Synthetic Benchmark

Momentum

1 paper in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 36

Oct 1, 2026cs.NE

TRACE: Tackling Real-World Resource Assignment Problems via Agentic Heuristic Design

Dynamic resource assignment, the real-time allocation of task streams to heterogeneous processing nodes, is the backbone of modern computing infrastructure. While learning-based schedulers excel in research, industrial deployments still rely on hand-written rules that operators can read, audit, and execute within tight latency budgets. LLM-based Automatic Heuristic Design (AHD) promises to automate writing such rules. However, existing AHD frameworks were developed for combinatorial problems fully specified to the LLM, and they learn only from a scalar fitness score. In real systems, the behaviour that determines a good heuristic, such as processor speeds or power consumption, is unknown a priori: the score reveals which heuristic performs better, but not why. This missing information is recorded in the system logs that every evaluation produces. Exploiting it is non-trivial: logs are massive and noisy, the relevant signals depend on the objective, and their content and format vary across hardware and software stacks, so they can neither be fed to an LLM as is nor processed by a fixed parser. We propose TRACE, which couples an evolutionary AHD loop with an agentic knowledge-extraction workflow. A Reasoner agent analyzes the log schema in light of the objective and formulates hypotheses about the system dynamics; a Coder agent writes and executes schema-specific code to test them, producing insights or executable tools for the evolved heuristics. We evaluate TRACE on a synthetic cloud benchmark and a 5G vRAN scenario built from industrial testbed measurements and operational traffic traces. TRACE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art AHD methods in resource assignment problems and yields more auditable heuristics at under 2% overhead.
Sep 28, 2026cs.CV

VideoPhysEdit: Physical Counterfactual Video Editing via Rigid-Body Physical Scene Reconstruction

Video editing has advanced substantially in recent years, with methods increasingly accounting for the visual consequences of edits, such as changes to shadows and occlusions. However, the physical consequences of edits, including changes to subsequent motion and interactions, remain less explored. We formulate this problem as physical counterfactual video editing (PCVE), which aims to generate a counterfactual video depicting the resulting motion and interactions given a source video, a physical edit, and its execution frame. PCVE is challenging because it requires understanding scene physics and inferring the downstream motion and interactions induced by a physical intervention, while paired factual and counterfactual data and dedicated evaluation metrics are lacking. We introduce VideoPhysEdit, a new training-free pipeline for PCVE in rigid-body scenes. It makes physical reasoning explicit through a novel physical scene reconstruction method that recovers a scene reproducing the observed motion and interactions under simulation, enabling the pipeline to apply physical edits as interventions and use the resulting trajectories to guide counterfactual video generation. We further construct PCVE-RigidBench, a synthetic benchmark with paired source and counterfactual target videos and physical ground truth, and introduce the Physical Edit Score. VideoPhysEdit achieves substantially higher physical edit accuracy than open-source methods and commercial models while maintaining competitive visual fidelity. Its Physical Edit Score is 0.376, the only positive score among the compared methods. Qualitative comparisons on real videos further show that VideoPhysEdit applies to real-world scenes and better depicts the downstream motion and interactions induced by the edits than the compared methods. Code: https://github.com/Hammour-steak/VideoPhysEdit
Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

SymbolicArena: A Unified Infrastructure for Benchmark Distillation and Dynamic Evaluation in Symbolic Regression

Symbolic regression (SR) seeks concise and interpretable mathematical expressions from data for scientific equation discovery. Existing SR benchmarks face a tradeoff between evaluation cost and benchmark validity. Repeated evaluation of large task pools is expensive, and compact benchmarks lack systematic evidence of preserved task diversity and algorithm discriminability. SymbolicArena provides a unified infrastructure for benchmark distillation and dynamic evaluation. The framework standardizes 664 heterogeneous tasks with executable ground truth expressions and distills the Full Task Set into Core50, a validated benchmark of 50 tasks. The distillation process preserves task coverage and algorithm discrimination under explicit balance constraints. SymbolicArena applies a unified execution protocol to heterogeneous SR algorithms and produces comparable outputs and search trajectories. Multi Axis Evaluation characterizes numerical quality, symbolic quality, and search behavior. Core50 reduces evaluation workload by 92.5% and maintains agreement with Full Task Set evaluations. Experiments show that SymbolicArena achieves 72.6% to 86.7% lower approximation error than alternative selectors, further supporting its fidelity to the Full Task Set. Evaluation reveals a substantial gap between numerical fitting and symbolic recovery across current SR methods, suggesting that reliable equation recovery remains an open challenge.
Sep 28, 2026cs.AI

Test-Time Scaling via Budgeted Multi-Attribute Verification

Verifying LLM-generated answers under a shared computational budget requires jointly deciding which candidates to inspect and which verification attributes to evaluate. We formulate this problem as multi-attribute good-arm identification under a global budget: each candidate is an arm evaluated along several costly attributes, and the goal is to certify as many candidates as possible whose mean scores exceed the prescribed thresholds on all attributes. We propose \textsc{BMA-GAI}, an algorithm that combines cost-aware arm selection with adaptive sampling of attributes. Every observation serves both to guide adaptive allocation and to support anytime-valid certification, which removes the need for a separate confirmation stage. We establish an asymptotic coverage guarantee for \textsc{BMA-GAI} and derive a matching information-theoretic converse that characterizes the intrinsic complexity of the problem, thereby proving that \textsc{BMA-GAI} is first-order optimal away from critical budget levels. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and an LLM answer-verification task show that \textsc{BMA-GAI} allocates the verification budget more efficiently and certifies more high-quality candidates than competing methods.
Sep 10, 2026cs.LG

