Parameter Identifiability

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3 papers in the last four weeks, down 50% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 77

Oct 8, 2026cs.AI

LLM-IDEA: Identifiability-Driven Experimental Agent for Autonomous Discovery of Mechanistic World Models

Large language model agents are being increasingly deployed as autonomous scientists, designing experiments and inferring mechanistic world models with minimal human oversight. Yet identifiability is often overlooked: when a plateau is reached, the agent needs to know whether it is not yet capable enough or the model simply is not identifiable from the data, in which case no amount of further experimentation of the same kind can help. We propose the Identifiability-Driven Experimental Agent (LLM-IDEA) for closed-loop discovery with an identifiability engine that returns a three-way plateau verdict: capability limit, resolvable within the design class, or certified exhausted. On ODEBench, 60 of the 62 systems with free constants are identifiable at round 0; the RC circuit is certified exhausted for every experiment that protocol can run, and a harvesting model is resolvable by one added initial condition. The identifiability engine reproduces known verdicts on Lotka-Volterra, Van der Pol, Lorenz, and a pharmacokinetic model, where it recommends the intravenous arm pharmacologists use, and it ranks the depth scorer of our own benchmark last among four observation designs. On the DiscoverPhysics benchmark, it finds two public worlds whose explanation rubric rewards a distinction no legal experiment can make, and every model there with accurate trajectories failed the explanation grade (15 of 15, against 5 of 9 in identifiable worlds, p = 0.012). On the Alien Universe, a two-body testbed we propose in which a force law switches between a provably non-identifiable and an identifiable protocol, LLM-IDEA on the identifiable protocol reaches discovery depth at least three on 8/8 seeds versus 1/8 without it. An autonomous discovery agent can thus compute, rather than guess, whether a plateau calls for more search, a better experiment of the same kind, or a different kind of experiment.

Surya Shetty, Ulisses Braga-Neto

Texas A&M University · Polara Labs Inc.

Autonomous Scientific Discovery Autonomous Experimentation Parameter Identifiability

Oct 7, 2026cs.RO

Informationally Decoupled Trajectory Design for Sim-to-Real System Identification

Sampling-based system identification estimates physically meaningful parameters by tuning a simulator to reproduce the target system dynamics, providing an interpretable approach to improving sim-to-real transfer. Yet when the collected trajectories do not distinguish the effects of different parameters, multiple parameter combinations can reproduce those trajectories, leading to unreliable parameter estimates. To address this challenge, we introduce an Informationally Decoupled Trajectory Design framework (IDTD), which formulates the objective for the exploration policy built on the Schur complement score derived from the Fisher information matrix. To faithfully reflect parameter separability in the exploration objective, IDTD normalizes the score against the per-parameter information, selects the most favorable trajectory segment for each parameter, and aggregates the resulting scores logarithmically. The optimized trajectory is therefore composed of complementary intervals, each exposing a distinct subset of parameters whose contribution to the motion over that interval can be attributed unambiguously. Across diverse simulation environments, ranging from a linear-dynamics system to the Go2 quadruped, G1 humanoid, and Crazyflie quadrotor, IDTD reduces the parameter identification error by 39.6% on average relative to the strongest prior active-exploration baseline and attains improved downstream policy transfer. Furthermore, we validate the proposed trajectory design on a real K1 humanoid, demonstrating that the resulting identified parameters accurately capture the real-system dynamics.

Sangwoo Shin, Ashvin Anilkumar, Ryan Gao +1

University of Wisconsin–Madison

Robot Dynamics Identification Parameter Identifiability Trajectory Optimization Sim-to-Real Transfer

Oct 7, 2026cs.LG

Identifiability of a dissipative knowledge-dynamics model: exact recovery under designed excitation, degeneration on observational data

Human learning is a dissipative dynamical process: mastery accumulates through practice, decays through forgetting, and propagates across interdependent concepts. We model it as a nonlinear dissipative system of ordinary differential equations whose parameters are mechanistically meaningful (a concept-transfer matrix encoding prerequisite coupling, per-concept forgetting rates, and a saturating practice-response gain), and we study when those parameters can actually be recovered from data. We prove a structural identifiability theorem for the associated inverse problem under explicit excitation conditions, with constructive closed-form recovery for the two-concept case, together with monotonicity, robustness and L-stability results. We derive a semi-implicit L-stable scheme for the dissipative subsystem and a batched solver numerically equivalent to the per-trajectory formulation (bit-exact predictions, gradients to

10^{-10}

) yet two orders of magnitude faster, making estimation feasible on cohorts of

10^5

learners. The empirical study is two-sided. Under the theorem's excitation conditions, synthetic recovery is exact: parameters to machine precision, prerequisite structure at

F_1 = 1.0

. On large observational benchmarks it is not. An apparently strong recovery, with forgetting rates correlating with topic difficulty at Spearman

ρ= 0.83

, is refuted by four independent controls: it survives destroying the temporal order of the data, is matched by a classical Bayesian baseline, and is unaffected by removing real timestamps. We trace this to the stationary structure of the model and show that it is the degeneration the theorem predicts in the absence of designed excitation. The result delineates a sharp boundary between identifiable and unidentifiable regimes and yields a validation protocol for interpretability claims.

