Posterior Sampling

Generative models are increasingly used to solve scientific inverse problems, but existing evaluations still focus primarily on whether a method can produce a single plausible reconstruction. This is insufficient for ill-posed problems, where multiple solutions may be consistent with the same sparse or noisy observations. In these settings, a method can achieve strong pointwise accuracy while still failing to capture the true posterior through mode collapse, overconfident uncertainty, or averaging incompatible solutions. We introduce PosteriorBench, a benchmark for evaluating the distributional accuracy of generative inverse solvers. PosteriorBench evaluates four physics-based inverse problems: Darcy flow inversion, Poisson source recovery, carbon capture and storage, and light transport material inference. For each task, we construct high-fidelity reference posteriors using computationally heavy but established procedures such as rejection sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo, enabling direct assessment of whether solvers recover the full set of solutions rather than the single best sample. We pair these references with a five-metric posterior evaluation suite: posterior-mean error, posterior-standard-deviation error, maximum mean discrepancy, sliced Wasserstein distance, and radially averaged power-spectrum error. These metrics assess pointwise accuracy, marginal uncertainty, distributional alignment, and global frequency fidelity. The benchmark spans sparse sensing, low-resolution observations, nonlinear forward models, varying noise levels, and multimodal priors, with a unified pipeline for distribution matching and uncertainty quantification. Our experiments reveal substantial distribution-matching gaps across current solvers, while showing that neural operators improve resolution robustness, and guidance weights and generation noise are key to posterior-variance calibration.

Flow matching has emerged as the state-of-the-art generative model and has been used for plug-and-play (PnP) priors to solve inverse problems in computational imaging. However, existing flow-based inverse solvers assume linear forward models and/or make simplifying approximations in posterior sampling. To circumvent these problems, we introduce FlowSGS, a flow-based posterior sampling method using Split Gibbs Sampling (SGS) to decompose the posterior into a likelihood step and a prior step. Specifically, we sample from the likelihood step using Langevin dynamics and leverage the Stochastic Interpolants (SI) framework to integrate a pretrained flow model into the prior step. We provide a form for the prior step that uses SI's reverse-time SDE, and show connections to previous PnP methods. Moreover, with the aid of the flow prior's straight probability paths and a novel timestep correction technique for the reverse-time SDE, FlowSGS requires fewer network evaluations in its prior step than plug-and-play diffusion samplers. Our experiments show state-of-the-art performance on a range of inverse problems. For the first time, we provide an experiment on a nonlinear inverse problem (Fourier phase retrieval) for flow-based inverse solvers.

Bayesian quantum tomography requires efficient inference while preserving a posterior fixed by the prior and Born likelihood. Learned transport provides fast amortized samples, but reward tuning can reshape the generated distribution rather than improve exploration of this fixed target. We introduce GRPO-QPS, a target-preserving framework in which GRPO learns proposal behavior and an exact Metropolis correction preserves the posterior after training. Across the evaluated reconstruction benchmarks, GRPO-QPS improves over BuresTomFlow and Flow-GRPO on thermal, cat, Dicke, and cluster families, and it closely matches an exact two-qubit reference posterior. Tuned conventional MCMC is slightly stronger on several original continuous benchmarks where the available fixed proposals already match the posterior geometry well. To test whether this reflects a fundamental limitation of learned exploration, we evaluate a more challenging multimodal thermal posterior. At six qubits and 800 shots, the learned proposal achieves a minimum effective sample size of 102 per $1{,}000$ likelihood calls, compared with 28 for prior independence, 27 for a tuned fixed mixture, and 20 for Haario adaptive Metropolis. A record-conditioned policy also transfers to unseen 3,000-shot records, matching or exceeding the strongest conventional baseline in all nine held-out seed-record comparisons. These results show that GRPO-QPS combines target-preserving Bayesian inference with broad gains over learned transport baselines and a sampling advantage when efficient exploration requires proposal geometry beyond the evaluated conventional kernels.

This paper addresses infinite-dimensional Bayesian inference for inverse problem of partial differential equations with model parameters in infinite-dimensional Hilbert space. To effectively incorporate prior information, we propose a novel continuous normalizing flows based infinite-dimensional model. Specifically, by introducing a well-defined neural ordinary differential equation in infinite-dimensional space, a simple reference measure can be transformed into a more complex measure which encodes the prior information. A corresponding theoretical framework is established to ensure the well-posedness of our proposed Bayesian prior in infinite-dimensional space. We also provide training methods of the prior for two distinct data settings, along with two sampling algorithms for the resulting Bayesian posterior. The proposed framework is applied to three representative inverse problems: the simple smooth inverse problem, inverse scattering problem, and the inverse heat conduction problem. Numerical experiments support the theoretical analysis and demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.

Data assimilation (DA) uses Bayesian inference to update the state of a numerical forecast model with observed data. In this study, we propose a fundamentally different, unified approach to atmospheric data assimilation. We use latent video flow-matching to sample temporally consistent trajectories from a prior trained using ERA5 reanalysis (69 variables over an 8-day window). We also use posterior sampling to assimilate real observation sources, such as those from the NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive and the Integrated Surface Database. Because the prior generates a continuous trajectory, it naturally propagates information between observed and unobserved frames. Therefore, we can perform various DA tasks, such as filtering and smoothing, simply by changing the observed frames. Moreover, we generate full-state ensemble forecasts directly from sparse observations, achieving performance competitive with state-of-the-art observation-to-forecast models.

Latent Flow Models have revolutionized compressed-space image synthesis, yet their application to high-fidelity inverse problems remains bottlenecked. In this paper, we trace this dilemma to a fundamental geometric limitation of pre-trained autoencoders, which we term \emph{First-Order Manifold Blindness}. Severe decoder compression (e.g., retaining only $\sim\!2\%$ of the original degrees of freedom) produces a rank-deficient Jacobian, rendering high-frequency measurement residuals in its orthogonal complement invisible to latent gradients even when the decoder can represent the target image. To overcome this bottleneck, we propose Hybrid-Domain Posterior Sampling (HDPS), a decoupled inference framework that disentangles physical measurement consistency from semantic prior modeling. HDPS diverges into the pixel space, leveraging Langevin dynamics to absorb precise orthogonal measurement gradients, and subsequently projects these structural corrections back onto the generative manifold. An optimization-based latent alignment is introduced to filter pixel-space artifacts while avoiding the semantic drift of direct encoding. Extensive experiments on diverse inverse problems demonstrate that HDPS establishes a new state-of-the-art, successfully recovering the high-frequency structural precision that latent-only solvers inherently discard. The code is available at \href{https://github.com/74587887/HDPS}{https://github.com/74587887/HDPS}.

Modeling galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lenses to infer the brightness of the source galaxy and the mass distribution of the foreground galaxy is computationally challenging, particularly for high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio observations. In this regime, high-dimensional representations of both the source and the foreground mass distribution are necessary to model the data down to the noise level. This inference problem has been challenging for both traditional and machine learning-based methods because of its high dimensionality and its non-linearity in the foreground mass distribution. We present a method to generate joint posterior samples of the source galaxy and foreground mass distribution as pixelated images conditioned on observations. The method combines diffusion-based generative modeling and recurrent inference machines. It can model realistic gravitational lensing simulations with background and foreground galaxies drawn from cosmological hydrodynamical simulations down to the noise level.

