Tabular Data

While modern tabular learners excel at capturing statistical patterns, they frequently operate in a semantic vacuum, treating textual features as discrete symbols, ignoring the rich semantics inherent in feature names or cell entries. We propose CASE (Context-Aware Semantic Embeddings), a novel framework that bridges the gap between the semantic understanding of Large Language Models (LLMs) and the statistical capabilities of tabular learners. Unlike existing methods that embed rows in isolation, CASE utilizes a contextualization strategy: we pre-fill the KV cache of a custom-trained Gemma 3-based Tabular Language Model with a representative sample of rows to establish a persistent anchor of the dataset's semantics. This ensures that generated row embeddings are dynamically contextualized, resolving semantic ambiguities and anchoring representations in domain-specific context. Our experiments across several benchmarks (CARTE, TextTab, and TabArena) demonstrate that CASE substantially improves the performance of tabular learners on semantically rich datasets, particularly in low-data regimes.

Tabular model performance degrades when feature distributions change over time or the relationship between features and outcome variables change over time, known as data drift and concept drift, respectively. These issues are challenging to mitigate in real time because labeled data may not be immediately available, or re-training a model could be impractical. While tools exist to reduce drift, they are typically bespoke to neural network architectures and adapt how models are trained. In this paper, we offer an alternative post-hoc method to reduce concept drift, which is applicable to a variety of models, from trees to neural networks to tabular foundation models. This new tool is especially useful when constraints, such as high model accuracy, bounded inference time, or model size requires users to choose between different models for their specific use-cases. Our algorithm fits the base model separately on each labeled training period, measures how its parameters evolve against a single anchor model pooled over all of those periods, compresses those changes with a low-rank factorization, and extrapolates each latent factor forward with a damped, regularized forecast. On the 18-dataset Drift-Resilient TabPFN benchmark, evaluated under that benchmark's own protocol and metric, the extrapolation improves every base family it is applied to, and achieves performance competitive with the state-of-the-art Drift-Resilient TabPFN with seconds of training. In contrast, Drift-Resilient TabPFN requires pre-training on millions of synthetic datasets over approximately 1,300 GPU-hours, and is orders of magnitude slower in inference (depending on the model). In the discussion, we explore the promise and challenges of extending this tool to other modalities.

Large language models (LLMs) have become the default tool for a remarkable range of tasks, yet they have had conspicuously little success at one of the most common machine learning workloads: predictive analytics over tabular data. This gap is the founding premise of the fast-growing field of tabular foundation models, but the question of why generic LLMs fail has remained open. We study a frontier LLM in its purest inference regime - a single generation pass over a prompt containing the full training and test data, with no tools, no agentic scaffolding, and no fine-tuning - and systematically evaluate five hypotheses for the failure: (a) an inability to handle noisy or non-linearly-separable data; (b) the linearised CSV format obscuring column structure; (c) the tokenisation of numeric values; (d) the number of test points classified per query; and (e) the dimensionality of the input. Controlled experiments falsify (a)-(d). Dimensionality, in contrast, is decisive: sweeping random linear projections of thirty-one benchmark datasets, the LLM is the only method among nine whose accuracy decreases as dimensionality grows, while every classical baseline stays flat or improves. A behavioural comparison against 252 configured classical models finds that in two dimensions the LLM predicts like a local, distance-based method (up to 91.6% grid agreement), but in higher dimensions no classical model - even when augmented with tuned, dimension-dependent noise - reproduces its predictions. We do not claim to have identified the internal mechanism; our results show, more modestly, that the LLM's capability dissolves with dimension in a way no noise-corrupted classical learner mimics - which explains why LLMs, so capable elsewhere, keep losing to fifty-year-old baselines on tables, while leaving the mechanism of the prediction as an open question.

Tabular data generation supports analysis and decision-making when target-domain data are scarce, yet collecting complete target samples is often costly. A practical but underexplored setting provides only a few target records together with richer source data from a related domain. Existing few-shot tabular generators often either fit sparse target statistics directly, which can overfit incidental patterns, or reuse source-domain generators, which may preserve dependencies that no longer hold in the target domain. To address this problem, we propose LAB-Tab, an LLM-augmented Bayesian network (BN) adaptation framework for source-aware few-shot tabular generation. LAB-Tab first fits a BN from source data and then uses an LLM to propose plausible target-domain BN edges that are absent from the source BN graph. This step converts semantic and weak statistical evidence into explicit structural hypotheses, thereby expanding the editable edge space beyond the source-fitted graph. Because the proposed edges may be noisy and interact with existing dependencies, a PPO policy calibrates edges in the augmented BN through edge-level actions, including keep, weaken, strengthen, flip, and deactivate. The PPO policy is trained with a reward that combines distributional alignment, downstream utility, and preservation of target-relevant dependencies. The adapted BN is then sampled to synthesize target-domain tables. Across six source--target distribution-shift scenarios built from three US Census (ACS) prediction tasks, LAB-Tab achieves the best performance at the 10% target-data budget, leads four of the six individual scenarios, and reduces the macro Overall score by 33.8% relative to the strongest baseline. It also obtains the best macro JSD, WAPE, and UtilityGap while maintaining competitive feature--label preservation.

Modern computing and networking infrastructure emits telemetry continuously, yet operators convert it into decisions with a separate predictor per task, entity, and horizon. One generative model, pretrained once over an operator's own event streams, could replace this fleet, an approach that already scales to high-cardinality streams in recommendation systems. However, point-forecast error on operational telemetry saturates near simple last-value baselines, so lower error alone need not improve the decisions it feeds. To close this gap, we present \sys, a generative foundation model for network and systems telemetry, evaluated by replaying the decisions its calibrated conditional quantiles drive. \sys treats heterogeneous telemetry as event-driven, irregularly timed entity streams and serves flexible forecast horizons in a single pass, requiring no future timestamps. To our knowledge, \sys is the first pretrained telemetry model to improve both HPC scheduling and network provisioning decisions under replay, its runtime estimator transferring zero-shot across months and its pretrained weights across domains from hours of target data. Extensive experiments on HPC job logs and network traffic confirm that \sys lowers the mean bounded slowdown of backfilling by up to approximately $77\%$ over deployed user estimates and roughly halves the deployed rule's violation rate. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZzZTripleZzZ/all-in-one.

Tabular foundation models, driven by in-context learning, have rapidly grown in quality and popularity. However, recent approaches with either cell-based architectures or retrieval have sacrificed efficiency for raw performance, restricting their utility in situations where compute is limited or inference speed is crucial. We adopt an alternate approach, sticking with row-based attention while incorporating long context pre-training to eliminate the need for retrieval. By combining this with architectural improvements and SSL pre-training on a newly-sourced, larger corpus of real data results, we present TabDPT-Turbo, a model that provides comparable default performance to TabDPT v1.1 on TabArena-Lite, CC18, and CTR23, at orders of magnitude faster. In our experiments, TabDPT-Turbo is the fastest model overall among leading foundation models. We have released the new model as TabDPT v1.2 at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/TabDPT-inference.

Tabular data is used extensively in many real-world use cases. Deep learning models have been developed to deal with tabular data, but generally perform poorly when the test data distribution differs from that of the training data. Researchers have proposed test-time adaptation approaches to deal with this problem. The fully test-time adaptation (FTTA) setting involves adapting deployed classifiers to shifted target distributions using only unlabeled test data. Leading FTTA methods inherit a batch-dependent approach from computer vision literature. This paper demonstrates for the first time that such approaches degrade sharply in strict streaming regimes where examples arrive and must be classified one at a time. This occurs because at a batch size of one, batch-level statistics become unavailable or poorly estimated. We argue that singleton tabular FTTA is not merely a small-batch variant of ordinary FTTA, but a distinct identifiability problem where only the location of the model's score stream remains directly observable. To address this, we propose Prequential Logit-Origin Centering (PLOC), a lightweight approach that keeps the source model frozen and shifts the logit space at each step. PLOC stores only a single running number (the mean of past logits), requires no labels, estimates no priors, and bypasses weight updates entirely. A deferred variant applies a static shift that preserves the source ranking, and thus the AUROC, exactly. Evaluated across five tabular benchmarks, three architectures (MLP, FT-Transformer, and TabTransformer), and five independent source checkpoints, PLOC significantly outperforms strong tabular and entropy-based baselines.

