Missing Data

In order to make Reinforcement Learning algorithms applicable in real world scenarios, safety must be ensured even under adverse operating conditions. In this work, we consider the challenge of adversarial feature missingness: a scenario in which an adversary occludes features from the agent's observation in order to reduce performance as much as possible. We formally define adversarial missingness for Reinforcement Learning and compare it to the related concepts of $\ell_\infty$-norm bounded adversarial perturbations and learning with missing data. We develop an adversarial training algorithm and show its effectiveness in increasing robustness against adversarial missingness on three MuJoCo benchmark environments. Compared to a baseline trained with random uniform missingness, our method achieves better robustness on all three tasks.

We consider semi-supervised classification from a partially classified sample arising from a two-component Weibull mixture. The feature is observed for all data, whereas some class labels are missing. The probability of a missing label is modelled as a function of classification uncertainty, giving a feature-dependent missing-at-random (MAR) mechanism that shares parameters with the Weibull-mixture classifier. The missing-label indicators can therefore provide information about the classifier in addition to the observed features and available class labels. Under a common Weibull shape, a Bayes' rule has at most one positive decision boundary, which is unique when the rule is nonconstant; under unequal shapes, it can have two. We characterise these decision regions, derive the Fisher information for the classifier after adjustment for nuisance parameters in the missingness model, and obtain a decision-boundary expansion of the expected error rate of the plug-in sample rule relative to the Bayes error. The expansion yields classification-specific asymptotic relative efficiency formulas for the one- and two-boundary cases and shows that a positive-definite increase in Fisher information is sufficient, but not necessary, for a smaller first-order expected error rate. Numerical studies and a semi-synthetic analysis based on hard-drive failure data illustrate potential reductions in expected error rate and improvements in decision-boundary estimation from modelling feature-dependent label missingness.

Depression and anxiety in older adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) are frequently underdiagnosed due to limited access to care. Multimodal analysis of remote clinical interviews is a scalable screening approach, but existing methods have three limitations. First, they do not correct temporal misalignment across multimodal features extracted at different resolutions, inducing spurious cross-modal associations. Second, remote recordings exhibit uneven modality dropout, but missing values are often zero-filled, making them indistinguishable from valid near-zero measurements. Finally, they do not jointly attribute predictions to modalities, questions, and interview moments, limiting fine-grained clinical interpretation. We propose a Temporally-Aligned, Missingness-Aware, Interpretable (TAMI) multimodal fusion framework. TAMI aligns speech, language, facial, and physiological features within question-answer segments on a shared timeline, encodes modality-level missingness over time, and conditions fusion on question context. In interviews with 49 older adults with MCI, TAMI achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) scores of 0.68 (depression) and 0.69 (anxiety). Fine-grained temporal alignment of multimodal features produced the largest performance gain ($Δ{\geq}0.1$). Multi-level interpretability analysis revealed that depression classification relied on eyegaze and open-ended questions, while anxiety classification depended on eyegaze and head pose, with attribution uniformly distributed across questions. Using only responses to the open-ended questions (5.1min), the depression model achieved an AUROC score of 0.67, which was not significantly different from using the full interview (19min) ($p>0.05$). Our findings support designing interview protocols centered on open-ended questions for depression screening in older adults with MCI.

Informative label missingness can change the usual efficiency ordering between completely and partially labelled classifiers because the pattern of missing labels may itself carry information about the classification model. We develop a general likelihood-based theory for this phenomenon in parametric multiclass classification. An efficient-information decomposition separates information lost through unavailable class memberships from information contributed by the missing-label mechanism. We then derive a quadratic expansion of plug-in excess risk over the active pairwise faces of the multiclass Bayes boundary, showing that classification efficiency depends on how information gains and losses align with directions that perturb the decision boundary. This yields a classification-weighted generalized-eigenvalue criterion under which informative partial classification may have smaller asymptotic classification risk without globally dominating complete classification in Fisher information. Near missing completely at random, with the marginal missing-label proportion fixed, redistribution of missing labels changes lost class-label information at first order, whereas efficient information from the missingness pattern appears only at second order. Three-class quadratic discriminant calculations, finite-sample experiments, and a semi-synthetic multiclass application illustrate the resulting regime-dependent behaviour.

Missing data, measurement error, and population heterogeneity are pervasive challenges in analyzing data arising from modern observational studies and machine learning applications. Although these problems frequently coexist and interact, they are often treated separately in existing works. We propose a unified probabilistic framework that jointly addresses these issues utilizing deep latent variable representation. The proposed method integrates a novel hierarchical tree-routed variational autoencoder with pattern-aware latent representations and calibration-based denoising. The framework accommodates missing data mechanisms, including MCAR, MAR, and MNAR, while simultaneously learning subgroup-specific and globally shared latent structure. The introduced reconvergent routing mechanism enables selective parameters to be shared across related subpopulations, which offers flexibility as well as improved statistical efficiency. Simulation studies demonstrate substantial improvements over existing deep generative imputation approaches under complex heterogeneous missingness and measurement-error settings. The proposed framework provides a principled approach for learning from noisy and incomplete data in modern healthcare and other high-dimensional applications.

Continuous physiological time series underpin modern clinical monitoring, yet many of the most informative signals are invasive, expensive, or simply unavailable for a given patient. Conditional generation offers a remedy: an absent signal can be synthesized from co-recorded signals and routine clinical variables. Existing generators, however, are built around a single conditioning modality and degrade when forced to handle the heterogeneous, irregularly missing mix of time-variant signals and static covariates seen in practice. We propose ReCoGen (Represent Conditions, then Generate), a two-stage framework that decouples multimodal condition representation from target generation. Stage I trains one masked autoencoder per modality, distilling each time-variant condition into a compact and missingness-tolerant token sequence. Stage II trains a flow-matching generator that fuses these tokens with static conditions to synthesize the target signal. Across three physiological benchmarks, including continuous glucose monitoring on AI-READI and arterial blood pressure generation on MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, ReCoGen attains the best downstream utility on all sixteen (dataset, task, metric) settings, surpassing six representative conditional generators; on thirteen of them its utility also reaches or exceeds the utility measured on the real signal, a reference we read as an approximate anchor rather than a ceiling. Ablations trace the gains to the conditioning path: learnable cross-attention over the frozen per-modality encoders, and a dual token-plus-AdaLN route for the static conditions. ReCoGen thus turns routinely collected signals into informative surrogates for invasive or unavailable ones, a step toward less invasive, lower-cost continuous clinical monitoring.

Healthcare data, such as Intensive Care Unit (ICU) records, comprise heterogeneous multivariate time series sampled at irregular intervals with pervasive missingness. However, clinical applications demand predictive models that are both accurate and interpretable. We present our Graph Attention-based Relational Learning for Intensive Care (GARLIC) model, a novel neural network architecture that imputes missing data through a learnable exponential-decay encoder, captures inter-sensor dependencies via time-lagged summary graphs, and fuses global patterns with cross-dimensional sequential attention. All attention weights and graph edges are learned end-to-end to serve as built-in observation-, signal-, and edge-level explanations. To reconcile auxiliary reconstruction and primary classification objectives, we developed an alternating decoupled optimization scheme that stabilizes training. On three ICU benchmarks (PhysioNet 2012 & 2019, MIMIC-III), GARLIC sets the new state of the art in outcome prediction, significantly improving AUROC and AUPRC over best-performing baselines at comparable computational cost. Ablation studies confirm the contribution of each module, and feature-removal trials validate the fidelity of importance attribution through a monotonic performance drop (full > top 50% > random 50% > bottom 50%). Real-time case studies demonstrate actionable risk warnings with transparent explanations, marking a significant advance toward accurate, explainable deep learning for irregularly sampled ICU time series data. Moreover, we demonstrated \proposed{}'s superiority in data imputation and classification on various time-series datasets beyond the ICU domain, showing its generalizability and applicability to broader tasks.

