Bayesian Networks

Learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data is a challenging combinatorial problem due to the exponential growth in the number of candidate parent-set configurations. Existing exact score-based methods often require computationally intensive combinatorial search, whereas constraint-based methods can become unreliable or computationally demanding as graph size and conditioning-set complexity increase. We develop a non-parametric hybrid framework, referred to as DECO (Directional Evidence-guided Configuration Optimization), that extracts dependency and directional evidence from observation data to construct admissible parent sets prior to exact optimization. It reduces the optimization search space by eliminating empirically unsupported parent configurations while preserving flexibility for all plausible edge orientations. Theoretical analysis establishes an exponential reduction in the admissible parent-set configuration space and quantifies how bounded edge-level omission affects the probability of retaining the true parent structure. Experiments on benchmark Bayesian networks and synthetic discrete and continuous DAGs demonstrate substantial search-space reduction while achieving competitive structure-recovery performance, with favorable structural Hamming distance across many evaluated settings. These results show that directional evidence can provide an effective preprocessing mechanism for reducing the computational burden of exact DAG learning without requiring a fixed parametric structural~model.

Large language models are increasingly used as natural-language interfaces to structured data, yet they remain unreliable when answers require consistent evidence conditioning, dependency-aware reasoning, and uncertainty estimation. Bayesian networks provide an explicit probabilistic reasoning layer, but learning useful structures from data remains costly and fragile at scale. We introduce ABSOL, a hybrid LLM-guided Bayesian network structure-learning framework that uses LLMs as bounded semantic guides. Across five discrete BN benchmarks spanning 27 to 1041 nodes, ABSOL is the only evaluated method to produce a viable graph on every benchmark, and achieves the highest Edge F_1 on every benchmark larger than 27 nodes with GPT-5.4. The four LLM augmentations, which contribute complementary semantic evidence to the statistical backbone, improve Edge F_1 over the non-LLM aggregation backbone by +0.23 on average. Complementary post-hoc refinement experiments suggest that these gains depend in part on limiting the LLM's authority over the final structure. Together, these results show that language-derived semantic knowledge can substantially improve scalable probabilistic structure learning when used as bounded guidance within a statistically grounded reasoning pipeline. The code for ABSOL is available at github.com/megagonlabs/absol-bn.

This paper introduces an evolutionary computation approach for consensus in structural Bayesian Network (BN) fusion under the constraint of limited treewidth. The consensus BN aims to reconcile multiple input BNs into a single one that retains key structural features present in the original networks. Treewidth, a graph-based parameter associated with computationally tractable inference, is utilized to restrict the complexity of the resulting network. A genetic algorithm is proposed to look for a BN that codifies as much information about the unrestricted fusion as possible while ensuring the treewidth restriction. Experimental evaluation demonstrates the genetic algorithm's ability to obtain consensus BNs with limited treewidth, providing a valuable tool for aggregating information from diverse sources while returning a computationally actionable model.

We present a method for recovering the moral graph of a causal DAG from a probability distribution over discrete variables, using fully connected tensor networks (FCTNs) with nuclear-norm-regularized bond corrections. Each bond matrix is parameterized as a baseline all-ones matrix plus a low-rank correction $C_{ij} = U_{ij}V_{ij}^\top$, and the nuclear norm of the correction implemented via the variational Frobenius norm penalty on the factors drives unnecessary bonds to zero. We prove that under faithfulness, positivity, and a no-implicit-rerouting assumption on the local tensor architecture, \textbf{every} optimal FCTN with zero reconstruction error $\varepsilon = 0$ has effective graph exactly equal to the moral graph. For the approximate regime ($\varepsilon > 0$), we provide explicit recovery bounds using the Fannes-Audenaert continuity of conditional mutual information, and derive a sufficient condition on the regularization parameter $β$. The effective graph is read directly from the optimized bond matrices.

