Autoregressive Modeling

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7 papers in the last four weeks, up 40% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 60

Oct 1, 2026cs.LG

Autoregressive Drillhole Modelling Under Distribution Shift

Autoregressive modelling has achieved remarkable success in language and sequence tasks by learning to predict future states from previous observation. Mineral-exploration drillholes provide a natural but largely unexplored setting for this paradigm: as drilling proceeds, lithology is revealed sequentially from shallow to deep, making prediction of deeper strata inherently autoregressive. Existing drillhole modelling, however, is dominated by spatial interpolation and reconstruction, or largely rely on masked modelling, leaving strictly autoregressive prediction largely underexplored. We introduce DrillBench, a benchmark of 49,671 Western Australian drillholes for next-layer prediction and autoregressive stratigraphic generation across a graded transfer spectrum, from local prediction through spatial shift to cross geological province transfer. Benchmarking classical, geostatistical, and neural models reveals a clear \emph{transfer boundary}: spatial and geochemical conditioning provides large local gains but deteriorates sharply under stronger shift, whereas lithology-sequence autoregressive models transfer more robustly. Guided by this finding, we develop a backbone-agnostic recipe combining large-scale pretraining on historical drillholes with spatial retrieval of neighbouring lithology. Retrieval is most effective in weathered cover, when local spatial continuity remains informative, whereas pretraining contributes more strongly in bedrock and under broader geological shift. Together, they retain strong local performance while improving generalisation under spatial and cross-province shift, most markedly on the most distant splits. The benchmark and code are available at https://github.com/yihaoding/drillbench.

Yihao Ding, Daniel Yitian Su, Yiran Zhang +2

The University of Western Australia Crawley, WA 6009, Australia

Distribution Shift Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

Learning Linear Systems under Heavy-Tailed Noise: A Non-Asymptotic Analysis from A Single Trajectory

We establish non-asymptotic sample complexity bounds for the least-squares estimation of vector autoregressive models for exponentially stable systems with heavy-tailed noise based on a single observed trajectory. By assuming i.i.d. noise, bounded noise covariance, and persistent excitation, we show that the estimation error is

\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(r^{1/2}T^{-1/2+1/p})

under bounded

p

th moment for

p > 2

, where

T

is the number of samples,

r

is the noise dimension, and

\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\cdot)

hides logarithmic terms. We also introduce a unifying approach to sample complexity analysis applicable to broad classes of noise distributions and showcase this by deriving error bounds for sub-exponential and sub-Gaussian noise distributions. Finally, we specialize our analysis to autoregressive models with exogenous inputs and show that the dimension factor of the error bound is independent of the model order.

Xiaomian Yang, Sungho Shin

Department of Chemical Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139

Stochastic Linear Dynamical Systems Sample Complexity Heavy-Tailed Noise System Identification Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

Learning Chaos Without Seeing Chaos: Extrapolation of Global Dynamics in Autoregressive Transformers

Autoregressive models are trained to predict a system's behavior one step at a time, and recursive generation allows the learned dynamics to unfold over long horizons. To what extent can such dynamics learned from local observations recover broader organization of an underlying system that was only partially observed during training? Here we study small autoregressive transformers trained from scratch on trajectories sampled from restricted parameter regimes of several non-linear dynamical systems, including logistic and sine maps, the Lorenz system, and the generalized Hopf system, with control parameters and state trajectories represented as sequences of continuous tokens. Under closed-loop evaluation at parameters far outside the training distribution, the models can recover self-similar period-doubling cascades, chaotic dynamics, and attractor structures with remarkable visual and numerical fidelity. For the logistic map, a transformer reproduces successive period doublings up to period 128, yielding a finite-order scaling ratio of 4.6687, matching the Feigenbaum constant to within

5\times10^{-4}

. We further investigate how these structures emerge over the course of training, and reveal with causal interventions how control-parameter information is processed through attention into state prediction and shapes the resulting closed-loop dynamics. These results suggest that a surprisingly narrow window into a system's local behavior may suffice for autoregressive transformers to generalize to its unseen global dynamical organization.

Yilun Liu, Yi Zhang, Ganyu Wu +5

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning · Technical University of Munich

Dynamical Systems Chaotic Dynamical Systems Chaotic Time-Series Prediction Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

HALO: Enhancing Time Series Generation via Hyperspherical Latents and Masked AutoregRessive Modeling

Most existing time series generators rely on a two-stage modeling paradigm: the first stage learns discrete latent representations of time series; the second stage performs autoregressive modeling on these discrete latents through next token prediction. However, this paradigm suffers from two stage-specific limitations: the first stage can lead to information loss when discretizing continuous time series, while the second stage is prone to error accumulation during autoregressive generation. To address these limitations, our core idea is to perform generative modeling in a continuous latent space with a more efficient autoregressive framework. We propose HALO, which enhances time series generation via Hyperspherical Latents and Masked Autoregressive modeling to achieve this goal by tackling two key bottlenecks: (1) variance and scale heterogeneity of continuous latent representations; (2) the difficulty of balancing generation efficiency with temporal correlation modeling. HALO first introduces a hyperspherical VAE that constrains continuous latents to a fixed-radius hyperspherical shell, effectively stabilizing the numerical fluctuations of continuous latent representations. Secondly, we develop a masked autoregressive model that balances parallel decoding and temporal correlation learning, substantially reducing the number of inference steps required for generation and improving generation stability. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that HALO achieves state-of-the-art generation performance while offering significantly improved inference efficiency over existing advanced baselines.

