Causal

Uncovering the causal mechanisms of complex real-world systems remains a significant challenge, as these systems often entail high data collection costs and involve unknown interventions. We introduce MetaCaDI, the first framework to cast the identification of unknown interventions as a meta-learning problem, explicitly leveraging a jointly learned causal graph. MetaCaDI is a Bayesian framework that learns a shared causal structure across multiple environments and is optimized to rapidly adapt to new, few-shot intervention target identification tasks. A key innovation is our model's analytical adaptation, which uses a closed-form solution to bypass expensive and potentially unstable gradient-based bilevel optimization. Extensive experiments on synthetic and complex gene expression data demonstrate that MetaCaDI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. It excels at identifying intervention targets from as few as 3 samples - where existing methods collapse to random chance - while robustly recovering the shared causal graph, proving its effectiveness in data-scarce scenarios.

We treat the internals of generative models as mechanistic objects rather than black boxes. We introduce \textbf{Attribution Graphs} (AGs), which extend GradCAM++ to circuit-level representations, and \textbf{Causal Probing}, a do-calculus intervention method for identifying causal latent structures, enabling detection and correction of spurious correlations, demographic biases, and misaligned decision circuits during training. We further propose the \textbf{Cognitive Alignment Score (CAS)}, quantifying agreement between model-internal representations and human concepts, a \textbf{saliency-first privacy mechanism} sharing only thresholded attribution nodes, a bias-aware regularizer aligning subgroup statistics, and a Reveal-to-Revise loop integrating attribution signals into parameter updates without separate fine-tuning. Evaluated on CelebA, FairFace, Jigsaw, and HateXplain, our method achieves \textbf{94.1%} accuracy, \textbf{92.3%} macro F1, \textbf{79.4%} IoU-XAI, and \textbf{12.7} FID at 72--76% adversarial robustness, while reducing subgroup disparity $Δ_{\mathrm{bias}}$ by \textbf{41%}, demonstrating that mechanistic interpretability, fairness, and generative performance can be jointly optimized.

Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate standard no-interference assumptions. While existing methods typically address one by assuming away the other, we show they are deeply connected: interference reveals structure in the latent confounder. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Spatial Deconfounder, a two-stage method that reconstructs a substitute confounder from local treatment vectors using a conditional variational autoencoder (C-VAE) with a spatial prior, then estimates causal effects with a flexible outcome model. We show that this enables nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions--without multiple treatment types or a known latent-field model. Empirically, we extend SpaCE, a benchmark suite for spatial confounding, to include treatment interference, and show that the Spatial Deconfounder consistently improves effect estimation across real-world environmental health and social science datasets. By turning local interference into a multi-cause proxy for latent spatial confounding, our framework advances robust causal inference for spatial data.

We study the propagation of outliers in cyclic causal graphs with linear structural equations, tracing them back to one or several "root cause" nodes. We show that it is possible to identify a short list of potential root causes provided that the perturbation is sufficiently strong and propagates according to the same structural equations as in the normal mode. This shortlist consists of the true root causes together with those of its parents lying on a cycle with the root cause. Notably, our method does not require prior knowledge of the causal graph and yields encouraging results on simulated data and real data from biology and cloud computing.

In this work, we establish the sufficient conditions under which nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) recovers ground-truth latent factors up to an affine transformation. By transporting the analysis from the observation space to the source space, we extend classical statistical results on orthogonal polynomial expansions of bivariate distributions to representation learning, proving affine identifiability under specific distributional priors. We formally demonstrate that whitening is strictly necessary to ensure the boundedness and well-conditioning of the learned mappings. Furthermore, we bridge the gap between theory and practice by proving that ridge-regularized empirical CCA converges to its population counterpart in the finite-sample regime. Finally, our findings provide a rigorous theoretical foundation explaining the empirical success of recent correlation-based non-contrastive learning methods. Experiments on synthetic and rendered image datasets, alongside systematic ablations, validate the predicted recovery behavior and illustrate the failure modes that arise when the assumptions are violated.

We study multivariate linear regression under Gaussian covariates in two settings, where data may be erased or corrupted by an adversary under a coordinate-wise budget. In the incomplete data setting, an adversary may inspect the dataset and delete entries in up to an $η$-fraction of samples per coordinate; a strong form of the Missing Not At Random model. In the corrupted data setting, the adversary instead replaces values arbitrarily, and the corruption locations are unknown to the learner. Despite substantial work on missing data, linear regression under such adversarial missingness remains poorly understood, even information-theoretically. Unlike the clean setting, where estimation error vanishes with more samples, here the optimal error remains a positive function of the problem parameters. Our main contribution is to characterize this error up to constant factors across essentially the entire parameter range. Specifically, we establish novel information-theoretic lower bounds on the achievable error that match the error of (computationally efficient) algorithms. A key implication is that, perhaps surprisingly, the optimal error in the missing data setting matches that in the corruption setting-so knowing the corruption locations offers no general advantage.