Travel survey data are essential for transportation planning and travel behavior analysis, yet collecting large-scale representative samples is costly and time-consuming. A practical alternative is to generate synthetic survey records from a few-shot sample. However, such samples provide incomplete coverage of heterogeneous traveler groups and insufficient evidence for recovering the complex dependencies between demographic characteristics and travel behavior. Existing approaches have complementary limitations. Probabilistic generative models such as Bayesian networks (BNs) offer explicit distributional control, but structures learned from few-shot samples may omit meaningful dependencies or retain spurious ones. Large language models (LLMs) can help address these difficulties in BN structure learning by providing behavioral knowledge that complements the limited statistical evidence. We therefore propose LEBGen, an LLM-enhanced BN framework that uses this knowledge to refine network structure for few-shot travel survey data generation. Specifically, the LLM first identifies traveler personas from demographic attribute and travel behavior statistics, then recovers dependencies missed by the persona-augmented BN structure and prune spurious ones. The refined BN is parameterized exclusively from the observed data to generate synthetic records. Under a 2% few-shot setting on the 2022 Hong Kong Travel Characteristics Survey, LEBGen reduces the mean marginal Jensen-Shannon divergence from 0.0671 to 0.0091 and the mean absolute Cramer's V error by 14.3% over the best-performing baseline, substantially improving both distributional and dependency fidelity.

Bayesian Network (BN) fusion combines multiple input networks into a single structure, balancing dependency preservation with computational tractability. While unrestricted fusion retains all dependencies, it often results in overly complex networks with high treewidth, which affects inference scalability. Limited fusion mitigates this by pruning edges to control treewidth but risks overfitting to input-specific noise and omitting dependencies from the original BNs. This paper introduces a consensus framework that prioritizes shared structures among input networks while enforcing treewidth constraints, ensuring a good consensus. We propose genetic algorithms with advanced initialization, specialized operators, and a tailored fitness function. Additionally, we adapt existing methods to this problem and implement greedy baselines for benchmarking and further optimization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world BNs show the superiority of the proposed genetic algorithms over the adapted methods and greedy baselines.

Survival analysis is an established framework for analyzing time-to-event data, yet many clinical machine learning studies still binarize the outcome before model training. This practice excludes censored patients, collapses temporal information into a single threshold, and can affect which features are selected as prognostically relevant. We examine the cost of this binarization in the context of Bayesian network (BN) feature selection, using two recent publications as case studies: one that applies BN-based feature selection to a head-and-neck cancer cohort and a second surgical cohort study that, while not BN-based, likewise binarizes its survival endpoint. We replace the binary scoring function with the Cox partial log-likelihood for feature-to-outcome edges, a modification we call the Survival-Aware Bayesian network, and recover prognostic features that binarization misses. Our ablation experiment confirms that the improvement is driven by the time-to-event scoring formulation rather than by retaining more patients. The results generalize across five endpoint-cohort combinations in head-and-neck cancer and extend to three further cancer types (breast, colorectal, and kidney). We propose that clinical studies with survival outcomes should use time-to-event methods by default, as binarization discards the prognostic signal retained by survival analysis.

Tabular data generation supports analysis and decision-making when target-domain data are scarce, yet collecting complete target samples is often costly. A practical but underexplored setting provides only a few target records together with richer source data from a related domain. Existing few-shot tabular generators often either fit sparse target statistics directly, which can overfit incidental patterns, or reuse source-domain generators, which may preserve dependencies that no longer hold in the target domain. To address this problem, we propose LAB-Tab, an LLM-augmented Bayesian network (BN) adaptation framework for source-aware few-shot tabular generation. LAB-Tab first fits a BN from source data and then uses an LLM to propose plausible target-domain BN edges that are absent from the source BN graph. This step converts semantic and weak statistical evidence into explicit structural hypotheses, thereby expanding the editable edge space beyond the source-fitted graph. Because the proposed edges may be noisy and interact with existing dependencies, a PPO policy calibrates edges in the augmented BN through edge-level actions, including keep, weaken, strengthen, flip, and deactivate. The PPO policy is trained with a reward that combines distributional alignment, downstream utility, and preservation of target-relevant dependencies. The adapted BN is then sampled to synthesize target-domain tables. Across six source--target distribution-shift scenarios built from three US Census (ACS) prediction tasks, LAB-Tab achieves the best performance at the 10% target-data budget, leads four of the six individual scenarios, and reduces the macro Overall score by 33.8% relative to the strongest baseline. It also obtains the best macro JSD, WAPE, and UtilityGap while maintaining competitive feature--label preservation.

Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, \textit{BAyesian Network Distribution regression} (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the feature dimension to grow polynomially with the sample size. These rates are substantially faster than the classical optimal rates for multivariate histogram density estimators that lack sparsity. Empirical evaluations show that BAND performs competitively for data sampling and confidence region forecasting against a range of state-of-the-art benchmarks.