Chunyi Hou, Xiangfei Qiu, Hanyin Cheng +2

School of Data Science and Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

Variational Autoencoders Time Series Generation Autoregressive Generation Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 20, 2026cs.LG

One Patch, Three Roles: What Is Actually Coupled in Autoregressive Time-Series Forecasting?

Patch-based autoregressive time-series forecasting often ties input representation, learned transitions, and recursive execution to one patch length. We ask which of these roles can be adjusted separately. A supporting atomic-encoding study finds greater sensitivity to model width than to atom grouping on the evaluated grid. Our main finding is that a frozen parent's recursive trajectory is easier to fit than the observed future with lightweight parallel exits. Autoregressive Trajectory Distillation (ATD) turns this into selectable ATD-1/2/4/8 execution, with ATD-1 exactly recovering the parent. On a paired four-data-set comparison, ATD-8 reaches

5.54\times

end-to-end speedup with stable quality across widths. Fewer calls do not automatically remove the parent's existing forecast error: ATD improves trajectory fidelity in all 21 seed runs but forecast accuracy in only 15 against matched clean-future supervision. We further find a correctable residual projection along a train-selected periodic history direction. Spectrum Tangent applies this correction without adding neural parameters or Transformer calls. At horizon 720, it reduces mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by 2.54% and 2.33% over seven data sets and two output widths, while remaining

3.24\times

faster than recursive inference. Level and shape projections sometimes disagree. Trajectory compressibility, the fidelity-accuracy mismatch, and the correction recur across three public AR parents. Together these results separate representation, transition, and execution as AR design axes. Code is available at https://github.com/RowanFFF/ATD-Spectrum-Tangent.

Ziang Li, Yue Huang, Guoxu Zhou +4

Guangdong University of Technology · Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University · Harbin Institute of Technology

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Autoregressive Decoding Knowledge Distillation Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 16, 2026cs.SD

CPR: Combining global composing, local performing and full-sequence refining in piano rendering with continuous autoregressive modelling

Prompt-conditioned piano MIDI-to-Music rendering aims to faithfully render target notes while reproducing the timbre of a reference recording. Existing approaches primarily follow two paradigms: autoregressive (AR) modeling and flow matching (or diffusion). Discrete-codec AR models provide causal temporal modeling, but quantization can discard acoustic detail. Flow matching better preserves acoustic structure in the cost of full-sequence attention costs and worse semantic structure. Continuous autoregressive models operate directly on continuous representations. It not only combines the condition-following ability of AR models and distribution-modeling capacity of flow matching but also bypasses the quantization bottleneck with lower computational costs. Building on this principle, we present Composer--Performer--Refiner (CPR) framework. Composer autoregressively predicts continuous hidden states, Performer generates 24kHz acoustic latents through local flow matching and Refiner then upsamples the waveform to 48 kHz. We further introduce Bottlenecked Representation Alignment (BREPA) and Modality--Time RoPE (MT-RoPE) to strengthen musical semantic structure in Composer hidden states and temporal alignments across modalities. Codes are available at https://github.com/FEAfeatherTHER/CPR_official

Chong Jing, Junan Zhang, Zhizheng Wu

The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

Controllable Music Generation Music Generation Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 11, 2026cs.LG

Large Distant Gradients Need Not Be Reliable: reliability-weighted credit assignment for long-horizon autoregressive forecasting

In autoregressive forecasting, long prediction rollouts provide distant supervision, but backpropagation through time (BPTT) carries gradients from those losses through many autoregressive steps. Repeated Jacobian products can make distant gradients dominate the update while amplifying predictable signal and unpredictable innovation together; a large distant gradient therefore need not carry reliable learning signal. Motivated by this, we introduce Internal Dual-Wiener routing (Internal-DW), a backward-only intervention that preserves the full forward rollout and all step losses while reliability-weighting internal gradient routes. At each residual block, we derive bounded Wiener gains for the identity and nonlinear routes that balance preserving predictable learning signal against suppressing unpredictable variation, and estimate them from route-level gradient statistics and an explicit noise model. In a controlled system with known gradient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), we show that distant gradients can grow even as their SNR falls, and that Internal-DW reduces error in recovering predictable gradient signals and improves forecasting. On four history-dominated, weak-drive testbeds, Internal-DW reduces forecast error by 5.2%-13.8% relative to full BPTT, outperforms gradient clipping and Jacobian regularization on three testbeds, with similar performance on shear flow, and outperforms validation-selected truncated BPTT (TBPTT) on three. It also extends or preserves the fitted optimal training-horizon range across these four testbeds. Across benchmarks, the current Internal-DW estimator has a clear applicability boundary: its benefit diminishes or reverses when usable history is limited or when the selected sampler fails to represent dominant drive-dependent variation. The results show that retaining long-horizon supervision does not require trusting every backward contribution equally.

Junhao Zhao, David Michael Simberg, Jacob Kang +2

University of Maryland, College Park

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Backpropagation Temporal Credit Assignment Autoregressive Modeling

Sep 3, 2026cs.SD

Masked Autoregressive Speech Enhancement with Continuous Neural Audio Codec Representations

Most previous work on speech enhancement (SE) based on masked generative modeling relied on discrete token representations of audio signals, obtained using neural audio codecs (NACs). However, a recent study has shown that continuous latent representations of NACs can be advantageous for SE in terms of speech quality and intelligibility. In this work, we propose masked autoregressive SE (MARSE), a method for SE based on iterative decoding of masked clean speech frames using continuous NAC representations of speech. In particular, we investigate a set of different decoding policies, ceteris paribus, that is, using the same DNN (a Conformer model), the same NAC (the DAC codec) and the same training setup. The results show that MARSE enables a flexible trade-off between SE performance and computational cost. Audio examples and code are available online.