What should a machine learning model learn when data is missing during training? We look at the learning process from a dynamical systems perspective, cast data missingness as a structured loss of actuation that limits controllability of the parameter error dynamics, and ultimately derive adaptation mechanisms with Lyapunov stability characteristics that throttle model updates in ways that preserve learning coherence under partial, intermittent observability. Under recurrent excitation, our analysis provides ISS-type residual-to-state bounds with respect to a bounded closed-loop mismatch between the loss residual and the preconditioned update geometry. We evaluate the efficacy of our directional observability-aware adaptive learning approach on multimodal contexts, reinforcing its premise in promoting learning coherence and stability even in pathologically sparse domains and problems.

Probabilistic Regression Trees (PRTrees) are a smooth and consistent alternative to classical regression trees, producing continuous predictions through probabilistic split assignments. This paper extends the PRTree framework to accommodate missing predictor values directly during tree construction, eliminating the need for prior imputation. Three strategies are proposed, each exploiting the available information differently: a uniform-probability approach, a partial-observation approach, and a dimension-reduced smoothing approach. These modifications are defined to preserve the fundamental probabilistic properties of the original methodology, including probability conservation and marginal compatibility, under arbitrary patterns of missing covariate values. The proposed methods are evaluated on several real-world datasets exhibiting different levels of missingness and are compared with classical regression trees. The results show that the effectiveness of probabilistic tree construction depends strongly on the treatment of missing observations. Across the considered datasets, the fill strategy emerged as the dominant modeling component, often exerting a larger influence on predictive performance than either the smoothing distribution or the proxy-selection criterion. In datasets where a substantial proportion of observations contained missing predictor values, the proposed methods frequently outperformed CART, while maintaining the interpretability and flexibility of tree-based models.

Task-specific fine-tuning can improve the performance of large language models (LLMs) on downstream tasks. However, our study reveals that task-specific fine-tuning can also weaken the safety guardrails of aligned LLMs. A widely adopted strategy for preserving safety during fine-tuning is to incorporate safety data. Although previous studies have shown that randomly mixing safety data can alleviate safety degradation, the underlying principle determining why some safety examples are more effective than others still remains unclear. In this paper, we propose DataRx, a missingness-aware sampling method for selecting safety-critical examples. DataRx is based on the hypothesis that a safety sample is more effective when the selected examples provide safety signals that fill the missing parts of LLMs' safety capabilities. DataRx's key insight is leveraging high-dimensional hidden representations rather than discrete tokens to quantify the safety signal gap between the target model's native response and the safety reference response. The results show that, with only 1% additional safety samples from BeaverTails, DataRx reduces the average attack success rate of Llama3-8B-Instruct across seven downstream tasks from 59.23% under random sampling to 13.70%. In addition, DataRx can be combined with the existing safety data synthesis method to further enhance safety defenses during fine-tuning. We hope that DataRx will inspire more data-centric defense research.

Multivariate time series imputation is fundamental to downstream analysis, yet modeling inter-variable dependencies with incomplete observations remains challenging. Existing methods learn global dependencies across samples or dynamic local dependencies per sample. Global dependencies are stable but adapt poorly to sample variations and temporal non-stationarity, whereas local dependencies are adaptive yet unreliable when observations are insufficient, causing erroneous information propagation. To address these limitations, we propose GLAIM, a Global-Local Adaptive Inter-variable Dependency Modeling framework for multivariate time series imputation. GLAIM comprises two complementary components. The Stable Global Dependency Constructor derives robust global inter-variable dependencies from complementary temporal representations, providing a stable backbone less affected by sample-specific missingness and noise. The Sample-Conditioned Dependency Refiner adapts this backbone to each sample and time step using its temporal state and available observations, enabling reliable local refinement under incomplete observations. Extensive experiments on nine real-world datasets demonstrate that GLAIM achieves state-of-the-art performance under random and block missingness, remains robust to missing-rate shifts, and benefits from its complementary global and local components. Code is available at https://github.com/LuRenjias/GLAIM.

Predicting missing cell values in tabular data is a fundamental problem in data cleaning. While state-of-the-art reasoning models show great promise in predicting missing values in tables, by reasoning holistically across rows and columns, they are costly to deploy at scale and tend to be overconfident, often generating hallucinated or false-positive predictions. In this paper, we observe that achieving high-precision missing-value prediction in tables requires a distinct combination of three capabilities: (1) world knowledge, (2) text-based reasoning, and (3) code-based reasoning. We systematically explore design choices for combining these capabilities, and propose an Auto-Fill approach that post-trains three specialist small language models (SLMs), each optimized for one capability. We develop a calibrated ensemble mechanism that either dynamically selects the most confident specialist or abstains, ensuring high accuracy. Extensive experiments on 11 benchmarks with 2200 real tables drawn from diverse domains show that Auto-Fill achieves superior accuracy compared to state-of-the-art reasoning models (e.g., o3-pro, Gemini 3 Pro, and DeepSeek R1), while operating at a fraction (less than 1%) of the cost of these frontier models. Our results highlight the effectiveness of specialization and calibrated abstention in the important domain of tabular data. Auto-Fill is publicly available at https://github.com/lyrain2001/auto-fill.

Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints. Most proposed methods assume complete treatment data, yet applications frequently suffer from missingness that can bias estimates and lead to suboptimal policies. We address this gap by extending efficient estimators for average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to policy value and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under missing at random (MAR) and missing completely conditionally at random (MCCAR) treatment data. Through asymptotic efficiency analysis, we prove that the MAR estimator, which leverages partially-observed units, is both valid and more efficient than the MCCAR estimator when MCCAR assumptions hold. This result provides formal justification for preferring MAR-based estimation in policy learning under both missing data settings. Our comprehensive experiments using synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets confirm that correctly specifying the missingness mechanism is crucial: misspecified estimators remain biased regardless of sample size, while our estimators achieve near-oracle performance when assumptions are satisfied. Our work provides practitioners with theoretically grounded, empirically validated tools for robust policy learning in the presence of missing treatment data.

Missing data is ubiquitous in real-world datasets. Traditional methods either discard incomplete samples or apply imputation techniques that ignore potentially informative missingness patterns, implicitly assuming that missingness occurs randomly. However, missingness patterns might provide additional information. We propose pattern-aware graph neural networks that explicitly encode which features are missing alongside observed values. We used four encoding strategies -- learned embeddings, frozen random embeddings, statistical features, and hierarchical representations -- across seven UCI datasets with naturally occurring missingness. Our Pattern-aware methods achieve substantial improvements over baselines, with an average improvement of 17% in balanced accuracy and 22% in F1-macro across all datasets. The benefits vary significantly by dataset: annealing shows dramatic improvement (+80% balanced accuracy), while hepatitis and soybean show minimal gains (+4--5%). Notably, even simple random pattern embeddings perform comparably to learned embeddings (0.650 vs 0.663 balanced accuracy), suggesting that distinguishing between patterns may be more important than task-specific optimization. Our ablation study reveals that attention mechanisms, while helpful, are not critical when pattern information is available -- simple mean aggregation with pattern awareness achieves 0.640 balanced accuracy compared to 0.645 for attention-based variants.

