Human Behavior Prediction

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

9 papers in the last four weeks, up 125% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 42

All topics

HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior
Oct 6, 2026Jin Huang, Diego Ferreras Garrucho, Yutong Xie +4LLM Evaluation LLM Fine-Tuning
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor · London School of Economics · MobLab Inc +1
Active Feature Acquisition for Cost-Efficient Temporal Prediction with Reduced Participant Burden
Oct 5, 2026Yunni Qu, Bing Cai Kok, Whitney Ringwald +4Time Series Forecasting Active Learning
Department of Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore +2
NextMe-800: Anticipating Personal Behavior from Months of Egocentric Video
Oct 1, 2026Zhaoxu Meng, Yiming Sun, Mingyuan Gao +5Next-Action Prediction Egocentric Video Understanding
The University of Hong Kong · Tongji University
Can We Anticipate Violence? Multimodal Learning from Pre-Incident Behavioral Cues
Sep 30, 2026Sindhuja Penchala, Mohammed Yusuf Mujawar, Noorbakhsh Amiri Golilarz +2Human Behavior Prediction Multimodal Learning
Department of Computer Science, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA
Where Do Test-Time Scaling and Training Fall Short in Individual Stance Prediction?
Sep 27, 2026Yuyang Zhao, Xuan Liu, HaoYang Shang +1Test-Time Scaling Human Behavior Prediction
University of California, San Diego
AI-Moderated Interviews for Market Research and Digital Twins Calibration
Sep 24, 2026Yuting Deng, Jingxuan Liu, Olivier Toubia +1Human-AI Interaction Human Behavior Prediction
Columbia Business School, Columbia University · The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Learning from Humans for Proactive Assistance in Human-Robot Collaborative Transport
Sep 21, 2026Elvin Yang, Christoforos MavrogiannisRobotic Control Human-Robot Collaboration
Department of Robotics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
Behavioral Fingerprinting and Navigation Prediction in Web Browsing
Sep 16, 2026Ralph Elsaghbini, Omran Berjawi, Walid Fahs +1User Modeling Human Behavior Prediction
Computer sciences and networks department (INFRES) Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Telecom Paris, Palaiseau, France · Faculty of Engineering Islamic University of Lebanon, Faculty of Engineering Wardanieh, Lebanon
Neuro-Symbolic Hierarchical Intention Anticipation in Human Behavior
Sep 15, 2026Farnaz Soleimani, Abdelghani Chibani, Yacine Amirat +1Human Behavior Prediction Neuro-Symbolic Reasoning
LISSI · aLISSI Laboratory, University of Paris-Est Créteil (UPEC), IUT de Créteil-Vitry, France
Explainable Prediction from Mobile Sensing Data through LLM-guided Concept Integration
Sep 14, 2026Yuning Wang, Iman Azimi, Amir M. Rahmani +1Concept Bottleneck Models Interpretable ML
University of Turku, Department of Computing, Turku, Finland · University of California, Irvine, Department of Computer Science, California, USA
Social Intuition vs. Machine Reasoning: Anticipating Human-Robot Interaction from multiple modalities
Sep 7, 2026Raphael Lorenzo-Louis, Bertrand Luvison, Serena IvaldiHuman Behavior Prediction Human-Robot Interaction
Inria, CNRS, UL, Loria, HUCEBOT F-54600 Villers-les-Nancy France
Predictors of Loneliness in Older Adults Using Multimodal Analysis of Speech and Language
Sep 2, 2026Vinmay Khandode, Sai Karthik Kosuri, Neil K. R. Sehgal +6Human Behavior Prediction
Computer and Information Science Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA · Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA · Klaatch, a division of SeniorsTogether, Inc., New York, NY, USA +2
Do LLMs Know Your Neighborhood? Auditing LLM Priors for Neighborhood-Level Mobility Prediction and Structural Alignment
Aug 31, 2026Saad Mohammad Abrar, Eesha Kurella, Arnav Dadarya +3LLM Auditing Human Behavior Prediction
University of Maryland USA
Modeling Human Behavior with Type Vectors Using AI
Aug 18, 2026Matthew O. Jackson, Benjamin S. Manning, Yutong Xie +2Human Behavior Simulation Human Behavior Prediction
Stanford University, Santa Fe Institute, Monash University · Moblab · MIT, MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy +2
Inverse Theory of Mind Modeling for Content Recommendation: From Web Browsing to Dynamic Intelligent Interfaces
Aug 11, 2026Mengyu Chen, Feiyu Lu, Chun-Fu Chen +2Theory of Mind User Modeling
JPMorganChase New York City, NY, USA · JPMorganChase London, UK · JPMorganChase Palo Alto, CA, USA
Beyond the Black Box: Interpretable Models of Human Randomisation Failures
Aug 7, 2026Ngoc Linh DaoInterpretable ML Zero-Sum Games
Alpen-Adria-University of Klagenfurt, Austria
Mind the Gaps: Mixture-of-Minds for Human Simulation
Aug 6, 2026Pranav DahiyaMixture-of-Experts Language Models Human Behavior Simulation
Semilattice
Otter: A Time-Aware, History-Conditioned Human Chess AI
Aug 5, 2026Tarun Kumar SBehavior Cloning Human Behavior Prediction
Peargent Labs Bangalore, India
Secrets Everywhere: Auditing Memorization in Mobility Prediction Models
Aug 3, 2026Anne Josiane Kouam, Hristo Boyadzhiev, Konrad RieckPrivacy Auditing Human Behavior Prediction
Inria & TU Berlin Palaiseau, France · BIFOLD & TU Berlin Berlin, Germany
Mental World Modeling
Jul 29, 2026Hao Fei, Yiran ZhaoWorld Model Learning Theory of Mind
University of Oxford · National University of Singapore
Speech Signals Complement LLMs for Predicting Interpersonal Attraction in Speed Dating
Jul 25, 2026Yuriko Kikuchi, Takato Hayashi, Ryusei Kimura +3Speech Processing Human Behavior Prediction
Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology · Nomi, Ishikawa, Japan · NTT, Inc. +1
Scene-aware Prediction of Diverse Human Movement Goals
Jun 29, 2026Qiaoyue Yang, Amadeus Weber, Magnus Jung +2Human Motion Prediction Human Behavior Prediction
Institute for Information Technology and Communications (IIKT), Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg, 39106 Magdeburg, Germany
An Integrated Machine Learning and Hierarchical Variance Decomposition Pipeline for Student Performance Prediction and Metacognitive Calibration on Multi-Signal Telemetry
Jun 27, 2026Gurdeep Singh VirdeeEducational Assessment Educational Data Mining
Fergana State Technical University, Uzbekistan
BehaviorBench: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Behavioral Science Tasks
Jun 23, 2026Jin Huang, Yutong Xie, Wanli Song +4Benchmark Design Human Behavior Simulation
University of Michigan · MobLab · Stanford University +1
Using Cognitive Models to Improve Language Model Simulation of Human Persuasion Games
Jun 16, 2026Zirui Cheng, Zeyu Shen, Thomas L. Griffiths +1RL for Language Models Cognitive Modeling
1Princeton University
When Cognitive Graphs Meet LLMs: BDEI Cognitive Pathways for Panic Emotional Arousal Prediction
Jun 13, 2026Mengzhu Liu, Long Qin, Chuan Ai +7Event Time Prediction Computational Cognitive Modeling
National Key Laboratory of Digital Intelligent Modeling and Simulation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, Hunan Province, China · College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China +1
Towards Efficient and Evidence-grounded Mobility Prediction with LLM-Driven Agent
Jun 3, 2026Linyao Chen, Qinlao Zhao, Zechen Li +7LLM Agents Human Behavior Prediction
The University of Tokyo · Huazhong University of Science and Technology · University of New South Wales, Sydney +3
BehaviorBench: Modeling Real-World User Decisions from Behavioral Traces
Jun 1, 2026Liangwei Yang, Jielin Qiu, Zixiang Chen +9Forecasting Benchmarks User Modeling
Salesforce AI Research
Early Prediction of Future Behavioral Strategy from Process Traces
May 28, 2026Robert Kasumba, Dennis Barbour, Chien-Ju HoLatent Variable Models Human Behavior Prediction
Division of Computational and Data Sciences Washington University in Saint Louis Saint Louis, MO 63130 · Department of Biomedical Engineering Washington University in Saint Louis Saint Louis, MO 63130 · Department of Computer Science Washington University in Saint Louis Saint Louis, MO 63130
TRAFA: Anticipating User Actions to Reduce Errors in Procedural Tasks with Predictive Feedback
May 23, 2026Sassan Mokhtar, Lars Doorenbos, Fatemeh Jabbari +3Proactive Assistance Human Behavior Prediction
University of Bonn · Bonn, Germany · Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