Diffusion-based methods have achieved remarkable empirical success in solving inverse problems. However, many existing posterior samplers either lack rigorous theoretical guarantees or incur substantial computational overhead. We propose a simple and efficient algorithm, called \pddim, for solving linear inverse problems with diffusion priors via a DDIM-type sampler. Our method requires only lightweight, coordinate-wise modifications to the standard DDIM update, while explicitly incorporating the measurement model. The key idea is to perform posterior sampling separately along each singular direction of the measurement operator: for each direction, the sampler follows the learned diffusion prior when the observation signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is below the corresponding diffusion SNR, and switches to a calibrated measurement-based predictor otherwise. We prove that the proposed sampler converges to the Bayesian posterior conditioned on the measurements. Empirical results show that the proposed sampler performs favorably against existing diffusion-based posterior samplers across a range of image restoration tasks, achieving the best performance on the majority of evaluation metrics considered. Overall, our results convert posterior sampling for noisy linear inverse problems to simple coordinate-wise DDIM updates, yielding an efficient, easy-to-implement algorithm with provable posterior consistency.

SWITi is a test-time method for reducing artifacts in tiled predictions, particularly for neural networks that learn posterior distributions from which solutions are sampled at inference time. Tiled predictions are unavoidable for large image data, and artifacts arise whenever tiles are smaller than a network's receptive field and when tiles are independent posterior samples. SWITi averages overlapping sliding-window predictions, so discrepancies between neighboring samples are spread across shifted tile positions rather than accumulating at fixed seam coordinates. For posterior models, SWITi uses no more tile samples than an MMSE estimate requires and therefore incurs no additional forward passes. Additionally, we introduce two reference-free metrics, the Fraction of Rejected Tests (FRT) and Artifact Severity (ASV), for detecting and quantifying tiling artifacts from a per-tile permutation test that compares the distribution of pixel gradients across tile seams against the surrounding image content. On pre-trained and published image splitting models across three fluorescence microscopy datasets in 2D and 3D, we show that SWITi substantially attenuates stitching seams while also improving reconstruction fidelity and resolution. Since tiling artifacts in posterior predictions can easily be mistaken for biological structures or for boundaries between biological structures, removing or reducing them using SWITi will improve the downstream processing of large image predictions, which is particularly relevant for biomedical data.

Magnetic resonance imaging comes in various modality contrasts that provide complementary anatomical and pathological information. Complete multimodal acquisitions are often unavailable due to time and protocol constraints. This leads to real-world datasets with missing modalities, where conventional medical image translation methods are typically limited to fixed source-target settings or require retraining for each observed source-target pair. We propose a unified framework that formulates missing-modality generation as a linear inverse problem under a joint distribution and solves it via posterior sampling with a flow matching model. By learning a joint prior over the complete modality set, our method can reconstruct arbitrary missing modalities at inference time by guiding the sampling trajectory to enforce measurement consistency with observed modalities. We further mitigate inter-modality error propagation in multi-target generation by adopting a many-to-one sampling strategy. Experiments on BraTS and IXI datasets show that our method achieves the best performance over baselines across most missing-modality scenarios. In downstream tumor segmentation, synthesized images from our method result in higher segmentation performance, indicating better preservation of clinically relevant structures.

Prompt optimization adapts large language models (LLMs) without updating model parameters, but many automatic prompt optimizers remain heuristic search procedures over candidate instructions. This paper studies prompt optimization as Bayesian posterior sampling over discrete prompt tokens. We define a posterior distribution by combining a task likelihood term, which rewards prompts that explain input-output examples, with a language-model prior, which favors fluent instructions. This converts prompt optimization into an energy-based posterior sampling problem, for which gradients can be used to guide discrete Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) proposals over vocabulary tokens. We refer to our framework as BayesPO, short for Bayesian Prompt Optimization. In this paper, BayesPO is instantiated with Markov chain Monte Carlo: it uses a Metropolis-Hastings corrected Gibbs-with-Langevin (GwL) proposal and integrates parallel tempering for global exploration of rugged LLM-induced energy landscapes. The concrete sampler further adapts the GwL sampler to the practical constraints of non-weight-tied LLM embeddings. Experiments with Qwen2.5 models show that the sampler discovers semantically meaningful prompts on diagnostic tasks, that parallel tempering helps escape a local optimum in a poetry completion task, and that post-optimizing APE prompts on 24 instruction-induction subtasks improves average accuracy from 60.04% to 63.23%. The study also reveals two main limitations: energy minimization may overfit small optimization sets, and the current sampler remains computationally expensive. These findings position Bayesian prompt sampling as a principled post-optimization tool and point to a promising direction for probabilistic prompt optimization.

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is critical for scientific discovery, with generative models offering a promising path toward efficient inference. However, existing methods struggle with effective multimodal modeling. They often rely on brute-force fusion strategies that ignore the structural disparities between parameters and observations, thus limiting estimation fidelity. In this work, we introduce FUSE (Feynman-Kac steered mUlti-modal flow matching for efficient Simulation-based posterior Estimation). Unlike prior work, FUSE employs a dual-track architecture that preserves the distinct features of multimodal inputs while facilitating dynamic interaction. Additionally, we propose an FK-steered sampling strategy that leverages intermediate observation likelihoods to guide the generative trajectories, effectively improving the sample quality during inference. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on standard SBI benchmarks, producing posteriors that closely match ground-truth MCMC. Furthermore, in a real-world exoplanet orbital estimation task, FUSE successfully resolves complex parameter degeneracies that challenge existing methods, highlighting its potential to accelerate complex scientific discoveries in astrophysics and beyond.

Data assimilation models state dynamics conditioned on sequential observations, and has wide-ranging scientific applications. In the filtering setting, the goal is to model the posterior over the current state given all observations so far. Classical solutions typically make simplifying distributional or functional assumptions, e.g., linear-Gaussian systems, which can be inaccurate in many scenarios. In principle, particle filters (PFs) remove these assumptions, yet often collapse in high dimensions. Recent generative approaches learn conditional state transitions, but without principled Bayesian updates they do not recover the correct filtering posterior and can accumulate error over long horizons. In this work, we introduce Flow Proposal Particle Filters (FPPF), which learn a conditional generative model based proposal approximating the variance-minimizing optimal proposal for particle propagation. Conditioning on observations steers particles toward high-likelihood regions before weighting, reducing weight variance and delaying degeneracy. Since our proposal admits tractable likelihood evaluation, FPPF computes accurate importance weights and retains a Bayesian update step. We further extend FPPF to high-dimensional problems through localization strategies, adressing another standard PF failure mode. Extensive experiments on a variety of dynamical systems show that FPPF outperforms statistical baselines and other generative methods in non-linear, non-Gaussian, and high-dimensional regimes.

Quantile regression aims to estimate the conditional quantiles of a response variable from observed data. In a Bayesian setting, Gaussian process quantile regression provides uncertainty quantification but faces significant computational challenges due to the nonconjugacy of the asymmetric Laplace likelihood and the cost of posterior inference. We develop a sparse Gaussian process framework in which the quantile function is represented through a reduced set of inducing variables and posterior inference is performed using a Laplace approximation. A decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into conditional-prior and posterior-induced variance components is then exploited to drive two complementary adaptive mechanisms: inducing-input infilling and data acquisition. These mechanisms are combined within a sequential algorithm that allocates computational effort toward the dominant source of predictive uncertainty and adaptively controls model complexity. Numerical experiments on benchmark problems demonstrate the accuracy of the Laplace approximation, the benefits of variance-based inducing-input placement, and the effectiveness of the proposed sequential enrichment strategy compared with predefined data-acquisition strategies.