CausalArena: Benchmarking Causal Discovery in the Foundation Model Era

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from data and is fundamental to scientific reasoning and intervention-based decision making. Its evaluation relies heavily on structural causal models (SCMs), which specify a causal graph together with the mechanisms that generate data, yet existing studies differ substantially in graph families, mechanisms, and evaluation protocols. The emergence of causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) further complicates evaluation: performance may reflect not only causal discovery ability, but also overlap between pretraining environments and test SCMs, making results on fixed synthetic benchmarks difficult to interpret. We introduce CausalArena, a unified and evolvable benchmark for causal discovery under a common protocol. Synthetic SCMs supply controlled breadth over structures and mechanisms; semantic operational SCMs provide human-auditable, semantically grounded environments beyond standard synthetic generators; and formula-grounded SCMs test discovery under explicit scientific mechanisms. Public real-world datasets provide an additional external-validity check. Experiments across classical, neural, and pretrained methods reveal substantial ranking shifts across SCM families and protocols, showing that strong performance in one benchmark regime does not reliably transfer to others. These results highlight benchmark diversity and pretraining--evaluation overlap as central challenges for evaluating causal discovery in the foundation model era.
Aug 6, 2026cs.AI

Improving the Realism of Synthetic Clinical Benchmarks Under Utility Constraints

Synthetic clinical benchmarks for enterprise AI agents can pass existing utility checks and still remain structurally unrealistic, especially in privacy-sensitive healthcare settings where operational data are hard to access. We study how to improve such benchmarks without breaking the downstream utility checks already used in practice. We formulate benchmark revision as utility-constrained realism improvement: dataset changes should increase realism while staying above an operational utility floor. We instantiate this idea on a care-gap benchmark derived from Synthea-generated patients exercised through demonstration electronic health record workflows and then processed by the same downstream pipeline as operational data. Realism is measured through missingness structure, simplicity, structural plausibility, and population alignment. The baseline benchmark is extremely thin: sampled-pair missingness is 79.44%, only 12.75% of rows are actionable, 38.94% of patients have zero actionable measures, and top-three token concentration reaches 100.0%. Two deterministic revisions improve these panels while remaining above the current utility floor, whereas a naive densification control preserves unrealistic templating. We further show that internal benchmark realism and source fidelity to an aggregate operational reference are related but distinct objectives. These results suggest that synthetic benchmark quality should be optimized explicitly, with utility treated as one constraint rather than as sufficient evidence of realism.
Jul 30, 2026cs.AI

Library Reachability in LSR-Synth: How Anti-Memorization Design Changes the Measurement of Symbolic Discovery

Existing benchmarks for scientific equation discovery are largely composed of well-known equations available in the public domain, making it difficult to determine whether a model is discovering laws from data or merely recalling answers from its training corpus. LSR-Synth mitigates this problem by introducing novel synthetic terms into established scientific mechanisms and filtering the resulting tasks for novelty, solvability, and scientific plausibility. This paper examines a narrower measurement question: can these tasks further distinguish scientific priors supplied by language models from conventional operator search that does not access task semantics? We construct a semantics-free baseline using a fixed vocabulary with publicly documented provenance, and assess the role of candidate coverage through semantic blinding, library weakening, and matched operator-family knockouts. Under the current task snapshot, search budget, and scoring protocol, the fixed vocabulary already covers most tasks, while language-model-generated candidates rarely expand the set of solvable instances. Their marginal contribution becomes substantial only when vocabulary coverage is selectively disrupted. Strict out-of-distribution evaluation lowers the absolute success rates of all methods but does not alter this relationship. These findings neither invalidate LSR-Synth's controls against memorization of complete formulas nor imply that language-model priors are generally unhelpful. Rather, they support a more limited conclusion: most current tasks remain suitable for evaluating the fitting and recombination of previously unseen expressions, but are insufficient on their own to identify contributions from priors beyond a fixed search space.
Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

Inverse Learning of Latent Risk-Neutral Densities from Irregular Option Quotes

Accurate option prices do not imply accurate recovery of the latent risk-neutral density. We study this distinction with two complementary benchmarks. A controlled benchmark exposes simulator-truth densities for latent evaluation, while a chronological NIFTY benchmark tests only held-out market prices. A two-component lognormal mixture has the lowest aggregate price, L1L^1, Wasserstein, and fixed-tail errors on the synthetic benchmark. Learned operators retain narrower strengths: DeepONet reduces 1% quantile and variance error by 39.0% and 34.6% relative to the mixture, and a quote transformer reduces L1L^1 by 16.4% on the structurally misspecified Merton family. A numerical conditioning analysis explains why these rankings can differ: after enforcing mass and forward constraints, 95 of 126 pricing directions are numerically null, and two densities separated by L1=0.061L^1 = 0.061 produce identical prices on the covered strikes. On 524 held-out NIFTY calls, validation-selected test-time adaptation reduces DeepONet RMSE by 28.3%, but per-expiry mixture and SVI fits remain much more accurate. The evidence supports target-dependent inductive bias, not a universal winner.
Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

DoTime: A Synthetic Benchmark Generator for Interventional and Counterfactual Time Series

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce \textbf{DoTime}, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the \code{dotime} PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention \emph{windows}, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks \emph{inside} the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100,000100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.
Jul 21, 2026cs.LG

SFGA: A Statistics-First Gating Architecture with Adjudicative Escalation for Trustworthy SFT Data Procurement