Visible and near-infrared (vis-NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy enable rapid, cost-effective prediction of soil properties. Yet, translating high-dimensional, highly collinear spectra into accurate soil property predictions remains challenging, particularly when employing machine learning. We systematically investigated regression models and dimensionality reduction approaches for spectroscopic modeling across 85 regression tasks from open benchmark datasets in pedometrics spanning field-scale digital soil mapping and a global soil spectral library. We compared an in-context learning tabular foundation model (TabPFN), a convolutional neural network (CNN), rule-based regression (Cubist), Random Forest, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) using full spectra as well as features derived from principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) latent variables. TabPFN consistently delivered the best overall performance across scales, including large spectral library tasks with tens of thousands of soil samples. Notably, TabPFN applied directly to full spectra already surpassed all classical baselines, showing that explicit dimensionality reduction is not strictly required for strong performance. Further improvements were achieved through PLS, which proved to be an effective dimensionality reduction strategy for all models. Combining PLS latent variables with TabPFN yielded the best predictions overall. Our findings provide evidence-based guidance for spectroscopic calibration model selection across operational scales, demonstrating that the long-standing advantages of PLSR and modern tabular foundation models complement each other in chemometrics.

Data imbalance poses a major challenge in supervised classification, where the majority-class bias contributes to false negatives and overestimates classification accuracy. Unsupervised deep clustering can be immune to class imbalance because representation learning for clustering is performed without class labels. Deep clustering has been proposed for images, languages, and graphs, while its application to tabular data has only emerged recently. This paper is among the first to examine the performance of state-of-the-art deep clustering methods under varying levels of data imbalance. We introduce two novel cluster ensemble approaches: one aggregates deep clustering assignments across different embedding dimensions, and the other applies majority voting to the best-performing clustering algorithms. Experiments on 16 binary tabular datasets with varying and artificially induced levels of imbalance reveal distinct strengths of different deep clustering methods. On average, our ensemble methods outperform individual clustering methods in ACC, NMI, and ARI scores, offering greater resilience to data imbalance when identifying ground-truth classes without supervision. Therefore, in an imbalanced data scenario, deep clustering can serve as a strong alternative to supervised classification.

Relational Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) such as RDB-PFN approximate Bayesian inference over multi-table relational databases by pretraining on millions of synthetic tasks. We investigate three intertwined questions about this paradigm. First, can a structurally different synthetic generator PluRel substitute for RDB-PFN's prior? Second, how much does the order in which synthetic data is presented to the PFN affect downstream performance? Third, how much relational reasoning can a PFN acquire from single-table synthetic pretraining alone, before any relational data is introduced? Using PluRel as the sole synthetic data source across all experiments, we find: (i) a progressive single-table curriculum that gradually widens schema complexity from 7 to 17 columns reaches 0.703 average ROC-AUC on the 23-task tabular benchmark using only approximately 13,300 synthetic tables (approximately 45x fewer single-table datasets than RDB-PFN's reported warm-up recipe), while the same data trained all-at-once collapses to 0.541 ROC-AUC; (ii) a relational curriculum trained from scratch on only approximately 5,500 PluRel databases reaches 0.638 average ROC-AUC on the 19-task RelBench/4DBInfer benchmark, recovering 88% of RDB-PFN's reported performance with approximately 220x less relational synthetic data; and (iii) the single-table curriculum model, evaluated directly on the relational benchmark without any relational adaptation, achieves 0.631, nearly matching the dedicated relational pipeline. Together, these findings suggest that curriculum design and synthetic data diversity may matter more for relational PFN pretraining than the specific relational generator or raw synthetic scale alone.

Predictive process monitoring (PPM) leverages event logs to forecast the future of running process instances, for instance, predicting the next activity, the remaining time until case completion, or the time to the next event. While PPM research in recent years has been dominated by deep sequence models trained from scratch, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, foundation-model approaches---particularly large language models (LLMs)---are increasingly explored for PPM. At the same time, tabular foundation models with in-context learning capabilities offer a promising alternative but have not yet been systematically benchmarked for PPM. Thus, it remains unclear whether classical sequence-based models remain competitive in this evolving landscape. This paper compares the three modeling paradigms both conceptually and empirically through a controlled benchmark across multiple datasets and prediction tasks. The results show that sequence models consistently perform best for next activity prediction, whereas tabular foundation models are competitive on temporal tasks, with LLMs usually lagging behind despite higher cost.

Tabular Foundation Models, such as TabPFN, have received a large amount of recent attention due to their performance on in-context tabular machine learning tasks, which often exceeds classical baselines. However, practical deployment considerations of these models has received less attention. In this paper we investigate the memory requirements for these models. We demonstrate that employing model compression approaches can enable memory reductions of up to 7.6 with similar levels of performance, reducing deployment requirements by nearly 87%. Our work provides insight to practitioners seeking efficient deployment of these models in practical settings.

TabPFN performs classification through in-context learning: it conditions on a set of labeled training rows (the context, or prototypes) and predicts test labels without gradient updates. On small tabular datasets, practitioners must still choose the context size and which rows constitute the context. We study how these choices affect prediction stability, accuracy, and selection cost using repeated context sampling on 15 OpenML datasets. Specifically, we investigate (i) whether larger contexts reduce prediction variability across random draws, (ii) whether accuracy depends on preserving the training distribution or on feature-space coverage, and (iii) whether expensive selection methods such as K-Means and farthest-point sampling provide benefits over uniform random sampling. We find that larger contexts are both more accurate and substantially more stable, with AUC coefficient of variation decreasing from roughly 6 to 18% at k=16 to 1 to 4% at larger context sizes on datasets with room for improvement. Although accuracy correlates with distribution representativeness in random contexts, controlled experiments show that matching feature means alone can reduce accuracy by up to 0.5 AUC because it reduces context diversity. Mixed-effects analysis identifies diversity and coverage, rather than feature-mean matching, as the stronger predictor of accuracy (diversity beta=+0.23, p=3x10^-12; feature-mean shift beta=-0.01, p=0.71). K-Means and farthest-point sampling achieve similar accuracy to random selection while requiring two to three orders of magnitude more selection cost. These results show that random sampling succeeds because it provides feature-space coverage in expectation, not because it reproduces the underlying data distribution.

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have emerged as novel approaches for tabular predictive tasks, demonstrating competitive predictive performance to ensemble tree-based models. Most TFMs are trained and evaluated on independent and identically distributed data, but this assumption changes in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, which compromise the robustness of models. Limited research has been conducted of TFMs under distribution shifts. We present an empirical evaluation of Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) performance of nine TFMs, spanning diverse pre-training strategies and architectures: TabPFNv2, TabPFNv2.5, TabPFNv2.6, TabPFNv3, TabICL, TabICLv2, Mitra, LimiX and TabFM. Three real-world datasets from the TableShift study were considered (HELOC, Voting, Childhood Lead), covering label, socioeconomic, and geographic shift types. Our results show that all evaluated TFMs degrade systematically under distribution shift regardless of pre-training strategy, with shift gaps ranging from 0.003 to 0.060 depending on shift type. The relationship between in-distribution and OOD predictive performance documented for classical tabular models extends into TFMs. We also identified a scalability gap, as high-performing models demand significant memory and computational resources beyond what standard deployment infrastructure can support. This study extends existing benchmarks for OOD in tabular data, providing evidence to support their adoption in high-stakes domains characterized by structural distribution shifts.

Wikipedia and Wikidata are widely used for information access, LLM pre-training, and retrieval-augmented generation. Their knowledge is deeply connected but scattered across text, tables, and knowledge graphs. This raises a practical question: when these modalities disagree, how can we detect and explain the conflict? We study this problem as modality-level inconsistency detection. We first introduce a taxonomy of cross-modal knowledge inconsistencies, covering information granularity differences, direct conflicts, temporal changes, and KG incompleteness. We then present Kontrast, an automatic framework that uses Text-to-SPARQL and LLM reasoning to compare table-based answers with KG evidence and categorize the resulting inconsistencies. Experiments on various Table-QA datasets show that cross-modal inconsistencies are common and informative. They reveal not only true knowledge conflicts, but also missing KG structure and temporal mismatches while being limited by Text-to-SPARQL errors and noise. Our analysis shows that text, tables, and KGs can complement and correct one another through systematic comparison. Kontrast provides a practical tool for large-scale knowledge auditing and establishes a benchmark for future work on cross-modal knowledge consistency. Code and data are available at https://github.com/ECLADATTA/KONTRAST.