Yoto Fujita, Simon Leglaive, Laurent Girin

CentraleSup´elec, IETR (UMR CNRS 6164), France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, GIPSA-lab, France

Speech Enhancement Autoregressive Decoding Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 31, 2026cs.LG

Multivariate Scientific Data Compression with Learned Cross-Variable Latent Decorrelation and Autoregressive Entropy Modeling

Scientific simulations generate collections of physical fields with heterogeneous statistics and dependencies, yet learned compressors often encode those fields independently or rely on a shared encoder without explicitly modeling the structure that remains in latent space. We present CAESAR-LDAR, an error-controlled multivariate learned compressor that augments a shared CAESAR-V backbone with two complementary mechanisms: a trainable orthogonal transform that reorganizes dependence across aligned latent channels, and a causal autoregressive hierarchical prior that captures local spatial structure left after transformation. Orthogonality is maintained through a matrix-exponential parameterization, making the transform exactly invertible without an additional penalty. A common residual-correction stage is applied uniformly to all variants to enforce the requested reconstruction tolerance. Experiments across combustion, climate, and turbulence data show that the two mechanisms are useful in different regimes. Latent decorrelation helps most when substantial linear cross-channel dependence survives the nonlinear encoder, whereas autoregressive modeling remains effective when the remaining structure is primarily local or spatial. Their combination provides the strongest or near-strongest rate-distortion performance across the evaluated datasets. The global transform adds little computational overhead, while autoregressive coding introduces a larger throughput tradeoff. More broadly, the results suggest a practical design principle for multivariate scientific compression: exploit global cross-channel dependence when it is measurably present in latent space, and use local probabilistic context as a complementary mechanism across a wider range of data regimes.

Liangji Zhu, Anand Rangarajan, Sanjay Ranka

Department of Computer & Information Science & Engineering University of Florida Gainesville, FL, USA

Neural Network Compression Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 12, 2026cs.LG

FM-LLM: A frequency-enhanced mixture-of-experts framework for adapting LLMs to time series forecasting

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred cross-modal solutions for time-series forecasting. However, existing methods rely heavily on textual prompts for modality alignment-introducing nontrivial computational overhead and failing to leverage the rich spectral dynamics inherent in time-series data. To enable prompt-free, frequency-aware adaptation of frozen LLMs, we propose FM-LLM (Frequency-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts for adapting LLMs to Time Series Forecasting), an autoregressive framework grounded in constrained asymmetric coupling. A Fourier Analysis Network (FAN)-based spectral token aligner injects structured harmonic representations directly into the frozen LLM with numerical compatibility. An asymmetric Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) decoder enforces role separation: shared experts with lightweight FAN layers reconstruct the global periodic backbone, while routed experts-restricted to standard FFNs-specialize in modeling non-periodic residual dynamics. A time-frequency hybrid loss function jointly optimizes temporal accuracy and spectral consistency, mitigating error accumulation during long-horizon autoregressive rollouts. Evaluated across eleven public benchmarks, FM-LLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on 59 out of 78 evaluation metrics. Compared to the strongest autoregressive LLM-based baseline, it delivers average improvements of 5.3% in MSE and 5.6% in MAE, with maximum gains reaching 8.0% for MSE and 8.4% for MAE. FM-LLM also demonstrates robust transferability, maintaining superior performance in 10% few-shot and zero-shot forecasting scenarios.

Rentao Gu, Yihang Ding, Junjie Li +5

Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, China · China Telecom Research Institute, Beijing, 100032, China

Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting Mixture-of-Experts Models Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 11, 2026cs.CV

DSAR: Dual-Stream Autoregressive Modeling of Temporal Cloth Dynamics for Photorealistic Animatable Avatars

Creating photorealistic and temporally coherent animatable human avatars from RGB videos remains challenging. Current methods struggle to capture realistic cloth dynamics, producing over-smoothed appearance or severe artifacts on out-of-distribution poses. This limitation stems from a fundamental oversight: existing approaches neglect the temporal causality inherent in cloth physics, where current states emerge from previous states through temporal evolution rather than instantaneous skeletal configurations alone. Without explicit modeling of this causal structure, networks learn pose-appearance correlations instead of motion evolution, leading to poor generalization. We introduce a dual-stream autoregressive framework that explicitly models both observable geometric information and implicit internal state. The geometric stream propagates surface displacement from the previous frame, while the state stream fuses current features with historical states retrieved from a memory bank. Motion-adaptive aggregation handles spatially-varying dynamics, and adaptive regularization balances smoothness with flexibility. Experiments on challenging datasets demonstrate significant improvements in rendering quality, temporal consistency, and generalization to motion patterns beyond training distributions, validating that dual-stream temporal modeling enables realistic cloth dynamics.

Haozhong Xiong, Yao Yu, Yu Zhou +1

Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

3D Avatar Generation Human Avatar Animation Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 10, 2026cs.LG

ChronoSSM: Training for Temporally Aware Representations in Autoregressive State Space Models

Modern sequence models, from Transformers to State Space Models, have enabled powerful generative modeling across diverse domains, yet they are typically trained to predict what happens while treating when it happens as a secondary concern. In data-mining settings where events are associated with explicit timing information, this separation can limit temporal reasoning, anomaly detection, and faithful reconstruction of event chronology. A common strategy is to treat timing as an auxiliary signal, training a separate timing model using representations learned solely for event prediction. However, this two-stage approach implicitly assumes that representations optimized for event prediction already contain sufficient temporal structure. We introduce ChronoSSM, an autoregressive State Space Model (SSM) that jointly models events and timestamps with a shared backbone trained using combined token and temporal generation objectives. We compare the joint regime, where temporal supervision updates the backbone, with the two-stage regime, where timing is learned only using the frozen event representations. Across four domains spanning dense and partial timestamp supervision, joint training consistently makes inter-arrival information more recoverable from frozen representations without any systematic degradation in content-generation quality overall. Our results show that temporal supervision can produce more temporally informative representations without materially degrading autoregressive event modeling.