Procuring supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data forces a buyer to decide, before any downstream training, whether a candidate corpus is worth acquiring. We present \sys{}, a statistics-first gating architecture that treats procurement as a cost-aware routing problem over three intrinsic quality axes -- diversity, utility, and redundancy. Cheap blind measurements are summarised into per-axis estimates with confidence intervals; a gate accepts a decision only when intervals are tight, sample sizes are adequate, and the axes agree, otherwise it escalates the case to an adjudicative debate between a buy-advocate and a reject-advocate judge, resolved by a presiding verdict. On a controlled benchmark of 12 datasets (2×3×22{\times}3{\times}2 grid over the three axes) with 5 seeds, the gate reaches 0.90 accuracy and 0.83 F1F_1 at $0.017 per unit, sitting between an always-verify baseline (0.75) and an oracle upper bound (0.98) while spending less than always-escalate ($0.020). We further report honest negative diagnostics of the debate path: a con-side win rate of 0.80 (p≈3×10−6p\approx3{\times}10^{-6}) and a 52% position-flip rate under advocate swapping expose negativity and positional biases that a naive LLM-judge would hide. We frame the injected-knob evaluation explicitly as a controlled synthetic benchmark for measurement fidelity and routing calibration, and delimit external validity as future work.
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

Scaling Time Series Classification via XAI-Driven Data Reduction

Explainable AI (XAI) for time series has seen significant algorithmic growth, but its utility in providing measurable performance gains for downstream tasks remains under-explored. This paper bridges this gap by introducing drXAI, a novel methodology that repurposes XAI attribution methods for effective data reduction in Time Series Classification (TSC). The core challenge in modern TSC is scalability; state-of-the-art models, such as Transformers, exhibit quadratic complexity relative to sequence length and linear complexity relative to the number of channels. This renders them computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. drXAI addresses this by using a fast, GPU-accelerated classifier (Hydra) to generate local attributions. We aggregate these into global feature importance scores and employ an automated elbow-cut heuristic to select the most salient features without requiring manual thresholds. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world univariate and multivariate datasets. On synthetic benchmarks, drXAI successfully recovers ground-truth features where traditional baselines fail. On real-world data, drXAI achieves between 80% and 90% data reduction while maintaining classification accuracy comparable to models trained on the full dataset. Most importantly, we show that drXAI allows resource-intensive models like ConvTran to scale to datasets that were previously inaccessible due to memory constraints. Our results show the benefits of using XAI not just for interpretability, but as a robust tool for feature selection and scalability in time series analysis. All our code and data are openly available.
Jul 15, 2026stat.ML

Operator-Informed Gaussian Processes for Complex Helmholtz Wavefields: From Synthetic Benchmarks to In Vivo Brain Elastography

The Helmholtz equation governs time-harmonic wave propagation, and in dissipative media a complex modulus renders its squared wavenumber κ2κ^2 complex. Inferring such fields from sparse, noisy data calls for solvers that also quantify their own uncertainty. Physics-informed Gaussian-process (GP) regression supplies this by returning a posterior over the solution, yet operator-conditioned formulations have been developed almost exclusively for real-valued fields. We extend operator-informed GP regression to complex-valued Helmholtz problems by realifying the complex operator into an equivalent coupled real block, which enables inference with standard real-valued GP conditioning. The construction admits a family of priors, from a proper diagonal prior to coregionalized and multiscale variants, and conditions on PDE residuals and boundary traces. On benchmark problems in one to three dimensions, the solver is competitive with finite-difference and neural-network baselines at a far smaller interior-constraint budget. Unlike those deterministic baselines, it returns a posterior over the complex wavefield rather than a point estimate. Applied to \textit{in vivo} brain magnetic resonance elastography, a proper multiscale prior reconstructs the shear curl field to a correlation of 0.770.77 with measurement, above a 0.750.75 target. The gain arises from the multiscale kernel rather than from real--imaginary coupling. We further identify a low-frequency accuracy ceiling set by model mismatch and a posterior uncertainty that is not yet calibrated. Calibrated uncertainty therefore emerges as the central next step for probabilistic wavefield inference in dissipative media.
Jul 1, 2026cs.NE

MMAO-Dyn: A Metabolic Multi-Agent Optimizer for Dynamic Optimization

This paper studies whether the Metabolic Multi-Agent Optimizer (MMAO) can be credibly derived into a dynamic-optimization method without replacing its core metabolic control loop by external adaptation modules. The proposed MMAO-Dyn maps private energy, communal budget, role drift, success feedback, and lifecycle turnover to a nonstationary setting in which environmental changes repeatedly invalidate previously useful local structure. We evaluate MMAO-Dyn on an 18-scenario synthetic dynamic continuous benchmark matrix covering shifted sphere, shifted Ackley, and shifted Rastrigin landscapes at 10D10D, 20D20D, and 30D30D, with two change severities and 12 seeds per scenario. The comparison layer includes a generic MMAO variant without dynamic derivation, dynamic random search, dynamic PSO-lite, dynamic DE-lite, and three endogenous ablations. Across the full 216-run matrix, MMAO-Dyn attains mean offline error 28.0728.07, improving over Generic-MMAO (29.3629.36), Dynamic-PSO-lite (34.6534.65), Dynamic-DE-lite (67.0967.09), and Dynamic-RandomSearch (111.37111.37). The gains are clearest in aggregate robustness on sphere and Rastrigin families and in 10-step post-change recovery relative to the generic backbone, whereas the seed-aligned comparison with Dynamic-PSO-lite remains unfavorable in win-loss count and the \texttt{NoMemoryRefresh} ablation stays very close to the full method. We therefore position MMAO-Dyn as a credible family-expansion result for MMAO: the metabolic loop can generate meaningful dynamic behavior, but the strongest current value lies in recovery-oriented resource redistribution rather than in universal dominance or in a fully optimized submechanism design.
Jun 28, 2026cs.SD

EchoHawk: A Reproducible Acoustic Pipeline for Drone Detection, Classification, and Direction-Finding, with a Cautionary Study of Session-Level Data Leakage

