Hindsight

Outcome verifiers score completed reasoning traces but do not assign credit to intermediate tokens. Privileged self-distillation attempts to fill this gap by rescoring a model's own rollout with training-only information. A token likelihood change, however, is not automatically outcome credit. We separate three questions: whether the score tracks better actions, whether feedback construction changes what is compared, and what behavior the training loss reinforces. We establish these distinctions formally. When a rollout is scored using hindsight feedback written about that same rollout, its content determines both the tokens and the scoring context, creating direct self-dependence. Using feedback from another rollout of the same problem removes this dependence but does not guarantee a useful score. In matched experiments with a 20B model on AIME 2025, the implemented additive score is near chance (AUC=0.505) and slightly favors incorrect traces after length adjustment. In the paired comparison, the outcome-only control records 64.2%, versus 24.2%--33.9% for five token-score variants. The results motivate validating score meaning, feedback construction, and training behavior separately before calling a likelihood signal credit.

Recent agentic reinforcement learning methods use hindsight to complement sparse outcome rewards. However, a completed rollout can yield many such signals, leaving their appropriate allocation across turns unclear. We introduce TRIAL, a trajectory-relative hindsight distillation framework with a unified turn-aligned scoring protocol. For each decision turn, TRIAL extracts an outcome view of that decision's realized consequence and evaluates the same response under ordinary and hindsight-conditioned contexts. The signed log-probability gap determines the direction and local strength of token-level supervision, while turn-level magnitudes are normalized jointly over the realized trajectory. The resulting allocation multipliers have an eligible-token-weighted mean of one, redistributing dense supervision across turns while fixing its average multiplier. Experiments on WebShop and ALFWorld with different backbones show that TRIAL outperforms GRPO across all eight combinations of backbone, environment, and evaluation metric, while achieving the best or tied-best performance among six methods on six of them. On WebShop with Qwen3-1.7B, TRIAL improves the success rate from 56.4% to 75.2% and the task score from 78.7% to 85.7%. Controlled ablations further show that trajectory-relative turn allocation provides substantial gains beyond those of dense hindsight distillation alone.

GUI agents are commonly trained offline from successful interaction trajectories. Standard training decomposes each trajectory into prefix-action pairs: the agent predicts an action from the current screen and interaction history, while the subsequent observation is discarded. This removes the rationale of why an action is correct: the evidence often appears only on the subsequent screen. For example, to enable Soft Wrap, the agent should click Edit or View, but nothing reveals this until the menu opens. Without such evidence, standard imitation gives the model little chance of ever sampling and thus learning the correct reasoning. To address this issue, we propose Gated Hindsight Distillation (GHD), which uses the next screenshot as privileged information during training. A student predicts from the observable trajectory prefix, while a parameter-sharing teacher additionally observes the next screenshot and re-scores the student's on-policy responses. We apply distillation only when the student fails and the hindsight-conditioned teacher recovers the demonstrated action. GHD improves task success over GRPO on AndroidWorld and AndroidLab across two vision-language models. The code and checkpoints will be made available.

Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) enables LLMs to solve complex tasks through iterative tool interactions. However, existing reinforcement learning methods often rely on trajectory-level supervision, limiting fine-grained credit assignment in long-horizon TIR scenarios. On-policy self-distillation offers denser signals through teacher branches with privileged context, but existing approaches typically derive such context from ground-truth answers or retrieved skills, which may not reflect the states actually visited by the agent. Moreover, token-level supervision fails to capture the turn-level structure of tool interactions. To address this, we propose TurnSight, a turn-level hindsight self-distillation framework that derives supervision directly from execution-conditioned hindsight. It then constructs multiple hindsight views with different lookahead horizons and selects reliable supervision through cross-horizon directional agreement. Finally, the selected hindsight signal is normalized across sibling rollouts and used to adaptively modulate RL advantages while preserving their original optimization direction. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of TurnSight. Our codes are available at https://github.com/quchangle1/TurnSight.