Adrien Schoen, Nachiketa Ratnakar Patil, Arjun Bhagoji +1

Institut universitaire de France

Representation Learning Sequence Modeling State Space Models Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 9, 2026cs.SD

CuteTTS: Efficient and High-Quality Speech Synthesis via Autoregressive Modeling of Continuous Latents

Zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) now supports interactive assistants, personalized media, and accessibility tools. All TTS systems require faithful linguistic rendering, consistent speaker identity, and low-latency response. Yet compact streaming systems must preserve sufficient acoustic detail in a predictable low-rate latent sequence, while iterative diffusion sampling and classifier-free guidance multiply inference cost at every autoregressive step. To strike a balance between high-fidelity synthesis and low-latency inference, we present CuteTTS, a compact continuous-autoregressive TTS system. It combines semantically aligned causal VAE latents with patch-level autoregression, explicit speaker conditioning, and a bidirectional flow-matching head. We further introduce guidance-step distillation, which absorbs classifier-free guidance and multiple solver steps into a single interval-conditioned student. Evaluations on LibriSpeech and Seed-TTS-Eval demonstrate competitive intelligibility and speaker similarity in zero-shot voice cloning, while distillation lowers first-audio latency by 23.3% and real-time factor by 40.8% relative to the base model with comparable objective and subjective quality. These results provide a practical path toward continuous-autoregressive TTS that reconciles high-fidelity generation with the latency demands of real-time interaction.

Yuqian Zhang, Yao Shi, Kexin Huang +6

Work done during internship at OPPO. · OPPO AI Center · Fudan University +1

TTS Synthesis Streaming TTS Synthesis Zero-Shot TTS Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 8, 2026cs.AI

PATH: Next-Interval Prediction via Autoregressive Tree Hierarchy on Tabular Data

Interval prediction aims to achieve a target coverage level while producing intervals that are as short as possible. Many conformal regression pipelines first predict an uncertainty surrogate and then convert it into an interval through calibration or selection. This separation supports coverage calibration, but post hoc rules largely determine the final interval and do not fully use the learned output distribution. We observe that the resulting intervals have inherently hierarchical geometry: an interval can be recursively refined into nested subintervals, and binary trees naturally represent this structure. We formulate this hierarchy as next-interval prediction and propose PATH, which learns how probability mass flows from each interval to its next nested subintervals. PATH predicts a base leaf distribution and uses an autoregressive decoder to refine branch probabilities. Matching the distribution to the interval hierarchy aligns learning with extraction: PATH accumulates probability over adjacent output intervals and returns the shortest contiguous range reaching a selected mass. We compare PATH with 24 baselines for interval prediction on PATHBench, comprising 56 OpenML regression datasets. PATH substantially shortens the resulting intervals, achieving the lowest mean normalized length, 0.1473, while maintaining mean coverage of 0.9144. These results establish hierarchical output modeling as an effective approach for compact interval prediction on tabular data. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/pxcai/PATH.

Pengxiang Cai, Wanchen Lian, Chenyang Liu +4

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · Ant Group

Regression Prediction Intervals Tabular Regression Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 7, 2026cs.LG

Stochastic Autoregressive Learning

Motivated by LLMs, which generate outputs by iteratively sampling from next-token distributions, we introduce a PAC-learning model for binary stochastic autoregressive learning. This generalizes the deterministic autoregressive learning framework of Joshi et al., COLT 2025. In our model, one fixed generator assigns a Bernoulli next-token distribution to every prompt string. Starting from an input prompt, a token is sampled and appended to the prompt; the same generator is then applied again to this expanded prompt; this procedure is repeated for

M

steps. Three forms of supervision are considered: base one-step samples, chain-of-thought (CoT) samples that reveal full random trajectories of length

M

, and end-to-end (e2e) samples that reveal only the final token of length

M

trajectories. For a generator class, we study the minimum number of samples

m_{base}(\varepsilon),m_{CoT}(\varepsilon), m_{e2e}(\varepsilon)

, resp., required to learn the one-step probabilities in the base model, and the final-token probability in the CoT and e2e models, under squared loss error~

\varepsilon

. We show that stochastic autoregressive learning fundamentally differs from the deterministic theory. At scale

\varepsilon

, there is no universal comparison between the three learning tasks: both

m_{CoT}/m_{base}

and

m_{e2e}/m_{CoT}

can be made simultaneously arbitrarily larger than

M/\varepsilon

, the natural analogue for the existing deterministic results. Nevertheless, after altering scales, for every class, CoT learning at scale

\varepsilon

is upper-bounded by base learning at scale

\varepsilon/M^2

, whereas e2e learning at scale

\varepsilon

is upper-bounded, up to logarithmic factors, by

(M/\varepsilon) m_{CoT}(Θ(\varepsilon))

. These dependencies and scales are essentially tight. We complement these bounds by studying dimension

d

logistic functions in our model.

