Conformal Prediction

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55 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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Conformalized Neural Networks for Federated Uncertainty Quantification under Dual Heterogeneity
Feb 26, 2026Quang-Huy Nguyen, Jiaqi Wang, Wei-Shinn KuUncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Auburn University
LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees
Feb 25, 2026Vagner Santos, Victor Coscrato, Luben Cabezas +2Conformal Prediction Regression Prediction Intervals
Department of Statistics, Federal University of São Carlos, São Carlos, São Paulo, Brazil · Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, São Paulo, Brazil · Université Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LJK, France
Learning Complex Physical Regimes via Coverage-oriented Uncertainty Quantification: An application to the Critical Heat Flux
Feb 25, 2026Michele Cazzola, Alberto Ghione, Lucia Sargentini +2Uncertainty Quantification Heteroscedastic Regression
Université Paris Saclay, Cea, Service Thermo-hydraulique et Mécanique des Fluides (Stmf), Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France · Université Paris Saclay, Cea, Service de Génie Logiciel pour la Simulation (Sgls), Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France
ConformalHDC: Uncertainty-Aware Hyperdimensional Computing with Application to Neural Decoding
Feb 24, 2026Ziyi Liang, Hamed Poursiami, Zhishun Yang +5Hyperdimensional Computing Neuromorphic Computing
Department of Statistics, UC Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA · Center for the Neurobiology of Learning and Memory, UC Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA +2
Black-Box Reliability Certification for AI Agents via Self-Consistency Sampling and Conformal Calibration
Feb 24, 2026Charafeddine MouzouniAI Agent Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation
OPIT – Open Institute of Technology, and Cohorte AI, Paris, France.
DANCE: Doubly Adaptive Neighborhood Conformal Estimation
Feb 24, 2026Brandon R. Feng, Brian J. Reich, Daniel Beaglehole +7Conformal Prediction Classification
Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA · Amazon.com, Seattle, WA, USA · Department of Computer Science, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA +2
Drift Localization using Conformal Predictions
Feb 23, 2026Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Johannes Brinkrolf +1Concept Drift Distribution Shift Detection
Bielefeld University—Faculty of Technology Inspiration 1, 33619 Bielefeld—Germany
Softmax is not Enough (for Adaptive Conformal Classification)
Feb 23, 2026Navid Akhavan Attar, Hesam Asadollahzadeh, Ling Luo +1Conformal Prediction Uncertainty Quantification
School of Computing and Information Systems, Faculty of Engineering and IT The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Making Conformal Predictors Robust in Healthcare Settings: a Case Study on EEG Classification
Feb 23, 2026Arjun Chatterjee, Sayeed Sajjad Razin, John Wu +3Conformal Prediction Clinical Prediction
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA · PyHealth · Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Communication-Efficient Byzantine-Robust Federated Conformal Prediction via Partial Sharing
Feb 20, 2026Ehsan Lari, Reza Arablouei, Stefan WernerFederated Learning Aggregation Byzantine-Robust Federated Learning
Department of Electronic Systems, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway · Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Pullenvale, QLD 4069, Australia · Department of Information and Communications Engineering, Aalto University, 00076, Finland
Conformal Tradeoffs: Operational Profiles Beyond Coverage
Feb 20, 2026Petrus H. ZwartConformal Prediction Selective Prediction
Center for Advanced Mathematics in Energy Research Applications, Berkeley Synchrotron Infrared Structural Biology Program, & Molecular Biophysics and Integrated Bioimaging Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
LATA: Laplacian-Assisted Transductive Adaptation for Conformal Uncertainty in Medical VLMs
Feb 19, 2026Behzad Bozorgtabar, Dwarikanath Mahapatra, Sudipta Roy +3Conformal Prediction VLM Calibration
Aarhus University (A3 Lab) · Khalifa University · Jio Institute +2
Beyond Procedure: Substantive Fairness in Conformal Prediction
Feb 18, 2026Pengqi Liu, Zijun Yu, Mouloud Belbahri +3Algorithmic Fairness Conformal Prediction
McGill University, Montreal, Canada · TD Insurance, Montreal, Canada · UQAM, Montreal, Canada +1
Optimal training-conditional regret for online conformal prediction
Feb 18, 2026Jiadong Liang, Zhimei Ren, Yuxin ChenConformal Prediction Dynamic Regret Minimization
Department of Statistics and Data Science, the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Geometry-Aware Uncertainty Quantification via Conformal Prediction on Manifolds
Feb 17, 2026Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi, Ali BaheriUncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY, USA.
Coverage Guarantees for Pseudo-Calibrated Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift
Feb 16, 2026Farbod Siahkali, Ashwin Verma, Vijay GuptaConformal Prediction Distribution Shift Robustness
Elmore Family School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, at Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Tree-Based Machine Learning and Weather Ensembles
Feb 13, 2026Max Bruninx, Diederik van Binsbergen, Timothy Verstraeten +2Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees Ensemble Learning
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium · Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Conformal Prediction Sets for Instance Segmentation
Feb 10, 2026Kerri Lu, Dan M. Kluger, Stephen Bates +1Image Segmentation Instance Segmentation
Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA · Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA +1
Beyond Prediction-Set Size: Quantifying Conformal Uncertainty through Credal Geometry
Feb 2, 2026Siu Lun Chau, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Yusuf Sale +1Conformal Prediction Uncertainty Quantification
Epistemic Intelligence & Computation Lab, College of Computing & Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore · CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning; Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich, Germany +3
Approximate full conformal prediction in an RKHS
Jan 19, 2026Davidson Lova Razafindrakoto, Alain Celisse, Jérôme LacailleConfidence Region Estimation Conformal Prediction
Laboratoire SAMM Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne 90, rue de Tolbiac 75634 PARIS CEDEX 13, FRANCE · Safran Aircraft Engines Rond-Point René Ravaud, Réau, 77550 Moissy-Cramayel CEDEX, France
Multi-Distribution Robust Conformal Prediction
Jan 6, 2026Yuqi Yang, Ying JinDistribution Shift Robustness Conformal Prediction
Mathematics Department, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Beyond Uncertainty Sets: Leveraging Optimal Transport to Extend Conformal Predictive Distributions to Multivariate Settings
Nov 19, 2025Eugene NdiayeUncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Apple
Online conformal inference with retrospective adjustment for faster adaptation to distribution shift
Nov 6, 2025Jungbin Jun, Ilsang OhnDistribution Shift Robustness Conformal Prediction
Department of Statistics, Inha University
Adaptive Conformal Inference through the Lens of Blackwell Approachability
Oct 17, 2025Guillaume Principato, Gilles StoltzConformal Prediction Adaptive Conformal Inference
Universit´e Paris-Saclay, CNRS, Inria, Laboratoire de math´ematiques d’Orsay, 91405, Orsay, France · EDF R&D, Palaiseau, France · HEC Paris, Jouy-en-Josas, France
CPATTA: Conformal Supervision Allocation For Active Test-Time Adaptation
Sep 30, 2025Tingyu Shi, Fan Lyu, Haihua Zhu +2Distribution Shift Robustness Test-Time Adaptation
Computer Science and Engineering, University of California San Diego · New Laboratory of Pattern Recognition, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences · College of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering, Hunan University
Efficient Conformal Prediction for Regression Models under Label Noise
Sep 18, 2025Yahav Cohen, Jacob Goldberger, Tom TirerConformal Prediction Learning with Noisy Labels
Faculty of Engineering Bar-Ilan University Ramat Gan, Israel
PERRY: Policy Evaluation with Confidence Intervals using Auxiliary Data
Jul 26, 2025Aishwarya Mandyam, Jason Meng, Ge Gao +4Off-Policy Evaluation Healthcare
Stanford University · Gladstone Institutes · Stanford University[cs.LG]
Conformal and kNN Predictive Uncertainty Quantification Algorithms in Metric Spaces
Jul 21, 2025Gábor Lugosi, Marcos MatabuenaConformal Prediction k-Nearest Neighbors
Department of Economics and Business, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain · ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain · Barcelona Graduate School of Economics +3
Conformalized Regression for Continuous Bounded Outcomes
Jul 18, 2025Zhanli Wu, Fabrizio Leisen, F. Javier RubioConformal Prediction Regression Prediction Intervals
Department of Mathematics King’s College London London, UK · Department of Statistical Science University College London London, UK
Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty
May 25, 2025Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies +3Conformal Prediction Conformal Risk Control
1LMU Munich · 2MCML · 3CISPA +3