Missing data is a persistent obstacle in scientific, social science, and public health research, often biasing analyses and placing accountability on analysts for how they handle missing values. We introduce ImputeViz, an integrated visual analytics dashboard that supports diagnosing missingness, configuring imputation models, and evaluating results. The system brings together widely used methods, including MICE, Random Forest, XGBoost, and kNN, within an interactive environment that makes missingness patterns explicit. To support geospatial reasoning, we introduce gKNN, a geographically informed kNN variant that blends socioeconomic and spatial distances and exposes donor contributions, enabling provenance-based visual accountability by showing which regions drive each estimate. Our primary contribution is a method-agnostic visual analytics environment that makes cross-method comparison a first-class visual task and integrates gKNN alongside standard methods. Coordinated views reveal missingness structure through heatmaps, co-missingness summaries, and distributional diagnostics that help analysts reason about missingness patterns (MCAR/MAR) and cases where missingness may be non-random (MNAR). Users can compare and tune models and interrogate results via distributional overlays, a Method Comparison Summary reporting MAE, RMSE, Delta RMSE, and runtime for each algorithm on the current target and mask, along with variable-level discrepancy views. Cached per-method results and locked axis scales reduce cognitive overhead from shifting ranges during method switching. These comparisons highlight where methods disagree, which variables are sensitive, and how imputation choices affect downstream summaries. Case studies demonstrate how ImputeViz helps analysts select effective strategies, surface sensitive variables, and assess model robustness.

Missing data is prevalent in practical applications, making effective imputation an essential preprocessing step for downstream analysis. Real-world datasets often exhibit complex latent structures composed of multiple subgroups with distinct distributions. However, existing methods often overlook such population heterogeneity. Without explicit structural guidance, these methods tend to produce generic estimates that blur subgroup boundaries and lack instance-level fidelity. While incorporating subgroup information offers a remedy, it faces a circular dependency: reliable subgroup identification requires complete data, while data completion is the imputation objective itself. To resolve this, we propose CAGI (Cluster-Aware Generative Imputation), a framework that reformulates clustering and imputation as a mutually reinforcing co-optimization process. CAGI employs a ``Partition-Guide-Restore'' strategy where dynamic cluster assignments act as local priors to condition a Generative Adversarial Network. An iterative feedback loop is established to progressively refine both cluster structures and imputed values toward faithful subgroup distributions. To ensure distributional stability, CAGI further employs a multi-level optimization objective combining instance-level reconstruction with distribution-level regularization. Extensive experiments on 14 benchmark datasets with 15 representative baselines demonstrate the superiority of CAGI. The source code is available at: https://github.com/supercocachii/CAGI

The manifold hypothesis posits that high-dimensional data are concentrated near a low-dimensional embedded manifold. Recent advances in mixture variational autoencoders (VAEs) provide a powerful tool for extracting such underlying structure in a faithful manner. The resulting geometric structure naturally introduces local and global relationships among variables, thereby providing a systematic way of imputing missing data. We propose a model-based imputation method that enables sampling from $p(\bm{x}_{\mathrm{mis}} \mid \bm{x}_{\mathrm{obs}})$ via a sampling-importance-resampling (SIR) procedure, which can be further augmented with a joint diffusion model in the latent space. Our method imputes missing data while respecting the underlying geometry, achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art procedures, quantifies uncertainty in the imputations, and is model-based, thereby enabling on-the-fly imputation without rerunning the entire procedure.

Clinical time series prediction in intensive care units remains challenging due to heterogeneous physiological variables and informative missingness. The presence or absence of a measurement can reflect clinical decisions and patient severity, and thus missingness can serve as a predictive signal rather than a simple data artifact. This work presents CISM, a Channel-Independent Spectrogram framework with a Missingness stream for clinical multivariate time series prediction. CISM converts each clinical variable into a variable-wise time-frequency spectrogram, preserves variable identity through variable-aligned encoding, and aligns an explicit missingness stream with the spectrogram representation. Experiments on an in-hospital mortality task derived from MIMIC-IV show that CISM achieves the highest mean AUROC (0.7225), AUPRC (0.3308), and F1 (0.3808) among the compared time series, missingness-aware, vision, and time-frequency baselines. Ablation studies further show that observation patterns provide a meaningful informative signal. Pixel-level mask injection improves performance over plain spectrogram inputs and recovers much of this predictive value. The aligned missingness stream contributes a further, complementary gain in both AUROC and AUPRC. These results highlight the importance of modeling observation patterns as structured signals in clinical time series prediction.

The classical $k$-means clustering cannot be directly used to incomplete data, and existing $k$-means-based clustering for missing data primarily focus on improving the practical accuracy of clustering, whereas most of them lack theoretical guarantees in the asymptotic sense. In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of $k$-means clustering in the presence of missing data. We first establish the $\sqrt{n}$-excess risk bound and prove the consistency of the estimated cluster centers under general missing mechanisms. For the Missing Completely at Random (MCAR) mechanism, we further derive the $\sqrt{n}$-convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the estimated cluster centers. Moreover, we study in what cases the cluster centers estimated by incomplete data converge to the true cluster centers of original fully observed data, and give a sufficient condition about the missing probability and the separation among true clusters. These results provide a theoretical guarantee for missing-data-$k$-means. Notably, our analysis reveal that under MCAR mechanism, both achieving the $\sqrt{n}$-rate and converging to the true cluster centers require $k$ true centers to be distinct in every dimension, highlighting the significant challenges of application in high-dimensional regimes. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations on synthetic incomplete datasets to support our theoretical analysis results.

In offline Reinforcement Learning, immediate rewards in logged batch data are often unobserved due to sparse or irregular record-keeping, or censored beyond certain reward values. This issue arises in practical settings, including health care and marketing. We investigate off-policy evaluation (OPE) in finite-horizon Markov decision processes when rewards are missing not at random (MNAR), which breaks ignorability and induces selection bias even after conditioning on states and actions. To address this, we formalize a reward-dependent propensity model and use future states as shadow variables to identify the full-data conditional mean reward. We further introduce a bridge function that recovers the conditional mean reward without explicitly modeling the MNAR mechanism, and estimate it via a min-max procedure to avoid double sampling. Building upon these identification results, we propose an Fitted-Q-Evaluation-style estimator that propagates the recovered rewards while allowing target policies to depend on past missingness indicators. Finally, we establish consistency and finite-sample error bounds for our OPE estimator, and show through experiments the strong performance of our method compared to existing methods on simulated and MIMIC-III Sepsis data.

Laboratory tests in electronic health records are collected irregularly, and the absence of a test order can be as informative as the measurement itself. Such missingness reflects clinicians' decisions and patient physiology, making it important to model it directly rather than treat it as a preprocessing artifact. Here we present a diffusion-based approach for generating clinical time series that jointly models laboratory values and their observation patterns using the public Data Analytics Challenge on Missing Data Imputation (DACMI) benchmark derived from MIMIC-III. To preserve realistic sampling, we align chart times into 4-hour intervals and segment admissions into 7-day windows, producing trajectories that pair each lab value with a corresponding observation indicator. Standard transformations and normalization are applied to stabilize training. Our method extends the TimeDiff framework to learn continuous lab values and discrete missingness patterns through complementary diffusion objectives. Experiments show that the generated data closely match real patient trajectories across individual lab distributions and joint value-missingness embeddings, demonstrating that diffusion models can capture clinically meaningful dependencies between patient physiology and clinicians' testing behavior under MNAR-like (missing-not-at-random) missingness. These preliminary results indicate that our model can serve as an initial component toward developing clinical foundation models. By producing synthetic priors that preserve key physiology-missingness relationships, this work motivates the subsequent training of Prior-Data Fitted Networks capable of leveraging informative missingness, which we will investigate in the extended work.

Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

Missing value imputation is a fundamental task in machine learning, with most existing methods assuming that all missing entries correspond to unobserved regular values. In many real-world datasets, however, missingness may arise from two distinct sources: some entries are meaningfully missing (intrinsically absent and semantically valid), while others are missing due to the observation process and should be imputed. We formalize this distinction as a selective imputation problem, where the goal is to jointly infer which missing entries should be preserved and which should be recovered. To address this challenge, we propose Diff-Joint, a diffusion-based framework that jointly models tabular data together with a latent missingness mask. The method alternates between conditional sampling and uncertainty-aware aggregation to iteratively refine both imputed values and missingness labels. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Diff-Joint effectively identifies meaningfully missing entries while achieving competitive imputation accuracy and improved downstream task performance.

Standard IMVC evaluation retrains separate models for different missing-data configurations. We show that this paradigm obscures a fundamental vulnerability: missing rate alone is insufficient to characterize data incompleteness. Specifically, we show that protocols with identical nominal missing rates can differ by up to $50\times$ in their proportion of fully observed samples, inducing drastically different learning regimes. We formalize this phenomenon as incompleteness divergence, providing measures that capture structural disparities across missing-data protocols. We further prove that for a broad class of reconstruction-based objectives, learning becomes structurally ill-posed when the proportion of complete samples falls below a critical threshold, leading to near-random performance. To bypass this theoretical bound, we propose CRAFT (Complete-data Robust Attention-masked Fusion Transformer). CRAFT shifts the burden of robustness from the loss function to the architecture via two key properties: (i) per-sample independence, which removes reliance on complete-sample co-occurrence, and (ii) mask-aware variable-length fusion, which aggregates only observed views through attention masking. This design allows a single model, trained once on complete data, to generalize to diverse missing patterns at inference time without retraining. Extensive experiments on seven benchmarks show that CRAFT matches or outperforms per-configuration baselines while reducing training overhead by $8.8\times$, demonstrating that robustness to missing data can be achieved as an inherent architectural property. Code (CRAFT) and our imvc-audit toolkit are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CRAFT-BF80/ and https://anonymous.4open.science/r/imvc-audit-8263/.

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as prominent deep generative models; however, their application to tabular data remains challenging because their backbones assume fully specified inputs, whereas real-world tabular data often contain missing values. We propose AugMask, a plug-and-play training framework that adapts missing-unaware backbones to incomplete data by separating conditioning from supervision. AugMask 1) constructs numeric inputs via conditional stochastic augmentation using lightweight auxiliary models, and 2) applies denoising supervision only to observed coordinates. In effect, augmented missing entries serve as uncertain conditioning context rather than training targets. We connect this training rule to a Rao--Blackwellized objective and show that marginalizing missing entries yields a variance-weighted sensitivity penalty, discouraging over-reliance on uncertain completions. Across diverse datasets and missingness regimes, AugMask enables standard diffusion-based tabular generators to outperform specialized missing-aware baselines.

Approximately 10% of newborns require assistance to initiate breathing at birth, and around 5% need ventilation support. Fetal heart rate (FHR) monitoring plays a crucial role in assessing fetal well-being during prenatal care, enabling the detection of abnormal patterns and supporting timely obstetric interventions to mitigate fetal risks during labor. Applying artificial intelligence (AI) methods to analyze large datasets of continuous FHR monitoring episodes with diverse outcomes may offer novel insights into predicting the risk of needing breathing assistance or interventions. Recent advances in wearable FHR monitors have enabled continuous fetal monitoring without compromising maternal mobility. However, sensor displacement during maternal movement, as well as changes in fetal or maternal position, often lead to signal dropout, resulting in gaps in recorded FHR data. Such missing data limits the extraction of meaningful insights and complicates automated (AI-based) analysis. Traditional approaches to handling missing data, such as simple interpolation techniques, often fail to preserve the spectral characteristics of the signals. In this paper, we propose a masked transformer-based autoencoder approach to reconstruct missing FHR signals by capturing both local temporal and frequency components of the data. The proposed method demonstrates robustness across varying durations of missing data and can be used for signal inpainting and forecasting. The proposed approach can be applied retrospectively to research datasets to support the development of AI-based risk algorithms. In the future, the proposed method could be integrated into wearable FHR monitoring devices to achieve earlier and more robust risk detection.

Fraud detection models in payment networks train on chargeback labels that are systematically biased. Every label must survive three sequential gates: authorization (declined transactions generate no labels), issuer reporting (unreported fraud is invisible), and delay (pending chargebacks are missing at training time). Labels that do arrive may be corrupted by first-party misuse or issuer misclassification. A companion paper [arXiv:2605.27557] proved that these four impairments impose a minimax lower bound on detection performance. This paper asks: can that bound be achieved? We formalize the observation pipeline as a sequential missing-data problem with three propensity stages and a corruption layer, and construct the Sequential Triply Robust (STR) estimator. The STR corrects for all four impairments simultaneously and achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound -- no estimator can have lower asymptotic variance. It is sequentially triply robust: at each gate, consistency requires only that either the propensity model or the outcome regression is correctly specified, not both. We provide corruption correction via noise-rate-adjusted pseudo-labels, empirical Bayes shrinkage to stabilize inverse-propensity weights for small issuers, a plug-in variance estimator yielding valid confidence intervals, and a Bernstein concentration inequality for finite-sample guarantees. On the operational side, we derive the optimal training delay -- the maturity window that minimizes the sum of label-quality loss and model staleness -- and prove that the STR permits training on data that is days old rather than months old, decoupling model freshness from the chargeback maturity cycle. The STR provably dominates naive chargeback-based training in mean squared error for any sample size.

LLM-based agents for industrial asset operations show limited accuracy when reasoning over flat document stores. AssetOpsBench (KDD 2026) establishes that GPT-4 agents achieve 65% on 139 industrial maintenance scenarios, and compares LLM orchestration paradigms (Agent-As-Tool vs. Plan-Execute) on a fixed data layer. We ask the orthogonal question: how much does the data model behind the tools matter? We treat a typed knowledge graph as a grounding substrate and route each question by how it is best answered: (i) LLM-generated Cypher for structured retrieval, which lifts the same GPT-4 model from 65% to 82-83%; (ii) native graph and optimization primitives, with no LLM, reaching 99% on graph-answerable scenarios; and (iii) generation-augmented knowledge (GAK) for answers absent from the data -- the engine's agent materializes the missing facts as provenance-tagged graph nodes, then answers. A recurring theme is inverted LLM usage: we constrain the LLM to query generation or one-shot enrichment from a typed schema and let the graph execute deterministically. On the 88 real AssetOpsBench failure-mode scenarios the benchmark itself flags non-deterministic -- ten equipment types absent from the graph -- GAK lifts answerability from zero to 100% of equipment types and answers 81.8% of scenarios, every materialized fact tagged source:LLM-derived for auditability. We also contribute 40 graph-native scenarios. For structured operational domains the data layer -- not the LLM orchestration -- is the primary lever, and a typed knowledge graph serves as a grounding substrate between raw industrial data and LLM reasoning.

