Causal Inference

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 62% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. EviDAG: Auditable Causal DAG Authoring with Biomedical Literature

    Jul 23, 2026Yi-han Sheu, Michael R. Steigman, Yu Zhou +3Data ProvenanceEvidence-Grounded Reasoning

    Massachusetts General Hospital, USA · Harvard University, USA · Northeastern University, USA

  2. Automated Synthesis and Adversarial Validation of Executable Causal Research Pipelines

    Jul 23, 2026Irena Girshovitz, Dan Zeltzer, Ran Gilad-BachrachAI-Assisted Scientific ResearchScientific Code Generation

    School of Biomedical Engineering Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv, Israel · School of Public Health University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA, USA

  3. Equilibrium Causal Digital Twins: Validation, Transport, and Identification Limits

    Jul 23, 2026Faraz Dadgostari, Neda NazemiCounterfactual EvaluationStructural Causal Models

    Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Montana State University · Gianforte School of Computing, Montana State University

  4. Probabilistic Residual Learning for Online Recommendations

    Jul 23, 2026Wenyuan Wang, Yusong Zhao, Zihao Xu +11Residual LearningRecommender Systems

    Rutgers University · Piscataway, New Jersey, United States · Meta +4

  5. Equilibrium Causal Games: Separation, Identification, and the Identifiability of Cyclic Latent States

    Jul 21, 2026Faraz Dadgostari, Neda NazemiCausal Representation LearningCausal Identifiability

    Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Montana State University · Gianforte School of Computing, Montana State University

  6. Vector Search As Nearest Neighbor Matching: RAG-based Policy Learning in Causal Inference

    Jul 20, 2026Masahiro Kato, Taka KatoRetrieval-Augmented GenerationCausal Inference

    ∗The University of Tokyo. · †NP-hard Inc.

  7. Scalable Causal Imitation Learning

    Jul 18, 2026Eylam Tagor, Mingxuan Li, Elias BareinboimReinforcement LearningImitation Learning

    Department of Computer Science, Columbia University

  8. Causal Inference for Sequential Settings under Interference and Latent Confounding

    Jul 16, 2026Phevos Paschalidis, Constantinos Daskalakis, Devavrat ShahCausal Effect EstimationIsing Model

    EECS, LIDS, CSAIL · MIT · EECS, CSAIL +1

  9. Solution of the Hempel's statistical ambiguity problem and Causal AI

    Jul 14, 2026Evgenii VityaevCausal InferenceCausal Explanation

    Sobolev Institute of Mathematics of the SB RAS, Koptuga 4, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia.

  10. Demonstration of the common dual-channel feature decoupling characteristic of front-door mediation causal inference methods in whole-slice image classification

    Jul 14, 2026Zhirui Zhang, Tianhang Nan, Yong Ding +3Representation DisentanglementHistopathology Image Classification

    College of Medicine and Biological Information Engineering, Northeastern University, China

  11. Workload-Preserving Differentially Private Synthetic Data for Causal Inference via Maximum-Entropy Calibration

    Jul 9, 2026Amir Asiaee, Kaveh AryanCausal Effect EstimationSynthetic Data Generation

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA · Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK

  12. Causal Optimizer Interaction Calculus: Hidden Geometric Relaxation and Identifiable Interventions

    Jul 8, 2026Zavier LiCausal Inference

    Xidian University Xi’an, China

  13. CanniUplift: A Holistic Framework for Mitigating Seller and Incentive Cannibalization in E-commerce Uplift Modeling

    Jul 6, 2026Zuwang He, Shihao Shu, Yuli Qu +8Causal Effect EstimationE-Commerce

    Taobao & Tmall Group of Alibaba Beijing, China · Taobao & Tmall Group of Alibaba Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

  14. Causal-RetiGraph: Cross-Cohort Retinal Support and Same-Subject Pathway Analysis for Diabetic Retinopathy

    Jul 6, 2026Inam Ullah, Imran Razzak, Shoaib JameelCausal Mediation AnalysisDiabetic Retinopathy Grading

    University of Southampton Southampton, United Kingdom · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence United Arab Emirates

  15. Geometric Causal Models

    Jul 6, 2026Eli N. Weinstein, David M. BleiCausal Effect EstimationCausal Identifiability

    Department of Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, DK. · Departments of Statistics and Computer Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.

