Sequential Decision Making

AI alignment and participatory design motivate a new democratic design problem: how to collectively choose a decision rule to use repeatedly. We study this problem for linear ranking rules, which repeatedly rank items $x_j$ within batches $X=(x_1,\dots,x_m)\in(\mathbb{R}^d)^m$, where each item's ranking is dictated by its score $\langle θ^*,x_j\rangle$ according to a fixed scoring vector $θ^*$. Given voters' preferred scoring vectors $θ^{(1)},\dots,θ^{(n)}$ and their population fractions $α^{(1)},\dots,α^{(n)}$, we ask how to choose a collective vector $θ^*$ satisfying individual proportionality (IP): every voter type $i$ should agree with the resulting rankings to an $α^{(i)}$-proportional degree, either on average over time (long-run IP) or even within each batch (per-batch IP). The default rule, the arithmetic mean of the $θ^{(i)}$, has been shown to be severely majoritarian; more generally, it is not clear that any fixed linear rule can balance many voters' disparate opinions. Our main result is that, surprisingly, there is a simple rule that does satisfy long-run IP: the angular mean, the spherical analog of the arithmetic mean. We then show that exact per-batch IP is impossible for fixed linear rules, but that the gap between per-batch and long-run IP shrinks quickly with batch size. Experiments on three real-world preference datasets show that all rules perform similarly when voters' preferences are homogeneous, while the angular mean substantially improves proportionality in high-disagreement regimes.

We study a sequential resource allocation problem motivated by adaptive network recruitment, in which a limited budget of identical resources must be allocated over multiple rounds to individuals with stochastic referral capacity. Successful referrals endogenously generate future decision opportunities while allocating additional resources to an individual exhibits diminishing returns. We first show that the single-round allocation problem admits an exact greedy solution based on marginal survival probabilities. In the multi-round setting, the resulting Bellman recursion is intractable due to the stochastic, high-dimensional evolution of the frontier. To address this, we introduce a population-level surrogate value function that depends only on the remaining budget and frontier size. This surrogate enables an exact dynamic program via truncated probability generating functions, yielding a planning algorithm with polynomial complexity in the total budget. We further analyze robustness under model misspecification, proving a multi-round error bound that decomposes into a tight single-round frontier error and a population-level transition error. Finally, we evaluate our method on real-world inspired recruitment scenarios.

Hybrid mechanistic models, physical priors with learned residuals, promise to reduce the data required for good decisions, but have no computable criterion to test this. We characterize the value of mechanistic priors in sequential decision-making within both asymptotic and burn-in regimes. To formalize this, we introduce the mechanistic information of a model: the mutual information between the model's recommended policy $\hatπ$ and the true optimal policy $π^*$, bounded via a centered, occupancy-weighted bias. In the asymptotic regime (large $N$), matched bounds reveal that Bayesian regret scales with the residual entropy $H_{\mathrm{mech}}$, delivering a theoretical sample complexity reduction of $H(μ)/H_{\mathrm{mech}}$ compared to an uninformed baseline. We further provide a computable pre-trial model certificate. Complementarily, in the clinically relevant burn-in regime (small $N$), we establish a lower bound on the penalty incurred by confidently wrong priors. We demonstrate both the asymptotic and burn-in bounds on an illustrative in-silico 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) chemotherapy plant whose structure follows published FOLFOX pharmacokinetics. The hybrid prior reduces cumulative regret by $1.79\times$ relative to standard body-surface-area dosing and $1.85\times$ relative to an uninformed learner, and remains below both under every calibration bias tested. Finally, we show that priors sensitive to distribution shift can lose half of their mechanistic information under a small distribution shift, motivating physically grounded priors for safety-critical applications.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a strong capacity for in-context learning: Given labeled examples, they can generate good predictions without parameter updates. However, many interactive settings go beyond static prediction to online decision-making, in which effective behavior demands adaptation over long multi-turn horizons in response to feedback, and efficient algorithms in these domains must use compact representations of what they have learned. Recently, continuous transformer architectures with latent chain of thought have shown promise for offline iterative tasks such as directed graph-reachability. Motivated by this, we study whether continuous latent context tokens equip transformers to more effectively realize online learning. We give explicit constructions of constant-depth transformers that implement two foundational online decision-making procedures -- the weighted majority algorithm and $Q$-learning -- by storing their algorithmic state as linear combinations of feature embeddings, using a small number of latent context tokens. We further train a small GPT-2-style transformer with latent contexts using a multi-curriculum objective that does not directly supervise the latent states. On long synthetic online prediction sequences, this model outperforms larger and more complex LLMs, including Qwen-3-14B and DeepSeek-V3. Our results suggest that continuous latent contexts provide a simple and effective persistent state for transformers to implement online learning algorithms.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, yet their potential for sequential decision-making remains underexplored. In this paper, we study the ICL capabilities of LLMs in sequential decision-making settings, including Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), and Ambiguous POMDPs (APOMDPs). We fine-tune pretrained LLMs to perform few-shot decision-making directly from offline, oracle-labeled trajectories. Our framework enables flexible imitation of policies through supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Theoretically, we focus on linear MDPs and interpret a fine-tuned attention layer as implicitly estimating optimal Q-functions from in-context data. Building on this interpretation, we derive an end-to-end suboptimality bound for the induced policy that separates the in-context estimation error from the training-length bias. Empirically, across synthetic MDP, POMDP, and APOMDP settings, we find that fine-tuned LLMs achieve substantially smaller optimality gaps than in-context-only and random baselines, with especially large gains in longer-horizon, partially observed, and model-ambiguous environments. Together, these results show that supervised fine-tuning provides an effective route to endowing pretrained LLMs with sequential decision-making capabilities from offline data, which is an important advantage in domains such as healthcare where offline data are abundant.

