Conditional Variational Autoencoder

Rare weather regime transitions pose a challenge for data-driven modeling due to class imbalance. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep learning emulator for a prototypical system with regime transitions, the stochastic Holton--Mass model of stratospheric variability, and analyze the structure of its learned latent space. The Holton--Mass model exhibits two metastable regimes, a strong and a weak polar vortex, maintained by nonlinear wave--mean flow interactions, with weak stochastic forcing intermittently triggering rare transitions between these regimes that qualitatively represent SSW events. We employ a ResNet-inspired Conditional Variational Autoencoder with six-layer encoder and decoder layers and explicit current-state conditioning to model the distribution of the system's state at the next time step (one day). The emulator accurately reproduces short-term dynamics, steady-state probability distributions, regime persistence statistics, rare transition rates, the transition committor function, and the transition expected lead time of the physical model. Beyond emulation fidelity, we interrogate the learned latent representation to understand how the model internalizes the underlying metastable structure of the dynamics. Principal Component Analysis of the 32-dimensional latent space reveals a clear and unsupervised separation into four physically interpretable clusters corresponding to strong versus weak vortex regimes and stable versus transition-prone configurations. Such emergent regime separation in latent space is hard to identify for deep generative models applied to high-dimensional stochastic systems. Our results show that carefully designed probabilistic emulators can uncover physically meaningful manifolds governing extreme-event dynamics, potentially aiding the development of improved operational advanced warning systems.

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to place significant additional demand on residential distribution networks, creating a need for realistic charging datasets for planning and simulation studies. However, access to real-world EV charging data is often limited due to privacy constraints, incomplete records, and restricted availability. This paper proposes a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) for the generation of synthetic EV charging sessions from real transaction-level charging data. The model is trained on engineered session features describing plug-in duration, charging duration, delivered energy, charging delay, and cyclical time-of-week, while conditioning on day of week and managed charging status. A Gaussian negative log-likelihood (NLL) reconstruction loss is employed to model feature-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty, and the latent space is regularised using a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence term. The statistical fidelity of the generated data is evaluated using distributional metrics and downstream task performance through the Train-on-Synthetic-Test-on-Real (TSTR) protocol. Results demonstrate that the proposed approach produces synthetic EV charging sessions that preserve key statistical properties of the original dataset while supporting predictive modelling tasks.

Action Chunking Transformers (ACT) are widely used to learn robot manipulation from demonstrations. Their conditional variational autoencoder includes an encoder meant to capture differences between demonstrations during training. The original ACT paper reported that encoder removal dropped the mean success rate from 35% to 2% on two simulated tasks with human demonstrations. We re-ran this ablation in the original code and checked whether the findings depend on the implementation or training data. The published drop does not reappear in our tests, although smaller gains or losses in success rate remain uncertain. To investigate the discrepancy, we varied training length and how checkpoints are selected for evaluation. Both can reverse which policy scores higher, but the published drop's cause remains unknown. Success rates alone leave open whether the encoder provides information that helps the policy reconstruct demonstrated actions. On the tested ACT benchmark, the sampled latent provides little reconstruction benefit at every tested nonzero weight of the penalty on latent information. At inference, ACT leaves this latent unused and sets it to zero. Skipping the encoder increases training throughput in both implementations we timed. We release code, evaluation tools and results so others can repeat the comparisons and test the encoder on other tasks.

We address the problem of recovering the full-body mesh from only the head pose. This task has become essential for various applications based on head-mounted devices or smart glasses. The challenge of this task lies in estimating the pose information of unobserved body parts based solely on a single joint (i.e., head) trajectory. Several studies have begun to adopt head-conditioned generative models, however, such previous methods are costly and time-consuming due to the diffusion-based iterative process. As an alternative, we propose a simple yet novel method that leverages the latent space of the guidance network, which is designed as a variational autoencoder taking full-body poses as inputs. By enforcing latent distributions of this guidance network and our head-to-motion network to be similar, latent features sampled from the 'guided' distribution, i.e., distribution learned in our head-to-motion network, can be reliably decoded for natural representations of full-body poses even only with the head pose. One important advantage of the proposed method is that one-step sampling scheme achieves remarkably fast inference (more than 50 times faster) compared to diffusion-based approaches. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that the proposed method efficiently improves the performance of ego-body mesh reconstruction.