  16. Fixed-Confidence Best-Arm Identification for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Jul 5, 2026Harsh Shrivastava, Yuta Kawakami, Junpei Komiyama +1Multi-Armed BanditsCausal Effect Estimation

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), Abu Dhabi, UAE · RIKEN AIP, Tokyo, Japan

  17. Significance-First Splitting: Aligning Treatment Heterogeneity Detection with Honest Estimation

    Jul 4, 2026Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Weng Man Chiang, Karthik NageshCausal Effect EstimationConfidence Region Estimation

    TripAdvisor, UK

  18. Optimizing Large Language Models for Causality Assessment in Pharmacovigilance: Developing a Performance Metric as Objective for Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization

    Jul 4, 2026Nicole Sonne Heckmann, Arnault-Quentin Vermillet, Søren Norlin Mølgaard +4Bayesian OptimizationLarge Language Model-Guided Optimization

    Department of Drug Design and Pharmacology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. · Safety Operations, Novo Nordisk, Søborg, Denmark. · Clinical Development Centre Denmark, Novo Nordisk, Søborg, Denmark. +1

  19. CaSPECT: Discovering Causally Homogeneous Subgroups via Directed Spectral Clustering

    Jul 3, 2026Arghya Pratihar, Shinjon Chakraborty, Swagatam DasCausal Effect EstimationCausal Structure Learning

    1*Electronics and Communication Sciences Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, India. · 2Indian Statistical Institute, India.

  20. Hierarchical Clustering As a Novel Solution to the Notorious Multicollinearity Problem in Observational Causal Inference

    Jun 30, 2026Yufei Wu, Zhiying Gu, Alex Deng +2Causal IdentifiabilityCausal Inference

    Airbnb, Inc. San Francisco, California, USA

  21. Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence

    Jun 29, 2026Andreas Koukorinis, Ricardo SilvaCausal Effect EstimationConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University College London · Department of Statistical Science University College London

  22. Non-parametric recovery of causal diffusion mechanisms from steady-state observations

    Jun 29, 2026Richard Schwank, Mathias DrtonStochastic Differential EquationsCausal Identifiability

    School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich · 2Munich Center for Machine Learning

  23. Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees

    Jun 29, 2026Ryohei Oura, Georgios Fainekos, Hideki Okamoto +1Reachability AnalysisMarkov Decision Processes

    Toyota Research Institute of North America, Toyota Motor North America · Frontier Research Center, Toyota Motor Corporation

  24. Lifted Causal Inference

    Jun 26, 2026Malte Luttermann, Tanya Braun, Ralf Möller +1Causal Effect EstimationEfficient Inference

    Institute for Humanities-Centered Artificial Intelligence, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany. · German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Lübeck, Germany. · Data Science Group, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.

  25. The Curse of Multiple Mediators: Hidden Interaction Effects in Activation Patching

    Jun 25, 2026Sankaran Vaidyanathan, David Arbour, Aaron Mueller +2Causal Effect EstimationCausal Attribution

    University of Massachusetts Amherst · Adobe Research · Boston University

  26. Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network with Inverse Propensity Score under Unobserved Confounding

    Jun 25, 2026Haoran Zhang, Chuanpu Li, Yuxin Fu +4Inverse Probability WeightingCausal Effect Estimation

    Center for Applied Statistics and School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China · Alibaba Group, Beijing, China

  27. A Causal Foundation Model for Structure and Outcome Prediction

    Jun 25, 2026Max Zhu, Martino Mansoldo, Ching-Hao Wang +1Causal Foundation ModelsCausal Structure Learning

    University of Cambridge, United Kingdom · GSK.ai.