Search-augmented LM agents are typically trained with a binary exact-match reward, which throws away most of what a failed trajectory tells us about why it failed. We introduce HindSearch, a hindsight self-distillation procedure for GRPO: after each rollout, a frozen judge writes a short critique of every failed trajectory using the gold answer, and the critique supplies an auxiliary on-policy distillation signal on the student's search actions. On the standard seven-benchmark suite with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, HindSearch reaches 39.4% average EM, outperforming prior search-RL baselines. Removing the judge's access to the gold answer erases most of the gain, isolating hindsight as the source of the improvement.

Recent Text-to-SQL systems increasingly rely on multi-turn interaction, execution feedback, and reinforcement learning. However, most existing methods use execution correctness only as a trajectory-level reward, which provides limited guidance for identifying the SQL decisions responsible for success or failure. We propose SERL-SQL, a selective execution-grounded reinforcement learning framework for multi-turn Text-to-SQL agents. SERL-SQL samples on-policy SQL interaction trajectories and uses a training-only teacher to re-score student actions with execution feedback. The resulting teacher--student likelihood gap is converted into bounded, masked weights that reweight GRPO advantages only on SQL and tool-action tokens. In this way, task rewards preserve the optimization direction, while execution hindsight provides localized credit assignment. Experiments on BIRD, Spider, and cross-domain benchmarks show that SERL-SQL achieves competitive performance, reaching 76.56% execution accuracy on BIRD-Dev and 89.92% on Spider-Test. Moreover, our reward-based selection strategy closely approaches the oracle Best-of-N upper bound and consistently outperforms consistency-based selection, showing that SERL-SQL produces high-quality candidates that can be reliably identified by lightweight execution-grounded rewards. Our code will be released at https://github.com/Ffunkytao/SERL-SQL.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) provides reliable outcome supervision for language model reasoning, but a scalar trajectory reward offers limited token-level guidance. Existing self-distillation methods add a privileged teacher but typically assign it a fixed role: direct distribution matching may destabilize successful behavior, while magnitude-only modulation offers little corrective guidance after failure. We observe that successful and failed trajectories require different forms of hindsight supervision. A successful response already contains a valid student-generated reasoning path and can therefore serve as privileged context rather than being replaced by an external rationale. A failed response, however, requires corrective reference information. We introduce Hybrid Hindsight Self-Distillation ($\mathrm{H}^{2}\mathrm{SD}$), which jointly adapts teacher context and update strategy to trajectory correctness. For successful trajectories, we construct the teacher context from the verified response and a rephrasing instruction, and use the teacher only to re-evaluate the original response tokens. The resulting probabilities refine token credit assignment without changing the direction determined by the reward. For failed trajectories, a verified reference hint provides corrective guidance through reverse-KL distillation. Experiments on challenging reasoning benchmarks show that H$^2$SD achieves the strongest overall performance among representative RLVR and self-distillation baselines, with stable optimization and a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off.

Large language models leak parametric knowledge of what followed a historical date into decision tasks indexed by that date -- not necessarily a lookup of the realized outcome, but knowledge of the period all the same. Existence is settled; what users lack is a cheap way to audit a given model. We present HindsightBench, a black-box audit protocol that profiles parametric hindsight in any time-indexed LLM decision task at probe-level cost (no backtests, no logprobs, no corpus access). It chains a four-arm date-manipulation matrix (revealed/date-only/masked/transplanted), dual memory probes (date recovery; outcome recall), and six metrics -- trigger strength, transplant effect, post-cutoff placebo, recoverability, behaviorally effective cutoff, and recall-accuracy dissociation -- with explicit gates where identifiability is data-dependent. Applied to 15 models from seven vendors on a 258-node vintage-correct macro panel, it yields three patterns: (i) the date-trigger reflex is not a scale phenomenon -- it tracks training recency, though what installs it is not identified here: absent across every 2024 open-weight row where it is measurable, including a 70B tier with cutoff-aligned recall propensity, present in every tested 2026-generation model, and switching on within one vendor lineage (Qwen3 -> Qwen3.6) in the same MoE family at ~3B active; (ii) effective cutoffs span 22 months across vendors and precede vendor-reported dates by up to eight months, invalidating calendar-window placebos; (iii) results are not invariant to serving -- BF16 serving of an FP8-referenced model breaks the trigger estimate's stability while AWQ-INT4 preserves it, and a provider-locked reasoning regime makes one probe non-convergent -- so the protocol pins quantization and thinking regime as part of its contract. We release the panel, preregistrations, audit rows, transcripts, and one-command regeneration.