Ilan Doron-Arad, Idan Mehalel, Elchanan Mossel

1MIT · 2The Hebrew University

Autoregressive Generation PAC Learning Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 4, 2026cs.CV

GeoMAR: Unleashing Geometrically Aligned Features for Masked Autoregressive Blind Face Restoration

Codebook-based blind face restoration (BFR) often suffers from ambiguous conditioning features and a fragile prediction mechanism under severe degradation. To address these challenges, we propose GeoMAR, a framework designed to unleash geometrically aligned features with masked autoregressive (MAR) refinement for robust face restoration. For feature conditioning, we introduce a dual-input extraction pipeline to extract component-based geometric descriptions with explicit, spatially faithful anchors. These textual priors are integrated with low-quality (LQ) features via an Aligned Geometric Priors Injector, which employs a KV-Q exchange strategy to generate geometrically aligned features. For prediction mechanism, we reformulate the one-step mapping into a multi-step MAR process. This coarse-to-fine generation progressively refines complex facial regions based on increasingly reliable context. Experiments on one synthetic and three real-world benchmarks demonstrate that GeoMAR achieves highly competitive perceptual quality and coherent visual structures compared with existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/BRL-SYSU/GeoMAR.git.

Lu Gan, Hanyu Yan, Chaofeng Chen +2

School of Artificial Intelligence, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China

Image Restoration Autoregressive Modeling

Aug 4, 2026cs.SD

CLASVS: Continuous-Latent Autoregression for Melody-Preserving Lyric Editing in Singing Voice Synthesis

Reference-conditioned melody-preserving lyric editing replaces words while retaining a performance's timing, singer identity, and naturalness. Continuous-latent autoregression avoids finite codebooks and offers stepwise generation with learned stopping. Editing creates a conflict absent from ordinary reconstruction: training pairs reference cues with original lyrics, whereas inference asks revised lyrics to override source-lyric-correlated cues; one source-following patch can propagate through AR history. We introduce CLASVS. Its State-Control-Transition (SCT) routing keeps target-lyric and reference-melody controls persistent, returns semantic feedback on phonetic progress to the causal planner, and confines the previous latent patch to the local Transition. Progressive State-Control Grounding (PSCG) learns this contract through paired-edit-free, content-consistent Mandarin reconstruction. On two Mandarin benchmarks, CLASVS improves all four operations over discrete-AR Vevo2 and reduces macro-PER by 46.2%, while maintaining melody, singer similarity, and perceptual quality. Together, these results establish a strong continuous-AR operating point for score-annotation-free lyric edits and a basis for broader stepwise control. Audio demonstrations are available on our project page: https://piedpiperg.github.io/clasvs-demo/.

Yizhong Geng, Tian-Hao Zhang, Chunfeng Wang +7

Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China · Li Auto Inc., Beijing, China · Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Singing Voice Synthesis Audio Editing Audio Generation Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 28, 2026cs.CV

Freq-RemoteVAR: Next-Frequency Autoregressive Modeling for Remote Sensing Change Detection

Remote sensing change detection aims to identify land-cover changes from bi-temporal images. Most existing methods follow a one-shot dense prediction paradigm, directly regressing a change mask from fused features. However, such approaches overlook the intrinsic frequency characteristics of change patterns. We propose Freq-RemoteVAR, a frequency autoregressive framework that reformulates change detection as a structured generation problem in the frequency domain. Instead of predicting the change mask in a single step, we introduce a next-frequency prediction paradigm, where change information is progressively generated from coarse to fine. We design a frequency-aware mask tokenization strategy that decomposes change supervision into multi-frequency token targets via Fourier transformation and quantization. We develop a Frequency VAR Transformer, which performs causal autoregressive modeling over frequency tokens. The model starts from learned mask queries and progressively predicts frequency-level tokens conditioned on previously generated tokens and bi-temporal image features, effectively capturing long-range dependencies across frequency scales. We introduce Scale-Aligned RoPE Cross Attention (SRCA) module, which aligns frequency-domain mask queries with spatial-domain bi-temporal features under a unified coordinate system, enhancing spatial-frequency consistency during generation. We propose a Change-quality Control module that adaptively modulates the generation process through dynamic normalization, attention biasing, and spatial offset adjustment, thereby suppressing pseudo-change responses and improving robustness. Extensive experiments on CDD, GZ-CD, and LEVIR-CD demonstrate that Freq-RemoteVAR consistently outperforms existing methods, particularly in challenging scenarios with complex appearance variations and noisy disturbances.

Luqi Gong, Rui Xu, Yue Chen +3

Research Center for Space Computing System, Zhejiang Lab, Hangzhou 311121, China · State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China · Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, Hunan, China +2

Visual Autoregressive Models Frequency-Domain Feature Learning Remote Sensing Change Detection Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 26, 2026math.NA

No Free Lunch in Flow Surrogates under Time-Varying Boundary Conditions: A Two-Regime Study

We test whether an architecture that succeeds on a simple flow regime also succeeds on a richer one, with each trained separately on each regime. We explore two transient flows under time-varying boundary conditions: the three-dimensional slurry film in chemical-mechanical planarisation (CMP), central to semiconductor manufacturing, and the two-dimensional Kármán vortex street (KVS). Eight surrogate models on one shared pipeline differ in whether they learn the full field or a latent representation, and in whether they predict in one shot or step by step. No single architecture wins both regimes. On the film, a one-shot full-field model reconstructs the cumulative wall shear stress to 2.7% relative error. On the wake, a latent autoregressive DeepONet retains 90% of the shedding power that direct and one-shot models damp to almost zero. The treatment of time decides the outcome. The self-sustained wake calls for autoregressive feedback and the boundary-driven film for a direct map. Pointwise RMSE hides the damped oscillation on the wake, compresses the sixfold lead on the film's process target, and picks the damped model under wake extrapolation. The evaluation scores five physical questions. Trained surrogates answer queries 10^3 to 10^4 times faster than the finite-element solver and pay off from the first query beyond the training set on the film and from the third on the wake. Neither the winning architecture nor its validation holds across regimes. The choice of surrogate should follow the dynamical character of the target flow, and its validation should resolve the failure modes.

