Clinical Prediction

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Overview

Clinical prediction studies use patient data to forecast events such as sepsis, readmission, disease progression, treatment response, and changes in severity. Common approaches range from logistic regression and gradient-boosted trees to temporal neural networks, multimodal models, and language models that work with electronic health records; evaluations often use datasets such as MIMIC, eICU, and EHRSHOT. Researchers also develop methods for interpretable predictions, uncertainty estimation, privacy-preserving collaboration, and adapting models to new hospitals or populations. A central challenge is that strong results on internal benchmarks may not transfer across sites or patient groups, so external validation, calibration, leakage control, and evidence of clinical usefulness remain important.

Latest papers

CardsList

202 papers30 papers in the last four weeks, up 30% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Evaluating Document-Tuned Transformer Representations for Person-level Mental Health Assessment

    Jun 19, 2026Aaron Marker, Oscar Kjell, Vasudha Varadarajan +1Sentence EmbeddingsMental Health

    Vanderbilt University · Lund University · Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Predicting gestational age at birth in the context of preterm birth from multi-modal fetal MRI

    Jun 18, 2026Diego Fajardo-Rojas, Megan Hall, Daniel Cromb +4Medical Image AnalysisClinical Outcome Prediction

    Early Life Imaging department, King’s College London, London, UK · Biomedical Computing department, King’s College London, London, UK · Women’s Health department, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK +1

  3. Risk Stratification for ICU Delirium using Pervasive Ambient Sensing Information

    Jun 17, 2026Jiaqing Zhang, Sabyasachi Bandyopadhyay, Miguel Contreras +8Clinical PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States · Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, United States · Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States +1

  4. Language Models as Interfaces, Not Oracles: A Hybrid LLM-ML System for Pediatric Appendicitis

    Jun 17, 2026Soheyl Bateni, Maryam AbdolaliMedical DiagnosisClinical Decision Support

    K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

  5. Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction

    Jun 16, 2026Marc-Andre Schulz, Kerstin RitterLinear RegressionClinical Prediction

    Hertie Institute for AI in Brain Health, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · Tübingen AI Center, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · Department of Psychiatry and Neurosciences, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany +2

  6. Predicting Immune Biomarkers with MultiModal Mixture-of-Expert Pathology Foundation Models Empowers Precision Oncology

    Jun 16, 2026Tianyu Liu, Ziqing Wang, Zhaokang Liang +12Pathology Foundation ModelsClinical Prediction

    Program of Computational Biology and Bioinforamtics, Yale University, USA · Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, USA · These authors contributed equally to this work. +12

  7. Can Physician Expertise Improve Machine Learning Identification of Delirium?

    Jun 16, 2026Xinyu Qin, Vicky Ye, Ruiheng Yu +1Clinical Decision SupportInterpretable ML

    Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, USA · Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Washington, USA · Department of Health Systems & Population Health Sciences, University of Houston, USA

  8. Medical Heuristic Learning: An LLM-Driven Framework for Interpretable and Auditable Clinical Decision Rules

    Jun 15, 2026Wei Xu, Ke Yang, Gang Luo +4Clinical Decision SupportInterpretable ML

    The Centre for Artificial Intelligence Driven Drug Discovery, Macao Polytechnic University, Macao SAR · The Key Laboratory of Short-Range Radio Equipment Testing and Evaluation, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Terahertz Science Application Center (TSAC), Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai, China · The Faculty of Education, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR +2

  9. Beyond Classification: A Cough Regression Benchmark for Respiratory Acoustic Foundation Models

    Jun 13, 2026Mayur Sanap, Prasanna Desikan, Edgar LobatonAudio UnderstandingClinical Prediction

    Centific Global Solutions Inc. · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.

  10. HemExp: Clinically-Guided Latent Diffusion for Modeling Hematoma Expansion

    Jun 13, 2026Orhun Utku Aydin, Satoru Tanioka, Tzu I Chuang +7Longitudinal Medical Image AnalysisClinical Prediction

    CLAIM – Charité Lab for AI in Medicine, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin, Germany · Department of Neurosurgery, Mie Chuo Medical Center, 2158-5 Myojin-cho,2026 514-1101, Hisai,Tsu, Japan

  11. LLM-Powered Personalized Glycemic Assessment in Type 2 Diabetes with Wearable Sensor Data

    Jun 10, 2026Yifan Gao, Yanmin Gong, Yun Shi +1Type 1 DiabetesTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Information Systems and Cybersecurity The University of Texas at San Antonio San Antonio, USA · School of Engineering Medicine Texas A&M University Houston, USA · Department of Family and Community Medicine The University of Texas at San Antonio San Antonio, USA

  12. AGE-MIL: Anchor-Guided Evidence Learning for Patient-Level Prediction

    Jun 10, 2026Jiawei Niu, Jian Chen, Di Zhang +8Computational PathologyWeakly Supervised Learning

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China · Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK · Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China

  13. OncoTraj: a public benchmark for longitudinal resistance prediction in EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer on osimertinib

    Jun 9, 2026Abhijoy Sarkar, Aarchi Singh ThakurCancer GenomicsClinical Outcome Prediction

    Span AI

  14. Multi-FRuGaL: Multimodal Flexible Redundancy-aware Decomposed Gated Learning for Cancer Diagnosis and Prognosis

    Jun 5, 2026Sanket Kachole, Siddhesh Thakur, Shubham Innani +4Missing-Modality LearningCancer Survival Prediction

    Division of Computational Pathology, Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA · IU Melvin and Bren Simon Comprehensive Cancer Center, Indianapolis, IN, USA · Departments of Biostatistics and Health Data Science; Radiology and Imaging Sciences; Neurological Surgery; Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA +1