Current research applying N-level Stackelberg Game to multi-agent systems often uses the default decision order of agents provided by the environment. However, this raises the question: does the order of agents necessarily affect the final equilibrium point of the game? To address this, we formally analyze the N-level Stackelberg Game, where changing the order in which agents make decisions typically leads to an overdetermined system. As a result, the equilibrium point shifts unless special structural conditions are satisfied. Based on this analysis, we propose the Hierarchical Priority Adjustment (HPA) method, which adjusts and selects the agents' decision order. At the upper level, an upper policy dynamically selects the optimal decision order of agents based on the current game state. At the lower level, agents execute strategies in the Spatio-Temporal Sequential Markov Game (STMG) according to the selected order. To coordinate learning across time scales, we employ a slow-fast update scheme with shared intrinsic rewards derived from the advantage function of the upper policy. Experimental results on high-precision control tasks, including multi-agent MuJoCo, show that HPA outperforms benchmark algorithms and robustly adapts to changing environments. These results highlight the crucial role of optimizing the agents' decision order in N-level Stackelberg Game.

Many real-world resource allocation systems, such as humanitarian logistics and vaccine distribution, must preposition limited supply across multiple locations before demand is realized while stockouts incur irreversible service losses. To study this, we introduce the Online Shared Supply Allocation (OSSA) problem, a stateful online model in which a central hub allocates a finite, unknown supply to multiple sites facing sequential demand under fixed-charge transportation costs and lost-sales penalties. Unlike classical make-to-stock or make-to-order inventory models, OSSA precludes backlogging and replenishment only hedges against future demand. To tackle OSSA, we propose a deterministic threshold-proportional policy GPA and prove that it achieves a $4/3$-approximation to the offline optimum up to an additive term independent of the total supply. We complement this with matching lower bounds showing that the $4/3$ ratio is tight and that the additive-error dependence is unavoidable, even for randomized algorithms that know the total supply upfront. Finally, we develop a learning-augmented extension to GPA that principally incorporates imperfect forecasts (e.g., from human experts or ML models) commonly available in practice, enabling us to exploit high-quality advice while being robust against arbitrary bad ones. Synthetic and real-world experiments show that GPA outperforms natural baselines with global supply is scarce.