Arman Kostanian, Armen Beklaryan

Innopolis University, Innopolis, Russia · HSE University, Moscow, Russia

Parameter Identifiability Nonlinear System Identification Dynamical Systems

Oct 6, 2026cs.CC

On the Computational Complexity of Hidden Markov Model Identification

Identification is the task of recovering the parameters of an unknown ground-truth model from sampled data. When parameters other than the ground truth induce the same output distribution, data alone does not provide enough information to recover the ground truth, and the model is thus called unidentifiable. We study the identifiability problem for hidden Markov models (HMMs): given an HMM, is it identifiable? Existing work on HMM identification establishes conditions under which the ground-truth HMM can be identified. However, most of these conditions are sufficient but not necessary, meaning that, when a model does not satisfy them, its identifiability remains inconclusive. We instead take a computational perspective: is there a sound and complete algorithm that decides whether a given HMM is identifiable, and if so, what is the complexity of this decision problem? We consider the decision problems arising from the various notions of identifiability in the literature, including deterministic, generic, global, local, state-permutation- invariant, and finite-alphabet identifiability. We show that all of these problems are decidable in PSPACE, via reductions to the theory of the reals at various levels of its quantifier-alternation hierarchy. We further show that the deterministic variants are already coETR-hard (and hence coNP-hard) for simply parameterized families.

Markel Zubia, Nils Jansen

Ruhr University Bochum · Radboud University Nijmegen

Parameter Identifiability Hidden Markov Models

Oct 5, 2026cs.LG

Inferring physical fields in coupled systems with unknown parameters from incomplete observations using physics-constrained attentive neural operators

Given incomplete measurements of a single physical field in a coupled system with unknown parameters, can we infer its full physical state and identify the underlying parameters? This problem is challenging because multiple coupled fields must be reconstructed simultaneously from limited observations of only one, while the system parameters are unknown. In this work, we propose a machine learning framework for full-field reconstruction and parameter identification of unknown physical systems from sparse observations of a single physical field. Specifically, the cross-attention encoder propagates sparse sensor observations onto a regular grid to construct a sensor-conditioned latent representation, while a Fourier neural operator (FNO) decoder captures global spatial dependencies to reconstruct all coupled physical fields. The network parameters and unknown physical parameters are jointly optimized by minimizing observation losses, governing equation residuals, and boundary/initial condition constraints. The proposed approach is validated on two- and three-dimensional lid-driven cavity flows, a two-dimensional cylinder wake, and a two-dimensional non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics problem, demonstrating the recovery performance of unobserved fields and physical parameters from incomplete observations.

Shilun Wei, Xiaoqiang Sun, Wei Li +1

School of Mathematics, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China · School of Sciences, Great Bay University, Dongguan, China · John Hopcroft Center for Computer Science, School of Computer Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China

Parameter Identifiability Physics-Informed Neural Operators PDE Inverse Problems Inverse Problems

Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

On Parameters of Nonlinear Scalar Dynamics from Video: Invariants, Calibration, and Identifiability

Physical parameter estimation from video aims to recover the parameters of a known family of governing dynamical equations from pixel observations. Existing identifiability theory for this setting has focused on linear time-invariant (LTI) second-order systems, leaving open what can be identified for nonlinear scalar dynamics. We develop an identifiability theory for nonlinear scalar second-order ODEs, organized by how their velocity dependence interacts with changes of the learned state coordinate. Under a shared non-collapsed state map and explicit same-state velocity-coverage conditions, we show that parameter identifiability depends on the ODE family: some parameters are uniquely identifiable, while in other families only invariant parameter combinations are identifiable or external physical calibration is required. For laws that are at most linear in velocity, compatibility forces affine coordinate alignment, yielding explicit parameter relations, invariants, and calibration conditions. This affine conclusion extends to broader finite velocity-feature families when coordinate curvature can be separated from the declared velocity dependence. For families admitting a squared-velocity term, nonlinear coordinate ambiguity can remain; a law-derived normalization instead enables affine comparison between canonical laws. Experiments on synthetic systems and real pendulum and free-fall videos support the predicted parameter relations, coverage effects, and calibration requirements.

Wenjie Wang, Yuanyuan Wang, Zixiang Jiang +2

University of Melbourne · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence · Carnegie Mellon University

Parameter Estimation Parameter Identifiability Nonlinear System Identification Physical Reasoning in Video

Sep 20, 2026cs.LG

Blind Thermodynamic Ontology Discovery from Anonymous Experiments

Before a machine learning model can learn a thermodynamic equation of state, it must discover what its measurements represent: which channels scale with system size, which are intensive conjugates, how sectors pair through contact, and which potential governs stability. When sensors expose only an unknown linear mixture of extensive states and intensive responses, passive observations cannot disentangle physical quantities from coordinate artifacts. We formulate the problem of discovering this hidden thermodynamic ontology directly from anonymous controlled experiments. We present an operational identifiability theory and a constructive polynomial-time algorithm that extracts extensive and intensive scaling sectors from replication contrasts, recovers their dual cotangent pairing from thermal contact and reciprocity, verifies a globally admissible concave potential via discrete cyclic concavity, and determines an invariant matroid of reservoir ensembles. We prove that the residual observational equivalence is strictly (x, lambda) ~ (A x, a A^{-T} lambda + beta), establishing the sharp observational limit that no permitted experiment can break. Blind evaluations on van der Waals fluids and Curie-Weiss magnets confirm robust recovery under ill-conditioned mixing, correctly resolving anonymous Maxwell tie-lines while rejecting non-equilibrium continuations. External validation across six real fluids from the NIST WebBook demonstrates that operational ontology discovery transfers across real physical substances without coordinate leakage.

Linzhe Zhang, Changming Xu

Graduate School, Northeastern University.

