Healthcare
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38 papers in the last four weeks, up 41% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.
Despite significant progress in Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs), their clinical reasoning capacity for multi-modal diagnosis remains largely unexamined. Current benchmarks, mostly single-modality data, can't evaluate progressive reasoning and cross-modal integration essential for clinical practice. We introduce the Cross-Modality Progressive Clinical Reasoning (X-PCR) benchmark, the first comprehensive evaluation of MLLMs through a complete ophthalmology diagnostic workflow, with two reasoning tasks: 1) a six-stage progressive reasoning chain spanning image quality assessment to clinical decision-making, and 2) a cross-modality reasoning task integrating six imaging modalities. The benchmark comprises 26,415 images and 177,868 expert-verified VQA pairs curated from 51 public datasets, covering 52 ophthalmic diseases. Evaluation of 21 MLLMs reveals critical gaps in progressive reasoning and cross-modal integration. Dataset and code: https://github.com/CVI-SZU/X-PCR.
SurgCoT: Advancing Spatiotemporal Reasoning in Surgical Videos through a Chain-of-Thought Benchmark
Fine-grained spatiotemporal reasoning on surgical videos is critical, yet the capabilities of Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) in this domain remain largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce SurgCoT, a unified benchmark for evaluating chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning in MLLMs across 7 surgical specialties and 35 diverse procedures. SurgCoT assesses five core reasoning dimensions: Causal Action Ordering, Cue-Action Alignment, Affordance Mapping, Micro-Transition Localization, and Anomaly Onset Tracking, through a structured CoT framework with an intensive annotation protocol (Question-Option-Knowledge-Clue-Answer), where the Knowledge field provides essential background context and Clue provides definitive spatiotemporal evidence. Evaluation of 10 leading MLLMs shows: 1) commercial models outperform open-source and medical-specialized variants; 2) significant gaps exist in surgical CoT reasoning; 3) SurgCoT enables effective evaluation and enhances progressive spatiotemporal reasoning. SurgCoT provides a reproducible testbed to narrow the gap between MLLM capabilities and clinical reasoning demands. Code: https://github.com/CVI-SZU/SurgCoT.
Infection-Reasoner: A Compact Vision-Language Model for Wound Infection Classification with Evidence-Grounded Clinical Reasoning
Assessing chronic wound infection from photographs is challenging because visual appearance varies across wound etiologies, anatomical locations, and imaging conditions. Prior image-based deep learning methods have mainly focused on classification with limited interpretability, despite the need for evidence-grounded explanations to support point-of-care decision making. We present Infection-Reasoner, a compact 4B-parameter reasoning vision-language model for chronic wound infection classification and rationale generation. To address the scarcity of expert-labeled wound images with reasoning annotations, Infection-Reasoner is trained using a two-stage pipeline: (1) reasoning distillation, in which GPT-5.1 generates chain-of-thought rationales for unlabeled wound images to initialize wound-specific reasoning in a smaller student model (Qwen3-VL-4B-Thinking), and (2) reinforcement learning post-training with Group Relative Policy Optimization on a small labeled infection dataset to refine classification reasoning. On a held-out heterogeneous wound dataset, Infection-Reasoner achieved 86.8% accuracy, 86.4% sensitivity, and 87.1% specificity, outperforming several strong baselines, including GPT-5.1. Rationale quality was further evaluated using both multimodal large language model (MLLM) judges and wound expert review. Across four MLLM judges, visual-support agreement scores ranged from 0.722 to 0.903, while expert review rated 61.8% of rationales as Correct and 32.4% as Partially Correct.
Beyond Semantic Similarity: A Component-Wise Evaluation Framework for Medical Question Answering Systems with Health Equity Implications
The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to support patients in addressing medical questions is becoming increasingly prevalent. However, most of the measures currently used to evaluate the performance of these models in this context only measure how closely a model's answers match semantically, and therefore do not provide a true indication of the model's medical accuracy or of the health equity risks associated with it. To address these shortcomings, we present a new evaluation framework for medical question answering called VB-Score (Verification-Based Score) that provides a separate evaluation of the four components of entity recognition, semantic similarity, factual consistency, and structured information completeness for medical question-answering models. We perform rigorous reviews of the performance of three well-known and widely used LLMs on 48 public health-related topics taken from high-quality, authoritative information sources. Based on our analyses, we discover a major discrepancy between the models' semantic and entity accuracy. Our assessments of the performance of all three models show that each of them has almost uniformly severe performance failures when evaluated against our criteria. Our findings indicate alarming performance disparities across various public health topics, with most of the models exhibiting 13.8% lower performance (compared to an overall average) for all the public health topics that relate to chronic conditions that occur in older and minority populations, which indicates the existence of what's known as condition-based algorithmic discrimination. Our findings also demonstrate that prompt engineering alone does not compensate for basic architectural limitations on how these models perform in extracting medical entities and raise the question of whether semantic evaluation alone is a sufficient measure of medical AI safety.