Georg Winkler, Martin Stoll

Department of Mathematics, Chemnitz University of Technology, 09111, Chemnitz, Germany

Neural Surrogate Modeling PDE Surrogate Modeling Neural Operators Computational Fluid Dynamics Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 24, 2026cs.LG

Pretraining EHR Foundation Models with Patient-Aware Sampling

Autoregressive foundation models for electronic health records (EHRs) typically inherit pretraining methods from language modeling, where patient trajectories are concatenated into a single token stream and windows are sampled from that stream. In EHR data, this choice is consequential: windows may mix multiple patients, and patients with longer records contribute more optimization updates, potentially introducing bias. We propose Patient Sampling, a pretraining sequence-construction method that allows us to control how training signal is distributed across patients. We compare this method to the standard approach, which we refer to as Global Stream. We show that stochastic Patient Sampling with controllable weighting improves performance on real-world EHR data. Across downstream clinical tasks on MIMIC-IV v2.2 and v3.1, Patient Sampling improves Macro AUROC and AUPRC over the Global Stream baseline. These results identify training and validation sequence construction as important and underexplored design choices for autoregressive EHR foundation models.

Joshua Placidi, Yuxuan Liu, Jinpei Han +2

Dept. of Computing, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom · Dept. of Bioengineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom · UKRI Centres in AI for Health, United Kingdom +1

Longitudinal EHR Modeling Electronic Health Records Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Nipping the Butterfly Effect in the Bud: Self-Output Fine-Tuning for Autoregressive Weather Prediction

Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm. Although the autoregressive pipeline is highly scalable and flexible, its prediction errors grow rapidly over long forecasting horizons. In this work, we study this error growth phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Our analysis reveals that the growth is driven by a feedback loop between output errors and input distribution shifts. Specifically, the autoregressive process amplifies small initial output errors, which progressively corrupt subsequent input distributions, echoing the butterfly effect in atmospheric science and ultimately deteriorating forecasting accuracy over longer horizons. Furthermore, we show that this distributional shift originates at the earliest stage of inference, with out-of-distribution signatures detectable as early as the first autoregressive step. To mitigate this issue, we propose \textbf{Self-Output Fine-Tuning (SOFT)}, a plug-and-play strategy that leverages the model's own one-step predictions to calibrate the biased input distribution encountered at the first step. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, SOFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon forecasting tasks and substantially reduces both prediction errors and distributional discrepancy. The success of SOFT highlights the importance of reexamining the fundamental pipeline of deep learning weather prediction, representing a critical pipeline advance for atmospheric science.

Yun-Ye Cai, Hsuan-Tien Lin

National Taiwan University · Taipei, Taiwan

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Distribution Shift Weather Forecasting Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 22, 2026cs.LG

CEDAR: Causal Edge Discovery for Autoregressive Processes

We propose CEDAR (Causal Edge Discovery for Autoregressive Processes), a constraint-based method for lagged causal edge discovery in sparse autoregressive time series. CEDAR screens candidate cross-variable lags using AR(1)-residualized, U-centered distance correlation, then applies two targeted conditional-independence tests per significant cross-variable lag candidate and accepts at most one lag per ordered pair. A stable MCI pruning step removes indirect edges, and optional deterministic C-nodes adjust for specified trend-like nonstationarity. In sparse regimes where few lags survive screening, CEDAR requires

O(d^2)

CI tests after screening while retaining edge-level interpretability. CEDAR is most effective when data are scarce and variables exhibit lag-1 self-dynamics; methods with richer conditioning sets become preferable as

T

grows or when higher-order autoregressive or simultaneous multi-lag effects are common.

Mohammad Fesanghary

Bloomberg LP

Time-Series Causal Discovery Causal Discovery Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 21, 2026cs.LG

Agent-Centric Animal Pose Forecasting

Understanding animal behavior at an algorithmic level -- what animals attend to, how they form internal models and plans, and how this maps to action -- remains a central challenge in neuroscience and ethology. Data-driven generative models offer a path toward this understanding. We introduce a framework for training agent-centric autoregressive models of animal behavior from tracked pose, applicable to single animals and to groups in which each agent senses and responds to its conspecifics. Our models input egocentric sensory observations and output egocentric movements, mirroring the biological constraint that animals observe and act on the world from their own reference frame. Social behavior emerges from agents independently sensing and responding to one another. This agent-centric formulation requires managing many parallel representations of the same data, along with ML-specific transformations like discretization. We release a general-purpose library focused on the composable sequences of operations that translate between these representations. We show that trained models capture the distribution of social behavior in groups of courting Drosophila, and our library includes quantitative tools for measuring fit. We demonstrate how the library supports systematic comparison across input and output representations and that it adapts straightforwardly to a new domain.