  28. Infinitesimal Causality

    Jun 23, 2026Sridhar MahadevanStructural Causal ModelsCausal Inference

    Adobe Research and University of Massachusetts, Amherst

  29. RetiSEM: Generalising Causal Models for Fragmented Biomedical Data

    Jun 23, 2026Inam Ullah, Imran Razzak, Shoaib JameelLatent Variable ModelsStructural Causal Models

    University of Southampton, Southampton, SO18 1PB, Hampshir, United Kingdom · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, United Arab Emirates

  30. An Introduction to Causal Reinforcement Learning

    Jun 23, 2026Elias Bareinboim, Junzhe Zhang, Sanghack LeeReinforcement LearningCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, USA · Graduate School of Data Science Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea

  31. GRACE: Gated Refinement for Accurate Causal Edge Discovery in High-Dimensional Time Series

    Jun 22, 2026Mohammad Fesanghary, Abhinav HavaldarTime-Series Causal DiscoveryCausal Discovery

  32. One Ruler: A Same-Hands Re-Evaluation of Bivariate Causal Direction on Tuebingen, with a Parameter-Free Compression Baseline

    Jun 22, 2026Wietse StienstraCausal DiscoveryBenchmark Validity

    State of the Art — Compression Lab

  33. Statistical Inference for Misspecified Contextual Bandits

    Jun 21, 2026Yongyi Guo, Ziping XuInverse Probability WeightingAdaptive Inference

    Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin–Madison · School of Data Science and Society, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  34. A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

    Jun 21, 2026Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang +4Causal Effect EstimationCausal Discovery

    School of Computer Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China · School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 +1

  35. Fed-CausalDiff: Decoupled Synchronization for Federated Do-Simulation and Policy Evaluation

    Jun 21, 2026Pengfei Li, Mohammad KhalilPolicy EvaluationCausal Inference

    Centre for the Science of Learning & Technology (SLATE), University of Bergen Bergen, Norway

  36. Causal Gaussian Processes for Robust Treatment Effect Evaluation with Unobserved Confounding

    Jun 20, 2026Junzhe Zhang, Jingyuan Chen, Elias BareinboimCausal Effect EstimationPolicy Evaluation

    Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Syracuse University · Department of Computer Science, Columbia University

  37. Causal Variational Deep Embedding: A Family of Interventional Generators for Confounded Images

    Jun 19, 2026Jingyuan Chen, Kangrui Ruan, Junzhe ZhangVariational AutoencodersStructural Causal Models

    Department of EECS Syracuse University · AWS AI Lab

  38. Root Cause Analysis with Latent Confounders using Partial Ancestral Graphs

    Jun 18, 2026Henrique O. Caetano, Rafael Arone, Carlos Dias MacielPartial IdentificationCausal Inference

    Signal Processing Laboratory, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil · Guaratinguetá School of Engineering, São Paulo State University, Guaratinguetá, Brazil

  39. Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes

    Jun 17, 2026Yiyan Huang, Cheuk Hang Leung, Qi Wu +1Offline RLWasserstein Barycenters

    School of Statistics and Data Science & Institute of Big Data Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China

  40. Identifying Structural Biases from Causal Mechanism Shifts

    Jun 17, 2026Praharsh Nanavati, Jilles Vreeken, David KaltenpothStructural Causal ModelsCausal Discovery

    CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security

  41. Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders

    Jun 16, 2026Yordan P. Raykov, Hengrui Luo, Justin D. Strait +1Causal Effect EstimationLatent Variable Models

    School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK · Department of Statistics, Rice University, USA · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA +1

  42. Fast Nonparametric Conditional Independence Testing via Two-Stage Regression

    Jun 16, 2026Eric V. StroblCausal DiscoveryCausal Structure Learning

    Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA

  43. Statistical Foundations of LLM-based A/B Testing: A Surrogacy Framework for Human Causal Inference

    Jun 15, 2026Joel Persson, Mårten Schultzberg, Sebastian AnkargrenSurrogate ModelingA/b Testing

    Spotify USA, Inc. New York, NY, USA · Spotify AB Stockholm, Sweden

  44. The Critical Role of Model Selection in Causal Inference: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Models within the InferBERT Framework for Pharmacovigilance

    Jun 15, 2026Csaba Kiss, Roland Molontay, Gabriele PergolaLanguage ModelingCausal Inference

    Department of Stochastics, Institute of Mathematics, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3., Budapest, H-1111, Hungary · Institute of Biostatistics and Network Science, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26., Budapest, H-1085, Hungary · Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK

  45. Relational Structural Causal Models

    Jun 12, 2026Adiba Ejaz, Elias BareinboimStructural Causal ModelsCausal Identifiability

    Causal AI Lab, Department of Computer Science, Columbia University, NY, USA.