Existing Causal-Why Video Question Answering (VideoQA) models often struggle with higher-order reasoning, relying on opaque, monolithic pipelines that entangle video understanding, causal inference, and answer generation. These black-box approaches offer limited interpretability and tend to depend on shallow heuristics. We propose a novel, modular paradigm that explicitly decouples causal reasoning from answer generation, introducing natural language causal chains as interpretable intermediate representations. Inspired by human cognitive models, these structured cause-effect sequences bridge low-level video content with high-level causal reasoning, enabling transparent and logically coherent inference. Our two-stage architecture comprises a Causal Chain Extractor (CCE) that generates causal chains from video-question pairs, and a Causal Chain-Driven Answerer (CCDA) that derives answers grounded in these chains. To address the lack of annotated reasoning traces, we introduce a scalable method for generating accurate causal chains from existing datasets. We construct human verified causal chains for 46K samples. We also propose CauCo, a new evaluation metric for causality-oriented captioning. Experiments on three large-scale benchmarks demonstrate that our approach not only outperforms state-of-the-art models, but also yields substantial gains in explainability, user trust, and generalization -- positioning the CCE as a reusable causal reasoning engine across diverse domains. Project page: https://paritoshparmar.github.io/chainreaction/

Semi-supervised domain adaptation (SSDA) seeks to achieve accurate predictions in a target domain with limited labeled target data by exploiting abundant source and unlabeled target data. We study this problem under structural causal models (SCMs), which provide a statistical framework to describe distribution shifts between source and target domains as interventions in the data-generating process rather than ad hoc changes in model parameters. The central phenomenon is that, under low-dimensional interventions, source and unlabeled target data can help identify the high-dimensional shared structure, leaving only a low-dimensional target-specific correction to be learned from limited labeled target data. We formalize this principle for three canonical intervention models and propose the corresponding SSDA methods FT-DIP, FT-OLS-Src and FT-CIP. Under each intervention model, we demonstrate how extending an unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) method to SSDA can achieve minimax-optimal target performance with limited target labels, with the labeled-target sample complexity scaling with the intervention dimension rather than the ambient dimension. When the distribution shift is underspecified, we propose the Multi-Adaptive-Start Fine-Tuning (MASFT) algorithm, which fine-tunes from multiple adaptive starts and selects among them using a small target validation set, incurring only logarithmic overhead in the number of starts. We validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods through simulated and real data experiments.

Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions. A central challenge in this setting is predicting the response at a new covariate value. Most of the existing literature has focused either on point prediction or on interval prediction based on asymptotic approximations. We develop conformal prediction intervals for bounded outcomes within the framework of transformation regression models, encompassing widely used models such as beta regression and logit-normal regression. We construct non-conformity scores based on model-aligned residuals and identify a quantile-residual score that is particularly well suited to bounded outcomes, bridging normalized conformal prediction and distributional conformal prediction. This score accounts for both the heteroscedasticity inherent in such data and the asymmetry that emerges near the boundaries of the response space. We establish marginal validity and asymptotic conditional validity for both full and split conformal prediction, holding under model misspecification. A comprehensive simulation study confirms that both methods empirically attain valid finite-sample coverage, including cases under model misspecification. A real-data application demonstrates their practical performance against bootstrap-based alternatives.

We propose Path Signatures Logistic Regression (PSLR), a semi-parametric framework for classifying vector-valued functional data with scalar covariates. Classical functional logistic regression models rely on linear assumptions and fixed basis expansions, which limit flexibility and degrade performance under irregular sampling. PSLR leverages the well-established properties of path signatures - basis-free representation, cross-channel dependency capture, and robustness to sampling irregularity - as an enabling tool. The key novelty, however, lies in two distinctive contributions: (i) a semi-parametric additive structure that preserves interpretable linear effects for scalar covariates, and (ii) a fully data-driven procedure for adaptively selecting the signature truncation order via a penalized empirical risk criterion. This selection mechanism is supported by rigorous non-asymptotic guarantees, including the existence of an optimal truncation order, its consistent estimation from finite samples, convergence rates for the classifier risk, a finite computable search bound, and an error propagation framework that formally quantifies PSLR's robustness under irregular sampling. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that PSLR with adaptive order selection consistently outperforms traditional functional classifiers and fixed-order signature baselines in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability. Our results highlight the practical and theoretical value of integrating rough path theory with adaptive model complexity control.

Disentangled representations separate factors that are shared across conditions from those that are condition-specific. Such separation is needed for generalization to new domains, treatments, patients, or species. A dominant line of work pursues this goal through variational formulations. While these approaches achieve partial disentanglement, they often exhibit three common limitations: they either do not remove all condition-specific information from the condition-specific representation, allow the condition-specific representation to become uninformative, or impose independence assumptions that do not reflect the underlying generative process. In this work, we introduce DisCoVR, a variational framework that addresses these limitations. Its objective is aligned with the probabilistic structure of the data-generating process, and includes an adversarial term that prevents condition-specific information from being encoded in the condition-specific representation.DisCoVR reconstructs the data from both shared and condition-specific representations, ensuring that each remains informative, and uses a structured prior that further reinforces the informativeness of both representations. We show that across synthetic, image, and single-cell RNA-sequencing datasets, DisCoVR achieves stronger disentanglement compared to previous approaches.