Diffusion posterior samplers for accelerated MRI can reconstruct accurately yet still disagree on the acquired k-space across samples, placing posterior variability on coefficients the scanner has already measured. We identify this measured-subspace leakage as a physical-admissibility failure. Under a hard-constraint model it violates the measurement constraint and inflates the reported uncertainty with disagreement about coefficients the scanner has already determined. To quantify this leakage, we introduce complementary measured- and unmeasured-subspace k-space dispersion metrics (MSD/USD). We then present Measured-Subspace Consistency (MSC), a training-free terminal correction that wraps any compatible image-space posterior sampler with a standard multi-coil consistency lock. The ideal lock follows classical range/null-space data consistency. Our contribution is to repurpose it as a black-box posterior audit and correction rather than a new reconstructor or learned sampler. Theoretically, we prove that the ideal transform confines pairwise sample differences to the MRI null space and bound the residual cross-subspace coupling left by practical sensitivity-weighted implementations. Across six base samplers and two MRI anatomies, including out-of-distribution transfer where a knee prior reconstructs brain, MSC substantially reduces measured-subspace dispersion for Soft samplers (a median 16.5x reduction for DPS across five brain contrasts, up to ~29x), while preserving unmeasured-subspace diversity and acting as a near-identity map for Consistent ones. Furthermore, MSC maintains or modestly improves PSNR/SSIM, with no retraining, retuning, or significant computational overhead.

Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models. Both fully Bayesian and bootstrap resampling methods provide principled uncertainty estimates but are often too expensive for modern machine-learning models because they require posterior sampling or repeated model refitting. We introduce Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty. Ribbon replaces repeated refitting with an influence-function linearization around a single fitted model, preserving the first-order data-reweighting structure of the Bayesian bootstrap while requiring only post-hoc linear algebra. Ribbon approximates the Bayesian-bootstrap or weighted-likelihood-bootstrap refitting target. With a general concentration parameter, Ribbon gives a calibrated Dirichlet-reweighting family whose uncertainty scale can be tuned on validation data. We show that Ribbon is asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification and recovers the robust sandwich covariance under misspecification. Across synthetic regression, MNIST classification, and California Housing benchmarks, Ribbon provides competitive predictive performance and improved calibration in several settings while avoiding repeated model retraining.

We propose latent-space diffusion posterior sampling (L-DPS), an approximate Bayesian framework for high-dimensional inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The method addresses three challenges in PDE-constrained inversion: implicit sample-based priors without tractable densities, high-dimensional spatially distributed parameters, and the high cost of repeated forward-model evaluations during posterior sampling. L-DPS combines a variational autoencoder, an unconditional latent diffusion model, diffusion posterior sampling, and a differentiable neural surrogate. The VAE maps the parameter field to a lower-dimensional latent space, the diffusion model learns an implicit prior score in this latent space, and DPS combines this learned prior with likelihood-based guidance. The likelihood gradient is evaluated through the decoder-surrogate composition, avoiding repeated calls to the full numerical PDE solver. We evaluate the method on an inverse Darcy flow problem with an unknown spatially distributed permeability field inferred from sparse and noisy pressure observations. L-DPS produces accurate and robust inverse solutions, reduces inference cost relative to full-space DPS, and outperforms amortized inverse baselines such as conditional latent diffusion and inverse FNO in sparse and noisy regimes. We further compare L-DPS with a KLE-MAP baseline and study mixed-prior generalization and the sensitivity of inversion accuracy to surrogate forward-model error.

A growing family of training-free solvers -- FlowDPS, FLOWER, PnP-Flow and their diffusion ancestors (DPS, DAPS) -- repurpose a pretrained flow-matching prior to solve imaging inverse problems by adding a measurement-guidance term to the deterministic probability-flow ODE. Despite strong empirical results, what these per-step corrections actually approximate -- and how far the resulting samples are from the true posterior $p(x\mid y)$ -- has not been characterized. We give a posterior-transport account of flow-based inverse problem solving. Our starting point is a simple but consequential fact: for a \emph{deterministic} flow prior, Bayesian conditioning is realized entirely by a \emph{reweighting of the source distribution}, not by a drift correction; pushing the reweighted source through the \emph{unmodified} velocity field yields exact posterior samples. From this we show that trajectory-guidance solvers can be read as the minimum-kinetic-energy \emph{correction} field needed to morph the unconditional source into the posterior, and that FlowDPS / FLOWER / PnP-Flow correspond to distinct zeroth-order / Gaussian / proximal approximations of this single object; we bound the resulting posterior bias in Wasserstein distance. A controlled $2$D study with a closed-form posterior confirms the theory decisively: source reweighting matches the true posterior to the Monte-Carlo floor on every metric, whereas trajectory guidance incurs $200$--$800\times$ larger error and collapses posterior modes, \emph{regardless of guidance strength}. Guided by the analysis we propose a cheap, principled velocity-correction solver that is competitive across two in-domain priors (AFHQ, CelebA) and two out-of-distribution settings while, unlike point-estimate source-space optimizers, producing diverse posterior samples with uncertainty that correlates with reconstruction error.

Principled regression for stochastic processes is a long-standing challenge with deep connections to scientific inverse problems. We introduce Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling (FAPS), to our knowledge the first function-space posterior sampling framework that unifies stochastic-process regression and PDE inverse problems. Built on pretrained function-space flow-matching priors, FAPS enables likelihood-guided posterior inference from sparse and noisy observations, supports variable query discretizations, and avoids explicit prior-density evaluation. Its Langevin correction uses a low-rank covariance preconditioner to exploit dominant function-space correlations across discretizations. Across Gaussian and non-Gaussian stochastic-process regression benchmarks and diverse PDE inverse problems, FAPS produces coherent posterior samples with accurate uncertainty quantification, significantly outperforming existing functional regression baselines and achieving competitive or better PDE noisy inverse performance than diffusion-based posterior samplers while reducing test-time sampling cost.

Robots must generate trajectories that remain faithful to learned expert behavior while satisfying safety constraints and task-specific objectives specified only at inference time. We formulate constrained trajectory generation for pretrained diffusion and flow-matching policies as Bayesian posterior sampling, with the learned demonstration distribution as a prior and an inference-time, cost-derived likelihood tilting it toward feasible, optimal trajectories. To sample from this posterior without any retraining of the base policy, we leverage the Feynman--Kac corrector framework, originally formulated for diffusion models, and extend it to deterministic flow-matching policies. The result is a unified, inference-time, retraining-free sampler for diffusion and flow policies. We validate the approach on pretrained Diffusion Policy, GR00T-N1.6, and $π_{0.5}$ checkpoints across simulated and real-world manipulation tasks, including planning around non-convex obstacles introduced at inference time, and show improvements over the base $π_{0.5}$ on zero-shot tasks.

We study the privacy of releasing functional posterior sample paths from a Gaussian process (GP) when the entire training set including covariates and responses is private. Unlike standard differential-privacy (DP) mechanisms that inject external noise, posterior sampling is intrinsically random and we show that this randomness provides useful privacy guarantees. We derive Rényi-DP guarantees separating privacy leakage through the posterior mean from a distinct channel induced by the data-dependent posterior covariance. The analysis identifies effective ridge regularisation and covariance scale as the principal privacy-controlling quantities and yields sharper guarantees in several regimes of practical interest as well as extensions to repeated and adaptive releases. Membership inference attacks confirm the predicted dependence on regularisation, covariance scale and the number of released paths. Utility experiments on downstream posterior sampling tasks identify noisy observation regimes where privacy-compatible regularisation preserves useful samples. Finally we identify large-data asymptotic regime in which the privacy parameter and posterior mean-square risk vanish simultaneously, yielding privacy for free. Together, these results provide a comprehensive characterisation of privacy and utility of GP posterior sampling.

