Opinion Dynamics

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Latest papers 59

15 papers in the last four weeks, up 150% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jun 19, 2026cs.GT

Multiscale Exit-Join Dynamics: Tactical Consensus and Strategic Coalition Formation

This paper develops a multiscale model of coalition formation in which strategic exit-and-join decisions are coupled with tactical consensus dynamics inside coalitions. Coalition value is generated endogenously from within-coalition information aggregation, while Aumann-Dreze payoffs, switching frictions, and acceptance rules govern strategic reconfiguration. The framework introduces a fast-slow architecture in which transferable coalition value emerges from DeGroot-style consensus processes, while coalition structures evolve through incentive-driven exit-and-join dynamics. The analysis characterizes joint tactical-strategic equilibria, conditions for tactical and strategic unanimity, segregation, polarization, and cognitive barriers that sustain stable coalition structures. A fixed-point characterization and existence results are established for the coupled dynamics. Numerical experiments reveal an instability-consensus paradox: low or negative switching barriers may prevent strategic convergence while simultaneously promoting temporal mixing sufficient to achieve global tactical consensus. The results provide a unified perspective on coalition formation, consensus dynamics, information aggregation, and strategic stability in multi-agent systems.

Quanyan Zhu

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering New York University Tandon School of Engineering Brooklyn, NY, USA

Cooperative Game Theory Multi-Agent Coordination Opinion Dynamics

Jun 17, 2026cs.AI

Hidden Anchors in Multi-Agent LLM Deliberation

Multi-agent LLM deliberation, where agents exchange and revise answers over several rounds, is increasingly used to improve reasoning and accuracy, yet how and why it works is rarely modelled. Such deliberation mirrors how humans reach decisions. As social animals we are pulled both by the group, the herd effect that classical opinion-dynamics models such as DeGroot and Friedkin--Johnsen capture, and by our own internal belief, which they do not. We model multi-agent deliberation as a closed-loop dynamical system in which each agent carries a hidden internal belief, its anchor, that continually pulls its opinion regardless of its neighbours. We show this anchor can be recovered from the deliberation alone, and that it explains a behaviour classical consensus rules forbid: an agent's confidence in the correct answer can climb past where any agent started, escaping the space (convexhull) formed by the initial beliefs. Checking whether the recovered anchor also predicts held-out runs (generalizes) gives a simple test for when a model is truly driven bysuch an anchor. Across three open-weight model families this is a spectrum, not all-or-nothing. All anchors' influence are about equally strongly, but they differ in where the anchor sits, and only when it sits far from the initial opinions does deliberation escape the hull and need the full closed-loop model.

Apurba Pokharel, Ram Dantu

Department of CSE University of North Texas 76207, Denton, TX, USA

Opinion Dynamics Multi-Agent Debate Multi-Agent Reasoning

Jun 16, 2026cs.AI

Escape from Delusional Echo Trap: Symmetry Breaking, Stochastic Dynamics and Mathematical Mitigation Strategies for Algorithmic Sycophancy

We propose a rigorous and systematic mathematical framework for tracking the cognitive trajectories of a user, in the context of algorithmic sycophancy and AI-driven delusional spiraling. Using tools from dynamical systems theory and stochastic differential equations, we explore how individuals perceive, interpret, and update their beliefs as they interact with AI chatbots that possess hidden traits of sycophancy. We treat the evolving conviction as a continuous log-odds state variable, coupled into a stochastic differential equation, navigating a multi-valley potential energy landscape. Our analysis reveals several critical observations governing the stability and rigidity of belief dynamics. We demonstrate that the baseline prior perception of the individual is systematically enhanced by sycophantic feedback beyond a critical threshold. Here, the perceptual potential landscape undergoes a structural phase transition that severely deepens any incremental initial tilt present in the baseline state, transforming the landscape and giving rise to deep, highly resilient attractor basins that trap the individual in unshakeable, self-reinforcing, delusional convictions. Finally, we demonstrate that genuine external information can successfully challenge these rigid states. If this incoming evidence is strong and authentic enough to overcome the internal feedback barrier, it can correct the structural asymmetry caused by sycophancy, inducing a perception reversal that successfully restores the objective belief state.

Sayantari Ghosh, Saumik Bhattacharya, Partha Pratim Chakrabarti

National Institute of Technology Durgapur, Durgapur, India · Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India

Belief Revision LLM Sycophancy Opinion Dynamics Cognitive Modeling

Jun 5, 2026cs.MA

Modelling Opinion Dynamics at Scale with Deep MARL

Modelling opinion dynamics typically relies on hand-crafted local interaction rules to study emergent macroscopic phenomena such as consensus and polarisation. In contrast, multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) enables agents to learn such behaviours directly by optimising simple rewards. To explore the potential of MARL for opinion dynamics, we introduce a GPU-accelerated consensus and truth-finding game that scales to populations of up to 1000 agents, comparable to many real-world social sub-networks. To prevent unrealistic conventions, we extend other-play to general-sum social interactions. We next validate our model on a subset of the Bluesky network by recovering agent importance structures from graph topology alone via a learned attention layer, finding that highly conforming populations most closely match human data. In large social media networks such high levels of conformity significantly reduce collective accuracy and promote dishonest agents that lie to fit in. By contrast, small, dynamic hunter-gatherer networks are less affected; here, conformity can even improve collective agreement. This suggests a mismatch between evolved human conformity heuristics and modern social media environments as a potential contributor to misinformation.

