Xgboost

Accurate prediction of equity returns remains a major challenge in computational finance due to the non-stationary, nonlinear, and low signal-to-noise ratio nature of financial time series. This paper proposes a hybrid two-stage architecture that combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) network with an XGBoost gradient-boosted regressor for multi-horizon stock return prediction across a diversified panel of 14 U.S. equities spanning six industry sectors. The LSTM component, comprising two stacked layers with 64 hidden units, processes 60-day sliding windows of five sequential market features to produce 64-dimensional temporal embeddings that encode learned sequential market dynamics. These embeddings are concatenated with 14 hand-crafted technical indicators to form a 78-dimensional hybrid feature vector, which is subsequently passed to an XGBoost regressor tuned via 3-fold cross-validation grid search. The framework is trained on a multi-stock pooled corpus using strict chronological splits and per-stock MinMaxScaling to prevent look-ahead bias, and evaluated across four prediction horizons of 30, 90, 252, and 365 trading days. Experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid model achieves a test RMSE of 0.0949 on the 30-day horizon, roughly one-third that of the standalone LSTM baseline, while marginally matching or surpassing the XGBoost-Only baseline across the majority of stocks. Directional accuracy rises with horizon length, reaching 97.6% at 365 days; we show, however, that this largely tracks the high base rate of positive long-horizon returns in the sample, and we therefore benchmark directional accuracy against a naive always-positive predictor and treat the above-base-rate gap at short horizons as the more informative signal. A composite investment scoring framework derived from multi-horizon predictions is further proposed to support portfolio ranking and decision support.

The digitalisation of electrical distribution networks has increased the exposure of power-grid infrastructure to cyber attacks. Existing intrusion detection systems (IDSs), however, often rely on computationally expensive deep learning models that are difficult to deploy at the edge. Periodic retraining also exposes these systems to machine unlearning attacks, where selective data removal can degrade detection performance. We propose a hybrid Spiking Neural Network (SNN) and XGBoost architecture that combines efficient temporal encoding with a lightweight classifier and provides structural resilience to such attacks. The SNN is trained once on clean data and used as a fixed feature extractor, while only the XGBoost classifier is retrained during model updates. Evaluated on two real-world public power-system datasets, the proposed method achieves 99.9% accuracy (F1-macro 0.999) on the Synchrophasor dataset and 95.0% accuracy (F1-macro 0.943) on the MSU/ORNL dataset, outperforming standalone baselines. Under selective label-flipping attacks, the hybrid model loses only 0.9% F1-macro at 10% poisoning and delays target-class collapse from 60% to 70% poisoning compared with raw models. These results demonstrate that neuromorphic temporal encoding can provide both accurate cyber-attack detection and improved resilience to data poisoning in cyber-physical systems.

In the one-time selling B2B context, the buying cycle may last months or even years. During the long process, targeting customers that have a high potential to make purchases and recommending personalized campaigns accordingly are important for effective marketing. For this goal, we study the following problems, B2B customer data aggregation, customer feature generation, and prediction of whether a B2B customer would show interest in making a purchase (i.e., prediction of conversion into sales funnel). We propose an algorithm to aggregate individual contacts to the B2B customer level based on multiple keys. For non-standardized keys such as company names, we propose a novel architecture to cluster them in a domain encompassing irregularities such as spelling mistakes and spelling variants. We then define and generate a set of features and apply the CatBoost model for customer conversion prediction. Our framework achieves 91% prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction results and analysis of the model, we then discuss personalized campaign recommendations to foster conversion.

Dakar's residential rental market remains poorly documented despite its economic and social importance: 54.4% of households are renters, compared to 23.3% nationally. This study develops a complete machine learning pipeline to predict residential rents in Dakar, from data collection to model interpretation. An original dataset of 1,507 rental listings was built through systematic web scraping and a documented cleaning pipeline, then enriched with four purpose-built features, including a luxury score and a keyword-based quality score. Five models were compared: linear regression, Random Forest (baseline), XGBoost, and LightGBM optimized through Bayesian optimization with Optuna, using leakage-free KFold target encoding for location. The optimized XGBoost model achieved the best performance with an $R^2$ of 0.847, an MAE of 210,902 XOF, and an RMSE of 324,195 XOF. Feature importance was assessed using native XGBoost gain and SHAP values, revealing a substantial difference in the ranking of location, which appears as a minor predictor by gain but as the second most influential variable by SHAP. This result carries methodological implications for hedonic studies using target-encoded categorical variables. This study provides an interpretable benchmark for Dakar's rental market and highlights several avenues for improvement, including the integration of geospatial features and conformal prediction.