Parameter Identifiability System Identification Ontology Learning

Sep 17, 2026cs.LG

One Intervention per Component is Enough: Towards Identifiability in Linear Stochastic Dynamics from Steady State

We study the problem of recovering the parameters of a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process from steady-state observational and interventional data. In many applications, such as large-scale gene perturbation experiments, only stationary "snapshot" measurements are available, making standard stochastic differential equation estimation methods that rely on time-series trajectories inapplicable. We first establish an identifiability result: one intervention per strongly connected component (SCC) of the drift graph suffices to recover all OU process parameters generically up to a global scaling factor. This holds provided that the SCC condensation graph is connected with a single root and certain spectral nondegeneracy assumptions hold. We propose a recursive learning algorithm that orders SCCs topologically and, for each component, isolates its marginal dynamics and solves a linear system derived from the steady-state moment equations, leveraging parameters recovered for upstream components. Building on this theoretical foundation, we propose a regularized least-squares estimator that jointly minimizes residuals of the steady-state mean and covariance equations across observational and interventional data. Experimental results validate our theoretical findings in recovering parameters of the underlying OU process.

Saber Salehkaleybar

Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science, Leiden University, The Netherlands

Parameter Estimation Stochastic Differential Equations Stochastic Linear Dynamical Systems Parameter Identifiability Causal Identifiability System Identification

Sep 2, 2026cs.RO

Contact-Constrained Lower-Limb Joint-Offset Calibration for Humanoid Robots

Accurate joint encoder offsets are essential for kinematic consistency in humanoid lower limbs, yet existing calibration methods typically require external motion-capture systems or fiducial targets. We present a self-contained calibration framework exploiting only onboard joint encoders and a pelvis-mounted IMU during static double-support contact. The inter-foot transform from forward kinematics must stay constant when both feet are fixed; minimizing its posture-dependent dispersion yields a nonlinear least-squares problem over the 12-dimensional offset vector. A Hessian eigenstructure analysis shows that parallel pitch axes induce a rotational coupling. Orientation residuals then observe only the pitch-offset sum, while translation and posture diversity set the remaining numerical observability. For the A3 pitch-to-roll-to-yaw ordering, hip-roll and hip-yaw excitation reduce hip-pitch coupling. A standing-posture knee prior then anchors the remaining weak pitch-chain decomposition. Simulation and real-machine injection tests show consistent recovery, and on held-out recordings calibration reduces foot-height RMS residuals from 4.26 to 2.20 mm on A3 and from 8.03 to 1.43 mm on A2. An independent LiDAR-inertial reference checks the pitch-coupled channel. Removing an injected pitch offset moves the leg-odometry vertical drift back toward the LiDAR trajectory. A few static double-support stances thus provide contact-consistent corrections for well-excited directions. Individual offsets in the weak pitch chain remain prior-dependent.

Kaixiang Lu, Haiyu Lan, Chunxiao Qiao +5

AGIBOT

Model Calibration Humanoid Robotics Parameter Identifiability

Sep 1, 2026cs.LG

Multi-Head Self Attention is a Parameter Identification Mechanism

We prove that a multi-head scaled dot product attention can be viewed as a parameter identification strategy. The ratio of unidentified parameters to the total number of parameters scales like the reciprocal of the number of heads (

1/2 \to 1/(2H)

), meaning models with more heads are structurally more identified. A subtle side effect of the mathematics observation that attention can never be fully identified. Similarly we also show that some bias terms can have no effect on softmax-based attention layers in both the single- and multiple-head settings, though this is mostly a curiosity that should have a marginal effect on model size and model training/prediction efficiency. We also touch on modern improvements to transformers including RoPE and GQA from this perspective, illustrating how those as well can improve the ratio of

meaningful'' parameters to all parameters. Simple numerical examples demonstrate that training can indeed involve updates that overlap model-invariant subspaces that arise from a lack of identification. As part of our experiments we use a

rebalancing'' approach that can ``fix'' updates that overlap unindentified subspaces but do not try to present evidence this should actually be adopted. Instead we simply view our numerical results as exploring and confirming the theoretical results. As a whole we discuss a purely mathematical/statistical explanation, identification, for why specific architectural choices in transformers may have improved performance.

W. Ross Morrow

Softmax Attention Parameter Identifiability Self-Attention Multi-Head Attention

Aug 13, 2026math.ST

Foundations of Independent Component Analysis

We present the mathematical foundations of linear independent component analysis (ICA) models based on standard literature in a self-contained note. It is aimed at readers with a background in measure-theoretic probability theory. We first develop the theory of the characteristic functions of probability measures on

\mathbb{R}^d

, including their analyticity and the way in which they determine and characterise the distributions. We then focus on several identifiability results of ICA models with successively strengthened assumptions on the sources: from merely non-constant, to non-Gaussian, to Gaussian-free independent sources. Under the strictest assumptions, we show that the independent sources are identifiable up to translation, permutation, scales and signs, and this even in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we present the online equivariant gradient descent ICA algorithm for recovering the independent sources from data, in the standard complete noiseless non-Gaussian ICA setting.

Patrick Forré

AI4Science Lab Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics University of Amsterdam

Parameter Identifiability Independent Component Analysis

Aug 13, 2026stat.ML

Sinkhorn Linearization and the Spectral Proxy: Unifying the Statistical and Algorithmic Theory of Feature-Parameterized Inverse Optimal Transport via a Single Spectral Sandwich

We develop the statistical and algorithmic theory of inverse optimal transport (IOT) under the feature-parameterized cost C_theta(i,j) = -theta^T phi(i,j). The core technical contribution is the Sinkhorn linearization -- the implicit-function sensitivity of the entropic OT plan to the cost -- together with its spectral proxy, a formula that is spectrally exact yet geometrically transparent. The restricted Hessian on the tangent space satisfies the spectral sandwich (pi_min/epsilon) I <= H_T^{-1} <= (pi_max/epsilon) I, yielding the single core bound sigma_min >= (pi_min/(a_max epsilon)) sqrt(lambda_min(Sigma)) that drives the entire theory. On this core we establish four theorems and one observation. T1 (identifiability): theta is globally injective on the quotient of the gauge kernel, with dimension bound F <= (K-1)^2. T2 (sparsistency): the l1-penalized estimator recovers the true support under irrepresentability and score concentration, with exponential failure probability. T3 (well-posedness): the feature-moment map M(theta) = Phi^T x_theta is strongly monotone, and the inverse is Lipschitz with constant L <= epsilon ||Phi^T S_a||_op / (pi_min lambda_min(Sigma)). T4 (convergence): local strong convexity with mu >= pi_min^2 lambda_min(Sigma) / epsilon^2 guarantees monotone gradient descent convergence. O5 (misspecification): the estimator converges to the OT-model projection of the truth; the Holder continuity of the projection map is assessed numerically, yielding setting-dependent empirical exponents alpha_eff in (0,1).