Diffusion and flow-based models learn powerful data priors by training a denoiser to reverse Gaussian corruption. To use this prior to solve a linear inverse problem, one needs to sample from the posterior, but the score that the prior provides is the unconditional score, not the posterior score. Existing methods either steer a fixed pretrained denoiser with approximate measurement-matching corrections, or train a conditional restoration model that abandons the denoising structure of the prior. We derive the exact posterior score in closed form for linear Gaussian inverse problems under general Gaussian interpolants, and show that posterior sampling reduces to a denoising problem at an operator-dependent shifted pivot under an anisotropic noise covariance. We turn this identity into Exact Posterior Score (EPS), a denoising training objective that preserves the input/output structure of standard pretraining and can therefore be trained from scratch or fine-tuned from a pretrained denoiser. At inference, EPS uses the same sampler as the underlying backbone, with no likelihood gradients or projections. We evaluate EPS on five linear inverse problems across FFHQ and ImageNet, where it outperforms training-free and training-based baselines on fidelity, perceptual, and distributional metrics, while using roughly an order of magnitude fewer denoiser evaluations than gradient-based posterior samplers.

Sampling from high-dimensional, non-log-concave distributions with unnormalized densities is a fundamental challenge in machine learning, particularly when the exact gradient of the potential is unavailable and must be approximated via stochastic gradients that exhibit high variance under a fixed budget of gradient computations per iteration. Although variance reduction techniques such as SGD with momentum, STORM, and PAGE have demonstrated improved convergence properties in non-convex optimization, their implications for sampling from non-log-concave distributions remain largely unexplored. In this work, we develop the first unified analysis of these estimators for sampling from non-log-concave distributions. We establish improved non-asymptotic convergence rates in $\varepsilon$-relative Fisher information and, under a Poincaré inequality assumption, in squared total variation distance, and further prove weak convergence to the target distribution. We extend our analysis to solving inverse problems with score-based generative priors. We empirically validate our theory and demonstrate that, under a fixed gradient computations per iteration, variance-reduction techniques consistently improve sample quality in two standard imaging applications.

Bayesian inference for inverse problems is run to evaluate integrals -- posterior expectations, tail probabilities, and risks -- across a stream of observations. The standard estimate averages the integrand over posterior samples, a Monte-Carlo average whose error decays only as the square root of the sample size, so accuracy demands many samples -- prohibitive when each one calls a partial-differential-equation forward model. Mean-shift interacting particles need far fewer: they return a small set of signed-weight nodes -- a deterministic quadrature whose weighted averages estimate those integrals. Finding the nodes, however, is a per-observation optimization that, in its most accurate form, reads the posterior score at every step -- returning the cost it meant to save. We introduce amortized mean-shift interacting particles, a learned map that emits the weighted nodes from an observation and a few posterior samples in a single forward pass. Training asks only for joint parameter-observation samples and a posterior to draw from -- a conditional normalizing flow, an empirical conditional, or any reference the user can sample -- and the map learns to integrate that posterior from samples alone, evaluating neither its density nor its score. Once trained, it generalizes to unseen observations and integrands at any node budget and improves on independent samples in two ways: by reweighting them, provably no worse than the equal weights of Monte-Carlo; and by moving them, which empirically lowers it further. Across closed-form, sampled, learned, and physics-based posteriors -- up to a thousand-coefficient groundwater field -- it integrates more accurately than the same number of samples at every budget, and a posterior-whitened, dimension-aware kernel removes the high-dimensional wall. The result is a Pareto improvement on Monte-Carlo integration, not a competitor to drawing more samples.

This paper reviews how a diverse set of popular data-driven priors commonly used in Bayesian inverse problems can be unified through their respective score functions. By framing these priors under this common perspective, we show that they can benefit from their straightfoward and effective integration into a recently proposed sampling algorithm. The applicability of this common framework is illustrated by considering several data-driven priors, namely regularization-by-denoising, normalizing flow-based priors, score-based generative models, and convex-ridge regularizers. For these four particular priors, the performance of the method is evaluated when conducting image inpainting and single image super-resolution. These results, as well as those obtained when restoring real images acquired in a geological context, demonstrate the efficiency of the method. This unified framework proves versatile enough to handle any posterior distribution defined by a broad class of score function-based priors, beyond the specific cases considered in this paper.

Diffusion models provide expressive data-driven priors for Bayesian inverse problems, but many diffusion posterior samplers rely on heuristic guidance approximations that can fail for nonlinear operators and multimodal posteriors. In this work, we develop a stabilized path-space framework for diffusion-based posterior sampling. Starting from a base diffusion process whose terminal marginal represents the prior, we define a likelihood-weighted target measure on trajectories and cast posterior sampling as learning a controlled stochastic process whose path measure matches this target. This formulation connects diffusion posterior sampling to stochastic optimal control while preserving the Bayesian structure needed for uncertainty quantification. We introduce a time reparameterization that makes the path-space control problem well posed by removing the bias induced by the unknown initial value function, without auxiliary training. We then learn the control via a trust-region path-space optimization method with log-variance objectives. The path-space perspective also unifies our learned control approach with existing guidance-based samplers, quantifies the sampling error induced by approximate controls, and yields importance sampling corrections for asymptotically exact posterior expectations. We evaluate the proposed framework on a suite of benchmark inverse problems with analytically characterized or high-quality reference posteriors, enabling principled assessment of sampling accuracy and uncertainty quantification. These experiments provide insight into the behavior of diffusion-based posterior samplers and demonstrate improved accuracy and robustness over leading approaches.

Recent one-step generative models accelerate sampling by learning deterministic flow maps of the underlying dynamics. These methods rely on learning from ordinary differential equations, leaving open how to define an exact distillation procedure for stochastic dynamics. We introduce the Itô map, an any-step stochastic flow map that takes an intermediate state and Brownian path and predicts future states in a single pass. The Itô map formulation yields novel estimators for inference-time control by providing cheap, differentiable access to posterior samples. Empirically, Itô maps produce diverse, conditionally valid endpoint samples from fixed intermediate states and support strong steering performance on synthetic and image-generation benchmarks. These results establish any-step SDE integration as a useful primitive for posterior sampling and stochastic control.

Generative models -- diffusion and flow matching -- are increasingly used to solve partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems, enforcing the governing physics as a \emph{hard constraint} (via projection or guidance) and reporting the resulting samples as a Bayesian posterior with calibrated uncertainty. We show that this widely adopted recipe samples the wrong distribution. Conditioning a generative prior on a hard PDE constraint is conditioning on a measure-zero manifold -- an operation that is intrinsically ambiguous (the Borel--Kolmogorov paradox) and whose physically correct resolution, the small-residual-noise limit, carries a co-area (Fixman) Jacobian factor $[det(JJ^{\top})]^{-1/2}$ that projection- and guidance-based methods silently omit. We make the bias precise, show that it grows with the heterogeneity of the constraint sensitivity, and validate it on controlled problems against an \emph{i.i.d.} ground-truth arbiter. The omitted factor is not a second-order detail: removing it inflates the posterior error to $20\times$ the sampling-noise floor; minimal-displacement projection (as in PCFM) is biased at $9\times$ the floor; and a naive scalar reweighting does not fix it. We introduce \textbf{CoCoS}, a measure-aware constrained sampler that targets the correct co-area posterior, and show that it matches the gold-standard posterior to within sampling noise. Our results imply that satisfying the physics'' is not the same as sampling the posterior,'' and give a principled correction for uncertainty-aware scientific inference.

Large Language Models remain plagued by hallucinations. Recent work has sought to tame their prevalence using statistical techniques based on conformal prediction, with both theoretical and empirical success. However, these methods operate in a post-hoc fashion, treating the sampling procedure itself as atomic and then surgically altering samples to remove hallucinated claims. This disconnect between filtering and generation can result in samples that are incoherent, inconsistent, or simply unlikely under the model itself. Moreover, post-hoc surgery is unable to shift probability mass towards more useful and helpful responses. To address these issues, we propose to instead sample from approximations to an LLM posterior, where the conditioning event corresponds to a calibrated, high-scoring region. We develop a calibration procedure tailored to the setting of conditional sequential generation that effectively identifies this region and achieves target risk control. Empirically, we apply our method to case studies focused on open-ended biography generation and mathematical problem solving; compared to prior work, we obtain the same statistical guarantees, with higher downstream utility.

