NAVSIM and Bench2Drive evaluate models with richer simulation-based metrics intended to capture safe and compliant driving. A high benchmark score should reflect that a model can understand the scene in front of it and act accordingly. But how much of that score specifically comes from reacting to the dynamic part of that scene? To probe this, we remove a model's camera input and replace it with memories from prior drives at the same location. The retrieved memories can provide persistent scene information, including road layout and location-conditioned regularities, but not the current traffic state. Surprisingly, memory is nearly sufficient on NAVSIM, reaching or even exceeding the performance of leading end-to-end methods without actually observing the evaluated scene. Our results suggest that a high NAVSIM score does not require a planner to react to the current traffic scene and should be treated with caution. This effect is benchmark-dependent: driving from memory causes substantially larger performance drops on Bench2Drive and RealEngine. We provide our code at https://github.com/boschresearch/MemoryDrivoR .

Most trajectory forecasting models are trained on clean annotated histories, and are often evaluated under the same idealized assumption, although practical deployments rely on trajectories produced by imperfect multi-object trackers. The real-world observations exhibit localization jitter, missed or unstable detections, and data-association ambiguity, which are usually either ignored or removed through denoising. This paper instead treats tracking-derived reliability cues as an informative signal to be propagated to the predictor. We propose a plug-in uncertainty-aware formulation in which each observed state is encoded as an uncertain state representation, modeled by a Gaussian distribution whose covariance combines detection-level localization uncertainty and association-level ambiguity through the law of total variance. Existing backbones are adapted with minimal architectural changes: input trajectories are represented as Gaussian observations, and predicted trajectories are produced as Gaussian forecasts rather than deterministic coordinates. To train predictors that remain robust under structured observation noise, we combine temporally correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck perturbations with response-based knowledge distillation from a teacher trained on clean trajectories. Experiments on Oxford Town Centre and VIRAT using real tracker outputs, together with a complementary ETH/UCY pseudo-detection protocol, show that the proposed formulation improves displacement accuracy and the reliability-sharpness trade-off of probabilistic forecasts.

We present a training-free method for multi-modal trajectory prediction that achieves comparable accuracy to a 57M-parameter transformer while requiring no GPU and zero learned parameters. The method builds a transition table of historical state-to-next position pairs and retrieves neighbors using a product kernel over spatial proximity, bearing, speed, and temporal context. Two inference modes operate over this shared representation: diversity-penalized sampling produces trajectories covering distinct plausible routes, while beam search finds the highest-likelihood path. On the TrAISformer benchmark (Danish Maritime AIS), our method achieves competitive accuracy at full data availability and dramatically outperforms the transformer in data-scarce regimes---remaining stable down to 10% of training data where TrAISformer degrades catastrophically. This enables deployment in new geographic regions from an order of magnitude less historical data.

Forecasting the long-horizon evolution of mechanical systems from position-only observations is a pivotal yet difficult task, as hidden velocities and trajectory-specific physical properties must be inferred simultaneously. Although physics-guided neural networks like Lagrangian Neural Networks (LNNs) guarantee physical plausibility, they generally require complete state inputs and lack adaptability to changing system parameters. To break these limitations, we introduce History-informed Lagrangian Neural Networks (HiLNN). Grounded in the insight that temporal position sequences implicitly encode underlying dynamics, HiLNN employs a recurrent encoder to extract a latent context from history. This context not only reconstructs the unobserved initial velocity but also adaptively modulates the mass matrix, potential energy, and damping coefficients of a structured Lagrangian system. By leveraging a differentiable RK4 rollout scheme, the entire pipeline is optimized end-to-end under multi-step trajectory supervision and energy-consistency regularization. Empirical evaluations across conservative, dissipative, and heterogeneous variable-parameter systems show that HiLNN delivers superior long-term prediction accuracy and maintains precise energy profiles compared to state-of-the-art baselines. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/yingtian22/History-informed-LNN.

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is critical for maritime safety and anomaly detection, yet existing models often struggle with geographic bias and navigational realism. We propose the Continuous Regression Hybrid Transformer (CRHT), a deep learning framework designed to forecast vessel motion using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. To mitigate spatial data imbalance, we introduce an online K-means cluster sampling strategy that ensures diverse exposure to rare maneuvers during training. Our hybrid architecture integrates 1D convolutional layers for local kinematic feature extraction with a multi-head attention mechanism for global temporal context. CRHT demonstrates superior performance in short-term forecasting, achieving the lowest errors at the 1-hour horizon. The results demonstrate that while discrete models provide high navigational stability over long horizons, CRHT offers an optimal balance of precision and maneuver tracking for real-time maritime surveillance.