Han Dong, Jiaming Li, Yongqiang Gong +2

School of Medicine, Nankai University · College of Artificial Intelligence, Nankai University

Inverse Optimal Transport Parameter Identifiability Optimal Transport

Aug 11, 2026stat.ME

When Is a General Factor Distinguishable? Non-Proportionality, Stable Structure, and the Bifactor Decision

Whether an additional general dimension is necessary beyond correlated first-order factors is a property of the population covariance matrix, not of any estimator or design. This research establishes when that property can be decided. Where the general and group loadings are proportional within every cluster the bifactor structure is covariance-equivalent to correlated factors, so no sample size separates them (Proposition 1); where that proportionality fails in every cluster, three items per cluster and some mild regularities leave no

K

-factor model with diagonal uniquenesses able to reproduce the covariance matrix (Theorem 1); and between them lies a mixed boundary, located numerically here and turning on cluster resistance. Distinguishability is therefore graded, measured by the population distance to the

K

-factor class. Because that question is conditional on a first-order structure which is itself uncertain, a two-step procedure is developed within partially exploratory factor analysis, delivering a structure only when it reproduces across adjacent counts and treating non-delivery as legitimate. Simulation shows that a unanimous count can accompany a structure that fails to reproduce, and that absorbed local dependence can imitate a general factor, the error growing with sample size while stability indicators stay clean. Four empirical datasets illustrate the possible outcomes.

Jinsong Chen

Faculty of Education, The University of Hong Kong

Latent Variable Models Parameter Identifiability Dimensionality Reduction

Aug 10, 2026cs.LG

Intrinsic Structure: Spectral Identifiability for Mechanistic Interpretability

Mechanistic interpretability explains models by identifying circuits inside them, but has no way to tell whether a circuit is a property of the model or an artifact of the method that found it. Sparse autoencoders illustrate the problem: different seeds and widths recover materially different features from the same activations, and no theory says whether that variability is incidental or structural. We put dictionary learning for interpretability on an identifiability footing. Treating the forward pass as a controlled dynamical system with depth as time and lifting it with the Koopman operator yields a finite linear realisation whose \emph{spectrum} is a coordinate-free property of the model. We prove the spectrum is recoverable from

M

calibration samples at rate

M^{-1/2}

up to permutation - to our knowledge the first identifiability theorem for a mechanistic-interpretability primitive, with a matching minimax lower bound, a median-of-means variant for heavy-tailed activations, and a dissociation theorem: whenever the realisation is non-normal, the directions carrying activation variance and the directions carrying information across depth cannot coincide. The identifiable object and the legible object are not the same object. On GPT-2 small, Gemma-2-2B and Qwen3-8B-Base the spectrum converges everywhere and attains the predicted exponent on Qwen3-8B-Base (

0.506 \pm 0.031

); shortfalls collapse onto one curve against each cell's sample threshold. Koopman modes beat random directions but lose to principal components on indirect-object identification, with the gap decaying

4.1\times

in depth-distance, as the theorem predicts. The Koopman spectrum is an identifiable, model-intrinsic fingerprint with a stated error bar, not a legible decomposition.

Ashim Dhor, Pin-Yu Chen

1IISER Bhopal · 2IBM Research

Representation Identifiability Parameter Identifiability LLM Interpretability Mechanistic Interpretability

Aug 4, 2026cs.LG

Wrong Operator or Blind Design? A Reference-Free Diagnostic for Physics-Informed Coefficient Learning

Physics-informed neural networks and hybrid models infer PDE coefficients from noisy data. When a trained network returns one, no standard check says whether to trust it. We show what those checks report when the operator is wrong: one sensor aggregating several diffusion sources. On one parabolic benchmark at

2\%

noise, the in-domain error is

1.4

times the noise while the identified diffusivity settles

30\%

off. Every least-squares minimiser reaches that value, which drifts

27\%

across windows; the network, whose objective is composite, settles

1.3\%

away. The checks stay as silent when the design is blind to a rate of a richer operator, though the remedies are opposite. We develop a reference-free diagnostic, read in the physical parameter, not the weights, without retraining the network: an information-matrix test on the residuals, a heterogeneity statistic across window refits, and a Fisher-rank statistic on the design at the rates the single fit postulates. On the analytic head the specification test holds its pre-registered ceiling and rejects every misspecified replicate of both benchmark configurations, with a notch against a missing reaction term. The rank statistic is exactly zero only where the design is blind; a wrong operator confined to that mode leaves the specification test mute, and the rank statistic says so before any fit. The window reading exceeds its ceiling by one seed in thirty. A network frozen at its minimum returns the same verdicts; one stopped short rejects as a wrong operator would.