We investigate whether a generative model can supply useful synthetic motor-imagery (MI) electroencephalography (EEG) trials that improve the accuracy of independent downstream classifiers. We train a class-conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) with an integrated latent classifier on the Zhou motor-imagery dataset, using the learned per-class prior as a generator: sampling the prior for a given label and decoding it into a synthetic, label-consistent signal. A constraint on the covariance matrix of the generated data encourages preservation of covariance structure, and the model is trained with a schedule that alternates ordinary VAE training with a decoder-focused phase that sharpens the generative pathway used for augmentation. We measure the effect of adding synthetic trials to the training set under two evaluation protocols -- within-user (pooled 60/20/20 split across subjects) and cross-user (leave-one-subject-out, LOSO) -- across four representative EEG classification pipelines: Common Spatial Patterns with Linear Discriminant Analysis (CSP+LDA), tangent-space features with a Support Vector Machine (TGSP+SVM), Minimum Distance to Riemannian Mean (MDM), and a neural network based on EEGNetv4 (henceforth EEGNet). Results are aggregated across independent augmentation draws, random seeds (within-user), or leave-one-subject-out folds (cross-user), with uncertainty reported as 95% confidence intervals (Student's $t$-distribution) computed over per-seed/per-fold averages. We find that synthetic EEG from the CVAE is most credible as a source of class-structured, covariance-like data rather than as a substitute for real raw EEG: it can raise the point estimate for MDM, but the broader augmentation claim remains conservative -- observed gains are small and classifier-dependent.

Imbalanced learning addresses predictive modeling problems with underrepresented regions of the data distribution. Although widely studied in classification, imbalanced regression remains challenging because of continuous target variables and heterogeneous density distributions. Existing data-level methods often rely on fixed target partitioning or synthetic sample generation without jointly considering density variations and local feature-space structure. We propose DADIR, a Density-Aware Data-level Imbalanced Regression framework that exploits density information throughout the balancing process. DADIR comprises three components: (1) Density-Aware Adaptive Partitioning (DAAP), which recursively partitions the target space according to density variations; (2) a Density-Regularized Conditional Variational Autoencoder (DR-CVAE), which preserves sparse-region representations while learning latent features; and (3) latent-space data balancing, which combines feature-level clustering with oversampling to generate structurally consistent synthetic samples. Together, these components identify minority regions more effectively, preserve sparse-region information, and generate realistic synthetic data. The resulting balanced dataset can be used directly with existing regression models without modifying their architecture or learning objective. Experiments on diverse imbalanced regression datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in predictive performance, particularly in underrepresented regions, while also improving overall accuracy.

Access to sufficiently large biomedical datasets remains a major obstacle for machine learning in Raman spectroscopy-based diagnostics. In particular, for glioma analysis, datasets are typically small and heterogeneous, affected by acquisition-specific variability. This work investigates the utility of deep generative augmentation in such a small-cohort setting. We analyze glioma biopsy spectra acquired from 58 tumor samples and consider both binary IDH-status classification and 6-class methylation subtype classification problems. To address the limited size and imbalance of the dataset, we develop a conditional variational autoencoder ($β$-CVAE) capable of generating class-conditioned synthetic Raman spectra. The generated data are evaluated in Train-on-Synthetic, Test-on-Real (TS/TR) and Train-on-Synthetic+Real, Test-on-Real (TSR/TR) settings under a strict patient-isolated cross-validation protocol. Models trained exclusively on synthetic data underperform models trained on real spectra, indicating a substantial domain gap between synthetic and real distributions. However, augmenting the real training data with synthetic spectra consistently improves classification performance across multiple models. These findings indicate that, even with a limited number of independent patient samples, generative models can capture sufficient structure to provide useful regularization for downstream classifiers. We also investigate a reconstruction-based inference strategy, termed Classification by Reconstruction (CbR), in which class prediction is based on reconstruction error under different class conditions. Overall, the results support the use of deep generative augmentation as a practical strategy for improving machine learning robustness in Raman spectroscopy applications characterized by limited biomedical datasets.

The rapid proliferation of Internet of things (IoT) devices has significantly expanded the cyber-attack surface, necessitating robust and privacy-preserving intrusion detection systems (IDS). However, centralized learning approaches often suffer from severe performance degradation due to high-dimensional traffic data, extreme class imbalance, and highly non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data across heterogeneous edge devices. To address these challenges, this paper proposes F-ACVAE, a federated adaptive conditional variational autoencoder framework that enables collaborative model training across distributed IoT devices without sharing raw data. F-ACVAE incorporates selective parameter aggregation, where local encoders remain private while globally shared components are synchronized to preserve discriminative latent structures. To further enhance stability under extreme non-IID settings and feature distribution shifts, we introduce a novel constrained momentum Gaussian aggregation (CMGA) strategy that combines update clamping with momentum-based smoothing to mitigate client drift. Extensive experiments on the N-BaIoT dataset demonstrate that F-ACVAE achieves an average accuracy and macro F1-score of 99%, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Moreover, the selective aggregation mechanism reduces communication overhead by approximately 62%, making the framework particularly suitable for resource-constrained IoT environments. These results highlight the effectiveness of F-ACVAE in achieving high detection performance while ensuring privacy preservation and communication efficiency.