Lukas Seier, Brandon Kaplowitz, Sebastian Towers +2

FLAIR University of Oxford United Kingdom · OWL University of Oxford United Kingdom · OUCE University of Oxford United Kingdom

Opinion Dynamics Multi-Agent Consensus Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems

Jun 5, 2026cs.MA

Characterizing Opinion Evolution of Networked LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly interact with one another in multi-agent systems, from simulations of human discourse to influence operations and fully LLM-driven social platforms. These interactions give rise to new regimes of opinion propagation that are not yet well understood. We investigate whether classical opinion dynamics models, which have long been used to explain how interactions shape collective beliefs in human societies, can capture the behavior of LLM networks. We find that, while naive averaging-style models fail to track LLMs' opinion dynamics, simple modifications yield substantial gains in modeling fidelity. In particular, bias, an innate opinion toward which agents regress, emerges as a significant driver of LLM opinion dynamics, with its inclusion reducing cumulative estimated mean opinion error by up to 88%. We additionally find that these conclusions generalize across model families, discussion topics, and networks.

Caleb Probine, Yigit Ege Bayiz, Filippos Fotiadis +3

The University of Texas at Austin

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Opinion Dynamics Agent-Based Modeling

Jun 5, 2026cs.MA

Modeling U.S. Attitudes Toward China via an Event-Steered Multi-Agent Simulator

Understanding the dynamic evolution of opinions, such as U.S. public attitudes toward China, is essential for assessing geopolitical risks. However, existing LLM-based multiagent simulators predominantly rely on static rules and fixed datasets, limiting their ability to capture the dynamic, event-driven nature of macro-level opinion shifts in real-world settings. To address this limitation, we propose an Event-Steered Multi-Agent Simulator (ES-MAS), in which significant events and daily news continuously drive opinion evolution through dynamic interactions among agents. We first construct the China-U.S. Relation Evolution (CURE) dataset, covering 20 quarters from 2021 to 2025, including 258 major events and over 14,000 daily news articles, and providing a comprehensive temporal foundation for modeling opinion dynamics. Building upon the CURE dataset, we propose a Dual-Stream Data Integration Engine (DSDIE) that aligns simulations with historical timelines via macro-level events while enabling personalized information exposure based on individual agent profiles and contextual signals. Furthermore, we design a News-Driven Dynamic Interaction (NDDI) module, which adaptively groups agents with shared news interests into localized interaction contexts, facilitating bottom-up consensus formation while mitigating the risk of isolated information cocoons. Experimental results on the CURE dataset demonstrate that ES-MAS substantially outperforms existing simulators in reproducing real-world historical trends, offering a scalable and effective framework for modeling dynamic opinion evolution.

Chenxu Zhu, Hantao Yao, Wu Liu +2

University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), Hefei 230026, China · People.cn, Beijing, China

Opinion Dynamics Human Behavior Simulation Multi-Agent LLMs

Jun 4, 2026cs.SI

Comparing Sentiment Contagion in AI-Agent and Human Social Networks: Evidence from MOLTBOOK

AI agents are beginning to interact not only with people, but also with one another. We investigate what happens to sentiment in such an AI-only social network: does negativity spread, or do replies calm it down? We study MOLTBOOK, a social network made up of autonomous language-model agents, using almost 2.9 million posts and 1.5 million comments. Negative posts receive many more replies than neutral or positive posts, so negativity still attracts attention. However, replies to negative content usually do not stay negative. They most often become neutral, and there is meager evidence that negative sentiment spreads across days. The main pattern is therefore not a cycle of negativity, but negative attention followed by neutralisation. These findings suggest that AI-agent networks may behave differently from human social networks: they may dampen emotional extremes, while still depending strongly on how interactions are organised.

Elyes Ben chaabane, Savindu Herath, Yash Raj Shrestha

UNIL · ETH Zurich

Social Media Analysis Opinion Dynamics Computational Social Science Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation Agentic AI

Jun 3, 2026cs.CL

A Model of Multi-turn Human Persuadability Using Probabilistic Belief Tracing

Large language models can shift human beliefs across high-stakes domains, but most persuasion studies rely on pre/post belief change. These endpoint measures identify whether persuasion occurred, yet miss where and how beliefs moved within a dialogue. We present PERSUASIONTRACE, a framework for studying persuasion in human-LLM interaction. Built on a web-based experimental platform, PERSUASIONTRACE contributes a tool for multi-turn persuasion studies and a process-level evaluation protocol: it records multi-turn belief reports from human or simulated targets of persuasion, annotates persuader turns with rhetorical dimensions (logos/pathos/ethos), and evaluates simulators by fidelity to real human belief dynamics. Using this framework, we find that human targets group into two clusters of multi-turn belief updates and exhibit susceptibility to rhetorical strategies, and that LLMs are persuasive across generic and personalized topics, text and audio modalities, and multi-turn interactions. Prior work has chiefly used vanilla-prompted LLMs to simulate human targets, but we show that these simulators fail to replicate human belief dynamics. We introduce a Bayesian-network simulated target that maintains an explicit latent belief state over time so each persuader message yields cognitively realistic belief updates. In human-likeness evaluation, our Bayesian target scores near a human reference (81 vs 80), while baseline LLM targets score substantially lower (64). PERSUASIONTRACE reframes persuasion evaluation from endpoint movement alone to process fidelity, providing a stronger basis for scientific analysis and safer optimization of persuasive systems.