In networks, effective dynamic treatment allocation requires deciding both whom to treat and also when, so as to amplify policy impact through spillovers. An early intervention at a well-connected node can trigger cascades that change which nodes are worth targeting in the next period. Existing treatment strategies under network interference are largely static while dynamic treatment frameworks typically ignore network structure altogether. We integrate these perspectives and propose Q-Ising, a three-stage pipeline that (i) estimates network adoption dynamics via a Bayesian dynamic Ising model from a single observed panel, (ii) augments treatment adoption histories with continuous posterior latent states, and (iii) learns a dynamic policy via offline reinforcement learning. The Bayesian mechanism enables uncertainty quantification over dynamic decisions, yielding posterior ensemble policies with interpretable spillover estimates. We provide a finite-sample regret upper bound that decomposes into standard offline-RL uncertainty, network abstraction error, and first stage error in Ising state estimation. We apply our method to data from Indian village microfinance networks and synthetic stochastic block models under simulated heterogeneous susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics and demonstrate that adaptive targeting outperforms static centrality benchmarks.

Regulatory approval of products in high-stakes domains such as drug development requires statistical evidence of safety and efficacy through large-scale randomized controlled trials. However, the high financial cost of these trials may deter developers who lack absolute certainty in their product's efficacy, ultimately stifling the development of `moonshot' products that could offer high social utility. To address this inefficiency, in this paper, we introduce a statistical protocol for experimentation where the product developer (the agent) conducts a randomized controlled trial sequentially and the regulator (the principal) partially subsidizes its cost. By modeling the protocol using a belief Markov decision process, we show that the agent's optimal strategy can be found efficiently using dynamic programming. Further, we show that the social utility is a piecewise linear and convex function over the subsidy level the principal selects, and thus the socially optimal subsidy can also be found efficiently using divide-and-conquer. Simulation experiments using publicly available data on antibiotic development and approval demonstrate that our statistical protocol can be used to increase social utility by more than 35$$\% relative to standard, non-sequential protocols.

We present a new operator-theoretic representation learning framework for offline reinforcement learning that recovers the directed temporal geometry of a controlled Markov process from hitting time observations. While prior art often produces symmetric distances or fails to satisfy the triangle inequality, our framework learns a Hilbert-space displacement geometry where expected hitting times are realized as linear functionals of latent displacements. We prove that this representation exists under latent linear closure and is uniquely identifiable up to a bounded linear isomorphism. For finite-dimensional implementations, we show that global hitting-time error is bounded by one-step transition error amplified by the environment's transient spectral radius. Furthermore, we provide finite-sample guarantees accounting for approximation, statistical complexity, and trajectory-label mismatch. Derived from this theory, we curate Isomorphic Embedding Learning (IEL) as a new goal-agnostic foundation policy learning algorithm that anchors a HILP-style consistency objective with explicit hitting-time regression to ensure that the learned geometry reflects actual decision-time progress. This asymmetric and compositional structure enables robust graph-based multi-stage planning for long-horizon navigation. Our experiments demonstrate that IEL improves the state of the art of learning foundation policy policies from offline maze locomotion data. Our code can be found on https://github.com/MagnusBoock/IEL

Algorithmic decision-making in high-stakes settings can have profound impacts on individuals and populations. While much prior work studies fairness in static settings, recent results show that enforcing static fairness constraints may exacerbate long-run disparities. Motivated by this tension, we study a stylized sequential selection problem in which a decision-maker repeatedly selects individuals, affecting both immediate utility and the population distribution over time. We introduce notions of group fairness for both the short and long term and theoretically analyze the trade-off between fairness and utility via the Price of Fairness (PoF). We characterize optimal and fair policies in the short term and show that the PoF can be large even when group distributions are nearly identical. In contrast, we show that long-term disparities can vanish under simple investment policies that achieve a low PoF. We also empirically validate these theoretical observations using both synthetic and real datasets.