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating many plausible outcomes, allowing predictions to be expressed as usable probabilities. Large ensembles and high-resolution forecasts strengthen this guidance by better sampling uncertainty and capturing finer-scale processes but come with significant computational cost. Moreover, forecast ensembles drift and exhibit systematic biases and spatio-temporal errors that grow with lead time, requiring careful post-processing and calibration. A probabilistic post-processing framework based on conditional Variational Autoencoders (cVAEs) was developed at the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis to generate large ensembles of bias adjusted seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice. The generative model was designed to learn the observational distribution conditioned on the biased model prediction. This enables generation of arbitrarily large ensembles of well-calibrated, bias corrected forecasts with improved skill. Here, we extend this framework to address the loss of fine-scale energy and the characteristic blurriness in predictions, a known limitation of standard cVAEs. Specifically, we employ a generator in place of the Gaussian parametrized decoder in the cVAE and use Continuous Ranked Probability Score in the objective function instead of the Mean Square Error. We further use a higher resolution target dataset compared to the raw forecast. We show that the adjusted forecasts are better calibrated, more consistent with the observational distribution, and exhibit smaller errors than benchmark predictions, while also enhancing the resolution of the raw forecasts and improving sharpness and spectral power relative to the standard cVAE.

Synthetic Electronic Health Record (EHR) generation provides a promising avenue for data augmentation and cross-hospital modeling in privacy-constrained healthcare settings. However, most existing EHR generative models are centralized and require pooling data across hospitals, which is often infeasible when real-world data sharing is restricted. While federated EHR generation offers a natural solution, direct federated modeling often collapses or diverges due to the high dimensionality, sparsity, and cross-hospital heterogeneity of EHR data. In this work, we propose FedEHR-Gen, the first federated framework for synthetic time-series EHR generation across distributed hospitals. FedEHR-Gen uses a two-stage learning paradigm. First, we introduce a federated autoencoder that projects high-dimensional and sparse EHR features onto a compact latent space. To ensure semantic consistency across hospitals, we develop a layer-wise matching aggregation mechanism that aligns local encoders into a unified global latent space. Second, operating on this aligned latent space, we train a federated temporal conditional variational autoencoder (TCVAE) with distribution-aware aggregation, enabling stable temporal generative modeling under severe cross-hospital heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on the eICU and MIMIC-III datasets demonstrate that FedEHR-Gen achieves generation fidelity, downstream utility, and privacy risk comparable to centralized training, while consistently outperforming the standard federated baseline.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is widely used for large-scale skeletal assessment, yet learning controllable and interpretable factor-specific anatomical variation remains challenging. We propose a metadata-conditioned causal hierarchical variational autoencoder (CHVAE) for causally consistent generation of anteroposterior (AP) spine DXA images from the UK Biobank (UKB). The model is trained on 3,743 raw AP spine scans from the first imaging visit and conditioned on basic participant attributes and lumbar morphometry. Causal consistency is evaluated in a baseline-to-follow-up setting using abduction--action--prediction (AAP): latent variables are abducted from baseline images, age is intervened to the repeat-imaging value, and the resulting counterfactual follow-up morphometry is compared with observed repeat-imaging measurements. Results show strong absolute-level agreement for key vertebral morphometry variables under age intervention, supporting intervention-aligned synthesis of anatomically plausible DXA images.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous systems operating in complex environments, such as modular buses and delivery robots in suburban or semi-structured areas. Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Social-STGCNN) have shown strong performance by modeling social interactions; however, producing diverse and well-calibrated future trajectories remains challenging. In this work, we build on a Social-STGCNN backbone and introduce a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE)-based probabilistic formulation to explicitly model multimodal future trajectories. We evaluate the method on the ETH and UCY pedestrian trajectory datasets as well as on a real-world pedestrian dataset collected by a mobile robot. Results show moderate gains on public benchmarks, but more consistent endpoint accuracy and improved trajectory diversity across different crowd configurations. Evaluation on robot-collected data further demonstrates the approach's effectiveness beyond curated benchmarks and supports its applicability in practical deployments.