New-user cold-start is a critical bottleneck for e-commerce platforms: predicting user lifetime value (LTV) and conversion rate (CVR) for users with sparse interaction history. Two prior directions -- LLM-based semantic augmentation and learning using privileged information (LUPI) -- each face a key limitation. First, LLM augmentation produces unstructured rationales that are noisy and hard to operationalize in production. Second, naive student-teacher distillation can be brittle due to an information gap between the privileged teacher and the sparse student; moreover, this gap is heterogeneous across users. We propose SemRaD, a Semantic Reasoning-aware Distillation framework addressing both limitations. First, a Structured Semantic Reasoning Pipeline replaces free-form rationales with a structured schema built via a discover-curate-audit workflow, producing per user a Densified Semantic Profile (consumed by the deployed student via a Semantic-Gated Encoder that focuses on the most informative dimensions) and a Hindsight Distillation Target reconciled from pre- and post-conversion reasoning (used only at training). Second, to bridge this gap and handle its heterogeneity, a Hindsight-Aware Distillation Network transfers privileged knowledge via the hindsight target, with Distillation Experts improving transfer under per-user variability. On a large-scale industrial dataset, SemRaD lifts +1.9% LTV (Gini) and +1.0% CVR (AUROC) over a production-grade base; a four-week online A/B at Keeta confirms +1.0% LTV / +0.43% CVR. SemRaD also matches the production system's LTV using only 9% of the training data while improving CVR by 0.8%.

The Credit Assignment Problem (CAP) is fundamental to developing efficient and explainable Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents. Existing frameworks, whether relying on temporal contiguity or hindsight-conditioned reward reweighting, frequently fail to attribute properly between an agent's policy (skill) and environmental stochasticity (luck). A principled approach to CAP must isolate the true causal drivers of observed outcomes from spurious correlations and environmental randomness. We introduce Counterfactual Shapley Credit Assignment, a novel framework grounded in causal theory that attributes credit and blame via the Counterfactual Shapley Value ($φ$-value). By redistributing environmental rewards, $φ$-values enhance temporal credit assignment across three critical dimensions: sparse causality, high stochasticity, and delayed rewards, all while preserving the optimal policy. We derive a consistent estimator that computes $φ$-values efficiently, enabling a new class of policy gradient methods, $φ$-PPO, combined with Prioritized Trajectory Replay (PTR). Empirical results demonstrate that $φ$-values align precisely to the ground truth causes of task rewards with superior sample efficiency in challenging environments where prior state-of-the-art methods fail to converge.

We present a language-model forecasting system for merger arbitrage, a specialized high-stakes financial setting in which the task is to predict the outcome of announced M&A deals. Unlike prior work on judgmental forecasting with LLMs, which has focused on broad mixed-topic benchmarks and short context such as news snippets, we study a setting that requires long-context reasoning over hundreds of pages of technical documents. Our system combines expert-guided context engineering with finetuning on hindsight-guided reasoning traces derived from historical deals. Given an announced deal, it outputs a probability distribution over three mutually exclusive outcomes: closing at announced terms, a higher bid, or deal termination. On an out-of-sample set of more than 400 large deals spanning 42 countries, our finetuned system achieves the best performance of any method we evaluate, reducing class-balanced Brier score to 0.151. This is 24% below calibrated market-implied probabilities, 19% below XGBoost, and 25-42% below frontier language models. These results, together with ablation studies, show that LLM-based forecasting can succeed in specialized, long-context financial workflows, with hindsight-based supervision and expert-designed context playing a critical role.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is increasingly used to post-train vision-language-action (VLA) models, but every update consumes robot rollouts that are slow and costly to collect, making sample efficiency a central concern. Manipulation tasks typically provide only sparse rewards, so a weak policy fails almost every rollout early in training and has little to learn from, even when those failures execute coherent behavior. Such a failure, however, is a success at a different task. We present Learning from Hindsight (LfH), which brings hindsight relabeling to RL post-training of VLAs by scoring failed rollouts against the tasks they actually achieved. A single vision-language model relabels both the instruction and the reward, proposing a hindsight instruction for a group of failed rollouts and scoring how well each satisfies it, and the policy trains on the relabeled and original rollouts jointly. Because VLAs generalize across language, relabeling in language lets the policy learn more from the same trajectories. On out-of-distribution LIBERO-PRO tasks, where standard RL improves only slowly, LfH achieves $5\times$ improvement in sample efficiency, and outperforms a dense progress-reward baseline. The gains hold across VLA backbones and on a physical Franka robot.

