Algorithmic Trading

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Overview

Algorithmic trading studies how to turn market data and other information into rules for selecting assets, managing portfolios, and placing orders. Common approaches include statistical and machine-learning factors, deep reinforcement learning for portfolio choice or execution, market-making models, and newer language-model agents for research and strategy generation. Researchers test these systems with historical walk-forward backtests, limit-order-book simulations, and increasingly prospective or live evaluations, measuring returns alongside risk and trading costs. A central challenge is showing that apparent gains survive data leakage controls, changing market regimes, execution frictions, and the feedback effects of deploying similar strategies.

Latest papers

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149 papers27 papers in the last four weeks, up 59% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

May 27, 2026

Paper Agents, Paper Gains: An Empirical Analysis of DeFi Investment Agents

DeFi investment agents, systems that use AI for autonomous on-chain trading, have attained over USD 3 billion in combined token valuations since late 2024. We survey over 1,900 AI-tagged crypto projects, filter to investment-focused agents, and curate 10 representative projects spanning strategy and observability dimensions. We then conduct a deep-dive architectural analysis of two prominent agent frameworks, ElizaOS and Virtuals Protocol, and a quantitative on-chain performance analysis of 11 Solana-based agent treasuries with publicly attributable trading activity, covering 925,323 token holders. We find that current deployments remain early and heterogeneous: (1) in our sample, many projects do not yet provide clear evidence of autonomous trade execution, and developer interviews suggest that many visible deployments remain basic API integrations; (2) agent treasuries retain over USD 30M in paper gains while token holders collectively lost USD 191.7M, with the top 1% of wallets capturing 81.4% of all gains (USD 1.81B); (3) token valuations are weakly connected to treasury fundamentals, with market-cap-to-AUM ratios exceeding 10,000x versus below 1x for established DeFi protocols; and (4) aggregate user gains peaked at USD 2.4B before declining to net losses, with median returns negative on every platform and tokens declining 93% on average from all-time highs. We interpret these outcomes as characteristic of a permissionless, first-generation market in which open infrastructure enables rapid experimentation but also allows naive or speculative agents to launch before robust standards for autonomy, performance, and stakeholder alignment emerge. We therefore propose a maturity framework along three dimensions: autonomous execution, risk-adjusted profitability, and stakeholder alignment, to characterize the gap between current deployments and future investment-grade agent systems.

Jay Yu, Amy Zhao, Danning Sui

Pantera Capital · Stanford University · IC3 +1

Financial ServicesAI Agent EvaluationDecentralized FinanceFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 27, 2026

From Knowing to Doing: A Memory-Controlled Benchmark for LLM Trading Agents on Stock Markets

Evaluating whether large language model (LLM) agents can profit in capital markets is increasingly framed as end-to-end trading: place an agent in a historical market, let it trade, and measure portfolio returns. This setup is vulnerable to two evaluation failures. First, long backtests often overlap with the knowledge cutoffs of frontier LLMs, allowing memorized tickers, dates, prices, and market narratives to substitute for investment reasoning. Second, raw returns are a noisy proxy for stock-selection ability, since positive performance may come from market beta, style exposure, or favorable regimes rather than genuine alpha. We introduce KTD-Fin (Knowing-To-Doing Financial Benchmark), an end-to-end stock-market trading benchmark that addresses both issues. KTD-Fin uses a data-side masking protocol to anonymize key identifiers and calendar information consistently across prompts and tools, separating historical market memory from investment decision-making. It also incorporates a Barra-style performance attribution framework that decomposes portfolio returns into market, style, and stock-selection alpha components. Across ten frontier LLM agents evaluated on the Chinese CSI300 over a 2024--2026 window, masking substantially changes agent rationales, pushing them towards anonymized factor-based reasoning. Attribution analysis further shows that LLM agents' cumulative returns under leakage-controlled evaluation are largely explained by passive market and style exposure, with limited evidence of persistent stock-selection alpha. These findings suggest that financial LLM benchmarks should evaluate not only whether an agent makes money, but also whether the source of returns reflects transferable investment skill. We release KTD-Fin as a reproducible template for leakage-controlled and attribution-aware evaluation of LLM trading agents.

Taojie Zhu, Wentao Zhao, Rui Sun +7

1Tsinghua University, 2Stepfun · 2Stepfun · 4Shanghai Jiao Tong University +3

Benchmark ContaminationLLM Agent EvaluationAI Agent BenchmarksFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 26, 2026

AlphaMemo: Structured Search-Process Memory for Self-Evolving Alpha Mining Agents

LLM agents are promising for alpha mining via combining financial priors, symbolic reasoning, executable factor generation, and feedback-driven refinement. Yet, they face a combinatorial search space, noisy non-stationary feedback, redundant discoveries, and overfitting risks from naively reusing past successes. To address these challenges, we propose AlphaMemo, a self-evolving alpha mining agent with Structured Search-Process Memory. Rather than memorizing only final factors or full trajectories, AlphaMemo records reusable evidence about which edit motifs work or fail under specific parent-factor contexts. It extracts motifs from Abstract Syntax Tree (AST) differences, applies confidence-gated residual memory on top of a search-ledger prior, and uses asymmetric veto control to suppress high-confidence failure patterns. Experiments on CSI 500 and S&P 500 show improved out-of-sample performance and fixed-budget discovery efficiency, with ablations validating the roles of residual learning, confidence gating, AST-diff motifs, and veto memory. Code is at https://github.com/jarrettyu/sspm.