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Conformalized Neural Networks for Federated Uncertainty Quantification under Dual Heterogeneity

Quang-Huy Nguyen, Jiaqi Wang, Wei-Shinn Ku

Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Auburn University

Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction Weighted Conformal Prediction Heterogeneous Federated Learning

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Federated learning (FL) faces challenges in uncertainty quantification (UQ). Without reliable UQ, FL systems risk deploying overconfident models at under-resourced agents, leading to silent local failures despite seemingly satisfactory global performance. Existing federated UQ approaches often address data heterogeneity or model heterogeneity in isolation, overlooking their joint effect on coverage reliability across agents. Conformal prediction is a widely used distribution-free UQ framework, yet its applications in heterogeneous FL settings remains underexplored. We provide FedWQ-CP, a simple yet effective approach that balances empirical coverage performance with efficiency at both global and agent levels under the dual heterogeneity. FedWQ-CP performs agent-server calibration in a single communication round. On each agent, conformity scores are computed on calibration data and a local quantile threshold is derived. Each agent then transmits only its quantile threshold and calibration sample size to the server. The server simply aggregates these thresholds through a weighted average to produce a global threshold. Experimental results on seven public datasets for both classification and regression demonstrate that FedWQ-CP empirically maintains agent-wise and global coverage while producing the smallest prediction sets or intervals.