Reinforcement Learning Improves LLM Accuracy and Reasoning in Disease Classification from Radiology Reports
Accurate disease classification from radiology reports is essential for many applications. While supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of lightweight LLMs improves accuracy, it can degrade reasoning. We propose a two-stage approach: SFT on disease labels followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to refine predictions by optimizing accuracy and format without reasoning supervision. Across three radiologist-annotated datasets, SFT outperformed baselines and GRPO further improved classification and enhanced reasoning recall and comprehensiveness.
CXRMate-2: Structured Multimodal Temporal Embeddings and Tractable Reinforcement Learning for Clinically Acceptable Chest X-ray Radiology Report Generation
Chest X-ray (CXR) radiology report generation (RRG) models have shown rapid progress on automated metrics, yet their clinical utility remains uncertain due to limited qualitative evaluation by radiologists. We present CXRMate-2, a state-of-the-art CXR RRG model that enables tractable reinforcement learning (RL) through structured multimodal temporal embeddings and high-resolution visual feature compression, for efficient, unified conditioning of an LLM decoder on visual, textual, and temporal context from a study and its prior. This enables group relative policy optimisation (GRPO), where a proposed reward function is used to improve semantic alignment with radiologist reports. Across the MIMIC-CXR, CheXpert Plus, and ReXgradient datasets, CXRMate-2 achieves statistically significant improvements over strong benchmarks, including gains of 11.2% and 24.4% in GREEN and RadGraph-XL, respectively, on MIMIC-CXR relative to MedGemma 1.5 (4B). To directly compare CXRMate-2 against radiologist reporting, we conduct a blinded, randomised qualitative retrospective evaluation. Three consultant radiologists compare generated and radiologist reports across 120 studies from the MIMIC-CXR test set. Generated reports were deemed acceptable (defined as preferred or rated equally to radiologist reports) in 45% of ratings, with no statistically significant difference in preference rates for seven of the eight analysed findings. Preferences for radiologist reports were driven primarily by higher recall, while generated reports were consistently preferred for readability. Together, these results define a clear pathway to clinically acceptable CXR RRG. Improving recall and the detection of subtle findings represents the primary remaining barrier to non-inferiority with radiologist reporting, positioning CXR RRG for prospective evaluation in assistive, radiologist-led workflows.
A multimodal and temporal foundation model for virtual patient representations at healthcare system scale
Modern medicine generates vast multimodal data across siloed systems, yet no existing model integrates the full breadth and temporal depth of the clinical record into a unified patient representation. We introduce Apollo, a multimodal temporal foundation model trained and evaluated on over three decades of longitudinal hospital records from a major US hospital system, composed of 25 billion records from 7.2 million patients, representing 28 distinct medical modalities and 12 major medical specialties. Apollo learns a unified representation space integrating over 100 thousand unique medical events in our clinical vocabulary as well as images and clinical text. This "atlas of medical concepts" forms a computational substrate for modeling entire patient care journeys comprised of sequences of structured and unstructured events, which are compressed by Apollo into virtual patient representations. To assess the potential of these whole-patient representations, we created 322 prognosis and retrieval tasks from a held-out test set of 1.4 million patients. We demonstrate the generalized clinical forecasting potential of Apollo embeddings, including predicting new disease onset risk up to five years in advance (95 tasks), disease progression (78 tasks), treatment response (59 tasks), risk of treatment-related adverse events (17 tasks), and hospital operations endpoints (12 tasks). Using feature attribution techniques, we show that model predictions align with clinically-interpretable multimodal biomarkers. We evaluate semantic similarity search on 61 retrieval tasks, and moreover demonstrate the potential of Apollo as a multimodal medical search engine using text and image queries. Together, these modeling capabilities establish the foundation for computable medicine, where the full context of patient care becomes accessible to computational reasoning.