Hang Yu, Zifan Zheng, Chun Gan +4

University of Sydney · University of Edinburgh

LLM Agent MemoryFinanceAlgorithmic TradingMemory-Augmented Language Model AgentsAlpha Factor Discovery
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May 25, 2026

DeepSeekMath Meets Order Book: Group-Aware Policy Optimization for High-Frequency Directional Trading

This paper studies reinforcement learning for high-frequency trading on limit order books by pairing an Order-Flow-based state model with policy-gradient methods. Instead of value-based RL techniques like tabular Q-learning, our approach deploys policy-based methods like vanilla PPO and DeepSeekMath-inspired variants like GRPO and GSPO, that use group-normalized updates and downside-aware shaping. On backtests with financial assets AMZN, AAPL, and GOOG under a simplified backtesting setup based on spread-scaled rewards, these new policies improve net average PnL, profitability, and drawdown over the Q-Learning baseline. Our results show that (1) Order-Flow signals are an adequate state for policy RL and (2) group-aware PPO surrogates are preferable over value-based baselines.

Sayak Charabarty, Souradip Pal

Department of Computer Science Northwestern University Evanston, IL 60208, USA · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA

Group Relative Policy OptimizationProximal Policy OptimizationFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 23, 2026

Market Regime Council for Dynamic Credit Assignment in Multi-Agent LLM Decision Systems

Multi-agent LLM decision systems for portfolio management still lack a principled way to assign credit across specialist agents, remain vulnerable to cold-start dominance under regime shifts, and offer limited transparency into how final allocations are formed. We propose Market Regime Council (MRC), a cooperative multi-agent decision system that computes exact Shapley credits across all single, pairwise, and Grand-coalition outputs for online agent weighting. Instantiated with N=3 specialist agents, at each trading period, MRC recomputes coalition-based Shapley weights from exponentially weighted performance histories, uses a Bayesian adaptive mixture to stabilize early periods, applies regime-dependent multipliers to adjust agent authority, and records each rebalance through a five-layer causal trace. Over 1,037 trading days across 13 crypto assets and five seeds, MRC achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 and a cumulative return of 440.1%, ranking first on CR, SR, and IR among active baselines and attaining the lowest MDD among active methods. Ablation results show that the gains come from Shapley-weighted integration across coalition outputs rather than from any single stage in isolation. Code and demo data are included in the supplementary material.

Yunhua Pei, Zerui Ge, Jin Zheng +1

University of Bristol, UK · Independent Researcher

Multi-Agent LLM SystemsMulti-Agent SystemsFine-Grained Credit AssignmentAlgorithmic Trading
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May 21, 2026

MadEvolve: Evolutionary Optimization of Trading Systems with Large Language Models

We explore the application of LLM-driven algorithm optimization to several common tasks in quantitative finance. MadEvolve, a general-purpose algorithm optimization framework inspired by DeepMind's Alpha-Evolve, was recently developed to optimize algorithms in computational cosmology. Here we demonstrate the utility of MadEvolve to optimize algorithmic trading strategies and alpha generation at the example of Bitcoin trading. On our simulation and backtesting setup, we achieve significant improvements on all tasks we considered, such as evolving feature sets for signal generation, optimizing separate components of the trading strategy, and jointly evolving the feature pipeline together with the execution strategy. Additionally, we compare our method to other agentic search approaches, specifically Claude Code, and carefully evaluate p-hacking probabilities on our simulation setup. Our findings strongly support the utility of AI-driven agentic and evolutionary algorithms for algorithmic trading and quantitative finance.

Yurii Kvasiuk, Tianyi Li, Owen Colegrove +1

Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin–Madison · Event Horizon Labs

Quantitative FinanceEvolutionary OptimizationLarge Language Model-Guided OptimizationFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 20, 2026

Zero-shot adaptation to order book dynamics

We describe an adaptive market-making architecture that preserves the analytical structure of the Avellaneda--Stoikov framework while introducing a successor measure-style adaptation mechanism. In our paper we keep Avellaneda--Stoikov fast Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman structure and make it adaptive to changing market regimes and trading objectives. The central idea is to separate market dynamics from the trading objective. The market state determines a low-dimensional set of Avellaneda--Stoikov parameters, while recent realized rewards determine a low-dimensional objective vector. The HJB forward map then converts this objective into optimal bid and ask quotes through a scalarization of future reward features.

Arip Asadulaev

Sequential Decision MakingStochastic Optimal ControlZero-Shot Policy TransferOptimal ControlAdaptive ControlFinance+1
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May 19, 2026

Memory-Induced Supra-Competitive Outcomes Between Deep Reinforcement Learning Agents in Optimal Trade Execution

In this paper, we investigate whether deep reinforcement-learning agents interacting in a shared optimal-execution environment can sustain supra-competitive outcomes, in the sense of achieving lower implementation shortfalls than the relevant game-theoretical competitive benchmark. We study a two-agent Almgren-Chriss liquidation game and examine how learned behavior depends on intra-episode environment feedback, the ability to interpret the mid-price and the agent's knoledge of the past. We first use ex-ante schedule-learning agents to remove intra-episode feedback and isolate what can arise when agents commit to complete liquidation trajectories before execution begins. We then allow agents to condition on the evolving state using a variety of DDQN architectures. We find that, when agents are given access to intra-episode history, especially recent prices and own past actions, supra-competitive outcomes become substantially more frequent and more persistent. These findings indicate that supra-competitive behavior in this execution game is driven not by multi-agent learning or by current price observation alone, but by feedback, memory, and state-contingent interaction along the realized execution path.