Prediction error is widely used to evaluate nuisance-function estimators in causal inference, but its relationship with causal estimator performance may differ across performance measures. We studied this question in a partially linear model using Monte Carlo simulations. We compared ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized additive models (GAMs), XGBoost, and Double Machine Learning with XGBoost (DML-XGBoost), evaluating nuisance-function prediction error, bias, RMSE, and 95% confidence interval coverage. We also examined a simple joint-error measure based on the absolute cross-product of estimation errors from the exposure and outcome nuisance functions. Across the simulated settings, XGBoost had the lowest RMSE among the non-oracle methods, while DML-XGBoost generally provided better confidence interval coverage. Prediction error did not consistently track causal bias across methods and settings, and the method with the best point-estimation performance did not necessarily have the best confidence interval coverage. The joint-error measure was only weakly associated with causal bias and did not provide a useful standalone measure of causal performance. These results suggest that prediction error is useful for assessing nuisance-function estimation, but it should not be treated as a direct measure of the quality of the resulting causal estimator.

This paper presents a comparative study of two distinct approaches, XGBoost and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), for forecasting transmitted heat energy in District Heating Systems (DHS). The objective is to explore scenarios in which conventional ML algorithms demonstrate better performance over deep learning networks in time series forecasting and the associated benefits in terms of computational cost and environmental impact. The study focuses on a real-world DHS dataset. Through experimentation and analysis, it is demonstrated that XGBoost consistently outperforms LSTM in this specific forecasting task. The difference is explained by the error distribution illustrating that LSTM makes more significant errors in the intervals of less data availability. The reduced computational demands of conventional ML approaches not only result in cost savings but also minimize the carbon footprint associated with data analysis tasks in energy systems.

The rapid growth of social media has created vast amounts of political discourse, which provides valuable opportunities to analyze public opinions and identify different political perspectives. Sentiment Analysis (SA) is a core task in Natural Language Processing (NLP) that allows the computational study of attitudes and opinions in textual data, and has become increasingly important for understanding political discourse. In this work, we investigate multiclass sentiment analysis of political view- points on social media, that is to automatically discriminate multiple sentiment classes over political issues and figures. To solve this task we design and evaluate two machine-learning approaches based on XGBoost and BERT. We train and evaluate the models on a labeled dataset of political social media posts using standard classification metrics. The experimental results show that the XGBoost model reaches an F1-score of 0.2835 and the BERT- based model reaches an F1-score of 0.2806 on the test set. These results demonstrate the challenge of classifying complex and contextualized political discourse sentiment and provide a baseline for future research in multiclass political sentiment analysis.

Machine-learning intrusion-detection studies commonly emphasize predictive accuracy while treating explanation generation as a computationally free post-processing step. This study jointly evaluates predictive effectiveness, explanation cost, local explanation stability, and selective explanation for binary Internet of Things (IoT) intrusion detection. A leakage-safe CICIoT2023 corpus was constructed using exact 39-feature hashes, non-finite-value handling, exact-feature deduplication, conservative label-collision removal, and deterministic hash-level partitioning. Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and XGBoost were evaluated on natural and balanced test distributions. TreeSHAP cost was measured, stability was assessed under prediction-preserving perturbations, and validation-calibrated policies were used to allocate explanation workload. XGBoost provided the strongest overall predictive profile, while Random Forest produced the lowest false-positive rate. At 5,000 samples, TreeSHAP required 700.759 s for Random Forest and 1.471 s for XGBoost. Random Forest showed the strongest overall base-level explanation stability; XGBoost retained high rank and directional consistency but showed greater top-feature turnover and attribution-magnitude drift. On the balanced test, about 90% false-negative explanation coverage permitted 28-32% compute savings, while about 95% coverage permitted 15-23% savings. Savings were much smaller under the attack-heavy natural prevalence. These results show that operationally useful explainable IoT intrusion detection depends on predictive quality, explanation cost, local stability, workload prevalence, and selective invocation rather than detection accuracy alone.

Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available. This study quantifies the trade-off between predictive accuracy and input accessibility using two nationally representative U.S. residential-energy datasets: the survey-based Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) and the simulation-based ResStock dataset. Full-feature models were first used to establish dataset-specific performance benchmarks. For total-energy estimation, the models were subsequently restricted to ten low-burden variables obtainable from occupants, administrative records, or location-based weather data without an on-site energy audit. Among CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, and Neural Networks, CatBoost consistently achieved the highest predictive performance for the full-feature analysis, reaching R2 = 0.90 for ResStock and R2 = 0.73 for RECS. When the feature set was restricted to ten homeowner-accessible inputs to simulate realistic deployment conditions, model performance converged to R2 = 0.61 for RECS and R2 = 0.62 for ResStock, showing that algorithmic complexity cannot fully compensate for missing physical and behavioral information. However, for a more homogeneous ResStock cohort consisting of single-family detached, natural-gas-heated homes in Climate Zone 6A constructed between 2000 and 2010, a reduced-input model improved accuracy to R2 = 0.85, demonstrating the value of targeted modeling for homogeneous populations. The results indicate that tree-based ensemble models can serve as high-fidelity emulators of national-scale residential energy datasets. However, careful consideration of feature availability, dataset origin (empirical vs. synthetic), and applicable use cases are also important.

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), characterized by the gradual loss of kidney function, remains a significant public health challenge. Early detection is crucial for preventing severe complications and enhancing patient outcomes. In this study, Federated Learning (FL) with a VotingClassifier was used to predict CKD using a clinical dataset, where Random Forest, AdaBoost, and XGBoost were utilized to compare and identify the best-fitting model for the global server. Additionally, GridSearchCV was applied to optimize the models' performance on the client's side. To enhance model transparency and trustworthiness, explainable AI (XAI) techniques were incorporated to interpret the prediction mechanisms. The global model's average accuracy was 99%, highlighting the potential of interpretable FL models in supporting early CKD diagnosis and advancing data-driven healthcare solutions.

As communication networks adopt virtualized and disaggregated architectures, achieving energy efficiency has become increasingly important for both economic and environmental reasons. Traditional methods for power modeling are inadequate in these dynamic software-defined environments due to their inability to model complex and nonlinear factors affecting energy use. We investigate the use of feature extraction and regressor-based machine learning methods for predicting power consumption in virtualized open radio access networks (O-RANs), utilizing datasets from a hardware-instrumented testbed. We test three variants of deep neural networks (DNNs), namely, a standard DNN, a regularized DNN, and a hybrid model combining DNN-based feature extraction with an XGBoost regressor. We evaluate the performance of these models for various system parameters such as transmission gain, modulation/coding schemes, and airtime. We show that the hybrid model consistently outperformed others, achieving a mean relative error below 0.5%. Results suggest hybrid models like DNN-XGBoost offer superior accuracy and could be integrated into O-RAN management tools to enable more energy-efficient network orchestration in future networks.

Multiclass classification is a fundamental problem across a wide range of domains. It is still challenging due to possession of high inter-class similarity, class imbalance datasets, and variability in data distributions. Rule-based classifiers such as XGBoost often achieve stronger performance on structured features, but they are limited in capturing smooth functional relationships among variables. Similarly, neural network models can represent complex nonlinear interactions but frequently suffer from overfitting and generalization issues. To address these limitations, we propose LFS-FRAME, a Leakage-Free Stacked ensemble framework that integrates functional learning using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) and rule-based learning via XGBoost for robust multiclass classification. The proposed framework constructs unbiased meta-features by employing a strict out-of-fold stacking strategy to ensure complete isolation between training and validation data hence preventing performance leakage. By learning over probabilistic outputs from heterogeneous base learners, the meta-classifier effectively exploits both global functional patterns and sharp decision boundaries present in the complex data. Experimental evaluations on multi-class datasets demonstrate that LFS-FRAME improves performance metrics, and overall accuracy is 89.85% in identifying major families and 81.74% in identifying sub-families relative to strong single-model baselines. These results highlight the effectiveness of leakage-free functional and rule-based stacking for reliable and generalizable multiclass classification.