Jared Moore, Noah Goodman, Nick Haber +1

Stanford University · University of Washington

Opinion Dynamics Human-AI Interaction Persuasion in Language Models

May 27, 2026cs.MA

The incremental voter model: mean-field analysis and convergence to equilibrium

We introduce the incremental voter model (IVM), a discrete-opinion multi-agent system where agents undergo step-wise transitions biased by the opinion of a randomly selected persuader. Our incremental voter model comprises a large population of interacting agents, each holding an opinion represented by an element of the discrete set

\{-k,\ldots,0,\ldots,k\}, k \in \mathbb{N}_{+}

. At each update step as time progresses, a pair of distinct agents are selected independently and uniformly at random from the population, and the first agent (viewed as the listener'') updates its opinion based on that of the second (viewed as the persuader''), adopting a new opinion that differs from its current one by at most one unit. By deriving the mean-field system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that governs the large-population limit of the agent-based model, we develop a rigorous mathematical framework to study the asymptotic behavior of the opinion distribution in the mean-field limit. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of social influence processes in complex systems, particularly in modeling opinion polarization, and may guide the formulation of more advanced models in future research.

Fei Cao, Xiaoqian Gong

Amherst College - Department of Mathematics, Amherst, MA 01002, USA

Opinion Dynamics Computational Social Science Mean-Field Theory Agent-Based Modeling

May 25, 2026cs.MA

Multi-Agent Systems are Mixtures of Experts: Who Becomes an Influencer?

The effectiveness of multi-agent LLM deliberation depends not only on the agents' individual predictions, but also on how they communicate and collaborate. We study this mechanism through the lens of Friedkin-Johnsen (FJ) opinion dynamics, a tractable model for analyzing stubbornness, influence, and opinion change in multi-agent systems that captures empirically observed deliberation patterns. We show that the FJ parameters are input-dependent, turning multi-agent deliberation into a mixture of experts. This perspective implies that multi-agent systems can outperform single agents and static ensembles when routing reflects agent competence. Since competence is latent in practice, we analyze how influence is established through observable proxies: agents' self-assessed confidence, their perceived confidence, and initial alignment with other agents' views.

Franka Bause, Jonas Niederle, Martin Pawelczyk +1

CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Saarbrücken, Germany · Faculty of Computer Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Opinion Dynamics Mixture of Experts Multi-Agent Collaboration Multi-Agent Reasoning

May 19, 2026cs.MA

LLM Agents Make Collective Belief Dynamics Programmable: Challenges and Research Directions

Classical models of opinion dynamics assume human participants with bounded rationality and limited coordination. The rise of LLM-based agents introduces a qualitative shift: agents can now participate in online discussions at scale, maintain consistent persuasion strategies, and coordinate systematically. This paper argues that LLM agents make collective belief dynamics programmable, enabling deliberate steering of population-level beliefs. We term this emerging problem programmable collective belief control. Through controlled multi-agent simulations, we provide proof-of-concept evidence that coordinated AI agents can induce measurable belief shifts that stabilize within a few interaction rounds. We identify four structural properties (indistinguishability, persistence, contextuality, and configurability) that make detection and defense fundamentally difficult. Based on these findings, we outline a research agenda spanning theoretical foundations for adversarial belief dynamics, operational methods for system-level detection and intervention, and simulation infrastructure for scalable experimentation. Our goal is not to present a complete solution, but to articulate why this problem demands urgent attention and to provide a conceptual foundation for future work.

Xin He, Junxi Shen, Yuchen Mou +4

Centre for Frontier AI Research, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore · Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore · College of Design and Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore +1

Opinion Dynamics AI Agent Safety Multi-Agent LLMs

May 15, 2026cs.CY

AI-Mediated Communication Can Steer Collective Opinion

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly integrated into the online platforms where humans exchange opinions; large language models (LLMs) now polish users' posts on LinkedIn and provide context for content shared on X. While prior work has shown that AI can express biased opinions and shape individuals' opinions during human-AI interactions, less attention has been paid to its influence on collective opinion formation when mediating human-to-human communication. We address this gap via a combination of empirical and theoretical analyses. We show empirically that LLMs from multiple popular families introduce directional biases when instructed to edit human-written texts on contested topics, for example, nudging texts in favor of gun control and against atheism. Building on this observation, we introduce a mathematical model of opinion dynamics in which an AI system sits between users on a social network, transforming the opinions they express and perceive. By analytically characterizing the equilibrium of this model and performing simulations on real social network data, we show that biases introduced by AI in human-to-human communication can be amplified through the network and shift collective opinion in their direction. In light of these findings, we investigate whether such biases are controllable by online platforms. We audit the "Explain this post" feature on X and find evidence of pro-life bias in Grok's outputs on abortion-related content, which we trace back to specific design choices. We conclude with a discussion of the broader implications of our findings in relation to ongoing legislative efforts in the European Union.

