Electronic Health Records

Effective HFMD surveillance requires forecasts capturing both time-series patterns and contextual drivers such as school calendars, weather, and policy or surveillance reports. In clinical settings, forecasts must be trusted and actionable; thus, beyond point accuracy, decision-makers require concise, auditable explanations of why risk is expected to rise or fall. Classical models (e.g., ARIMA and Prophet) and foundation models (e.g., Chronos, Moirai, and TimesFM) treat external covariates as numerical inputs, lacking semantic reasoning to reflect epidemiological mechanisms or resolve conflicting signals. We propose a two-agent neuro-symbolic framework that decouples contextual interpretation from probabilistic forecasting. An LLM-based Event Interpreter ingests heterogeneous signals -- school schedules, weather summaries, government reports, and clinical guidelines -- and outputs a scalar transmission-impact signal. A Forecast Generator combines this signal with historical case counts to produce point forecasts that are mapped to probabilistic predictions through Poisson/negative-binomial moment matching. We focus on one-week-ahead rolling forecasts, aligning with weekly hospital-capacity planning and the rapid, context-driven inflections typical of HFMD. We evaluate on two datasets: Hong Kong surveillance (90 target weeks in 2023--2024) and Lishui hospital visits (33 target weeks in 2024). Against traditional and foundation-model baselines, our approach achieves competitive point accuracy while providing robust 90% intervals (coverage approximately 0.85--1.00) and concise rationales. This demonstrates that integrating domain knowledge through LLM-based agents can match strong numerical forecasters while yielding interpretable, context-aware forecasts aligned with public-health decision-making.

Medical image segmentation is fundamental for biomedical discovery. Existing methods lack generalizability and demand extensive, time-consuming manual annotation for new clinical application. Here, we propose MedSAM-3, a text promptable medical segmentation model for medical image and video segmentation. By fine-tuning the Segment Anything Model (SAM) 3 architecture on medical images paired with semantic conceptual labels, our MedSAM-3 enables medical Promptable Concept Segmentation (PCS), allowing precise targeting of anatomical structures via open-vocabulary text descriptions rather than solely geometric prompts. We further introduce the MedSAM-3 Agent, a framework that integrates Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to perform complex reasoning and iterative refinement in an agent-in-the-loop workflow. Comprehensive experiments across diverse medical imaging modalities, including X-ray, MRI, Ultrasound, CT, and video, demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing specialist and foundation models. We will release our code and model at https://github.com/Joey-S-Liu/MedSAM3.

Clinical language models often assign high confidence to incorrect predictions, particularly in high-severity and out-of-distribution cases. We present MedBayes-Lite, a retraining-free uncertainty governance layer for transformer-based clinical predictors. It combines Monte Carlo dropout, predictive calibration, and confidence-guided abstention to defer low-confidence predictions for human review, adding no trainable parameters. Evaluated on MedMCQA and MedQA-USMLE, MedBayes-Lite reduces expected calibration error by 0.23 to 0.33 and drives harmful overconfident errors (confident, incorrect, high-severity predictions) toward zero. Under domain shift from MedMCQA to MedQA-USMLE, it reduces confident high-severity errors from about 21% to near zero while roughly halving calibration drift. We also introduce the Clinical Uncertainty Score (CUS), which strongly correlates with harmful overconfidence (r approximately 0.88). Although the framework does not improve risk-coverage ranking, and temperature scaling or deep ensembles may provide advantages in calibration cost or risk ranking, MedBayes-Lite offers a practical calibration-and-abstention layer that reduces confident high-severity errors in clinical question-answering benchmarks.

Vision--language models (VLMs) have recently shown promise for assisting clinical reasoning in dermatological diagnosis. However, their trustworthiness and clinical utility remain limited by three key challenges: heterogeneous datasets with inconsistent diagnostic labels and concept annotations, the lack of grounded diagnostic rationales for reliable reasoning supervision, and limited scalability when transferring knowledge from small, densely annotated datasets to large collections with sparse labels. To address these challenges, we propose Skin-R1, a dermatology-oriented VLM that integrates textbook-grounded clinical reasoning supervision with reinforcement learning (RL) to improve the accuracy and robustness of diagnostic prediction. First, we construct a textbook-based reasoning generator that synthesizes hierarchy-aware and differential-diagnosis (DDx) diagnostic trajectories derived from authoritative dermatology knowledge. Second, these trajectories are used for supervised fine-tuning (SFT), establishing a clinically grounded reasoning foundation for the model. Finally, we introduce an RL training framework that incorporates the hierarchical structure of dermatological diseases into the reward design, enabling the model to generalize grounded diagnostic reasoning to large-scale datasets with sparse annotations. Extensive experiments across multiple dermatology benchmarks demonstrate that Skin-R1 consistently improves diagnostic accuracy and robustness compared to state-of-the-art Med-VLM baselines. Ablation studies further highlight the critical role of grounded reasoning supervision introduced during the SFT stage.

