Causal

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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  1. Guide, Not Bind: Why Defeasible Priors Fail in Augmented Lagrangian Causal Discovery

    Sep 3, 2026Sairam Sundararaman, Sara Girdhar, Manit Narasimha Murthy +2Causal Foundation ModelsSpurious Correlations

  2. It's the Problem, Not the Path: Budget and Difficulty Confounds in LLM Reasoning Trajectories

    Sep 3, 2026Yigit Utku BulutLarge Language Model ReasoningLarge Language Model Performance

  3. Portable Causal Fairness Across Synthetic Data Generator Families

    Sep 2, 2026Steven Golob, Sikha Pentyala, Martine De CockSynthetic DataGenerators

  4. Causal Foundation Models

    Sep 2, 2026Christopher Stith, Hossein Rahmani, Jesse C. CresswellCausal InferencesCausal Foundation Models

  5. The Structure of Quantization Damage in LLMs: Why the Next Bit Should Be Spent Globally

    Sep 1, 2026Jundong Hu, Shekar RamachandranLarge Language Model QuantizationQuantization

  6. Variable Selection for Feature-Based Newsvendor

    Sep 1, 2026Zhaoliang Yuan, Jie WangFeature SelectionMonotonic Inventory Estimation

  7. EvoSCM: Scientific Belief Revision Through Causal Model Evolution and Experimentation

    Sep 1, 2026Qing Zhao, Haowei Li, Weijian Deng +2Scientific DiscoveryScientific Agents

  8. Exploring Sparse Autoencoders in Text-Based Causal Confounding Adjustment

    Sep 1, 2026Mian Zhong, Katherine A. Keith, Anjalie FieldImproving Sparse AutoencodersLatent Confounders

  9. Some Emotions Run Deeper: Layer-wise Probing and Causal Intervention in Large Language Models

    Sep 1, 2026Tian Fang, Gaël Guibon, Davide BuscaldiEmotionText Corpora

  10. Replicating TRACE: A Practitioner's Guide to Its Threshold and Particle Budget

    Sep 1, 2026Alex Chadyuk, Alicia Zhang, Roy KucukatesCausal GraphDecision Thresholds

  11. Lagged Coupling: Internal Representations Become Readable Before They Become Causal

    Sep 1, 2026Xining XunCausal ReasoningReadout

  12. Causal Evidentiary Governance for High-Risk Machine Learning Systems

    Sep 1, 2026Samah Kareem, Barış ÇeliktaşCausal ReasoningFairness Audits

  13. Embedded Conditional Independence Tests for Large Language Model Generated Text with an Application to German Parliament Speeches

    Sep 1, 2026Marco Simnacher, Georg Keilbar, Benjamin König +2Conditional IndependenceLarge Language Model Generation

  14. Verifiable Disaster Storylines and Causal Knowledge Graphs: A Citation-Grounded Pipeline from Heterogeneous Humanitarian Sources

    Sep 1, 2026Ivan Decostanzi, Michele Ronco, Sergio Consoli +8Humanitarian ReportsCausal Graph

  15. CAER: Causal Action Effect Reweighting for World Model Training

    Aug 31, 2026Jianjie Fang, Xvyuan Liu, Ziyou Wang +9Efficient World-Action ModelCausal Reasoning

  16. Confounding Masquerading as Improvement: A Systematic Evaluation of Offline Reinforcement Learning for Stroke Antithrombotic Treatment in a 129,000-Patient Registry

    Aug 31, 2026Kihun RheeStrokeOffline Reinforcement Learning

  17. A Deep Latent Variable Framework for Jointly Modeling Missingness, Measurement Error, and Heterogeneity

    Aug 30, 2026Yasin Khadem Charvadeh, Grace Y. Yi, Mithat Gönen +1Missing DataImputation

  18. When Prediction Error Is Not Enough: Evaluating Nuisance-Function Prediction for Causal Estimation

    Aug 30, 2026Cong CaoCausal InferencesReward-Prediction Error

  19. Influence Is Not Authority: When Causal Guardrail Signals Make Legitimate Tool Use Look Like an Attack in Tool-Using LLM Agents

    Aug 30, 2026Tanzim Ahad, Ismail Hossain, Md Jahangir Alam +3Streaming GuardrailsFewer Tool-Call Errors

  20. Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectory

    Aug 30, 2026Zhe Aurore Li, Quentin Clairon, Cécilia Samieri +3Neural Ordinary Differential EquationsCovariate Shift