In offline-to-online reinforcement learning (O2O-RL), policies are first safely trained offline using previously collected datasets and then further fine-tuned for tasks via limited online interactions. In a typical O2O-RL pipeline, candidate policies trained with offline RL are evaluated via either off-policy evaluation (OPE) or online evaluation (OE). The policy with the highest estimated value is then deployed and continually fine-tuned. However, this setup has two main issues. First, OPE can be unreliable, making it risky to deploy a policy based solely on those estimates, whereas OE may identify a viable policy with substantial online interaction, which could have been used for fine-tuning. Second--and more importantly--it is also often not possible to determine a priori whether a pretrained policy will improve with post-deployment fine-tuning, especially in non-stationary environments. As a result, procedures committing to a single deployed policy are impractical in many real-world settings. Moreover, a naive remedy that exhaustively fine-tunes all candidates would violate interaction budget constraints and is likewise infeasible. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive approach for policy selection and fine-tuning under online interaction budgets in O2O-RL. Following the standard pipeline, we first train a set of candidate policies with different offline RL algorithms and hyperparameters; we then perform OPE to obtain initial performance estimates. We next adaptively select and fine-tune the policies based on their predicted performance via an upper-confidence-bound approach thereby making efficient use of online interactions. We demonstrate that our approach improves upon O2O-RL baselines with various benchmarks.

Recent research has revived and amplified interest in algorithms for undiscounted average reward reinforcement learning in infinite-horizon, non-episodic (continuing) tasks. Semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs) are of particular interest. In SMDPs, discrete actions stochastically generate both rewards and durations, and the objective is to optimize the average reward rate. Existing algorithms approach this by optimizing the ratio of rewards to durations. However, when rewards and durations are non-stationary (in the infinite horizon), this can be incorrect. This paper presents a novel modified harmonic mean operator that correctly computes reward rates even under such conditions. This yields model-free learning algorithms that can work with SMDPs, while maintaining robustness to non-stationary reward and duration distributions over time. We prove theoretical properties of the modified harmonic mean operator, and empirically demonstrate its efficacy in comparison to existing algorithms.

Strategic classification studies the problem where self-interested individuals or agents manipulate their response to obtain favorable decision outcomes made by classifiers, typically turning to dishonest actions when they are less costly than genuine efforts. Prior works have demonstrated a fundamental inability to get out of this conundrum by only focusing on the design of a classifier. We note that prior work also heavily focuses on either one-shot settings or repeated interaction with the same classifier. Real-world decision making is often multi-stage, involving a sequence of potentially different classifiers as an agent progresses. This paper introduces a sequential, stochastic, multi-stage model of strategic classification, by capturing how agents adapt their behavior, through improvement actions (enhancing both observable features and true attributes) and gaming actions (enhancing only observable features), over multiple levels of classification with increasing difficulty as well as reward. For each level, we adopt a selective classifier that can abstain from making a prediction at low confidence. Consequently, a positive (resp. negative) outcome leads to promotion (resp. demotion) of the agent to the next higher (resp. lower) level, while abstention keeps the agent at the same level. We fully characterize the agent's optimal instantaneous action under selective classifiers and compare the long-term properties and utility of the agent repeatedly following an optimal myopic policy of either no-improvement (never choose the improvement action) or no-gaming (never choose the gaming action). We further examine design principles over the sequence of classifiers that yield higher long-term utility for the latter policy, thereby effectively incentivizing genuine effort in the long run.

We present two new classes of causal models of decision-making agents. Our approach is motivated by the needs of modeling the economics of computing systems. These systems are composed of subsystems and can exhibit endogenous limits on cognitive resources and value discounting. Structural Causal Decision Models (SCDMs) expand on Structural Causal Influence Models. Like SCIMs, they explicitly represent the causal relationships between model variables and the payoffs of agent decisions. Additionally, agent decisions can be constrained by their causal antecedents, and SCDMs can have open root variables for which no probability distribution or structural equation is given. We show that SCDMs have a well-defined and computationally useful property of composability. Building on SCDMs, we then define a Structural Causal Decision Process (SCDP) as a recurring SCDM with a discount variable. SCDPs benefit from the useful composition properties of SCDMs. Moreover, SCDPs are strictly more expressive than POMDPs because they do not assume rational belief formation. Indeed, an SCDP can endogenously model the memory-formation process, and is thus useful for modeling resource rational agents in dynamic settings. SCDPs are also capable of modeling variable discounting, a tool used widely in social scientific modeling. We pose that SCDPs are a useful framework for policy simulation for the digital economy, mechanism design for information systems, and digital twin modeling of cyberinfrastructure.