Integrating multimodal datasets in clinical oncology is frequently hindered by high dimensionality and blockwise missingness, where entire data sources are unavailable for specific patient subsets. Standard survival models often struggle with these gaps, leading to biased results or patient exclusion. We introduce Multimodality Stacking with Blockwise missing values (MSB), a late-fusion framework for survival analysis that independently models modality-specific features before aggregating predictions via a cross-validated stacking meta-learner. MSB was validated on the PIONeeR study (n=443 patients, 378 biomarkers across eight heterogeneous sources) to predict progression-free survival in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. MSB yielded higher predictive performance (C-index) than baseline algorithms. Improvements varied by baseline strength: linear models showed a 15.9% increase (p<0.001 for the Wilcoxon signed-rank test), random survival forests gained 5.4% (p=0.002), and gradient boosting methods improved by 2.1% (p=0.030). Beyond discrimination, MSB reduced the generalization gap (train-test difference in 5 folds cross-validation repeated 3 times: 0.055 vs 0.380 for linear models). Permutation importance analysis identified routine laboratory markers, clinical features, and PD-L1 expression as primary predictive drivers. Missing block indicators showed negligible importance, suggesting the model learned from biomarker values rather than data availability patterns. MSB provides a statistically validated framework for multimodal survival prediction with blockwise missingness. By enabling systematic biomarker evaluation without requiring complete data, MSB offers a practical tool for predictive modeling in biomedical research, pending external validation. Implementation is available at https://github.com/MohamedBoussena/MSB under Inria license.

Low-density EEG is more suitable for wearable and IoT-based brain sensing, but sparse electrode sampling often lacks sufficient spatial information to characterize cross-regional neural activity. EEG spatial super-resolution aims to recover dense-channel EEG from sparse recordings, yet remains challenging because channel missingness typically occurs at the whole-channel level, spatiotemporal dependencies over the full electrode layout are often underexplored, and the mapping from sparse to dense signals is inherently ambiguous. To address these issues, we propose TGSD, a topology-guided state-space diffusion framework for EEG spatial super-resolution. TGSD first employs a Hierarchical Spatial Prior Encoder to learn topology-aware priors over the complete electrode layout by integrating local geometric relationships with region-level contextual information. Based on these priors and sparse observations, a Conditional State-Space Diffusion Reconstructor progressively generates missing-channel signals through reverse diffusion, while alternating temporal and channel-wise state-space modeling captures long-range temporal dynamics and inter-channel dependencies in a unified framework. Experiments on the SEED and PhysioNet MM/I datasets show that TGSD consistently outperforms representative baselines under different super-resolution factors in both reconstruction fidelity and downstream classification performance. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of combining topology-aware spatial priors with conditional diffusion for enhancing practical low-density EEG sensing in wearable and IoT scenarios. The official implementation code is available at https://github.com/jtggz/TGSD.

Real-time cognitive load assessment from eye-tracking signals could enable adaptive human-centered AI in safety-critical applications such as driver vigilance monitoring or automated flight deck assistance, yet two challenges persist: handling frequent data missingness from blinks and tracking failures, and efficiently modeling long-range temporal dependencies. We propose MambaGaze (Bi-Mamba), a framework that addresses these challenges through (1)~XMD encoding, which augments raw features with observation masks and time-deltas to explicitly model data uncertainty, and (2)~bidirectional Mamba-2, which captures temporal dependencies with linear computational complexity. Experiments on CLARE and CL-Drive datasets under leave-one-subject-out evaluation show that MambaGaze achieves 77.1% accuracy and 59.2% macro-F1 on CLARE, and 69.4% accuracy and 51.5% macro-F1 on CL-Drive, attaining the highest average LOSO macro-F1 (55.3%) across all ten compared models. Input-stream ablation indicates that log-scaled time-deltas are the strongest single channel in our setting, and combining all three XMD streams provides consistent gains of 5--20,pp macro-F1. Edge deployment benchmarks on three NVIDIA Jetson Orin platforms show real-time inference at 27--36,FPS with power consumption below 6.6,W, supporting feasibility for embedded cognitive load monitoring.

Estimating forest aboveground biomass (AGB) from Earth observation combines two structurally incompatible label sources: spaceborne lidar provides canopy structure at millions of locations but no biomass estimate, and ground-based plots provide biomass at thousands of biased locations but no metrics of structure. No single training sample carries labels for all target variables, plot labels are missing not at random (MNAR), and biomass is linked to the structural variables by known but biome-specific allometric laws. We formalise this as multi-task dense regression under heterogeneous disjoint partial supervision with MNAR labels and inter-task physical constraints, and propose StruMPL to address it jointly. A shared encoder feeds per-variable regression, imputation, and propensity heads for spatial MNAR correction, and a learnable physics module that evaluates the inter-task constraint on the model's own predictions at every pixel. The supervised loss uses an Augmented IPW (AIPW) pseudo-outcome with stop-gradients on the propensity and on the imputation baseline; we show analytically and empirically that both are necessary for joint optimisation to recover IPW-weighted stationary points while keeping the loss bounded. On two ecologically distinct biomes, StruMPL outperforms ablation variants and the closest published method on AGB RMSE and bias, with a stratified analysis showing AIPW reduces high-AGB bias by ~54%.

Stochastic gradient methods are central to modern large-scale learning, but their use with incomplete covariates remains delicate since imputation schemes generally introduce systematic gradient biases, as shown for linear models. In this work, we prove that all parametric models exhibit similar gradient bias for various imputation procedures and characterize exactly the dependence on the missingness ratio vector $p$, with $O(\|p\|)$ as the leading term. We exploit this analysis to propose a simple debiasing procedure for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with missing values based on Richardson extrapolation, which leverages the exact expression of the gradient bias. The key idea is to \emph{deliberately add missingness}: from an already incomplete observation, we generate a further-thinned version at a higher, controlled missingness level, and combine the two resulting stochastic gradients to cancel the leading bias term. We prove that one Richardson step reduces the gradient bias from $O(\|p\|)$ to $O(\|p\|^2)$ under several missingness scenarios. Our proposed method is computationally efficient, model-agnostic and applies to any parametric loss whose stochastic gradient can be computed after imputation. Furthermore, when missing indicators are independent, the population gradient bias is a multilinear polynomial in $p$ and depends only on population gradient errors induced by declaring a single coordinate missing. In this case, our method generalizes to a multi-step Richardson procedure which recursively cancels higher-order terms. Empirically, Richardson debiasing improves optimization and estimation across several generalized linear models and combines positively with widely used imputation procedures such as MICE. These results suggest that, somewhat counter-intuitively, adding controlled missingness on top of existing missing data can make stochastic learning from incomplete data more accurate.

Survey research faces mounting structural challenges: declining response rates, sample bias, block-wise missingness among at-risk respondents, and AI-assisted fraudulent completions in online panels. Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as a remedy, yet rigorous evaluations across the full survey workflow remain scarce, particularly in disaster contexts where data quality matters most. We present and evaluate a five-stage framework for LLM integration covering questionnaire design, sample selection, pilot testing, missing-data imputation, and post-collection analysis, using the 2024 Hurricane Milton preparedness survey of Florida residents (n=946) as a shared empirical testbed. We introduce a Protection Motivation Theory (PMT)-constrained co-occurrence knowledge graph and develop seven LLM configurations spanning zero-shot inference, retrieval-augmented baselines, and novel theory-informed variants. Our proposed Anchored Marginal Theory-Informed LLM (A-TLM) outperforms all three classical imputation baselines (IPW/MI, MICE+PMM, missForest) on RMSE under disaster-relevant block-wise MNAR conditions (S4 RMSE 1.439 vs. 1.496 for the next-best), while achieving near-zero signed bias (-0.121) where the random-forest imputer produces the largest absolute bias (-0.631). Organizing retrieval around PMT causal structure and integrating all evidence in a single model call outperforms unstructured retrieval and staged sequential inference (MAE 0.993 vs. 1.097 for standard RAG). We document that near-zero aggregate bias can mask opposing subgroup errors and propose subgroup-stratified bias auditing as a reporting standard. A retrieval-constrained knowledge-graph chatbot demonstrates that hallucination is architecturally manageable through grounded refusal.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), which infers reward functions from demonstrations, is a valuable tool for modeling and understanding decision-making behavior. Many variants of IRL have been developed to capture complexities of human decision-making, such as subjective beliefs, imperfect planning, and dynamic goals. However, an often-overlooked issue in real-world behavioral datasets is that the recorded data may be missing observations that were available to the original decision-maker. In use-inspired settings such as healthcare, this can make expert actions appear suboptimal, even when they were near-optimal given the information available at the time. As a result, the rewards learned by standard IRL may be misleading. In this paper, we identify the minimal perturbations to the recorded observations needed for the expert's actions to appear optimal. We develop a practical algorithm for this problem and demonstrate its utility for quantifying the possible extent of missing observations in behavioral datasets through extensive experiments on synthetic navigation tasks, a cancer treatment simulator, and ICU treatment data.