MedProbeBench: Systematic Benchmarking at Deep Evidence Integration for Expert-level Medical Guideline
Recent advances in deep research systems enable large language models to retrieve, synthesize, and reason over large-scale external knowledge. In medicine, developing clinical guidelines critically depends on such deep evidence integration. However, existing benchmarks fail to evaluate this capability in realistic workflows requiring multi-step evidence integration and expert-level judgment. To address this gap, we introduce MedProbeBench, the first benchmark leveraging high-quality clinical guidelines as expert-level references. Medical guidelines, with their rigorous standards in neutrality and verifiability, represent the pinnacle of medical expertise and pose substantial challenges for deep research agents. For evaluation, we propose MedProbe-Eval, a comprehensive evaluation framework featuring: (1) Holistic Rubrics with 1,200+ task-adaptive rubric criteria for comprehensive quality assessment, and (2) Fine-grained Evidence Verification for rigorous validation of evidence precision, grounded in 5,130+ atomic claims. Evaluation of 17 LLMs and deep research agents reveals critical gaps in evidence integration and guideline generation, underscoring the substantial distance between current capabilities and expert-level clinical guideline development. Project: https://github.com/uni-medical/MedProbeBench
First, Do No Harm (With LLMs): Mitigating Racial Bias via Agentic Workflows
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in clinical settings, raising concerns about racial bias in both generated medical text and clinical reasoning. Existing studies have identified bias in medical LLMs, but many focus on single models and give less attention to mitigation. This study uses the EU AI Act as a governance lens to evaluate five widely used LLMs across two tasks, namely synthetic patient-case generation and differential diagnosis ranking. Using race-stratified epidemiological distributions in the United States and expert differential diagnosis lists as benchmarks, we apply structured prompt templates and a two-part evaluation design to examine implicit and explicit racial bias. All models deviated from observed racial distributions in the synthetic case generation task, with GPT-4.1 showing the smallest overall deviation. In the differential diagnosis task, DeepSeek V3 produced the strongest overall results across the reported metrics. When embedded in an agentic workflow, DeepSeek V3 showed an improvement of 0.0348 in mean p-value, 0.1166 in median p-value, and 0.0949 in mean difference relative to the standalone model, although improvement was not uniform across every metric. These findings support multi-metric bias evaluation for AI systems used in medical settings and suggest that retrieval-based agentic workflows may reduce some forms of explicit bias in benchmarked diagnostic tasks. Detailed prompt templates, experimental datasets, and code pipelines are available on our GitHub.
Employing General-Purpose and Biomedical Large Language Models with Advanced Prompt Engineering for Pharmacoepidemiologic Study Design
Background: The potential of large language models (LLMs) to automate and support pharmacoepidemiologic study design is an emerging area of interest, yet their reliability remains insufficiently characterized. General-purpose LLMs often display inaccuracies, while the comparative performance of specialized biomedical LLMs in this domain remains unknown. Methods: This study evaluated general-purpose LLMs (GPT-4o and DeepSeek-R1) versus biomedically fine-tuned LLMs (QuantFactory/Bio-Medical-Llama-3-8B-GGUF and Irathernotsay/qwen2-1.5B-medical_qa-Finetune) using 46 protocols (2018-2024) from the HMA-EMA Catalogue and Sentinel System. Performance was assessed across relevance, logic of justification, and ontology-code agreement across multiple coding systems using Least-to-Most (LTM) and Active Prompting strategies. Results: GPT-4o and DeepSeek-R1 paired with LTM prompting achieved the highest relevance and logic of justification scores, with GPT-4o-LTM reaching a median relevance score of 4 in 8 of 9 questions for HMA-EMA protocols. Biomedical LLMs showed lower relevance overall and frequently generated insufficient justification. All LLMs demonstrated limited proficiency in ontology-code mapping, although LTM provided the most consistent improvements in reasoning stability. Conclusion: Off-the-shelf general-purpose LLMs currently offer superior support for pharmacoepidemiologic design compared to biomedical LLMs. Prompt strategy strongly influenced LLM performance.
Prior-Fitted Functional Flow: In-Context Generative Models for Pharmacokinetics
We introduce Prior-Fitted Functional Flows, a generative foundation model for pharmacokinetics that enables zero-shot population synthesis and individual forecasting without manual parameter tuning. We learn functional vector fields, explicitly conditioned on the sparse, irregular data of an entire study population. This enables the generation of coherent virtual cohorts as well as forecasting of partially observed patient trajectories with calibrated uncertainty. We construct a new open-access literature corpus to inform our priors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art predictive accuracy on extensive real-world datasets.
PsychBench: Auditing Epidemiological Fidelity in Large Language Model Mental Health Simulations
Large language models are increasingly deployed to simulate patients for clinical training, research, and mental health tools, yet population-level validity remains largely untested. We introduce PsychBench, the first epidemiological audit of LLM patient simulation: 28,800 profiles from four frontier models (GPT-4o-mini, DeepSeek-V3, Gemini-3-Flash, GLM-4.7) evaluated against NHANES and NESARC-III baselines across 120 intersectional cohorts. The central finding is a coherence-fidelity dissociation: models produce clinically plausible individuals while misrepresenting the populations they are drawn from. Variance compression ranges from 14 percent (GLM-4.7) to 62 percent (DeepSeek-V3), eliminating the distributional tails of clinical reality. Despite test-retest correlations above r = 0.90, 36.66 percent of cases cross diagnostic thresholds between runs. Symptom correlation matrices diverge across demographic groups beyond split-half noise, with transgender populations diverging three to five times more than racial differences. Calibration bias is systematic and asymmetric. Models overestimate depression severity for most groups by 3.6 to 6.1 points (Cohen d = 1.13 to 1.91), consistent with training on clinical corpora with elevated base rates. For transgender women the direction inverts: models capture only 8 to 46 percent of documented minority stress elevation, yielding a -5.42 residual (d = -1.55). Models also attribute irritability to Black men and fatigue to women beyond matched controls, encoding racialized and gendered assumptions. Patterns replicate across US and Chinese architectures, indicating failures tied to current training paradigms rather than isolated implementations. For most users, LLM mental health tools risk pathologizing ordinary distress; for transgender users, algorithmic erasure of genuine need. The patients look right. They do not represent real populations.