Chemotherapy dose optimization can be formulated as a dynamic treatment regime, requiring sequential decisions under uncertainty that must balance tumor suppression against toxicity. However, most reinforcement learning approaches assume full observability of the patient state, a condition rarely met in clinical practice. We investigate whether memory-augmented policies can improve chemotherapy control under partial observability. To this end, we employ a recurrent TD3-based approach with separate LSTM actor-critic networks and evaluate it on the AhnChemoEnv benchmark from DTR-Bench, considering both off-policy and on-policy recurrent architectures against feed-forward TD3 and Soft Actor-Critic. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic variability are held fixed to isolate hidden-state uncertainty and observation noise and to avoid confounding effects from inter-patient variability. Across ten random seeds, recurrence yields modest benefit under full observability but substantially stronger and more stable performance under partial observability, with more consistent tumor suppression and improved normal-cell preservation. These findings indicate that memory-based policies are particularly beneficial when clinically relevant state information is incomplete or noisy.

While Bellman equations for basic reach, avoid, and reach-avoid problems are well studied, the relationship between value optimality and policy optimality becomes subtle in the undiscounted infinite-horizon setting, particularly for more complicated tasks. Greedily maximizing the Q-function can produce policies that indefinitely defer task completion for reach-avoid problems, or equivalently, Until specifications, even when the value function is optimal. Building upon recent results decomposing the value function for temporal logic (TL) into a graph of constituent value functions, we construct non-Markovian policies based on state history that avoid this pathology and prove their optimality with respect to the quantitative robustness score for nested Until, Globally, and Globally-Until specifications. We further show how the Q function can serve as a safety filter for complex TL specifications, extending prior results beyond simple avoid or reach-avoid tasks.

Given the rapidly growing capabilities of vision-language models (VLMs), extending them to interactive decision-making tasks such as video games has emerged as a promising frontier. However, existing approaches either rely on large-scale supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on human trajectories or apply reinforcement learning (RL) only in relatively short-horizon settings (typically around 20--30 turns). In this work, we study RL-based training of VLMs for long-horizon decision-making in Super Mario Land, a visually grounded environment requiring 100+ turns of interaction with coordinated perception, reasoning, and action. We begin with a systematic investigation of key algorithmic components and propose an adapted variant of PPO with a lightweight turn-level critic, which substantially improves training stability and sample efficiency over critic-free methods such as GRPO and Reinforce++. We further show that pretrained VLMs provide strong action priors, significantly improving sample efficiency during RL training and reducing the need for manual design choices such as action engineering, compared to classical deep RL trained from scratch. Building on these insights, we introduce Odysseus, an open training framework for VLM agents, achieving substantial gains across multiple levels of the game and at least 3 times average game progresses than frontier models. Moreover, the trained models exhibit consistent improvements under both in-game and cross-game generalization settings, while maintaining general-domain capabilities. Overall, our results identify key ingredients for making RL stable and effective in long-horizon, multi-modal settings, and provide practical guidance for developing VLMs as embodied agents.

Language models are saturating benchmarks for procedural tasks with narrow objectives. But they are increasingly being deployed in long-horizon, non-stationary environments with open-ended goals. In this paper we introduce KellyBench, an environment for evaluating sequential decision-making in sports betting markets. Agents are placed in a sequential simulation of the 2023-24 English Premier League season and tasked with maximising their long-term bankroll growth. They are given detailed historical data, including advanced statistics, lineups, and public odds. To succeed they must build machine learning models, identify edge in public markets, and adapt as the environment changes over time. We find that all frontier models evaluated lose money on average over the course of the season for five seeds. The best performing model achieves an average return of -8%, and many models experiencing ruin across seeds. To judge strategy sophistication, we use a human expert rubric to grade each model and find their approaches to be unsophisticated compared to human baselines; Claude Opus 4.6 achieves a rubric score of 26.5%, which means there is significant room for improvement. KellyBench is available as an open-access API endpoint at https://openreward.ai/GeneralReasoning/KellyBench.