Emerging World-Action Models (WAMs) have demonstrated promising performance in autonomous driving by jointly modeling future driving scene evolution and trajectory planning. However, existing WAMs are typically trained with video data, which is only 2D projections of the underlying 4D driving scene. Consequently, WAMs fail to understand and capture the structure of 4D scenes and thus generate visually plausible yet 4D inconsistent future predictions that mislead downstream planning. To alleviate this issue, we present 4D-WAM, a model that leverages geometric foundation models for training-time supervision to enable 4D consistent world modeling. Specifically, we feed WAM-predicted future frames into a geometric foundation model, and use 4D-aware responses to define a 4D consistency loss. This loss encourages the model to understand, represent, and predict physically consistent 4D scenes during training, without additional inference cost. Moreover, we identify an early-decision phenomenon in WAMs and propose a decision-oriented timestep sampling strategy that emphasizes supervision at early, high-noise stages, where driving decisions are primarily formed. By propagating 4D supervision to this critical decision-formation phase, the proposed strategy further improves trajectory planning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that 4D-WAM effectively models 4D consistent scene evolution and achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging NAVSIM-v1 and NAVSIM-v2 benchmarks.

Large video diffusion models provide rich spatiotemporal priors for autonomous driving, but existing world-action models often inherit the cost of iterative future-video generation even though deployment only requires an ego trajectory. We ask a more basic question: how much of a video diffusion model must be executed to make a reliable driving decision? Through a controlled study of video denoising timesteps and Diffusion Transformer (DiT) depth, we find that planning performance is largely insensitive to the tested video-noise levels, whereas strong trajectories can already be decoded from intermediate layers. Based on this observation, we introduce Adaptive-WAM, a quality-aware multi-exit planner built on a Wan2.2-5B backbone. Trajectory diffusion heads are attached to selected DiT blocks, and a lightweight trajectory-quality scorer terminates inference once the best trajectory decoded so far satisfies a quality threshold; otherwise, computation continues from the cached hidden state to a deeper exit. The deployed planner therefore avoids the iterative classifier-free denoising loop and VAE decoding required for future-video synthesis, while dynamically allocating backbone depth according to trajectory quality. On NAVSIM, the adaptive single-trajectory planner achieves 90.8 PDMS; a separate fixed-exit variant reaches 92.6 PDMS with 64 proposals. It further obtains 89.9 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2, yielding the best reported results among the compared front-view video world-model planners. Without target-domain fine-tuning, Adaptive-WAM transfers to nuScenes with 0.88 m average L2 error and a 0.08% collision rate. On an A100, adaptive routing improves PDMS from 90.62 to 90.79 while averaging 170 ms end-to-end planning latency, approximately 10% below the 190 ms fixed block-15 planner and 47% below the 320 ms fixed full-depth planner. Code will be released.

Trajectory prediction has shifted toward structured formulations with explicit social modeling. However, existing methods inadequately distinguish the functional roles of social influence in trajectory planning. Observing that agents typically form motion plans by anticipating others' future behaviors before making local reactive adjustments, we identify social interactions as playing staged roles, namely planning precedes reaction. We propose INTraJ, a unified framework that decomposes social influence into two stages: a planning stage constructs reference trajectories using future social information, and a reaction stage recovers local adjustments from the residual between full-context prediction and the reference. INTraJ supports both multi-target and single-target paradigms. Extensive experiments on four standard benchmarks, including Argoverse 2, Argoverse 2-ped, ETH/UCY, and SDD, demonstrate consistent improvements, particularly in FDE and long-horizon consistency, with state-of-the-art performance achieved in several settings. INTraJ reframes trajectory prediction as a planning-driven two-stage process, validating that staged social modeling is critical for stable predictions. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/11isnotavailable/INTraJ.

Forecasting precise future motion of surrounding agents is essential for reliable autonomous vehicles. However, as the demand for longer prediction horizons increases, existing endpoint-completion or iterative-refine methods increasingly struggle with weak guidance and compounding errors. To tackle the long-horizon prediction challenge, we propose Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction (PCTP). By introducing pivots'' and focusing on predicting pivot points along extended trajectories, we divide the long-term prediction task into short-term sub-tasks at various scales. Specifically, PCTP decouples the long-term trajectory predicting process into two processes: pivot prediction and pivot-based trajectory refinement. The pivot prediction process aims to utilize global map context and agent-to-agent interactions to identify these pivot points'', while the pivot-based trajectory refinement process focuses on local map details and refines the short-term trajectory based on predicted ``pivot points''. Compared with existing methods, PCTP provides more intermediate guidance while reducing compounding errors. Moreover, PCTP is a flexible approach that can be integrated into most state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Experimental results show that PCTP improves the prediction accuracy of leading models on both Argoverse I and Argoverse II datasets with minimal impact on model size. Specifically, PCTP combined with QCNet outperforms all published ensemble-free methods on the Argoverse II leaderboard at submission.

Image-goal visual navigation is a fundamental capability for embodied agents. Existing navigation policies efficiently predict waypoint trajectories but lack visual foresight, while navigation world models can anticipate future observations but often require costly planning rollouts. We present UniNav, a unified world-action model that generates future visual observations and continuous waypoint trajectories through a single diffusion process. Given history frames and a goal image, UniNav jointly denoises visual and waypoint tokens within a single transformer, unifying future prediction and action generation in a shared framework. To improve spatial grounding, we incorporate geometry-aware camera tokens. We also train on both trajectory-labeled navigation data and video-only data, enabling the model to benefit from diverse videos without waypoint annotations. Based on this unified framework, we introduce two variants: UniNav-Full jointly predicts interpretable future observations and their corresponding trajectories, while UniNav-Fast removes future-image tokens at inference for efficient trajectory prediction. Experiments on navigation benchmarks show that UniNav outperforms the strongest baseline in ATE across all datasets. With one-step inference, UniNav-Fast achieves a latency of 0.1s without a substantial accuracy drop. Code will be released.