Stratis Tsirtsis, Kai Rawal, Chris Russell +2

1Hasso Plattner Institute · 2Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford · 3Weizenbaum Institute

Opinion Dynamics LLM Auditing Political Bias in Language Models Language Model Bias Evaluation

May 14, 2026cs.MA

Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model: Supply and Demand as a Sample Path of a Stochastic Process

We introduce the Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model (EDEM), an agent-based framework that treats supply and demand as a coupled stochastic process driven by heterogeneous, noisy agent valuations. The model's primary technical contribution is the identification of a generative mechanism for persistent disequilibrium: when market-clearing prices are sequentially sampled from the upper tail of noisy bid distributions and recycled as inputs for future valuations, expected prices drift upward despite strictly zero-mean estimation errors. We derive this order-statistic bias in closed form for i.i.d. uniform bids and use simulations to show that compounding this bias across epochs yields exponential price growth without requiring assumptions of investor optimism or irrationality. This framework extends Miller's divergence-of-opinion theory to a dynamic setting, recovering Walrasian equilibrium and Miller's static premium as limiting cases. Through controlled experiments and sensitivity analysis on a simulated real-estate neighborhood, we identify six distinct regimes-ranging from band-stability to runaway bubbles-emerging from a single agent ruleset. These results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the empirical divergence-of-opinion literature and suggest that machine-learning valuation algorithms may inadvertently amplify this inherent statistical bias.

Mikhail L. Arbuzov, Sisong Bei, Alexey Shvets

Independent Researcher · Palo Alto Networks

Opinion Dynamics Quantitative Finance Agent-Based Modeling

May 13, 2026cs.AI

ScioMind: Cognitively Grounded Multi-Agent Social Simulation with Anchoring-Based Belief Dynamics and Dynamic Profiles

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent simulation offers a powerful testbed for studying social opinion dynamics. Yet current approaches often adopt two contrasting methods: either relying on fixed update rules with limited cognitive grounding or delegating belief change largely to unconstrained LLM interaction. We introduce ScioMind, a cognitively grounded simulation framework that bridges these paradigms by combining structured opinion dynamics with LLM-based agent reasoning. ScioMind integrates three key components: 1) a memory-anchored belief update rule that modulates susceptibility to influence via personality-conditioned anchoring strength; 2) a hierarchical memory architecture that supports persistent, experience-driven belief formation; and 3) dynamic agent profiles derived from a corpus-grounded retrieval pipeline, enabling heterogeneous personalities, rationales, and evolving internal states. We evaluate ScioMind on multiple case studies in a real-world policy debate scenario. Across metrics including polarisation, diversity, extremization, and trajectory stability, the proposed components consistently yield improvements in behavioural realism. In particular, dynamic profiles increase opinion diversity, memory and reflection reduce unstable oscillation, and anchoring induces persistent belief trajectories that better align with patterns reported in political psychology. These results suggest that our cognitively grounded design provides a novel solution to LLM-based social simulation that improves both stable and behavioural realism

Yitian Yang, Yiqun Duan, Linghan Huang +4

The University of Sydney · Meta

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Opinion Dynamics Cognitive Modeling Personality Modeling in Language Models Human Behavior Simulation Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation+1

May 11, 2026physics.soc-ph

Conformity Generates Collective Misalignment in AI Agents Societies

Artificial intelligence safety research focuses on aligning individual language models with human values, yet deployed AI systems increasingly operate as interacting populations where social influence may override individual alignment. Here we show that populations of individually aligned AI agents can be driven into stable misaligned states through conformity dynamics. Simulating opinion dynamics across nine large language models and one hundred opinion pairs, we find that each agent's behavior is governed by two competing forces: a tendency to follow the majority and an intrinsic bias toward specific positions. Using tools from statistical physics, we derive a quantitative theory that predicts when populations become trapped in long-lived misaligned configurations, and identifies predictable tipping points where small numbers of adversarial agents can irreversibly shift population-level alignment even after manipulation ceases. These results demonstrate that individual-level alignment provides no guarantee of collective safety, calling for evaluation frameworks that account for emergent behavior in AI populations.