Electric truck operations require routing decisions that remain feasible under limited battery range, long charging times, travel and energy consumption, and competition for shared charging infrastructure. These features make electric truck routing a coupled logistics and energy problem, limiting the practicality of heuristics-based methods and rendering them computationally infeasible at scale. This paper proposes a learning-based framework for the stochastic electric truck routing under charging constraints and operational uncertainty. The problem, solved by Reinforcement Learning, is formulated as an event-driven semi-Markov decision process with shared charging resources, stochastic travel and energy requirements, and realistic nonlinear fast-charging behavior. To support learning in this setting, a graph-based representation of system state and feasible decisions is introduced, together with a rule-based action mask that restricts policies to operationally admissible actions; thus, improving training efficiency. Building on this formulation, an event-driven simulation environment is developed that supports both Reinforcement Learning and benchmarking against heuristic and mathematical programming baselines. Computational experiments across a range of fleet sizes show that the proposed learning-based algorithm consistently outperforms baselines and attains performance close to optimization benchmarks in many settings, while preserving high success rates under charging congestion and uncertainty.

We study sequential interventions under prerequisite constraints. In this setting, admissible intervention sequences are paths in the ideal lattice of a finite prerequisite poset rather than unconstrained action strings. We give an exact local-to-global theory of order sensitivity on this state space. First, we prove that any two admissible paths with the same endpoints differ by a finite sequence of elementary diamond swaps. Second, for edge-additive path valuations, we show that path-independence is equivalent to vanishing diamond curvature, yielding an endpoint potential with a canonical Möbius parameterization on the ideal lattice. Third, we prove that a local diamond field is induced by an edge-based path model if and only if it satisfies cube consistency, with uniqueness after fixing a reference-tree gauge. Under reduced-state longitudinal assumptions, supported reference paths identify reference-path scores, whereas local order effects require two-sided support of both orders on each diamond. These results yield exact planning consequences, including an order-insensitivity bound and dynamic programming on the truncated ideal lattice.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing. However, they exhibit some limitations, including a lack of reliability and transparency: they may hallucinate and fail to provide sources that support the generated output. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) was introduced to address such limitations in LLMs. One popular implementation, RAG-as-a-Service (RaaS), has shortcomings that hinder its adoption and accessibility. For instance, RaaS pricing is based on the number of submitted prompts, without considering whether the prompts are enriched by relevant chunks, i.e., text segments retrieved from a vector database, or the quality of the utilized chunks (i.e., their degree of relevance). This results in an opaque and less cost-effective payment model. We propose Chunk-as-a-Service (CaaS) as a transparent and cost-effective alternative. CaaS includes two variants: Open-Budget CaaS (OB-CaaS) and Limited-Budget CaaS (LB-CaaS), which is enabled by our ``Utility-Cost Online Selection Algorithm (UCOSA)''. UCOSA further extends the cost-effectiveness and the accessibility of the OB-CaaS variant by enriching, in an online manner, a subset of the submitted prompts based on budget constraints and utility-cost tradeoff. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed UCOSA compared to both offline and relevance-greedy selection baselines. In terms of the performance metric-the number of enriched prompts (NEP) multiplied by the Average Relevance (AR)-UCOSA outperforms random selection by approximately 52% and achieves around 75% of the performance of offline selection methods. Additionally, in terms of budget utilization, LB-CaaS and OB-CaaS achieve higher performance-to-budget ratios of 140% and 86%, respectively, compared to RaaS, indicating their superior efficiency.