As Large Language Model (LLM) agents become more widespread, associated misalignment risks increase. While prior research has studied agents' ability to produce harmful outputs or follow malicious instructions, it remains unclear how likely agents are to spontaneously pursue unintended goals in realistic deployments. In this work, we approach misalignment as a conflict between the internal goals pursued by the model and the goals intended by its deployer. We introduce a misalignment propensity benchmark, \textsc{AgentMisalignment}, a benchmark suite designed to evaluate the propensity of LLM agents to misalign in realistic scenarios. Evaluations cover behaviours such as avoiding oversight, resisting shutdown, sandbagging, and power-seeking. Testing frontier models, we find that more capable agents tend to exhibit higher misalignment on average. We also systematically vary agent personalities through different system prompts and observe that persona characteristics can strongly and unpredictably influence misalignment, sometimes more than the choice of model itself. Our results reveal the limitations of current alignment methods for autonomous LLM agents and underscore the need to rethink misalignment in realistic deployment settings.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Data fusion, the process of combining observational and experimental data, can enable the identification of causal effects that would otherwise remain non-identifiable. Although identification algorithms have been developed for specific scenarios, do-calculus remains the only general-purpose tool for causal data fusion, particularly when variables are present in some data sources but not others. However, approaches based on do-calculus may encounter computational challenges as the number of variables increases and the causal graph grows in complexity. Consequently, there exists a need to reduce the size of such models while preserving the essential features. For this purpose, we propose pruning (removing unnecessary variables) and clustering (combining variables) as preprocessing operations for causal data fusion. We generalize earlier results on a single data source and derive conditions for applying pruning and clustering in the case of multiple data sources. We give sufficient conditions for inferring the identifiability or non-identifiability of a causal effect in a larger graph based on a smaller graph and show how to obtain the corresponding identifying functional for identifiable causal effects. Examples from epidemiology and social science demonstrate the use of the results.

Innovations in digital intelligence are transforming robotic surgery with more informed decision-making. Real-time awareness of surgical instrument presence and actions (e.g., cutting tissue) is essential for such systems. Yet, despite decades of research, most machine learning models for this task are trained on small datasets and still struggle to generalize. Recently, vision-Language Models (VLMs) have brought transformative advances in reasoning across visual and textual modalities. Their unprecedented generalization capabilities suggest great potential for advancing intelligent robotic surgery. However, surgical VLMs remain under-explored, and existing models show limited performance, highlighting the need for benchmark studies to assess their capabilities and limitations and to inform future development. To this end, we benchmark the zero-shot performance of several advanced VLMs on two public robotic-assisted laparoscopic datasets for instrument and action classification. Beyond standard evaluation, we integrate explainable AI to visualize VLM attention and uncover causal explanations behind their predictions. This provides a previously underexplored perspective in this field for evaluating the reliability of model predictions. We also propose several explainability analysis-based metrics to complement standard evaluations. Our analysis reveals that surgical VLMs, despite domain-specific training, often rely on weak contextual cues rather than clinically relevant visual evidence, highlighting the need for stronger visual and reasoning supervision in surgical applications.

This paper develops a formal account of causal explanation, grounded in a theory of conversational pragmatics, and inspired by the interventionist idea that explanation is about asking and answering what-if-things-had-been-different questions. We illustrate the fruitfulness of the account, relative to previous accounts, by showing that widely recognised explanatory virtues emerge naturally, as do subtle empirical patterns concerning the impact of norms on causal judgments. This shows the value of a communication-first approach to explanation: getting clear on explanation's communicative dimension is an important prerequisite for philosophical work on explanation. The result is a simple but powerful framework for incorporating insights from the cognitive sciences into philosophical work on explanation, which will be useful for philosophers or cognitive scientists interested in explanation.

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recent research has extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but many studies neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses a prevalent challenge in many fair machine learning research, which typically assumes independent and identically distributed (IID) data, from the causal perspective. Specifically, this work targets the circumstance where nodes with different neighborhood structures follow different causal mechanisms, violating the invariance assumptions required for classical structural causal models and do-calculus. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and develop a Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions for causally fair node classification. We establish theoretical soundness under two conditions: Decomposability and Graph Independence. These conditions formalize when causal mechanism heterogeneity can be overcome by constructing a structural representation that restores invariance and facilitates the computation of interventional distributions using do-calculus in non-IID settings. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. Our findings demonstrate the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications and motivate future work on relaxing the classic assumptions in algorithmic fairness.