The problem of learning the graphical Markov blanket (MB) of a variable from data has applications in many areas such as structure learning for Bayesian networks and Markov random fields, causal discovery, and feature selection. However, a common assumption most methods make is that the conditional independencies in the distribution imply the same separation in the graphical structure -- also known as the faithfulness assumption. Unfortunately, this assumption can be violated by higher-order dependencies such as XOR and parity-type relations, and -- on finite samples -- by empirical violations that, in extreme cases, even induce spurious dependencies absent from the true distribution. Therefore, in this paper we propose a "k-order" relaxation of the faithfulness assumption that captures parity type relationships between k+2 variables. We then propose a proof of concept algorithm called k-order Markov blanket (kOMB) that uses this relaxation for MB discovery. Finally, we empirically show how kOMB can recover the MB of a variable under both true and empirical violations of faithfulness. Code available at: https://github.com/lklee9/k-order-Markov-blanket

This paper investigates how multi-agent systems (MAS)-based on large language models (LLMs) can support actuarial risk modelling, with a particular focus on uncertainty quantification. Actuarial workflows represent a high-stakes decision-support setting where unreliable outputs may lead to incorrect risk assessment, unfair pricing, and regulatory non-compliance. To address uncertainty introduced by the probabilistic nature of LLMs and dependencies between agents, a multi-agent framework is proposed in which specialised agents perform data preparation, modelling, review, and explanation tasks under a central hub. The main contribution is a novel approach to uncertainty propagation using token-level log-probabilities and a Bayesian Network. Importantly, log probabilities are not treated as direct probabilities of correctness or task success. Instead, length-normalised log-probability summaries are transformed into calibrated task-level confidence estimates before incorporation into the Bayesian Network. Results show that the framework reproduces baseline actuarial performance while providing additional insight into workflow stability and runtime uncertainty propagation.

Bayesian causal discovery is widely used for its ability to quantify epistemic uncertainty over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) through posterior inference. However, its behaviour under latent confounding remains poorly understood, as existing work typically notes that confounding breaks identifiability without characterising how the posterior distribution over DAGs responds. In this work, we analyse posterior behaviour under latent confounding in linear Gaussian causal models, focusing on additive latent confounding between exactly two observed variables. We derive a critical correlation threshold above which the score function favours graphs with a spurious edge between the confounded variables, and show that this threshold decreases with sample size -- more data lowers the correlation required for the spurious edge to be favoured. Beyond this threshold, we characterize two distinct posterior failure regimes determined by the local structure around the confounded variables. Our findings are supported by exact posterior computations on multiple graph structures, demonstrating both the predicted failure regimes.

Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional Bayesian networks is difficult because exact manipulation of the joint distribution scales exponentially with network size. We propose a decomposition framework based on directed convex subgraphs and introduce a minimal d-decomposition tree. Together, they provide a principled alternative to classical junction-tree constructions. The proposed framework represents the joint distribution by lower-dimensional sub-models that can be learned and stored separately. This decomposition reduces computational cost and naturally enables parallel computation. Based on a minimal d-decomposition tree, we further develop two parallel algorithms for parameter estimation and probabilistic inference. Experiments show that the proposed method substantially improves computational efficiency over junction-tree methods while maintaining inference accuracy, especially for low-dimensional queries.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is often described through the amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration, or AT(N), cascade. However, most longitudinal models represent this cascade either as a fixed sequence of biomarkers or as a black-box forecasting task. This makes it difficult to determine when biologically guided biomarker relationships influence future regional pathology. In this study, we introduce Bayesian Networks with Latent Time Embedding (BN-LTE), a Bayesian structural framework for stage-aware modeling of AD progression. BN-LTE estimates disease pseudotime from baseline biomarker profiles and constrains directed dependencies according to biologically plausible AT(N) ordering. Posterior spline-varying structural equations are then used to link initial multimodal measurements with future annualized regional tau-PET change. Across repeated subject-disjoint evaluations using ADNI data, BN-LTE shows strong spatial reconstruction of tau progression compared with the included forecasting baselines. Beyond spatial reconstruction, BN-LTE recovers posterior stage-varying AT(N)-constrained effects and identifies a mid-pseudotime window of amyloid sensitivity. This window is supported by model-implied g-formula contrasts, root-adjusted AIPW, mechanism-sensitive ablations, and robustness analyses across spline and prior specifications. Overall, these findings position BN-LTE as a Bayesian structural framework for forecasting tau progression while examining stage-dependent AT(N)-cascade mechanisms in observational longitudinal neuroimaging data. Our code is available at https://github.com/danleneurocom/BN-LTE.

