Power Systems

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 122% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 149

Jun 1, 2026cs.AI

Explainable Data-driven Deep Reinforcement Learning Methods for Optimal Energy Management in Buildings

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources into power systems, particularly in buildings equipped with photovoltaic (PV) panels and energy storage systems, introduces significant complexity in energy systems. Volatile power generation, varying electricity tariffs, and increased entities, e.g., PV systems, and heat pumps, have increased the complexity and made the system harder to operate. This leads to the demand for additional control and optimization routes including data-based controls, such as reinforcement learning. While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has emerged as a promising solution to optimize building operations in dynamic and ever more complex environments, its black-box nature impedes user trust and practical adoption. This paper presents a framework for explainable deep reinforcement learning (XRL) applied to energy management in residential buildings. We demonstrate its usage on both synthetic data but also on real-world data from the Living Lab Energy Campus (LLEC) at KIT. We train and compare both on-policy and off-policy DRL agents on an expanded state space that incorporates real-time measurements (demand, PV generation, battery power, state of charge), external signals (dynamic electricity price, local weather data), calendrical and holiday indicators, and forecasts for demand and price. Our experimental results indicate that on-policy algorithms, particularly Advantage Actor Critic (A2C) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), outperform off-policy methods in terms of cumulative rewards and policy stability. To explain these models, we employ post-hoc interpretation techniques to elaborate the learned control policies. Our findings demonstrate that the XRL framework not only reduces electricity costs through optimal battery management, but also provides transparent, actionable insights into the agent's decision-making process.

Hallah Shahid Butt, Qiong Huang, Gökhan Demirel +6

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany

RL Control Reinforcement Learning Building Energy Management Interpretability in RL Power Systems

May 30, 2026econ.EM

Certificates without Electrons? Theory and Evidence on Impacts from AI-Driven Power Demand

Data centers now account for 4.4% of United States electricity demand, yet the grid-level effectiveness of the renewable energy certificates (RECs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) hyperscalers use to claim carbon neutrality remains unclear. We develop a game-theoretic model in which a data center operator chooses among RECs, PPAs, and behind-the-meter colocation while generators make entry decisions under endogenous financing costs. The model identifies a timing wedge -- the mismatch between consumption and credited renewable generation -- as a central mechanism through which AI demand degrades reliability, raises prices, and increases emissions even when RECs cover 100% of annual consumption. Colocation with storage addresses this wedge directly and induces the greatest renewable entry by eliminating generator revenue risk. We test these predictions by exploiting the staggered release of large language models as a natural experiment, using difference-in-differences on a novel dataset linking AI activity to local grid outcomes. AI demand significantly increases fossil generation, wholesale prices (up to 25% in treated PJM zones), and outage frequency (0.5--1 additional outages per year) near data centers, with impacts scaling in model size. Data centers with on-site generation exhibit a sign reversal in power-quality effects, consistent with the model's prediction that behind-the-meter capacity absorbs demand spikes. Counterfactual analyses show that edge inference, spatial reallocation, and colocated storage each substantially mitigate grid impacts, while REC-only strategies do not. Together, our results demonstrate that the externalities of AI to the grid are tightly coupled to procurement design and the spatial organization of data center infrastructure.

Dana Golden, Aruna Balasubramanian, Niranjan Balasubramanian

Department of Economics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA · Department of Computer Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA

May 30, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Policy Distillation for Power Grid Topology Control

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising route to real-time power grid operation, yet large neural policies are costly to evaluate, hard to deploy on constrained hardware, and opaque to operators. We ask whether a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent for grid topology control can be compressed into compact tree-based surrogates without losing operational performance. A PPO teacher is trained on Grid2Op's standard 14-bus environment with a stability-oriented reward, using stress-focused data collection on critical, high-loading states. The policy is then distilled into a decision tree and a random forest. Across held-out validation episodes, both surrogates exceed the teacher in mean reward and survival length at a fraction of the inference cost. The decision tree shows high exact-action agreement with the PPO argmax and near-complete agreement within its top-ranked actions, while remaining small enough to be inspected directly. Feature-importance analysis reveals a representational shift: the PPO policy relies mainly on line-loading signals, while the distilled tree is driven primarily by bus-topology variables. These results suggest that stress-focused distillation can convert a black-box neural controller into a lightweight, auditable rule-like surrogate suited for real-time deployment, while also surfacing risks tied to deterministic actions and topology-specific generalization.