We introduce missingness-MDPs (miss-MDPs), a novel subclass of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that incorporates the theory of missing data. A miss-MDP is a POMDP whose observation function is a missingness function, specifying the probability that individual state features are missing (i.e., unobserved) at a time step. The literature distinguishes three canonical missingness types: missing (1) completely at random (MCAR), (2) at random (MAR), and (3) not at random (MNAR). Our planning problem is to compute near-optimal policies for a miss-MDP with an unknown missingness function, given a dataset of action-observation trajectories. Achieving such optimality guarantees for policies requires learning the missingness function from data, which is infeasible for general POMDPs. To overcome this challenge, we exploit the structural properties of different missingness types to derive probably approximately correct (PAC) algorithms for learning the missingness function. These algorithms yield an approximate but fully specified miss-MDP that we solve using off-the-shelf planning methods. We prove that, with high probability, the resulting policies are epsilon-optimal in the true miss-MDP. Empirical results confirm the theory and demonstrate superior performance of our approach over two model-free POMDP methods.

Automatic misinformation detection performs well when deception is visible in what an article explicitly states. However, some misinformation articles remain locally coherent and only become misleading once compared with contemporaneous reports that supply background facts the article omits. We study this omission-relevant setting and observe that current omission-aware approaches typically either attach retrieved context as auxiliary evidence or infer a categorical omission signal, leaving the specific missing fact implicit. We propose \emph{Latent Causal Void} (LCV), a retrieval-guided detector that explicitly reconstructs the missing fact for each target sentence and uses it as a textual cross-source relation in graph reasoning. Concretely, LCV retrieves temporally aligned context articles, asks a frozen instruction-tuned large language model to generate a short missing-context description for each sentence--article pair, and feeds the resulting relation text into a heterograph over target sentences and context articles. On the bilingual benchmark of Sheng et al., LCV improves over the strongest omission-aware baseline by $2.56$ and $2.84$ macro-F1 points on the English and Chinese splits, respectively. The results indicate that modeling the missing cross-source fact itself, rather than only attaching retrieved evidence or predicting an omission signal, is a useful representation for omission-aware misinformation detection.

Missing values are routinely treated as defects to be eliminated through deletion or imputation prior to machine learning. In many applied domains, however, missingness itself carries information, reflecting experimental constraints, measurement choices, or systematic mechanisms tied to the data-generating process. Eliminating or masking this structure can distort class boundaries, introduce bias, and reduce generalisability; particularly in imbalanced datasets where minority classes are already under-represented. OverNaN is a lightweight, NaN-aware oversampling framework designed to address class imbalance without erasing missingness structure. It extends common synthetic oversampling methods to operate directly on incomplete feature vectors, allowing missing values to be preserved, propagated, or selectively interpolated according to explicitly defined strategies. Rather than repairing missing data, OverNaN treats missingness as part of the feature space over which synthetic samples are generated. This paper situates OverNaN within the broader landscape of imbalanced learning, missing-data handling, and NaN-tolerant algorithms. Using representative examples included with the software, we demonstrate that meaningful missingness can be retained during oversampling without introducing artificial certainty. OverNaN is intended for practitioners working with small, incomplete, and imbalanced datasets in scientific and engineering domains where missingness is unavoidable and often informative.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as automated evaluators of AI systems, including in high-stakes applications. In this role, LLMs are used to generate judgments about the quality, appropriateness, or even safety of model outputs. This approach is motivated by practical constraints. Expert human ratings are costly and difficult to scale, whereas LLM ratings can be produced quickly at low cost. However, current approaches to deploying LLM evaluators are ad hoc, typically limited to reporting agreement metrics between human and LLM judges as a justification for substitution of human ratings, and lack a formal basis for study design. This paper (1) shifts the role of the LLM judge from substitutive to auxiliary, and (2) formulates the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm as one of augmenting human evaluation through a two-stage sampling design, where LLM evaluations are measured for all observations at the first stage and human ratings are partially observed for a subsample at the second stage. We propose to use a doubly robust estimator from the missing data literature, which takes advantage of the robustness property against the prediction model, since the missingness model is known by design. Using the asymptotic variance of this estimator, we propose how sample sizes of human and LLM ratings can be determined to achieve a targeted level of power. We also show that a study can be efficiently designed by allocating more human ratings for types of evaluations where the predictability of LLM ratings is not high. To the best of our knowledge, there is very little guidance on how much human oversight should be retained when validating benchmarks.

Grammar-constrained generation is often combined with local vocabulary masking and speculative decoding, but the resulting sampling law is not the grammar-conditional distribution users usually intend. We show that any speculative decoder with local mask access, Leviathan rejection, and rollback soundness samples from the locally projected distribution $μ^{\mathrm{proj}}$ rather than the grammar-conditional distribution $μ^\star$. This extends the GAD impossibility result to speculative decoding; on Dyck grammars with Qwen3-8B, the total-variation gap can reach 0.996. We identify the future-validity function $Φ_t(y)=\Pr_p[\mathrm{valid\ completion}\mid y]$ as the missing correction statistic. The target distribution is a Doob transform of the base model with $h=Φ$, while local masking corresponds to setting $h$ to one. With exact $Φ$, our oracle decoder FVO-Spec samples exactly from $μ^\star$; with approximate $Φ$, we bound the resulting total-variation error. Because exact future validity is hard for general context-free grammars, we evaluate estimator hierarchies on tractable Dyck and finite JSON languages. OneStep reduces Dyck TV by 14% with under 1% throughput overhead, exact dynamic programming reduces it by 97%, and finite-language correction closes JSON gaps to numerical precision. All fidelity claims are scoped to enumerable grammars and token tries.

Order-Agnostic autoregressive models have demonstrated strong performance in deep generative modeling, yet their use in settings with incomplete data remains largely unexplored. In this work, we reinterpret them through the lens of missing data. First, we show that their standard training procedure on fully observed data implicitly performs imputation under a missing completely at random mechanism, resulting in robust out-of-sample imputation performance in settings with high missingness. Second, we introduce the first principled framework for training them directly on incomplete datasets under general missingness mechanisms. Third, we leverage their amortized conditional density estimation to perform active information acquisition, i.e., sequentially selecting the most informative missing variables for downstream prediction or inference. Across a suite of real-world benchmarks, our Missingness-Aware Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Model (MO-ARM) consistently outperforms established imputation baselines.