Learning Bayesian network (BN) structure from sparse discrete data is hard: when each instance records only a few variables, most variable pairs lack the joint observations needed for reliable scoring, and data-only methods recover little structure. Imperfect domain knowledge, expressible as a weighted directed knowledge graph (KG), is often available. KG-SoftMAP encodes such a KG as a finite-strength, confidence-weighted edge prior and maximizes a MAP objective that adds this logit-form prior to the BDeu score. With an informative but imperfect KG, KG-SoftMAP recovers partial directed structure even at observation rate rho=0.05, with directed F1 (DF1) of 0.19-0.32 across benchmarks. At higher observation rates within this sparse grid, DF1 reaches 0.44-0.66 at rho=0.20 and 0.46-0.64 at rho=0.40. Across the same three rates, KG-SoftMAP without the KG prior averages DF1 0.00, 0.19, and 0.21. Stress tests that corrupt, remove, or blur the KG signal, together with checks on LLM-extracted graphs beyond canonical benchmarks, show that recovery rises and falls with KG quality. On three real sparse educational datasets without ground-truth DAGs, we evaluate prediction, calibration, and KG-consistency. On Short Answer Feedback (SAF), KG-SoftMAP+VE reaches Fail-class F1 0.75 versus 0.78 for logistic regression while also providing an inspectable concept graph, calibrated Fail probabilities, and posterior queries from partially observed concept evidence. The remaining datasets sharpen the operating picture: weak heuristic KG signal leaves prediction unchanged, while an independent expert ontology moves the learned graph toward expert relatedness.

Large language models are rapidly becoming infrastructural components in high-stakes institutional settings, including public administration, legal reasoning, and healthcare, where opacity is not merely inconvenient but institutionally and legally untenable. Existing approaches to explainability are predominantly post-hoc, offering unstable, non-contestable accounts that have no formal relationship to the reasoning process that produced the output. We argue that the problem is not the absence of explanation but the absence of structured reasoning in the first place. This paper makes the case for a fundamentally different architecture, which we call the Glassbox Framework, in which Bayesian networks serve as transparent, ante-hoc mediation layers for generative models. Bayesian networks encode domain knowledge, causal assumptions, and probabilistic dependencies before inference occurs, enabling auditable reasoning traces, uncertainty quantification, and contestable outputs. We characterise the architecture of this framework and ground it in a benefit eligibility scenario, identifying the foundational challenges spanning semantic alignment, dynamic model construction, probabilistic grounding, and human governance that must be solved to realise it at scale. By shifting from post-hoc explanation to ante-hoc probabilistic mediation, this work outlines a principled path toward AI systems that are not only powerful but fundamentally accountable.

Data-driven causal relationship identification is pertinent to advancing understanding of complex systems both within and beyond science. Bayesian networks offer a probabilistic method for modelling generic causal relationships via directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, typical techniques for constructing Bayesian networks rely on optimization, which can be ill-suited for learning causal relationships because the underlying data may admit multiple chains of causation. More data-faithful representations of causal relationships would provide frameworks for constructing multiple causal maps that are consistent with the variability that is inherent in underlying data. Here, we show that entropy-based inference generates atlases of plausible causal relationships that are consistent with underlying data. On simulated noisy data of 2- and 20-node linear structural equation models, we sample a maximum-entropy ensemble of graphs that allow us to quantify the inherent structural ambiguity in underlying causal relationships. Our method shows that "optimized" DAGs can contain causal artifacts are not consistent across equivalently accurate topologies.

Textual event records, such as alarm logs, have become an increasingly common data source in engineering and manufacturing systems. Beyond identifying correlations or recurring patterns, engineers are often interested in understanding which types of events causally trigger or influence other events during system operation. Textual event descriptions may contain semantic clues about such causal relationships, and recent large language models (LLMs) provide a promising tool for extracting these signals. However, relying solely on LLM-encoded textual information is insufficient for accurate causal discovery, since semantic patterns do not directly reveal causal mechanisms and may confuse causation with correlation or frequent sequential patterns. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{LMT}, a Bayesian causal discovery framework for engineering event data that jointly leverages textual descriptions and timestamps. Specifically, LMT first uses LLMs to extract semantic causal signals from event descriptions and constructs a prior distribution over causal graphs among event types or event clusters. It then incorporates temporal evidence through a Poisson-process-based likelihood, allowing the LLM-informed prior to be refined by timestamp-based statistical evidence. By integrating the textual and temporal information, LMT produces a causal graph that is both interpretable and data-supported. Simulation studies show that the proposed framework is effective across different settings and is especially advantageous in small-sample alarm-event scenarios.