Video generation powers a vast array of downstream applications. However, while the de facto standard, i.e., latent diffusion models, typically employ heavily conditioned denoising networks, their decoders often remain unconditional. We observe that this architectural asymmetry leads to significant loss of detail and inconsistency relative to the input image. To address this, we argue that the decoder requires equal conditioning to preserve structural integrity. We introduce RefDecoder, a reference-conditioned video VAE decoder by injecting high-fidelity reference image signal directly into the decoding process via reference attention. Specifically, a lightweight image encoder maps the reference frame into the detail-rich high-dimensional tokens, which are co-processed with the denoised video latent tokens at each decoder up-sampling stage. We demonstrate consistent improvements across several distinct decoder backbones (e.g., Wan 2.1 and VideoVAE+), achieving up to +2.1dB PSNR over the unconditional baselines on the Inter4K, WebVid, and Large Motion reconstruction benchmarks. Notably, RefDecoder can be directly swapped into existing video generation systems without additional fine-tuning, and we report across-the-board improvements in subject consistency, background consistency, and overall quality scores on the VBench I2V benchmark. Beyond I2V, RefDecoder generalizes well to a wide range of visual generation tasks such as style transfer and video editing refinement.

This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample forecasting errors -- achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE -- and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling.

Safety-critical scenarios are essential for the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) but are rare in real-world driving data. While simulation offers a way to generate such scenarios, manually designed test cases lack scalability, and adversarial optimization often produces unrealistic behaviors. In this work, we introduce a conditional latent flow matching approach for scalable and realistic safety-critical scenario generation. Our method uses distribution matching to transform nominal scenes into safety-critical rollouts. Furthermore, we demonstrate that incorporating both simulation and real-world data enables our framework to efficiently generate diverse, data-driven scenarios. Experimental results highlight that our approach is able to more consistently and realistically generate novel safety-critical scenarios, making it a valuable tool for training and benchmarking AV systems.

Structure aware graph generation aims to generate graphs that satisfy given topological properties. It has applications in domains such as drug discovery, social network modeling, and knowledge graph construction. Unlike existing methods that only provide coarse control over graph properties, we introduce a novel conditional variational autoencoder for fine-grained structural control in graph generation. The approach refines the decoder's latent space by dynamically aligning graph- and property-driven representations to improve both graph fidelity and control satisfaction. Specifically, the approach implements a mixture scheduler that progressively integrates graph and control priors. Experiments on five real-world datasets show the efficacy of the proposed model compared to recent baselines, achieving high generation quality while maintaining high controllability.

Many molecular Transformers lack probabilistic latent variables for posterior inference and latent interpolation. We introduce STAR-VAE, a SELFIES-encoded, Transformer-based, AutoRegressive Variational AutoEncoder combining a bidirectional encoder with an autoregressive decoder pretrained on 79 million PubChem molecules. A property signal jointly conditions the prior, posterior, and decoder, while LoRA adapters support fine-tuning on small datasets without modifying the backbone. STAR-VAE achieves 100% validity and near-perfect novelty under unconditional MOSES sampling, the lowest KL divergence on five of ten GuacaMol descriptors, Spearman \r{ho} = 0.62 at 98% validity for synthetic-accessibility conditioning, and directional docking-score control for three Tartarus protein targets. Across four ChEMBL targets, seed-based posterior sampling recovers target-associated held-out scaffolds while label-conditioned sampling produces structurally diverse outputs. Code is available at https://github.com/BiomedSciAI/STAR-VAE.

The natural language generation domain has witnessed great success thanks to Transformer models. Although they have achieved state-of-the-art generative quality, they often neglect generative diversity. Prior attempts to tackle this issue suffer from either low model capacity or over-complicated architectures. Some recent methods employ the VAE framework to enhance diversity, but their latent variables fully depend on the input context, restricting exploration of the latent space. In this paper, we introduce VOLTA, a framework that elevates generative diversity by bridging Transformer with VAE via a more effective cross-attention-based connection, departing from conventional embedding concatenation or summation. Additionally, we propose integrating InfoGAN-style latent codes to enable input-independent variability, further diversifying the generation. Moreover, our framework accommodates discrete inputs alongside its existing support for continuous inputs. We perform comprehensive experiments with two types of Transformers on six datasets from three different NLG tasks to show that our approach can significantly improve generative diversity while maintaining generative quality.