Giordano De Marzo, Alessandro Bellina, Claudio Castellano +2

University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany · Centro Ricerche Enrico Fermi, Rome, Italy · Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria +5

Opinion Dynamics AI Agent Safety AI Safety Evaluation Multi-Agent Systems

May 11, 2026cond-mat.stat-mech

Collective Alignment in LLM Multi-Agent Systems: Disentangling Bias from Cooperation via Statistical Physics

We investigate the emergent collective dynamics of LLM-based multi-agent systems on a 2D square lattice and present a model-agnostic statistical-physics method to disentangle social conformity from intrinsic bias, compute critical exponents, and probe the collective behavior and possible phase transitions of multi-agent systems. In our framework, each node of an

L\!\times\!L

lattice hosts an identical LLM agent holding a binary state (

+1

/

-1

, mapped to yes/no) and updating it by querying the model conditioned on the four nearest-neighbor states. The sampler temperature

T

serves as the sole control parameter. Across three open-weight models (llama3.1:8b, phi4-mini:3.8b, mistral:7b), we measure magnetization and susceptibility under a global-flip protocol designed to probe

\mathbb{Z}_2

symmetry. All models display temperature-driven order-disorder crossovers and susceptibility peaks; finite-size scaling on even-

L

lattices yields effective exponents

γ/ν

whose values are model-dependent, close to but incompatible with the 2D Ising universality class (

γ/ν=7/4

). Our method enables the extraction of effective

β

-weighted couplings

\tilde{J}(T)

and fields

\tilde{h}(T)

, which serve as a measure of social conformity and intrinsic bias. In the models we analyzed, we found that collective alignment is dominated by an intrinsic bias (

\tilde{h}\gg\tilde{J}

) rather than by cooperative neighbor coupling, producing field-driven crossovers instead of genuine phase transitions. These effective parameters vary qualitatively across models, providing compact collective-behavior fingerprints for LLM agents and a quantitative diagnostic for the reliability of multi-agent consensus and collective alignment.

Cristiano De Nobili

Critiqality, Milan, Italy

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Multi-Agent Coordination Opinion Dynamics Social Bias in Language Models Phase Transitions Multi-Agent Systems+1

May 8, 2026cs.CL

Change My View? The Dynamics of Persuasion and Polarization in Online Discourse

Philosophical accounts of persuasion often assume that shared evidence and rational argumentation should lead to a convergence of views between peers, yet everyday discourse often suggests otherwise. In this study, we use large language models to analyze a corpus of debates on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, where belief revision is publicly signaled. Large language models were asked, halfway through each discussion, to forecast whether such an acknowledgement would arise; their probabilistic estimates serve as a conversational baseline. Each reply was then coded, through a hybrid machine-assisted procedure, for ten familiar rhetorical strategies -- concession, empathy, logical challenge, credibility appeals, and so forth. Adding these strategic features markedly improves predictive power and yields a consistent pattern: moves that express concession or empathetic alignment substantially increase the prospect of belief change, whereas frontal refutation, credibility attacks, and topic deflection diminish it. The findings indicate that effective public reasoning depends as much on relational framing as on evidential content, and they invite a refinement of normative accounts of rational dialogue.

David Freeborn, Malihe Alikani, Anthony Sicilia

Belief Revision Opinion Dynamics Social Reasoning

May 7, 2026cs.MA

The Cost of Consensus: Malignant Epistemic Herding and Adaptive Gating in Distributed Multi-Agent Search

Distributed agents in real-world settings frequently must coordinate under uncertainty with only partial observations. Coordination is necessary to share beliefs to aid in task completion, but communication costs bandwidth, introduces latency, and if done poorly, can degrade collective reasoning. This tension is especially acute in bandwidth-constrained deployments such as distributed sensing networks, autonomous reconnaissance, and collaborative cyber defense, where excessive transmission carries direct operational costs. Existing work has focused on multi-agent exploration and communication strategies, but not on how communication frequency and content jointly shape the collective belief state. Central to this challenge is the degree to which agents maintain compatible internal beliefs about the environment, a property we term \textit{epistemic alignment}. When agents share beliefs effectively, they converge on correct hypotheses; when communication is poorly designed, agents may converge confidently on wrong ones. We formalize this distinction and show it is not detectable from coordination metrics alone such as Jensen-Shannon Divergence or rate to consensus.

David Farr, Iain Cruickshank, Kate Starbird +1

1*Information School, University of Washington, 1410 NE Campus Parkway, Seattle, 98195, WA, USA. · 2Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue,2026 Pittsburgh, 15213, PA, USA. · 3Human Centered Design Engineering, University of Washington, 1410 NE Campus Parkway, Seattle, 98195, WA, USA. +1

Opinion Dynamics Multi-Agent Systems Multi-Agent Consensus Multi-Agent Communication

May 5, 2026cs.SI

Can LLMs Emulate Human Belief Dynamics?

Can LLMs simulate how humans form and change beliefs in social networks? We put this to the test by replicating an established study on belief dynamics, evaluating 12 LLMs across multiple model families and parameter sizes. The answer is a clear no, and in systematic ways. LLMs fail to capture initial human belief distributions and tend to be overall more conformist than humans, shifting their responses to align with those around them. They also take a nuanced approach to emulating human homophilic tendencies within networks. Our findings carry a double payoff: they highlight fundamental properties of LLM behavior, and they raise a sharp warning against deploying LLMs as human proxies in social simulations.