Calibrated? Not for Everyone: How Sexual Orientation and Religious Markers Distort LLM Accuracy and Confidence in Medical QA
Safe clinical deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) requires not only high accuracy but also robust uncertainty calibration to ensure models defer to clinicians when appropriate. Our paper investigates how social descriptors of a patient (specifically sexual orientation and religious affiliation) distort these uncertainty signals and model accuracy. Evaluating nine general-purpose and biomedical LLMs on 2,364 medical questions and their counterfactual variants, we demonstrate that identity markers cause a "calibration crisis". "Homosexual" markers consistently trigger performance drops, and intersectional identities produce idiosyncratic, non-additive harms to calibration. Moreover, a clinician-validated case study in an open-ended generation setting confirms that these failures are not an artifact of the multiple-choice format. Our results demonstrate that the presence of social identity cues does not merely shift predictions; it affects the reliability of confidence signals, posing a significant risk to equitable care and safe deployment in confidence-based clinical workflows.
MedPRMBench: A Fine-grained Benchmark for Process Reward Models in Medical Reasoning
Process-Level Reward Models (PRMs) are essential for guiding complex reasoning in large language models, yet existing PRM benchmarks cover only general domains such as mathematics, failing to address medical reasoning -- which is uniquely characterized by safety criticality, knowledge intensity, and diverse error patterns. Without a reliable medical PRM evaluation framework, we cannot quantify models' error detection capabilities in clinical reasoning, leaving their safety in real-world healthcare applications unverified. We propose MedPRMBench, the first process-level reward model benchmark for the medical domain. Built through a three-phase pipeline based on Clinical Reasoning Blueprints (CRBs), MedPRMBench systematically generates high-quality evaluation data from seven medical QA sources, covering 14 fine-grained error types across three categories (Simplicity, Soundness, and Sensitivity) with the first 4-level severity grading system to quantify clinical impact. The benchmark comprises 6{,}500 questions with 13{,}000 reasoning chains and 113{,}910 step-level labels, plus 6{,}879 questions for training. Our medical PRM baseline achieves an 87.1% overall PRMScore -- substantially surpassing all baselines -- and serves as a plug-and-play verifier that improves downstream medical QA accuracy by 3.2--6.7 percentage points. Systematic evaluation spanning proprietary frontier models, open-source reasoning models, and medical-specialized models reveals critical weaknesses in current models' medical reasoning error detection capabilities, providing clear directions for future PRM improvement.
Beyond the Basics: Leveraging Large Language Model for Fine-Grained Medical Entity Recognition
Extracting clinically relevant information from unstructured medical narratives such as admission notes, discharge summaries, and emergency case histories remains a challenge in clinical natural language processing (NLP). Medical Entity Recognition (MER) identifies meaningful concepts embedded in these records. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown competitive MER performance; however, evaluations often focus on general entity types, offering limited utility for real-world clinical needs requiring finer-grained extraction. To address this gap, we rigorously evaluated the open-source LLaMA3 model for fine-grained medical entity recognition across 18 clinically detailed categories. To optimize performance, we employed three learning paradigms: zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). To further enhance few-shot learning, we introduced two example selection methods based on token- and sentence-level embedding similarity, utilizing a pre-trained BioBERT model. Unlike prior work assessing zero-shot and few-shot performance on proprietary models (e.g., GPT-4) or fine-tuning different architectures, we ensured methodological consistency by applying all strategies to a unified LLaMA3 backbone, enabling fair comparison across learning settings. Our results showed that fine-tuned LLaMA3 surpasses zero-shot and few-shot approaches by 63.11% and 35.63%, respectivel respectively, achieving an F1 score of 81.24% in granular medical entity extraction.