Oct 6, 2026, cs.CLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior

Jin Huang, Diego Ferreras Garrucho, Yutong Xie, Walter M. Yuan+3

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor · London School of Economics · MobLab Inc+1

LLM Evaluation LLM Fine-Tuning Forecasting Benchmarks Human Behavior Prediction

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to meet a key goal in economics: a quantitative model of household decision making, across a variety of settings. Yet existing evaluations cover few surveys and outcomes, and do not study how households adjust to changing economic conditions. We introduce a new evaluation, HouseholdBench, which unites 6 U.S. household surveys and 32 prediction tasks spanning numeric, categorical and probabilistic outcomes, related to consumption, income, labor, expectations, and housing. Using past behavior, demographics and macroeconomic conditions, the tasks test whether LLMs predict behavior, including how households adjust to changes in various policies. We evaluate 13 proprietary and open-weight LLMs against a no-change baseline and a gradient-boosted tree model. Most LLMs outperform the no-change baseline, including for policy response tasks -- with the best model lowering error for numeric outcomes by 12.2%. Across most tasks, gradient-boosted trees rank first; leading proprietary LLMs approach their performance, but open-weight models lag. LLMs exhibit systematic over- and underprediction across different tasks. We identify methods that enable a 4 billion parameter open-weight model to match proprietary models' performance: fine-tuning and aggregating 16 predictions per observation. Improvements generalize to policy-response tasks, which are excluded from fine-tuning. We release our datasets, code, and leaderboard on our website: https://jn-huang.github.io/householdbench

Momentum

Related topics

Latest papers 42