Consider a model trained at a single hospital to predict patient recovery, where the measured feature $X$ bundles the patient's true health signal ($C$) with a systematic artefact from that hospital's equipment ($S$). Within that hospital, the artefact correlates with outcomes through unmeasured confounders such as patient demographics; an in-context learner rationally routes predictions through $S$, not $C$, and fails silently when deployed at a new hospital with different equipment. We formalise this as \emph{spurious routing in composite representations}: when a feature $X = [C;\,αS;\,η]$ encodes a causal signal $C$ and a spurious signal $S$ in distinct subspaces, the ICL cannot determine which drives predictions. We prove that under ridge ICL, a linear in-context learner, this routing is unavoidable regardless of context size; TabPFN, a state-of-the-art pretrained tabular ICL model, shows qualitatively consistent behaviour empirically. We derive a closed-form characterisation, $\mathrm{CSR} \propto ρ_S/ρ_C$, confirmed at $r = 0.997$ for linear ICL and $r = 0.979$ for TabPFN. Contrary to intuition, larger context sharpens commitment to the dominant in-context signal, amplifying spurious routing by up to $1.74\times$; in the high-spurious corner, more expressive models show greater vulnerability empirically ($+2.22$ CSR gap at high entanglement). We introduce two lightweight mitigations: environment-stratified context construction and S-swap augmentation, that require only weak environment labels and no knowledge of the causal partition. S-swap reduces spurious routing by $74\%$ for linear ICL and $98.8\%$ for TabPFN, with TabPFN's causal sensitivity increasing $8.4\times$ simultaneously: the model does not become agnostic, it reroutes through the causal signal.

The ability to retrieve relevant tables for answering questions is a key task for structured information retrieval. Multi-stage retrieval systems rely heavily on rerankers to refine candidate lists produced by efficient first-stage retrievers. As a result, neural rerankers and LLM-based reranking methods have become increasingly important due to their superior capacity for semantic understanding and reasoning compared to conventional sparse or dense retrieval models. Recently, Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) equipped with explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning have shown strong improvements in ranking quality in unstructured passage retrieval. In this work, we present TabRank, a framework for training reasoning rerankers for Tabular Retrieval. We first present a comprehensive dataset of 6728 reasoning traces for tabular reranking on the Natural Questions Tables dataset. We then explore two variants of training a compact reasoning model on these reasoning traces: explicit CoT distillation and conditioning the student reranker on the teacher's reasoning trace within the prompt. We stress-test TabRank on several out-of-distribution generalization settings on diverse domains and multi-table scenarios. Our approach significantly improves performance across a variety of table retrieval datasets, increasing Acc@10 by 30.5% on HybridQA, 15.2% on SQA, 52.9% on TabFact, and 13.1% on TATQA subsets of the Multi-Table QA Benchmark compared to the base model. Notably, TabRank generalizes effectively to multi-table reasoning. Our code, data and models are available at https://github.com/AdarshSingh7647/TabRanker

Internet of Things (IoT) applications generate vast amounts of Correlated Time Series (CTS) data that often contain missing values and require imputation. Existing methods emphasize accuracy but often lack adaptability to changing IoT environments: they are vulnerable to sensor failures, cannot selectively impute only incomplete sensors, and use static architectures that do not adapt to resource availability. To address these limitations, we propose AdaCTSi, an adaptive CTS imputer for changing environments. AdaCTSi combines a One-shot Temporal Convolutional Network with a Learned Time-Sensor Index Table to extract and decouple complex spatio-temporal features into sensor-wise embeddings, enabling adaptation to varying sensor subsets. Sparse Spatial Attention efficiently extracts dynamic spatial correlations, while Correlation-Weighted Sensor Selection selects informative sensors to provide sufficient spatial context. Experiments with twelve baseline methods, three adaptability scenarios, and five benchmark datasets covering traffic, air quality, and trajectory data show that AdaCTSi reduces MAE by an average of 33.1% relative to the strongest baseline on each dataset. A single trained model supports sensor-subset and resource-adaptive inference, and its modest memory footprint enables deployment on commodity computing devices, including MCUs.

Mixed continuous--categorical data pose a representation problem for continuous generative models. Flow Matching and Gaussian diffusion operate in Euclidean spaces, whereas categorical laws lie on probability simplices and may be highly imbalanced. We study a logit-coordinate framework that encodes categorical variables as smoothed natural parameters and combines them with transformed numerical variables. This yields common formulations of Logit Flow Matching and Logit Diffusion. We introduce a mixed-distribution discrepancy separating categorical marginal error from conditional continuous Wasserstein error, and derive stability bounds and imbalance-aware nonparametric rates linking vector-field or drift error to decoded mixed-distribution error. Controlled simulations show that scaled-logit coordinates improve or match one-hot coordinates, especially under severe rare-cell imbalance. Across four real-data benchmarks and ten splits per dataset, Logit FM improves the primary distributional metrics on three datasets and is comparable on Churn2; Block-Conditional Logit FM consistently improves the flat model; and Logit Diffusion generally improves over or matches One-Hot Diffusion.

Automatic feature engineering (AutoFE) for tabular data requires discovering informative transformations from a large program space. Existing approaches suffer from three limitations: classical methods rely on fixed operator libraries with limited expressivity, LLM-based methods generate proposals from static prompts without retaining search experience, and evolutionary methods use fixed migration policies that ignore task-specific cross-family transfer utility. We introduce TOPOFE, a framework that formulates AutoFE as graph-structured multi-island evolutionary program search. The transformation space is partitioned into semantically coherent families, each explored by an island through LLM-guided mutation and crossover. Each island maintains a Prompt Adaptation Memory that accumulates accept/reject feedback to steer proposals toward productive regions without parameter updates. To coordinate global exploration, TOPOFE dynamically learns a directed topology graph whose edge weights encode transfer utility between transformation families. Cross-island transfer is triggered by adaptive saturation detection and performed through LLM-mediated hybrid synthesis, enabling discovery of compositional feature programs that cannot emerge from isolated local search. Experiments on 29 tabular datasets show that TOPOFE consistently outperforms most state-of-the-art AutoFE methods on classification and regression tasks. Beyond predictive performance, TOPOFE produces feature sets with lower redundancy and higher representational coverage, while the learned topology graph acquires meaningful task-specific transfer structure correlated with downstream gains. The discovered feature programs transfer reliably across diverse predictors and LLM backbones, demonstrating that improvements arise from TOPOFE's structured search and adaptive coordination rather than backbone-specific generation capability.

Prior classical-ML learning-curve work fits power laws to tree, linear, and kernel models on tabular data, but at small scale: typically one curve, one team, a handful of cells. We present a distributed classroom-scale replication: 127 graduate students each ran a fixed protocol on 3 assigned datasets, drawn from 18 tabular classification and regression datasets and 6 model families (Boosting, Random Forest, SVM, Linear/Logistic, Ridge, Lasso), yielding 11,536 training runs and 1,648 fitted power-law curves of the form error(N) = a N^(-b) + c. Three findings. (1) Power laws fit: R^2 > 0.8 on 77.7% of cells, with tree ensembles dominating at full data (Boosting 50% of datasets, RandomForest 33%; linear models underperform on classification). (2) Approximate shared exponents within a model family: for 5 of 6 families, a single family-level exponent predicts each family's cross-dataset curves nearly as well as per-dataset exponents (R^2 gap < 0.011), though AIC favors the unconstrained fit and curve collapse is partial (32-58% of points within +/-0.5 dex). We frame this as approximate predictive compressibility, not dataset-independent universality; Lasso fails outright (negative control) and Ridge is fragile under leave-one-dataset-out. (3) Replicator-implementation variance: with random_state=42 fixed, independent re-implementations of the same protocol still differ by mean CV(b) = 0.144 on the fitted exponent -- not seed variance, but the spread induced by unconstrained parts of the protocol (preprocessing, encoding, missing-value handling). We release the aggregated curves, per-cell fits, and a practical data-requirement table for N* to reach target error 0.15.