Adiba Mahbub Proma, Neeley Pate, James N. Druckman +3

Department of Computer Science University of Rochester · Department of Political Science University of Rochester · Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Rochester

Opinion Dynamics Normative Conformity in Language Models Human Behavior Simulation Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

May 1, 2026cs.AI

Position: Safety and Fairness in Agentic AI Depend on Interaction Topology, Not on Model Scale or Alignment

As large language models are increasingly deployed as interacting agents in high-stakes decisions, the AI safety community assumes that safety properties of individual models will compose into safe multi-agent behavior. This position paper argues that this assumption is fundamentally mistaken. In agentic AI, safety is determined by interaction topology, not model weights. When agents deliberate sequentially or aggregate via parallel voting with a judge, the structure of information flow and decision coupling dominates outcomes. Evidence across model families and scales reveals three persistent topology-driven pathologies: ordering instability, where system behavior depends primarily on agent sequence; information cascades, where early judgments propagate regardless of correctness; and functional collapse, where systems satisfy fairness metrics while abandoning meaningful risk discrimination. Contrary to intuition, scaling to more capable models strengthens these effects by increasing consensus formation and reducing the challenge of initial decisions. These failure modes are invisible to model-centric evaluation and alignment procedures. We argue that agentic AI must be treated as a dynamical system rather than a collection of aligned components. Interaction topology must become a primary target of safety evaluation and regulation, with systems required to demonstrate robustness across architectural variations before deployment.

Tanav Singh Bajaj, Nikhil Singh, Karan Anand +1

Department of Computer Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada · Department of Artificial Intelligence, IIT Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India · Amazon, Delhi, India.

Opinion Dynamics AI Agent Safety AI Safety Evaluation Multi-Agent Systems Multi-Agent LLMs

Apr 20, 2026physics.soc-ph

Opinion polarization from compression-based decision making where agents optimize local complexity and global simplicity

Understanding social polarization requires integrating insights from psychology, sociology, and complex systems science. Agent-based modeling provides a natural framework to combine perspectives from different fields and explore how individual cognition shapes collective outcomes. This study introduces a novel agent-based model that integrates two cognitive and social mechanisms: the desire to be unique within a group (optimal distinctiveness theory) and the tendency to simplify complex information (cognitive compression). In the model, virtual agents interact in pairs and decide whether to adopt each other's opinions by balancing two opposing drives: maximizing opinion diversity within their local social group while simplifying the overall opinion landscape, with both evaluated using Shannon entropy. We show that the combination of these mechanisms can reproduce real-world patterns, such as the emergence of distinct heterogeneous opinion clusters. Moreover, unlike many existing models where opinions become fixed once opinion groups form, individuals in our model continue to adjust their opinions after clusters emerge, leading to ongoing variation within and between opinion groups. Computational experiments reveal that polarization emerges when local group sizes are moderate (consistent with Dunbar's number), while smaller groups cause fragmentation and larger ones hinder distinct cluster formation. Higher cognitive compression increases unpredictability, while lower compression produces more consistent group structures. These results demonstrate how simple psychological rules can generate complex, realistic social behavior and advance understanding of polarization in human societies.

Alina Dubovskaya, David J. P. O'Sullivan, Michael Quayle

Centre for Social Issues Research, Department of Psychology, University of Limerick, Limerick, V94 T9PX, Ireland · Mathematics Applications Consortium for Science and Industry (MACSI), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Limerick, Limerick, V94 T9PX, Ireland · Lero, the Research Ireland Centre for Software, University of Limerick, Limerick, V94 T9PX, Ireland

Opinion Dynamics Cognitive Modeling Computational Social Science

Apr 18, 2026cs.AI

LLMs can persuade only psychologically susceptible humans on societal issues, via trust in AI and emotional appeals, amid logical fallacies

Scarce longitudinal evidence examines LLMs' persuasiveness and humanness along time-evolving psychological frameworks. We introduce Talk2AI, a longitudinal framework quantifying psycho-social, reasoning and affective dimensions of LLMs' persuasiveness about polarizing societal topics. In a four-way longitudinal setup, Talk2AI's 770 participants engaged in structured conversations with one of four leading LLMs on topics like climate change, social media misinformation, and math anxiety. This produced 3,080 conversations over 60,000 turns. After each wave, participants reported conviction in their initial topic stance, perceived opinion change, LLM's perceived humanness, a self-donation to the topic and a textual explanation. Feedback time series showed longitudinal inertia in convictions, indicating some human anchoring to initial opinions even after repeated exposure to AI-generated arguments. Interestingly, NLP analyses revealed that both humans and LLMs relied on fallacious reasoning in 1 conversational quip every 6, countering the ``LLMs as superior systems" stereotype behind LLMs' cognitive surrender. LLMs' perceived humanness was most learnable from sociodemographic, psychological and engagement features (

R^2=0.44

), followed by opinion change (

R^2=0.34

), conviction (

R^2=0.26

) and personal endowment (

R^2=0.24

). Crucially, explainable AI (XAI) indicated: (i) the presence of individuals more susceptible to LLM-based opinion changes; (ii) psychological susceptibility to LLM-convincing consisted of having more trust in LLMs, being more agreeable and extraverted and with a higher need for cognition. A multiverse approach with mixed-effects models confirmed XAI results, alongside strong individual differences. Talk2AI provides a grounded framework and evidence for detecting how GenAI can influence human opinions via multiple psycho-social pathways in AI-human digital platforms.