Online truckload bid acceptance is a closed-loop stochastic decision problem in which a carrier or broker must, in real time, accept or reject a tendered load subject to operational feasibility, fleet repositioning costs, and opportunity cost against future demand. Public, reproducible benchmarks for this problem are scarce: existing routing benchmarks are static, while dynamic-fleet studies typically rely on private operator data. We introduce FreightBidBench, a public-calibrated, dependency-free, closed-loop benchmark in which feasibility (pickup reach, appointment windows, simplified hours-of-service, stochastic yard delays) and economics (service-failure penalty, terminal fleet value, daily price-premium window) are explicit, versioned, and reproducible from public Freight Analysis Framework and U.S. Department of Agriculture truck rate data. We develop two full-horizon hindsight ceilings: a simple LP style relaxation and a tighter Lagrangian-per-truck information relaxation that retains per-truck hours-of-service and sequencing structure and is 20.7% tighter than the LP relaxation on a tight-capacity scenario and 39.3% tighter on a scarce-capacity scenario. We introduce a parametric surrogate-rollout cascade with boundary-band and scarcity-pressure escalation triggers. On ten-seed tight and scarce scenarios, the best simple policy retains 91.0% and 86.5% of rollout profit and the standard-library surrogate 94.2% and 89.3%; a cascade at a single escalation band recovers roughly 98% on both at 40-56% of rollout's mean decision latency, and on the tight scenario is statistically indistinguishable from the rollout teacher (paired-bootstrap 95% CI on the profit delta spans zero).

Large language model agents operate in partially observable, long-horizon settings where obtaining supervision remains a major bottleneck. We address this by utilizing a source of supervision overlooked in existing post-training methods: unintended yet successful goals embedded within agent rollouts. Specifically, we introduce Hindsight Supervised Learning (HSL), where an auxiliary LLM reviews each completed trajectory and relabels it with all of the natural-language goals the agent actually achieved. HSL then pairs the trajectory with its relabeled goals and uses these pairs for additional fine-tuning. To mitigate suboptimality in the relabeled data, we propose two learning techniques for HSL, irrelevant-action masking and sample reweighting. Our experiments show that HSL is flexible and compatible with existing post-training pipelines. It improves both SFT and DPO, with larger gains on long-horizon tasks with more diverse goal spaces. Moreover, HSL is sample-efficient: on ALFWorld, it surpasses baselines trained on the full dataset while using only one quarter of the ground-truth demonstrations.

On-policy exploration is a crucial component for training robust Vision-Language Navigation agents, as it exposes the policy to a broader state distribution. However, such exploration inevitably leads to trajectories that deviate from expert demonstrations, resulting in a semantic mismatch between the executed visual stream and the original language instruction. In this work, we address this challenge by introducing Phi-Nav, a unified on-policy framework that leverages hindsight reasoning to align instructions with the agent's actual exploratory journey. Specifically, Phi-Nav operates through a three-stage dual-supervision cycle: 1) the agent performs oracle-guided on-policy exploration, sampling a trajectory while learning from expert action feedback, 2) a hindsight speaker synthesizes a path-level hindsight instruction grounded in the collected visual observations, and 3) the agent conducts a second imitation pass, treating the synthesized trajectory-instruction pair as an additional expert demonstration. Through this process, Phi-Nav bridges the critical semantic supervision gap inherent in on-policy methods, transforming semantically unlabeled movement into dense training signals. Evaluations on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmarks show that Phi-Nav yields competitive performance while requiring only a fraction of the expert demonstrations used by current baselines. These results underscore the necessity of semantic exploration in VLN, positioning Phi-Nav as an effective solution for training embodied agents with limited data.