Air-quality forecasting models are commonly evaluated on regional, preprocessed, and normalized datasets, where missing observations are removed or artificially completed. Such protocols simplify comparison but hide the conditions that dominate real monitoring networks: uneven global coverage, structured missingness, heterogeneous pollutant scales, and deployment cost. We introduce \textbf{AirQualityBench}, a global multi-pollutant benchmark designed to evaluate forecasting models under these realistic conditions. The benchmark contains hourly observations from 3,720 monitoring stations over 2021--2025, covers six major pollutants, and preserves provider-native observation masks. Rather than imputing a dense data tensor, AirQualityBench exposes missingness as part of the forecasting problem and reports errors on valid future observations after inverse transformation to physical concentration scales. Evaluating representative spatio-temporal models under this unified protocol shows that strong performance on sanitized datasets does not reliably transfer to global, fragmented monitoring streams. AirQualityBench therefore serves as a realistic testbed for scalable, mask-aware, and physically interpretable air-quality forecasting. All benchmark data, code, evaluation scripts, and baseline implementations are available at \href{https://github.com/Star-Learning/AirQualityBench}{GitHub}.

Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses. These biases affect key parameters such as variance, prevalence, correlation, slope, and explained variance. The root cause is that imputed values optimized for MSE are averages, which reduce the natural variability in the data. This paper demonstrates that adding noise to imputed values can effectively eliminate these biases. The required noise level is proportional to the MSE. Using a toy example in a multivariate normal setting, we compare two methods: predictive imputation, which minimizes MSE, and stochastic imputation, which incorporates random noise. Simulation results show that predictive methods systematically introduce bias, while stochastic methods preserve the data's natural variability and produce unbiased estimates. We also evaluate three popular imputation tools -- missForest, softImpute, and mice -- and observe consistent biases in predictive methods. These findings highlight that MSE is an inadequate measure of imputation quality, as it prioritizes accuracy over variability. Incorporating noise into imputation methods is essential to prevent biases and ensure valid downstream analyses, underscoring the importance of stochastic approaches for handling incomplete data.

Missing data imputation remains a fundamental challenge in modern data science, especially when uncertainty quantification is essential. In this work, we propose MissBGM, an AI-powered missing data imputation method via Bayesian generative modeling that bridges the expressive flexibility of neural networks with the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference. Unlike existing methods that often focus on point estimates or treat the missingness mechanism implicitly, MissBGM explicitly and jointly models the data-generating and missingness mechanisms, providing principled posterior uncertainty over imputations rather than a single point estimate. We develop a stochastic optimization framework with alternating updates among missing values, model parameters, and latent variables until convergence. Our theoretical analysis shows that estimates of missing values from MissBGM converge consistently under mild assumptions. Empirically, we demonstrate that MissBGM achieves superior performance over traditional imputers and recent neural network-based methods across extensive experimental settings. These results establish MissBGM as a principled and scalable solution for modern missing data imputation. The code for MissBGM is open sourced at https://github.com/liuq-lab/MissBGM.

Multimodal Emotion Recognition (MER) is critical for interpreting real-world interactions. While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLM) have shown promise in MER, their internal decision-making mechanisms under modality conflict and missingness remain largely underexplored. In this paper, to systematically investigate these behaviors, we introduce EmoMM, a comprehensive benchmark featuring modality-aligned, conflict, and missing subsets. Through extensive evaluation, we uncover a Video Contribution Collapse (VCC) phenomenon, where MLLM marginalize video evidence due to high token redundancy and modality preferences. To address this, we propose Conflict-aware Head-level Attention Steering (CHASE), a lightweight mechanism that detects modality conflicts and performs inference-time attention steering, effectively mitigating decision bias without retraining the backbone. Experimental results demonstrate that CHASE consistently improves performance across various settings, significantly enhancing the reliability of MLLM in complex affective scenarios.

Partially-observed time series (POTS) is ubiquitous in real-world applications, yet most existing toolchains separate missing-value handling from downstream learning, which limits reproducibility and overall performance. This tutorial introduces PyPOTS, an open-source Python ecosystem for end-to-end data mining and machine learning on POTS. We present practical workflows spanning missingness simulation, data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation across core tasks, including imputation, forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection. The tutorial consists of two parts: Part I emphasizes hands-on application for practitioners through unified APIs and benchmark-oriented experiments. Part II targets developers and researchers, focusing on extending PyPOTS with custom models, domain-specific constraints, and contribution-ready engineering practices. Participants will gain both conceptual understanding and implementation experience for building robust, transparent, and reusable POTS pipelines in research and production settings. PyPOTS is publicly available at https://github.com/WenjieDu/PyPOTS

Multimodal Federated Learning (MMFL) enables privacy-preserving collaborative training, but real-world clinical applications often suffer from within-modality missingness caused by sensor intermittency or irregular sampling. Existing methods implicitly represent unobserved data via architectural alignment or missing embeddings, often failing to recover the true distribution and yielding sub-optimal performance. We propose CondI, a federated framework explicitly addressing this missingness using conditional diffusion models. CondI employs a two-phase training pipeline: first, imputing unobserved temporal components using available multimodal context and conditional embeddings; second, optimizing modality-specific extractors and joint embedding spaces. During inference, imputed raw data pass through trained extractors to generate robust features, providing a holistic representation for downstream tasks. Explicit data imputation ensures models operate on complete semantic structures, significantly enhancing resilience against severe data incompleteness. Experiments on three clinical datasets (PTB-XL, SLEEP-EDF, MIMIC-IV) demonstrate CondI achieves comparable results to state-of-the-art baselines. Code: https://github.com/ZhengWugeng/CondI

Multimodal clinical records contain structured measurements and clinical notes recorded over time, offering rich temporal information about the evolution of patient health. Yet these observations are sparse, and whether they are recorded depends on the patient's latent condition. Observation patterns also differ across modalities, as structured measurements and clinical notes arise under distinct recording processes. While prior work has developed methods that accommodate missingness in clinical time series, how to extract and use the information carried by the observation process itself remains underexplored. We therefore propose a patient representation learning framework for multimodal clinical time series that explicitly leverages informative missingness. The framework combines (1) a multimodal encoder that captures signals from structured and textual data together with their observation patterns, (2) a Bayesian filtering module that updates a latent patient state over time from observed multimodal signals, and (3) downstream modules for offline treatment policy learning and patient outcome prediction based on the learned patient state. We evaluate the framework on ICU sepsis cohorts from MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV, and eICU. It improves both offline treatment policy learning and adverse outcome prediction, achieving FQE 0.679 versus 0.528 for clinician behavior and AUROC 0.886 for post-72-hour mortality prediction on MIMIC-III.

We study a classification problem with three key challenges: pervasive informative missingness, the integration of partial prior expert knowledge into the learning process, and the need for interpretable decision rules. We propose a framework that encodes prior knowledge through an expert-guided class-conditional model for one or more classes, and use this model to construct a small set of interpretable goodness-of-fit features. The features quantify how well the observed data agree with the expert model, isolating the contributions of different aspects of the data, including both observed and missing components. These features are combined with a few transparent auxiliary summaries in a simple discriminative classifier, resulting in a decision rule that is easy to inspect and justify. We develop and apply the framework in the context of seismic monitoring used to assess compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. We show that the method has strong potential as a transparent screening tool, reducing workload for expert analysts. A simulation designed to isolate the contribution of the proposed framework shows that this interpretable expert-guided method can even outperform strong standard machine-learning classifiers, particularly when training samples are small.

Privacy preservation is critical in many high-stakes domains such as medicine and finance, where sensitive data must be analyzed without compromising individual confidentiality. At the same time, these applications often involve datasets with inherent missing values due to non-response or data corruption for example. Missing data is traditionally analyzed through its impact on statistical efficiency and model performance. In fact, it reduces the information available to analysts and can degrade the final utility of the model. In this work, we take an alternative approach and study missing data through the lens of privacy preservation. Intuitively, when features are missing, less information is revealed about individuals, suggesting that data missingness could inherently enhance privacy. We formalize this intuition within a novel framework that integrates missing data into differential privacy. In essence, our approach accounts for the de facto missingness in the data to refine existing privacy guarantees without modifying the underlying mechanism. Using this framework, we show for the first time that missing data can induce inherent privacy amplification for differentially private algorithms, highlighting a previously overlooked interaction between missing data and formal privacy guarantees..