Eyrun Eyjolfsdottir, Kristin Branson

HHMI Janelia Research Campus Ashburn, VA 20147

Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Animal Behavior Analysis Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

VAIOM: Continuous-Input, Discrete-Output Decoder-Only Financial Sequence Modeling

Financial observations are continuous, heterogeneous, and noisy, whereas decoder-only next-token models are usually built around discrete symbolic inputs. We introduce Vector-Input Autoregressive Inference for Ordinal-Return Modeling (VAIOM), a decoder-only Transformer for probabilistic next-return modeling on one-hour foreign-exchange bars. VAIOM separates input representation from output likelihood: continuous multivariate financial-event vectors preserve numerical structure at the input, while a categorical distribution over the next volatility-normalized return bucket supports cross-entropy training and likelihood evaluation. The selected 0.9M Hybrid Continuous Input model combines continuous event features with categorical asset metadata, a Mixture-of-Market-States return head, Gap, volatility-regime, and Ordinal auxiliary objectives, and full-sequence supervision. Models and preprocessing are fit using pre-2024 Train data; models are selected on 2024H2 Validation and evaluated without refitting on two 2025 Test periods. Across three independent training seeds, every model outperforms fixed single-bar LightGBM baseline in both Test halves. For the canonical checkpoint, paired gains over LightGBM are 0.029 and 0.043 bits per event. Validation experiments show that continuous input improves over discrete-token input under the same categorical return objective, full-sequence supervision improves over last-position training, and auxiliary representation shaping together with a mixture-structured return head improves return likelihood in controlled comparisons. A supporting capacity study finds that the smallest evaluated complete architecture rung achieves the strongest Validation likelihood on the present corpus.

Yiming Ma, Xinyu Chen

Decoder-Only Language Models Time Series Forecasting Financial Time Series Time Series Transformers Finance Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 6, 2026physics.ao-ph

AIFS-SUBS: Extending Data-Driven Forecasting to Sub-Seasonal Timescales

Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records. To address these challenges, we adapt ECMWF's AIFS-CRPS medium-range model. AIFS-SUBS adopts a 24h autoregressive time step to reduce error accumulation, adds stratospheric levels and top-of-atmosphere thermal radiation as predictors, and reserves 2007--2011 as an independent verification window. We evaluate two config-durations: AIFS-SUBS, fine-tuned on operational analyses, and AIFS-SUBS-ERA5, trained on ERA5 alone. Across weeks 2--6, AIFS-SUBS matches the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in probabilistic skill while reducing systematic biases. For the convective (OLR) component of the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), AIFS-SUBS extends skilful forecasts (correlation > 0.5) by eight days relative to the IFS, while matching or exceeding the IFS for the full multivariate RMM index. AIFS-SUBS also reproduces the observed MJO modulation of tropical cyclone activity comparably. Stratospheric skill is particularly strong with AIFS-SUBS reproducing sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) frequency and surface impact. In the AI Weather Quest, AIFS-SUBS-ERA5 attains a variable-averaged ranked probability skill score slightly ahead of the IFS at weeks 3 and 4. At inference, AIFS-SUBS uses about 200 times less energy than the IFS, opening the door to much larger real-time ensembles. AIFS-SUBS is ECMWF's first machine-learning model targeted at sub-seasonal time-scales.

Jakob Schloer, Steffen Tietsche, Christopher D. Roberts +6

1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Probabilistic Forecasting Weather Forecasting Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 2, 2026cs.CV

DeepGaze3.5-VL: Modeling Scanpaths via Autoregressive Token Prediction

Understanding human visual attention on a scene over time has applications in domains such as interface design and inferring cognitive states. Modeling visual scanpaths has historically relied on specialized architectures with hand-crafted priors. While these architectures can model fixation sequences, their rigid structural biases restrict easy extendability and flexible conditioning. For instance, integrating task-specific instructions or adapting to distinct viewer identities requires custom, disjoint architectural additions. We frame scanpath prediction purely as a discrete sequence modeling task. By mapping coordinates into a text vocabulary, we leverage the pretrained representations of Vision-Language Models. This framing absorbs diverse factors of variation: simple prompting allows for global conditioning, such as providing viewer identities to capture personalized biases, or task-specific objectives like visual search. The framework can also integrate per-fixation attributes, such as individual fixation durations, alongside spatial locations. The autoregressive alignment enables the scalable, exact computation of per-fixation log-likelihoods, directly equivalent to the commonly used Information Gain (IG) metric. Our model, DeepGaze3.5-VL, establishes a new state-of-the-art across multiple datasets, achieving 2.18 bits of IG on MIT1003, a 46% improvement over DeepGaze III. This advantage persists even when baselines use identical high-capacity vision encoders. Beyond predictive performance, our generative framework serves as a powerful computational tool for direct behavioral interventions, allowing for controlled in-silico simulations that would be experimentally difficult or impossible to conduct in vivo. We demonstrate this ability by performing controlled interventions on the durations of pre-saccadic fixations, recovering known oculomotor phenomena purely from data.

Susmit Agrawal, Matthias Bethge, Matthias Kümmerer

University of Tübingen · Tübingen AI Center · IMPRS-IS

Visual Attention Attention Mechanisms Autoregressive Modeling

Jul 1, 2026stat.ML

Neural Network-Based Estimation of Time-Dependent Parameters in AR(p) Processes

We investigate a forecasting framework based on a simple discrete-time dynamic model with coefficients varying in time. The parameters of the model are recovered within a deep learning framework, which makes it possible to retain a transparent parametric structure while simultaneously accounting for complex and nonstationary patterns in the observed phenomenon. Our analysis covers two specifications of the noise process. Besides the standard Gaussian setting, we also consider Laplace-distributed noise, which can offer a more adequate description in the presence of heavier tails and sharper local fluctuations. For both cases, we formulate the predictive scheme of the model and analyze the associated uncertainty quantification, including the construction of prediction intervals. The results illustrate that a relatively simple model, when combined with time-dependent parameter estimation, can serve as a mathematically tractable and practically flexible tool for forecasting complex dynamics under different noise assumptions. The general model is stated for TVAR(

p

), while the prediction-interval formulas and the numerical experiments are developed for the TVAR(1) case.