Passive acoustic sensing is an attractive modality for counter-unmanned aerial system (counter-UAS) defence: it is covert, low-cost, and effective against drones with small radar cross-sections or minimal radio emissions. We present EchoHawk, an open and fully reproducible reference pipeline that detects a drone from its rotor harmonics, estimates its blade-passing frequency, and localises it with a microphone array via classical wideband beamforming (delay-and-sum, MVDR, MUSIC) and time-delay processing (GCC-PHAT, SRP-PHAT), followed by temporal tracking. We evaluate the system on a physically transparent synthetic benchmark that pits drones against hard low-frequency harmonic confusers, such as ground vehicles, and on real recorded audio. Our central methodological contribution is a documented case of session-level data leakage in a widely used public dataset: because its recordings are pre-segmented into short clips, naive clip-level splits place adjacent slices of the same continuous recording in both training and test sets, inflating reported performance. Enforcing recording-session-grouped cross-validation reduces, for example, a random-forest baseline's detection probability at a 1% false-alarm rate from 0.796 to 0.745, yielding honest numbers. All code, figures, and a synthetic data generator are released so that every result runs without any download.
Jun 20, 2026cs.NE

Evolutional Math: Cross-Validated Island-Model Genetic Programming for Interpretable Symbolic Regression on Small, Wide Datasets

Symbolic regression via genetic programming routinely fails on small, wide datasets - a regime common in clinical-trial monitoring, biostatistics, and engineering pilot studies - by converging on bloated, overfit expressions that exploit correlation rather than prediction. We present Evolutional Math, an open-source genetic programming system that combines four design choices to yield compact, interpretable formulas in this regime. First, fitness is measured by R-squared on held-out cross-validation folds rather than Pearson correlation on the training set, eliminating single-variable shortcuts that correlate but mis-scale. Second, a multi-island architecture runs independent populations seeded with distinct operator subsets (algebraic, logarithmic, trigonometric, and full) with ring-topology migration every M generations, preventing the search from collapsing into one region of formula space. Third, a structural deduplication scheme treats formulas differing only in constants as equivalent, so the elite archive contains structurally distinct candidates rather than near-duplicate variants. Fourth, top-k individuals undergo numerical constant refinement via scipy L-BFGS-B after each migration phase, decoupling structure search from parameter fitting. We evaluate the system on synthetic benchmarks of the form log(x_i) * x_j / (x_k * c), trigonometric mixtures, and an anonymized clinical site-monitoring dataset with 24 rows and approximately 290 candidate numeric features. The system consistently recovers compact ground-truth structures with R-squared at or above 0.99 within tens of thousands of unique formula evaluations. A reference implementation is released under a noncommercial source-available license.
Jun 16, 2026cs.CE

Domain-Validity-Gated Metamorphic Testing of Scientific ML Surrogates

Scientific machine-learning (SciML) surrogates approximate expensive simulations, but exact expected outputs for arbitrary inputs are unavailable (the oracle problem). Metamorphic testing checks relations across executions, yet a candidate relation is not automatically valid: its preconditions, output mapping, and the numerical floor of the scoring operator determine whether a violation is meaningful. We study how candidate metamorphic relations (MRs) can be screened for domain validity and turned into executable, oracle-free test assets for SciML surrogates. We propose (i) a domain-validity rubric that admits a candidate only when its tolerance dominates the operator's numerical floor and its preconditions hold; (ii) an MR-card executable-asset format recording source cases, transformations, metrics, tolerances, and typed relation-level verdicts; and (iii) a case-study protocol on MeshGraphNets cylinder-flow surrogates, with a claim ledger binding every result to a tracked artifact. On a MeshGraphNets checkpoint, node permutation holds to machine precision, mirror-y is a bounded out-of-distribution stress finding rather than an exact symmetry, and absolute conservation stays deferred while a reference-relative guard passes. The same readings hold across held-out trajectories, a checkpoint roster, three further architectures, and PhysicsNeMo. On a second CFD task (compressible airfoil) the predicate instead rejects incompressible continuity on physical grounds, showing it reasons about domain validity rather than running a fixed checklist. On a second PDE family, FNO Burgers and heat surrogates run full admit/reject/execute verdicts. The evidence spans two CFD tasks and a second PDE family, supporting a validity-aware bridge from candidate MRs to auditable SciML test assets that separates model-level violations from out-of-domain applications.
Jun 15, 2026cs.CY

Qualified Educational Capacity Planning under Heterogeneous Student Support Needs: A Synthetic Benchmark and Decision-Support Framework

Educational support services often face a qualified-capacity problem: staff time is scarce, qualifications decay, new support needs can appear before anyone is prepared for them, and training consumes the same hours needed by current students. We introduce a synthetic benchmark and decision-support framework for qualified educational capacity planning. The model is a stylized single-institution service system with heterogeneous support-demand categories, backlog-only dynamics, continuous preparation states with hard threshold qualification and decay, and capacity-consuming training. The benchmark includes seed-controlled scenarios for announced and surprise new support categories, staff absences, and demand surges; exact feasibility discipline; declared per-policy information sets; requalification and greenfield-qualification counters; access-dispersion metrics; replay checksums; and paired statistics. We compare service-only, reactive, static-insurance, water-filling, and rolling-horizon mixed-integer controllers, with an attribution chain separating service planning, qualification maintenance, and acquisition, plus a perfect-foresight reference. The central result is a regime map governed by whether a newly required qualification can be acquired within the controller's reaction reach. When it can, the closed-loop controller wins across the core and adversarial suites, with value concentrated in just-in-time qualification acquisition. When the training lag exceeds the horizon, lean static insurance wins structurally, and a reactive trainer that starts after onset can be worse than no training. Backlog perishability shifts this boundary without erasing either regime. EduCapacity Studio reproduces exported scenarios bit-for-bit. All evidence is stylized and synthetic; the framework makes no claims about real student outcomes, compliance, or individual placements.
Jun 15, 2026cs.LG

HawkesNest: A Multi-Axis Synthetic Benchmark for Spatiotemporal Pattern Complexity