Explainable AI (XAI) for time series has seen significant algorithmic growth, but its utility in providing measurable performance gains for downstream tasks remains under-explored. This paper bridges this gap by introducing drXAI, a novel methodology that repurposes XAI attribution methods for effective data reduction in Time Series Classification (TSC). The core challenge in modern TSC is scalability; state-of-the-art models, such as Transformers, exhibit quadratic complexity relative to sequence length and linear complexity relative to the number of channels. This renders them computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. drXAI addresses this by using a fast, GPU-accelerated classifier (Hydra) to generate local attributions. We aggregate these into global feature importance scores and employ an automated elbow-cut heuristic to select the most salient features without requiring manual thresholds. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world univariate and multivariate datasets. On synthetic benchmarks, drXAI successfully recovers ground-truth features where traditional baselines fail. On real-world data, drXAI achieves between 80% and 90% data reduction while maintaining classification accuracy comparable to models trained on the full dataset. Most importantly, we show that drXAI allows resource-intensive models like ConvTran to scale to datasets that were previously inaccessible due to memory constraints. Our results show the benefits of using XAI not just for interpretability, but as a robust tool for feature selection and scalability in time series analysis. All our code and data are openly available.

Accurate poverty mapping using satellite imagery is often hindered by (i) noisy and sparse survey-derived supervision, (ii) image quality issues such as cloud cover and image corruption, and (iii) lack of explicit spatial structure in image-only models. Building on the KidSat framework, we develop an enhanced pipeline that improves predictive accuracy via refined data preprocessing, systematic image quality assessment, and mathematically defined geographic encoding. First, we refine the fine-tuning target matrix by resolving high-cardinality sparsity and reducing one-hot dimensionality from 103 to 51 via DHS re-aggregation. Second, we introduce a simple two-stage quality-screening procedure to filter heavily clouded or corrupted observations. Third, we fuse DINOv2 visual embeddings with Spherical Harmonics (SH) location features. Across extensive experiments, these changes reduce MAE from 0.2167 to 0.1759, corresponding to an 18.83% relative reduction on the cluster-level severe-deprivation proportion scale. When extended from 16 to 33 African countries, the best-performing configuration achieves an overall MAE of 0.1658. We find that SH features consistently improve performance over the image-only backbone, whereas higher-capacity coordinate Multi Layer Perception augmentation (SH+SIREN) can underperform without carefully designed objectives. Finally, gradient-boosted tree heads (XGBoost/LightGBM) most effectively exploit nonlinear interactions in the fused visual-geographic representation. These findings provide a scalable and principled recipe for improving satellite-based socioeconomic predictions using only publicly accessible data.

A total of seven categorical encoding methods were tested on the IEEE-CIS fraud benchmark dataset (590,540 records, 3.5% positives, 8 high-cardinality columns). The encoders were evaluated using a stratified 5-fold cross-validation (CV) with three repetitions. Five of the encoders had identical frozen LightGBM learners in the downstream phase, allowing for controlled comparisons of their performance to each other. CatBoost and TabNet were included as comparisons across paradigms using different learners. The entity embeddings produced the highest AUC-ROC (0.9612), with a statistically significant tie with that of CatBoost (0.9602) and statistically superior to tier group encoding (0.9548), whereas target encoding was only 0.0023 worse than tier group encoding and the auditor-friendly tier boundaries were maintained. Off-the-shelf TabNet did not outperform tree-based pipelines and collapsed under data scarcity. On AUC-PR, CatBoost leads (0.822 vs. 0.793); no encoder dominated both metrics. Per-column analysis confirmed the embedding advantage arises from joint multi-column representation.