Detecting and cleaning errors in tabular data is a prerequisite for data intense software applications. Recent research at the intersection of Machine Learning (ML) and Database Management Systems (DBMS) highlights the potential of statistical learning algorithms for error detection and cleaning. This paper combines our recent work on ML-based data cleaning and error models in a unified demonstrator. The web application allows users to upload tabular data, perturb the data with realistic data dependent errors and use modern ML methods to clean and understand error mechanisms in data. Our demonstrator helps to bridge the gap between theoretical advancements and intuitive practical insights in the context of error models and data cleaning algorithms for tabular data. The demonstrator is available at https://cured.demo.calgo-lab.de/

Predicting missing cell values in tabular data is a fundamental problem in data cleaning. While state-of-the-art reasoning models show great promise in predicting missing values in tables, by reasoning holistically across rows and columns, they are costly to deploy at scale and tend to be overconfident, often generating hallucinated or false-positive predictions. In this paper, we observe that achieving high-precision missing-value prediction in tables requires a distinct combination of three capabilities: (1) world knowledge, (2) text-based reasoning, and (3) code-based reasoning. We systematically explore design choices for combining these capabilities, and propose an Auto-Fill approach that post-trains three specialist small language models (SLMs), each optimized for one capability. We develop a calibrated ensemble mechanism that either dynamically selects the most confident specialist or abstains, ensuring high accuracy. Extensive experiments on 11 benchmarks with 2200 real tables drawn from diverse domains show that Auto-Fill achieves superior accuracy compared to state-of-the-art reasoning models (e.g., o3-pro, Gemini 3 Pro, and DeepSeek R1), while operating at a fraction (less than 1%) of the cost of these frontier models. Our results highlight the effectiveness of specialization and calibrated abstention in the important domain of tabular data. Auto-Fill is publicly available at https://github.com/lyrain2001/auto-fill.

Time series classification is central to domains like medical signal analysis, industrial monitoring, and sensor-based activity recognition, where class information manifests as localized shapes, specific frequencies, temporal shifts, or complex cross-channel interactions. Random convolutional transforms efficiently map these sequences to fixed-dimensional tabular features but are traditionally paired with simple linear classifiers. We investigate whether a pretrained tabular foundation model can more effectively harness these rich representations. We propose MASHT, a pipeline that marries MultiRocket and Hydra features with the power of in-context tabular foundation models. By leveraging a pretrained tabular foundation model, our approach completely bypasses task-specific model training, requiring only feature extraction and direct inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MASHT matches state-of-the-art time series classification baselines on univariate tasks, achieving a lower average rank than HIVE-COTE 2.0. On multivariate datasets, MASHT remains highly competitive with the strongest reference methods.

TabPFN is a transformer-based foundation model for tabular prediction that performs inference without task-specific training by conditioning on a support set and query inputs. Despite its strong empirical performance, its internal behavior on structurally difficult tabular geometries remains poorly understood. We study this behavior using zigzag persistent homology, treating TabPFN layer representations as evolving point clouds. We construct a controlled benchmark of synthetic tabular tasks with known true probabilities and varied intrinsic topology, including warped circles, tori, spheres, Hopf links, trefoil knots, and Swiss rolls. Across these tasks, we find that the topology of TabPFN's internal representation geometry is strongly associated with dataset-level reliability; for example, the zeroth homology group $H_0$ fragmentation count correlates positively with mean absolute residual across controlled tasks, and this association strengthens in a high-resolution warped circle case study at large sample size. Harder geometries induce a dual topological signature: increased $H_1$ loop activity and increased $H_0$ fragmentation, while the $H_1$ persistence becomes shorter-lived. These descriptors correlate with Bayes error, mean absolute residuals, and overconfidence. Our results suggest that zigzag persistence diagnoses the reliability of the inferred in-context task geometry and provides a context-level view of when TabPFN operates in topologically stressed regimes.

Tables are a critical knowledge source in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), but a retrieved table may lack sufficient evidence to answer a query, a property we call answerability. While answerability broadly concerns whether a source or collection of sources contains sufficient evidence, retrieval models optimized for semantic relevance do not guarantee it even in the single-source case, creating a fundamental mismatch. To study this, we introduce TCR-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark for Table Content-level Answerability in RAG, built around sibling tables, i.e., tables with highly similar schemas but subtle content differences. On TCR-Bench, the dense retrievers we evaluate persistently exhibit a Semantic-Answerability Gap: they often retrieve the correct sibling group yet struggle to pinpoint the uniquely answerable table within it, dropping QA performance from 0.755 (oracle) to 0.330 (top-5 retrieved). Our analysis suggests this gap is associated with semantic accumulation, schema-level cue dependence, and weak row-column binding. As a diagnostic probe into the source of this gap, we test whether a lightweight two-stage pipeline, Answerability-Aware Reranking (AAR), applying direct query-table answerability judgment, can recover performance: it raises top-1 target retrieval from 18.2% to 57.4%, and this large gain is itself evidence that much of the observed failure reflects a missing answerability verification step, rather than an inherent limitation of model capacity alone.

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) link transcription factor (TF) proteins to their target genes, yet reconstructing these networks from genome-wide data remains challenging under practical and methodological constraints. Many methods couple modeling assumptions to a specific inference procedure and rely on heuristic model selection, while evaluation is constrained by incomplete reference networks and point-estimate outputs that lack uncertainty. GRN reconstruction also depends on prior knowledge to constrain TF-gene interactions, yet available priors are often assay-dependent and difficult to transfer across species and less-characterized systems. In this thesis, we develop two complementary frameworks that address these limitations. In the first, PMF-GRN casts GRN inference as a probabilistic graphical model optimized by variational inference, enabling principled model selection and uncertainty-aware edge estimates. In the second, GLM-Prior addresses the prior bottleneck by fine-tuning the pretrained Nucleotide Transformer to predict TF-target gene interactions directly from nucleotide sequence, while generalizing across yeast, mouse, and human settings. Together, PMF-GRN and GLM-Prior motivate a dual-stage view of GRN reconstruction in which sequence-derived priors provide a transferable starting scaffold and probabilistic inference refines regulatory estimates with quantified uncertainty under incomplete evaluation resources.

Data-driven pre-fault dynamic security assessment (DSA) rapidly evaluates the dynamic risk of credible contingencies on a power system using machine learning. Existing approaches face two limitations. First, they require a large labelled database for training, with a separate model trained, tuned, and maintained for each contingency in a potentially long list of credible contingencies. Second, the trained models generalize poorly to unseen contingencies. This work addresses the limitations by using a tabular foundation model (TFM) that assesses stability through in-context learning, requiring no retraining or hyperparameter optimization. A single TFM can assess many contingencies at once, removing the need for one model per classifier. We also characterize when the use of electrical distance coordinates (EDC) as continuous features enables generalization of TFM to unseen contingencies and when they do not, demonstrating how a few labelled samples can reliably improve generalization. Through comprehensive case studies on the IEEE 68-bus system, we show that a single TFM attains an average Macro F1 score of about 90% with only 120 labelled samples per contingency, roughly two orders of magnitude fewer than conventionally assumed, without any model retraining or hyperparameter tuning. For new/unseen contingencies, we show that using just 10 labelled samples of the new contingency with EDC encoding matches the best achievable transfer learning oracle model, which requires fully labelled data and is not deployable in practice. Overall, this initial study paves the way towards developing and deploying foundation models for power system operations, with possible applications across multiple operational tasks.

Financial question answering over hybrid tabular and textual data may require multi-source reasoning and precise numerical computation. While large language models (LLMs) can generate intermediate reasoning steps, natural-language rationales remain prone to arithmetic errors, making them an unreliable supervision source for distillation. Building on programmatic distillation, we develop an approach that transfers reliable numerical reasoning from a large teacher model to a compact student using execution-verified Python programs instead of free-form textual rationales. It leverages gold derivations to guide teacher-side program synthesis and retains only programs that execute correctly and produce the gold answer, ensuring high-quality supervision. We further introduce an iterative recovery stage that revisits teacher-failed examples, enabling the student to recover and incorporate newly verified programs into training. Experiments on TAT-QA show that our framework is highly effective for hybrid financial reasoning. Our best 7B student achieves 87.00 EM / 87.18 F1 on the test set, substantially outperforming the 72B teacher (78.46 EM) as well as traditional and strong LLM-based baselines, including TAGOP and TAT-LLM. These results demonstrate that execution-verified programmatic distillation provides an effective and extensible framework for training smaller models to perform reliable numerical reasoning.