Aleksandra Dmitruka, Karlis Freivalds

University of Latvia, Faculty of Exact Sciences and Technology, Riga, Latvia

RL Control Reinforcement Learning Decision Tree Learning Interpretability in RL Policy Distillation Power Systems

May 29, 2026cs.LG

Learning to Bid in FCR Markets: A Best-of-Both-Worlds Approach

Bidding in the European Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) market is challenging for flexibility providers because competing offers are hidden and bidders observe only partial feedback form the market, such as, clearing price and awarded quantity. For a participant active in a single country, we show that the multi-country FCR clearing problem can be recast as a repeated multi-unit uniform-price auction against an endogenous vector of opposing bids. This reformulation yields an online learning problem and allows us to adapt a Best-of-Both-Worlds combinatorial semi-bandit algorithm implementable from this standard market feedback. The resulting bidder achieves logarithmic pseudo-regret in stochastic environments and

\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})

regret in adversarial ones. Synthetic experiments confirm the expected scaling, and backtests on historical European FCR data show competitive performance in practice: the method performs especially well on stable products, while EXP3-type baselines can be safer under stronger non-stationarity. Overall, the results show that learning-based bidding in FCR markets is theoretically grounded and practically useful when the learning rule matches product-level market stability.

Marius Potfer, Cheng Wan, Pierre Gruet

ENSAE, CREST (Fairplay joint team), 5 Av. Le Chatelier, 91120, Palaiseau, France · EDF Lab Paris-Saclay, FiME (Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés de l’Énergie), 7 Bd Gaspard Monge, 91120, Palaiseau, France

Automated Bidding Power Systems

May 27, 2026cs.LG

Cycle-Space Informed Detection of Autoencoded Blind False Data Injection Attacks on Power Systems

The rapid growth of AI-driven data centers and large-scale energy storage systems is increasing the reliance of power system operation on real-time measurement data and automated decision-making. However, many existing detection methods rely on statistical or data-driven analysis of measurements and can fail when attackers exploit the same data structure to craft stealthy perturbations. To illustrate this limitation, we demonstrate a blind False Data Injection Attack (FDIA) in which an Autoencoder learns the measurement manifold and generates perturbations aligned with the Jacobian null space, thereby allowing the attack to evade both residual-based baddata detectors and time-series anomaly detectors. To mitigate data-driven FDIAs which exploit the null space, we propose a topology-informed Cycle-Space Detector (CSD) that leverages the Cycle-Space of the network to impose structural constraints that enhance null space estimation. In addition, we prove that by using the Minimum Cycle Basis (MCB), the proposed CSD achieves the optimal generalization error for attack detection. By exploiting topology-derived cycle constraints rather than relying solely on numerical null space estimation, the proposed method does not require precise line parameters and improves the separation between normal and attacked measurements. Simulation results on IEEE 14-, 30-, 57-, and 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method effectively detects data-driven FDIAs under realistic measurement noise.

Xin Li, Chenhan Xiao, Jonathan Cohen +3

Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Ben-Gurion-University, Be’er Sheva, Israel · School of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, AZ, USA · Department of Computer Science, Shamoon College of Engineering, Be’er Sheva, Israel

