Clinical Prediction

Latest papers 202

30 papers in the last four weeks, up 30% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare
May 13, 2026Rohith Reddy Bellibatlu, Manpreet Singh, Yash Jajoo +2Distribution Shift Robustness Healthcare
Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA. · Boston University, Boston, MA, USA. · New York University, New York, NY, USA. +2
Multitask Multimodal Fusion with Tabular Foundation Models for Peak and Durability Prediction of Pertussis Booster Response
May 13, 2026Divya SitaniMulti-Task Learning Clinical Prediction
Berlin, Germany
Training Large Language Models to Predict Clinical Events
May 12, 2026Benjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris SkotheimHealthcare Language Model Calibration
Lightning Rod Labs
EHR-RAGp: Prototype-Guided Retrieval of Longitudinal Electronic Health Records for Clinical Prediction Models
May 12, 2026Saeed Shurrab, Mariam Al-Omari, Dana El Samad +1Long-Context Modeling Clinical Prediction
New York University · New York University Abu Dhabi
From Token to Token Pair: Efficient Prompt Compression for Large Language Models in Clinical Prediction
May 12, 2026Mingcheng Zhu, Zhiyao Luo, Yu Liu +1LLM Compression Clinical Prediction
Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Rethinking external validation for the target population: Capturing patient-level similarity with a generative model
May 11, 2026Mohammad Azizmalayeri, Ameen Abu-Hanna, Saskia Houterman +2Clinical Prediction
on behalf of the NHR THI registration committee · Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Dept of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands +3
Predictive Radiomics for Evaluation of Cancer Immune SignaturE in Glioblastoma: the PRECISE-GBM study
May 11, 2026Prajwal Ghimire, Junjie Li, Liu Yaou +2Clinical Prediction Oncology
School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, UK · Department of Neurosurgery, King’s College Hospital, London, UK · Department of Neuroradiology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Beijing, China +1
Shapley Regression for Rare Disease Diagnosis Support: a case study on APDS
May 9, 2026Safa Alsaidi, Tomás Brogueira, Nizar Mahlaoui +5Rare Disease Diagnosis Clinical Decision Support
Inria, Inserm, UPC, HeKA U1346, Paris, France. · Técnico, University of Lisbon, INESC-ID, Lisbon, Portugal · Necker Enfants Malades University Hospital, AP-HP, Paris, France +2
SGC-RML: A reliable and interpretable longitudinal assessment for PD in real-world DNS
May 8, 2026Wenbin Wei, Ruixiang Gao, Suyuan Yao +3Selective Prediction Unified Multimodal Models
∗ Equal contribution. · † Corresponding author.
Correcting heterogeneous diagnostic bias when developing clinical prediction models using causal hidden Markov models
May 7, 2026Jose Benitez-Aurioles, Ricardo Silva, Brian McMillan +1Counterfactual Prediction Model Calibration
Division of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom · Department of Statistical Science, UCL, London, United Kingdom · Division of Population Health, Health Services Research & Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
Beyond Semantics: An Evidential Reasoning-Aware Multi-View Learning Framework for Trustworthy Mental Health Prediction
May 6, 2026Yucheng Ruan, Ling Huang, Qika Lin +2Evidential Deep Learning Uncertainty Quantification
Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Foundation Models to Unlock Real-World Evidence from Nationwide Medical Claims
May 4, 2026Fan Ma, Yuntian Liu, Xiang Lan +22Healthcare Time Series Forecasting
Department of Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA · Department of Medical, Surgical and Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Trieste, Trieste, Italy · Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Graduate Group, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA +6
Biological Spatial Priors Regularize Foundation Model Representations for Cross-Site MSI Generalization in Colorectal Cancer
May 4, 2026Dasari Naga RajuSpatial Generalization Pathology Foundation Models
Gradient Boosted Risk Scores
May 4, 2026Costa Georgantas, Jonas RichiardiInterpretable ML Clinical Prediction
†Department of Radiology, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Federated Semi-Supervised Graph Neural Networks with Prototype-Guided Pseudo-Labeling for Privacy-Preserving Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Prediction
May 3, 2026G. Victor DanielGraph Neural Networks Privacy-Preserving ML
School of Engineering, Anurag University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
Temporal Data Requirement for Predicting Unplanned Hospital Readmissions
May 1, 2026Ramin Mohammadi, Vahab vahdat, Sarthak Jain +3Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Prediction
Northeastern University, Boston, MA, US · Partners Healthcare Connected Health Innovation, Boston, MA, USA · MGH Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston, MA, USA +2
Multi-Level Narrative Evaluation Outperforms Lexical Features for Mental Health