Representational similarity analysis and related methods compare the internal geometries of neural networks, but they measure only alignment between spaces, leaving a blind spot -- whether a representation's structure is reliably recoverable, not merely similar. We introduce geometric stability, a distinct axis, and \textit{Shesha}, a metric that quantifies it from a single representation by correlating dissimilarity matrices built from complementary random halves of the feature dimensions. Unlike CKA and Procrustes distance, Shesha is provably non-invariant to orthogonal rotations of the feature basis. This is by design: the basis is privileged for learned models, since probes, patching, and steering act on coordinates, and a rotation-invariant metric cannot see whether the targeted structure survives them. A double dissociation isolates the mechanism -- removing the top principal component collapses CKA while Shesha holds, whereas rotating a representation into its eigenbasis, which preserves the spectrum and CKA exactly, collapses Shesha. Across 2,463 encoder configurations in seven domains, the metrics are redundant under geometry-preserving transforms and anti-correlate under compression ($ρ=-0.47$). Across 170 vision models spanning 6 clean and 38 corruption-shifted datasets, DINOv2 ranks first or second in transferability on three of six clean datasets yet bottom-quartile in stability on five, an isolated dissociation rather than a trade-off.

Traffic forecasting systems rely on fixed sensor networks that frequently exhibit contiguous blackouts. Such outages are usually treated as ignorable missingness, although dropout can depend on unobserved traffic conditions. We study this possibility with an MNAR-aware latent state-space model that combines linear traffic dynamics with a Bernoulli missingness channel whose probability depends on the latent state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) followed by Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoothing, and parameters are learned by approximate EM. We evaluate Seattle using a leakage-free, month-balanced set of 300 unique all-horizon-aligned blackout windows. On this benchmark, MAR-LDS attains 4.264 mph pooled imputation RMSE and MNAR-LDS improves it to 4.177 (difference -0.086); the detector-cluster bootstrap 95% interval is [-0.182,-0.002]. A causal one-step predicted latent representation raises missingness ROC-AUC from 0.685 using observed-only features to 0.784. We further test whether this compact probabilistic model remains competitive with substantially larger neural time-series architectures under the identical masked-imputation protocol. MNAR-LDS ranks second in pooled RMSE and outperforms 8 of 9 evaluated neural architectures; it is within 1.22% of the best neural result, with no statistically resolved difference under detector-cluster bootstrap, while achieving lower P95 error, lower long-blackout RMSE, and orders of magnitude fewer stored scalar entries. MNAR roughly doubles end-to-end training time relative to MAR and increases EKF+RTS inference time by 41%, making the accuracy-complexity-cost tradeoff explicit. Controlled state-dependent blackouts further show larger gains when dropout is genuinely informative, including a 6.34% reduction in 30-minute forecast RMSE relative to MAR.

We study latent geometry as an explicit component of representation quality in data-scarce learning. For an encoder (φ), we define (Q_{β,γ}(φ)=I(φ(X);Y)-β\mathcal C(φ)-γd_{\mathrm{int}}(φ)), combining task-relevant information with penalties for curvature and intrinsic latent dimension. Thus geometry becomes part of the bottleneck criterion, not only a post hoc diagnostic. Under smooth-manifold, loss-transfer, and estimator-concentration assumptions, we derive non-asymptotic low-label generalization bounds where intrinsic dimension and covering complexity enter explicitly. We characterize the information--geometry frontier and prove empirical-surrogate consistency. The analysis links encoder geometry to learning through latent covering numbers, loss-class entropy, and uniform deviation. We instantiate the theory as \texttt{V-GIB}, adding curvature and dimension penalties to variational bottleneck training. Real low-label benchmarks compare \texttt{V-GIB} with ERM, VIB, and ablations across (1%)--(20%) label fractions. Results show improved performance and reduced geometric complexity in several regimes, especially FashionMNIST and CIFAR-10, while confirming that no fixed regularizer is universally dominant.

We study multivariate linear regression under Gaussian covariates in two settings, where data may be erased or corrupted by an adversary under a coordinate-wise budget. In the incomplete data setting, an adversary may inspect the dataset and delete entries in up to an $η$-fraction of samples per coordinate; a strong form of the Missing Not At Random model. In the corrupted data setting, the adversary instead replaces values arbitrarily, and the corruption locations are unknown to the learner. Despite substantial work on missing data, linear regression under such adversarial missingness remains poorly understood, even information-theoretically. Unlike the clean setting, where estimation error vanishes with more samples, here the optimal error remains a positive function of the problem parameters. Our main contribution is to characterize this error up to constant factors across essentially the entire parameter range. Specifically, we establish novel information-theoretic lower bounds on the achievable error that match the error of (computationally efficient) algorithms. A key implication is that, perhaps surprisingly, the optimal error in the missing data setting matches that in the corruption setting-so knowing the corruption locations offers no general advantage.

Handling missing data in time series classification remains a significant challenge in various domains. Traditional methods often rely on imputation, which may introduce bias or fail to capture the underlying temporal dynamics. In this paper, we propose TANDEM (Temporal Attention-guided Neural Differential Equations for Missingness), an attention-guided neural differential equation framework that effectively classifies time series data with missing values. Our approach integrates raw observation, interpolated control path, and continuous latent dynamics through a novel attention mechanism, allowing the model to focus on the most informative aspects of the data. We evaluate TANDEM on 30 benchmark datasets and a real-world medical dataset, demonstrating its superiority over existing state-of-the-art methods. Our framework not only improves classification accuracy but also provides insights into the handling of missing data, making it a valuable tool in practice.

Fairness audits are a key component of responsible machine-learning deployment. Yet, audit-recommendation reliability under incomplete protected-label access is still poorly understood. In this work, we focused on protected-label missingness in fairness mitigation audits. We introduced a seed-calibrated stress test to separate missingness effects from seed-to-seed movement already present under complete labels. Across ACS/Folktables tasks, missingness settings that retain some protected labels usually do not move selected mitigation methods beyond a complete-label seed-to-seed baseline. At $0$ protected-label access, candidates collapse to an empirical-risk-minimization baseline and deterministic tie-breaking rather than revealing a broad missingness effect. We also found that threshold optimization can turn fairness gains on a single protected axis into intersectional harm above a seed baseline, and this threshold-optimizer finding persists under random-forest validation. Overall, our results highlight that protected-label missingness should be reported with seed-null calibration, candidate-set context, and intersectional consequences before it is treated as evidence of audit fragility.

We pose uncertainty quantification and exploration in online decision-making as a problem of training and generation from an autoregressive sequence model, an area experiencing rapid innovation. Our approach rests on viewing uncertainty as arising from missing future outcomes that could be revealed through action choices, rather than from unobservable latent parameters of the environment. This reformulation aligns naturally with modern machine learning capabilities: we can i) train generative models through next-outcome prediction rather than fit explicit priors, ii) assess uncertainty through autoregressive generation rather than sampling latent parameters from posteriors, and iii) adapt to new information by extending the sequence model's context rather than explicit posterior updating. Our main theoretical result establishes a reduction from online decision-making to offline next-outcome prediction: Bayesian regret is controlled directly by the sequence model's offline prediction loss, without requiring an explicit latent-variable posterior. Experiments, including a semi-synthetic news recommendation task, show that autoregressive generation produces calibrated epistemic uncertainty and enables effective exploration by using article text as prior information to focus exploration on resolving remaining uncertainties.