We study online regression with the square loss in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space under a dynamic regret criterion. The learner is compared with a time-varying comparator sequence, and the bounds depend on its path length in the RKHS norm. The proposed method transfers the finite-dimensional discounted Vovk--Azoury--Warmuth approach of Jacobsen & Cutkosky (2024) to the RKHS setting by means of finite-dimensional subspace approximations. For a fixed subspace, we run a VAW-based ensemble of discounted VAW forecasters over a geometric grid of discount factors. The additional approximation error is controlled by the uniform projection error of kernel sections. We then introduce a general orthogonal truncation method: starting from a feature expansion of the kernel, we construct the associated RKHS by introducing an inner product that makes the feature functions orthonormal, and then use the spans of the first basis functions as finite-dimensional approximation spaces. The resulting subspace reduction is applied to several approximation schemes. Explicit feature expansions yield fast-regime bounds for Gaussian and analytic dot-product kernels. Mercer truncations provide a spectral approximation method and lead to dynamic regret bounds in fast and slow regimes, depending on the eigenvalue decay. Finally, we study subspaces spanned by kernel sections and apply this construction to Matérn kernels.

In many areas of medicine, security, and life sciences, we want to allocate limited resources to different sources in order to detect extreme values. In this paper, we study an efficient way to allocate these resources sequentially under limited feedback. While sequential design of experiments is well studied in bandit theory, the most commonly optimized property is the regret with respect to the maximum mean reward. However, in other problems such as network intrusion detection, we are interested in detecting the most extreme value output by the sources. Therefore, in our work we study extreme regret which measures the efficiency of an algorithm compared to the oracle policy selecting the source with the heaviest tail. We propose the ExtremeHunter algorithm, provide its analysis, and evaluate it empirically on synthetic and real-world experiments.

Fair machine learning (ML) methods help identify and mitigate the risk that algorithms encode or automate social injustices. Algorithmic approaches alone cannot resolve structural inequalities, but they can support socio-technical decision systems by surfacing discriminatory biases, clarifying trade-offs, and enabling governance. Although fairness is well studied in supervised learning, many real ML applications are online and sequential, with prior decisions informing future ones. Each decision is taken under uncertainty due to unobserved counterfactuals and finite samples, with dire consequences for under-represented groups, systematically under-observed due to historical exclusion and selective feedback. A bank cannot know whether a denied loan would have been repaid, and may have less data on marginalized populations. This paper introduces a taxonomy of uncertainty in sequential decision-making -- model, feedback, and prediction uncertainty -- providing shared vocabulary for assessing systems where uncertainty is unevenly distributed across groups. We formalize model and feedback uncertainty via counterfactual logic and reinforcement learning, and illustrate harms to decision makers (unrealized gains/losses) and subjects (compounding exclusion, reduced access) of policies that ignore the unobserved space. Algorithmic examples show it is possible to reduce outcome variance for disadvantaged groups while preserving institutional objectives (e.g. expected utility). Experiments on data simulated with varying bias show how unequal uncertainty and selective feedback produce disparities, and how uncertainty-aware exploration alters fairness metrics. The framework equips practitioners to diagnose, audit, and govern fairness risks. Where uncertainty drives unfairness rather than incidental noise, accounting for it is essential to fair and effective decision-making.