Multimodal web agents can assist humans in operating repetitive GUI tasks, where effective task planning is essential for decomposing complex tasks into executable actions. While small open source MLLMs are cost efficient and privacy preserving compared with commercial large models, they suffer from weak planning and limited cross website generalization. To address these limitations, we introduce the planning experience exploration and utilization (PEEU) method, which autonomously explores environments to discover experiences and utilizes hindsight experience to synthesize strictly aligned, high level training data. To quantitatively analyze the generalization behaviors driving this performance, we propose the task decomposition hierarchical analysis framework (TDHAF) to systematically study compositional generalization across three task granularities: low, middle and high levels. Our analysis reveals that mastering low level atomic skills does not guarantee high level planning competence, while high level task training yields stronger OOD generalization. Experiments on real world benchmarks demonstrate PEEU's superior effectiveness: our 7B model achieves 30.6% accuracy, outperforming the much larger Qwen2.5-VL-32B model. These demonstrate constructing hindsight high level tasks and leveraging experiences is crucial for OOD planning abilities of small MLLMs.

The rapid advancement of generative models presents a significant challenge to existing deepfake detection methods, particularly given the widespread dissemination of highly realistic AI-generated images. Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) show strong potential for this task, existing approaches suffer from two key limitations: insufficient sensitivity to fine-grained forensic artifacts and reliance on static synthetic supervision from frontier models, leading to limited flexibility and high-cost. To address these issues, we propose ForeAgent, an agentic forensics framework for AI-generated image detection with iterative self-evolution. First, ForeAgent adopts a Perception-Verdict architecture that aggregates multi-view cues spanning semantic, spatial, and frequency-domain features, and leverages an MLLM as a verdict module to fuse these signals for a logical-grounded verdict. Second, to enable continual self-improvement, we introduce a Hindsight-Driven Self-Refining strategy following a Sampling-Reflection-Evolution paradigm. The agent performs inference rollouts on training instances. Guided by ground-truth labels as hindsight, it reflects on failure cases and low-quality reasoning trajectories to regenerate higher-quality reasoning traces. These synthesized samples are then strictly filtered through a dual-expert quality gating module. ForeAgent continuously evolves via fine-tuning on self-curated high-quality samples. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ForeAgent achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Chameleon benchmark, reaching 82.18% accuracy (+16.41% over AIDE), and achieves 93.3% mean accuracy on AIGCDetect-Benchmark across 16 generators. In addition, external evaluation shows that ForeAgent produces more consistent and causally grounded reasoning compared to GPT-5 and GPT-5-mini.