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects nearly 10% of the global population and often progresses to end-stage renal failure. Accurate prognosis prediction is vital for timely interventions and resource optimization. We present a transformer-based framework for predicting CKD progression using multi-modal electronic health records (EHR) from the Seoul National University Hospital OMOP Common Data Model. Our approach (\textbf{ProQ-BERT}) integrates demographic, clinical, and laboratory data, employing quantization-based tokenization for continuous lab values and attention mechanisms for interpretability. The model was pretrained with masked language modeling and fine-tuned for binary classification tasks predicting progression from stage 3a to stage 5 across varying follow-up and assessment periods. Evaluated on a cohort of 91,816 patients, our model consistently outperformed CEHR-BERT, achieving ROC-AUC up to 0.995 and PR-AUC up to 0.989 for short-term prediction. These results highlight the effectiveness of transformer architectures and temporal design choices in clinical prognosis modeling, offering a promising direction for personalized CKD care.

Equitable access to reliable health information is vital when integrating AI into healthcare. Yet, information quality varies across languages, raising concerns about the reliability and consistency of multilingual Large Language Models (LLMs). We systematically examine cross-lingual disparities in pre-training source and factuality alignment in LLM answers for multilingual healthcare Q&A across English, German, Turkish, Chinese (Mandarin), and Italian. We (i) constructed Multilingual Wiki Health Care (MultiWikiHealthCare), a multilingual dataset from Wikipedia; (ii) analyzed cross-lingual healthcare coverage; (iii) assessed LLM response alignment with these references; and (iv) conducted a case study on factual alignment through the use of contextual information and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Our findings reveal substantial cross-lingual disparities in both Wikipedia coverage and LLM factual alignment. Across LLMs, responses align more with English Wikipedia, even when the prompts are non-English. Providing contextual excerpts from non-English Wikipedia at inference time effectively shifts factual alignment toward culturally relevant knowledge. These results highlight practical pathways for building more equitable, multilingual AI systems for healthcare.

Modern computer systems rely on syslog, a universal protocol that records critical events across heterogeneous infrastructure. Medicine's rapidly growing AI stack has no equivalent. As medicine deploys AI tools at scale, there is no standard way to record how, when, by whom, and for whom these models are used. Without such records, it is difficult to measure real-world performance and outcomes, detect adverse events, or identify bias and dataset drift. Here we introduce MedLog, a protocol for event-level logging of medical AI. Each time an AI model interacts with a human, another algorithm, or an automated workflow, MedLog creates a record. Each record contains nine core fields: header, model, user, target, inputs, artifacts, outputs, outcomes, and feedback. We apply MedLog across four deployments in the US, Switzerland, and Vietnam: ICU deterioration prediction, tetanus progression monitoring from wearable signals, automated sepsis quality reporting, and patient attendance prediction. MedLog records capture model behavior, workflow interactions, and downstream outcomes, including AI performance degradation during severe weather events in patient attendance prediction and increased laboratory testing after ICU deterioration alerts. MedLog limits the data footprint through risk-based sampling, lifecycle-aware retention policies, and write-behind caching, enabling deployment in low-resource settings. It also supports detailed traces for complex, agentic, or multi-stage workflows, creating a foundation for continuous monitoring, auditing, and improvement of medical AI.