If Only My CGM Could Speak: A Privacy-Preserving Agent for Question Answering over Continuous Glucose Data
Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) used in diabetes care collect rich personal health data that could improve day-to-day self-management. However, current patient platforms only offer static summaries which do not support inquisitive user queries. Large language models (LLMs) could enable free-form inquiries about continuous glucose data, but deploying them over sensitive health records raises privacy and accuracy concerns. In this paper, we present CGM-Agent, a privacy-preserving framework for question answering over personal glucose data. In our design, the LLM serves purely as a reasoning engine that selects analytical functions. All computation occurs locally, and personal health data never leaves the user's device. For evaluation, we construct a benchmark of 4,180 questions combining parameterized question templates with real user queries and ground truth derived from deterministic program execution. Evaluating 6 leading LLMs, we find that top models achieve 94% value accuracy on synthetic queries and 88% on ambiguous real-world queries. Errors stem primarily from intent and temporal ambiguity rather than computational failures. Additionally, lightweight models achieve competitive performance in our agent design, suggesting opportunities for low-cost deployment. We release our code and benchmark to support future work on trustworthy health agents.
The Provenance Gap in Clinical AI: Evidence-Traceable Temporal Knowledge Graphs for Rare Disease Reasoning
Frontier large language models generate clinically accurate outputs, but their citations are often fabricated. We term this the Provenance Gap. We tested five frontier LLMs across 36 clinician-validated scenarios for three rare neuromuscular disease pairs. No model produced a clinically relevant PubMed identifier without prompting. When explicitly asked to cite, the best model achieved 15.3% relevant PMIDs; the majority resolved to real publications in unrelated fields. We present HEG-TKG (Hierarchical Evidence-Grounded Temporal Knowledge Graphs), a system that grounds clinical claims in temporal knowledge graphs built from 4,512 PubMed records and curated sources with quality-tier stratification and 1,280 disease-trajectory milestones. In a controlled three-arm comparison using the same synthesis model, HEG-TKG matches baseline clinical feature coverage while achieving 100% evidence verifiability with 203 inline citations. Guideline-RAG, given overlapping source documents as raw text, produces zero verifiable citations. LLM judges cannot distinguish fabricated from verified citations without PubMed audit data. Independent clinician evaluation confirms the verifiability advantage (Cohen's d = 1.81, p < 0.001) with no degradation on safety or completeness. A counterfactual experiment shows 80% resistance to injected clinical errors with 100% detectability via citation trace. The system deploys on-premise via open-source models so patient data never leaves institutional infrastructure.
Tree of Concepts: Interpretable Continual Learners in Non-Stationary Clinical Domains
Continual learning aims to update models under distribution shift without forgetting, yet many high-stakes deployments, such as healthcare, also require interpretability. In practice, models that adapt well (e.g., deep networks) are often opaque, while models that are interpretable (e.g., decision trees) are brittle under shift, making it difficult to achieve both properties simultaneously. In response, we propose Tree of Concepts, an interpretable continual learning framework that uses a shallow decision tree to define a fixed, rule-based concept interface and trains a concept bottleneck model to predict these concepts from raw features. Continual updates act on the concept extractor and label head while keeping concept semantics stable over time, yielding explanations that do not drift across sequential updates. On multiple tabular healthcare benchmarks under continual learning protocols, our method achieves a stronger stability-plasticity trade-off than existing baselines, including replay-enhanced variants. Our results suggest that structured concept interfaces can support continual adaptation while preserving a consistent audit interface in non-stationary, high-stakes domains.
Evaluating Multimodal LLMs for Inpatient Diagnosis: Real-World Performance, Safety, and Cost Across Ten Frontier Models
Background: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for diagnostic support, but few evaluations use real-world multimodal inpatient data, particularly in low and middle-income country (LMIC) public hospitals. Methods: We conducted VALID, a retrospective evaluation of 539 multimodal inpatient cases from a tertiary public hospital in South Africa. Inputs included radiology imaging (CT, MRI, CXR) and reports, laboratory results, clinical notes, and vital signs. Expert panels adjudicated 300 cases (balanced and discordant subsets) to establish ground truth diagnoses, differentials, and reasoning. Ten multimodal LLMs generated zero-shot outputs. A calibrated three-model LLM Jury scored all outputs and routine ward diagnoses across diagnostic accuracy, differential quality, reasoning, and patient safety (>10,000 evaluations). Primary outcomes were composite scores (, ) and win rates. Results: (i) LLM performance was tightly clustered (<15% variation) despite large cost differences; low-cost models performed comparably to top models. (ii) All LLMs significantly outperformed routine ward diagnoses on average diagnostic and safety scores. (iii) Top performance was achieved by GPT-5.1, followed by Gemini models. (vi) Adding radiology reports improved performance by 6%. (v) Diagnostic and reasoning scores were highly correlated (). (vi) Output rates varied (65-100%) due to input constraints. Results were robust across subsets and evaluation design. Conclusions: Across a real-world LMIC dataset, multimodal LLMs showed similar diagnostic performance despite large cost differences and outperformed routine care on average safety metrics. Affordability, robustness, and deployment constraints may outweigh marginal performance differences in LMIC settings.