Generative models are increasingly used as priors for inverse problems, but their ability to produce realistic images creates a basic trust problem: a plausible reconstruction may be supported by the measurements, or it may be filled in by the prior along unobserved directions. This distinction is especially important in medical imaging, where acquisition operators are designed under scan-time, dose, and calibration constraints. We study generative inverse problems from a measurement-geometry perspective. The central question is whether a fixed measurement operator can distinguish nearby images that are plausible under the generative prior, and whether this relationship can guide better measurements. We introduce a local measurement-manifold compatibility measure that quantifies how well the operator observes prior-relevant tangent directions. Under local regularity assumptions, we prove that this quantity controls the stable part of the reconstruction error, while the generative prior controls off-manifold drift. This worst-direction certificate motivates practical fixed and sequential acquisition rules based on overall local volume preservation, including a posterior-cloud design that adapts measurements at test time without training a sampling policy. Across row-sampling, tomographic, and MR acquisition settings, the proposed scores predict failure modes, explain measurement-induced hallucinations, and guide better sampling. In fastMRI Cartesian sampling, posterior-cloud measurement design improves over strong non-learned ACS-preserving baselines, including variable-density and Poisson-like masks.

Diffusion models have excellent capacity to model complex distributions of natural data, which has made them a popular and effective choice for posterior sampling in imaging inverse problems. Existing methods can incorporate any measurement model at inference time but must use an inexact approximation for the likelihood at intermediate timesteps for computational tractability. Although these approximations can often work well empirically, their downstream effect on the sampled posterior is poorly understood and can result in unexplained failures. To understand when, why, and how these likelihood approximations propagate to erroneous posterior distributions, we introduce a finite-sample perspective on posterior sampling that approximates the posterior to arbitrary precision as training set size tends towards infinity, for any forward model and prior distribution. Using this finite-sample lens, we observe that popular posterior sampling approximations tend to under- or over-estimate the spread of the posterior at intermediate timesteps, causing downstream consequences including sensitivity to early stopping time, inaccurate relative weighting of posterior modes, and hallucination, both of prior modes that are not in the posterior and likelihood modes that are not supported by the prior. Moreover, we find that the cause of these posterior errors requires neither a nonlinear measurement model nor a multimodal posterior, but can arise solely due to a multimodal prior and inaccurate posterior spread at intermediate sampling times. Our finite-sample posterior sampling approach is agnostic to the type of likelihood approximation and the type of (linear or nonlinear) forward model, and can thus serve as a drop-in diagnostic to evaluate the accuracy and failure modes of existing and future posterior samplers.

The distortion-perception (D-P) tradeoff is a fundamental phenomenon of Bayesian inverse problems, which characterizes the inherent tension between distortion performance and perceptual quality. Enabling flexible traversal of the D-P tradeoff at inference time is crucial for practical applications. Despite the recent success of diffusion models in zero-shot inverse problem solving, efficient and principled strategies for D-P traversal in diffusion-based inverse algorithms remain inadequately characterized. In this paper, we propose a stage-wise framework for realizing D-P traversal using a single diffusion model in zero-shot inverse problems. Our proposed method, termed MAP-RPS, starts with an MAP estimation stage that approximates the MMSE solution and provides a low-distortion initialization, followed by a re-noised posterior sampling stage that progressively improves perceptual quality. We provide theoretical analyses for both stages, establishing the validity and effectiveness of the proposed design. Furthermore, we extend MAP-RPS to the latent space, yielding LMAP-RPS, which enjoys broader applicability by leveraging large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion backbones. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAP-RPS and LMAP-RPS enable more effective D-P traversal on various tasks, while also exhibiting strong performance as efficient solvers for real-world inverse problems.

Generative posterior sampling using diffusion models has emerged as a dominant paradigm for solving inverse problems in imaging, which usually consists of three main components: data consistency (DC) guidance, classifier-free guidance (CFG) and stochasticity. While prior arts have focused on how to develop each or all components, less attention has given to how to schedule them, leading to heuristically fixed or partially adjusted suboptimal schedules. In this work, we argue that the interactions among all three components in terms of scheduling are crucial for significantly improved performance in solving inverse problems in imaging. Our analysis shows that aggressive CFG early in sampling conflict with DC guidance, while stochasticity brings the trajectory back to higher-probability regions. Based on these findings, we propose Triadic Dynamics Aware Posterior Sampling (TriPS), which reformulates posterior sampling as a time-varying control problem and optimizes schedules following a triadic trend of decreasing DC and stochasticity scales alongside increasing CFG scale. TriPS achieves this through two strategies: template-based search over functional priors for reliable baseline schedules, and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)-based reinforcement learning for more flexible temporal curves. Experiments demonstrate TriPS outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in data fidelity and perceptual realism.

Bayesian inverse design provides a principled framework for inferring aerodynamic geometries from sparse flow observations while quantifying uncertainty. However, its practical use in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is severely limited by the cost of repeated high-fidelity simulations required for gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. While surrogate models are commonly proposed to reduce this cost, their effect on posterior geometry and uncertainty, especially for shock-dominated flows, remains poorly understood. In this work, we demonstrate that neural operator surrogates can be embedded directly within the MCMC inference loop while preserving posterior structure. Using a fully Bayesian inverse formulation of quasi-one-dimensional nozzle flow, we demonstrate that geometry parameterization plays a decisive role in identifiability and posterior conditioning, with cubic B-splines yielding stable and physically meaningful uncertainty estimates. Building on this formulation, a Deep Operator Network trained on CFD-generated data is substituted for the CFD solver within a No-U-Turn Sampler, while keeping the likelihood model, priors, and sampling configuration unchanged. Across sparse to fully observed regimes, surrogate-based inference reproduces the posterior geometry and uncertainty trends of the CFD reference. As a result of surrogate integration, total inference time is reduced to under one second, corresponding to a speedup exceeding three orders of magnitude. In addition, a direct inverse neural operator is examined as a deterministic alternative for inverse design, enabling single-shot geometry reconstruction without posterior sampling. These results demonstrate that neural operator-accelerated Bayesian inference enables practical, uncertainty-aware inverse design workflows for aerodynamic applications.

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while average-then-calibrate variants smooth multiple realizations into a point estimate. Both options discard the inconsistency that can help identify whether a candidate is indeed stable. A weak answer can enter the conformal set even if the evidence is not strong, simply because one posterior sample or prompt phrasing made it look strong. But variability can help distinguish a stable signal from noise-driven fluctuations. We describe an empirical Bayes conformal prediction framework that uses $r$-values to convert score variability into an uncertainty informed nonconformity score. The resulting $r$-value estimates how likely a candidate's latent score belongs to the top-ranked group after accounting for both its mean score and its uncertainty. It admits both a closed-form Normal-Normal empirical Bayes estimator and a nonparametric posterior-sampling estimator. Using the $r$-value as the nonconformity score preserves the target conformal coverage while provably reducing the inclusion of high variance false candidates under mild regularity conditions. Across image classification, CLIP-based VLM benchmarks, and LLMs, we show that $r$-value conformal prediction preserves target coverage while improving ranking stability and reducing set size when variability is informative, and reverting to CP-like behavior when variability vanishes.