End-to-end driving requires a coherent understanding of future scenes, yet existing methods model these scenes using task-specific heads and output formats, with limited scalability. Can video generation instead provide a shared predictor? We introduce SUV, a unified end-to-end driving framework that casts future Scene Understanding as Video generation using a pretrained video foundation model. SUV models future appearance, semantics, relative depth, and instance-level dynamics as video streams with a shared video expert, without stream-specific visual prediction heads. Through joint video-action attention, the action expert attends to the latent representations of all future streams and generates the ego trajectory. Experiments show that SUV directly predicts all four future streams, while controlled ablations show that structured future supervision and direct future-stream access yield higher trajectory planning scores. With only a single front camera and no candidate-trajectory selection, SUV outperforms a broad set of recent state-of-the-art methods on both NAVSIM-v2 splits, achieving 91.0 EPDMS on navtest and 36.9 on navhard. On the long-tail WOD-E2E benchmark, SUV achieves a competitive RFS of 7.94.

Realistic and diverse trajectory generation is central to enabling higher levels of vehicle automation. While rule-based and classical learning-based methods may struggle to capture the complexity of traffic behavior, generative models have already demonstrated in other fields that they can handle a comparable level of complexity. In this paper, we build upon previous work on generative adversarial network (GAN)-based semantic bird's-eye-view traffic generation and extend the proposed framework in several key aspects. We improve the semantic representation, replace the trajectory extraction procedure with a graph-based association method, and systematically investigate increasingly larger fields of view. In addition, we introduce a quantitative evaluation framework to assess hallucinations and object permanence in generated videos. Our experiments demonstrate that the framework generalizes to larger and more complex traffic scenes while maintaining statistically realistic trajectories and coherent spatial relationships between traffic participants. Within 150GPU hours of training and with inference times below 20ms for scenes of up to 20s, our results demonstrate that video-based GANs remain an efficient and scalable approach for realistic trajectory generation, even in substantially larger traffic scenes, making them well suited for downstream tasks such as prediction, planning, and simulation in automated driving.

On-policy distillation (OPD) provides teacher supervision on states visited by the student, reducing the distribution gap between training and inference. However, in multi-turn agentic tasks, student deviations may accumulate over time, gradually moving the trajectory away from states where teacher guidance remains effective. Our quantitative analysis further shows that high-disagreement states offer promising opportunities for teacher guidance, but determining whether such guidance is beneficial requires examining its effect on subsequent student trajectories. We propose FutureBridge-OPD (FTB), which executes a short teacher bridge at a high disagreement state and uses the resulting student continuation to assess whether the bridge increases the density of positive distillation signals relative to the teacher. On ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld, under the main Qwen3-32B teacher to Qwen3-1.7B student setting, FTB outperforms vanilla OPD and TCOD by an average of 16.6 and 7.6 points, respectively, and remains effective across student scales and teacher settings. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ChenChiShui/FutureBridge-OPD.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) enables parameter-efficient fine-tuning, but standard LoRA produces a single deterministic model and does not directly support predictive uncertainty estimation. We introduce EulerLoRA, a stochastic extension of LoRA that generates multiple predictive trajectories by sampling structured variations along the rank-one components of shared low-rank adapters, while preserving the deterministic LoRA transformation in expectation. We evaluate EulerLoRA with vision transformers on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and HAM10000, together with out-of-distribution detection on SVHN. Across these benchmarks, EulerLoRA achieves comparable or improved performance relative to strong LoRA-Ensemble baselines. Using two rank-20 adapters, EulerLoRA requires approximately 3 million trainable adapter parameters, compared with about 10 million for a rank-8, 16-adapter LoRA-Ensemble, corresponding to roughly 69% fewer trainable parameters. These results show that useful predictive diversity can be obtained from a small number of shared adapters.

Trajectory prediction of surrounding agents is a prerequisite for safe planning and decision making in autonomous driving. Without high-definition (HD) maps, sensor-derived bird's-eye-view (BEV) features provide no explicit lane topology or drivable-area priors, making it inherently difficult to ground each agent in its surrounding scene context. Moreover, physical feasibility remains difficult to capture through data-driven learning alone, as kinematic constraints on agent motion cannot be explicitly encoded without structured supervision. Existing map-free predictors extract scene context in an agent-agnostic manner through a single fusion step and treat physical constraints only as output-level penalties, leaving both challenges unaddressed. We propose SIPTraj, a map-free trajectory prediction framework that jointly addresses scene grounding and physical feasibility. SIPTraj introduces a Hierarchical Agent-Scene Encoder (HASE) progressively grounding each agent in agent-guided scene evidence and refining inter-agent relations within the scene-grounded space. To tackle physical infeasibility in predicted trajectories, we develop a Physics-Guided Iterative Decoder (PGID). It conditions decoding on instantaneous kinematic states, propagating physical supervision into internal representations rather than output trajectories alone. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 Sensor show that SIPTraj surpasses prior map-free predictors and strong map-based baselines without any HD map at inference. Our code will be released as open-source.