Metamodels for discrete-event simulations approximate the behavior of simulation models without running expensive simulations. Prior work introduced modular dynamic Bayesian networks (MDBNs) -- a class of metamodels that can estimate a range of probabilistic and causal queries (PCQs) using a single, trained model -- but the method was limited to Markovian systems. In this paper, we initiate an extension of MDBNs to non-Markovian queues by approximating non-exponential distributions using phase-type distributions. This approach raises novel challenges, including balancing metamodeling accuracy and tractability when choosing the number of phases, efficiently learning metamodel parameters, and choosing the sampling interval that is used to approximate a continuous-time simulation by a discrete-time MDBN. We provide preliminary solutions to these challenges, yielding the first causal metamodeling technique for non-Markovian systems. Experiments on a G/M/1 queue demonstrate that the MDBN can produce accurate answers to PCQs with orders-of-magnitude speedup of inference times relative to direct simulation.

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are of interest from an explainable AI viewpoint, offering transparent probabilistic models for decision support. Baymex is a recently introduced multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for learning discretized BNs, enabling experts to trade-off different objectives of interest, such as likelihood, model complexity, and prior beliefs. While Baymex has been shown to outperform state-of-the-art BN learning approaches, Baymex still 1) requires a lot of computation time and 2) has only been evaluated on synthetic data. To improve scalability, we introduce a parallelization strategy as well as a mechanism that enables adaptively steering optimization toward networks that overfit less. We furthermore reconfigure Baymex to train a BN classifier through multi-objective optimization of cross-entropy loss and the BIC complexity term so as to evaluate its performance on real-world clinical classification tasks. Besides observing speedups up to over 54 times on a 16-core CPU, comparisons against clinically familiar baselines (decision trees, logistic regression, naive Bayes, and random forests) on two open-source (RADCURE and SUPPORT) and one in-house dataset, show that Baymex obtains statistically similar or better predictive performance while producing compact, clinically inspectable BNs. Importantly, Baymex finds multiple plausible BN classifiers that contain predictors consistent with established clinical factors.

Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a protocol for observational causal discovery on continuous data that attaches to each candidate edge a discrete impossibility certificate: a RESOLVED code records the identifiability theorem under which the direction was committed, while an IMPOSSIBLE code records the failure mode together with the specific question a domain expert must answer to resolve it. The bivariate cascade is extended with five gated identifiability tiers LSNM, IGCI, Stein, MDL, and PEIT that abstain when their precondition test rejects. Two oracle primitives, the meta-hub query and the node-children query, jointly establish an upper bound of $1+K$ expert interactions sufficient to recover any DAG, where $K$ denotes the number of non-leaf vertices. Under an ideal-oracle assumption, the bound is met exactly on the asia, sachs, child, and alarm benchmarks.

A "path-based sensor" produces a single observation along a continuous path. For example, a boolean path-based sensor returns a single "1" if an event of interest is detected at any point along the path and a "0" otherwise. Notably, a "1" provides no direct information about where along the path the event(s) may have occurred. Previous work has demonstrated that observations from multiple path-based sensors can be fused to create a Bayesian belief map over the spatial locations of the underlying event or phenomenon. Moreover, path planning can employ Shannon information theory to accelerate the rate of convergence of the belief map. In this paper, we present a new method to update the belief map based on a path-based sensor observation, and then plan paths to increase information gain. In contrast to prior work that approximates the posterior by averaging over the alternative event histories, we introduce a Bayesian Network (BN) formulation that models the probabilistic relationships between the latent variables and path-based sensor measurements, enabling a more principled Bayesian belief update. We consider static hazard detection in a communication-denied environment as a representative problem setting. The event of a robot returning from its path corresponds to a path-based hazard sensor reading of "0" (hazard not detected), while a robot failing to return corresponds to a reading of "1" (hazard detected). We consider false positives and false negatives. We find that the new method leads to quicker convergence of the belief map than prior work in both single- and multi-robot cases.