Electronic health Records (EHRs) have become a cornerstone in modern-day healthcare. They are a crucial part for analyzing the progression of patient health; however, their complexity, characterized by long, multivariate sequences, sparsity, and missing values poses significant challenges in traditional deep learning modeling. While Transformer-based models have demonstrated success in modeling EHR data and predicting clinical outcomes, their quadratic computational complexity and limited context length hinder their efficiency and practical applications. On the other hand, State Space Models (SSMs) like Mamba present a promising alternative offering linear-time sequence modeling and improved efficiency for handling long sequences, but focus mostly on mixing sequence-level information rather than channel-level data. To overcome these challenges, we propose HyMaTE (A Hybrid Mamba and Transformer Model for EHR Representation Learning), a novel hybrid model tailored for representing longitudinal data, combining the strengths of SSMs with advanced attention mechanisms. By testing the model on predictive tasks on multiple clinical datasets, we demonstrate HyMaTE's ability to capture an effective, richer, and more nuanced unified representation of EHR data. Additionally, the interpretability of the outcomes achieved by self-attention illustrates the effectiveness of our model as a scalable and generalizable solution for real-world healthcare applications. Codes are available at: https://github.com/healthylaife/HyMaTE.

Data augmentation is a widely used strategy to improve model robustness and generalization by enriching training datasets with synthetic examples. While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong generative capabilities for this purpose, their applications in high-stakes domains like healthcare present unique challenges due to the risk of generating clinically incorrect or misleading information. In this work, we propose a novel query-based model collaboration framework that integrates expert-level domain knowledge to guide the augmentation process to preserve critical medical information. Compared to existing LLM-based and traditional augmentation methods, our generated data significantly improves preservation of critical medical information and reduces hallucinations at both the token and concept levels. Experiments on downstream clinical prediction tasks demonstrate consistent performance gains over existing augmentation methods. This lightweight collaborative framework addresses the gap between LLM augmentation potential and the safety requirements of specialized domains.

Public datasets of Chest X-Rays (CXRs) have long been a popular benchmark for developing machine learning (ML) computer vision models in healthcare. However, the reported strong average-case performance of these models do not necessarily reflect their actual utility when used in heterogeneous clinical settings, potentially masking weaker performance in medically significant scenarios. In this work we use clinical context to provide a more holistic evaluation of models for CXR diagnosis. In particular, we use discharge summaries, recorded prior to each CXR, to derive a ``pre-CXR'' probability of each CXR label, as a proxy for existing contextual knowledge available to clinicians when interpreting CXRs. We use this measure to probe model performance along two dimensions: First, using a stratified analysis, we show that models tend to have lower performance (as measured by AUROC and other metrics) among individuals with higher pre-CXR probability. Second, by controlling for pre-CXR probability via matching and re-weighting, we demonstrate that performance degrades when the correlation is broken between prior context and the current CXR label, suggesting that model performance is highly sensitive to the underlying distribution of clinical context. Specifically, cases with high pre-test probabilities present a fundamentally more difficult visual classification task, highlighting a gap in clinical utility when models are applied to high-risk cohorts.

In high-stakes domains such as healthcare, privacy concerns severely limit the use of real-world training data. Differentially private (DP) synthetic data offers a promising alternative with formal privacy guarantees, but achieving strong utility remains challenging for clinical note generation due to domain specificity and long-form text complexity. We present Term2Note, a method for synthesising full-length clinical notes under DP constraints. By structurally separating content and form, Term2Note generates section-wise note content conditioned on medical terms, with terms and notes privatised under separate DP constraints, and applies a DP quality maximiser to improve outputs. Experiments demonstrate that Term2Note produces synthetic notes with statistical properties closely aligned with real clinical notes, and that downstream models trained on these notes achieve performance comparable to those trained on real clinical data. Compared to existing DP text generation baselines, Term2Note substantially improves both fidelity and utility, without relying on label distribution assumptions, highlighting its effectiveness as a practical privacy-preserving alternative to real clinical notes.

Many prediction tasks can admit multiple models that can perform almost equally well. This phenomenon can undermine interpretability and safety when competing models assign conflicting predictions to individuals. In this work, we study how arbitrariness can arise in probabilistic classification tasks as a result of an effect that we call \emph{observational multiplicity}. We discuss how this effect arises in a broad class of practical applications where we learn a classifier to predict probabilities $p_i \in [0,1]$ but are given a dataset of observations $y_i \in \{0,1\}$. We propose to evaluate the arbitrariness of individual probability predictions through the lens of \emph{regret}. We introduce a measure of regret for probabilistic classification tasks, which measures how the predictions of a model could change as a result of different training labels. We present a general-purpose method to estimate the regret in a probabilistic classification task. We use our measure to show that regret is often higher for certain groups in the dataset and discuss potential applications of regret. We demonstrate how estimating regret can be used to promote safety in real-world applications by abstention and data collection.