LLM-as-a-judge is widely used to provide feedback and selection signals in closedloop regeneration, but this use remains insufficiently validated. We study it in table recognition, where deterministic TEDS evaluation provides a controlled testbed, using FinTabNet and OmniDocBench. Three findings emerge. First, judge signals were weak on both datasets: scores frequently tied, rankings were not reproducible, and the only selection policy that beat random on both datasets depended on an earliest-iteration tie rule, so its advantage cannot be attributed to the judge scores alone. Iteration produced better candidates, but the judge failed to recover them. Second, severe losses occurred even without specific judge feedback. A structurepreserving instruction significantly reduced the severe-loss rate on FinTabNet and was directionally consistent on OmniDocBench. The contrasts support target-preservation failure under unconstrained regeneration as a proximate mechanism of the observed severe losses. Third, the structure-preservation constraint reduced the severe-loss tail but produced no improvement. In an exploratory 2x2 analysis, the same protection was not stably observed when judge feedback was retained. These results do not dispute the value of LLMs as evaluators. Instead, they show that evaluation ability does not imply optimization utility. Iterative refinement requires, at minimum, a verification signal that deterministically detects structural change, rather than judge scores alone.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) generate predictions on structured data via in-context learning, without task-specific estimation. We ask whether TFMs can be effectively applied to discrete choice, a central demand estimation framework in marketing and operations, and find that directly applying TFMs yields limited performance. The gap is structural: TFMs assume row-independent observations, whereas discrete choice is inherently set-valued and subject to persistent consumer preference heterogeneity. We propose a reformulation that encodes both choice-set dependence and individual heterogeneity within a row-based learning framework. Evaluated on a yogurt scanner panel, individual-level heterogeneity encoding is the dominant driver of predictive accuracy. The best reformulation outperforms hierarchical Bayesian estimation by 8% in holdout log-likelihood and 3.6% in hit rate, running 16 times faster, a practical advantage for large-scale demand estimation. The advantage is largest in the medium-data regime (10--40 purchase occasions per consumer), where parametric Bayesian shrinkage most distorts estimates for atypical consumers. Fine-tuning on population choice data provides additional gains for consumers with shallow purchase histories, where in-context learning has limited individual-specific signal to condition on. These results establish a principled approach for applying foundation models to consumer choice problems more broadly.

Retrieval in the SQL setting has largely been studied as the task of finding, within a large collection of SQL statements, the statement that answers a natural-language question. At scale, however, a more fundamental retrieval problem precedes generation: schema retrieval, identifying the tables and columns a question requires in a database that may contain thousands of them, far more than fit in a model's context. We argue that this step warrants first-class evaluation. To this end, we recast five text-to-SQL datasets (Spider, BIRD, BEAVER, and two LiveSQLBench variants) as retrieval tasks at both table and column granularity, covering realistic and enterprise-scale schemas under two document representations, and we show that off-the-shelf text and code embedders transfer poorly to this setting. We then propose corpus-adaptive fine-tuning: natural-language queries are synthesized directly from the target schema corpus, granularity-aware hard negatives are mined, and a 305M-parameter embedder is fine-tuned contrastively. This procedure raises average recall@10 from 60.4 to 75.6 (nDCG@10 from 51.9 to 68.0), making the 305M model the strongest retriever under one billion parameters and competitive with state-of-the-art embedders of 4-8B parameters, more than an order of magnitude larger. The same recipe improves an 8B state-of-the-art embedder from 77.8 to 78.4 recall@10, matching the best result on the benchmark and indicating that the adaptation is backbone-agnostic. Leave-one-corpus-out experiments and a leakage audit show that these gains reflect a transferable schema-retrieval ability rather than memorization of the evaluation data. Our results establish schema linking as a standalone retrieval task and lightweight, label-free corpus adaptation as a practical route to deploying it at enterprise scale.

Causal discovery from observational tabular data remains fundamentally challenging, primarily due to the heterogeneity of underlying causal mechanisms and the high-dimensional combinatorial search space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs). In this paper, we propose \textbf{DAG-FM}, a novel foundation model architecture that amortizes causal discovery. Unlike direct matrix prediction, DAG-FM decomposes the causal discovery process into two auto-regressive stages using two specialized Transformer-based sub-modules: a leaf-node predictor and a parent-node predictor. To effectively model complex row-column interactions, we adopt a robust tabular interaction block to output feature-wise representations. Crucially, to handle diverse and unknown Functional Causal Model (FCM) assumptions in real-world scenarios, we introduce Mixture-of-Leaf-Experts (MoLE), allowing the model to dynamically route and adapt to identifiable mechanism families. Through an iterative inference algorithm, DAG-FM seamlessly extracts causal orderings and constructs valid DAGs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DAG-FM achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic benchmarks and complex real-world datasets, significantly outperforming traditional classical algorithms and recent foundation models in both accuracy and scalability.

Graph Foundation Models (GFMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for learning transferable representations across diverse graph domains. Recent advancements in GFMs have been largely dominated by two paradigms: Graph Neural Network and Large Language Model (LLM) based methods. However, these methods often face a fundamental dilemma between training with limited data and a heavy reliance on textual attributes. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) offer a potential alternative, as node features and representations can be naturally organized in a tabular form. However, how to enable TFMs to effectively capture structural information of graphs remains largely unexplored. The key challenge is to learn a graph-to-table alignment mechanism that enables graph structural understanding for TFMs. To address this, we propose GTAlign, a surprisingly simple yet effective Graph-to-Table Alignment framework for text-free Graph Foundation Model. Specifically, we first pretrain a graph encoder that maps diverse graphs into a unified latent space to capture domain-agnostic graph representations. To further bridge the gap between graph topology and the tabular representation space, we propose community-guided continual pre-training, where pseudo-labels derived from graph community are used to construct few-shot prediction episodes. Lastly, we adapt the graph encoder for an unseen target domain and perform in-context inference. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets demonstrate that GTAlign significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both node and graph classification, offering a simple, effective, and text-free GFM model. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Dual-source trolleybuses alternate between overhead catenary supply and on-board battery operation, creating energy-use patterns driven by route attributes, high-frequency trajectories, and hourly weather. Existing models struggle to represent these heterogeneous inputs and rarely explain the causal drivers of consumption. This paper proposes a time-aware tabular deep learning framework for inter-stop energy management. Periodic time encoding is integrated into a parameter-efficient batch-ensemble backbone to jointly learn static and sequential features, while Bayesian optimization with tree-structured density estimation tunes hyperparameters. To move beyond prediction, a three-layer causal explanation pipeline combines feature attribution for marginal effects, a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model for causal direction discovery, and a meta-learner for net average treatment effects. Experiments on the Zurich trolleybus dataset enriched with meteorological records achieve a MAPE of 6.52% and R of 0.982, outperforming ten statistical, tree-ensemble, and deep learning baselines. Ablation results show that periodic time encoding contributes most to the accuracy gain. Causal analysis identifies regenerative braking ratio and average speed as the strongest energy-saving factors, while coasting distance is the main driver of excess consumption. The findings offer actionable thresholds for vehicle technology, driving behavior, capacity allocation, and catenary network planning.

Table-based reasoning with large language models (LLMs), which requires reasoning based on natural language questions and structured tabular data, has gained widespread attention. However, a series of issues still constrain the application of this task. The previous approaches suffered from significant performance degradation when faced with large tables due to the difficulty of long text modeling and the limitation of input length for LLMs. The text-to-SQL approach is used to efficiently extract key information from tables and generate smaller sub-tables. However, tabular data, especially web tables, often lack the necessary structure and consistency, making them unsuitable for performing mathematical logic operations using SQL queries. We propose the ProgramTab framework, which guides LLMs employing in-context learning to perform tabular data preprocessing with Python code, as well as the momentous contents extraction with row and column extraction and SQL generation. The experiment results on table reasoning datasets demonstrate that the ProgramTab framework effectively deals with table-based reasoning tasks and outperforms all LLM-based baselines.