Existing autonomous-driving world models typically perform dense prediction of future videos, occupancy states, BEV representations, or agent motion. We argue that planning need not reconstruct the complete future world, but only focus on scene features that affect future ego action. Based on this perspective, we propose Auto-JEPA, an action-oriented latent world model that learns continuous future driving intent through joint-embedding prediction. Given visual observations, egomotion history, and navigation commands, Auto-JEPA predicts an intent embedding aligned with the latent representation of the future ego trajectory. The predicted intent retrieves executable trajectories from a fixed trajectory memory, which are then ranked by a scene-conditioned candidate selection module. Auto-JEPA keeps the visual encoder frozen, requires no explicit perception annotations, and uses no learned trajectory generator. By optimizing only task-specific modules for trajectory representation, intent prediction, and candidate selection, Auto-JEPA achieves 91.3 PDMS on NAVSIM v1 and 89.1 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2. Semantic occlusion experiments show that masking dynamic-agent regions induces an average intent change 2.97x that of equal-area random masking. Moreover, occluding vehicles that affect future driving substantially changes the predicted intent and selected trajectory, whereas both remain essentially unchanged when non-influential vehicles are occluded. These results show that future-intent prediction encourages the model to focus on planning-relevant visual features and supports high-quality planning without dense future-world modeling.

Long-term ship trajectory prediction is a fundamental capability for maritime safety and autonomous navigation. While recent Transformer-based architectures have improved forecasting horizons, they predominantly rely on historical kinematic states, treating vessel motion as an isolated system. In reality, maritime navigation is profoundly modulated by extrinsic factors like weather and constrained by static vessel characteristics. Existing multimodal approaches fundamentally model the joint distribution over states and contexts, treating environmental variables as peer features rather than encoding the directional physical dependence of vessel dynamics on environmental conditions. In this work, we propose the Conditional Informer, a novel encoder-decoder architecture that formulates trajectory prediction as a conditional generation task. We employ a dedicated Conditional Attention mechanism where the vessel state explicitly queries environmental contexts through cross-attention, encoding the physical prior that weather modulates - but is not generated by - vessel dynamics. Furthermore, to address the intermittency of real-world data, we introduce a Modality Masking training strategy to prevent catastrophic degradation during sensor fallback. Extensive experiments on AIS and ERA5 data demonstrate that our approach outperforms kinematic and concatenation-based baselines by 15.4% in prediction accuracy when context is available. Crucially, Modality Masking prevents shortcut learning, reducing fallback error by nearly an order of magnitude compared to unconstrained models.

Modeling and forecasting nonlinear dynamics under distribution shifts is essential for robust decision-making in real-world systems. In this work, we propose MetaKoopman, a Bayesian meta-learning framework for modeling nonlinear dynamics through linear latent representations. MetaKoopman learns a Matrix Normal-Inverse Wishart (MNIW) prior over the Koopman operator, enabling closed-form Bayesian updates conditioned on recent trajectory segments. Moreover, it provides a closed-form posterior predictive distribution over future state trajectories, capturing both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the learned dynamics. We evaluate MetaKoopman on a full-scale autonomous truck and trailer system across a wide range of adverse winter scenarios, including snow, ice, and mixed-friction conditions, as well as in simulated control tasks with diverse distribution shifts. MetaKoopman consistently outperforms prior approaches in multi-step prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration, and robustness to distributional shifts. Field experiments further demonstrate its effectiveness in dynamically feasible motion planning, particularly during evasive maneuvers and operation at the limits of traction. Project website: https://mahmoud-selim.github.io/MetaKoopman/

Trajectory data collected in real-world settings is frequently incomplete due to sensor failure, communication loss, or occlusion. We address the task of \emph{trajectory inpainting}: reconstructing contiguous missing segments from observed context. We propose a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) with symmetric dilation that relaxes the standard causality constraint, allowing each time step to draw on both past and future observations, a property that is essential for inpainting, but absent from forecasting-oriented architectures. The model is trained with a composite loss that combines weighted mean squared error, boundary--continuity penalties, and a smoothness regularizer. Trained on a synthetic dataset of $1,000$ (train), $200$ (validation), and $300$ (test) two-dimensional trajectories with randomly placed 20% masked segments, the model achieves good R$^{2}$, MSE and MAE metrics.