Evaluation of spatiotemporal point process (STPP) models relies heavily on opaque real-world datasets, where latent generative structure is unknown and model failures are difficult to attribute. We introduce HawkesNest, a generator-aligned benchmark for controlled spatiotemporal pattern complexity built on a multivariate Hawkes backbone. HawkesNest defines four complexity axes: space--time entanglement, background heterogeneity, cross-type interaction, and domain topology. Each axis is associated with a deterministic index computed from the latent data-generating mechanism. By varying these axes while holding global rate, stability, and simulation budget fixed, HawkesNest enables diagnostic stress tests of STPP models under known structural difficulty. We verify that the indices are monotone and nearly orthogonal under controlled sweeps. We illustrate its use by showing that Hawkes-family baselines degrade under joint heterogeneity--entanglement complexity, even though they are structurally aligned with the Hawkes data-generating backbone. We further show that HawkesNest exposes neural-model sensitivity: AutoSTPP remains vulnerable under isolated increases in space--time entanglement. Code. Available at https://github.com/YahyaAalaila/HawkesNest
Jun 13, 2026cs.AI

CODA-BENCH: Can Code Agents Handle Data-Intensive Tasks?

Advanced agents are increasingly demonstrating the potential to operate as autonomous engineers, creating a growing demand for evaluation benchmarks that capture the complexity of real-world development. Such environments typically involve both complex code and large-scale data (i.e., file system). However, existing benchmarks usually evaluate code-centric or data-centric capabilities in isolation, leaving a clear gap with real development scenarios. In this paper, we bridge this gap by introducing CODA-BENCH, the first benchmark to jointly evaluate code and data intelligence in a data-intensive environment. We construct a data-intensive Linux sandbox based on the Kaggle ecosystem (containing hundreds of datasets), where agents must actively explore complex file hierarchies to identify relevant resources and generate code for data-driven analytical tasks. CODA-BENCH comprises 1,009 tasks spanning 31 communities, with each task environment containing an average of 980 files, simulating realistic data scale and noise. Evaluations of advanced agents reveal that even top-performing systems struggle to effectively integrate data discovery with code execution, achieving a success rate of only 61.1%. These results highlight a substantial gap in current agentic capabilities for data-intensive tasks and point to promising directions for future research.
Jun 4, 2026cs.CV

Synthetic Benchmarks Overstate Forward-Forward Scaling: Real-Data Limits of Layer-Local Training

Forward-Forward (FF) learning [Hinton, 2022] replaces backpropagation with strictly layer-local goodness updates. Recent FF-CNN work has narrowed the gap to BP on 32x32 benchmarks, raising the question of whether layer-local training is becoming a viable alternative at realistic scale. To probe this rigorously, we develop DTG-FF -- dynamic temperature goodness, decoupled normalization, and multi-layer fusion -- as an instrument that sets FF-family state of the art across nine real-data benchmarks (91.8% CIFAR-10 and the first FF baseline at ImageNet-100 224x224), and use it to audit how far layer-local training actually scales. (1) Real-data scaling. Under identical recipe and backbone, an architecture-matched BP-DeepSup baseline beats DTG-FF by 2.40/5.93 pp on CIFAR-10/CIFAR-100, and the gap widens with class count. At 224x224 the same instrument reaches only 49.4% -- the first FF baseline at this scale, versus typical BP above 75% [Tian et al., 2020] -- exposing a real-data ceiling invisible at 32x32. (2) Synthetic vs. real K-conflict. DTG-FF increasingly outperforms BP as class count K grows on synthetic teacher-student tasks, yet on real images the FF-BP gap reverses sign and widens with K. A within-dataset CIFAR-100 coarse vs. fine probe isolates label-hierarchy from image distribution: synthetic K-sweeps confound output dimensionality with fine-grained discrimination difficulty and thereby overstate FF transferability. (3) Systems audit. FF can be implemented without storing depth-wide activations, but on commodity 8 GB hardware standard BP+gradient-accumulation reaches 4.18 GB / 157 imgs/s versus DTG-FF's 7.90 GB / 138 imgs/s, so a memory-based justification for FF at this scale is not supported under fair baselines.
Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

Measuring What Matters: Synthetic Benchmarks for Concept Bottleneck Models

Concept bottleneck models predict outcomes from high-level concepts detected in inputs. Although concepts provide a simple way to reap benefits from interpretability, very few datasets include concept labels. This limits researchers' ability to determine which problems are suitable for these models, isolate the factors that drive their performance or lead to failures, or uncover which algorithms perform well. In this paper, we develop synthetic benchmarks for concept-bottleneck models, focusing on their two main use cases: decision support, in which models assist humans in making better decisions, and automation, in which models handle routine tasks without supervision. Our benchmarks can generate labeled datasets while controlling for properties that affect performance, including data modality, concept choice, annotation quality, and completeness. We demonstrate how the benchmarks can be used to evaluate representative classes of concept bottleneck models. Our demonstrations show how the benchmarks can diagnose failure modes and guide follow-up testing.
Jun 2, 2026q-fin.CP

FinStressTS: A Parametric Synthetic Benchmark for Time-Series Forecasting in Finance

Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps. Real-world benchmarks offer limited failure attribution: researchers can observe underperformance, but often cannot isolate why because mechanisms are unobservable and entangled. Real financial data reveal only one realized path, making it difficult to assess tail-risk calibration or data efficiency. We introduce FinStressTS, a mechanism-aware synthetic benchmark that links model behavior to controlled structural causes. FinStressTS comprises 30 diagnostic environments around six mechanism families: volatility clustering, multi-scale persistence, heavy-tailed shocks, regime switching, self-exciting jumps, and zero-inflated processes. We evaluate two tasks: point forecasting, using NMAE across five settings, and probabilistic forecasting, using CRPS under known data-generating mechanisms. We benchmark 15 models, from classical methods (HAR, VAR) to Transformer forecasters (PatchTST, iTransformer) and deep probabilistic architectures (DeepAR, TSFlow), and use learning curves to measure sample efficiency. Our evaluation reveals three insights. First, performance is mechanism-dependent: autoregressive and linear models are highly competitive, and often outperform Transformer-based models, in several volatility-, tail-, and jump-driven environments. Second, distributional alignment matters: parametric probabilistic models such as DeepAR calibrate well in stationary settings, while flexible models can help when distributions become multimodal or sparse. Third, neural models often require more data to match simple baselines, with larger gains mainly when learning latent regimes or complex distributions. FinStressTS provides an open framework for diagnosing failure modes and advancing risk-aware forecasting.
Jun 1, 2026cs.CL

Machine Learning for Coding Retail Product Names to Consumer-Price Categories: A Rule-plus-Bag-of-Words Pipeline with Reliability-Weighted Human-in-the-Loop Labeling

Consumer-price measurement increasingly draws on alternative data sources -- scanner, web-scraped, and transaction/receipt data -- whose product descriptions are short, noisy, and carry no standard product code, so each item must first be mapped to a consumption classification (e.g., the UN COICOP scheme) before prices can be compared. This paper studies that mapping as a general, reproducible method. The pipeline is: (i) text normalization and tokenization of noisy item names; (ii) a prefix-tree (trie) rule-based pre-classifier driven by per-category key-phrases and stop-phrases; and (iii) a per-category binary confirmation model. For labels at scale we use a human-in-the-loop protocol in which annotators give a binary valid/reject judgment aggregated by a dynamically updated reliability weight; the model joins the same rule, enabling continual fine-tuning. On a reproducible synthetic benchmark of six COICOP-like categories, under one matched protocol, cheap models win and order-sensitive ones do not help: a character n-gram logistic regression tops every category (mean F1 = 0.997), word-order features add nothing, and small CNN/LSTM models are the weakest in this small-data regime. The trie alone admits only 32-50% of items, so the learned stage is necessary, and about 66 labels per category suffice. A Monte-Carlo study of the labeling protocol is self-critical: the reliability-weighted vote barely beats plain majority while Dawid-Skene recovers labels markedly better. No proprietary or production data are used; all code and synthetic data are released at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20909563
May 28, 2026cs.LG

Test Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning

Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) has shown promise in causal discovery by framing it as a supervised learning problem. However, it suffers from significant out-of-distribution generalization challenges. We reveal three limitations of previous SCL practices: a significant performance gap between synthetic benchmarks and real-world data, fragility to distribution shifts, and failure in compositional generalization, collectively questioning its real-world applicability. To address this, we propose Test-Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning (TTT-SCL), a novel framework that dynamically generates training sets explicitly aligned with any specific test instance. We demonstrate the correlation between TTT-SCL and score-based methods, and design an efficient module for generating training sets based on the classic scoring function. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, pseudo-real and real-world datasets demonstrate that TTT-SCL significantly outperforms existing SCL and traditional causal discovery methods.
May 25, 2026cs.CL

A Controlled Synthetic Benchmark for Educational Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Educational aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can support course improvement, but public aspect-labeled student feedback remains scarce because educational reviews are private, institution-specific, and expensive to annotate. This study introduces a controlled synthetic benchmark for educational ABSA built from 10,000 synthetic course reviews with explicit train-validation-test splits and a 20-aspect pedagogical schema spanning instructional quality, assessment and course management, learning demand, learning environment, and engagement. The corpus is generated with sampled target labels, sampled nuance attributes, and a realism-tuned prompt refined through a three-cycle judge-editor procedure. On the resulting benchmark, local baselines with TF-IDF, two-step transformers, and joint encoders show that the task is nontrivial; the strongest untuned model, BERT, reaches a held-out detection micro-F1 of 0.2760, while a modest lower-rate BERT schedule improves this to 0.2930. Full-test GPT-based inference with gpt-5.2 reaches 0.2519 micro-F1 in zero-shot mode and 0.2501 with retrieval-based few-shot prompting, placing batch inference above the classical baseline and close to the compact joint encoders. A conservative external evaluation on 2,829 mapped student-feedback reviews from Herath et al. yields a micro-F1 of 0.4593 for BERT on a 9-aspect overlap, indicating partial synthetic-to-real transfer. Realism and faithfulness analyses are reported as generator diagnostics that clarify how the benchmark was stabilized and where label noise remains. The study therefore contributes a synthetic educational ABSA corpus, a documented generation procedure, and a reproducible benchmark setting for a domain in which public labeled data remain difficult to obtain.
May 21, 2026cs.CL

SynAE: A Framework for Measuring the Quality of Synthetic Data for Tool-Calling Agent Evaluations

Today, tool-calling agents are commonly evaluated or tested on static datasets of execution traces, including input commands, agent responses, and associated tool calls. However, internal production datasets are often insufficient or unusable for testing; for example, they may contain sensitive or proprietary data, or they may be too sparse to support comprehensive testing (especially pre-deployment). In these settings, practitioners are increasingly replacing or augmenting real datasets with synthetic ones for evaluation purposes. A key challenge is quantifying the relation between these synthetic datasets and the real data. We introduce SynAE, an evaluation framework for assessing how well synthetic benchmarks for multi-turn, tool-calling agents replicate and augment the characteristics of real data trajectories. SynAE assesses the validity, fidelity, and diversity of synthetic data across four metric categories: (i) task instructions and intermediate responses, (ii) tool calls, (iii) final outputs, and (iv) downstream evaluation. We evaluate SynAE using recent agent benchmarks and test common synthetic data failure modes via realistic and controlled generation schemes. SynAE detects fine-grained variations in data validity, fidelity and diversity, and shows that no single metric is sufficient to fully characterize synthetic data quality, motivating a multi-axis evaluation of synthetic data for agent testing. A demo of SynAE is available at https://synae-2026-synae-demo.static.hf.space/index.html, with code at https://github.com/wsqwsq/SynAE.
May 18, 2026cs.AI