Agnieszka Kopeć, Paweł Przybyłowicz, Martyna Wiącek

Parameter Estimation Probabilistic Forecasting Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Regression Prediction Intervals Autoregressive Modeling

Jun 30, 2026physics.ao-ph

Scaling Storm-Resolving Atmospheric AI Simulation to the Entire Planet

Kilometer-scale convection shapes precipitation extremes, tropical organization, and cloud feedbacks, but most global atmospheric models approximate these processes at 25-100 km resolution. Global storm-resolving physics models resolve convective systems explicitly, but at a cost -- roughly one MWh per simulated day on exascale supercomputers -- that limits long-duration simulation. We introduce STRATA (Storm-resolving Tile-based autoRegressive Atmosphere Transformer Architecture), the first autoregressive AI emulator for global storm-resolving atmospheric dynamics. STRATA is trained on the highest-resolution atmospheric dataset yet used for global AI emulation: 17 days of SCREAM physics-model output at 4.9-km resolution (~25 million grid cells) sampled every 10 minutes. Our central premise is that on 10-minute timescales atmospheric dynamics are predominantly local, so training on small spatial tiles trades scarce global temporal samples for abundant local spatial samples and enables global rollout via overlapping-tile blending. STRATA combines 3D patch embedding and local 3D neighborhood attention, a novel Stereographic Rotary Position Embedding (StereoRoPE) for grid-invariant encoding, and a pixel-space de-aliasing decoder that suppresses patch-scale rollout artifacts. An iso-FLOP scaling study reveals that km-scale emulation requires ~10x more FLOPs per grid point than coarse-resolution AI weather models, consistent with the higher information density of convective-scale dynamics. Trained on only 17 days of data, STRATA produces stable 24-hour global rollouts with realistic km-scale dynamics across diverse regimes, though large-scale biases develop with lead time. It achieves 48 simulation days per megawatt-hour -- about 50 times better energy efficiency than the SCREAM physics model -- and 741 simulated days per wall-clock day at 512 H100 GPUs. Code and dataset are publicly available.

Zeyuan Hu, Akshay Subramaniam, Noel Keen +9

NVIDIA · LBNL · PNNL +1

AI for Science Transformer Computational Fluid Dynamics Autoregressive Modeling

Jun 30, 2026cs.AI

Long-term Traffic Simulation via Structured Autoregressive Modeling

Interactive traffic simulation is a vital world model for autonomous driving. A central challenge in long-horizon simulation is modeling sustained multi-agent interactions, which is further exacerbated by dynamic token cardinality as agents continuously enter and exit the scene. In this work, we propose that the solution lies in the synergy between the architectural inductive biases and statistical priors of large-scale sequence models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs). Our probing experiments reveal that the transferability of attention mechanisms and the distributional consistency between motion tokens and natural language enable small-scale, heavily frozen LLMs to rapidly adapt to traffic modeling. Building on this insight, we introduce RosettaSim, a unified framework that projects scene topology, agent states, and spawning intents into a structured autoregressive stream with variable length, achieving both strong short-term accuracy and stable long-horizon simulation fidelity. Furthermore, evaluating extended rollouts presents yet another hurdle, as one-to-one agent correspondence inevitably fades over time. To address this, we introduce Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE), which retrieves semantically similar real-world scenarios as context-aware reference anchors. Experiments on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) demonstrate that RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term simulation. Furthermore, RTE exhibits a stronger correlation with standard metrics (

r=0.83

) than existing approaches (

r=0.74

), indicating improved alignment with long-horizon simulation fidelity.

Lingyu Xiao, Zexin Feng, Xintao Yan

The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

Intelligent Transportation Systems Autonomous Driving Simulation Autoregressive Modeling

Jun 22, 2026cs.CV

MotionMAR: Multi-scale Auto-Regressive Human Motion Reconstruction from Sparse Observations

Human motion follows a temporal hierarchical structure, transitioning from low-frequency global trajectories to high-frequency details. Inspired by the success of multi-level autoregressive models in computer vision, we propose MotionMAR, a coarse-to-fine framework for motion reconstruction from sparse observations. It first estimates the global trajectory of human motion and then gradually refines the temporal details. This architecture consists of four integrated components. The Temporal Multi-scale Tokenization (TMT) VQ-VAE encodes the data at multiple temporal resolutions, separating semantic motion from minor jitters. The Motion Autoregressive Network (MAN) operates in this latent space, predicting motion across scales. It first establishes the global structure through coarse indices and then generates finer indices to recover specific details. Meanwhile, the Scale-Aware Control (SAC) module integrates sparse tracking data to ensure the generated output aligns with actual observations. The Motion Refinement Network (MRN) subsequently smooths consecutive poses and eliminates quantization artifacts. Experiments show that MotionMAR achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the AMASS dataset, providing a reliable and structure-aware approach for motion reconstruction. The source code is publicly available at http://www.lidarhumanmotion.net/motionmar/.

Yuhua Luo, Junsheng Zhang, Mengyin Liu +7

Fujian Key Laboratory of Urban Intelligent Sensing and Computing, Xiamen University · Key Laboratory of Multimedia Trusted Perception and Efficient Computing, Ministry of Education of China, School of Informatics, Xiamen University · National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University +1

3D Reconstruction Vector-Quantized Variational Autoencoder Autoregressive Modeling