Frozen perception foundation models encode rich geometric, semantic, and dynamic knowledge. Yet narrow conditioning interfaces may attenuate task-relevant cues, while static fusion cannot adjust expert contributions to each scene. We cast this challenge as the prior-to-plan transfer problem and introduce PerceptDrive, a perception prior world-action modeling framework with adaptive expert routing. PerceptDrive feeds teacher-distilled priors from a frozen, driving-adapted provider and dense observation latents from a frozen self-supervised video encoder into a trainable expert-routed world-action model. Expert-specific query branches process these signals, while a prior-retention objective anchors each branch to its prior. A router predicts soft gates from a shared scene representation and combines the expert conditions before trajectory generation. During training, privileged rule-based sub-metric estimates for branch-specific trajectory drafts provide soft-gate distillation targets. The predicted action-free future latent conditions a flow-matching actor. At inference, privileged components are absent; with one front-facing camera, PerceptDrive generates one trajectory per planning step without test-time scoring, reranking, or search. Experiments show that PerceptDrive achieves state-of-the-art performance with 90.4 PDMS on NAVSIM v1 and 90.2 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2, outperforming existing methods. Ablations confirm complementary gains from prior retention and scene-conditioned routing, alongside differential reliance on the three priors. These results demonstrate that preserving and adaptively routing perception priors improves direct planning without test-time candidate selection.

Long-range vehicle trajectories provide important spatio-temporal evidence for traffic safety analysis, autonomous driving evaluation, and data-driven traffic management, yet continuously recovering them from fixed highway cameras remains difficult. As vehicles recede into distant road regions, perspective compression and scale decay often fragment or prematurely terminate automatic tracklets, even when their continuation remains identifiable from motion consistency across neighboring frames. We formulate this problem as recovering the far-range continuation of a vehicle trajectory from a reliable near-field tracklet. We introduce LoRFT, to our knowledge the first open benchmark dedicated to long-range vehicle trajectory reconstruction from fixed highway cameras. LoRFT comprises 22 expressway surveillance scenes, 366,109 video frames, 6,601 manually verified trajectories, 2,694,889 bounding boxes, road-geometry annotations, scene-level splits, and evaluation scripts. We further propose Map-RSTNet, a map-aware residual sequence-to-sequence model that reconstructs distant trajectories in a road-geometry-aligned state space and dynamically refreshes local road geometry during decoding. On LoRFT, Map-RSTNet reduces ADE, FDE, and 5-second RMSE by 11.0%, 15.4%, and 10.5%, respectively, relative to the strongest baseline. These results demonstrate that road-geometry-aware reconstruction can extend usable trajectory records from existing fixed-camera infrastructure. LoRFT provides a reproducible testbed for long-range vehicle trajectory reconstruction.

Vessel trajectory prediction in complex maritime environments is essential for traffic management, collision warning, route planning, and autonomous navigation. Although AIS-based learning methods have progressed rapidly, existing datasets are often released as raw message streams or irregular time series, with inconsistent sampling rates, noisy observations, heterogeneous coordinate systems, and non-unified scenario protocols. Most public AIS resources also lack structured representations of navigational lanes, waterway geometry, and navigable-region constraints, limiting reproducible, environment-aware forecasting. To address this, we introduce NaviAIS, a standardized scenario-level AIS dataset for vessel trajectory prediction. It organizes multi-vessel historical-future trajectories within unified temporal windows and local coordinate systems, and provides rasterized navigable maps, vectorized lane priors, lane graphs, and structured map representations. Compared with existing datasets, it jointly supports vectorized lanes, multi-scenario coverage, vectorized maps, open accessibility, and processed trajectories. Built on this dataset, we propose NaviLane, a hierarchical macro-action framework for map-aware prediction. NaviLane first performs trajectory-map joint encoding for a unified scene representation, then uses a discrete macro-action codebook to generate multimodal candidates coarse-to-refined. A residual refinement module improves local geometric and dynamical consistency, and a world-model-based consequence-aware evaluator ranks candidates by interaction risk and environmental feasibility. Experiments show NaviLane outperforms representative baselines in both single-modal and multimodal settings, confirming the value of structured navigational priors, hierarchical multimodal generation, and consequence-aware evaluation.

Reinforcement-learning navigation policies for legged robots select actions reactively from current observations and short-term memory, with limited capacity to anticipate how moving obstacles will evolve in the near future. In dynamic environments, this reactivity causes the robot to respond too late because collision risk depends on short-horizon scene structure rather than on current obstacle positions alone. Lightweight predictive supervision applied to the policy's recurrent state during training can encode anticipatory obstacle dynamics without modifying the inference-time controller. We augment a reactive LSTM-SRU navigation backbone with an auxiliary JEPA-style predictor and SIGReg regularization: during training, the predictor supervises the deterministic hidden state to anticipate its own next state; at inference, it is fully discarded, incurring zero additional computational cost. On simulated and real-world navigation benchmarks with dynamic obstacles, our method substantially improves navigation success while reducing collision rates through the predictive training signal alone, without additional inference-time parameters. Real-robot deployment on a Unitree Go2 demonstrates zero-shot sim-to-real transfer: the controller navigates cluttered indoor and dynamic outdoor environments without fine-tuning, with evasive behavior consistent with the collision reduction observed in simulation.