In the context of multivariate nonparametric regression with missing covariates, we propose Pattern Embedded Neural Networks (PENNs), which can be applied in conjunction with any existing imputation technique. In addition to a neural network trained on the imputed data, PENNs pass the vectors of observation indicators through a second neural network to provide a compact representation. The outputs are then combined in a third neural network to produce final predictions. Our main theoretical result exploits an assumption that the observation patterns can be partitioned into cells on which the Bayes regression function behaves similarly, and belongs to a compositional Hölder class. It provides a finite-sample excess risk bound that holds for an arbitrary missingness mechanism, and in combination with a complementary minimax lower bound, demonstrates that our PENN estimator attains in typical cases the minimax rate of convergence as if the cells of the partition were known in advance, up to a poly-logarithmic factor in the sample size. Numerical experiments on simulated, semi-synthetic and real data confirm that the PENN estimator consistently improves, often dramatically, on standard neural networks without pattern embedding. Code to reproduce our experiments, as well as a tutorial on how to apply our method, is publicly available.

Conditional independence testing is a critical component of feature screening, invariant statistical models, and causal discovery. Many of these algorithms rely on the sequential application of conditional independence tests, and their stability hinges on how their outcomes interact. We study this meta-dependence'' between conditional independence properties using the following geometric intuition: satisfying each conditional independence property constrains the space of possible joint distributions to a manifold. The meta-dependence'' of multiple conditional independences in a probability distribution is informed by its position relative to these manifolds. We provide a simple-to-compute measure of this meta-dependence using moment projections, with a closed-form expression for multivariate Gaussian distributions, and consolidate our findings empirically using both synthetic and real-world data. Our measure of meta-dependence does not rely on graphical properties of the distribution and can be computed directly from summary statistics such as a covariance matrix, allowing for various applications. We demonstrate one use case of meta-dependence, using a simple redundancy metric to tune significance thresholds and improve causal discovery.

Causal discovery is a difficult problem that typically relies on strong assumptions on the data-generating model, such as non-Gaussianity. In practice, many modern applications provide multiple related views of the same system, which has rarely been considered for causal discovery. Here, we leverage this multi-view structure to achieve causal discovery with weak assumptions. We propose a multi-view linear Structural Equation Model (SEM) that extends the well-known framework of non-Gaussian disturbances by alternatively leveraging correlation over views. We prove the identifiability of the model for acyclic SEMs. Subsequently, we propose several multi-view causal discovery algorithms, inspired by single-view algorithms (DirectLiNGAM, PairwiseLiNGAM, and ICA-LiNGAM). The new methods are validated through simulations and applications on neuroimaging data, where they enable the estimation of causal graphs between brain regions.

We evaluate methods for causal representation learning (CRL) on a simple, real-world system that satisfies the basic problem setup of CRL. The system consists of a controlled optical experiment producing a variety of measurements where the underlying causal factors---the control inputs to the experiment---are known, providing a ground truth. We select methods representative of different approaches to CRL and find that they all fail to consistently recover the underlying causal factors. To understand the failure modes of the evaluated algorithms, we perform an ablation on the data by substituting the real data-generating process with a simpler synthetic equivalent. The results reveal a reproducibility problem, as most methods already fail on this synthetic ablation despite its simple data-generating process. Additionally, we observe that common assumptions on the mixing function are crucial for the performance of some of the methods but do not hold in the real data. Our efforts highlight the contrast between the theoretical promise of the state of the art and the challenges in its application. We hope the benchmark serves as a simple, real-world sanity check to further develop and validate methodol- ogy, bridging the gap towards CRL methods that work in practice.

Dependent censoring occurs when the event time and censoring time are not conditionally independent given the observed covariates. This complicates survival model evaluation because widely used metrics, such as the Brier score, typically handle right-censoring using inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW). Unfortunately, IPCW is valid only when the estimated censoring distribution is independent of the event time. We propose a dependent Brier score based on an Archimedean copula and the Copula-Graphic estimator, and establish consistency and asymptotic normality of its margin-time estimator. To evaluate the metric, we introduce a semi-synthetic framework that creates realistic dependent censoring while preserving the original covariate structure and known event times. Across 12 datasets, the proposed metric reduces estimation error by 12-16% on average relative to IPCW. Source code is available at https://github.com/thecml/DependentEVAL.

For two causal structures with the same set of visible variables, one is said to observationally dominate the other if the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the first contains the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the second. Knowing such dominance relations is useful for adjudicating between these structures given observational data. Here, we consider the problem of determining the partial order of equivalence classes of causal structures with latent variables relative to observational dominance. We provide a complete characterization of the dominance order in the case of three visible variables, and a partial characterization in the case of four visible variables. Our techniques also help to identify which observational equivalence classes have a set of realizable distributions that is characterized by nontrivial inequality constraints, analogous to Bell inequalities and instrumental inequalities. We find evidence that as one increases the number of visible variables, the equivalence classes satisfying nontrivial inequality constraints become ubiquitous. (Because such classes are the ones for which there can be a difference in the distributions that are quantumly and classically realizable, this implies that the potential for quantum-classical gaps is also ubiquitous.) Furthermore, we find evidence that constraint-based causal discovery algorithms that rely solely on conditional independence constraints have a significantly weaker distinguishing power among observational equivalence classes than algorithms that go beyond these (i.e., algorithms that also leverage nested Markov constraints and inequality constraints).