Few-shot multimodal classification commonly attaches a lightweight head, such as $k$-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, or a linear SVM, to a frozen pretrained encoder. Although computationally efficient, these heads can produce poorly calibrated confidence scores, limiting their reliability in calibration-sensitive applications. We evaluate TabPFN as a plug-and-play, zero-gradient classification head for frozen image, text, and audio encoders. Across 22{,}820 evaluation episodes spanning 14 datasets, 11 encoders, and three modalities, TabPFN achieves the best mean rank among nine classification heads on both negative log-likelihood (NLL) and expected calibration error (ECE). At a representative setting, it reduces NLL by 48--62% and ECE by 2.1--5.3$\times$ relative to the average of the eight baselines while matching or exceeding their average accuracy. Its accuracy advantage is conditional, concentrating at moderate-to-high shot counts and low-to-moderate feature dimensions ($k \ge 50$, $d \le 32$), and diminishing when labeled data are scarce, feature dimensions are high, or competing methods approach ceiling accuracy. In targeted backbone-adaptation experiments, replacing the trained linear head with TabPFN substantially improves calibration while preserving competitive accuracy. These results provide empirical guidance for using TabPFN as a training-free head in calibration-sensitive multimodal classification. To support transparency and reproducibility, we publicly release the source code, experiment configurations, and evaluation scripts in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/Jingxiang-Zhang/tabpfn-multimodal-embeddings.

With the development of generative AI, watermarking techniques have been widely used to detect the authenticity of AI-generated data and protect the rights of users and creators. While it is already well applied in data types including imaging and text data, watermarking tabular data is still under-explored. Existing methods primarily focus on numerical data, leaving discrete, categorical, and mixed data less studied. In this work, we propose STAMP (Single-observation Tabular Attribution and Marking Procedure), a novel framework for watermarking tabular data that can accommodate and preserve a wide range of distributions. We also develop a corresponding detection mechanism, which can reliably identify watermarks even when the sample size is as small as one. We establish theoretical guarantees for asymptotic consistency and detection accuracy. Finally, through extensive simulation studies and two real-data applications, we demonstrate that the proposed method is effective and robust to subsetting, while maintaining data fidelity and a high detection rate.

Tabular learning is still dominated by gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs), while recent deep learning approaches have become increasingly competitive. However, applying deep tabular models to large-scale datasets remains challenging, as large sample sizes, high feature dimensionality, or many target classes can introduce substantial computational cost. We propose TabLoRA, a parameter-efficient trainable neural ensemble for large-scale tabular learning. Instead of using fully independent ensemble backbones, TabLoRA shares a common backbone across predictors and introduces predictor-specific low-rank adaptations, enabling ensemble-style prediction without full parameter duplication. Across benchmarks, TabLoRA achieves a favorable balance between predictive performance and practical efficiency compared with GBDT methods and recent deep learning baselines under the same resource constraints. Memory analysis and ablation studies further show that the proposed design improves the feasibility of neural ensemble learning while preserving much of the benefit of full ensembles.

Multimodal learning usually requires a dedicated encoder per modality. When a tabular modality is involved, prior work has been mostly using a \emph{plain MLP} as the encoder. Yet if it were a strong encoder, the tabular domain would not be ``the last unconquered castle for deep learning''. This study evaluates state-of-the-art tabular models as encoders in the image-tabular setting for the first time. An obstacle stands out. In-Context Learning models, among the best performing methods in the tabular domain, require labels to process instances, making it non-trivial to embed training and test instances the same way. We addressed this problem across multiple models of this family. With this study, we would like to highlight the importance of encoder factor in the multimodal learning.

Inherently interpretable classifiers for tabular data typically rely on sparse features, rules, or patterns that users can inspect directly. The marginal feature-screening step common to these methods can discard variables whose predictive value emerges only through joint configurations with other variables. We present Interaction Aware Interpretable Machine Learning (IAIML), a framework that addresses this limitation through three coordinated mechanisms: adaptive per-feature discretization, finite-grid pairwise interaction scoring, and a partitioned explanation budget. Detected interactions are routed through one of two strategies: relaxing the screening filter so that interaction-supported variables enter the pattern search, or constructing explicit pair terms for a sparse downstream classifier. On a 40-dataset panel comprising 24 real-world tabular benchmarks and 16 synthetic interaction stress tests, evaluated under nested cross-validation, IAIML achieves mean AUC within 1.4 points of tuned gradient-boosted ensembles while requiring roughly 14--28 times fewer fitted explanation components. On datasets with strong pairwise interaction structure and low marginal signal, IAIML outperforms all baselines. Among compact interpretable methods, IAIML is comparable to RuleFit in AUC and component count and is less expensive to tune. EBM obtains a small but significant AUC advantage across the full panel, with a substantially larger lookup-table footprint. Performance degrades on datasets requiring higher-order interactions beyond the pairwise scope. Component-isolated ablations confirm that adaptive discretization and interaction-aware admission each contribute incrementally. These results support IAIML as a compact, interaction-aware framework appropriate for settings where bounded explanation size and controlled treatment of feature interactions are design requirements.

In deep learning for tabular data, efficient ensembles of multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) have recently emerged as effective and practical architectures. Existing methods of this kind use the same hyperparameters for all underlying MLPs, which requires hyperparameter tuning for achieving the best performance. In this work, we introduce TabPack, an efficient MLP ensemble with strong out-of-the-box performance and reduced reliance on traditional tuning. In a single run, TabPack samples and trains many MLPs with different hyperparameters efficiently in parallel and selects ensemble members on the fly during training. Thus, TabPack only requires specifying ranges from which to sample MLP hyperparameter rather than exact hyperparameter values, which naturally demands less precision for good performance. In experiments on medium-to-large public datasets, TabPack with default settings performs on par with extensively tuned prior methods, thus substantially reducing effort and compute resources needed to achieve competitive results on tabular tasks. Notably, running the default TabPack configuration on a modern MacBook took less time than tuning some baselines on an industry-grade GPU.

Parallel ensemble methods were compared on $56$ small-to-medium tabular classification tasks drawn from OpenML CC18. A set of ``best practice'' recommendations on the use of ensemble methods was derived from these observations. It was later validated on 28 additional tasks using TabArena's precomputed data, where the recommendation set significantly outperformed Single Best and matched or exceeded individual ensemble methods. Two key observations were made. First, Blending and Stacking are inconsistent, but their inconsistencies are independent and happen on different tasks. Second, while Hard Voting's probabilistic classification is rather weak, a consequence of using vote proportions as posterior estimates, Robust Soft Voting's probabilistic classification is particularly successful, especially in the multiclass case.

Given a relational database (RDB) storing heterogeneous tabular information, how can we predict missing (or future) values in some target column of interest? As the space of potential targets is vast across enterprise settings, it is preferable to avoid learning a new model from scratch each time there is a new prediction task. Frozen foundation models based on RDB-specific encoders provide a viable solution, but ideal design remains an open question. On the one hand, it has recently been argued that certain parameter-free subgraph encoders combined with single-table foundation models can achieve near SOTA performance, with no RDB-specific pre-training required. Meanwhile, other contemporary studies advocate for parameterized encoders pre-trained to exploit observable labels for learning task-specific representations. To address this ambiguity, we analyze RDB encoder properties specifically when labels are present as inputs, proving limitations on the potential efficacy of trainable encoder parameters. As empirical validation, we demonstrate that considerably simpler parameter-free encoders are still capable of strong performance across many relevant benchmarking tasks.

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have demonstrated strong empirical performance as black-box inference engines through in-context learning. However, their use in transfer learning is limited by two obstacles: strict context-size constraints and sensitivity to distribution shifts between source and target tasks. Directly pooling heterogeneous source data can therefore lead to negative transfer. To address these challenges, we propose Context-Constrained Transfer Learning via ANchoring and DIstillation (TL-ANDI), a posterior-aware distillation framework for TFMs. TL-ANDI constructs a compact source context by solving a budget-constrained optimal transport problem whose cost jointly measures target covariate coverage and posterior compatibility. The selected anchor samples are then equipped with locally distilled labels and combined with a residual calibration step using target data.