Autonomous driving requires both safe and efficient planning decisions in dynamic 3D environments. Although recent Vision/Video-Action models learn policies directly from visual observations and scale well with advances in vision transformers and large-scale training data, they often lack explicit geometric grounding and future-aware spatial guidance, limiting their ability to balance collision avoidance and driving progress. In this work, we propose GeoWorldAD, a geometry world action model that grounds trajectory planning in ego-aligned 3D space and anticipates short-horizon scene evolution with latent future geometry tokens. Present geometry provides essential spatial constraints for safe planning, while future geometry reveals how surrounding agents and ego-centric free space may evolve, reducing overly conservative decisions without sacrificing safety. To efficiently exploit these geometric cues, GeoWorldAD progressively aggregates multi-scale present geometry and latent future geometry through iterative trajectory refinement. Experiments on NAVSIM v1 and v2 demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, highlighting the effectiveness of explicit 3D geometry grounding and future geometry world modeling for safe and efficient autonomous driving.

Many complex systems such as brain networks, financial markets, and gene-regulatory circuits are described not by a fixed graph but by one that changes over time. A standard way to summarise such structure at each instant is the sparse precision (inverse-covariance) matrix, and the time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL) turns a multivariate signal into a smooth chain of these matrices. We introduce TVGL-CFM, a single model that learns the distribution of such chains and can both generate new, realistic time-varying network trajectories for a given class and forecast how an observed trajectory will continue. Each precision matrix lives on a curved space of positive-definite matrices, but a log-Euclidean chart flattens an entire trajectory into an ordinary vector space, so a simple conditional flow-matching model can be trained and sampled there while every decoded matrix is guaranteed to be a valid precision matrix. For forecasting we start the flow not from noise but from a rough extrapolation of the recent history, so the model only has to learn a small correction. Across EEG motor-imagery, chaotic systems, and gene-expression data, TVGL-CFM generates trajectories that keep the class-discriminative structure of real data, and it forecasts future connectivity more accurately than raw-signal baselines. Generating the structured precision trajectory directly is therefore more faithful than generating raw signals and estimating connectivity afterwards.

This paper presents a trajectory prediction method for marine vessels based on optimal planning. Crude initial trajectories respecting static obstacles are first generated using A*-search to provide a feasible warm start. In the second step, a numerical optimizer is used to ensure COLREG compliance. The prediction problem is posed as sequential trajectory planning from the perspective of each surrounding vessel, requiring only their current positions, velocities, and intended destinations as input. As the latter is included in AIS messages, this enables faster predictions than learning-based methods that typically require longer data histories. The proposed method is validated using real-world scenarios constructed from AIS data.

End-to-end trajectory planners need to represent multiple plausible driving behaviors while producing a single executable trajectory under real-time constraints. Proposal-based approaches address this ambiguity by generating multiple candidates, but converting the proposal set into a final plan remains a key design problem. We present DRIFT, a fixed-depth planner that combines one-step drifting in a compact trajectory latent space with scene-aware proposal aggregation. Conditioned on features from a pretrained visual encoder, the DRIFT Decoder generates 48 proposal features in a single batched pass, with 32 samples at alpha=0.5 and 16 samples at alpha=0.9. A lightweight Aggregation Head integrates these features with scene, navigation, and ego-state information and directly predicts the final trajectory without requiring trajectory-level quality labels for aggregation. Its output is trained with expert-trajectory imitation and a map-derived boundary regularizer that penalizes waypoints outside the drivable polygon and inside waypoints near its boundary. On NAVSIM navtest, DRIFT achieves 89.6 PDMS and 90.4 EPDMS, with strong drivable-area compliance and ego progress among the methods compared. The proposal-generation and aggregation module runs in 10.82 ms on an NVIDIA RTX 4090, while full-model inference including the visual backbone takes 66.43 ms. These results show that one-step latent proposal generation and direct aggregation provide an efficient design for multi-hypothesis motion planning.

Vehicle intention prediction is a pivotal aspect in the agility and safety of autonomous vehicles in all driving scenarios; if genuine enhancement of autonomous vehicles are required, we need to make them adopt human interpretation of driver's intention especially in cases that require a lot of human interaction as well as complex driving behaviors like the ones at intersections, roundabouts and emergency cases such as sudden stops where vehicle intention prediction helps in taking the correct evasive action within a real time period where every second of action makes an impact and can prevent a catastrophe from taking place. In the worst case, it helps minimize the damage and make safety a priority. Intention prediction can also be used to enhance trajectory prediction (intention conditioned trajectory prediction). In this study, The INTENT framework is proposed using LSTM model to predict the vehicle's intention at intersections 2 seconds ahead of the event occurrence to predict whether the cars in intersections are going straight, turning left, or turning right. Various model experiments and ablation study are thoroughly tested on InD dataset achieving 99.71% accuracy.

Bird's-Eye View (BEV) end-to-end instance prediction has emerged as a robust paradigm for autonomous driving perception, effectively mitigating the error propagation inherent in traditional modular pipelines. However, current state-of-the-art approaches rely predominantly on geometric supervision, such as occupancy regression and optical flow, effectively treating scene agents as generic moving obstacles. This absence of explicit semantic awareness imposes limitations on the capacity of the model to solve ambiguities in complex scenarios, particularly those where object-specific behavior is essential for accurate forecasting (e.g. overtaking, intersections). In this paper, we introduce Text-Guided Representation for Instance Prediction (TGRIP), a novel framework that bridges this gap by injecting rich semantic priors into the instance prediction loop. The proposed teacher-student pipeline employs Vision-Language Foundation Models to generate dense, semantic-enhanced BEV maps from multi-camera images. These maps serve as auxiliary supervision during training, guiding the network to learn spatio-temporal representations that are not only geometrically consistent but also semantically discriminative. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first attempt to unify semantic guidance with the temporal task of future instance prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that TGRIP surpasses existing state-of-the-art models in nuScenes, validating the hypothesis that semantic enrichment is a fundamental element for robust, end-to-end motion prediction. Code is available on https://github.com/miguelag99/TGRIP.