Apr 30, 2026Yuxi Ma, Jieming Cui, Muyang Li +6Document Understanding Depression Detection
Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University · School of Psychological and Cognitive Sciences, Peking University · School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Peking University +3
Domain-Adapted Small Language Models for Reliable Clinical Triage
Apr 29, 2026Manar Aljohani, Brandon Ho, Kenneth McKinley +2Clinical Triage LLM Fine-Tuning
Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, US · Children’s National Hospital, Washington DC, USA
Entropy-Dominated Temporal Vocal Dynamics as Digital Biomarkers for Depression Detection
Apr 29, 2026Himadri S SamantaDepression Detection Mental Health
Independent Researcher, Austin, Texas, USA
MultiDx: A Multi-Source Knowledge Integration Framework towards Diagnostic Reasoning
Apr 27, 2026Yimin Deng, Zhenxi Lin, Yejing Wang +9Knowledge Augmentation for Language Models Medical Diagnosis
Xi’an Jiaotong University · City University of Hong Kong · Tencent Jarvis Lab +1
Impact of Age Specialized Models for Hypoglycemia Classification
Apr 26, 2026Beyza Cinar, Maria MaleshkovaType 1 Diabetes Time Series Classification
Data Engineering · Helmut Schmidt University · Germany
Multi-View Hierarchical Representation Learning of Fetal Hemodynamics for Maternal Hypertension Detection at the Edge
Apr 24, 2026Alireza Rafiei, Anahí Venzor Strader, Esteban Castro Aragón +6Hierarchical Representation Learning Clinical Prediction
Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA · Center for Indigenous Health Research, Wuqu’ Kawoq | Maya Health Alliance, Tecpán, Guatemala · Emory University & Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
A Specialized Importance-Aware Quantum Convolutional Neural Network with Ring-Topology (IA-QCNN) for MGMT Promoter Methylation Prediction in Glioblastoma
Apr 24, 2026Emine Akpinar, Murat OduncuogluQuantum Convolutional Neural Networks Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML
Department of Physics, Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
STEP-PD: Stage-Aware and Explainable Parkinson's Disease Severity Classification Using Multimodal Clinical Assessments
Apr 19, 2026Md Mezbahul Islam, John Michael Templeton, Christian Poellabauer +1Multimodal Classification Clinical Prediction
School of Computing & Information Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA · College of AI, Cybersecurity and Computing, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
Nationwide EHR-Based Chronic Rhinosinusitis Prediction Using Demographic-Stratified Models
Apr 16, 2026Sicong Chang, Yidan Shen, Justina Varghese +7Medical Diagnosis Clinical Prediction
Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Houston Houston, USA · Otolaryngology Houston Methodist Hospital Houston, USA · Information Science Technology, University of Houston & Otolaryngology, Houston Methodist Hospital Houston, USA
CSRA: Controlled Spectral Residual Augmentation for Robust Sepsis Prediction
Apr 16, 2026Honglin Guo, Rihao Chang, He Jiao +3Clinical Prediction Time Series Data Augmentation
Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China · Department of Emergency Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310016, China · Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin 300052, China
From Prediction to Intervention: The Evolution of AI in Biomedicine
Apr 14, 2026Andrew Feinberg, Aleksandr Sarachakov, Viktor Svekolkin +3Clinical Decision-Making Clinical Decision Support
BostonGene Corporation, Waltham, MA, USA
EviCare: Enhancing Diagnosis Prediction with Deep Model-Guided Evidence for In-Context Reasoning
Apr 12, 2026Hengyu Zhang, Xuyun Zhang, Pengxiang Zhan +5Clinical Prediction Medical LLMs
Macquarie University Sydney, Australia · Fuzhou University Fuzhou, China · Monash University Melbourne, Australia +2
Frailty Estimation in Elderly Oncology Patients Using Multimodal Wearable Data and Multi-Instance Learning
Apr 8, 2026Ioannis Kyprakis, Vasileios Skaramagkas, Georgia Karanasiou +10Clinical Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction
ECE Dept. HMU FORTH-ICS Heraklion, Greece · FORTH-BRI Ioannina, Greece · Univ. of Ioannina (Med.) Physiology Lab Ioannina, Greece +6
Resource-Conscious Modeling for Next- Day Discharge Prediction Using Clinical Notes
Apr 3, 2026Ha Na Cho, Sairam Sutari, Alexander Lopez +2Clinical Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction
University of California, Irvine, Donald Bren School of Information, Department of Informatics · University of California, Irvine, Department of Neurosurgery

May 13, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare

Rohith Reddy Bellibatlu, Manpreet Singh, Yash Jajoo, Shyamal Lakhanpal+1

Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA. · Boston University, Boston, MA, USA. · New York University, New York, NY, USA.+2

Distribution Shift Robustness Healthcare Clinical Decision Support Algorithmic Fairness AI Safety Evaluation Clinical Prediction

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.