Christos Spyridon Koulouris, Carlo Campajola

Institute of Finance and Technology, University College London, Gower Street WC1E 6BT London, United Kingdom · UZH Blockchain Center, Andreasstrasse 15, 8050 Zürich, Switzerland

Algorithmic CollusionMemory-Augmented AgentsMulti-Agent Reinforcement LearningAlgorithmic Trading
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May 19, 2026

Machine Learning-Based Bitcoin Trading Under Transaction Costs: Evidence From Walk-Forward Forecasting

This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.

Andrei Bysik, Robert Ślepaczuk

Quantitative Finance Research Group, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland · Quantitative Finance Research Group, Department of Quantitative Finance and Machine Learning, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland

Quantitative FinanceTime Series ForecastingAlgorithmic Trading
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May 19, 2026

Online Market Making and the Value of Observing the Order Book

We study an online market-making problem in which a learner sequentially posts bid and ask prices for a single asset while interacting with traders holding private valuations. Unlike existing online learning formulations that assume fully censored feedback, we introduce an action-dependent feedback model inspired by real limit order books: when a trade occurs, the trader's valuation remains hidden, whereas when no trade occurs, informative feedback about supply and demand is revealed. We show that this additional information fundamentally changes the learnability of the problem. In the stochastic setting with i.i.d. market prices, we propose an elimination-based algorithm that achieves O(T)O(\sqrt T) regret with high probability, without requiring any smoothness assumptions on the distribution of trader valuations. We then extend this result to a broad class of mean-reverting price processes by considering both local, autoregressive dynamics and a weaker global drift condition based on cumulative deviations from the mean. Under either assumption, we establish high-probability O(T)O(\sqrt T) regret bounds, relying on a new concentration inequality of independent interest. Finally, in the adversarial setting with oblivious prices, we design an explore-then-perturb algorithm that guarantees O(T2/3)O(T^{2/3}) regret in expectation. Our results quantify the value of observing the order book in online market making and demonstrate that even limited, action-dependent feedback can substantially improve regret guarantees compared to standard bandit feedback models.

Davide Maran, Marcello Restelli

Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32-36 - Citt`a Studi, Milano (MI)

Adversarial BanditsAlgorithmic Trading
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May 19, 2026

Agentic Trading: When LLM Agents Meet Financial Markets

A growing body of work explores how Large Language Models (LLMs) can be embedded in trading systems as agents that perceive market information, retrieve context, reason about decisions, emit tradable actions, and adapt under market feedback. This paper reframes LLM-based trading agents as expert-system decision pipelines and presents an audit-oriented evidence map of 77 included studies in a protocol-coded snapshot screened through 2026-03-09. A primary empirical subset (n=19) satisfies the minimum boundary of Action Output plus Closed-Loop Evaluation; the remaining 58 included studies are retained as background and design context. The central empirical finding is protocol incomparability: within the primary subset, only 2/19 studies report extractable time-consistent split protocols, 1/19 reports an explicit transaction-cost model, 1/19 documents universe or survivorship handling, 11/19 report execution timing or semantics, 15/19 are coded as R0, and no study reaches R3 reproducibility. We therefore use Architecture-Capability-Adaptation as a working analytical lens rather than a validated taxonomy, and we foreground the evidence ledger, reproducibility audit, and reporting checklist as the main contributions. The resulting survey shows that architectural experimentation is expanding rapidly, while comparable evaluation protocols, execution semantics, and reproducible artifacts remain the field's immediate bottlenecks.

Yihan Xia, Panpan You, Taotao Wang +4

College of Electronic and Information Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China

LLM Agent EvaluationFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 17, 2026

Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Diversified Portfolio Management Across Global Equity Markets

This study develops and evaluates a deep reinforcement learning framework for dynamic portfolio allocation across global equity markets. The Soft Actor-Critic algorithm is used to learn continuous portfolio weights within a Markov Decision Process, incorporating transaction costs, turnover penalties, and diversification constraints into the reward function. Five model configurations are compared, varying in reward formulation, policy structure (flat versus hierarchical Dirichlet), portfolio constraints, and temporal encoder (LSTM versus Transformer), and evaluated via walk-forward optimization across sixteen out-of-sample folds spanning 2003-2026 on the Nasdaq-100, Nikkei 225, and Euro Stoxx 50. Results show that RL strategies achieve competitive risk-adjusted performance primarily in the Euro Stoxx 50, where statistically significant abnormal returns are observed, but the central hypothesis is only partially confirmed: no strategy achieves statistically significant excess returns relative to Buy and Hold under HAC-robust inference across all markets. Regime analysis reveals that RL adds the most value during periods of elevated uncertainty, while ensemble aggregation across markets improves risk-adjusted performance and confirms the benefits of geographic diversification.