Vision-Language-Action Models (VLAs), which leverage the advanced reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), show promising generalization in complex autonomous driving scenarios. Existing VLAs typically predict and optimize 3D trajectories from 2D images. While intuitive, this 2D-to-3D prediction is inherently entangled with camera parameters, leading to limited data scalability across heterogeneous driving datasets. Moreover, directly optimizing in 3D space induces severe convergence to trivial solutions, where VLAs rely on ego-status rather than visual scene understanding. To address these issues, we propose PixelPilot, a novel VLA featuring a decoupled planning and lifting paradigm. In the planning phase, PixelPilot reformulates scene understanding and trajectory prediction as sensor-agnostic 2D-to-2D tasks in the image plane, thereby facilitating scalable training across diverse datasets. The planned 2D trajectories are then deterministically lifted to 3D only during inference, ensuring the full exploitation of visual cues and generalization across different vehicles. To realize this paradigm, we propose a knowledge-instilled policy learning strategy that applies dense, intermediate rewards via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to enforce a rigorous causal chain from visual perception to spatial planning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PixelPilot achieves state-of-the-art performance in both open-loop and closed-loop settings, validating its superior scalability and visual reasoning capabilities.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in industrial control often suffers from lag and overshoot due to purely reactive control based on the current tracking error. To achieve anticipatory control without high computational overhead, we introduce a predictive formulation that augments the DRL state space with target velocities and future reference horizons. Evaluating eight configurations using proximal policy optimization (PPO) on a 1-degree-of-freedom (1-DoF) helicopter testbed, simulation results showed a 9-fold error reduction, lowering the mean absolute deviation from 2.73° to 0.31°. However, zero-shot transfer to physical hardware revealed a sim-to-real gap. Interestingly, a simpler configuration using a single, further look-ahead horizon matched the real-world top performance of the most complex model (1.11°). Overall, evaluating various combinations of prediction horizons and target velocities demonstrated that highly granular predictive data is not necessarily required for physical transfer.

Accurate trajectory prediction in autonomous driving hinges on modeling dynamic and context-dependent interactions among traffic agents. However, most existing approaches are purely data-driven and lack structural priors, which limits their generalization under distribution shifts. In this work, interaction modeling is revisited through the structure and dynamics of traffic networks, and SWIFT (Small-World Interaction Framework for Trajectory prediction) is proposed as a unified framework that integrates small-world networks with traffic flow theory. SWIFT introduces structural inductive biases via a Small-World Interaction Network that captures both local and global dependencies, and a Flow Regime Encoder that adapts the interaction structure to scene-level traffic states. Interaction reasoning is further enhanced through a multi-relational graph module that explicitly encodes direct and higher-order agent relationships. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets, nuScenes, MoCAD, and NGSIM, show that SWIFT consistently outperforms strong baselines in prediction accuracy across diverse traffic regimes. Beyond accuracy, SWIFT exhibits improved generalization to unseen locations and regimes, robustness under noisy observations, and strong performance with limited training data, supporting the effectiveness of its structure-aware design.

Safe motion planning in advanced driver-assistance systems and autonomous vehicles requires an accurate understanding of how the surrounding traffic scene is likely to evolve. However, many existing lane-change prediction methods remain centered on a single target vehicle, while multi-agent forecasting approaches often describe scene evolution only through future positions and provide limited explicit information about the maneuver associated with each vehicle. This study proposes a dynamic scene graph attention framework that predicts the lane-change intention and future trajectory of every relevant vehicle within a local traffic scene. The scene is represented as a time-varying interaction graph in which vehicles are modeled as nodes and their spatial and kinematic relationships are encoded through explicit edge features. Temporal graph-attention message passing captures evolving inter-vehicle dependencies and pre-maneuver cues, while an intention-guided decoder links each predicted maneuver to its corresponding future motion. A scene-level consistency objective further encourages compatible multi-vehicle futures. Experiments on the NGSIM I-80, NGSIM US-101, and highD datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over competing baselines. DSiGAT achieves intention prediction accuracies of 90.12% and 90.97% on NGSIM I-80 and US-101, respectively, and reduces trajectory RMSE by up to 52.94% relative to the strongest baseline. It also produces lower inter-agent collision rates and joint displacement errors, indicating more coherent scene-level predictions. Ablation, sensitivity, robustness, and qualitative analyses further validate the contribution of the proposed components and the effectiveness of the scene-focused formulation.