Divergence-Suppressing Couplings for Rectified Flow

The promise of Rectified Flow rests on producing self-generated couplings whose trajectories are straight, or nearly so. In practice, trajectories generated by the base flow model can bend and intertwine, and the resulting coupling inherits this distortion. In this paper, we identify that such trajectory entanglement is often associated with regions of nonzero divergence in the learned velocity field, where local expansion or contraction distorts trajectories and steers particles away from their ideal endpoints. We then propose divergence-suppressing couplings for Rectified Flow, an offline correction that attenuate the divergent component of the learned velocity during coupling generation. The correction is paid only once per coupling pair and amortized over training, so deployment runs plain Euler at identical wall-clock cost to standard Rectified Flow. Empirically, this offline modification yields consistent improvements on 2D synthetic benchmarks and on image generation.
May 12, 2026cs.CV

ShapeCodeBench: A Renewable Benchmark for Perception-to-Program Reconstruction of Synthetic Shape Scenes

We introduce ShapeCodeBench, a synthetic benchmark for perception-to-program reconstruction: given a rendered raster image, a model must emit an executable drawing program that a deterministic evaluator re-renders and compares with the target. The v1 DSL has four primitives on a 512 x 512 black-on-white canvas, but every instance is generated from a seeded RNG, so fresh held-out sets can be created to reduce exact-instance contamination. We release a frozen eval_v1 split with 150 samples across easy, medium, and hard tiers, scored by exact match, pixel accuracy, foreground IoU, parse success, and execution success. We evaluate an empty-program floor, a classical computer-vision heuristic, Claude Opus 4.7 at high and max effort, and GPT-5.5 at medium and extra_high reasoning effort. The heuristic is competitive on easy scenes but collapses when overlaps fuse components; the strongest multimodal configuration preserves much of the foreground structure but still misses exact match because of small parameter errors. Best overall exact match remains low, so ShapeCodeBench is far from saturated. The benchmark code, frozen dataset, run artifacts, and paper sources are released to support independent replication and extension.
May 9, 2026cs.LG

Prediction Bottlenecks Don't Discover Causal Structure (But Here's What They Actually Do)

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S=∣WoutWin∣S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p<10−5p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c)do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c)do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.
May 7, 2026cs.LG

Target-Aware Data Augmentation for SAT Prediction

Learning-based approaches to NP-hard problems have shown increasing promise, but their progress is fundamentally constrained by the high cost of generating labeled training data. In domains such as Boolean satisfiability (SAT), standard pipelines rely on solver-in-the-loop labeling, which scales poorly with problem size and limits the amount of usable supervision. This bottleneck hinders the broader goal of leveraging machine learning to capture structure in hard combinatorial problems. In this work, we propose a target-aware, solver-free data generation framework for SAT that produces correctly labeled SAT and UNSAT instances by construction, eliminating the need for expensive solver calls. Our method aligns generated instances with the structural properties of a target benchmark, making synthetic data effective for downstream learning. We further develop a linear-programming-aware graph neural network (LPGNN) architecture that incorporates constraint-violation residuals into message passing, enabling the model to exploit underlying optimization structure. Together, these contributions support a data-centric paradigm for learning on NP-hard problems, where scalable, task-aligned data generation is as critical as model design. Our approach yields orders-of-magnitude speedups in data generation, demonstrating that benchmark-aligned synthetic data can effectively augment solver-labeled datasets for GNN-based SAT prediction.
May 6, 2026cs.LG

Joint Treatment Effect Estimation from Incomplete Healthcare Data: Temporal Causal Normalizing Flows with LLM-driven Evolutionary MNAR Imputation

Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal structure separately, limiting their robustness in electronic health records (EHRs), where time-varying confounding and missing-not-at-random (MNAR) biomarkers can reach 50%--80%. We propose a two-stage pipeline for treatment effect estimation from incomplete longitudinal EHRs. First, CausalFlow-T, a directed acyclic graph (DAG)-constrained normalizing flow with long short-term memory (LSTM)-encoded patient history, performs exact invertible counterfactual inference, avoiding approximation errors from variational inference and separating confounding through explicit causal structure. Ablations on four synthetic and one semi-synthetic benchmark with known counterfactuals show that DAG constraints and exact inference address distinct failure modes: neither compensates for the other. Second, because CausalFlow-T requires completed inputs, we introduce an LLM-driven evolutionary imputer that proposes executable imputation operators rather than individual entries, and evaluate it with three large language model (LLM) backends, including two open-source models. Across 30%--80% MNAR missingness, this imputer achieves the best pooled rank over biomarker and causal metrics, leading in point-wise accuracy and temporal extrapolation while preserving average treatment effect (ATE) recovery as statistical baselines degrade. On Swiss primary-care EHRs from adults with type 2 diabetes initiating a GLP-1 receptor agonist or SGLT-2 inhibitor, the pipeline estimates a per-protocol weight-loss difference of -0.98 kg [95% CI -1.01, -0.96] favoring GLP-1 receptor agonists, consistent with randomized evidence and obtained from realistically incomplete real-world EHRs.
Apr 22, 2026cs.CV