Long-horizon agents rely on memory mechanisms to compress interaction history, but optimizing memory writing faces a distinct credit assignment challenge: a memory update may be rewarded or penalized due to downstream tool failures, noisy observations, or reasoning errors rather than its own contribution. We propose HiMPO, a Hindsight-Informed Memory Policy Optimization framework for assigning less-entangled credit to memory-writing actions in long-horizon agents. HiMPO first estimates the local utility of a memory update by comparing the task-relevant information recoverable from the previous and updated memories under the same pre-write state. It then uses hindsight relevance as a bounded retrospective filter that attenuates memory credit when local utility is not supported by the target outcome. The resulting memory-specific advantage is applied only to memory tokens, while trajectory-level rewards optimize the rest of the agent's behavior. Across judge-based open-domain tasks and objective compressive-memory QA, HiMPO improves over strong memory-based and RL-based baselines while preserving compressed-context efficiency. Controlled interventions and live replay studies further show that HiMPO reduces blame leakage from tool-induced errors, assigns memory credit that aligns with the functional impact of memory writes, and remains robust to noisy training targets.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards assigns a single scalar to each rollout, leaving token-level credit assignment underspecified in long reasoning traces. On-policy self-distillation addresses this by letting the same model act as a teacher conditioned on privileged information, producing a dense per-token signal. But the common choice of a ground-truth answer is only an endpoint cue: on terse-answer tasks, the teacher falls silent at the intermediate positions where path-level guidance matters most. We propose Hindsight Self-Distillation (HSD), which conditions the teacher on a successful peer rollout drawn from the current training group. Such a peer is an exact sample from the success-conditioned policy, requiring no additional sampled rollouts. By providing a full successful continuation rather than only the final answer, the resulting credit signal concentrates at the divergence position between a failed rollout and a successful peer. Across Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-32B on math and code benchmarks, HSD obtains the best result against GRPO variants and on-policy distillation baselines, with the largest gains on terse-answer tasks such as AIME.

Reinforcement learning typically improves multi-turn agent capabilities through the terminal outcome of the trajectories, which makes it difficult to determine credit assignments for each intermediate turns. Recent on-policy self-distillation methods offer a promising alternative by converting privileged feedback into dense token-level supervision through a self-teacher. Our study is motivated by the unexpected performance degradation observed when naively extending this paradigm to multi-turn settings, which we attribute to a lack of alignment between privileged feedback, such as successful trajectories or terminal outcomes, and the student's current decision context. We introduce HERO, a hindsight-enhanced self-distillation framework that uses next environment observations as locally aligned feedback. After each rollout, HERO reflects on the completed interaction to convert each observation into a compact turn-level diagnosis, that captures actionable feedback about the original action such as its necessity, validity or failure cause. On TauBench and WebShop, HERO improves task success and reduces unnecessary turns over environment-feedback-only self-distillation and GRPO. It is especially effective under limited training turn budgets, where successful rollouts are rare and GRPO provides weak reward-contrast signals.

Hindsight relabeling usually turns achieved future states into exact goals, which can overconstrain offline robot learning when task success depends only on a subset of the state. We propose Goal-Set Hindsight Relabeling (GS-HER), a predicate-level generalization of HER in which achieved states certify query-defined goal sets rather than singleton goal states. A binary query specifies which variables define success, making the goal predicate an inference-time input while leaving the underlying offline GCRL algorithm unchanged. Across OGBench tasks and five offline goal-conditioned learners, GS-HER improves performance when full-state goals are bottlenecked by nuisance dimensions and turns hindsight relabeling into a reusable goal interface: one checkpoint can answer multiple robot goal predicates without retraining.

Adaptive context compression is vital for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) to complex, multi-turn agent tasks. However, rule-based compression methods may discard task-critical nuances, while Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches usually struggle to balance information retention and token efficiency under the sparse rewards inherent to long-horizon workflows. To bridge this gap, we propose ZipRL, a novel adaptive compression framework tailored for Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). ZipRL features a multi-granularity compression mechanism for active, non-uniform information reduction, coupled with Hindsight Response Replay (HRR), a technique designed to densify training signals during RLVR optimization. Theoretically, we prove ZipRL's superior task-relevant utility over uniform methods. Concretely, ZipRL utilizes coarse-to-fine prompts for macro-compression and incorporates HRR into GRPO via generalized advantage reshaping. Multiple models of varying versions and parameter scales validate the effectiveness of our approach. Benchmarks on five agent tasks show ZipRL outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by 27.9% and 34.7% across Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B models, while maintaining exceptional token efficiency and robustness under extreme 256-turn extrapolation stress tests.