  15. Federated Learning for Multi-Center Sepsis Early Prediction with Privacy-Preserving

    Jun 3, 2026Xixi Tian, Di Wu, Xiang Liu +4Privacy-Preserving MLClinical Prediction

    College of Computer and Information Science Southwest University Chongqing, China · Department of Anesthesiology Southwest Hospital Chongqing, China

  16. Probabilistic learning to perform pre-onset individualised prediction of disease severity: application to Veno Occlusive Disease

    Jun 2, 2026Dalia Chakrabarty, Kane Warrior, Chuqiao Zhang +2Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Prediction

    University of York, Department of Mathematics, York, YO10 5DD, U.K. · Narayana Superspecialty Hospital, Kolkata 711103, India

  17. Why Do Self-Harm Prediction Models Struggle to Generalise? Lexical and Semantic Variations in Emergency Department Triage Notes

    Jun 1, 2026Liuliu Chen, Mike Conway, Jo Robinson +1Distribution ShiftClinical Triage

    School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Australia · Orygen, The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Australia · Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Australia +1

  18. Longitudinal Multimodal Sensing of Physical Activity and Well-Being in Older Adults

    May 29, 2026Flavio Di Martino, Mattia G. Campana, Marcello Magno +2Clinical Outcome PredictionWearable Sensing

    IIT-CNR, Pisa, Italy · IFC-CNR, Pisa, Italy

  19. Few-shot Cross-country Generalization of Tabular Machine Learning and Foundation Models for Childhood Anemia Prediction under Distribution Shift

    May 26, 2026Yusuf Brima, Marcellin Atemkeng, Lansana Hassim Kallon +4Tabular Foundation ModelsFew-Shot Learning

    Computer Vision, Institute of Cognitive Science, Osnabrück University, Germany · Department of Mathematics, Rhodes University, South Africa · National Institute for Theoretical and computational Sciences (NITheCS), Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa +6

  20. Knowledge Graph Modulated Deep Learning for Limited-Sample Clinical Data Analysis

    May 22, 2026Yuwei Xue, Sakib Mostafa, James Zou +5Graph Representation LearningMedical Diagnosis

    Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA · Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA · Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA +6

  21. CLSP-REQA: A Real-Time Quality-Aware Closed-Loop Seizure Prediction Framework with Mamba-BiLSTM and Confidence-Gated Intervention

    May 21, 2026Mufeng Chen, Qi Wu, Bingchao Huang +4ElectroencephalographyEEG Seizure Detection

    Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PJ, United Kingdom · Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, United Kingdom · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China +4

  22. Benchmarking Machine Learning Architectures for Antimicrobial Stewardship in Pediatric ICUs

    May 21, 2026Niklas Raehse, Luregn J. Schlapbach, Daphné ChopardClinical PredictionLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Department of Intensive Care and Neonatology and Children’s Research Center, University of Zurich, University Children’s Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Department of Computer Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

  23. Embedding-Based Federated Learning with Runtime Governance for Iron Deficiency Prediction

    May 20, 2026Fan Zhang, Simon Deltadahl, Majid Lotfian Delouee +10Federated Learning AggregationHealthcare

    Dept. of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK · Translational AI Laboratory, Dept. of Laboratory Medicine Amsterdam UMC Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Precision Health University Research Institute Queen Mary Univ. of London London, UK +3

  24. Training distribution determines the ceiling of drug-blind cancer sensitivity prediction

    May 20, 2026Taekyung HeoTraining Data SelectionClinical Prediction

  25. Machine-Learning-Enhanced Non-Invasive Testing for MASLD Fibrosis: Shallow-Deep Neural Networks Versus FIB-4, Tabular Foundation Models, and Large Language Models

    May 19, 2026Athanasios Angelakis, Gabriele De Vito, Eleni-Myrto Trifylli +1Shallow Neural NetworksTabular ML

    BioML Lab, RI CODE, UniBw, Munich, Germany · Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, Netherlands · Alpha Indicium, Rijswijk, Netherlands +2

  26. CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support

    May 19, 2026Ricardo Diaz-Rincon, Muxuan Liang, Adolfo Ramirez-Zamora +1Clinical Decision SupportConformal Prediction

    University of Florida · MD Anderson Cancer Center · University of Louisville

  27. Speaker-Disentangled Remote Speech Detection of Asthma and COPD Exacerbations

    May 16, 2026Yuyang Yan, Sami O. Simons, Visara UroviSpeech ProcessingClinical Prediction

    Institute of Data Science, Maastricht University, Paul-Henri Spaaklaan 1, Maastricht, 6229 EN, the Netherlands · Department of Respiratory Medicine, NUTRIM Research Institute of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Faculty of Health Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, P. Debyelaan 25, Maastricht, 6229 HX, the Netherlands · Department of Respiratory Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Centre, P. Debyelaan 25, Maastricht, 6229 HX, the Netherlands

  28. DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System

    May 14, 2026Yunying Zhu, Andrew R Weckstein, Kueiyu Joshua Lin +1HealthcareClinical Prediction

    Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA · Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA · Kempner Institute for the Study of Natural and Artificial Intelligence, Harvard University, MA, USA +2

  29. Uncovering Trajectory and Topological Signatures in Multimodal Pediatric Sleep Embeddings

    May 13, 2026Scott Ye, Harlin LeeMultimodal EmbeddingClinical Prediction

    Department of Radiology, University of California, San Francisco · School of Data Science and Society, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  30. A Unified Three-Stage Machine Learning Framework for Diabetes Detection, Subtype Discrimination, and Cognitive-Metabolic Hypothesis Testing

    May 13, 2026Vishal Pandey, Ruzina Haque Laskar, Rishav TewariMedical DiagnosisClinical Prediction

    Independent Researcher · London, UK · Research Scientist - B +4