Domain generalization has become a critical challenge in predictive healthcare, where different patient groups exhibit shifting data distributions that degrade model performance. Still, regular domain generalization approaches often struggle in clinical settings due to (1) the absence of domain labels and (2) the lack of clinical insight integration. To address these challenges in healthcare, we aim to explore how medical ontologies can be used to discover dynamic yet hierarchy-grounded patient domains, a partitioning strategy that remains under-explored in prior work. Hence, we introduce UdonCare, a hierarchy-pruning method that iteratively divides patients into latent domains and retrieves domain-invariant (label) information from patient data. On public datasets (MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU), UdonCare shows superiority over eight generalization baselines across four representative clinical prediction tasks with substantial domain gaps, highlighting the potential of medical knowledge for enhancing model generalization.

Multimodal prediction models based on imaging and clinical data are increasingly used for clinical decision support, yet their interpretability remains limited. We present multimodal Deep Transformation Models (DTMs) combining statistical approaches and neural networks to achieve strong predictive performance while preserving interpretability for tabular data. A key contribution of this work is the adaption of the xAI methods Grad-CAM and Occlusion to DTMs relying on 3D CNNs, enabling interpretation of the image branch through the generation of explanation maps. We developed DTMs to predict functional independence three months after stroke using diffusion-weighted imaging and clinical data from 407 patients. In a ten-fold cross-validation, the models achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance (AUC 0.81 [0.75, 0.87]) while maintaining interpretability for tabular features, with functional independence before stroke and stroke severity on admission emerging as the strongest predictors. Explanation maps from both xAI methods highlighted consistent regions, including frontal lobe areas which are known to be associated with age, a strong predictor of functional outcome. Notably, these regions disappeared once age was included as an explicit tabular predictor. Similarity analyses of explanation maps revealed distinct spatial patterns, providing meaningful insights into stroke pathophysiology, systematic error analysis and hypothesis generation.

Every year in the United States, 800,000 individuals suffer a stroke - one person every 40 seconds, with a death occurring every four minutes. While individual factors vary, certain predictors are more prevalent in determining stroke risk. As strokes are the second leading cause of death and disability worldwide, predicting stroke likelihood based on lifestyle factors is crucial. Showing individuals their stroke risk could motivate lifestyle changes, and machine learning offers solutions to this prediction challenge. Neural networks excel at predicting outcomes based on training features like lifestyle factors, however, they're not the only option. Logistic regression models can also effectively compute the likelihood of binary outcomes based on independent variables, making them well-suited for stroke prediction. This analysis will compare both neural networks (dense and convolutional) and logistic regression models for stroke prediction, examining their pros, cons, and differences to develop the most effective predictor that minimizes false negatives.

The rapid development of large language models (LLMs) has transformed many industries, including healthcare. In practice, hospitals and patients increasingly seek LLM-based systems capable of interpreting personal health records and providing healthcare guidance. However, existing approaches mainly rely on general medical knowledge and often fail to account for individual variability, limiting their ability to provide personalized guidance. To address this, we propose personalized prompt learning (PPL), a framework that learns individualized prompts to guide LLMs in generating personalized healthcare recommendations. PPL constructs initial personalized prompts by leveraging both self-informed patient information and peer-informed signals derived from clinically similar cases. These prompts are then refined using reinforcement learning (RL) to better align the generated responses with physician recommendations written for each patient. PPL operates with hard prompts, enabling seamless integration with proprietary LLMs without modifying the underlying models. We evaluate PPL on real-world obstetrics and gynecology data. The results show that our approach produces more personalized healthcare guidance and wins 97 out of 100 comparisons in expert evaluation, demonstrating its potential for broader healthcare applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/CGCL-codes/PPL.