Reinforcement learning can train LLM agents from sparse task rewards, but long-horizon credit assignment remains challenging: a single success-or-failure signal must be distributed across many actions. Existing methods rely on trajectory-level rewards or proxy signals, without fully leveraging per-step environmental feedback. Multi-turn agent settings are underexplored, where feedback can include error messages, page changes, observations, or reference trajectories. We systematically study five feedback sources and two insertion granularities and introduce SERL, a selective environment-reweighted learning framework. SERL uses the task reward to determine update direction, while environment feedback adjusts placement and magnitude, focusing on critical actions. On ALFWorld and WebShop, SERL achieves 90.0% and 80.1% success, outperforming strong RL and distillation baselines. Analysis shows that grounded, action-relevant feedback at meaningful points consistently outperforms indiscriminate use of longer or richer context.

Training long-horizon LLM agents with reinforcement learning is challenging because sparse outcome rewards reveal whether a task succeeds, but not which intermediate actions caused the outcome or how they should be corrected. Recent methods alleviate this issue by generating rewards or textual hints from turn-level action-output signals, or by using feedback-conditioned self-distillation. However, generating feedback at every turn is inefficient when many intermediate turns are already successful or neutral, and applying feedback at a fixed or misaligned turn often fails to supervise the actions that contributed to the failure. To bridge this gap, we propose HINT-SD, a targeted self-distillation framework that uses full-trajectory hindsight to select failure-relevant actions and applies feedback-conditioned distillation only on targeted action spans. Experiments on BFCL v3 and AppWorld show that our method improves over the dense per-turn feedback baseline by up to 18.80 percent while achieving 2.26$\times$ lower time per training step, suggesting that selecting where to distill is a key factor for both effective and efficient long-horizon agent training.

Solving complex long-horizon tasks requires strong planning and reasoning capabilities. Although datasets with explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) rationales can substantially benefit learning, they are costly to obtain. To address this challenge, we propose Hindsight Hint Distillation (HHD), which only requires easy-to-obtain question-answer pairs without CoT annotations. Inspired by how human teachers use student mistakes to provide targeted guidance, HHD synthesizes hindsight hints from the model's own failed self-rollouts and uses them to scaffold on-policy rollouts that successfully complete the tasks. The model then self-distills these scaffolded trajectories and generalizes to new problems without hint guidance. Experiments show that HHD significantly outperforms iterative RFT and trajectory-synthesis baselines, achieving an absolute improvement of 8% on SWE-bench Verified, while all baselines improve by only around 2%. Notably, the reasoning strategies induced by HHD generalize effectively to out-of-distribution tasks, yielding the largest gains on SWE-bench Multilingual despite no training on multilingual data. These results demonstrate that HHD can effectively synthesize expert-like reasoning from CoT-free data and substantially improve long-horizon performance.

Organizations routinely make strategic budget allocations under operational constraints, but often lack a principled way to assess whether realized allocations were close to the best feasible choices in hindsight. We present a retrospective auditing framework based on hindsight regret, defined as the opportunity cost of the realized allocation relative to a constraint-faithful benchmark under the same budget and stability guardrails. The framework estimates regime-specific spend--response functions from historical logs, computes feasible hindsight allocations via constrained optimization, and propagates uncertainty through Monte Carlo evaluation to produce regret distributions, expected lift, and probability-of-improvement summaries. This separates allocation inefficiency from uncertainty in the estimated response surfaces. Experiments on real marketing allocation logs show that the framework yields interpretable post-hoc diagnostics and reveals a practical trade-off between allocation flexibility and detectability: moderate feasible reallocations often capture most measurable gain, while larger shifts move into weak-support regions with higher uncertainty. The result is a practical method for auditing historical budget decisions when online experimentation is costly or infeasible.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards improves reasoning in large language models, yet on-policy learning often suffers from cold-start challenges in sparse-reward settings. Recent mixed-policy approaches address this by combining off-policy teacher data with on-policy training. However, simply combining these introduce a persistent off-policy gradient mass that risks training collapse and instability. To address this challenge, we propose Hindsight-Anchored Policy Optimization (HAPO), a framework that allows teacher intervention to act as a temporary support. HAPO employs Beta-Binomial confidence gating, an adaptive gating mechanism that decides when to open the gate for teacher intervention. The intervention operates with Synthetic Success Injection, which replaces the group's lowest-reward rollout with a verified teacher trajectory. We also introduce adaptive threshold annealing, which gradually retracts the support and restores on-policy training within a finite horizon to mitigate persistent off-policy drift. We demonstrate that HAPO can be layered on top of existing mixed-policy methods in a generalizable manner. Across six math reasoning benchmarks and two model scales, HAPO improves the average accuracy of three major mixed-policy methods while maintaining training stability.