  21. Actionable CBFI: Integrating Structural Decomposition and Causal Counterfactual Recourse for Tabular Machine Learning

    Aug 28, 2026Sejong OhXaiFeature Importance

  22. Random Hazard Forests

    Aug 21, 2026Hemant Ishwaran, Eileen M. Hsich, Udaya B. Kogalur +1Time-To-Event DataRandom Forest

  23. Debiased Inference for AI-Generated Data without Gold-Standard Labels: Identification via Multiple Imperfect Measurements

    Aug 18, 2026Naoki Egami, Sooahn ShinOnline InferenceStatistical Inference

  24. A Unifying Perspective on Causal World Models: From Observations to Representations to Structure

    Aug 13, 2026Avinash Kori, Fabrizio RussoCausal Representation LearningWorld Models

  25. Context-Matched Distillation: Teacher Causality for Autoregressive Video Distillation

    Aug 13, 2026Hmrishav Bandyopadhyay, Xuanchi Ren, Zijian Huang +7Autoregressive Video GenerationPrompt Distillation

  26. Foundations of Independent Component Analysis

    Aug 13, 2026Patrick ForréIndependent Component AnalysisIdentifiability

  27. Discovering Efficient and Explainable Communication Topologies for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems via Causal Inference

    Aug 13, 2026Junzhi Li, Peng He, Qirui Ji +3Multi-Agent SystemsCommunication Efficiency

  28. Agent Behavioral Contracts II: Certifying Compositional Reliability Without Assuming Independence

    Aug 13, 2026Varun Pratap Bhardwaj, Garima Singh, Arun Pratap BhardwajMulti-Agent SystemsFailure Mechanism

  29. Correct Is Not Governed: Provenance Integrity in Agentic Workflows

    Aug 13, 2026Jesus SalasAgentic WorkflowsProvenance

  30. PatientAct: Theory-Grounded Mental Health Client Simulation

    Aug 13, 2026Sahand Sabour, TszYam NG, Yaqian Chen +3Simulated PatientsUser Simulation

  31. General Probabilities of Causation with Causal Knowledge

    Aug 12, 2026Xin Shu, Zhen Lei, Ang LiStructural Causal ModelCausal Reasoning

  32. Interpretable Causal Discovery via Causal-Effect Constraints

    Aug 12, 2026Cixuan Zhang, Guy Van den Broeck, Benjie WangCausal Foundation ModelsCausal Graph

  33. CAS: A Causal Attribution Score for Local and Global Explainable Artificial Intelligence

    Aug 12, 2026Michael Georgiades, Charalambia VarnavaShapley ValueExplainable Artificial Intelligence

  34. When Can You Trust Offline Evaluation of Equal-Cost Top-k Allocation? A Controlled, Reproducible Benchmark and Practitioner's Guide

    Aug 12, 2026Binshuang LiPropensityEstimators

  35. Learning Under Treatment-Induced Label Indeterminacy with Expert Annotations of Counterfactual Outcomes: A Case Study in Neurological Prognostication

    Aug 12, 2026Xiaobin Shen, Chloe Y. H. Huang, Jonathan Elmer +1PrognosticsClinical Prediction

  36. Causal inference for group-contaminated structured outcomes: observable quotients, lossless reduction and exact randomization inference

    Aug 12, 2026Usef Faghihi, Amir SakiCausal InferencesControlled Study

  37. Reading the Gate, Not the Interference: Output-Side Interference Measurement Does Not Track Merge Collapse

    Aug 12, 2026Chencheng ZhuSystematic Fp16 DivergenceCausal Reasoning

  38. GRPO for Financial Advice Generation: Outperforming Commercial LLMs under CATE Evaluation

    Aug 12, 2026Ofir Ben Shoham, Shrutendra Harsola, Vignesh Subrahmaniam +3Finance DomainLarge Language Model Decision-Making

  39. Causal Structure is Inducible but Functionally Decoupled: The Routing/Readout Boundary of a Typed Mechanism Library

    Aug 12, 2026Xining XunCausal ReasoningCausal Attention

  40. FunnelCausalNet: Funnel-aware Joint Conversion-Revenue Uplift for Multi-tier Coupon Allocation

    Aug 12, 2026Yu Zhang, Zhihan Wang, Guanlin Chen +2Click-Through Rate PredictionFunnel Efficiency

  41. Unmasking Toxic Mimicry in Medical Offline Reinforcement Learning for ICU Sepsis Management via Counterfactual Clinical Audits