  46. Graph Diffusion Residuals for Control-Function Instrumental Variables

    Jun 12, 2026Rui Wu, Zongyuan Chen, Hong Xie +2Causal Effect EstimationInstrumental Variable Estimation

    School of Computer Science and Engineering University of Science and Technology of China

  47. Capability Minimization as a Safety Primitive: Risk-Aware Causal Gating for Least-Privilege LLM Agents

    Jun 11, 2026Laxmipriya Ganesh Iyer, Rahul Suresh BabuSelective PredictionCausal Inference

    Independent Researcher

  48. Is It You or Your Environment? A Bayesian Inference Framework for Genomically-Anchored Personalized Physiological Interpretation

    Jun 11, 2026Aruna Dey, Suraj BiswasHealthcareBayesian Inference

    Dots-In

  49. NetCause: Counterfactual Learning for Root Cause Analysis in Large-Scale Networks

    Jun 11, 2026Fabien Chraim, Jian Zhang, Dominik Janzing +3Anomaly LocalizationCausal Inference

    Amazon Web Services, Seattle, Washington, USA

  50. Prediction-Powered Causal Inference by Automatic Debiased Machine Learning and Semi-Supervised Riesz Regression

    Jun 11, 2026Masahiro KatoSemiparametric InferenceParameter Estimation

    Data Analytics Department, Mizuho-DL Financial Technology, Co., Ltd.

  51. Artemis: Anatomy-Resolved inTervention for Eliminating Multimodal NeuroImage confounderS

    Jun 10, 2026Siyuan Dai, Yang Du, Kun Zhao +6Graph Neural NetworksMultimodal Graph Learning

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA. · Department of Computer Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD · Imaging Genetics Center, Mark & Mary Stevens Institute for Neuroimaging & Informatics, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA +2

  52. WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

    Jun 9, 2026Fabio RovaiStructural Causal ModelsCausal World Models

  53. Computational Identifiability

    Jun 8, 2026Lucius E. J. Bynum, Rajesh Ranganath, Kyunghyun ChoCausal Effect EstimationParameter Identifiability

    New York University

  54. MEC-Cox: Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration for ATT Marginal Hazard-Ratio Estimation

    Jun 6, 2026Se Yoon Lee, Yonghyun Kwon, Jae Kwang KimInverse Probability WeightingCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Statistics Texas A&M University College Station, TX, USA · Department of Mathematics Korea Military Academy Seoul, Republic of Korea · Department of Statistics Iowa State University Ames, IA, USA

  55. Causal Agent Replay: Counterfactual Attribution for LLM-Agent Failures

    Jun 6, 2026Jaineet ShahAgent Failure AnalysisAI Agent Reliability

  56. MediEncoder: Nonlinear Representation Learning for High-Dimensional Causal Mediation Analysis

    Jun 5, 2026Shi Bo, Debarghya Mukherjee, AmirEmad GhassamiCausal Effect EstimationRepresentation Learning

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University

  57. Does Topic Sentiment Cause Perceived Ideology? Comparing Human and LLM Annotations in Political News Articles

    Jun 4, 2026Upasana ChatterjeeLLM-Assisted AnnotationPolitical Bias in Language Models

    Department of Computer Science Columbia University

  58. Human Adults and LLMs as Scientists: Who Benefits from Active Exploration?

    Jun 4, 2026Mandana Samiei, Eunice Yiu, Anthony GX-Chen +5Cognitive ModelingCausal Reasoning

    Mila - Quebec AI Institute · McGill University · University of California Berkeley +4

  59. A Pre-Registered Causal Partition of Self-Consistency Elicitation and Reward Design in RLVR

    Jun 4, 2026Yuze GaoReinforcement LearningSelf-Consistency Decoding

  60. Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction

    Jun 4, 2026Amirhossein Zare, Amirhessam Zare, Herlock Rahimi +2Structural Causal ModelsCounterfactual Prediction

    School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. · School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran. +2