Causal knowledge can be used to support decision-making problems. This has been recognized in the causal bandits literature, where a causal (multi-armed) bandit is characterized by a causal graphical model and a target variable. The arms are then interventions on the causal model, and rewards are samples of the target variable. Causal bandits were originally studied with a focus on hard interventions. We focus instead on cases where the arms are conditional interventions, which more accurately model many real-world decision-making problems by allowing the value of the intervened variable to be chosen based on the observed values of other variables. This paper presents a graphical characterization of the minimal set of nodes guaranteed to contain the optimal conditional intervention, which maximizes the expected reward. We then propose an efficient algorithm with a time complexity of $O(|V| + |E|)$ to identify this minimal set of nodes. We prove that the graphical characterization and the proposed algorithm are correct. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that our algorithm significantly prunes the search space and substantially accelerates convergence rates when integrated into standard multi-armed bandit algorithms.

Radiotherapy (RT) planning is complex, subjective, and time-intensive. Advances with artificial intelligence (AI) promise to improve its precision and efficiency, but progress is often limited by the scarcity of large, standardized datasets. To address this, we introduce the Automated Iterative RT Planning (AIRTP) system, a scalable solution for generating high-quality treatment plans. This scalable solution is designed to generate substantial volumes of consistently high-quality treatment plans, overcoming a key obstacle in the advancement of AI-driven RT planning. Our AIRTP pipeline adheres to clinical guidelines and automates essential steps, including organ-at-risk (OAR) contouring, helper structure creation, beam setup, optimization, and plan quality improvement, using AI integrated with RT planning software like Varian Eclipse. Furthermore, a novel approach for determining optimization parameters to reproduce 3D dose distributions, i.e. a method to convert dose predictions to deliverable treatment plans constrained by machine limitations is proposed. A comparative analysis of plan quality reveals that our automated pipeline produces treatment plans of quality comparable to those generated manually, which traditionally require several hours of labor per plan. Committed to public research, the first data release of our AIRTP pipeline includes nine cohorts covering head-and-neck and lung cancer sites to support an AAPM 2025 challenge. To our best knowledge, this dataset features more than 10 times number of plans compared to the largest existing well-curated public dataset. Repo: https://github.com/RiqiangGao/GDP-HMM_AAPMChallenge.

Existing algorithms for explaining the output of image classifiers use different definitions of explanations and a variety of techniques to find them. However, none of the existing tools use a principled approach based on formal definitions of cause and explanation. In this paper we present a novel black-box approach to computing explanations grounded in the theory of actual causality. We prove relevant theoretical results and present an algorithm for computing approximate explanations based on these definitions. We prove termination of our algorithm and discuss its complexity and the amount of approximation compared to the precise definition. We implemented the framework in a tool ReX and we present experimental results and a comparison with state-of-the-art tools. We demonstrate that ReX is the most efficient black-box tool and produces the smallest explanations, in addition to outperforming other black-box tools on standard quality measures.

We propose the use of latent space generative world models to address the covariate shift problem in autonomous driving. A world model is a neural network capable of predicting an agent's next state given past states and actions. By leveraging a world model during training, the driving policy effectively mitigates covariate shift without requiring an excessive amount of training data. During end-to-end training, our policy learns how to recover from errors by aligning with states observed in human demonstrations, so that at runtime it can recover from perturbations outside the training distribution. Additionally, we introduce a novel transformer-based perception encoder that employs multi-view cross-attention and a learned scene query. We present qualitative and quantitative results, demonstrating significant improvements upon prior state of the art in closed-loop testing in the CARLA simulator, as well as showing the ability to handle perturbations in both CARLA and NVIDIA's DRIVE Sim.

Large language models (LLMs) have developed rapidly, and their reasoning capabilities have become a hot research topic. However, there is still limited exploration of abductive reasoning. The multi-perspective and multi-level of causes is one of the core challenges of abductive reasoning, which cannot be solved well by existing methods. We construct a specialized dataset named DeepAbduction, which is designed for tracing the causes of pollution and disease, addressing the lack of datasets in this field. We propose \textsc{Inverse-Forward Abductive Reasoning} (IFAR) framework for LLMs multi-perspective and multi-level abductive reasoning. IFAR is zero-shot and combines generalized backward reasoning with relation-by-relation forward verification. Experimental results show that IFAR achieves an improvement of approximately 40% in the F1 score compared to other methods under mainstream LLMs, while maintaining a balance between recall and precision. Furthermore, IFAR enhances the performance of non-reasoning LLMs to surpass LLMs which have been trained for reasoning, and remains effective when applied to the latter. Code will be released after the acceptance of our work.