False Data Injection Attacks Cybersecurity Power Systems

May 27, 2026stat.ML

Decision-focused learning for optimal PV-Battery scheduling

The use of residential photovoltaics has increased dramatically in recent years. With battery systems becoming more affordable, the optimal operation of a photovoltaic-battery system can bring significant savings to households. Optimal control requires correct forecasts of underlying parameters, such as photovoltaic power generation, to schedule the battery. While forecasting models have become increasingly accurate due to algorithmic advances and data availability, accuracy is typically measured in generic metrics which might not align with the downstream application. This study proposes a decision-focused learning framework that integrates optimization and prediction by training a Long Short-Term Memory photovoltaic energy forecaster on the downstream optimal scheduling of a battery system. The proposed methodology is compared against a standard two-phase approach. Across a 14-month evaluation period, the decision-focused method reduced average electricity costs across twenty buildings by 3.6% when normalized against performance bounds defined by a perfect forecast and a baseline of no optimization. Critically, this financial improvement was achieved despite the model exhibiting a root mean squared error of 19.9%, significantly higher than the decoupled model's 8.2%. Warm-starting the decision-focused model further improves results, lowering average cost by approximately 8%, while also mitigating the negative impact on statistical accuracy (root mean squared error of 13.7%). The findings are statistically significant at the 0.001 level across the twenty households and for each household individually. These results demonstrate that aligning forecast models with optimization goals is key for achieving cost advantages in PV-battery systems. Future research should replicate these findings on other datasets, alternate forecasting models and alternate optimization algorithms.

Joris Depoortere, Hussain Kazmi, Johan Driesen

ESAT-Electa KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, Leuven, 3001, Belgium

Sequential Decision Making Time Series Forecasting Decision-Focused Learning Solar Power Forecasting Power Systems

May 26, 2026cs.LG

Outage Detection in Self-Healing Smart Grids Using Reinforcement Learning with Spectral Graph Neural Networks

Self-healing smart grids can quickly adjust their network configuration during outages to minimize power disruptions. During an outage, several actions can be taken, such as network reconfiguration through switching operations and emergency load shedding. However, traditional machine learning methods for outage mitigation are not well suited for smart grids due to their slow response time and high computational cost. To address these challenges, recent studies have explored reinforcement learning to automatically perform network reconfiguration. In these approaches, the control policy is typically modeled using a graph neural network (GNN). However, conventional GNNs operate in the spatial domain and may fail to capture important relationships in the frequency domain. Frequency-domain information is particularly useful for modeling global structural patterns and system-wide interactions in power networks. In this paper, we propose a spectral graph reinforcement learning framework for outage management in distribution networks to enhance system resilience. Our model learns the optimal power restoration policy using a spectral graph neural network. We evaluate the proposed method on three modified IEEE test systems: the 13-bus, 34-bus, and 123-bus networks. Experimental results show that our approach achieves near-optimal performance in real time and generalizes well across a wide range of outage scenarios.

Lihui Liu, Mucun Sun, Caisheng Wang

Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA

RL Control Graph Neural Networks Spectral Graph Convolution Power Systems

May 25, 2026cs.AI

From Accounting to Coordination: A Virtual Water-Aware Electricity-Computation-Water Nexus Framework for Data Center Dispatch

The expansion of data centers (DCs) drives a sustained increase in electricity demand and associated water withdrawals at generation sites. These withdrawals occur at generation sites and are virtually allocated to demand based on network power flows. Consequently, the actual water footprint of a specific load varies dynamically with generation dispatch and network conditions. Existing approaches typically rely on static statistical accounting to quantify these water footprints. However, such static methods fail to capture how dispatch optimization and workload relocation dynamically affect water withdrawals. As a result, static statistical accounting approaches remain decoupled from the optimization process, rendering them incapable of guiding workload relocation or power dispatch to mitigate water stress. To address this limitation, this paper develops an operational electricity-computation-water (ECW) nexus framework that internalizes virtual water impacts directly into power system dispatch. The framework represents dispatch optimization as a differentiable optimization layer embedded within a deep learning architecture, enabling efficient end-to-end learning of coordination policies while preserving operational feasibility. Combined with fixed-point coordination, the framework enforces consistency between virtual water attribution and physical generation-side withdrawals. Case studies on the IEEE 30-bus and 118-bus test systems demonstrate reliable convergence, exact power-water consistency, and reductions of approximately 3-5% in generation-related freshwater withdrawals under water-constrained conditions.