Distilling reasoning capabilities from Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) into smaller models is typically constrained by the limitations of rejection sampling. Standard methods treat the teacher as a static filter, discarding complex "corner-case" problems where the teacher fails to explore valid solutions independently, thereby creating an artificial "Teacher Ceiling" for the student. In this work, we propose Hindsight Entropy-Assisted Learning (HEAL), an RL-free framework designed to bridge this reasoning gap. Drawing on the educational theory of the Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD), HEAL synergizes three core modules: (1) Guided Entropy-Assisted Repair (GEAR), an active intervention mechanism that detects critical reasoning breakpoints via entropy dynamics and injects targeted hindsight hints to repair broken trajectories; (2) Perplexity-Uncertainty Ratio Estimator (PURE), a ratio-based filtering heuristic that reduces high-anomaly shortcut-like rationales; and (3) Progressive Answer-guided Curriculum Evolution (PACE), a three-stage distillation strategy that organizes training from foundational alignment to hard-case adaptation. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that HEAL significantly outperforms traditional SFT distillation and other baselines.

Knowledge-based Visual Question Answering (KBVQA) necessitates external knowledge incorporation beyond cross-modal understanding. Existing KBVQA methods either utilize implicit knowledge in multimodal large language models via in-context learning or explicit knowledge via retrieval augmented generation. However, their reasoning processes remain implicit, without explicit multi-step trajectories. To address this gap, we propose a Self-Encouraged Hindsight Distillation Reasoning (HinD) framework, aiming at eliciting reasoning ability inside the MLLM by constructing a Hindsight Teacher with privileged information to teach the Foresight Student. First, we construct the Hindsight Teacher by prompting the MLLM with the reasoning target as privileged information to complete the reasoning process, obtaining Hindsight-Zero training data. Then, the Foresight Student, without knowing the answer, learns the golden trajectories from Hindsight in two ways: (1) Hindsight Distillation Fine-Tuning to self-distill the Hindsight-Zero into a modularized Chain-of-Thought Generator and a Knowledge Generator for sequential steps and discrete facts generation, respectively; (2) Knowledge Encouragement Preference Optimization to encourage the under-confident but relevant knowledge inside the MLLM and suppress the over-confident but irrelevant one. Experiments on OK-VQA and A-OKVQA validate the effectiveness of HinD, showing that HinD with 7-8B MLLM achieves superior performance without commercial model APIs or retrieved knowledge.

This paper investigates whether sequential context improves goal-conditioned Reinforcement Learning in sparse-reward manipulation tasks. While Hindsight Experience Replay (HER) addresses reward sparsity through goal relabeling, its operation on isolated transitions limits its ability to capture temporal dependencies inherent in joint-space control. We hypothesize that incorporating motion history can enhance policy learning and introduce CONTHER, which integrates a Transformer-based architecture with a modified HER replay buffer. The Transformer encodes sequences of prior states and goals to provide temporal awareness, while the buffer populates experience with artificially successful trajectories. Two architectural variants are analyzed to examine how contextual information should be integrated. In simulated point-reaching tasks with a UR3 manipulator, CONTHER achieves a 38.46% higher average success rate compared to baselines and outperforms the strongest baseline by 28.21%, with faster convergence and more stable learning. The framework is further evaluated on three dynamic tasks requiring complex trajectory following and obstacle avoidance, where temporal context is critical. By operating directly on joint velocities, the approach provides a foundation for transfer to physical systems. The primary contribution is a systematic investigation into fusing sequential context with goal relabeling, offering insights into how temporal awareness benefits policy learning.