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among time-varying variables. While this notion gains heightened importance during extreme and highly volatile periods, state-of-the-art methods primarily focus on causality within the body of the distribution, often overlooking causal mechanisms that manifest only during extreme events. Our framework is designed to infer causality mainly from extreme events by leveraging the causal tail coefficient. We establish equivalences between causality in extremes and other causal concepts, including (classical) Granger causality, Sims causality, and structural causality. We prove other key properties of Granger causality in extremes and show that the framework is especially helpful under the presence of hidden confounders. We also propose a novel inference method for detecting the presence of Granger causality in extremes from data. Our method is model-free, can handle non-linear and high-dimensional time series, outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in all considered setups, both in performance and speed, and was found to uncover coherent effects when applied to financial and extreme weather observations.

We study the problem of restricting a Markov equivalence class of maximal ancestral graphs (MAGs) to only those MAGs that contain certain edge marks, which we refer to as expert or orientation knowledge. Such a restriction of the Markov equivalence class can be uniquely represented by a restricted essential ancestral graph. Our contributions are several-fold. First, we prove certain properties for the entire Markov equivalence class including a conjecture from Ali et al. (2009). Second, we present several new sound graphical orientation rules for adding orientation knowledge to an essential ancestral graph. We also show that some orientation rules of Zhang (2008b) are not needed for restricting the Markov equivalence class with orientation knowledge. Third, we provide an algorithm for including this orientation knowledge and show that in certain settings the output of our algorithm is a restricted essential ancestral graph. Finally, outside of the specified settings, we provide an algorithm for checking whether a graph is a restricted essential graph and discuss its runtime. This work can be seen as a generalization of Meek (1995) to settings which allow for latent confounding.

This paper establishes the generalization error of pooled min-$\ell_2$-norm interpolation in transfer learning, where data from diverse distributions are available. Min-norm interpolators arise naturally as implicit regularized limits of modern machine learning algorithms. Prior work has characterized their out-of-distribution risk when samples from the test distribution are unavailable during training. In many applications, however, limited test samples may be available at training time, yet properties of min-norm interpolation in this regime remain poorly understood. We address this gap by characterizing the bias and variance of pooled min-$\ell_2$-norm interpolation under both covariate shift and model shift. Our results yield several important implications. In certain cases under model shift, we show that adding data always hurts when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. At higher SNR levels, transfer learning is beneficial provided the shift-to-signal ratio falls below a threshold that we characterize explicitly. Under covariate shift, we find that when the source sample size is small relative to the dimension, greater heterogeneity between domains reduces risk, and vice versa. While our model shift results are initially established for Gaussian designs, we extend them to more general designs through a universality argument. To illustrate the broader applicability of our technical tools beyond interpolation learning, we characterize the risk of a bias-corrected estimator that uses the pooled interpolator as an initialization and corrects the resulting bias with target data. On the technical side, we develop a novel anisotropic local law and a Lindeberg-swapping argument, yielding tools that may be of independent interest in random matrix theory and universality analysis. Finally, we supplement our theory with simulations demonstrating the finite-sample efficacy of our results.

Existing evaluations of tabular synthesis models rely primarily on low-order statistics and downstream task performance, leaving multivariate causal relationships that go beyond pairwise correlations largely unmeasured. We argue that a systematic evaluation on high-order structural information is a crucial first step in addressing this issue in tabular data synthesis. In this paper, we present high-order structural causal information as a natural form of prior knowledge and introduce a benchmark framework to evaluate tabular synthesis models. This framework allows us to generate benchmark datasets through a flexible range of data generation processes, allowing for the training of tabular synthesis models using these datasets for further evaluation. We propose multiple benchmark tasks, high-order metrics, and causal inference tasks as downstream tasks for evaluating the quality of synthetic data generated by the trained models. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the benchmark framework in evaluating the model's ability to capture high-order structural causal information. Furthermore, our benchmarking results provide an initial assessment of state-of-the-art tabular synthesis models. These results reveal significant gaps between ideal and actual performance and highlight how baseline methods differ. We position the framework as a controlled diagnostic benchmark for causal fidelity, complementing existing low-order and downstream evaluations. We open source the benchmark framework, including both code and data along with documentation, to support further research in this area.

The ability to understand causality significantly impacts the competence of large language models (LLMs) in output explanation and counterfactual reasoning, as causality reveals the underlying data distribution. However, the lack of a comprehensive benchmark currently limits the evaluation of LLMs' causal learning capabilities. To fill this gap, this paper develops CausalBN-Bench based on data from the causal research community, enabling comparative evaluations of LLMs against traditional causal learning algorithms. To provide a comprehensive investigation, we offer three tasks of varying difficulties, including correlation, causal skeleton, and causality identification. Evaluations of 19 leading LLMs reveal that, while closed-source LLMs show potential for simple causal relationships, they significantly lag behind traditional algorithms on larger-scale networks ($>50$ nodes). Specifically, LLMs struggle with collider structures but excel at chain structures, especially at long-chain causality analogous to Chain-of-Thought techniques. This supports the current prompt approaches while suggesting directions to enhance LLMs' causal reasoning capability. Furthermore, CausalBN-Bench incorporates background knowledge and training data into prompts to thoroughly unlock LLMs' text-comprehension ability during evaluation, whose findings indicate that, LLM understand causality through semantic associations with distinct entities, rather than directly from contextual information or numerical distributions.