Kamil Kashif, Robert Ślepaczuk

Quantitative Finance Research Group Faculty of Economic Sciences University of Warsaw ul. Dluga 44-50 00-241 Warsaw Poland · Quantitative Finance Research Group Department of Quantitative Finance and Machine Learning Faculty of Economic Sciences University of Warsaw ul. Dluga 44-50 00-241 Warsaw Poland

Reinforcement LearningPortfolio OptimizationAlgorithmic Trading
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May 16, 2026

The Alpha Illusion: Reported Alpha from LLM Trading Agents Should Not Be Treated as Deployment Evidence

End-to-end LLM trading agents have moved quickly from research curiosity to a small ecosystem of named systems, including FinCon, FinMem, TradingAgents, FinAgent, QuantAgent, and FLAG-Trader. Several of these report headline Sharpe ratios that would be material if read at face value on a deployment desk, and associated benchmarks such as FinBen report trading-task Sharpe statistics in the same range. The gap between architecture research and deployment claim has been crossed too freely on both sides of the academia--industry divide. We take a position on that gap: reported alpha from end-to-end LLM trading agents should not be treated as deployment evidence. Before such returns can support claims of deployable trading capability, they must survive structural validity tests for temporal integrity, real-world frictions, counterfactual robustness, predictive calibration, numerical execution, and multi-agent disaggregation. Current public evidence cannot yet distinguish robust predictive ability from temporal contamination, unmodeled frictions, short-window Sharpe uncertainty, narrative fitting, and parametric priors. The problem is not only evaluative but structural. Language confidence is not tradable probability, narrative reasoning is not numerical execution, and model priors may become undisclosed implicit factor exposures. We contribute a minimum reporting protocol suite, P1--P6, with tiered applicability by claim strength, and a conservative modular alternative that uses LLMs as auditable information interfaces upstream of independent calibration, risk, and execution modules. Code and reproduction harness: https://github.com/hj1650782738/Trading.

Yuxuan Ye, Jun Han, Ao Hu +7

Fudan University · Shanghai University of Finance and Economics · Southwest University of Finance and Economics +3

LLM Agent EvaluationAI Agent BenchmarksLLM AgentsFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 14, 2026

From Feedback Loops to Policy Updates: Reinforcement Fine-Tuning for LLM-Based Alpha Factor Discovery

Modern quantitative trading increasingly relies on systematic models to extract predictive signals from large-scale financial data, where alpha factor discovery plays a central role in transforming market observations into tradable signals. Recent LLM-based methods have shown promise in automating factor generation, but most of them still rely on prompt-level generation--evaluation--feedback loops for iterative optimization. As the loop becomes longer, repeatedly appended historical candidates and feedback can cause context explosion, increase inference cost, dilute useful information, and introduce feedback drift. Moreover, these methods often depend on very large LLMs whose stable generation preferences may lead to structurally similar expressions, redundant candidates, and search stagnation. To address these limitations, we propose QuantEvolver, a self-evolving alpha factor discovery framework based on reinforcement fine-tuning. Instead of accumulating feedback in the prompt, QuantEvolver converts executable quantitative evaluation into policy updates, enabling a Miner LLM to internalize historical optimization experience through parameter learning. Specifically, QuantEvolver constructs high-quality seed factors, builds diverse seed--time-window training tasks, generates executable Factor DSL expressions, evaluates them through Regime Backtest, and optimizes the Miner LLM with Diversity-Complementarity Reward. During training, high-quality factors are continuously accumulated in a Mined Factor Database, which serves as the final discovered factor library. Extensive experiments on three realistic market benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of QuantEvolver, which consistently improves the primary evaluation metric of each task over existing LLM-based alpha factor discovery baselines, produces higher-quality and more complementary factor pools.

Lingzhe Zhang, Tong Jia, Yunpeng Zhai +5

Peking University, Beijing, China · Alibaba Group, China · Nanjing University, Nanjing, China +1

RL for Language ModelsAlpha Factor DiscoveryLarge Language Model-Guided OptimizationRL Fine-TuningAlgorithmic Trading
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May 13, 2026

Algometrics: Forecasting Under Algorithmic Feedback

In algorithmic markets, predictive models become part of the data-generating process they aim to forecast. Once their outputs are converted into trades, allocations, execution schedules, or risk controls, they change the future data on which they are evaluated. I introduce algometrics, a framework for time series whose evolution depends on the predictive algorithms forecasting them. The framework distinguishes historical risk, measured under passive forecasting, from deployment risk, measured when forecasts drive actions. I prove three results. First, deployment risk is not identifiable from passive historical data alone: even in a one-step linear feedback model, infinitely many algorithm-mediated environments induce the same historical law while implying different deployment risks for the same forecaster. Second, historical model rankings can invert under crowding, so a predictor with lower passive error can have higher deployment error once similar algorithms are adopted. Third, randomized or instrumented actions identify short-horizon linear feedback, and I derive a finite-sample bound for deployment-risk estimation. These results suggest that time-series benchmarks in algorithmic markets should report feedback sensitivity alongside predictive accuracy.

