Weather Forecasting

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 64% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 102

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A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors
Jun 17, 2026David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia +2Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Recurrent Transformers
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY, USA · University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA · State Weather Risk Communication Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY, USA
Physics-Constrained Neural Networks for Improved Short-Term Weather Forecasting: A Case Study over the South Pacific
Jun 16, 2026Egor Bugaev, Fedor Buzaev, Dmitry Efremenko +2Physics-Informed ML Weather Forecasting
Faculty of Computer Science Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russia
Predictive Modeling of High-Altitude Clear Air Turbulence in the United States: A Machine Learning Approach
Jun 16, 2026Kadir Gokdeniz, Irem UlkuWeather Forecasting
PhysMetrics.Weather: An Evaluation Framework for Physical Consistency in ML Weather Models
Jun 9, 2026Emma Kasteleyn, Timo Maier, Axel Lauer +3Forecasting Benchmarks Physics-Informed ML
University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany · University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany +1
Crop Recommendation and Agricultural Query Answering System Using Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks and Hybrid Retrieval Augmentation
Jun 8, 2026Prajwal Thapa, Yagya Raj PandeyaQuestion Answering Precision Agriculture
Kathmandu University Dhulikhel, Nepal
Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts
Jun 7, 2026Ágnes Baran, Máté MihalinaProbabilistic Forecasting Regression Prediction Intervals
Faculty of Informatics, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
Physics-Guided Dual Decoding and Spectral Supervision for Global 3D Hydrometeor Prediction
Jun 7, 2026Dandan Chen, Yaqiang WangPhysics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Performance Evaluation of GraphCast for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting over Brazil
Jun 4, 2026Wolfgang R. Rowell, Lucas S. KupssinsküForecasting Benchmarks Weather Forecasting
MALTA, Machine Learning Theory and Applications Lab, PUCRS, Porto Alegre, Brazil
Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels
Jun 1, 2026Jose Marie Antonio Miñoza, Rex Gregor Laylo, Sebastian C. IbañezUncertainty Quantification Independent Component Analysis
Center for AI Research · Department of Education · Makati, Philippines
Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rollouts
May 28, 2026Fanny Lehmann, Firat Ozdemir, Yun Cheng +4Forecasting Benchmarks Weather Forecasting
ETH AI Center ETH Zurich · Swiss Data Science Center ETH Zurich & EPFL · Scalable Parallel Computing Lab ETH Zurich +3
Skillful high-resolution weather forecasting independent of physical models
May 27, 2026Pengcheng Zhao, Siqi Xiang, Weixin Jin +10Weather Forecasting
1Microsoft Corporation. · University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. · 3The Alan Turing Institute, London, United Kingdom.
RealBench: Benchmarking Data-Driven Numerical Weather Forecasting Under Operational Conditions and Extreme Event Challenges
May 24, 2026Ruize Li, Zhibin Wen, Tao Han +5Benchmark Design Forecasting Benchmarks
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Nanjing University · Southern University of Science and Technology +2
The physics of AI weather models
May 22, 2026George Craig, Tobias Selz, Matthias Beylich +1AI for Science Representational Similarity Analysis
Meteorological Institute, LMU Munich · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Hybrid Quantum-Classical Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Meteorological Downscaling
May 22, 2026Rui Wang, Edoardo Pasetto, Amer Delilbasic +3Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML Variational Quantum Circuits
Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany · University of Iceland, Reykjav´ık, Iceland · RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany +1
Seeing Inside the Storm: Improving Nowcasting by Integrating Meteorological Drivers
May 22, 2026Minghui Qiu, Jun Chen, Lin Chen +5Precipitation Forecasting Remote Sensing
HKUST(GZ) · Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory
AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion
May 20, 2026Somnath Luitel, Manmeet Singh, Joshua Durkee +11Geospatial Foundation Models Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA · NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA +3
Improving Ensemble CAPE Forecasts with a Diffusion Model Incorporating Aerosol Information
May 19, 2026Zachary James, Joseph Guinness, Arthur DeGaetanoProbabilistic Forecasting Diffusion Models
Cornell University, Department of Statistics and Data Science · Washington University in St. Louis, Department of Statistics and Data Science · Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
QLIF-CAST: Quantum Leaky-Integrate-and-Fire for Time-Series Weather Forecasting
May 18, 2026Alberto Marchisio, Aayan Ebrahim, Nouhaila Innan +2Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML
eBrain Lab, Division of Engineering, New York University Abu Dhabi, PO Box 129188, Abu Dhabi, UAE · Center for Quantum and Topological Systems, NYUAD Research Institute, New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE
Beyond Linear Superposition: Discovering Climate Features in AI Weather Models with KAN-SAE
May 17, 2026Minjong CheonTransformer Interpretability Climate Science
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Sejong University
SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland
May 15, 2026Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato +5Precipitation Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Swiss Data Science Center, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland · Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland · Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland +1
GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment
May 14, 2026Adis AlihodžićConvolutional LSTM Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions
May 14, 2026Ayumu Ueyama, Kazuhiko Kawamoto, Hiroshi KeraPrecipitation Forecasting Diffusion Model Guidance
Chiba University · National Institute of Informatics
PACT: Peak-Aware Cross-Attention Graph Transformers for Efficient Storm-Surge Emulation
May 9, 2026Zesheng Liu, Doyup Kwon, Ning Lin +1PDE Surrogate Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Lehigh University · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University
WeatherSyn: An Instruction Tuning MLLM For Weather Forecasting Report Generation
May 8, 2026Zinan Zheng, Yang Liu, Nuo Chen +3Multimodal Large Language Models Weather Forecasting
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · HY Founda- tion Model Team, Tencent +2
Dual-Scale Temporal Fusion Reveals Structured Predictability in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Temperature Prediction
May 7, 2026Elnaz Bashir, Jiali Wang, Lin YanTime Series Forecasting Multi-Scale Feature Fusion
Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA · Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA
Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model
May 7, 2026Junchao Gong, Kaiyi Xu, Wangxu Wei +22World Model Learning Weather Forecasting
School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China. · School of Information Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui, China. · State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. +5
Two Hebrew folk meteorological proverbs tested: rainfall on Rosh Chodesh and Shabbat Mevarechim as predictors of monthly precipitation (Israel, 1950-2024)
May 6, 2026Abraham Itzhak WeinbergPrecipitation Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
AI-WEINBERG, AI Experts [physics.ao-ph]
Extreme Weather Bench: A framework and benchmark for evaluation of high-impact weather
May 1, 2026Amy McGovern, Taylor Mandelbaum, Daniel Rothenberg +6Forecasting Benchmarks Weather Forecasting
Brightband, San Francisco, CA, USA. · School of Meteorology and School of Computer Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, 73072, OK, USA. · Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. +5
Federated Weather Modeling on Sensor Data
May 1, 2026Shengchao Chen, Guodong LongSpatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting
Australian AI Institute, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Technology Sydney, Australia
PINN-Cast: Exploring the Role of Continuous-Depth NODE in Transformers and Physics Informed Loss as Soft Physical Constraints in Short-term Weather Forecasting
Apr 30, 2026Hira Saleem, Flora Salim, Cormac PurcellTransformer Physics-Informed ML
University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