A central challenge in large-scale decision-making under incomplete information is estimating reliable probabilities. Recent approaches use Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate explanatory factors and coarse-grained probability estimates, which are then refined by a Naïve Bayes model over factor combinations. However, sparse factor spaces often yield unknown'' predictions, while expanding factors increases noise and spurious correlations, weakening conditional independence and degrading reliability. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{Anchor}, an aggregated Bayesian inference framework over a hierarchical factor space. It constructs dense factor hierarchies through iterative generation and clustering, maps contexts via hierarchical retrieval and refinement, and augments Naïve Bayes with a Causal Bayesian Network to model latent factor dependencies. Experiments show that \textsc{Anchor} markedly reduces unknown'' predictions and produces more reliable probability estimates than direct LLM baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance while significantly reducing time and token overhead.

We introduce the Free Energy Manifold (FEM), a score-trained conditional energy model specialized for inference in hybrid Bayesian networks with discrete and continuous variables. FEM represents each conditional factor as an energy landscape over learned discrete-parent embeddings and continuous observations, enabling posterior evaluation, generative sampling, and compositional inference across multiple continuous leaves by energy addition under conditional independence. A central finding is the mode-bridge artifact: standard conditional energy models can create low-energy ridges between separated modes of the same class, producing overconfident posteriors at off-data interior points. We analyze this failure and propose valley regularization, an off-data calibration term that restores near-uniform posteriors in such regions while preserving in-data fit. Across synthetic multimodal hybrid-BN benchmarks, FEM substantially reduces KL divergence relative to classical baselines and a vanilla conditional EBM, including large gains at mode-bridge midpoint queries and in multi-leaf evidence composition. We also evaluate high-cardinality discrete-parent settings and a UCI Breast Cancer sanity check, showing that FEM is most useful when multimodal or compositional Bayesian-network inference is required, while discriminative classifiers remain preferable for closed-world classification tasks.

Polytrees are a subclass of Bayesian networks that seek to capture the conditional dependencies between a set of $n$ variables as a directed forest and are motivated by their more efficient inference and improved interpretability. Since the problem of learning the best polytree is NP-hard, we study which restrictions make it more tractable by considering for example in-degree bounds, properties of score functions measuring the quality of a polytree, and approximation algorithms. We devise an algorithm that finds the optimal polytree in time $O((2+ε)^n)$ for arbitrarily small $ε> 0$ and any constant in-degree bound $k$, improving over the fastest previously known algorithm of time complexity $O(3^n)$. We further give polynomial-time algorithms for finding a polytree whose score is within a factor of $k$ from the optimal one for arbitrary scores and a factor of $2$ for additive ones. Many of the results are complemented by (nearly) tight lower bounds for either the time complexity or the approximation factors.

Causal structure learning from observational data is central to many scientific and policy domains, but the time series setting common to many disciplines poses several challenges due to temporal dependence. In this paper we focus on score-based causal discovery for multivariate time series and introduce TS-BOSS, a time series extension of the recently proposed Best Order Score Search (BOSS) (Andrews et al. 2023). TS-BOSS performs a permutation-based search over dynamic Bayesian network structures while leveraging grow-shrink trees to cache intermediate score computations, preserving the scalability and strong empirical performance of BOSS in the static setting. We provide theoretical guarantees establishing the soundness of TS-BOSS under suitable assumptions, and we present an intermediate result that extends classical subgraph minimality results for permutation-based methods to the dynamic (time series) setting. Our experiments on synthetic data show that TS-BOSS is especially effective in high auto-correlation regimes, where it consistently achieves higher adjacency recall at comparable precision than standard constraint-based methods. Overall, TS-BOSS offers a high-performing, scalable approach for time series causal discovery and our results provide a principled bridge for extending sparsity-based, permutation-driven causal learning theory to dynamic settings.

In this work, we evaluate the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in building Bayesian Networks (BNs) by approximating domain expert priors. LLMs have demonstrated potential as factual knowledge bases; however, their capability to generate probabilistic knowledge about real-world events remains understudied. We explore utilizing the probabilistic knowledge inherent in LLMs to derive probability estimates for statements regarding events and their relationships within a BN. Using LLMs in this context allows for the parameterization of BNs, enabling probabilistic modeling within specific domains. Our experiments on eighty publicly available Bayesian Networks, from healthcare to finance, demonstrate that querying LLMs about the conditional probabilities of events provides meaningful results when compared to baselines, including random and uniform distributions, as well as approaches based on next-token generation probabilities. We explore how these LLM-derived distributions can serve as expert priors to refine distributions extracted from data, especially when data is scarce. Overall, this work introduces a promising strategy for automatically constructing Bayesian Networks by combining probabilistic knowledge extracted from LLMs with real-world data. Additionally, we establish the first comprehensive baseline for assessing LLM performance in extracting probabilistic knowledge.