Eric Fock

PIMENT Laboratory, Universit´e de La R´eunion, Le Tampon 97430, La R´eunion, France

Parameter Estimation Parameter Identifiability Model Misspecification Physics-Informed ML PDE Inverse Problems

Jul 31, 2026cs.LG

A Physics-Chemistry-Informed Neural Network (PCINN) for Real-Time Spatial-ALD Coverage Prediction and Reliable Kinetics Inversion

Spatial atomic layer deposition (SALD) is a leading atmospheric-pressure, high-throughput route to industrial ALD, but design and control are limited by the cost of predicting surface coverage: high-fidelity CFD is far too slow for operating-window scans, while analytic models miss transport modulation such as the gas curtain. We present a physics-chemistry-informed neural network (PCINN), a hybrid surrogate with CFD-level accuracy at real-time speed: a query returns coverage in about 7 ms, roughly 5x10^4 times faster than a CFD solve, reaching a test R^2_log = 0.998 (leave-one-out R^2_raw = 0.974) from only 30 training cases spanning four orders of magnitude in coverage. The architecture is not a black box: a small network learns only the operating-condition to near-wall concentration closure, while the known surface kinetics is a hard-coded, trainable chemistry layer integrated along the substrate trajectory. This single-scalar bottleneck keeps it accurate under sparse data, interpretable and invertible. We add a full identifiability analysis (Fisher information, profile likelihood). The adsorption energy E_ads and desorption rate k_des are robustly identifiable; k_ads is not separately identifiable at a single temperature (only k_ads*c_wall is). Across four temperatures the prefactor nu and E_ads bind along a weakly identifiable degeneracy valley of slope 0.065 eV/decade, derived analytically as k_B T_eff ln(10) and turned into a reliability diagnostic: a seven-chemistry mismatch matrix shows it is invariant under any single-Arrhenius mismatch and shifts only when a second thermally activated process appears, so a slope departure flags unmodelled site heterogeneity. Data come from simulation with known ground truth inverted by the same kinetic form, so the study verifies pipeline self-consistency and the identifiability boundary, not real parameters.

Ning Hu, Chang Liu, Yunlei Jiang +1

School of Mechanical Engineering, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China · Information Engineering School, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China

Neural Surrogate Modeling Parameter Identifiability Semiconductor Manufacturing Model Calibration Physics-Informed ML

Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

Sparsity Induced Identifiability in Matrix Tri-Factorisation

Matrix factorisation is a fundamental tool for exploiting low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional data, with applications such as data compression, denoising, structure discovery, interpretable representation learning, and dimensionality reduction. Compared to conventional two-factor models, matrix tri-factorisation provides greater modelling flexibility, while sparsity constraints often improve both interpretability and recovery performance. Although the role of sparsity has been extensively studied for two-factor matrix factorisation, rigorous theoretical guarantees for general real-valued matrix tri-factorisation remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we establish, to the best of our knowledge, the first rigorous theoretical study for sparsity-induced identifiability in general real-valued matrix tri-factorisation. Our analysis is enabled by a novel decomposition strategy that transforms the original problem into two coupled auxiliary factorisation problems, while preserving the structural information necessary to the recovery of the original factor matrices from the observations. Building upon this decomposition, we derive recovery guarantees and structural consistency results that characterise how coefficient sparsity influences the sufficient recovery conditions, convergence behaviour, spectral approximation error, high-probability bounds, and structure preservation. Comprehensive Monte Carlo experiments validate the proposed theory and demonstrate close agreement between the theoretical results and empirical observations.

Tingting Mu

Department of Computer Science University of Manchester Manchester M13 9PL, UK

Parameter Identifiability Matrix Factorization

Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

What Can Latent World Models Know? Physical Parameter Identifiability in Multimodal Predictive Representations

A central premise of latent world models is that predicting the future forces a representation to internalize the physics of its environment. Which physical quantities does a trained latent actually contain, and what decides this? We answer with controlled interventions in POKEWORLD, an interactive environment whose visually identical objects hide mass, drag, and contact stiffness. A certificate-gated protocol first certifies each parameter as recoverable from raw observations, then measures whether it enters the latent, so a null result can be attributed to the objective rather than to the environment. The resulting identifiability map has two organizing mechanisms and one frontier. Inputs limit what can be known, while prediction targets decide what is retained. Stiffness enters the latent only when touch is forecast (

R^2=0.50

, compared with

-0.02

when the same signal is merely fused into the input), and under single-step prediction a vision-only latent discards even perfectly visible object state. Drag marks the frontier. It carries a recoverability certificate of 0.89 yet plateaus near 0.13 under every deterministic prediction objective we test, while a supervised head on the same trunk reaches 0.45. Parameters whose readout is slow and ratio-type under the sensed coordinates fall outside what these objectives acquire. On RH20T, an input-target factorial across scaling curves reproduces both mechanisms across two robots and 4,258 episodes. Every arm missing information or prediction pressure stays flat over a fivefold data range, and only the full multimodal objective forecasts force beyond a persistence baseline, with held-out gains that grow with scale. Objective structure determines which physical parameters a latent acquires, and additional data improves only the parameters it already acquires.

Kaizhen Tan, Xin Xu, Siru Tao +4

New York University, New York, NY, USA · Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA · Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

Parameter Identifiability Predictive Representation Learning Latent World Models Multimodal Learning

Jul 29, 2026cs.NE

Shared Symbolic Backbones for Physically Consistent Multi-Output Symbolic Regression

Symbolic regression provides analytical expressions, but it is usually applied one output at a time. This is limiting in process systems, where state variables are often coupled through shared physical parameters. Independent symbolic regression can give accurate individual equations that are difficult to interpret as one model. We present a neuro-evolutionary symbolic regression method for coupled multi-output systems. The method searches for a shared symbolic backbone: a set of latent symbolic units that is discovered once and reused by several outputs through sparse additive or multiplicative read-outs. The discrete model structure is evolved by mutation and crossover, whereas the continuous parameters are tuned by gradient descent and inherited by the offspring. The method is assessed on a set of benchmarks with known ground truth and on a hydrothermal liquefaction yield case. The results show that coupling is not a general route to lower prediction error. Its main contribution is the enforcement and diagnosis of cross-output consistency when a physically shared factor is embedded in a latent expression and is weakly identifiable from the data. This occurs for Langmuir-Hinshelwood and site-coverage denominators, for which independent PySR does not close the consistency gap or recover the same shared form. Conversely, when each output is already identifiable, as in the Van de Vusse benchmark, independent symbolic regression matches or improves the coupled model. The proposed framework, rather than a general purpose predictor, is a structured shared-mechanism extractor. Its value is highest when the target structure is sparse, shared, weakly identifiable or constrained by closure.