Cardiac discharge phenotyping informs post-discharge treatment and follow-up, but real-world records are often incomplete and class-imbalanced, increasing the risk of missed high-risk phenotypes. We propose CW-B, a clinical risk-aligned class-weighted XGBoost pipeline for five-class cardiac discharge phenotyping under real-world class imbalance and missingness. CW-B combines fold-specific class-balanced instance weighting, missingness-indicator augmentation, and classwise error auditing to improve recognition of clinically prioritized phenotypes while preserving interpretable and auditable decision logic. In five-fold stratified cross-validation, CW-B achieves the best Accuracy, Macro-F1, Balanced Accuracy, and Prioritized F1 among tree-based, ensemble, and neural baselines. Overall, CW-B provides a practical and deployment-oriented approach for more reliable cardiac discharge phenotyping in real-world clinical settings.

Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), exemplified by LightGBM, spend a dominant fraction of training time -- typically 65-70% -- constructing per-feature histograms. Existing approaches such as random feature subsampling (feature_fraction) discard features without regard for their predictive utility. We propose EMA-based Feature Screening (EMA-FS), an algorithm-level optimization that maintains an exponential moving average (EMA) of per-feature split gains across boosting iterations and, after a short warmup, restricts histogram construction to the top-K features ranked by historical gain. Unlike random subsampling, EMA-FS is informed: it retains high-gain features while screening out low-gain ones. Operating at the per-tree level, it preserves full compatibility with LightGBM's histogram subtraction trick, requiring no changes to core routines. We evaluate EMA-FS on datasets spanning financial fraud detection, advertising click-through prediction, industrial quality control, and synthetic benchmarks, with feature dimensionalities from 29 to 968. On dense, moderate-to-high-dimensional data it achieves significant speedups: 2.61x on a 500-feature synthetic benchmark and 1.45x on the 432-feature IEEE-CIS Fraud dataset at 30% retention. At 70% retention it improves AUC by 0.11 points while delivering a 1.34x speedup. On extremely sparse data (Bosch, >90% missing) it yields no speedup, as LightGBM's sparse bin optimization already bypasses empty values. We further introduce Stochastic EMA-FS (S-EMA-FS), which replaces deterministic top-K selection with gain-weighted random sampling controlled by a concentration parameter beta, unifying deterministic EMA-FS (beta -> infinity) and random subsampling (beta = 0) in one framework. Both are implemented in ~120 lines of C++ across all six LightGBM tree learners and are fully backward-compatible.

Accurate short-term electricity demand forecasting is critical for reliable power system operation, energy market planning, and infrastructure optimization. This paper presents a hybrid framework combining a Transformer encoder for temporal feature extraction with gradient-boosted decision trees (XGBoost) for daily electricity demand forecasting across New England. The framework integrates meteorological observations from six cities spanning all six New England states, calendar and holiday effects, autoregressive demand lags, and COVID-19 epidemiological variables. Hyperparameter optimization uses Optuna with a multivariate Tree-structured Parzen Estimator over 500 trials, with a leakage-free 70/15/15 chronological train-validation-test split. The hybrid model achieves a test RMSE of 8,876 MWh, MAPE of 2.05%, and R-squared of 0.906. A tabular-only XGBoost baseline achieves RMSE of 9,304 MWh, MAPE of 2.21%, and R-squared of 0.896. A Diebold-Mariano test (Harvey-Leybourne-Newbold correction) confirms the 427.7 MWh difference is statistically indistinguishable from noise (DM = -1.126, p = 0.262). An ablation study reveals COVID-19 features improved training accuracy but had asymmetric test effects: removal degraded hybrid RMSE by 3.2% while marginally improving XGBoost-only by 1.2%. A SHAP temporal analysis shows 5 of 8 COVID features rank higher on the post-acute test set than during pandemic-active training, indicating the model over-applies learned pandemic patterns. These findings establish temporal validity decay as a central mechanism: behavioral disruptions drove a strong COVID-demand signal during 2020-2021, but adaptation was complete by mid-2022, leaving epidemiological features as noise amplifying overfitting to stale pandemic patterns.

Machine Unlearning (MU) has emerged as an important technique for removing specific data points from trained models without requiring full retraining. However, most existing MU research focuses on deep learning and image data, leaving a gap in the domain of network intrusion detection, which relies heavily on tabular data. This work introduces XGBoost-Forget, an unlearning approach for the XGBoost model, to address this gap. The approach is evaluated on two tabular Network Intrusion (NI) datasets, IoT-23 and GeNIS, using multiple metrics to assess model performance, unlearning efficiency, and forgetting quality. The results show that XGBoost-Forget maintains predictive performance close to the original model while providing significantly faster unlearning, demonstrating its potential for MU in tabular NI settings.