Marc Schmitt

University of Oxford

Time Series ForecastingPerformative PredictionAlgorithmic Trading
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May 12, 2026

Plan Before You Trade: Inference-Time Optimization for RL Trading Agents

Reinforcement learning agents for portfolio management are typically trained and deployed as static policies, with no mechanism for policy adjustments using price forecasts at inference time. We propose FinPILOT (Financial Plugin Inference-time Learning for Optimal Trading), a plugin inference-time policy optimization framework inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC). Under the price-taker assumption, portfolio actions do not affect future market prices, allowing a multi-step price forecaster to provide imagined market trajectories without iterative action-conditioned rollouts. At each decision step, FinPILOT uses the forecaster's predicted price trajectory to construct an allocation-based imagined return objective and optimizes the pretrained policy at inference time before executing one step of the trade. Our framework is compatible with any pretrained policy and adapts the policy using the forecaster's predictions without modifying the original RL training pipeline. Evaluated with five pretrained policies (PPO, SAC, A2C, TD3, DDPG) across DJ30 equities and foreign exchange (FX) over three rolling held-out test years (30 settings in total), FinPILOT improves Total Return in 28 of 30 settings and Sharpe ratio in 27 of 30, with gains spanning both stochastic and deterministic policies. Direct single- and multi-period portfolio optimizers supplied with the same forecasts do not reproduce these aggregate gains under our evaluation protocol. Further, using controlled forecasts at calibrated quality levels, we show that both the magnitude and consistency of FinPILOT's performance increase as forecast error is reduced.

Eun Go, Rohan Deb, Arindam Banerjee

Siebel School of Computing and Data Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Reinforcement LearningInference-Time OptimizationPredict-Then-OptimizePortfolio OptimizationFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 7, 2026

SHARP: A Self-Evolving Human-Auditable Rubric Policy for Financial Trading Agents

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for autonomous financial trading, a domain requiring continuous adaptation to noisy, non-stationary markets. Existing self-improving agents typically address this through unbounded free-form prompt optimization. However, in low signal-to-noise environments with delayed scalar rewards (P&L), this unstructured approach exacerbates the fundamental credit assignment problem: optimizers cannot reliably distinguish systematic logic flaws from stochastic market variance, inevitably leading to policy drift. To overcome this bottleneck, we introduce the Self-Evolving Human-Auditable Rubric Policy (SHARP), a neuro-symbolic framework that replaces unconstrained text mutation with structured, symbolic policy optimization. SHARP confines the agent's reasoning to a bounded, human-readable rubric of explicit condition-action rules. When sub-optimal trades occur, an attribution agent employs cross-sample reasoning across multiple samples to isolate specific rule failures. This enables targeted, atomic policy edits that are subsequently regularized through strict walk-forward validation. Evaluated across three diverse equity sectors and four LLM backbones, SHARP consistently transforms generic initial heuristics into highly robust strategies, lifting the empirical performance of compact models by 10 to 20 percentage points on average (e.g., GPT-4o-mini). Ultimately, SHARP demonstrates that LLMs can achieve dynamic and efficient adaptation while significantly enhancing the structural transparency and auditability demanded by institutional finance.

Xiwen Chen, Wenhui Zhu, Songzhu Zheng +3

Morgan Stanley · Arizona State University · Columbia University +1

Reinforcement LearningCredit Assignment in RLLLM Agent Self-ImprovementAlgorithmic Trading
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May 7, 2026

Strat-LLM: Stratified Strategy Alignment for LLM-based Stock Trading with Real-time Multi-Source Signals

Large Language Models (LLMs) are evolving into autonomous trading agents, yet existing benchmarks often overlook the interplay between architectural reasoning and strategy consistency. We propose Strat-LLM, a framework grounded in Stratified Strategy Alignment. Operating in a live-forward setting throughout 2025, it integrates heterogeneous data including sequential prices, real-time news, and annual reports to eliminate look-ahead bias. Extensive stress tests on A-share and U.S. markets reveal: (1) reasoning-heavy models achieve peak utility in Free Mode via internal logic, whereas standard models require Strict Mode as a vital risk anchor; (2) alignment utility is regime-dependent, with Free and Guided modes capturing momentum in uptrending markets, while Strict Mode mitigates drawdowns in downtrends; (3) mid-scale models (35B) show optimal fidelity under strict constraints, whereas ultra-large models (122B) suffer an alignment tax under rigid rules but gain a performance premium in Guided Mode; (4) standard LLMs often fall into a high win-rate trap, optimizing for small gains at the expense of total returns, which can only be mitigated through deep reasoning or strict external guardrails. Project details are available at https://Strat-LLM.github.io.

Wenliang Huang, Zengyi Yu

School of Economics Zhejiang University of Technology Hangzhou, China · Faculty of Education East China Normal University Shanghai, China

LLM EvaluationLLM AlignmentLLM AgentsAlgorithmic Trading
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May 7, 2026

AlphaCrafter: A Full-Stack Multi-Agent Framework for Cross-Sectional Quantitative Trading

Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, driven by complex interactions among macroeconomic regimes, microstructural frictions, and behavioral dynamics. Building quantitative strategies that remain profitable demands the continuous coupling of factor discovery, regime-adaptive selection, and risk-constrained execution. Prevailing approaches, however, optimize these components under static or isolated assumptions. Factor mining frameworks typically treat alpha discovery as a one-time search process, implicitly assuming that factor efficacy persists across market regimes. Execution-oriented systems often adopt role-playing agent architectures that simulate anthropomorphic trading committees, introducing behavioral noise rather than systematic rationality. Consequently, a fully automated, rationality-driven framework unifying a coherent quantitative pipeline remains absent. We introduce AlphaCrafter, a full-stack multi-agent framework that closes this gap through a continuously adaptive factor-to-execution pipeline, designed to track and respond to evolving market conditions without manual intervention. AlphaCrafter operates via three specialized agents: a Miner that continuously expands the factor pool via LLM-guided search, a Screener that assesses prevailing market conditions to construct regime-conditioned factor ensembles, and a Trader that translates these ensembles into quantitative strategies under explicit risk constraints. Together, these three agents form a closed-loop cross-sectional trading system that adapts holistically to evolving market dynamics. Extensive experiments on CSI 300 and S&P 500 demonstrate that AlphaCrafter consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in risk-adjusted returns while exhibiting the lowest cross-trial variance, confirming that integrated and adaptive factor-to-execution design yields robust trading performance.

Yishuo Yuan, Jiayi Sheng, Sirui Zeng +2

Nanjing University

Multi-Agent OrchestrationQuantitative FinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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May 3, 2026

MOIRA: Policy Memory and Belief Revision for Language-Model Agents in Non-Stationary Pair Trading

Many sequential decision-making problems exhibit hierarchical structure, where high-level semantic choices constrain downstream actions and feedback is delayed and ambiguous. Learning in such settings is challenging due to credit assignment: performance degradation may arise from flawed abstractions, suboptimal execution, or their interaction. We study this challenge through pair trading, a domain that naturally combines long-horizon semantic reasoning for asset pair selection with short-horizon execution under partial observability. We formulate pair trading as a hierarchical reinforcement learning problem and propose a language-driven optimization framework in which both high-level and low-level policies are parameterized by large language models (LLMs) and optimized exclusively through prompt updates. Our approach leverages pretrained LLMs as hierarchical policies and uses trajectory- and episode-level textual feedback to adapt abstractions and execution without gradient-based fine-tuning. By explicitly separating abstraction selection from execution, the framework reduces non-stationarity across hierarchical levels and enables targeted adaptation under delayed feedback. Experiments on real-world market data show consistent improvements over traditional and LLM-based baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of language-driven hierarchical reinforcement learning.

Polydoros Giannouris, Yuechen Jiang, Lingfei Qian +5

The University of Manchester Manchester, UK · The Fin AI USA · Harvard University Cambridge, MA, USA +1

Reinforcement LearningHierarchical RLPrompt OptimizationAlgorithmic Trading
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May 1, 2026

AgenticAITA: A Proof-Of-Concept About Deliberative Multi-Agent Reasoning for Autonomous Trading Systems

Conventional algorithmic trading systems are grounded in deterministic heuristics or offline-trained statistical models that cannot adapt to the semantic complexity of rapidly shifting market regimes. This paper introduces AGENTICAITA, an agentic AI framework that replaces the traditional signal then execute paradigm with a fully autonomous deliberative loop in which multiple specialized Large Language Model agents reason, negotiate, and act in concert - without any offline training or human intervention. The framework proposes four architectural contributions: (i) an Adaptive Z-Score Trigger Engine that acts as a cognitive resource allocator, gating LLM inference exclusively on statistically anomalous market conditions; (ii) a Sequential Deliberative Pipeline - the core agentic contribution - in which an Analyst agent, a Risk Manager agent, and an Executor agent form a structured reasoning chain governed by typed JSON contracts and a deterministic hard-gate safety layer; (iii) an Inference Gating Protocol, a mutex-based cognitive resource scheduler that serializes concurrent agent activations and ensures fully reproducible audit trails; and (iv) a Correlation-Break Diversification composite score that operationalizes portfolio-level idiosyncratic signal prioritization within individual agent reasoning. Validated over a five-day autonomous dry-run session under live market conditions, the framework demonstrates operational correctness of the deliberative pipeline, achieving 157 zero-intervention invocations across 76 assets with an 11.5% agentic friction rate that confirms non-trivial inter-agent negotiation. This preliminary proof-of-concept establishes the feasibility of training-free, deterministic safety-constrained multi-agent orchestration in financial decision loops, with statistically robust performance evaluation and execution cost modeling deferred to extended live deployment.

Ivan Letteri

Department of Information Engineering, Computer Science, and Mathematics, Center of Excellence for Research DEWS, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio, Coppito, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy

Multi-Agent OrchestrationAI Agent SafetyMulti-Agent ReasoningMulti-Agent LLMsAlgorithmic Trading
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Apr 29, 2026

Optimal Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Parameterization for Autonomous Trading Agent Swarm

Autonomous crypto trading systems often spend most of their design effort on finding entries, while exits are left to fixed rules that are rarely tested in a systematic way. This paper examines whether better stop-loss and take-profit settings can improve the performance of an autonomous trading agent swarm. Using more than 900 historical trades, we replay each trade under many alternative exit policies and compare results against the existing production setup. The study finds that exit design matters meaningfully: stronger configurations improve risk-adjusted performance and generally favor tighter loss limits, earlier profit capture, and closer trailing protection. The paper also discusses a key evaluation challenge: a purely chronological split was initially used, but the newest trades fell into an unusual war-driven market period that sharply distorted test results. To reduce the influence of that single episode, the main comparison was run on randomized data, with the drawbacks of doing so acknowledged explicitly. Overall, the paper presents a practical framework for tuning exit logic in a more disciplined and transparent way.