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A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia, Nick P. Bassill+1

Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY, USA · University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA · State Weather Risk Communication Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY, USA

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Recurrent Transformers Weather Forecasting

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Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena. Previous work demonstrated that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can successfully predict forecast errors in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using mesonet observations, but we believe performance degradation is linked to periods of complex vertical atmospheric evolution. To address this limitation, we develop a hybrid LSTM-Vision Transformer (LSTM-ViT) framework that combines temporal sequence learning from surface observations with atmospheric profiles from the New York State Mesonet profiler network. The LSTM-ViT framework is trained to predict HRRR hourly precipitation, 10 m wind speed, and 2 m temperature forecast errors at individual mesonet stations. Across all three predictors, incorporation of profiler-derived atmospheric structure improves forecast error prediction skill relative to the baseline LSTM architecture, with the largest gains occurring at shorter forecast lead times and during periods of enhanced PBL activity. Improvements are particularly pronounced for precipitation forecast error, where the LSTM-ViT framework achieves approximately a twofold increase in predictive skill relative to the baseline LSTM while better capturing convectively driven error evolution and reducing degradation associated with PBL processes. These results demonstrate that combining temporal sequence learning with vertically informed attention mechanisms provides a physically meaningful pathway for improving forecast error prediction in operational NWP systems. Our research offers forecasters enhanced guidance regarding model bias and forecast confidence.

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Latest papers 102