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing out the latent variables. For LGMs with a non-Gaussian likelihood, exact marginalization is not possible and a popular approach is to do approximate marginalization with an integrated Laplace approximation (ILA). Using ILA produces an approximate posterior which, in some settings, can differ significantly from the correct posterior, which impacts downstream applications. We propose an importance sampling scheme to correct the error introduced by ILA. By increasing the number of samples in importance sampling, the posterior with ILA converges to the correct posterior. This idea is realized with various techniques, including pseudo-marginalization, quasi-Monte Carlo and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo. We implement our methods in an automatic differentiation framework to support gradient-based algorithms when doing inference on the hyperparameters. For the latter, we specifically consider the use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the benefits of reduced error in various applied models.

In this paper, we study a consensus-based optimization method for nonconvex bi-level optimization, where the objective is to minimize an upper-level function over the set of global minimizers of a lower-level problem. The proposed approach is derivative-free, and constructs its consensus point via smooth quantile selection combined with a Gibbs-type Laplace approximation. We establish convergence guarantees for both the associated \textit{mean-field} dynamics and its \textit{finite-particle} approximation. In particular, under suitable assumptions on smooth quantile localization, error bounds, and stability, we show that the mean-field law reaches any arbitrary prescribed Wasserstein neighborhood of the target bi-level solution with an explicit exponential rate up to the hitting time. Numerical experiments on a two-dimensional constrained problem and neural network training further support the theoretical results.

Deep generative models have emerged as state-of-the-art for solving inverse problems, but applying them to inverse problems for PDEs, like electrical impedance tomography (EIT) remains challenging. Because physical domains are naturally discretized as unstructured meshes rather than regular grids, standard convolutional architectures are often inadequate. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that extends diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) to graph-structured data. We develop an unconditional score-based diffusion model directly on a 2D triangular mesh to learn an accurate prior over the physical solution space. Furthermore, we introduce a regularized variant, RDPS, which incorporates explicit regularization terms, such as total variation and generalized Tikhonov, to complement the implicit diffusion prior and mitigate severe ill-posedness. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real 2D EIT datasets demonstrate that RDPS produces stable, physically plausible reconstructions. Our approach generalizes well to out-of-distribution inclusion geometries, is highly robust to measurement noise, and outperforms current state-of-the-art solvers (e.g., GPnP-BM3D, DP-SGS) in reconstruction accuracy and artifact reduction.

Inferring unknown initial states in shock-dominated compressible flows from sparse and noisy measurements is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem due to nonlinear wave interactions and limited sensing. In this work, we develop a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for efficient Bayesian initial-state inversion with uncertainty quantification. The framework combines a convolutional autoencoder with a learned latent-space forward operator. The autoencoder compresses high-dimensional flow fields into a compact nonlinear latent representation, while the forward operator predicts final-time latent states from encoded initial conditions. This AE-ROM surrogate enables rapid forward evaluations and is embedded within a No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) for posterior exploration. The framework is demonstrated using 500 high-fidelity Sod shock tube simulations generated through Latin hypercube sampling and solved using a fifth-order WENO scheme. The inverse problem seeks to recover unknown left and right density and pressure states from sparse noisy observations of final-time density and pressure fields. Results show that the AE-ROM accurately reconstructs key shock-tube structures, including the rarefaction wave, contact discontinuity, and shock front. A latent dimension of 32 provides an effective balance between reconstruction accuracy and reduced-space compactness, while 250 training simulations are sufficient for accurate reconstruction. Increasing observation density significantly contracts posterior uncertainty, reducing the mean posterior standard deviation by approximately 78% for density and 76% for pressure. Overall, the proposed framework provides a computationally efficient and uncertainty-aware approach for inverse analysis of shock-dominated flows, with potential extensions to multidimensional compressible-flow and digital-twin applications.

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of either component can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models such as large language models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces the prior--likelihood pair with a predictive distribution and recovers parameter uncertainty by repeatedly drawing predictive samples and refitting the model. A direct federated implementation, however, would require clients to share the local data sets. This letter proposes {federated martingale posterior} (FMP) sampling, a one-shot embarrassingly parallel protocol in which each client uploads a small set of trainable data embeddings and the server runs the predictive sampler centrally. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 show that FMP closely matches the centralized counterpart and significantly improves calibration over consensus-style baselines.

We consider amortized Bayesian inference for nonlinear inverse problems in settings where only samples from the joint distribution of parameters and observations are available. Classical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo require solving a new inference problem for each observation, which can be computationally prohibitive when inference must be repeated many times. We propose a transport-based approach that learns an observation-dependent map pushing forward a reference measure to approximate the posterior distribution. The map is trained by minimizing an averaged energy-distance objective between the true posterior and the learned pushforward. This formulation is likelihood-free, requiring only joint samples, and avoids density evaluation, invertibility constraints, and Jacobian determinant computations. For function-space inverse problems with Gaussian priors, we parameterize the transport map as the identity plus a perturbation in the Cameron-Martin space of the prior, preserving absolute continuity with respect to the prior. In infinite-dimensional settings, the map is represented using neural operators. We illustrate the method on a finite-dimensional nonlinear inverse problem and two PDE-constrained inverse problems arising in porous medium flow and seismic inversion. The results show that the learned transport captures posterior structure, including multimodality and dominant modes, while enabling fast posterior sampling for new observations.

A likelihood-free transport filtering method is proposed based on the couplings between state and observation variables. By exploiting a block-triangular structure in the transport map, the analysis step of filtering is reformulated as the minimization of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between the true joint measure and its transport-based approximation. To circumvent the non-convexity in the MMD optimization, we introduce a training-free transport filter method via gradient flows, which leads to an analytic computation for the transport map that implies the steepest descent direction of the MMD. The proposed approach accurately approximates non-Gaussian filtering posteriors and avoids particle collapse. We provide a convergence analysis for the expectation of the MMD between the approximated posterior and the truth posterior. Finally, we extend the method to high-dimensional problems through domain localization. Numerical examples demonstrate the superior performance of our approach over conventional filtering methods in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios.

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose to bypass the parameter posterior and focus directly on approximating the posterior predictive distribution. We achieve this by drawing inspiration from self-training within self-supervised and semi-supervised learning. Essentially, we quantify a Bayesian model's predictive uncertainty by refitting on self-predicted data. The idea is strikingly simple: If a model assigns high likelihood to self-predicted data, these predictions are of low uncertainty, and vice versa. This yields a deterministic, sampling-free approximation of the posterior predictive. The modular structure of our Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation (SSLA) further allows us to plug in different prior specifications, enabling classical Bayesian sensitivity (w.r.t. prior choice) analysis. In order to bypass expensive refitting, we further introduce an approximate version of SSLA, called ASSLA. We study (A)SSLA both theoretically and empirically in regression models ranging from Bayesian linear models to Bayesian neural networks. Across a wide array of regression tasks with simulated and real-world datasets, our methods outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration while remaining computationally efficient.

Diffusion-based posterior sampling (PS) is a leading framework for imaging inverse problems, combining learned priors with measurement constraints. Yet, its standard formulations rely on instantaneous data-consistent estimates, which induce temporal variability in the reverse dynamics. We reinterpret PS from a dynamical perspective, showing that the standard PS update corresponds to a first-order discretization of the diffusion dynamics plus a residual correction capturing the mismatch between the denoised prediction and the data-consistent estimate. A second-order discretization, however, naturally introduces a temporal correction based on the variation of consecutive estimates. Building on this, we propose LAMP, combining the second-order update with the residual correction characterizing a PS technique. LAMP thus inherits a lagged temporal correction, and it can be implemented as a modular plug-in over the PS backbone. We show that LAMP preserves the structure of a posterior sampler, and we perform a one-step risk analysis to characterize when LAMP improves the reverse transition via a bias-variance trade-off. Experiments across multiple imaging tasks demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines such as DiffPIR and DDRM, without increasing the number of denoising evaluations.