Manuel Rodriguez

Chemical and Environmental Engineering Department. Universidad Politecnica de Madrid

Parameter Identifiability Nonlinear System Identification Symbolic Regression

Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling

Regional surveillance data reflect local transmission, reporting, seeding, and external infection pressure, which are difficult to identify separately. We introduce GeoID-PINN, a physics-informed neural network (PINN) for susceptible-infectious-recovered-deceased (SIRD) dynamics. The model represents spatial dependence with a row-stochastic source-composition matrix whose rows assign nonnegative source weights that sum to one. We regularize this matrix toward a spatial prior constructed from distance, adjacency, commuting, or lead-lag information. In a four-region simulation with known truth, a compatible distance prior gives source-composition error 0.099. The error rises to 0.159 without regularization and 0.577 under a strongly misspecified prior, while trajectory fit and transmission-scale estimates remain similar. Accurate trajectories therefore do not guarantee recovery of the regional dependence structure. We also evaluate GeoID-PINN retrospectively using COVID-19 data from 64 Louisiana counties. Relative to an autoregressive negative-binomial baseline, Forecast-Trained Geo-PINN reduces mean squared error (MSE) from 32,957 to 11,468 and mean absolute error (MAE) from 70.60 to 57.73. The baseline has lower negative log likelihood (NLL), 5.158 versus 5.346, indicating better distributional fit but worse point accuracy. In a controlled 15-county comparison, county adjacency reduces MSE by 6.85 percent and MAE by 3.1 percent. Similar performance across plausible priors supports structured regularization but not unique edge recovery. These results require prior-sensitivity and observation-model checks before interpretation.

Weixiong Hua, Fan Bu

Department of Biostatistics · University of Michigan · Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Epidemic Forecasting Parameter Identifiability Physics-Informed ML

Jul 25, 2026eess.SP

Identifiability-Aware Source Apportionment in City-Scale Advection-Diffusion Systems

Source apportionment from sparse urban air-quality sensors is an inverse problem limited by sensor placement, wind-driven transport, background variation, and noise. Known or proxy emission inventories make attribution meaningful by restricting the unknown source field to a finite set of candidate groups, but do not guarantee those groups are distinguishable from the observations. We represent time-varying source activity with a low-dimensional nonnegative temporal basis and formulate inventory-based apportionment as a wind-conditioned lagged inverse problem in which each source--basis coefficient produces a sensor-time fingerprint. After projecting out a separate low-dimensional background space, the relevant object is the projected lagged response matrix

\widetilde H_Φ

: exact identifiability at the chosen basis resolution requires its full column rank, while noise-robust attribution is controlled by its singular values, coefficient visibility, background absorption, pairwise coherence, and ray distance. We propose an identifiability-aware apportionment (IASA) framework that estimates nonnegative source--basis coefficients, reconstructs activity trajectories, and reports uncertainty and conservative grouping recommendations for indistinguishable sources. We instantiate it on a New Delhi platform built from government PM

_{2.5}

and wind records, regulatory sensor locations, and four proxy source groups, and define controlled and observed evaluations of recovery, ambiguity, wind diversity, background stress, transport error, inventory robustness, and residual adequacy. IASA reports the attribution resolution defensible under the declared inventories, transport, background, lag, and noise rather than the most detailed possible vector.

Ankit Bhardwaj, Lakshminarayanan Subramanian

Department of Computer Science, New York University

Parameter Identifiability Inverse Problems

Jul 25, 2026stat.ML

Beyond ICA: Identifiability by Symmetry Breaking

We prove the identifiability of deep generative models (DGMs) with piecewise-affine (PWA) decoders and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) priors, in a purely unsupervised setting. We introduce three algebraic contrast principles for symmetry breaking: domain contrast, which trivializes the mixture symmetry group; mechanism contrast, which ensures every decoder branch is witnessed by a unique boundary; and interaction contrast, which forbids parameter conspiracies between latent components and decoder branches. Together they exploit the interplay between the discrete combinatorics of the PWA map and the continuous symmetry structure of the latent GMM. Continuity is replaced by algebraic symmetry conditions; injectivity is decoupled from structural identification and required only for pointwise inversion. Our results form a hierarchy: from law identifiability (LID; latent distribution up to a global affine map) through map identifiability (MID; decoder up to the same map) to posterior and pointwise identifiability. The ICA-form ambiguity emerges under conditions on diagonal component covariances. Assumptions are only on the data-generating process, not on learning methods, except for the interaction contrast. To our knowledge this is the first to make algebraic symmetry-breaking the engine of nonlinear identifiability, the first to admit discontinuous decoders, and the first to handle fully non-injective decoders, where every observation admits multiple latent codes.