HealthCraft: A Reinforcement Learning Safety Environment for Emergency Medicine
Frontier language models are being deployed into clinical workflows faster than the infrastructure to evaluate them safely. Static medical-QA benchmarks miss the failure modes that matter in emergency medicine: trajectory-level safety collapse, tool misuse, and capitulation under sustained clinical pressure. We present HealthCraft, the first public reinforcement-learning environment that rewards trajectory-level safety under realistic emergency-medicine conditions, adapted from Corecraft. It is built on a FHIR R4 world state with 14 entity types and 3,987 seed entities, exposes 24 MCP tools, and defines a dual-layer rubric that zeroes reward whenever any safety-critical criterion is violated. We release 195 tasks across six categories, graded against 2,255 binary criteria (515 safety-critical); a post-hoc 10-task negative-class slate extends this to 205 tasks and 2,337 criteria. V8 results on two frontier models show Claude Opus 4.6 at Pass@1 24.8% [21.5-28.4] and GPT-5.4 at 12.6% [10.2-15.6], with safety-failure rates of 27.5% and 34.0%. On multi-step workflows - the closest proxy to real emergency care - performance collapses to near zero (Claude 1.0%, GPT-5.4 0.0%) despite partial competence on individual steps. Six infrastructure bugs fixed between pilots v2 and v8 re-ordered which model "looks stronger," evidence that infrastructure fidelity is part of the measurement. A deterministic LLM-judge overlay bounds evaluator noise, and a 60-run negative-class smoke pilot shows the reward signal is not drop-in training-safe: restraint criteria pass at 0.929 prevalence, a gameability an eval harness can tolerate but a training reward cannot. We scaffold coupling to a Megatron+SGLang+GRPO loop per Corecraft Section 5.2 and leave training-reward ablations as future work. Environment, tasks, rubrics, and harness are released under Apache 2.0.
CT Open: An Open-Access, Uncontaminated, Live Platform for the Open Challenge of Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction
Scientists have long sought to accurately predict outcomes of real-world events before they happen. Can AI systems do so more reliably? We study this question through clinical trial outcome prediction, a high-stakes open challenge even for domain experts. We introduce CT Open, an open-access, live platform that will run four challenge every year. Anyone can submit predictions for each challenge. CT Open evaluates those submissions on trials whose outcomes were not yet public at the time of submission but were made public afterwards. Determining if a trial's outcome is public on the internet before a certain date is surprisingly difficult. Outcomes posted on official registries may lag behind by years, while the first mention may appear in obscure articles. To address this, we propose a novel, fully automated decontamination pipeline that uses iterative LLM-powered web search to identify the earliest mention of trial outcomes. We validate the pipeline's quality and accuracy by human expert's annotations. Since CT Open's pipeline ensures that every evaluated trial had no publicly reported outcome when the prediction was made, it allows participants to use any methodology and any data source. In this paper, we release a training set and two time-stamped test benchmarks, Winter 2025 and Summer 2025. We believe CT Open can serve as a central hub for advancing AI research on forecasting real-world outcomes before they occur, while also informing biomedical research and improving clinical trial design. CT Open Platform is hosted at https://ct-open.net/
Authority Signals in Claude AI Health Citations: A Descriptive Analysis Using the Authority Signals Framework
This study seeks to determine the authority signals used by Anthropic's Claude AI in its presentation of sources when answering consumer health questions. While there exists a great deal of discourse around the quality of health citations that LLMs produce, there is limited information on the integrity of the sources the citations originate from, and to what extent the sources are, from what health professionals would consider, credible sources. This descriptive cross-sectional study used data from HealthSearchQA, which contains 3,172 consumer health questions curated by Google Research. After exclusions, a final dataset of 3,075 questions yielding 10,038 citations was analyzed. The Authority Signals Framework (Jacques et al., 2026) was applied to examine 10 authority signals across four domains for a disproportionate stratified sample of 542 sources. Established institutional sources accounted for 97.8% of all citations (n = 9,818). Medical Institutions were the most frequently cited organization type (36.5%), followed by Government Resources (31.6%) and Professional Associations (28.4%). Commercial Health Information comprised 2.2% (n = 220). The top 10 organizations accounted for 57.8% of all citations, with Mayo Clinic alone representing 24.7%. Among commercial sources in the focused sample, 86.4% displayed medical review statements, 82.5% used schema markup, and 71.8% had comprehensive content, while traditional institutional sources appeared in Claude's citations with or without these same markers. As Anthropic positions Claude for HIPAA-ready healthcare applications, these findings establish a baseline for Claude's citation behavior and demonstrate the utility of the Authority Signals Framework as a tool for ongoing, cross-platform evaluation of AI-mediated health information.