Score-based diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art performance for inverse problems, but their practical deployment is hindered by long inference times and cumbersome hyperparameter tuning. While pretrained diffusion models can be reused across tasks without retraining, inference-time hyperparameters such as the noise schedule and posterior sampling weights typically require ad-hoc adjustment for each problem setup. We propose principled reparameterizations that induce invariances, allowing the same hyperparameters to be reused across multiple problems without re-tuning. In addition, building on the RED-diff framework, which reformulates posterior sampling as an optimization problem, we further develop the OptDiff pipeline. OptDiff provides a simplified tuning framework that facilitates the integration of convex optimization tools to accelerate inference. Experiments on image reconstruction, deblurring, and super-resolution show substantial speedups and improved image quality.

The remarkable achievements of both generative models of 2D images and neural field representations for 3D scenes present a compelling opportunity to integrate the strengths of both approaches. In this work, we propose a methodology that combines a NeRF-based representation of 3D scenes with probabilistic modeling and reasoning using diffusion models. We view 3D reconstruction as a perception problem with inherent uncertainty that can thereby benefit from probabilistic inference methods. The core idea is to represent the 3D scene as a stochastic latent variable for which we can learn a prior and use it to perform posterior inference given a set of observations. We formulate posterior sampling using the score-based inference method of diffusion models in conjunction with a likelihood term computed from a reconstruction model that includes volumetric rendering. We train the model using a two-stage process: first we train the reconstruction model while auto-decoding the latent representations for a dataset of 3D scenes, and then we train the prior over the latents using a diffusion model. By using the model to generate samples from the posterior we demonstrate that various 3D reconstruction tasks can be performed, differing by the type of observation used as inputs. We showcase reconstruction from single-view, multi-view, noisy images, sparse pixels, and sparse depth data. These observations vary in the amount of information they provide for the scene and we show that our method can model the varying levels of inherent uncertainty associated with each task. Our experiments illustrate that this approach yields a comprehensive method capable of accurately predicting 3D structure from diverse types of observations.

We study posterior sampling for inverse problems in discrete state spaces using discrete diffusion models as generative priors. While continuous diffusion models have become widely used for inverse problems, their discrete counterparts remain comparatively underexplored. Existing discrete posterior samplers often rely on continuous relaxations of discrete variables, Gibbs-style updates, or mechanisms specialized to particular corruption processes, which can limit scalability or generality. We propose $Δ$LPS, a Discrete Langevin-Inspired Posterior Sampler that uses gradient information to identify promising discrete moves without leaving the discrete state space. The resulting approach enables efficient parallel updates across all token dimensions and is agnostic to the training paradigm of the discrete diffusion prior, including masked and uniform-state diffusion. We evaluate our method on image restoration tasks across MNIST, CIFAR, and FFHQ, as well as spatial mapping, covering linear, nonlinear, and blind inverse problems. Across these settings, we improve over recent discrete diffusion posterior samplers and are competitive with strong continuous diffusion-based inverse solvers. Our results suggest that fully discrete, gradient-informed posterior samplers offer a scalable and general path toward solving inverse problems over discrete representations.

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse approximations. A prominent class of such methods - sub-network Laplace approximations, constructs surrogates by restricting attention to a small subset of parameters. Existing approaches in this family typically rely on diagonal, layer-wise, or other architectural heuristics for subset selection, which ignore cross-parameter interactions and lack formal optimality guarantees. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of the sub-network Laplace paradigm. We prove that all sub-network Laplace methods systematically underestimate the predictive variance of the full Laplace posterior, and that this bias decreases monotonically as the retained sub-matrix expands. Leveraging this insight, we propose two principled, analytically grounded sub-network Hessian approximations: \textit{Gradient-Laplace} selects parameters with the largest average squared gradients of the model output with respect to the parameters over a reference dataset; while \textit{Greedy-Laplace} iteratively refines this selection by accounting for off-diagonal interactions in the precision matrix. We establish theoretical guarantees characterizing their optimality properties and show that Gradient-Laplace provably outperforms existing heuristic approaches. Extensive numerical studies across diverse settings indicate that these methods perform strongly relative to existing benchmarks.

A fundamental challenge in model-based offline reinforcement learning (RL) lies in the trade-off between generalization and robustness against exploitation errors in out-of-distribution (OOD) regions. While OOD samples may capture valid underlying physical dynamics, they also introduce the risk of model exploitation. Existing methods typically address this risk through excessive pessimistic regularization, which ensures robustness but often sacrifices generalization. To overcome this limitation, we propose Posterior Sampling-based Policy Optimization (PSPO), which formulates dynamics modeling as a Bayesian inference process to derive a posterior that explicitly quantifies model fidelity. Through the integration of posterior sampling and constrained policy optimization, our method leverages dynamics-consistent OOD transitions for generalization while ensuring robustness against model exploitation. Theoretically, we formulate Q-value estimation under posterior sampling as a stochastic approximation problem and establish its convergence. We decompose policy optimization into a sequence of constrained subproblems, demonstrating that solving these subproblems guarantees monotonic improvement until convergence. Experiments on standard benchmarks validate that PSPO achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

State estimation is a critical task in scientific, engineering and control applications. Since the reliability of reconstructions depends on the number and position of sensors, optimal sensor placement (OSP) is essential in scenarios where measurements are sparse and expensive. Classical OSP approaches rely on Gaussian assumptions and are consequently unable to account for the complex distributions encountered in many real-world systems. Generative-model-based reconstruction using sensor guided diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) has emerged as a promising technique for reconstructing states from highly complex distributions. However, existing sensor-selection methods either require unrealistically many sensors or emulate classical OSP, creating a mismatch between modern recovery models with classical OSP tools motivating the need for fundamentally new ideas towards OSP that match the recent advances made in powerful recovery models. We introduce a distribution-free sensor placement framework based on the Christoffel function: a mathematical formulation of optimal sampling and recovery guarantees for posterior sampling with arbitrary sensors and signal distributions, from which we derive a new OSP strategy with non-asymptotic bounds on the number of sensors needed for recovery. We develop Christoffel-DPS, with offline and online variants, instantiating Christoffel sampling for generative models. Christoffel-DPS outperforms Gaussian OSP baselines and existing generative-model placement methods, validating that distribution-free sensing is both theoretically principled and practically superior. The framework is model-agnostic; we demonstrate its application to a range of unconditional DPS and flow-matching models on structurally non-Gaussian benchmarks, showing the efficacy of Christoffel-DPS in low sensor budget regimes.

Diffusion-based posterior samplers use pretrained diffusion priors to sample from measurement- or reward-conditioned posteriors, and are widely used for inverse problems. Yet their theoretical behavior remains poorly understood: even with exact prior scores, their outputs are biased, and in low-temperature regimes their discretizations can become unstable. We characterize this bias by introducing a tractable surrogate path connecting the true posterior to a standard Gaussian and comparing it to the sampler's path. Their density ratio satisfies a parabolic PDE whose reaction term measures the accumulated bias. A Feynman-Kac representation then expresses the Radon-Nikodym correction as an explicit path expectation, identifying which posterior regions are over- or under-sampled. We apply this framework to DPS and STSL, a related sampler. For DPS, the correction is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck path expectation coupling the data conditional covariance with the reward curvature, revealing where DPS over- or under-samples. Next, we reinterpret STSL as an auxiliary drift that steers trajectories toward low-uncertainty regions, flattening the spatially varying part of the DPS reaction term. Finally, we characterize early guidance-stopping, a common mitigation for low-temperature instabilities caused by forward-Euler integration of the vector field. Together, these results clarify sampler bias, explain existing correctives, and guide stable variant designs.