Pengzhou Wu

SANKEN, University of Osaka

Latent Variable Models Representation Identifiability Parameter Identifiability Symmetry Breaking

Jul 24, 2026cs.LG

On the Identifiability of Controlled World Models

World model serves as a promising tool to infer environment dynamics under high-dimensional observations and candidate actions. Recently, LeCun's JEPA provides a compelling framework for learning such models in representation space. Its action-conditioned extension plays a central role in visual control and latent-space planning, but leaves a fundamental question: can it recover the controlled dynamics from nonlinear observations? This paper presents a joint identifiability condition for controlled world models with Gaussian latent states, which consists of two coupled components: (1) representation identifiability and (2) transition identifiability. The former depends on the spectral separation property while the latter is related to non-degenerate variation of conditional action. We prove that when this condition holds, minimizing the LeJEPA-style predictive objective can recover both latent states and controlled dynamics in the sense of orthogonal transformation. We further prove that the upper bound of transition prediction error is inversely proportional to the spectral separation margin. We also characterize an attainable amplification of counterfactual prediction error that scales inversely with the weakest conditional action-excitation margin. The theoretical predictions are empirically supported across four nonlinear observation settings.

Xiangteng Zhang, Yang Guan, Bo Zhang +3

School of Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University · 2Didi Voyager Labs, Didi Autonomous Driving · School of Computing and Data Science, The University of Hong Kong +2

Parameter Identifiability Latent Dynamics Modeling Action-Conditioned World Models State Representation Learning

Jul 21, 2026cs.LG

Functional Equivalence and Geometric Diversity in Neural Network Approximations: An Empirical Characterization

The Universal Approximation Theorem states that a neural network with a single hidden layer is sufficient to approximate any continuous univariate function on a compact domain to arbitrary error. However, the uniqueness of such neural network representations is not guaranteed, raising questions about practical identifiability. In this work, we address this concern by analyzing functional equivalence and geometric diversity of neural network approximations to a few elementary mathematical functions. The analysis includes an extensive study of single-layer neural networks and multilayer perceptrons under noisy and noise-free conditions. Beyond just network capacity, we study the geometric properties through the lens of sloppiness, characterized by the eigen spectrum of the Hessian of the cost function and the effective rank to quantify the dimensionality of parameter space. The study reveals large equivalence classes of functionally indistinguishable yet geometrically diverse networks that consistently exhibit low effective rank and structural redundancy. Finally, a model select criterion is proposed for identifying optimal models based on parsimony, ease of estimation, and inference efficiency.

Anuragine S A, Prem Jagadeesan

Amrita School of Artificial Intelligence Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Coimbatore, India

Multilayer Perceptrons Neural Representation Geometry Parameter Identifiability Neural Network Approximation Theory

Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

The Dynamics of Discoverability: How Trajectories and Priors Shape Equation Recovery

How the dynamical regime of the observed system affects equation discovery has mainly been investigated through comparisons across systems. However, such comparisons vary both the equations and the dynamics, confounding the effect of the regime with the difficulty of recovering the equations symbolically. We separate the two by varying the forcing of Lorenz-84, moving its fully observed post-transient trajectories through fixed-point, periodic, and chaotic regimes while preserving the equations' functional form. Within each regime, we separately vary the amount of data, the noise, and prior knowledge of which terms the equations contain. We then measure how well two complementary approaches, sparse regression over a fixed library of candidate functions (SINDy) and an evolutionary search over symbolic expression trees (PySR), recover the true equations' terms and coefficients. We find that recovery depends on whether the sampled states distinguish combinations of candidate functions: equations remain poorly recovered from fixed-point data even when the candidate set contains only the true terms. We link the effect of the dynamics on both algorithms to one object: the moment matrix of the candidate functions under the invariant measure of the regime. Small eigenvalues mark weakly distinguishable combinations of candidate functions: we show that more data, less noise, and more prior knowledge can mitigate the resulting recovery difficulties, while a zero eigenvalue makes distinct equations indistinguishable on the visited states. Hence, a more precise prior needs less informative data, with consequences for data collection, method design, and evaluation.

Matteo Gallo, Fabio Anselmi, Paolo Lazzari

University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy · National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - OGS, Trieste, Italy · NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy

Dynamical Systems Parameter Identifiability Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics Scientific Discovery ODE Discovery Symbolic Regression

Jul 17, 2026math.NA

A zero-one law for one-shot system identification

Can a model be identified from one experiment? We study analytic systems that are linearly parameterized by a combination of prescribed dictionary terms, such as partial differential operators and dynamical systems. For a single input-response pair, recovery is possible exactly when the evaluated dictionary terms are linearly independent. We prove a sharp zero-one law: either no input uniquely determines the coefficients, or almost every random input sampled from a nondegenerate Gaussian measure does. This dichotomy reduces one-shot system identification to a question about degenerate inputs and provides an a posteriori certificate for any recovered model. Numerical examples recover dynamical systems, nonlinear partial differential equations, and structured matrix families from single trajectory data, while also detecting when an extra probe is necessary.

Nicolas Boullé, Diana Halikias, Samuel E. Otto +1

Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK · Courant Institute, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA · Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA +1

Parameter Identifiability PDE Discovery System Identification

Jul 12, 2026math.NA

When is the combined load identifiable from a stress-intensity profile? A coupled forward-inverse study on SIFBench finite-element data

This work studies the inverse problem of recovering the relative magnitudes of the tension, bending, and bearing loads acting on a crack from its stress-intensity-factor profile along the crack front, using the public SIFBench finite-element data. The central claim is not forensic load recovery on field cases, but a rigorous characterization of when the combined load is identifiable at all, together with an estimator that returns calibrated uncertainty precisely in the regimes where it is not. For a known geometry the forward map from loads to profile is exactly linear, and identifiability reduces to a single geometric question: whether the three elementary load profiles are linearly independent as functions along the front. When they are nearly dependent, many different load combinations produce almost the same profile and the inverse problem is illposed; the analysis shows that the degree of ill-posedness is controlled by an intrinsic stability margin, not by the conditioning number alone. A single crack-front operator serves both as a structured forward surrogate and as the differentiable map required by a simplex-constrained, set-valued inverse estimator. On the SIFBench corner-crack scenario the empirical behaviour matches the theory: the typical geometry is well posed while a sizable minority is genuinely ill-posed, so a point estimate is reliable on the majority and provably uninformative on the rest. Validation is on controlled synthetic noise; no real fracture cases are used or claimed.