In recent years, electronic (E) commerce services have rapidly increased in the daily lives of people, which helpsthem to purchase products online. However, retail platforms have struggled to understand customer behavior and make it difficult to predict their future purchases. To overcome these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid Retail Deep NeuralNetwork (Ret-DNN) with an Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost) model for capturing temporal features and tabular dynamics of retail data. First, data were sourced from a UnitedKingdom (UK)-based online retailer that contains transactions with almost 500,000 records. Then, the collected data were pre-processed using a series of techniques, such as data cleaning, outlier handling, temporal feature extraction, feature encoding, and z-score normalization, to ensure that the data were ready for model training and testing. Subsequently, the preprocessed data were fed into the Ret-DNN model, which acts as a feature extractor to understand the complete context of customer transactions. Further, the extracted data were fed as input into the XGBoost model, which predicted the final output as the purchase probability of customers. Finally, the proposed Ret-DNN XGBoost model achieved better results by attaining aMean Absolute Error (MAE) 0.2193 when compared to the existing Ret-DNN model. Keywords: Customer behavior forecasting, extreme gradientboosting, electronic commerce, predictive analytic, retail deepneural networks.

Sierra Leone's agriculture operates with almost no data-driven decision support, and no published machine learning study has examined the country's crop yields. We ask whether rice yield can be forecast from data Sierra Leone currently has. Using 25 years of FAOSTAT production data (2000-2024) for nine major crops, we train XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest under a strict anti-leakage protocol with expanding-window walk-forward evaluation across seven held-out years, benchmarked against naive persistence. No model trained on crop statistics alone outperforms persistence. Augmenting with free satellite climate data (CHIRPS rainfall, NASA POWER temperature) reverses this result: a climate-only XGBoost reduces forecast error by one third (RMSE 284 vs 428 kg/ha), a gain that holds for a linear model and is robust to excluding the anomalous 2018 season. Early-season (May-June) rainfall is the dominant predictor, implying seasonal yield risk is observable months before harvest. No model anticipated the 2018 collapse, whose origins were institutional rather than climatic. We translate the findings into policy recommendations for Sierra Leone's Feed Salone Strategy, with a fully open-source pipeline.

We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for market participants to support operational planning and risk management, yet remains challenging due to strong volatility, nonlinear dynamics, and frequent extreme price spikes. These challenges are particularly pronounced in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), where high renewable penetration further increases uncertainty. This paper investigates week-ahead electricity price forecasting and proposes a hybrid KAN+XGBoost framework that integrates Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) with tree-based learning. The proposed approach combines the global nonlinear representation capability of KAN with the local robustness of XGBoost to capture both long-term dependencies and short-term price fluctuations. Experiments are conducted on real-world NEM data using an expanding window evaluation strategy. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms benchmark methods, including SARIMAX, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), standalone KAN, and XGBoost, reducing MAE by approximately 12% compared to XGBoost and by over 50% compared to a naive baseline. The results suggest that hybrid learning strategies provide an effective and robust solution for electricity price forecasting in highly dynamic electricity markets.

This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.

A fraud scorer needs to answer in under 2 ms. The best tabular foundation models (TFMs) take 151-1,275 ms on GPU. We close this gap by distilling the TFM offline into an XGBoost or CatBoost student that runs natively on CPU. The central obstacle is specific to in-context learning (ICL) teachers: they leak labels when scoring their own training set, so the soft targets collapse to near-one-hot vectors with no inter-class structure left to distill. Stratified out-of-fold (OOF) teacher labeling prevents this. Across 153 classification datasets drawn from TALENT, OpenML-CC18, TabZilla, and TabArena, distilling TabICLv2 into XGBoost gives 0.882 macro-mean AUC (96.5% of teacher AUC) at 1.9 ms on CPU, a 38x to 860x speedup across teacher-student pairs with a statistically significant edge over a tuned CatBoost baseline (Wilcoxon p = 0.0008; 51% win rate). Four further findings: teacher rank transfers exactly to student rank; gains concentrate on low-dimensional data (< 21 features: +0.011 over CatBoost vs. >21 features: +0.001); multi-teacher averaging helps MLP students (+0.006, p = 0.003) but adds less than 0.001 for tree students; and on high-dimensional tasks where the teacher itself trails CatBoost, distillation makes things worse rather than better. The full pipeline is open-sourced as part of the TabTune library.

