Uncertainty Calibration

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15 papers in the last four weeks, up 7% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Calibrated Hybrid CNN-Transformer for Retinal OCT Classification

    Jul 9, 2026Animesh KumarUncertainty QuantificationOptical Coherence Tomography

    School of Computing, Newcastle University, UK

  2. Heckman-Corrected Epistemic Uncertainty: Selection on Unobservables Defeats Importance Weighting

    Jul 7, 2026Gunner Levi HoweSelection BiasUncertainty Calibration

    Independent Researcher

  3. Interpretable Human-Label-Free Deep Learning for Real-Bogus Classification with Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 6, 2026Raphaël Bonnet-Guerrini, Bruno Sanchez, Dominique Fouchez +5Weakly Supervised LearningLearning with Noisy Labels

    Università degli Studi di Milano, Department of Computer Science, Milan 20133, Italy · Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS/IN2P3, CPPM, Marseille, France · Université Côte d’Azur, INRIA, CNRS, Laboratoire J.A.Dieudonné, Maasai team, Nice 06000, France +2

  4. Towards Robust Uncertainty-Aware Speaker Modeling

    Jul 6, 2026Junjie Li, Yang Xiao, Kong Aik LeeSpeaker VerificationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR · The University of Melbourne, Australia

  5. Uncertainty-Aware Abstention in Large Language Models with Provable Alignment Guarantees

    Jul 5, 2026Sijin Dong, Hiroyuki ShinnouSelective PredictionConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    1Ibaraki University, Japan.

  6. Evaluating LLM Uncertainty in Long-Form Generation Using Deterministic Ground Truth

    Jul 4, 2026Ido Amit, Ido Galil, Ran El-YanivLLM EvaluationLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    1Technion · 2Nvidia

  7. Bayesian Uncertainty Propagation for Agentic RAG Pipelines: A Proof-of-Concept Study on Multi-Hop Question Answering

    Jul 1, 2026Louis Donaldson, Connor Walker, Koorosh Aslansefat +1Uncertainty QuantificationAgentic RAG

    University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK

  8. TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates

    Jun 30, 2026Bharat Srikishan, Javier E. Santos, Nikhil Muralidhar +1PDE Surrogate ModelingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Stevens Institute of Technology · Los Alamos National Laboratory

  9. Ask the World Before Acting: Environment Probing for Calibrated Agent World Models

    Jun 30, 2026Xinyuan Song, Zekun CaiBelief-Space PlanningWorld Model Learning

    Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA · The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan · LocationMind, Tokyo, Japan

  10. Mind the Residual Gap: Probabilistic Downscaling under Real-World Bias

    Jun 29, 2026Yujin Kim, Nidhi Soma, Sarah DeanProbabilistic ForecastingUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Computer Science Cornell University Ithaca, NY, 14853

  11. Beyond Point Estimates for Glaucoma Visual Field Forecasting with Diffusion Models

    Jun 29, 2026Marta Colmenar Herrera, Pablo Márquez Neila, Şerife Seda Kucur Ergünay +2Spatiotemporal ForecastingUncertainty Calibration

    ARTORG Center for Biomedical Engineering Research, UniBe, Switzerland · PeriVision SA, Epalinges, Switzerland · Department of Ophthalmology, Inselspital, Bern, Switzerland

  12. Uncertainty Estimation in Pathology Foundation Models via Deep Mutual Learning

    Jun 29, 2026Gbègninougbo Aurel Davy Tchokponhoue, Sevda Öğüt, Ali Idri +2Pathology Foundation ModelsDeep Ensembles

    EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland · UM5, Rabat, Morocco

  13. Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation for Model Calibration

    Jun 29, 2026Han Zhou, Teodora Popordanoska, Matthew BlaschkoModel CalibrationKernel Density Estimation

    Department ESAT, Center for Processing Speech and Images, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

  14. The Calibrated Deepfake Trust Score (CDTS): Competence-Coupled Trust Degradation Across Deepfake Detectors

    Jun 28, 2026Md Anas BiswasDeepfake DetectionModel Calibration

    School of Computing, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, United Kingdom

  15. Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey +1Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

  16. Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA

    Jun 25, 2026Eren Senoglu, Federico Toschi, Nicolo Brunello +2Medical VQALanguage Model Calibration

    Politecnico di Milano

  17. Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets

    Jun 24, 2026Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik +5Computer-Use Agent BenchmarksUncertainty Quantification

    University of Illinois Chicago · Intel Labs · Capital One AI Labs

  18. Enhancing Clinician Decision-Making via Uncertainty-Aware Multi-Expert Fusion for Stroke Rehabilitation

    Jun 23, 2026Tamim Ahmed, Thanassis RikakisClinical Decision-MakingMultimodal Model Interpretability

    Bioemdical Engineering, University of Soutehrn California,, Los Angeles, 90007, CA, USA.