Causal video question answering (QA) has garnered increasing interest, yet existing datasets often lack depth in causal reasoning. To address this gap, we capitalize on the unique properties of cartoons and construct CausalChaos!, a novel, challenging causal Why-QA dataset built upon the iconic "Tom and Jerry" cartoon series. Cartoons use the principles of animation that allow animators to create expressive, unambiguous causal relationships between events to form a coherent storyline. Utilizing these properties, along with thought-provoking questions and multi-level answers (answer and detailed causal explanation), our questions involve causal chains that interconnect multiple dynamic interactions between characters and visual scenes. These factors demand models to solve more challenging, yet well-defined causal relationships. We also introduce hard incorrect answer mining, including a causally confusing version that is even more challenging. While models perform well, there is much room for improvement, especially, on open-ended answers. We identify more advanced/explicit causal relationship modeling & joint modeling of vision and language as the immediate areas for future efforts to focus upon. Along with the other complementary datasets, our new challenging dataset will pave the way for these developments in the field. Project Page: https://github.com/LUNAProject22/CausalChaos

Causal discovery aims to learn causal structures up to certain symmetries. Diverse populations or changing environments give rise to heterogeneous data in the following sense: each population/environment is a ``source'' which idiosyncratically determines the forms of causal effects. From this perspective, the source is a latent common cause for every observed variable. While some methods for causal discovery can work around latent confounding in special cases, a global confounder poses a significant challenge. The only known ways to deal with latent global confounding involve making assumptions that limit structural equations and/or noise functions. We demonstrate that globally confounded causal structures can still be identified with arbitrary structural equations and noise functions, so long as the number of latent classes remains small relative to the size and sparsity of the underlying DAG. The approach relies on agglomerating variables into large-enough matrices of moments, whose ranks directly reveal graphical properties of the causal structure. We also provide a statistical test to test the rank of these matrices.

Given a high-dimensional covariate matrix and a response vector, ridge-regularized sparse linear regression selects a subset of features that explains the relationship between covariates and the response in an interpretable manner. To choose hyperparameters that control the sparsity level and amount of regularization, practitioners commonly use k-fold cross-validation. However, cross-validation substantially increases the computational cost of sparse regression as it requires solving many mixed-integer optimization problems (MIOs) for each hyperparameter combination. To address this computational burden, we derive computationally tractable relaxations of the k-fold cross-validation loss, facilitating hyperparameter selection while solving $50$--$80\%$ fewer MIOs in practice. Our computational results demonstrate, across eleven real-world UCI datasets, that exact MIO-based cross-validation can be competitive with mature software packages such as glmnet and L0Learn.

We study a class of reinforcement learning (RL) tasks where the objective of the agent is to accomplish temporally extended goals. In this setting, a common approach is to represent the tasks as deterministic finite automata (DFA) and integrate them into the state-space for RL algorithms. However, while these machines model the reward function, they often overlook the causal knowledge about the environment. To address this limitation, we propose the Temporal-Logic-based Causal Diagram (TL-CD) in RL, which captures the temporal causal relationships between different properties of the environment. We exploit the TL-CD to devise an RL algorithm in which an agent requires significantly less exploration of the environment. To this end, based on a TL-CD and a task DFA, we identify configurations where the agent can determine the expected rewards early during an exploration. Through a series of case studies, we demonstrate the benefits of using TL-CDs, particularly the faster convergence of the algorithm to an optimal policy due to reduced exploration of the environment.

Algorithmic recourse promises to help applicants rejected by automated systems by explaining the changes needed to secure acceptance. What incentive do decision-makers, such as banks and employers, have to offer recourse? We study this question in a screening model in which recourse is both productive and selective: completing recourse improves an applicant's value to the decision-maker, but applicants differ in their cost of completion. The optimal policy is a threshold rule: reject applicants with low scores, offer recourse to an intermediate range of scores, and accept applicants with high scores outright. Because the intermediate range spans the cutoff that would separate acceptance from rejection when recourse is not available, some marginal applicants gain a new path to acceptance, while others---who would have been accepted outright---must now clear a costly hurdle.

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we may be concerned that our training sample is biased in the sense that some groups (characterized by either observable or unobservable attributes) may be under- or over-represented relative to the general population; and in this setting empirical risk minimization over the training set may fail to yield rules that perform well at deployment. We propose a model of sampling bias called conditional $Γ$-biased sampling, where observed covariates can affect the probability of sample selection arbitrarily much but the amount of unexplained variation in the probability of sample selection is bounded by a constant factor. Applying the distributionally robust optimization framework, we propose a method for learning a decision rule that minimizes the worst-case risk incurred under a family of test distributions that can generate the training distribution under $Γ$-biased sampling. We apply a result of Rockafellar and Uryasev to show that this problem is equivalent to an augmented convex risk minimization problem. We give statistical guarantees for learning a model that is robust to sampling bias via the method of sieves, and propose a deep learning algorithm whose loss function captures our robust learning target. We empirically validate our proposed method in a case study on prediction of mental health scores from health survey data and a case study on ICU length of stay prediction.