Medical image segmentation is a fundamental task in numerous medical engineering applications. Recently, language-guided segmentation has shown promise in medical scenarios where textual clinical reports are readily available as semantic guidance. Clinical reports contain diagnostic information provided by clinicians, which can provide auxiliary textual semantics to guide segmentation. However, existing language-guided segmentation methods neglect the inherent pattern gaps between image and text modalities, resulting in sub-optimal visual-language integration. Contrastive learning is a well-recognized approach to align image-text patterns, but it has not been optimized for bridging the pattern gaps in medical language-guided segmentation that relies primarily on medical image details to characterize the underlying disease/targets. Current contrastive alignment techniques typically align high-level global semantics without involving low-level localized target information, and thus cannot deliver fine-grained textual guidance on crucial image details. In this study, we propose a Target-informed Multi-level Contrastive Alignment framework (TMCA) to bridge image-text pattern gaps for medical language-guided segmentation. TMCA enables target-informed image-text alignments and fine-grained textual guidance by introducing: (i) a target-sensitive semantic distance module that utilizes target information for more granular image-text alignment modeling, (ii) a multi-level contrastive alignment strategy that directs fine-grained textual guidance to multi-scale image details, and (iii) a language-guided target enhancement module that reinforces attention to critical image regions based on the aligned image-text patterns. Extensive experiments on four public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TMCA enabled superior performance over state-of-the-art language-guided medical image segmentation methods.

Background: Neurosymbolic (NeSy) artificial intelligence describes the combination of logic or rule-based techniques with neural networks. Compared to neural approaches, NeSy methods often possess enhanced interpretability, which is particularly promising for biomedical applications like drug discovery. However, no clear guidelines exist to assess the biological plausibility of model interpretations. Methods: To assess interpretability in the context of drug discovery, we devise a novel prediction task, called drug mechanism-of-action (MoA) deconvolution, with an associated, tailored knowledge graph (KG), MoA-net. We then develop the MoA Retrieval System (MARS), a NeSy approach for drug discovery which leverages logical rules with learned rule weights. Results: Using MARS' interpretable features alongside domain knowledge, we find that MARS and other NeSy approaches on KGs are susceptible to reasoning shortcuts, in which the prediction of true labels is driven by ``degree-bias'' rather than the domain-based rules. Subsequently, we demonstrate ways to identify and mitigate this. Thereafter, MARS achieves performance on par with current state-of-the-art models while producing model interpretations aligned with known MoAs. Conclusion: Through MARS, we showcase the novel task of computational MoA deconvolution. Our results emphasize the importance of using interpretable models, like NeSy ones, for applications in drug discovery. Specifically, by identifying and mitigating reasoning shortcuts, MARS MoA predictions which are biologically meaningful and, therefore, more reliable for downstream drug discovery research.

Cancer treatments are known to introduce cardiotoxicity, negatively impacting outcomes and survivorship. Identifying cancer patients at risk of heart failure (HF) is critical to improving cancer treatment outcomes and safety. This study examined machine learning (ML) models to identify cancer patients at risk of HF using electronic health records (EHRs), including traditional ML, Time-Aware long short-term memory (T-LSTM), and large language models (LLMs) using novel narrative features derived from the structured medical codes. We identified a cancer cohort of 12,806 patients from the University of Florida Health, diagnosed with lung, breast, and colorectal cancers, among which 1,602 individuals developed HF after cancer. The LLM, GatorTron-3.9B, achieved the best F1 scores, outperforming the traditional support vector machines by 39%, the T-LSTM deep learning model by 7%, and a widely used transformer model, BERT, by 5.6%. The analysis shows that the proposed narrative features remarkably increased feature density and improved performance.

In this paper, we propose a modified version of the MedQA-USMLE dataset, named MEDQA-OPEN, which contains open-ended medical questions without options to mimic clinical scenarios, along with clinician-approved reasoned answers. Additionally, we implement a prompt driven by Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning, CLINICR, to mirror the prospective process of incremental reasoning, reaching a correct response to medical questions. We empirically demonstrate how CLINICR outperforms the state-of-the-art 5-shot CoT-based prompt (Liévin et al., 2022). We also present an approach that mirrors real-life clinical practice by first exploring multiple differential diagnoses through MCQ-CLINICR and subsequently narrowing down to a final diagnosis using MCQ-ELIMINATIVE. Finally, emphasizing the importance of response verification in medical settings, we utilize a reward model mechanism, replacing the elimination process performed by MCQ-ELIMINATIVE.