Nathan Li, Aikins Laryea, Yigit Ihlamur

University of Oxford · Vela Research

Quantitative FinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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Apr 27, 2026

MultiHedge: Adaptive Coordination via Retrieval-Augmented Control

Decision-making under changing conditions remains a fundamental challenge in many real-world systems. Existing approaches often fail to generalize across shifting regimes and exhibit unstable behavior under uncertainty. This raises the research question: can retrieval-augmented LLM coordination improve the robustness of modular decision pipelines? We propose MultiHedge, a hybrid architecture where an LLM produces structured allocation decisions conditioned on retrieved historical precedents, and execution is grounded in canonical option strategies. In a controlled evaluation using U.S. equities, we compare MultiHedge to rule-based and learning-based baselines. The key result is that memory-augmented retrieval confers greater robustness and stability than increasing model scale alone. Our paper contributes a controlled computational study showing that memory and architectural design play a central role in robustness in modular decision systems.

Feliks Bańka, Jarosław A. Chudziak

The Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

Retrieval-Augmented GenerationLLM Decision-MakingLanguage Model RobustnessAlgorithmic TradingMemory-Augmented Language Model Agents
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Apr 23, 2026

When Quotes Crumble: Detecting Transient Mechanical Liquidity Erosion in Limit Order Books

We study the detection of transient liquidity erosion ("crumbling quotes") in electronic limit order books, where observable quote deterioration may reflect either mechanical liquidity withdrawal or informational repricing. Using the ABIDES agent-based simulator, we construct a multi-agent environment in which crumbling emerges from stochastic regime switches in a market maker, providing time-resolved ground truth unavailable in real market data. We develop a detection pipeline that identifies mechanically driven quote erosion using order book features, and train a neural model to produce calibrated crumbling probabilities. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework reliably identifies crumbling events against agent-level ground truth, with the neural model achieving +36% AUC improvement over rule-based baselines and robust performance across normal, high-volatility, bull, and bear market conditions. Ablation studies on temporal features and varying the dependence structure of the ground-truth mechanism confirm that the framework generalizes across both independent and autocorrelated liquidity withdrawal dynamics.

Haohan Xu, Jason Bohne, Pawel Polak +5

Stony Brook University · Bloomberg

Quantitative FinanceAlgorithmic TradingLimit Order Book Modeling
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Apr 22, 2026

Early Detection of Latent Microstructure Regimes in Limit Order Books

Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, yet standard early-warning signals such as order flow imbalance and short-term volatility are inherently reactive. We formalise this limitation via a three-regime causal data-generating process (stable →\to latent build-up →\to stress) in which a latent deterioration phase creates a prediction window prior to observable stress. Under mild assumptions on temporal drift and regime persistence, we establish identifiability of the latent build-up regime and derive guarantees for strictly positive expected lead-time and non-trivial probability of early detection. We propose a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding. Across 200 simulations, the method achieves mean lead-time +18.6±3.2+18.6 \pm 3.2 timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines. A preliminary application to one week of BTC/USDT order book data shows consistent positive lead-times while baselines remain reactive. Results degrade in low signal-to-noise and short build-up regimes, consistent with theory.

Prakul Sunil Hiremath, Vruksha Arun Hiremath

Department of Computer Science and Engineering Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi · Department of Business Administration K.L.E. Society’s College of Business Administration

Quantitative FinanceLatent Dynamics ModelingEarly Warning DetectionChange-Point DetectionAlgorithmic TradingLimit Order Book Modeling
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Apr 20, 2026

Dissecting AI Trading: Behavioral Finance and Market Bubbles

We study how AI agents form expectations and trade in experimental asset markets. Using a simulated open-call auction populated by autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, we document three main findings. First, AI agents exhibit classic behavioral patterns: a pronounced disposition effect and recency-weighted extrapolative beliefs. Second, these individual-level patterns aggregate into equilibrium dynamics that replicate classic experimental findings (Smith et al., 1988), including the predictive power of excess demand for future prices and the positive relationship between disagreement and trading volume. Third, by analyzing the agents' reasoning text through a twenty-mechanism scoring framework, we show that targeted prompt interventions causally amplify or suppress specific behavioral mechanisms, significantly altering the magnitude of market bubbles.

Shumiao Ouyang, Pengfei Sui

Saïd Business School, University of Oxford · School of Management and Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

Quantitative FinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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Apr 19, 2026

Signal or Noise in Multi-Agent LLM-based Stock Recommendations?