In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal effects. For binary treatments, efficient estimators for the direct and indirect effects are presented by Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser (2012) based on the influence function of the parameter of interest. These estimators possess desirable properties such as multiple-robustness and asymptotic normality while allowing for slower than root-n rates of convergence for the nuisance parameters. However, in settings involving continuous treatments, these influence function-based estimators are not readily applicable without making strong parametric assumptions. In this work, utilizing a kernel smoothing approach, we propose an estimator suitable for settings with continuous treatments inspired by the influence function-based estimation strategy. Our proposed approach employs cross-fitting, relaxing the smoothness requirements on the nuisance functions and allowing them to be estimated at slower rates than the target parameter. Additionally, similar to influence function-based estimators, our proposed estimator is multiply robust and asymptotically normal, allowing for inference in settings where parametric assumptions may not be justified.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate text that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as medication adherence in patient messaging and conversion rates in content generation. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering, logistical, and ethical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. In simulation experiments, DeconfoundLM more accurately recovers causal relationships and mitigates failure modes of methods that assume counterfactual invariance, achieving over 16% higher objective score than ODIN and other baselines, when entangled confounding is present. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

AI systems increasingly operate between flexible input representations and formal objects used by downstream tools. A key challenge is recognizing when an unfamiliar formulation denotes a known formal object. We study this challenge through theorem recognition: given an equivalence-preserving transformation of a theorem condition, a model must recover the theorem identity associated with the standard statement. We introduce TREAT, a benchmark for evaluating whether large language models can recover known theorem identities from equivalence-preserving formula-level transformations. Rather than paraphrasing theorem text, TREAT changes the mathematical form of theorem conditions themselves, expressing known results through residual equations, witness statements, optimization identities, set relations, operator forms, and proof-intermediate characterizations. Starting from scraped theorem pages, we filter for entries with usable mathematical expression forms, extract canonical theorem conditions, and generate transformed variants with recorded assumptions and inverse mappings. The final corpus contains 737 theorem identities and 29,480 transformed rows. On a test panel, the best model retrieves the correct theorem identity in only 60.73% of cases. Other systems reveal different failure modes, including abstention, wrong detection, and malformed outputs. These suggest that theorem knowledge can be fragile under equivalent changes in representation. TREAT therefore provides a controlled testbed for evaluating representation-robust access to formal knowledge, with broader relevance to domains that require stable target objects, explicit equivalence relations, validation procedures, and auditable scoring.

Statistical fairness metrics in AI-driven credit decisions conflate two causally distinct mechanisms: discrimination operating directly from a protected attribute to a credit outcome, and structural inequality propagating through legitimate financial features. We formalise this distinction using Pearl's framework of natural direct and indirect effects applied to the credit decision setting. Our primary theoretical contribution is an identification strategy for natural direct and indirect effects under treatment-induced confounding -- the prevalent setting in which protected attributes causally affect both financial mediators and the final decision, violating standard sequential ignorability. We show that interventional direct and indirect effects (IDE/IIE) are identified under the weaker Modified Sequential Ignorability assumption, and prove that IDE/IIE provide conservative bounds on the unidentified natural effects under monotone indirect treatment response. We propose a doubly-robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) estimator for IDE/IIE with semiparametric efficiency properties, implemented via cross-fitting. An E-value sensitivity analysis addresses residual confounding on the direct pathway. Empirical evaluation on 89,465 real HMDA conventional purchase mortgage applications from New York State (2022) demonstrates that approximately 77% of the observed 7.9 percentage-point racial denial disparity operates through financial mediators shaped by structural inequality, while the remaining 23% constitutes a conservative lower bound on direct discrimination. The open-source CausalFair Python package implements the full pipeline for deployment at resource-constrained financial institutions.

We propose a generalization of the synthetic control methods to the setting with dynamic treatment effects, in which each unit receives multiple treatments sequentially, according to an adaptive policy that depends on a latent, endogenously time-varying confounding state. Under a low-rank latent factor model assumption, which admits linear time-varying and time-invariant dynamic triangular systems as special cases, we develop an identification strategy for any unit-specific mean outcome under any sequence of interventions. Our method, which we term synthetic blips, is a backward induction process in which the blip effect of a treatment at each period for a target unit is recursively expressed as a linear combination of the blip effects of other units that received the designated treatment, avoiding the combinatorial donor requirements of naive synthetic control extensions. We provide easy-to-implement estimation algorithms that yield consistent estimators. Using unique Korean firm-level panel data, we estimate individualized dynamic treatment effects and optimal allocation rules in the context of financial support for exporting firms.