Learning from few labeled examples is a central challenge in tabular machine learning, and it becomes the binding constraint in domains where labeling is costly, such as crowd monitoring during Hajj and Umrah. Tabular foundation models, which predict from only a handful of examples without task-specific training, were recently introduced to address this very-few-label regime. In this study we test them on crowd-state classification to assess how much they help when labels are scarce, and we compare them against standard machine learning methods to characterize the accuracy and efficiency trade-offs between the two approaches. Using three real datasets we evaluate different machine learning models, in untuned and tuned forms, against three foundation models. Results show that no single family is best everywhere. The right choice depends on the label budget. When labels are very few, foundation models lead. As labels grow, tuned conventional models catch up and significantly surpass the foundation models on the more structural geometry target. Efficiency separates them further where tuned machine learning models incur a large tuning cost that foundation models avoid, although foundation models reprocess their context at every prediction. We summarize these results as a practical map of which approach to prefer under a given label budget and computational budget.

Synthetic tabular data support use cases like data sharing, model development under access restrictions, and rapid prototyping of analytical workflows. Modern generative models are evaluated by their statistical similarity, correlation structure, privacy, and downstream machine-learning utility. However, such evaluations leave a gap: they rarely test the structure that matters for analytical queries. We present TabQueryBench, a query-centric benchmark that uses SQL-shaped analytical queries as structural assessors for synthetic data fidelity. It provides an extensible foundation for query-centric synthetic-data evaluation. From 12 public sources of analytical queries, TabQueryBench taxonomizes recurring cross-domain logic into 44 reusable query templates and grounds them to each dataset via a policy-guided template-to-SQL pipeline. This makes queries schema-aware while preserving comparability across generative models. Across 49 datasets and 11 generative models, it activates 10-12 templates per dataset, producing more than 100 executable SQL queries per dataset. Our systematic experiments show five main patterns. First, current tabular generative models can have good distance-based fidelity, but they still fall short on query-centric fidelity: RealTabFormer achieves the highest query-centric fidelity, but it only reaches 0.75 +/- 0.15 (REAL data score is 1.00). Second, tabular generative models struggle with very high-cardinality discrete support. Third, SOTA generative models preserve good global conditional query-centric fidelity, but fail more on local queries. Fourth, tail fidelity deteriorates as queries move toward the extreme tail; even the best model recovers only about 40.7% of real rare values. Finally, there is a fidelity-cost tradeoff in tabular generation: BayesNet offers the strongest tradeoff, with slightly lower query-centric fidelity but much lower generation cost.

Fast estimation of the size of the largest overlap between tables enables blocking and query-by-table retrieval in large table repositories. The first and the state-of-the-art estimator Armadillo improves efficiency by embedding each table independently and approximating overlap ratio via embedding similarity. However, accurate estimation in heterogeneous repositories remains limited by three challenges: (C1) overlap depends on row-column structure, i.e., each matched cell must preserve both its row and column membership under a joint alignment of the two tables, but existing encodings leave this structure to be inferred indirectly; (C2) independent encoding provides no explicit channel for inter-table alignment signals, biasing prediction toward global similarity; (C3) naive value encodings overfit to corpus-specific distributions, causing cross-domain degradation. Hence, we propose ALORE, a scalable and domain-robust overlap ratio estimator built on three principles: (P1) explicitly represent row-column structure; (P2) expose inter-table alignment signals during training without expensive alignment search; (P3) reduce sensitivity to corpus-specific value distributions. ALORE instantiates these principles with a Two-View Row-Column Hypergraph encoder, alignment-guided objectives with inexpensive interaction signals, and a domain-robust value mapping. Experiments on multiple datasets spanning diverse domains and scales, including a large real-world corpus beyond prior benchmarks, show that ALORE outperforms the state of the art. ALORE reduces MAE by up to 55% overall and 69% in zero-shot transfer, while achieving up to 89x speedup. We further validate its effectiveness for query-by-table retrieval.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong zero-shot forecasting performance, but their generalization in covariate-driven, non-stationary settings is underexplored. Electricity price forecasting (EPF) presents a challenging testbed due to complex temporal dependencies, distributional shifts, and strong reliance on structural and contextual information. We propose a two-dataset-benchmarking framework for EPF to mitigate contamination risk and enable fair evaluation of TSFMs. We examine key aspects of EPF including point and probabilistic forecasting performance, tail behavior, price spikes, and comparisons against domain-specific methods. We find that TSFMs are highly competitive and often outperform general-purpose baselines. Yet, their performance depends critically on covariate support, and they do not consistently surpass domain-specific methods tailored to EPF. Interestingly, simple ensembles of TSFMs and domain-specific methods appear to have significant potential, suggesting that the two approaches capture complementary predictive information.

Table extraction from business documents relies on a cascaded pipeline where Table Detection (TD) first localizes tables and Table Structure Recognition (TSR) then recovers their internal layout. Building task-specific training sets for this pipeline is costly, particularly for TSR which requires fine-grained structural annotations. Active learning (AL) can reduce this annotation burden, yet most AL strategies are designed for single-model tasks and do not account for inter-stage dependencies in cascaded architectures. In this work, we present the first adaptation of Uncertainty Herding (UHerding), a hybrid coverage-uncertainty sampling method originally proposed for image classification, to cascaded object detection pipelines. We propose two pipeline-aware extensions that exploit the TD-to-TSR dependency: RankFusion adds dual-manifold coverage over both detection and structure representation spaces, while CAPA further incorporates stage-dependent gating and per-task uncertainty calibration. Extensive experiments across two public (PubTables-1M and FinTabNet) and two private table extraction datasets, with various annotation budgets (from 71 to 500 documents) show that UHerding generalizes well to table extraction, outperforming each baseline. Among pipeline-aware variants, RankFusion achieves higher expected gains but at the cost of greater variance, while CAPA emerges as the most consistent strategy, outperforming standard UHerding on three out of four datasets.

Table Structure Recognition (TSR) aims to recover the row and column layout of tables from document images, a key step in document understanding pipelines. Accurate TSR depends on precise boundary localization: small errors in row or column boundaries can propagate into incorrect cell assignments and structural inconsistencies. Yet detection-based approaches treat table elements as generic objects, ignoring a fundamental property of table layout: rows and columns play structurally distinct roles and their boundaries carry unequal importance. We propose an Edge-constrained Fine-grained Localization loss (EFL) that formalizes this structural asymmetry by encoding table-specific geometric priors into the training objective: row-like elements are supervised with emphasis on their horizontal boundaries, while column-like elements prioritize vertical boundaries. Implemented within a real-time detector with distribution-based boundary refinement (D-FINE), EFL operates during training only and guides boundary refinement toward structurally meaningful adjustments with no change to the inference pipeline. The proposed approach, ConRTF, is also data-efficient, maintaining robust accuracy with as few as 2k--3k annotated tables. Experiments on PubTables-1M and two private datasets show consistent improvements over the optimized baseline and several real-time detectors including RT-DETRv2 and YOLOv10-11, with gains of up to +1.6 GriTS points at equal inference speed.

We investigate two approaches for extending CEGAR-tableaux with SAT-shortcuts using a previously known approach called RECAR but also a totally new approach using the modal resolution theorem prover KSP as an oracle. Our experiments using our C++ implementation CEGARBox++ of CEGAR-tableaux show that: (1) CEGARBox++ with RECAR SAT-shortcuts is not competitive (2) CEGARBox++ using KSP to provide SAT-shortcuts is superior to both CEGARBox++ and KSP, particularly on large satisfiable problems. As far as we know, this is the first effective integration of SAT, tableaux and resolution methods for modal satisfiability which performs better than its parts.

Large tabular models (LTMs), i.e., tabular foundation models leveraging in-context learning (ICL), achieve state-of-the-art performance on tabular tasks. While LLMs are known to unintentionally memorize training data, the memorization dynamics of LTMs remain largely unexplored. We investigate the potential for parametric memorization in tabular ICL. We introduce ICLMEM, a probing framework designed to separate context-based predictions from parametric memorization. Our zero-information multiple-choice context strips away valid contextual patterns to force the model to fall back on its parametric memory. Our controlled fine-tuning setup establishes membership ground truth and accounts for common pitfalls, e.g., distribution shift, feature contamination, base-rate fallacy, and the pre-trained base model acts as reference to calibrate for sample difficulty. Our controlled evaluation on a leading real-world-trained LTM detects moderate memorization signals in 8 out of 10 tasks ($\text{AUC}$ up to $0.67$ and TPR at $1\%$ FPR $>0.1$). Notably, memorization signals are strongest for low-cardinality and binary tasks. However, they largely vanish under realistic training conditions. Our findings show LTM memorization signals under specific circumstances (single-task fine-tuning with fixed samples across many epochs and small query size). To protect sensitive data, appropriate measures must be taken, which we discuss.