Building trustworthy machine learning algorithms for biological applications requires adapting to data heterogeneity from different sources, batches, distributions, or studies. We propose the 'Cross-Cluster Weighted Forest' (CCWF), an ensembling approach that explicitly leverages heterogeneity in the feature distribution to produce more accurate and more generalizable predictors than the standard Random Forest in cases when data can be naturally clustered. CCWF generalizes the RF architecture to an outer unsupervised layer, supervised subtasks, and ensembling. Specifically it involves unsupervised clustering of the training data, fitting a Random Forest on each cluster, and combining the forests via stacked regression weights that reward cross-cluster generalizability. We provide a theoretical analysis of an analytically tractable forest model showing that cluster-based ensembling is asymptotically more accurate than training a single forest on the full data, with the gain driven by bias reduction. In simulations, we find that CCWF is robust across data-generating regimes and outcome models; furthermore, we explore the influence of data partitioning and ensemble weighting strategies on the benefits of our method. Finally, we apply our approach to cancer molecular profiling and gene expression datasets that are naturally divisible into clusters; in both simulations and real data examples, we illustrate that our approach outperforms classic Random Forest by margins of 30-40%, aligning with our theoretical results. Overall, we show that CCWF provides a statistically grounded prediction algorithm for data spanning multiple domains or sub-populations, a structure common in biological applications.

Longitudinal mammography screening has become an important source of information for improving future breast cancer risk prediction. However, the performance of current longitudinal mammography models degrades when prior examinations are unavailable at inference, creating a structured privileged-information setting in which temporal context is available during training but absent at deployment. We propose Single-Exam Mammography risk prediction with privileged History Distillation (SEM-HD), a framework that uses longitudinal history as privileged information available only during training to preserve the predictive benefits of longitudinal modeling while requiring only the current screening examination at deployment. During training, the student relies on the current examination to predict latent representations of prior visits, while horizon-specific teachers provide additional supervision from the observed longitudinal history. Together, latent history prediction and teacher distillation preserve the temporal modeling structure of longitudinal predictors under current-exam-only inference. We validate SEM-HD on three longitudinal mammography cohorts, the CSAW-CC, EMBED, and OMI-DB, using the transformer-based Longitudinal Mammography Risk (LoMaR) and recurrent Visual Memory Recurrent Attention (VMRA) backbones. Under current-exam-only inference, SEM-HD consistently improves long-horizon AUC and pAUC over longitudinal models evaluated without history, particularly in the clinically relevant low false-positive-rate region. It also recovers much of the performance gap with respect to full-history inference across datasets and backbones. Ablations further show that these gains are not reproduced by masking or heuristic history imputation. The strongest performance is achieved by combining patient-specific latent history prediction with distilled temporal risk supervision.

Clinical diagnosis is a gradual process of evidence integration, in which physicians move from symptoms and medical history to examinations, competing hypotheses, disease relations, and treatment decisions. Large language models have advanced medical text understanding and generation. Yet their clinical use remains limited by weak evidence grounding, opaque reasoning, and inconsistent links among differential diagnosis, final diagnosis, diagnostic basis, and treatment planning. We introduce MedCollab, a multi-agent framework for full-cycle clinical diagnosis and report generation. MedCollab coordinates specialist and examination agents according to patient records. It structures agent deliberation with an Issue-Based Information System (IBIS) protocol, so that each diagnostic position is supported by patient-specific evidence and medical knowledge. It also builds Hierarchical Disease Relation Chains (HDRC) to connect accepted hypotheses through progression, complication, and comorbidity relations. During multi-round deliberation, a verifier-guided consensus module evaluates evidence support, medical plausibility, and logical conflicts. It then adjusts agent contributions and filters unsupported reasoning. Experiments on ClinicalBench and MIMIC-IV show that MedCollab outperforms leading LLMs and medical multi-agent baselines in diagnostic accuracy, evidence consistency, and clinical reasoning quality. These results indicate that structured and auditable collaboration can produce more faithful and clinically coherent diagnostic reports.

Few-shot medical image segmentation (FSMIS) seeks to delineate unseen structures from a small support set, but its standard formulation fixes task-defining evidence before inference. This assumption is fragile under acquisition shift, atypical pathology, ambiguous boundaries, and poor image quality. Adding clinician interaction and rapid adaptation is not sufficient: the binding constraint is deciding when asking or changing is warranted. We therefore reframe FSMIS as a three-layer sequential decision problem. First, decidable self-assessment separates errors that a bounded intervention can repair from those that no admissible intervention can reach. We formalize this distinction through a correctable set defined by the update operator and remaining interaction budget. Second, selective interaction allocates a distinct expert-attention budget by response-conditioned net expected value of information, yielding explicit accept, query, and defer actions. Third, bounded adaptation emphasizes reversibility and independent safety reassessment rather than speed. A complementary cross-case memory stores reproducible correction priors over failure modes instead of disease-specific mask priors. This structure links sparse support representation, cross-domain robustness, multi-level risk estimation, clinician feedback, and governed experience transfer. We state six hypotheses with an explicit dependency order and propose a minimal pilot that can falsify the foundational self-assessment claim before a clinician study. The central claim is not that interaction resolves domain shift, but that scarce expert attention should be used only when a bounded intervention is expected to reach a clinically better outcome.