Telecommunication fraud is an acute problem that leads to substantial material losses and compromises the reliability of telecom systems worldwide. Only effective and efficient detection mechanisms can help to deal with these threats, though there are certain shifts in the approaches to fraud detection. This paper evaluates the performance of AI-driven models for fraud detection in telecommunication networks using Call Detail Record (CDR) datasets. This study focuses on fraud detection in telecom networks using the Telecom CDR dataset, which contains 101,174 customer records with 17 attributes, including 8,830 fraud cases. In feature preprocessing, missing values were dealt with, followed by data scaling using Min-Max scaling and data balancing using the SMOTE technique. The dataset was trained for predictive analysis using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost models. F1-score, ROC AUC, recall, accuracy, time, and precision were used as indicators with which to compare performance of the two models. RF recorded a high level of accuracy at 99.9% while XGBoost at 99.7%. Findings show that the suggested framework successfully detects fraud with few misclassifications. Several machine learning models were evaluated and contrasted, such as RF, XGBoost, DBSCAN, RoBERTa, and K-means. Among all the models, RF was seen to give the highest performance with an accuracy of 99.9% and precision of 99.9%, recall of 99.9% and F1-score of 99.9%, XGBoost, GNN and BERT. The findings emphasize RF as the most effective model for detecting fraudulent activities in telecom networks, ensuring robust and reliable prevention of fraud.

Masked Diffusion Language Models MDLMs replace autoregressive generation with iterative demasking and their privacy properties are largely unstudied. We study membership inference attacks MIA on fine tuned MDLMs and show they are significantly more vulnerable than current grey box baselines suggest. We extract a 46 dimensional feature vector from the models reconstruction loss at four masking ratios and train XGBoost and MLP classifiers on top. On the MIMIR benchmark across six text domains XGBoost achieves mean AUC 0.878 peaking at 0.930 on Pile CC and beats the SAMA grey box baseline by 0.062 AUC on average. A leave one signal out ablation shows that the ELBO trajectory alone drives most of this with a mean drop of 0.130 when removed while attention features add almost nothing below 0.003. We also design a shadow model transfer attack where K equals 3 surrogate MDLMs trained on data from unrelated domains generate classifier labels with no access to the target domain. This achieves 0.858 mean AUC within 0.020 of the white box oracle and establishes shadow model transfer as a practical and near equally effective attack path.

During thDuring the last few years, the term Mechanistic Interpretability, a specific area, under the umbrella of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), has been introduced, to explain the decisions made by complex machine learning (ML) models in critical systems like UAV intrusion detection systems (UAVIDS). In this paper, we apply best-practices for data pre-processing and examine a wide range of tree-ensembles, deep neural networks, hybrid stacking models and the latest ensemble neural networks to detect intrusions in UAV, with stratified 10-fold cross validation. With our top-performing model, XGBoost, we proceed to Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP), to analyze the global and local feature importances and understand which features, each attack targets, to mimic normal traffic and where the misclassifications occur. Furthermore a distribution analysis follows, by visually comparing violin plots and the curves of kernel density estimations. With the Westfall-Young permutation test for multiple comparisons, the Bandwidth optimization of the KDEs and the selection of Jensen-Shannon Distance for the test, we discover the true causes of false predictions, observed in Wormhole and Blackhole attacks in UAVIDS-2025. The findings provide robust, reliable and explainable models for UAV intrusion detection, along with statistical insights, which capture and clarify the masked nature of the attacks, regarding the challenge of Density Support Intersection, between these attacks, in this dataset.

Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.