Veritas-RPM: Provenance-Guided Multi-Agent False Positive Suppression for Remote Patient Monitoring
We present Veritas-RPM, a provenance-guided multi-agent architecture comprising five processing layers: VeritasAgent (ground-truth assembly), SentinelLayer (anomaly detection), DirectorAgent (specialist routing), six domain Specialist Agents, and MetaSentinelAgent (conflict resolution and final decision). We construct a 98-case synthetic taxonomy of false-positive scenarios derived from documented RPM patterns. Synthetic patient epochs (n = 530) were generated directly from taxonomy parameters and processed through the pipeline. Ground-truth labels are known for all cases. Performance is reported as True Suppression Rate (TSR), False Escalation Rate (FER), and Indeterminate Rate (INDR).
Evaluating quality in synthetic data generation for large tabular health datasets
There is no consensus in the field of synthetic data on concise metrics for quality evaluations or benchmarks on large health datasets, such as historical epidemiological data. This study presents an evaluation of seven recent models from major machine learning families. The models were evaluated using four different datasets, each with a distinct scale. To ensure a fair comparison, we systematically tuned the hyperparameters of each model for each dataset. We propose a methodology for evaluating the fidelity of synthesized joint distributions, aligning metrics with visualization on a single plot. This method is applicable to any dataset and is complemented by a domain-specific analysis of the German Cancer Registries' epidemiological dataset. The analysis reveals the challenges models face in strictly adhering to the medical domain. We hope this approach will serve as a foundational framework for guiding the selection of synthesizers and remain accessible to all stakeholders involved in releasing synthetic datasets.
Improving Heart-Focused Medical Question Answering in LLMs via Variance-Aware Rubric Rewards with GRPO
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong promise in healthcare applications. Yet deploying general-purpose models in real-world settings remains difficult due to data privacy constraints, inference costs, and limited suitability for edge or on-device use. These challenges motivate the development of smaller, more efficient models that require robust post-training strategies to ensure reliable medical reasoning. In this work, we investigate Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for post-training LLMs on heart-focused medical question answering with rubric-based supervision derived from RaR-Medicine. We propose a Variance-Aware Reward Framework that extends the Explicit Aggregation and Implicit Aggregation strategies of Rubrics as Rewards by replacing weighted binary criterion aggregation and single overall Likert-style scoring with continuous analytical reward functions derived from criterion-level rubric outcomes. This formulation provides richer optimization signals for feedback that is sparse, multi-criteria, and difficult to verify automatically, and enables more stable on-policy reinforcement learning. On a held-out heart-related subset of HealthBench, our best GRPO variant improves accuracy from 0.362 to 0.502 and F1 from 0.532 to 0.668 relative to the Qwen3-14B base model, while remaining competitive with GPT-OSS-120B (0.508 accuracy, 0.674 F1). Our findings show that carefully designed rubric-based rewards provide a practical strategy for improving heart-focused medical question answering in LLMs, with potential to extend to other rubric-based tasks.
FD-NL2SQL: Feedback-Driven Clinical NL2SQL that Improves with Use
Clinicians exploring oncology trial repositories often need ad-hoc, multi-constraint queries over biomarkers, endpoints, interventions, and time, yet writing SQL requires schema expertise. We demo FD-NL2SQL, a feedback-driven clinical NL2SQL assistant for SQLite-based oncology databases. Given a natural-language question, a schema-aware LLM decomposes it into predicate-level sub-questions, retrieves semantically similar expert-verified NL2SQL exemplars via sentence embeddings, and synthesizes executable SQL conditioned on the decomposition, retrieved exemplars, and schema, with post-processing validity checks. To improve with use, FD-NL2SQL incorporates two update signals: (i) clinician edits of generated SQL are approved and added to the exemplar bank; and (ii) lightweight logic-based SQL augmentation applies a single atomic mutation (e.g., operator or column change), retaining variants only if they return non-empty results. A second LLM generates the corresponding natural-language question and predicate decomposition for accepted variants, automatically expanding the exemplar bank without additional annotation. The demo interface exposes decomposition, retrieval, synthesis, and execution results to support interactive refinement and continuous improvement.
DeepER-Med: Advancing Deep Evidence-Based Research in Medicine Through Agentic AI
Trustworthiness and transparency are essential for the clinical adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in healthcare and biomedical research. Recent deep research systems aim to accelerate evidence-grounded scientific discovery by integrating AI agents with multi-hop information retrieval, reasoning, and synthesis. However, most existing systems lack explicit and inspectable criteria for evidence appraisal, creating a risk of compounding errors and making it difficult for researchers and clinicians to assess the reliability of their outputs. In parallel, current benchmarking approaches rarely evaluate performance on complex, real-world medical questions. Here, we introduce DeepER-Med, a Deep Evidence-based Research framework for Medicine with an agentic AI system. DeepER-Med frames deep medical research as an explicit and inspectable workflow of evidence-based generation, consisting of three modules: research planning, agentic collaboration, and evidence synthesis. To support realistic evaluation, we also present DeepER-MedQA, an evidence-grounded dataset comprising 100 expert-level research questions derived from authentic medical research scenarios and curated by a multidisciplinary panel of 11 biomedical experts. Expert manual evaluation demonstrates that DeepER-Med consistently outperforms widely used production-grade platforms across multiple criteria, including the generation of novel scientific insights. We further demonstrate the practical utility of DeepER-Med through eight real-world clinical cases. Human clinician assessment indicates that DeepER-Med's conclusions align with clinical recommendations in seven cases, highlighting its potential for medical research and decision support.