Large-scale language models (LLMs) often offer clinical judgments based on incomplete information, increasing the risk of misdiagnosis. Existing studies have primarily evaluated confidence in single-turn, static settings, overlooking the coupling between confidence and correctness as clinical evidence accumulates during real consultations, which limits their support for reliable decision-making. We propose the first benchmark for assessing confidence in multi-turn interaction during realistic medical consultations. Our benchmark unifies three types of medical data for open-ended diagnostic generation and introduces an information sufficiency gradient to characterize the confidence-correctness dynamics as evidence increases. We implement and compare 27 representative methods on this benchmark; two key insights emerge: (1) medical data amplifies the inherent limitations of token-level and consistency-level confidence methods, and (2) medical reasoning must be evaluated for both diagnostic accuracy and information completeness. Based on these insights, we present MedConf, an evidence-grounded linguistic self-assessment framework that constructs symptom profiles via retrieval-augmented generation, aligns patient information with supporting, missing, and contradictory relations, and aggregates them into an interpretable confidence estimate through weighted integration. Across two LLMs and three medical datasets, MedConf consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on both AUROC and Pearson correlation coefficient metrics, maintaining stable performance under conditions of information insufficiency and multimorbidity. These results demonstrate that information adequacy is a key determinant of credible medical confidence modeling, providing a new pathway toward building more reliable and interpretable large medical models.

The scarcity of temporally aligned pre-event physiological data limits the study of stroke risk states before documented clinical recognition. We focus on patients who experienced stroke during hospitalization while undergoing continuous monitoring, enabling retrospective analysis of pre-anchor photoplethysmography (PPG). Using MIMIC-III and MC-MED, an LLM-assisted pipeline generated candidate stroke anchors from unstructured notes. All retained anchors underwent physician adjudication, and a stratified 100-case double-review audit showed 95.0% candidate-to-adjudicated agreement within +/-15 min. We identified 176 MIMIC-III patients and 154 MC-MED patients with eligible synchronized pre-anchor PPG. A fixed 17-channel hemodynamic representation and ResNet-1D classifier were evaluated using patient-level five-fold internal validation and frozen external testing. At validation-selected operating points, F1-scores were 0.7956, 0.8759, and 0.9406 for 4-, 5-, and 6-hour horizons in MIMIC-III and 0.9256, 0.9595, and 0.9888 in MC-MED; the corresponding threshold-free AUCs ranged from 0.6124 to 0.7079. The PPG model achieved higher F1 than four non-waveform clinical and structured-EHR comparators in all six cohort-horizon settings. On high-risk non-stroke controls, window-level false-positive rates ranged from 0.1371 to 0.2938 and decreased to 0.0183-0.1739 after persistence aggregation. These retrospective findings support measurable pre-anchor PPG structure, but do not establish biological stroke onset, a calibrated bedside alarm, or a clinically validated prediction lead time.

Clinical care often relies on key laboratory indicators, yet real-world patient visits are sparse and tests are ordered irregularly, leading to pervasive missingness. While many imputation methods improve average accuracy, they provide limited guidance on which imputed values are reliable enough for high-stakes downstream use. In this work, we study reliable clinical imputation, aiming to produce accurate imputations while selectively releasing the reliable results, with statistical control over clinically unacceptable errors. To achieve this goal, we propose SafeImpute, a reliable imputation framework for irregular and sparse clinical longitudinal records. SafeImpute constructs an event graph that captures both intra-patient temporal trajectories and inter-patient clinical similarity, and learns imputations with a two-relation GNN and adaptive fusion, regularized by an auxiliary masked reconstruction objective. For reliability guarantees, SafeImpute converts a proxy risk score into conformal p-values and applies the Benjamini--Hochberg procedure to control the false discovery rate (FDR) of unacceptable errors among released imputations at a user-specified tolerance. Experiments on our Mayo Clinic data, the public MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets show that SafeImpute achieves strong imputation accuracy while providing reliable error control, outperforming diverse baselines in both standard imputation evaluation and FDR-controlled selective-release evaluation.