Predicting biomolecular properties from limited labeled data is a central bottleneck in protein engineering and small-molecule design. As strong pretrained encoders now supply rich fixed-length representations, the difficulty has shifted from representation learning to building a data-efficient predictor for the few-shot regime. Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL are unlikely candidates for this role: they are in-context learners pretrained on synthetic tables drawn from random causal graphs, a generative prior with no obvious correspondence to the processes that produce protein sequences or molecular graphs. That this tabular, causal inductive bias should transfer to biomolecular data at all is counter-intuitive, yet we find it does. Treating each method as a predictor-representation pair, we evaluate across two domains. We find that on protein fitness regression tasks these in-context learning models coupled with ESM Cambrian representations achieve or exceed state-of-the-art results on ProteinGym, and outperform task-specific supervised regressors on a diverse esterase catalytic activity dataset. For small-molecule classification with ECFP/RDKit descriptors, no single predictor-representation pairing dominates across TDC ADMET, MoleculeNet, FS-Mol, and DrugOOD, but they are competitive with the existing task-specific state-of-the-art. Crucially, on both protein and small-molecule few-shot tasks, these predictor-representation pairs offer strong performance. We conclude that tabular foundation models can be strong biomolecular predictors, but only when coupled with expressive representations.

Tabular data dominate the landscape of data science, increasingly attracting innovative machine learning models and tailored benchmarks. Yet, little is known for enterprise data, where tables constitute the backbone of business operations. To broaden the benchmarking landscape for business applications, this work aims to actualize the characteristics of enterprise data by providing an analysis of data statistics and performance measurements of tabular models such as TabPFN, TabICL and ConTextTab. Through our analysis, we find enterprise data markedly differ from tabular benchmarks and we demonstrate that a tabular model that performs well on typical tabular benchmarks may perform poorly on real world enterprise data -- and vice versa. This lack of generalization underlines the need for additional benchmarks with enterprise-grade characteristics.

Foundation models for predictive machine learning on tabular data have recently gained significant traction in academia and industry. Research communities across disciplines are increasingly evaluating tabular foundation models on diverse datasets and tasks. However, these task- and discipline-specific evaluations remain largely inaccessible to model researchers because benchmark software and evaluation protocols are fragmented. As a result, model researchers rely on standard benchmarks, which are mostly defined for tasks where tabular foundation models already excel. The most challenging scenarios are excluded, limiting meaningful progress in the field by focusing on marginal improvements on IID data rather than on broader, more demanding challenges. To overcome this, we introduce BeyondArena, the first unified holistic benchmark for tabular data that supports diverse task types (IID, temporal, grouped), across sample size and feature dimensionality scales, with diverse feature types (with text, with high cardinality) from a broad range of disciplines. To enable unified benchmarking beyond standard benchmarks, we introduce Data Foundry, a Python framework and metadata schema for curating tabular datasets for predictive machine learning. Our results across 11 models and 142 curated datasets show that existing tabular foundation models excel on tiny- to medium-sized IID data, while traditional tree-based and deep learning models still dominate on non-IID, large, and high-dimensional datasets. BeyondArena guides model research for the most demanding challenges in tabular data, enabling progress towards truly foundational tabular models.

We introduce FlexTab, a flexible encoder-decoder architecture for in-context learning on tabular data that pairs a single, task-agnostic encoder with a suite of task-specific decoders. Unlike existing tabular in-context learners, which entangle feature representations with a specific prediction target, our design produces target-agnostic row embeddings that can be leveraged across a wide range of downstream tasks within a table-native in-context learning setup. We demonstrate this flexibility on six distinct problems: classification, regression, anomaly detection, clustering, entity matching, and entity classification in relational databases. Both the encoder and the task-specific decoders are trained on a large corpus of real-world, unlabeled tables. FlexTab achieves state-of-the-art performance on classification, regression, anomaly detection and entity matching, while remaining competitive with specialized models on entity classification in a relational setting. These results demonstrate that a single shared encoder, paired with task-specific decoders, can serve as an effective general-purpose backbone for diverse tabular prediction problems. The inference code and checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/SAP-samples/flextab.

Tabular foundation models have advanced deep learning for tabular data by delivering strong default performance across many small and medium tasks. Yet in niche domains, where data is scarce, high-dimensional, and shifted from the pretraining distribution, they may still fail to outperform carefully designed domain-specific methods. Many such domains also provide curated relational knowledge in the form of knowledge graphs and knowledge banks, but how to use this knowledge to improve and steer \textit{small} specialist tabular foundation models remains unclear. We address this problem through \textbf{Know}ledge-informed fine-tuning of \textbf{s}mall \textbf{T}abular \textbf{F}oundation \textbf{M}odels (\modelname). Specifically, we study nanoscale TabPFN- and TabICL-style variants, pretrained under controlled synthetic prior families and adapted using two complementary mechanisms: structural attention priors derived from knowledge graphs and parameter-efficient low-rank updates. We show that injecting domain-specific structural knowledge during fine-tuning yields meaningful gains over vanilla variants in specialist settings, whereas gains on general-domain tasks are marginal. We further observe that continual fine-tuning of frontier models can trigger collapse of pretrained knowledge and mechanisms.

Structured tabular data dominates clinical medicine, yet existing benchmarks fail to reflect real-world properties like complex survey sampling, demographic oversampling, and subgroup fairness. We introduce the NHANES Accelerometry Cardiometabolic Benchmark, derived from NHANES 2003-2006, comprising 1,381 adults with hip-worn accelerometry, fasting laboratory biomarkers, dietary intake, and anthropometrics. We evaluate three tabular learning methods -- ridge regression, XGBoost, and the foundation model TabPFN v2 -- to predict glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting triglycerides, and C-reactive protein (CRP) from activity phenotypes and lifestyle covariates. TabPFN v2 achieves the best overall performance (HbA1c R^2=0.156, CRP R^2=0.383), while triglycerides remain largely unpredictable (R^2 < 0.05), consistent with known genetic dominance. We apply split conformal prediction to generate distribution-free 90% prediction intervals and evaluate demographic coverage equity across sex and race/ethnicity subgroups. Marginal coverage aligns with the 90% target for CRP and HbA1c but falls below for triglycerides. At the subgroup level, we observe localized undercoverage (e.g., HbA1c for Mexican American participants), illustrating the gap between marginal guarantees and the conditional coverage required for clinical fairness. Code and data are at https://github.com/felizzi/nhanes-accel-cardiometabolic-benchmark.

Real-time strategy (RTS) games present significant AI challenges, characterized by expansive state-action spaces arising from multi-unit coordination in continuous battlefields, and sparse delayed rewards stemming from final win/lose signals. Existing approaches face a trade-off between managing the dimensionality explosion of joint actions and maintaining the interpretability of complex state representations. This complexity is further intensified by the limitation of traditional hierarchical structures in adaptively decomposing tasks into effective tactical modules. Such difficulties are compounded by the black-box nature of deep learning models and their reliance on sparse rewards, which together result in limited sample efficiency and a lack of decision-making transparency. To address these limitations, this paper proposes HRL-IM/CBS, a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework with influence map hashing and cluster-based scripts for StarCraft micromanagement. Influence map hashing encodes global battlefield situations into compact hexadecimal codes, capturing spatial control and relative advantage. Cluster-based scripts enable dynamic local coordination through adaptive unit partitioning. The hierarchical multi-Q-table architecture decomposes decision-making into upper-level clustering strategy selection and lower-level tactical execution, with reward allocation providing dense learning signals. Experiments across six asymmetric scenarios demonstrate competitive performance against deep RL baselines while offering advantages in sample efficiency and interpretability through transparent Q-table representations.