We study the $(\varepsilon, δ)$-PAC policy identification problem in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes. Existing approaches provide finite-time guarantees for approximate settings ($\varepsilon>0$) but suffer from high computational cost, rendering them hard to implement, and also suffer from suboptimal dependence on $\log(1/δ)$. We propose a randomized and computationally efficient algorithm for best policy identification that combines posterior sampling with an online learning algorithm to guide exploration in the MDP. Our method achieves asymptotic optimality in sample complexity, also in terms of posterior contraction rate, and runs in $O(S^2AH)$ per episode, matching standard model-based approaches. Unlike prior algorithms such as MOCA and PEDEL, our guarantees remain meaningful in the asymptotic regime and avoid sub-optimal polynomial dependence on $\log(1/δ)$. Our results provide both theoretical insights and practical tools for efficient policy identification in tabular MDPs.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for robust decision-making in the presence of ambiguous or out-of-distribution inputs. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are classical kernel-based models that offer principled uncertainty quantification and perform well on small- to medium-scale datasets. Alternatively, formulating the weight space learning problem under tensor network assumptions yields scalable tensor network kernel machines. However, these assumptions break Gaussianity, complicating standard probabilistic inference. This raises a fundamental question: how can tensor network kernel machines provide principled uncertainty estimates? We propose a novel Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machine (LA-TNKM) that employs a (linearized) Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference. A comprehensive set of numerical experiments shows that the proposed method consistently matches or surpasses Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) across diverse UCI regression benchmarks, highlighting both its effectiveness and practical relevance.

While diffusion priors generate high-quality posterior samples across many inverse problems, they are often trained on limited training sets or purely simulated data, thus inheriting the errors and biases of these underlying sources. Current approaches to finetuning diffusion models rely on a large number of observations with varying forward operators, which can be difficult to collect for many applications, and thus lead to overfitting when the measurement set is small. We propose a method for tuning a prior from only a single observation by combining existing diffusion priors into a single product-of-experts prior and identifying the exponents that maximize the Bayesian evidence. We validate our method on real-world inverse problems, including black hole imaging, where the true prior is unknown a priori, and image deblurring with text-conditioned priors. We find that the evidence is often maximized by priors that extend beyond those trained on a single dataset. By generalizing the prior through exponent weighting, our approach enables posterior sampling from both tempered and combined diffusion models, yielding more flexible priors that improve the trustworthiness of the resulting posterior image distribution.

Diffusion models (DMs) have recently shown remarkable performance on inverse problems (IPs). Optimization-based methods can fast solve IPs using DMs as powerful regularizers, but they are susceptible to local minima and noise overfitting. Although DMs can provide strong priors for Bayesian approaches, enforcing measurement consistency during the denoising process leads to manifold infeasibility issues. We propose Noise-space Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (N-HMC), a posterior sampling method that treats reverse diffusion as a deterministic mapping from initial noise to clean images. N-HMC enables comprehensive exploration of the solution space, avoiding local optima. By moving inference entirely into the initial-noise space, N-HMC keeps proposals on the learned data manifold. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of our approach and extend the framework to a noise-adaptive variant (NA-NHMC) that effectively handles IPs with unknown noise type and level. Extensive experiments across four linear and three nonlinear inverse problems demonstrate that NA-NHMC achieves superior reconstruction quality with robust performance across different hyperparameters and initializations, significantly outperforming recent state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/NA-HMC/NA-HMC.

Generative semantic communication (SemCom) harnesses pretrained generative priors to improve the perceptual quality of wireless image transmission. Existing generative SemCom receivers, however, rely on maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, which fundamentally cannot preserve the data distribution and thus limits achievable perceptual quality. Moreover, current diffusion-based approaches using single-domain guidance face significant limitations: latent-domain guidance is sensitive to channel noise, while image-domain guidance inherits decoder bias. Simply combining both domains simultaneously yields an overconfident pseudo-posterior. In this paper, we formulate semantic decoding as a Bayesian inverse problem and prove that posterior sampling achieves optimal perceptual quality by preserving the data distribution. Building on this insight, we propose alternating dual-domain posterior sampling (ADDPS), a diffusion-based SemCom receiver that alternately enforces latent-domain and image-domain consistency during the sampling process. This alternating strategy decomposes joint posterior sampling into simpler subproblems, avoiding gradient conflicts while retaining the complementary strengths of both domains. Experiments on FFHQ demonstrate that the proposed ADDPS achieves superior perceptual quality compared with existing methods.

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is a heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop successful algorithms for a variety of continuous control problems. However, theoretical work on GP-PSRL is limited. All known regret bounds either have a sub-optimal growth rate, require strong smoothness assumptions, or fail to properly account for the fact that the set of possible system states is unbounded. Through a recursive application of the Borell-Tsirelson-Ibragimov-Sudakov inequality, we show that, with high probability, the states actually visited by the algorithm are contained within a ball of near-constant radius. We then use the chaining method to control the regret suffered by GP-PSRL under weak smoothness conditions. Our main result is a Bayesian regret bound of the order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H\sqrt{γ_TT})$, where $H$ is the horizon, $T$ is the number of time steps and $γ_T$ is the expected information gain. With this result, we resolve the limitations with prior theoretical work on PSRL, and provide the theoretical foundation and tools for analyzing PSRL in complex settings.

This article addresses the issue of estimating observation parameters (response and error parameters) in inverse problems. The focus is on cases where regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework and the prior is modeled by a diffusion process. In this context, the issue of posterior sampling is known to be thorny, and a recent paper proposes a notably simple and effective solution. Additionally, it opens an remarkable flexibility when it comes to estimating observation parameters. The proposed strategy enables to define an optimal estimator for both observation parameters and image of interest. Furthermore, the strategy provides a means for uncertainty quantification. In addition, MCMC algorithms allow for the computation of estimates and properties of posteriors, while offering some guarantees. The paper presents several numerical experiments that clearly confirm the computational efficiency and the quality of both estimates and uncertainty quantification.

This paper addresses the issue of inversion in cases where (1) the observation system is modeled by a linear transformation and additive error, (2) the problem is ill-posed and regularization relies on a Bayesian strategy, (3)~the prior is modeled by a diffusion process adjusted on an available large set of examples. In this context, it is known that the issue of posterior sampling is a thorny one and the paper introduces a Gibbs algorithm. It appears that this avenue has not been explored, and we show that it is particularly effective and remarkably simple. In addition, it provides clear elements regarding convergence guarantees in a specific case and arguments supporting such guarantees in practical cases. The results are clearly confirmed by numerical simulations based on a toy example.

We introduce a new multivariate statistical problem that we refer to as the Ensemble-conditioned Inverse Problem (EIP). The aim of EIP is to invert for an ensemble that is distributed according to the pushforward of a prior under a forward process. In high energy physics (HEP), this is related to a widely known problem called unfolding, which aims to reconstruct the true physics distribution from observations that are distorted by detector effects. The EIP also arises in full waveform inversion (FWI) and inverse imaging with unknown priors. We propose non-iterative inference-time methods that construct posterior samplers based on a new class of conditional generative models, which we call ensemble inverse generative models. For the posterior modeling, these models additionally use the ensemble information contained in the observation set on top of single observations. Unlike existing methods, our proposed methods avoid explicit and iterative use of the forward model at inference time via training across several sets of truth-observation pairs that are consistent with the same forward model, but originate from a wide range of priors. We empirically demonstrate that this training procedure can implicitly encode the likelihood model, enabling direct posterior inference for unseen priors to some degree. We benchmark the proposed method on several synthetic and real datasets in inverse imaging, HEP, and FWI. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZhengyanHuan/EIP.