Alexis Carrillo, Salvatore Citraro, Ali Aghazhadeh Ardebili +5

CogNosco Lab, Department of Psychology and Cognitive Science, University of Trento, Rovereto, Italy · Institute of Information Science and Technologies “Alessandro Faedo", National Research Council, Italy · Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA +2

Opinion Dynamics Trust in AI Human-AI Decision Making

Apr 13, 2026cs.SI

Collective Opinion Dynamics in Structured LLM Populations

Large Language Models are increasingly deployed as interacting agents in settings such as online platforms, recommendation systems, and multi-agent applications. Understanding the collective behaviors that emerge from their interactions is therefore increasingly crucial, especially as these behaviors may shape public opinion and contribute to polarization. In this work, we investigate how network structure and group composition shape the evolution of opinions in populations of LLM agents engaged in multi-round debates. We generate networks with controlled levels of homophily and varying group sizes, and perform ten independent runs per configuration. The results show that LLM agents exhibit patterns that are highly sensitive to network structure, relative group sizes, and to the model itself. We highlight that even within LLM populations, low homophily facilitates convergence by increasing opportunities for cross-group interaction, whereas higher homophily limits cross-group exposure and can preserve distinct opinion states, consistent with previous research. We further show that the choice of LLM substantially affects the resulting dynamics, with different models exhibiting different patterns of opinion updating under comparable network conditions. At the individual level, providing agents with information about their local neighborhood further modulates opinion transitions, revealing substantial differences between models in their sensitivity to local social context. Overall, our findings show that the collective dynamics of LLM populations arise from interactions among model-specific behavior, network structure, population composition, and local social information.

Erica Cau, Andrea Failla, Giulio Rossetti

Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa · ISTI-CNR

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Opinion Dynamics Multi-Agent Debate Agent-Based Modeling

Mar 24, 2026cs.AI

Beyond Preset Identities: Selective Stance Accommodation and Interaction Reorganisation in Generative Agent Societies

Generative agent societies simulate people with assigned roles, preferences and relationships. As agents exchange arguments and choose partners, they can revise their positions and reorganise discussion. Understanding these changes requires examining what they accept and how they continue to interact. Stance-change scores and communication totals describe the extent of change. However, the same stance movement can preserve or reverse an assigned preference, and frequent communication can support either agreement or continuing disagreement. We therefore examine the content of changed positions and the exchanges that strengthen particular partnerships. Using Computational Multi-Agent Society Experiments (CMASE), we combine stance measures, source evaluations and temporal networks with individual answers and messages. Study 1 compares seven conditions across ten GPT-4o runs per condition, with a separate interview collection covering four models. Study 2 follows one 75-step GPT-4o café simulation. Environmental rational persuasion yields the largest mean stance departure (

1.30\pm0.08

on a 7-point scale), whereas economic emotional persuasion yields the highest low-trust stance-shift rate (

17.3\%\pm11.2\%

, with standard deviations across runs). In the separate interviews, eight environmental agents shift from 7 to 6, acknowledge economic concerns and rate the source 3. Their partial acceptance preserves the assigned environmental preference. In the café, a pair with zero earlier exchanges becomes the most frequent final-phase partnership, with 25 messages. Its members develop coordination proposals while disputing their implementation. These results show that partial acceptance can coexist with low source trust, and sustained coordination with continuing disagreement.

Hanzhong Zhang, Siyang Song, Jindong Wang

University of Exeter Exeter, UK · William & Mary Williamsburg, VA, USA

Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation Multi-Agent Communication Multi-Agent Systems Opinion Dynamics Computational Social Science

Mar 21, 2026cs.CL

The Hidden Puppet Master: Predicting Human Belief Change in Manipulative LLM Dialogues

As users increasingly turn to LLMs for practical and personal advice, they become vulnerable to subtle steering toward hidden incentives misaligned with their own interests. While existing NLP research has benchmarked manipulation detection, these efforts often rely on simulated debates and remain fundamentally decoupled from actual human belief shifts in real-world scenarios. We introduce PUPPET, a theoretical taxonomy and resource that bridges this gap by focusing on the moral direction of hidden incentives in everyday, advice-giving contexts. We provide an evaluation dataset of N=1,035 human-LLM interactions, where we measure users' belief shifts. Our analysis reveals a critical disconnect in current safety paradigms: while models can be trained to detect manipulative strategies, they do not correlate with the magnitude of resulting belief change. As such, we define the task of belief shift prediction and show that while state-of-the-art LLMs achieve moderate correlation (r=0.3-0.5), they exhibit systematic directional biases, with some models over-predicting and others under-predicting the magnitude of human belief change. This work establishes a theoretically grounded and behaviorally validated foundation for AI social safety efforts by studying incentive-driven manipulation in LLMs during everyday, practical user queries.