Robotic manipulation tasks exhibit varying memory requirements, ranging from Markovian tasks that require no memory to non-Markovian tasks that depend on historical information spanning single or multiple interaction trials. Surprisingly, simply extending observation histories of a visuomotor policy often leads to a significant performance drop due to distribution shift and overfitting. To address these issues, we propose Gated Memory Policy (GMP), a visuomotor policy that learns both when to recall memory and what to recall. To learn when to recall memory, GMP employs a learned memory gate mechanism that selectively activates history context only when necessary, improving robustness and reactivity. To learn what to recall efficiently, GMP introduces a lightweight cross-attention module that constructs effective latent memory representations. To further enhance robustness, GMP injects diffusion noise into historical actions, mitigating sensitivity to noisy or inaccurate histories during both training and inference. On our proposed non-Markovian benchmark MemMimic, GMP achieves a 30.1% average success rate improvement over long-history baselines, while maintaining competitive performance on Markovian tasks in RoboMimic. All code, data and in-the-wild deployment instructions are available on our project website https://gated-memory-policy.github.io/.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is moving increasingly beyond prediction to support decisions in complex, uncertain, and dynamic environments. This shift creates a natural intersection with operations research and management science (OR/MS), which has long provided methodological foundations for sequential decision making under uncertainty. At the same time, deep learning advances, including feedforward neural networks, recurrent architectures, transformers, large language models (LLMs), and deep reinforcement learning, have expanded data-driven modeling for large-scale decisions. This tutorial presents an OR/MS-centered perspective on deep learning for sequential decision making under uncertainty, bridging neural architectures and OR/MS approaches to decision making. Its premise: deep learning complements optimization rather than replacing it. Deep learning brings adaptability and scalable approximation, whereas OR/MS provides the mathematical rigor to represent constraints, recourse, uncertainty, and decision quality. The tutorial reviews key decision making foundations, connects them to the major neural architectures in modern AI, and organizes the field around three central themes: predict-then-optimize and decision-aware learning, learning-based decision generation under constraints for continuous and discrete problems with temporal coupling, and deep reinforcement learning for sequential and combinatorial decision making. Impact spans supply chains, service systems, healthcare and epidemic response, agriculture, energy, environmental sustainability, and autonomous operations. This tutorial frames these developments as part of a shift from predictive AI toward decision-capable AI, highlighting OR/MS's role in shaping the next generation of integrated learning--optimization systems.

We study finite-horizon linear-quadratic regulation of a scalar linear system with intermittent state feedback under an average communication-rate constraint. In this setting, the scheduling policy and controller are generally coupled through the dual effect: transmission decisions shape future estimation errors, while control actions influence the information available for scheduling. Existing treatments often recover tractability by restricting attention to symmetric scheduling policies, but the optimality of this restriction has remained unclear. We show that, for i.i.d. zero-mean disturbances, symmetric policies are optimal. Consequently, the communication-constrained LQR problem admits a separation structure. The optimal controller is a linear feedback law independent of the scheduling policy, while the optimal scheduler is obtained from a dynamic program. We further show that the optimal scheduling rule is a symmetric threshold policy in the accumulated disturbance since the most recent update.

This paper presents a novel autonomous robotic assembly framework for constructing stable structures without relying on predefined architectural blueprints. Instead of following fixed plans, construction tasks are defined through targets and obstacles, allowing the system to adapt more flexibly to environmental uncertainty and variations during the building process. A reinforcement learning (RL) policy, trained using deep Q-learning with successor features, serves as the decision-making component. As a proof of concept, we evaluate the approach on a benchmark of 15 2D robotic assembly tasks of discrete block construction. Experiments using a real-world closed-loop robotic setup demonstrate the feasibility of the method and its ability to handle construction noise. The results suggest that our framework offers a promising direction for more adaptable and robust robotic construction in real-world environments.

Motivated by the problem of assigning mediators to cases in the Kenyan judicial system, we study an online resource allocation problem where incoming tasks (cases) must be immediately assigned to available, capacity-constrained resources (mediators). The resources differ in their quality, which may need to be learned. In addition, resources can only be assigned to a subset of tasks that overlaps to varying degrees with the subset of tasks other resources can be assigned to. The objective is to maximize task completion while satisfying soft capacity constraints across all the resources. The scale of the real-world problem poses substantial challenges, since there are over 2000 mediators, and a multitude of combinations of geographic locations (87) and case types (12) that each mediator is qualified to work on. Together, these features-unknown quality of new resources (newly onboarded mediators), soft capacity constraints (due to the mandate to assign cases without delay), and high-dimensional state space-make existing scheduling and resource allocation algorithms either inapplicable or inefficient. We formalize the problem in a tractable manner, using a quadratic program formulation for assignment and a multi-agent bandit style framework for learning. We demonstrate the key properties and advantages of our new algorithm, SMaRT (Selecting Mediators that are Right for the Task), compared with baselines on some stylized instances of the mediator allocation problem. We then turn to considering its application to real-world data on cases and mediators from the Kenyan Judiciary. SMaRT outperforms baselines and allows for controlling the tradeoff between the strictness of the capacity constraints and overall case resolution rates, both in situations where mediator quality is known beforehand and when the problem is bandit-like in that learning is part of the problem definition.