The exponential expansion of digital commerce in Indonesia has significantly shifted consumer interactions toward video-centric social networks, particularly YouTube. Consequently, the sheer volume of unstructured, multi-contextual comments poses a tremendous challenge for manual sentiment tracking. This study investigates and constructs a predictive model for customer satisfaction leveraging the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) architecture coupled with Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectorization. By utilizing a secondary dataset of YouTube comments retrieved from e-commerce review videos, the raw text underwent rigorous preprocessing to generate normalized numerical features. The experimental results demonstrate that the PyCaret-optimized machine learning framework delivers superior classification resilience. Beyond standard performance metrics, lexical evaluations and feature-importance mapping uncover a notable phenomenon: e-commerce discourse is heavily infiltrated by socio-political terminologies, which ultimately influence the polarity of audience satisfaction.

The widespread adoption of machine learning in critical applications demands techniques to mitigate high-consequence errors. Our method utilizes a dual-classifier GBDT pipeline to distinguish routine human-like errors from high-risk non-human misclassifications. Evaluated across three domains, animal breed classification, skin lesion diagnosis (ISIC 2018), and prostate histopathology (SICAPv2), our framework demonstrates robust safety improvements. To address real-world deployment concerns, our results confirm the pipeline introduces negligible inference latency (1.60% overhead for the animal dataset, 1.84% for ISIC, and 1.70% for SICAPv2) while outperforming traditional Maximum Class Probability (MCP) baselines in correction precision. Our conservative correction strategy successfully reduced dangerous non-human errors by 34.1% in ISIC and 12.57% in SICAPv2, improving super-class diagnostic safety to 90.41% and 92.13% respectively. This proves that safety-critical reliability can be substantially enhanced post-hoc without expensive model retraining. keywords: Error Analysis, Post-hoc Correction, Trustworthy AI.

Falls among older adults are a significant public health concern, leading to severe injuries, loss of independence, and increased healthcare costs. This study evaluates the effectiveness of various models, including a Geometric approach, XGBoost, SVM, and several deep learning architectures, in classifying walker usage, standing vs. sitting, and posture for smart walkers used. Geometric and XGBoost were the top performers. XGBoost achieved near-perfect training accuracy in binary classification tasks, with 99.84% for walker choice and 99.69% for standing vs. sitting. For posture classification, Geometric approach attained 89.9% accuracy for 8 postures, and XGBoost obtained 99.24% during training for 17 postures. Deep learning models such as the 4-layer CNN and Encoder-Decoder CNN also demonstrated strong performance in binary classification, with accuracies above 98%. This study underscores the potential of machine learning to enhance human-robot interaction in smart walkers, particularly for fall prevention.

Grading knee osteoarthritis (KOA) on plain radiographs is poorly reproducible across readers. A single-grade disagreement on the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scale can alter surgical management or redirect a patient from conservative therapy to intra-articular injection. Meanwhile, deep learning models that outperform human readers often offer no explanation for their decisions. We present Knee-xRAI, a pipeline that decomposes the grading process by mimicking clinical radiological workflows. It independently measures joint space narrowing (JSN), osteophytes, and subchondral sclerosis, then combines these findings into an explainable KL grade. Specifically, a U-Net++ architecture quantifies JSN via contour segmentation, an SE-ResNet-50 multi-task network grades osteophytes per anatomical site on the OARSI scale, and a hybrid texture-CNN detects binary sclerosis. This pipeline yields a 50-dimensional feature vector evaluated via an XGBoost-SHAP classifier (Path A, audit) and a ConvNeXt hybrid predictor (Path B, deployed). On 8,260 OAI-derived radiographs, the JSN module achieved a Dice score of 0.8909 and an mJSW ICC of 0.8674. Path A reached a QWK of 0.6294 and an AUC of 0.8046, confirming the structured feature vector carries substantial diagnostic signal. Path B achieved a QWK of 0.8436 and an AUC of 0.9017. SHAP analysis identifies JSN as the dominant feature, with osteophytes adding a consistent increment and sclerosis contributing marginally. Removing JSN evidence collapses KL3-KL4 recall while early grades remain intact, aligning with the KL diagnostic criteria. Knee-xRAI grounds every prediction in an auditable chain of measured radiographic findings, providing clinical transparency at the point of care.