Jocelyn Shen, Amina Luvsanchultem, Jessica Kim +6

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Opinion Dynamics Language Model Safety Evaluation Human-AI Interaction

Mar 21, 2026cs.AI

Subjective-Graph LLM Agents for Simulating Uncertainty in Classroom Social Perception

Social actors do not observe a common social world: each individual forms judgments from a partial and potentially distorted view of the surrounding network. We study whether graph-local evidence and credibility-weighted communication can generate persistent distortions in perceived academic standing, even when agents repeatedly receive objective performance signals. We introduce a data-constrained multi-agent framework in which LLM agents operate through individualized subjective graphs that determine peer visibility, evidence access, and interaction opportunities. Agents exchange uncertainty-annotated assessments, evaluate message credibility, and maintain explicit Gaussian belief states updated through Bayesian fusion. We evaluate the framework on 12 middle-school classrooms comprising 482 students, using questionnaire-derived social information and six consecutive examinations. On the Social-Observed subset (n=419), collective ranking error increases from 0.066 \pm 0.008 to 0.124 \pm 0.009 across six epochs despite repeated exam-based anchoring. Ablations associate individualized visibility and LLM-based trust gating with more stable long-horizon behavior, while constrained retrieval primarily safeguards against global-information leakage. Compared with evaluated DeGroot configurations, the proposed framework achieves lower final ranking error; those DeGroot configurations exhibit near-zero terminal opinion diversity. These findings establish subjective-graph LLM agents as a mechanism-oriented framework for data-constrained simulated social perception. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Rashomonomon-0126.

Jinming Yang, Xinyu Jiang, Xinshan Jiao +1

Complex Lab, School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China · Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong · School of Health and Medical Technology, Chengdu Neusoft University, Chengdu,2026 China

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Opinion Dynamics AI in Education Computational Social Science Agent-Based Modeling

Feb 12, 2026eess.SY

Grounded Laplacians of Directed Signed Matrix-Weighted Networks: Spectral Properties and Applications to Non-Trivial Consensus

Grounded Laplacians provide the spectral link between external information and network convergence. This paper establishes positive-stability results for grounded Laplacians in directed signed matrix-weighted networks, where directionality, antagonism, and singular edge weight matrices coexist. First, under in-degree dominance and positive-negative reachability, we derive explicit local thresholds for the grounding gains. Second, a scaled, kernel-based certificate replaces the unscaled degree condition with a signed matrix-weighted Dirichlet decomposition and a joint-kernel test for the scaled symmetric part. The computable margin

γ_p

lower-bounds the minimum real part of the spectrum and certifies exponential contraction in the

P

-norm. Under absolute generalized balance, the kernel-intersection test is given; the balanced and definite-edge unbalanced undirected cases follow. As an application, non-trivial consensus (NTC) on signed matrix-weighted networks is studied. Informed agents, external signals and coupling terms are designed to steer all agents to any prescribed nonzero state without requiring structural balance. Switching topology case retains non-trivial consensus result under certain conditions. Realizing NTC on signed matrix-weighted networks demonstrates that groups with both cooperative and antagonistic multi-dimensional interactions can achieve consensus, which was previously deemed exclusive to fully cooperative groups.

Tianmu Niu, Bing Mao, Hao Liao +2

Multi-Agent Coordination Opinion Dynamics

Jan 20, 2026physics.soc-ph

Generating consensus and dissent on massive discussion platforms with a semantic-vector model

Reaching consensus on massive discussion networks is critical for reducing noise and achieving optimal collective outcomes. However, the natural tendency of humans to preserve their initial ideas constrains the emergence of global solutions. To address this, Collective Intelligence (CI) platforms facilitate the discovery of globally superior solutions. We introduce a dynamical system based on the standard

O(N)

model to drive the aggregation of semantically similar ideas. The system consists of users represented as nodes in a

d=2

lattice with nearest-neighbor interactions, where their ideas are represented by semantic vectors computed with a pretrained embedding model. We analyze the system's equilibrium states as a function of the coupling parameter

β

. Our results show that

β> 0

drives the system toward a ferromagnetic-like phase (global consensus), while

β< 0

induces an antiferromagnetic-like state (maximum dissent), where users maximize semantic distance from their neighbors. This framework offers a controllable method for managing the tradeoff between cohesion and diversity in CI platforms.

A. Ferrer, D. Muñoz-Jordán, A. Rivero +3

Instituto de Biocomputación y Física de Sistemas Complejos (BIFI), Universidad de Zaragoza, 50018 Zaragoza, Spain · Kampal Data Solutions, WTCZ, Avda. Maria Zambrano 31, 50018 Zaragoza, Spain · Departamento de Física Teórica, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain +2

Opinion Dynamics Computational Social Science Multi-Agent Consensus

Aug 24, 2025cs.GT

The price of uncertainty for social consensus

How hard is it to achieve consensus in a social network under uncertainty? In this paper we model this problem as a social graph of agents where each vertex is initially colored red or blue. The goal of the agents is to achieve consensus, which is when the colors of all agents align. Agents attempt to do this locally through steps in which an agent changes their color to the color of the majority of their neighbors. In real life, agents may not know exactly how many of their neighbors are red or blue, which introduces uncertainty into this process. Modeling uncertainty as perturbations of relative magnitude

1+\varepsilon

to these color neighbor counts, we show that even small values of

\varepsilon

greatly hinder the ability to achieve consensus in a social network. We prove theoretically tight upper and lower bounds on the price of uncertainty, a metric defined in previous work by Balcan et al. to quantify the effect of uncertainty in network games.

Yunzhe Bai, Alec Sun

Opinion Dynamics Multi-Agent Consensus Decision-Making under Uncertainty