This paper presents SD-RouteFusion, a deployable end-to-end ego-trajectory prediction method that fuses a front-facing camera, vehicle kinematics, and a navigation route derived from a Standard Definition (SD) map. Unlike approaches that rely on High Definition (HD) map geometry, SD-RouteFusion aligns the learning objective with scalable and production-ready SD-map route inputs, enabling route-aware prediction without requiring HD-map infrastructure. First, we demonstrate that SD-map route prior provides a powerful long-horizon semantic prior. Through a comprehensive study on a large-scale real-world dataset comprising 480k driving scenarios across 10 European countries and the U.S., we quantify the value of SD-route conditioning: incorporating SD-map routes yields a 10.5% ADE improvement over an image-and-kinematics baseline, while our full fusion strategy achieves a 16.9% ADE reduction given a prediction horizon of 8 seconds. The fusion strategy consists of a dual-hypothesis design paired with a gated classifier, to ensure robustness under route corruption and visual uncertainty. Finally, to support broader evaluation, we release an SD-route generation toolkit that enables SD-route-conditioned ego-trajectory prediction on all datasets containing ego pose and future trajectories. Together, SD-RouteFusion establishes a practical path toward robust, route-aware ego-trajectory prediction at scale.

Accurate trajectory forecasting of surrounding traffic participants is a core capability for autonomous driving, enabling vehicles to anticipate behavior and plan safe maneuvers. We observe that current state-of-the-art forecasting models on Argoverse 2 and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset tailor their training objectives to the different benchmark metrics. Because these metrics encourage conflicting behavior, we propose a paradigm change for trajectory forecasting: training models with metric-agnostic probabilistic objectives and treating metric optimization as a downstream task applied to the predictive distribution. Concretely, we introduce Trajectory Distribution Evaluation (TraDiE) policies, metric-specific policies that map a predictive distribution to the set of $K$ trajectories and confidences required by trajectory forecasting metrics. We evaluate this framework by introducing DONUT-NLL, which adapts the training objective of the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model DONUT to directly optimize the predictive distribution. Using our policies, DONUT-NLL achieves state-of-the-art results on all metrics of the Waymo motion prediction benchmark.

End-to-end autonomous driving models often encounter performance bottlenecks, as training-time scaling leads to high computational costs and diminishing marginal returns. Existing planners typically adopt a one-shot generation paradigm, lacking secondary validation and active correction mechanisms to detect and revise suboptimal or unsafe trajectories during inference. To address this issue, we propose DriveVer, a lightweight, plug-and-play Test-Time Verifier that leverages the test-time scaling paradigm to enable autonomous driving systems to validate and refine trajectories without costly and heavy training. We construct a dedicated trajectory dataset based on the NAVSIM benchmark through condition-driven clustering and balanced sampling according to ego-vehicle states and navigation commands. Employing a dual-head architecture, DriveVer efficiently fuses candidate trajectories with multi-view visual representations and ego-vehicle kinematic features to simultaneously predict a safety confidence score and an absolute geometric refinement vector. Extensive experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark show that DriveVer significantly improves the performance of base planning models. Notably, as an extremely compact model with only 34M parameters, DriveVer introduces minimal computational overhead, achieving competitive results while maintaining real-time inference efficiency.

Most end-to-end autonomous driving methods rely solely on instantaneous sensor observations, limiting them to reactive behavior without the anticipatory foresight human drivers employ through prior experience. We introduce geospatial visual priors, street-level visual context anchored to the intended driving route, providing visual-spatial foresight independent of real-time sensors. We propose a memory augmentation module featuring a dual-memory architecture and an adaptive memory gate, which can be easily integrated into existing end-to-end approaches. This design pairs a contextual memory for retrieved priors with a persistent fallback memory, and dynamically regulates the influence of memories based on current state compatibility. Evaluated on the NAVSIM-v2 benchmark, our approach consistently improves performance across diverse end-to-end baselines. Furthermore, because these priors are independent of onboard sensors, our method inherently improves robustness against sensor corruption, while the dual-memory design ensures safe fallback when the retrieved priors themselves become unreliable. Our project page is available at https://ori-mrg.github.io/PriorEye.

Accurate 4D trajectory prediction and closed-loop tracking are essential for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms to achieve safe and efficient operations in complex low-altitude environments such as urban airspaces, industrial sites, and indoor facilities. However, this task remains challenging due to intrinsic nonlinearity of UAV swarm dynamics and strict real-time constraints of swarm formation control. To address these challenges, we propose a unified framework that couples coarse-to-fine trajectory forecasting with uncertainty-aware Distributed Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (DNMPC). Our approach features two key innovations: 1) a dimension-decoupled trajectory prediction module that reduces computational complexity by forecasting axis-wise motion, and 2) a diffusion-based residual dynamics refinement module that captures temporally correlated dynamic uncertainties. These refined predictions are then integrated into a DNMPC loop to ensure formation stability. We also introduce a synchronized multi-scenario 4D UAV swarm dataset spanning six representative airspace scenarios. The dataset contains over \textbf{7,900} frames of synchronized three-UAV trajectories with frame-level annotations of speed intention and target sector. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing trajectory tracking error by up to \textbf{10-15%} and achieving sub-\textbf{0.07,m} average tracking error in complex urban and industrial environments, while maintaining real-time inference speeds of 34 FPS (sub-30 ms latency) suitable for agile flight.