We present the first portfolio-level validation of MarketSenseAI, a deployed multi-agent LLM equity system. All signals are generated live at each observation date, eliminating look-ahead bias. The system routes four specialist agents (News, Fundamentals, Dynamics, and Macro) through a synthesis agent that issues a monthly equity thesis and recommendation for each stock in its coverage universe, and we ask two questions: do its buy recommendations add value over both passive benchmarks and random selection, and what does the internal agent structure reveal about the source of the edge? On the S&P 500 cohort (19 months) the strong-buy equal-weight portfolio earns +2.18%/month against a passive equal-weight benchmark of +1.15% (approximating RSP), a +25.2% compound excess, and ranks at the 99.7th percentile of 10,000 Monte Carlo portfolios (p=0.003). The S&P 100 cohort (35 months) delivers a +30.5% compound excess over EQWL with consistent direction but formal significance not reached, limited by the small average selection of ~10 stocks per month. Non-negative least-squares projection of thesis embeddings onto agent embeddings reveals an adaptive-integration mechanism. Agent contributions rotate with market regime (Fundamentals leads on S&P 500, Macro on S&P 100, Dynamics acts as an episodic momentum signal) and this agent rotation moves in lockstep with both the sector composition of strong-buy selections and identifiable macro-calendar events, three independent views of the same underlying adaptation. The recommendation's cross-sectional Information Coefficient is statistically significant on S&P 500 (ICIR=+0.489, p=0.024). These results suggest that multi-agent LLM equity systems can identify sources of alpha beyond what classical factor models capture, and that the buy signal functions as an effective universe-filter that can sit upstream of any portfolio-construction process.

George Fatouros, Kostas Metaxas

Alpha Tensor Technologies

Multi-Agent LLM SystemsMulti-Agent CollaborationFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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Apr 18, 2026

Learning to Trade Like an Expert: Cognitive Fine-Tuning for Stable Financial Reasoning in Language Models

Recent deployments of large language models (LLMs) as autonomous trading agents raise questions about whether financial decision-making competence generalizes beyond specific market patterns and how it should be trained and evaluated in noisy markets lacking ground truth. We propose a structured framework for training and evaluating such models. Central to our approach is a curated, multiple-choice question (MCQ) dataset derived from classic textbooks and historical markets, verified by an AI committee, enriched with structured reasoning traces, and augmented to reduce shortcut learning. To evaluate whether performance on isolated MCQs generalizes to real-world trading, we introduce a two-stage protocol combining test-set evaluation with an MCQ-based chronological trading simulation. Extensive evaluations across market regimes provide statistically robust evidence that open models trained with our framework exhibit competitive, risk-aware behavior over time, outperform open-source baselines, and approach frontier-model performance at smaller scale. We release the dataset and evaluation framework to support further research.

Yuchen Pan, Soung Chang Liew

Department of Information Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

LLM EvaluationFinancial Reasoning in Language ModelsLLM Fine-TuningFinancial Reasoning BenchmarksFinanceAlgorithmic Trading
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Apr 16, 2026

QuantCode-Bench: A Benchmark for Evaluating the Ability of Large Language Models to Generate Executable Algorithmic Trading Strategies

Large language models have demonstrated strong performance on general-purpose programming tasks, yet their ability to generate executable algorithmic trading strategies remains underexplored. Unlike standard code benchmarks, trading-strategy generation requires simultaneous mastery of domain-specific financial logic, knowledge of a specialized API, and the ability to produce code that is not only syntactically correct but also leads to actual trades on historical data. In this work, we present QuantCode-Bench, a benchmark for the systematic evaluation of modern LLMs in generating strategies for the Backtrader framework from textual descriptions in English. The benchmark contains 400 tasks of varying difficulty collected from Reddit, TradingView, StackExchange, GitHub, and synthetic sources. Evaluation is conducted through a multi-stage pipeline that checks syntactic correctness, successful backtest execution, the presence of trades, and semantic alignment with the task description using an LLM judge. We compare state-of-the-art models in two settings: single-turn, where the strategy must be generated correctly on the first attempt, and agentic multi-turn, where the model receives iterative feedback and may repair its errors. We analyze the failure modes across different stages of the pipeline and show that the main limitations of current models are not related to syntax, but rather to the correct operationalization of trading logic, proper API usage, and adherence to task semantics. These findings suggest that trading strategy generation constitutes a distinct class of domain-specific code generation tasks in which success requires not only technical correctness, but also alignment between natural-language descriptions, financial logic, and the observable behavior of the strategy on data.

Alexey Khoroshilov, Alexey Chernysh, Orkhan Ekhtibarov +2

Lime

Agentic Code GenerationCode Generation EvaluationLLM Code GenerationAlgorithmic Trading
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Apr 15, 2026

When Missing Becomes Structure: Intent-Preserving Policy Completion from Financial KOL Discourse

Key Opinion Leader (KOL) discourse on social media is widely consumed as investment guidance, yet turning it into executable trading strategies without injecting assumptions about unspecified execution decisions remains an open problem. We observe that the gaps in KOL statements are not random deficiencies but a structured separation: KOLs express directional intent (what to buy or sell and why) while leaving execution decisions (when, how much, how long) systematically unspecified. Building on this observation, we propose an intent-preserving policy completion framework that treats KOL discourse as a partial trading policy and uses offline reinforcement learning to complete the missing execution decisions around the KOL-expressed intent. Experiments on multimodal KOL discourse from YouTube and X (2022-2025) show that KICL achieves the best return and Sharpe ratio on both platforms while maintaining zero unsupported entries and zero directional reversals, and ablations confirm that the full framework yields an 18.9% return improvement over the KOL-aligned baseline.

Yuncong Liu, Yuan Wan, Zhou Jiang +1

Asian Institute of Digital Finance, National University of Singapore · School of Computing, National University of Singapore

Algorithmic TradingPolicy Learning
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