Exploring Spatial Intelligence from a Generative Perspective

Spatial intelligence is essential for multimodal large language models, yet current benchmarks largely assess it only from an understanding perspective. We ask whether modern generative or unified multimodal models also possess generative spatial intelligence (GSI), the ability to respect and manipulate 3D spatial constraints during image generation, and whether such capability can be measured or improved. We introduce GSI-Bench, the first benchmark designed to quantify GSI through spatially grounded image editing. It consists of two complementary components: GSI-Real, a high-quality real-world dataset built via a 3D-prior-guided generation and filtering pipeline, and GSI-Syn, a large-scale synthetic benchmark with controllable spatial operations and fully automated labeling. Together with a unified evaluation protocol, GSI-Bench enables scalable, model-agnostic assessment of spatial compliance and editing fidelity. Experiments show that fine-tuning unified multimodal models on GSI-Syn yields substantial gains on both synthetic and real tasks and, strikingly, also improves downstream spatial understanding. This provides the first clear evidence that generative training can tangibly strengthen spatial reasoning, establishing a new pathway for advancing spatial intelligence in multimodal models.
Apr 20, 2026cs.CL

How Non-Linguistic Is the Indus Sign System? A Synthetic-Baseline Scorecard

Whether the Indus Valley sign system (c. 2600-1900 BCE) encodes spoken language has been debated for decades. This paper introduces a multi-metric discrimination framework that tests the observed Indus corpus against two kinds of computer-generated non-linguistic baseline -- one mimicking a heraldic emblem system, the other an administrative coding system -- each calibrated with Zipfian frequency distributions, positional constraints, and bigram dependencies derived from six attested non-linguistic corpora. The scorecard evaluates four properties central to the Farmer-Sproat-Witzel (2004) critique: text brevity, repeated formulaic phrases, hapax legomenon rate, and positional rigidity. Applying this framework to 1,916 deduplicated inscriptions (584 unique signs, 11,110 tokens) from the ICIT/Yajnadevam digitization, we find that the Indus corpus does not match either baseline cleanly. Across the four metrics examined, the Indus corpus occupies an intermediate position relative to the two baseline families, matching neither cleanly. Neither a heraldic nor an administrative generator can reproduce all four properties at once. We also compare against seven real-world non-linguistic corpora including Sproat's (2014) datasets, finding that no attested non-linguistic system reproduces the full Indus statistical profile either. We replicate key prior results including a Zipf slope of -1.49 and conditional entropy of 3.23 bits. All code and data are publicly available.
Feb 16, 2026cs.LG

SynthSAEBench: Evaluating Sparse Autoencoders on Scalable Realistic Synthetic Data

Improving Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) requires benchmarks that can precisely validate architectural innovations. Current LLM-based SAE benchmarks are too noisy to differentiate architectural improvements, while commonly used synthetic-data experiments are too small-scale, unstandardized, and unrealistic to be meaningful. We introduce SynthSAEBench, a benchmark and toolkit for evaluating SAEs against large-scale synthetic data with realistic feature characteristics including correlation, hierarchy, and superposition, while providing ground-truth features and firings. SynthSAEBench acts as a controlled lower-bound test: SAE architectures that fail when the Linear Representation Hypothesis holds by construction have little hope on real LLMs. The benchmark reproduces known LLM SAE phenomena including the disconnect between reconstruction and latent quality, poor SAE probing, and a precision-recall trade-off mediated by L0, demonstrating that SynthSAEBench findings reproduce results on LLM SAEs. We further identify a novel failure mode: Matching Pursuit SAEs exploit superposition noise to improve reconstruction without learning ground-truth features, suggesting more expressive encoding procedures can easily overfit. SynthSAEBench complements LLM benchmarks with ground-truth features and controlled ablations for diagnosing SAE failure modes, while providing a clear target for SAE architecture work.
Jan 29, 2026cs.AI

Defining Operational Conditions for Safety-Critical AI-Based Systems from Data

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been on the rise in many domains, including numerous safety-critical applications. However, for complex systems in the real world, defining the underlying environmental conditions in which the AI-based system must operate---the Operational Design Domain (ODD)---is extremely challenging. This often results in an incomplete description of the ODD, which contrasts with the requirements of many domains for certifying AI-based systems. Traditionally, the ODD is created in the early stages of the development process, drawing on sophisticated expert knowledge and related standards. This paper presents a novel method for defining the ODD a posteriori from previously collected data using a multidimensional kernel-based representation. This approach is validated through both synthetic benchmarks and a real-world aviation use case. Moreover, the paper defines similarity of two ODDs if they generate the same outputs up to Lebesgue-null input sets and proves convergence in volume of the calibrated representation under the stated assumptions. The novel, safety-by-design, deterministic kernel-based ODD representation is derived fully automatically, given documented assurance inputs, permutation-stable, bounded by construction, and, under affine-equivariant per-dimension normalization, invariant to the choice of units. Utilizing the proposed ODD representation supports future certification of data-driven, safety-critical AI-based systems.
Jan 16, 2026cs.CV

SpaRRTa: A Synthetic Benchmark for Evaluating Spatial Intelligence in Visual Foundation Models

Visual Foundation Models (VFMs), such as DINO and CLIP, excel in semantic understanding of images but exhibit limited spatial reasoning capabilities, which limits their applicability to embodied systems. As a result, recent work incorporates some 3D tasks (such as depth estimation) into VFM training. However, VFM performance remains inconsistent across other spatial tasks, raising the question of whether these models truly have spatial awareness or overfit to specific 3D objectives. To address this question, we introduce the Spatial Relation Recognition Task (SpaRRTa) benchmark, which evaluates the ability of VFMs to identify relative positions of objects in the image. Unlike traditional 3D objectives that focus on precise metric prediction (e.g., surface normal estimation), SpaRRTa probes a fundamental capability underpinning more advanced forms of human-like spatial understanding. SpaRRTa generates an arbitrary number of photorealistic images with diverse scenes and fully controllable object arrangements, along with freely accessible spatial annotations. Evaluating a range of state-of-the-art VFMs, we reveal significant disparities between their spatial reasoning abilities. Through our analysis, we provide insights into the mechanisms that support or hinder spatial awareness in modern VFMs. We hope that SpaRRTa will serve as a useful tool for guiding the development of future spatially aware visual models.