RadAgent: A tool-using AI agent for stepwise interpretation of chest computed tomography
Vision-language models (VLM) have markedly advanced AI-driven interpretation and reporting of complex medical imaging, such as computed tomography (CT). Yet, existing methods largely relegate clinicians to passive observers of final outputs, offering no interpretable reasoning trace for them to inspect, validate, or refine. To address this, we introduce RadAgent, a tool-using AI agent that generates CT reports through a stepwise and interpretable process. Each resulting report is accompanied by a fully inspectable trace of intermediate decisions and tool interactions, allowing clinicians to examine how the reported findings are derived. In our experiments, we observe that RadAgent improves chest CT report generation over its 3D VLM counterpart, CT-Chat, across three dimensions. Clinical accuracy improves by 5.8 points (35.4% relative) in macro-F1 and 5.1 points (18.6% relative) in micro-F1. Robustness under adversarial conditions improves by 24.7 points (41.9% relative). Furthermore, RadAgent achieves 37.0% in faithfulness, a new capability entirely absent in its 3D VLM counterpart. By structuring the interpretation of chest CT as an explicit, tool-augmented and iterative reasoning trace, RadAgent brings us closer toward transparent and reliable AI for radiology.
MADE: A Living Benchmark for Multi-Label Text Classification with Uncertainty Quantification of Medical Device Adverse Events
Machine learning in high-stakes domains such as healthcare requires not only strong predictive performance but also reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) to support human oversight. Multi-label text classification (MLTC) is a central task in this domain, yet remains challenging due to label imbalances, dependencies, and combinatorial complexity. Existing MLTC benchmarks are increasingly saturated and may be affected by training data contamination, making it difficult to distinguish genuine reasoning capabilities from memorization. We introduce MADE, a living MLTC benchmark derived from {m}edical device {ad}verse {e}vent reports and continuously updated with newly published reports to prevent contamination. MADE features a long-tailed distribution of hierarchical labels and enables reproducible evaluation with strict temporal splits. We establish baselines across more than 20 encoder- and decoder-only models under fine-tuning and few-shot settings (instruction-tuned/reasoning variants, local/API-accessible). We systematically assess entropy-/consistency-based and self-verbalized UQ methods. Results show clear trade-offs: smaller discriminatively fine-tuned decoders achieve the strongest head-to-tail accuracy while maintaining competitive UQ; generative fine-tuning delivers the most reliable UQ; large reasoning models improve performance on rare labels yet exhibit surprisingly weak UQ; and self-verbalized confidence is not a reliable proxy for uncertainty. Our work is publicly available at https://hhi.fraunhofer.de/aml-demonstrator/made-benchmark.
Can LLMs Accurately Score Medical Diagnoses and Clinical Reasoning?
Evaluating medical AI systems using expert clinician panels is costly and slow, motivating the use of large language models (LLMs) as alternative adjudicators. Here, we evaluate an LLM Jury, composed of three frontier AI models, for scoring 3334 diagnoses on 300 real-world low- and middle-income country (LMIC) hospital cases. Both LLM- and clinician-generated diagnoses are scored against expert panel diagnoses across four dimensions: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, clinical reasoning, and negative treatment risk. The LLM Jury scores are compared with expert and independent re-scoring panel scores to assess error metrics, inter-rater agreement, severe-risk errors, and the effect of post hoc calibration using isotonic regression. In our data, we find that: (i) the uncalibrated LLM Jury scores preserve ordinal agreement with the expert clinician panel scores, but are systematically lower; (ii) the probability of severe-risk errors is lower for the LLM Jury than the human expert re-score panels; (iii) the LLM Jury combined with LLM diagnoses can be used to identify diagnoses at high risk of error, enabling targeted expert review and improved panel efficiency; (iv) the calibrated LLM Jury scores and rankings of diagnosing agents show excellent agreement with those of the primary expert panels; (v) LLM Jury models show no self-preference bias, they did not score diagnoses generated by their own underlying model or models from the same vendor more (or less) favourably than those generated by other models. Together, these results provide evidence that a calibrated LLM Jury is a trustworthy and reliable proxy for expert clinician evaluation in medical AI benchmarking. Confirming these findings in other clinical settings is an important direction for future work.