    Aug 11, 2026Hangqi Ren, Junyi LiaoSepsisMimic-Iv Datasets

  42. Conditional Independence Tests for Constraint-Based Causal Discovery: A Survey

    Aug 11, 2026Pavel Averin, Theodoros Moysiadis, Ioannis KatakisConditional IndependenceCausal Foundation Models

  43. DACRI: Decision-Aware Causal Intervention Ranking for Critical Supply Chains

    Aug 11, 2026Shiqi Huang, Jiani He, Dingyan Shang +4Supply Chain OptimizationCausal Intervention

  44. CausalSplat: Towards Comprehensive Hierarchical Reasoning in 3D Gaussian Splatting

    Aug 11, 2026Jiayu Ding, Meilu Song, Yun Chen +23D Gaussian Splats3D Semantic Segmentation

  45. Evaluation Resolution Confounds Learning-Rule Comparisons in Model-Brain RSA of Early Visual Cortex

    Aug 11, 2026Nils LeuteneggerHuman Visual CortexResolution

  46. Certify or Refuse: A Cross-Model Map for Selective Risk Control with Coverage Floors under Covariate Shift

    Aug 11, 2026Jiamiao Liu, Dewen Qiao, Yu Zhang +1CertificationCovariate Shift

  47. Where To Look? : Causal Tracing of Vision Encoders in VLM

    Aug 11, 2026Naren Kumar S, Tirth Bhatt, Mayank SinghLarge Vision Language ModelsVision Encoders

  48. Operationalising Relative Causal Knowledge: Backbone Identifiability from Private Reports on a Shared Outcome

    Aug 11, 2026Fabrizio Russo, Mark SomersCausal ReasoningIdentifiability

  49. MARCO: Click-Intent Decomposition for Calibrated Ads Conversion Prediction

    Aug 11, 2026Shiwen Shen, Xiru Huang, Liang Luo +32Click-Through Rate PredictionAds

  50. Every Token Counts: Exact Likert-Scale Distributions for Measuring LLM Attitudes and Biases

    Aug 11, 2026Davood Wadi, Mohsen Ghodrat, Matthew PhilpLarge Language Model BiasLarge Language Model Evaluation

  51. Causality Sum Rules in Conventional Scattering Matrices

    Aug 11, 2026Ning Han, Rui Zhao, Shuxing Yang +3Causal Reasoning

  52. Expert-Guided g-computation with Large Language Models for Estimating Causal Effects on Timings: Applications to Hospital Quality Improvement

    Aug 11, 2026Patrick Vossler, Jialin Ouyang, F. Richard Guo +5Structural Causal ModelPatient Trajectories

  53. Frozen Brain-MRI Foundation Models Are Site Fingerprints

    Aug 10, 2026Saman RahbarBrain Magnetic Resonance ImagingFingerprint

  54. TAF-MED: Multi-Turn Safety Refusal Collapse in LLMs Under Declared Self-Treatment Intent

    Aug 10, 2026Waleed Jamil, Raphael SchmittLarge Language Model SafetySafety

  55. From Prediction to Incrementality: Causal Optimization for Large-Scale Targeting and Recommendation

    Aug 10, 2026Changshuai Wei, John Bencina, Phuc Nguyen +2Heterogeneous Treatment EffectsRecommendation

  56. Model Discovery Agent: LLM-assisted Bayesian experiment design for data-efficient discovery of mechanistic world models

    Aug 10, 2026Kevin MurphyHypothesis GenerationStructural Causal Model

  57. Capability Is Not Propensity: Measuring Pressure-Robust Cooperative Behavior in Civic LLM Agents

    Aug 10, 2026Neel Tushar Shah, Manglam Kartik, Akshat KarkarCooperationSocial Reasoning

  58. UNMASK: Discovering and Causally Verifying Spurious Shortcuts in Text Classifiers

    Aug 10, 2026Chidaksh Ravuru, Shashank SrivastavaSpurious CorrelationsUnlabeled Data

  59. An Agentic Generative Large Language Model for Treatment Planning of Colorectal Cancer

    Aug 10, 2026Mengxian Lyu, Cheng Peng, Tim Jang +18Colorectal CancerTreatment

  60. Deep probabilistic logic programming for diagnostic reasoning from incomplete information: A case study in stroke detection

    Aug 9, 2026Felix Weitkämper, Monchito Avila, Elizabeth Nanjala +2Inductive Logic ProgrammingProbabilistic Inference