Giansalvo Cirrincione, Filippo Grassia

Laboratory of Innovative Technologies (LTI, EA 3899), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, 80025, France

Parameter Identifiability Uncertainty Quantification Structural Mechanics Inverse Problems

Jul 8, 2026econ.EM

Sensitivity to Subjective Expected Utility Maximization: A Methodological Study, with an Illustrative Application to LLM Decision-Making

Evaluating decisions made under uncertainty is hard when labeled outcomes are scarce, costly, or confounded with luck. We treat subjective expected utility (SEU) maximization as a stated standard and define a graded measure -- SEU sensitivity -- of an agent's conformity to it. The vehicle is a softmax choice model with a sensitivity parameter

α

on SEU-valued alternatives; the contribution is a sequence of identifiability results for

α

and for belief and utility parameters

(β, δ)

, validated in Stan via prior predictive checks, parameter recovery, and simulation-based calibration (SBC), with finite-sample caveats intact. In the uncertain-choice-only model

m_0

,

α

is identifiable given the expected-utility vector

η

and sharply recovered, while

(β, δ)

are only weakly informed: the posterior barely contracts and concentrates on a

β

-

δ

trade-off. In the extended model

m_1

,

δ

becomes identifiable in principle via a

β

-free risky block, but its practical recovery gain at realistic sample sizes is negligible (matched-count CI-width reduction under 1%), and that block yields no detected

α

-precision gain at matched choice count. These are two distinct phenomena: for

δ

, identifiability does not imply precise estimability at realistic

n

; for

α

, identifiability is silent about what governs finite-

n

precision. Marginal SBC passes for both models even where the joint posterior is weakly informed -- a demarcation we make precise. A two-by-two application (GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, each on insurance-claims triage and Ellsberg-style urns, with sampling temperature as the lever) runs end-to-end on real LLM choice data, detecting a structured comparative

α

effect in two of four cells.

Jeff Helzner

Parameter Estimation Parameter Identifiability Discrete Choice Modeling Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Jul 7, 2026cs.LG

No Subspace to Track: Non-Identifiability and Optimizer State in Low-Rank Training

Memory-efficient optimizers such as GaLore train large language models by projecting gradients onto a rank-r subspace recomputed every T steps, assuming this subspace is a slowly drifting object that can be tracked. We show that beyond a small reproducible core, there is no such object. Two estimates of the top-r subspace computed at the same step from disjoint minibatches disagree as much as estimates computed T steps apart (0.73 vs 0.74 of the maximal chordal distance sqrt(2r), at Pythia-160M with r=128): the apparent rotation at each refresh is dominated by estimator noise. This holds across four model families in three architecture classes from 70M to 6.9B parameters, strengthening with scale, and more weakly in a vision transformer. Only ~39 of 128 directions are reproducible across minibatches, and averaging cannot recover the rest: under N-fold averaging the gradient's spectral tail shrinks as N^(-1/4) rather than the N^(-1/2) of pure noise, so no averaging budget makes the subspace well defined. What helps instead follows from treating each refresh as a change of coordinates for Adam's state. Carrying the second moment blindly is provably about (r-k*)/2 worse than the best rotation-blind estimator, while the first moment transports exactly through the rotation, the optimal linear map under isotropic gradients and the rule LDAdam uses. At 1B over 40k steps (3 seeds), full LDAdam reaches 18.7 perplexity at beta2=0.999, beating untransported GaLore after its best beta2 fix (19.3); shortening the second-moment memory to beta2=0.99 helps the refreshing optimizers, though for canonical GaLore the effect is small and a full-rank control reverses it. One measurable fact, subspace non-identifiability, clarifies why GaLore works, which patches work, and what to check before trusting a low-rank assumption: the reproducible rank k*.

Noel Thomas

Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence

Deep Learning Optimization Parameter Identifiability Low-Rank Approximation LLM Training

Jul 4, 2026cs.RO

Lost in Time? Continuous Symmetry and Identifiability in Aided Inertial Navigation with Unknown Measurement Delays

In many multisensor systems, measurements from different sensors are subject to unknown relative time delays. Accurate state estimation requires that delays be accounted for and, when possible, calibrated online. We consider the case of aided navigation, where measurements from a single aiding sensor are subject to an unknown but constant delay relative to the inertial measurement stream, and study the identifiability of the resulting system. Critically, identifiability depends not only on the temporal structure of the measurements, but also on the shape of the vehicle trajectory: some trajectories are sufficiently informative to support unique recovery of the delay and the navigation state, while others are not. Using the special Galilean group, we characterize these uninformative (or degenerate) trajectories and relate them to a continuous symmetry of the delayed measurement model, providing geometric insight into identifiability failures. We show that the class of trajectories for which identifiability fails is larger than previously reported, and connect our characterization to the familiar linearized, Jacobian-based analysis. Although our development is motivated by aided navigation, the underlying ideas apply more broadly to estimation problems on Lie groups with delayed measurements.

Jonathan Kelly, Phone Thiha Kyaw, Mattew Giamou

Space & Terrestrial Autonomous Robotic Systems (STARS) Laboratory at the University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies (UTIAS), Toronto, Canada. · Autonomous Robotics & Convex Optimization (ARCO) Laboratory in the Department of Computing and Software, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.

Parameter Identifiability Robot State Estimation Inertial Navigation