  19. Neural Conjugate Aggregation: Identifiable Unsupervised Multi-Sensor Regression under Heterogeneous Sensor Bias

    Jun 20, 2026Muhammed Faruk Aytin, Zehra Demir, Alper Unal +2Bayesian InferenceUncertainty Calibration

    AI and Data Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye · Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye · Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

  20. Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Confidence Calibration

    Jun 19, 2026Omprakash Chakraborty, Leo Fillioux, Ismail Ben Ayed +1Post-Hoc CalibrationProbability Calibration

    1 ÉTS Montréal, Canada · Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec, Gustave Roussy, INSERM, CDSU, IHU PRISM, Gif-sur-Yvette

  21. Embedding Linear Equality Constraints in Probabilistic Neural Networks for Dynamic Modelling

    Jun 19, 2026Matthew Marsh, Benoit Chachuat, Antonio del Rio ChanonaNeural Surrogate ModelingBayesian Neural Networks

    The Sargent Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

  22. Continuous-Time Probabilistic Correctors for Uncertainty-Aware Physics-Based Spacecraft Trajectory Forecasting

    Jun 19, 2026Muhammad Bilal Shahid, Zhanhong Jiang, Soumik Sarkar +1Neural Controlled Differential EquationsUncertainty Quantification

    Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, 50011, USA

  23. Toward Calibrated Mixture-of-Experts Under Distribution Shift

    Jun 18, 2026Gina Wong, Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria +2Distribution Shift RobustnessModel Calibration

    Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.

  24. Confidence is Not Reliability: Rethinking MC Dropout in Brain Tumour Segmentation

    Jun 17, 2026Xin Ci Wong, Duygu Sarikaya, Kieran Zucker +2Segmentation Uncertainty EstimationUncertainty Calibration

    Centre for Doctoral Training in AI for Medical Diagnosis and Care, School of Computing, University of Leeds · School of Computer Science, University of Leeds · Leeds Cancer Centre, St James’s University Hospital, Leeds, UK

  25. Amortized Probabilistic Retrieval of Atmospheric CO2 from OCO-2 Spectra Using Deep Learning with Laplace Approximations and Normalizing Flows

    Jun 16, 2026Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga, Felix Jimenez, Jack Grosskreuz +3Amortized InferenceRemote Sensing

    Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin–Madison · Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

  26. Calibrated Sampling-Free Uncertainty Estimation in Bayesian Deep Learning

    Jun 15, 2026Tobias Jan Wieczorek, Leon de Andrade, Thomas Möllenhoff +1Bayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    TU Darmstadt & hessian.AI, Darmstadt, Germany · RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, Tokyo, Japan

  27. Bayesian 3D Steerable CNNs: Enabling Equivariance and Uncertainty Quantification Simultaneously

    Jun 13, 2026Abhishek Keripale, Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan, Susanta GhoshBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931 · Hopkins Extreme Materials Institute, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 · The Center for Artificial Intelligence at the Institute of Computing and Cybersystems, Michigan Technological University, USA

  28. Uncertainty Estimation and Generalization Bounds for Modern Deep Learning

    Jun 11, 2026Luis A. OrtegaBayesian Neural NetworksNeural Network Generalization

    Department of Computer Science Machine Learning Group Madrid

  29. Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems

    Jun 11, 2026Sam F. Greenbury, Radka Jersakova, Paolo Conti +4Surrogate ModelingProbabilistic Forecasting

    The Alan Turing Institute · Autodesk Research · PhysicsX +3

  30. Modelling magnetic material properties with uncertainty-aware neural networks

    Jun 10, 2026Clemens Wager, Heisam Moustafa, Alexander Kovacs +10Uncertainty QuantificationMaterials Property Prediction

    Christian Doppler Laboratory for magnet design through physics informed machine learning, University for Continuing Education Krems, Wr. Neustadt, 2700, Austria · Vienna Doctoral School in Physics, Vienna, Austria · Department for integrated sensor systems, University for Continuing Education Krems, Wr. Neustadt, 2700, Austria +1