Haiyang You, Chengwei Lou, Jin Zhao +3

May 23, 2026cs.AI

Emission-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Sustainable Electric Vehicle Charging and Carbon Dioxide Reduction Under Varying Renewable Penetration

The rapid growth of Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption challenges power distribution networks through peak load spikes, voltage instability, and transformer overloads from uncoordinated charging. While Model Predictive Control (MPC) and standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods have addressed these issues, existing approaches rarely treat real-time carbon intensity or fluctuating renewable energy (RE) availability as primary scheduling objectives, leaving substantial decarbonisation potential unrealised. This paper proposes an emission-aware RL strategy based on the Soft Actor Critic (SAC) algorithm, with a multi-objective reward that penalises carbon emissions, curtailed on-site renewables, and unmet user demand. The agent is trained within a unified benchmarking framework on the EV2Gym platform, incorporating behind-the-meter solar and wind profiles, time-varying EirGrid carbon intensity data, and realistic workplace EV behaviour across 25 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) units. Nine control strategies, including heuristics, emission-aware MPC variants, and the proposed RL agent, are compared under five renewable penetration scenarios (0%-50%) over ten independent runs each. The RL agent achieves a carbon intensity as low as 23.96 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour under 50% wind penetration, representing up to 87% emission reduction versus the uncontrolled baseline, and outperforms the external graph-based Power Distribution Network (PDN) benchmark. Transformer overload remains below 7 kWh across scenarios, against up to 1093 kWh for the As Fast As Possible (AFAP) heuristic, and renewable self-consumption reaches 52% under combined wind and solar supply. Embedding carbon intensity forecasts into the RL state and reward aligns charging with low-emission periods while preserving grid compliance and user satisfaction.

Ninglin Ou, Mohammad A. Razzaque, Iftekher Islam Shovon +5

anasc Research, School of Computer Science & IT, University College Cork, IE · School of Computing, Engineering and Digital Technologies, Teesside University, UK · International Energy Research Centre, Tyndall National Institute, Cork, IE +1

RL Control Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning Electric Vehicle Charging Power Systems

May 22, 2026cs.LG

Scalable Heterogeneous Graph Foundation Models for Data-Driven Optimal Power Flow in Smart Grids

Fast and reliable optimal power flow (OPF) approximation is important for power system operation, yet heterogeneous OPF graph models are often evaluated either with architecture-specific implementations or on limited training corpora. This paper presents a large-scale heterogeneous graph-learning workflow, built on HydraGNN, for data-driven OPF surrogate modeling and graph foundation-model (GFM) development. The workflow preserves buses, generators, loads, shunts, alternating-current (AC) lines, transformers, and device-to-bus relations and provides a common implementation for distributed preprocessing, multi-graphics-processing-unit (GPU) training, hyperparameter optimization (HPO), and downstream adaptation. Using approximately three million heterogeneous graphs from ten Power Grid Library for Benchmarking AC Optimal Power Flow Algorithms (PGLib-OPF) cases spanning 14 to 13,659 buses, we compare six heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) families under a common HPO campaign on Frontier, resulting in two compact HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT models (~1.6-1.7 million parameters) that achieve the lowest observed validation MSE. Strong and weak scaling using up to 1,024 Frontier nodes show that 256 nodes (corresponding to 1,024 AMD MI250X GPUs) provides the best time-to-solution balance for the measured workload. Two downstream tasks evaluate task adaptation on the IEEE 118-bus case: a classification task to distinguish nominal operating conditions from artificially generated extreme-overload conditions and N-1 single-component-outage regression to predict bus voltage magnitude and phase angle. Partial fine-tuning provides the strongest balance between predictive performance and computational requirements.

Massimiliano Lupo Pasini, Yijiang Li, Kibaek Kim +1

Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA

Neural Surrogate Modeling Heterogeneous GNNs Optimal Power Flow Graph Foundation Models Constrained Optimization Power Systems

May 21, 2026cs.LG

Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection in IoT-Enabled Smart Grids Using Machine Learning and Metaheuristic Feature Optimization

Modern smart grids rely on dense measurement infrastructures, communication links, and intelligent field devices. Although this improves supervision and control, it also increases vulnerability to cyber-physical disruptions. Operators must distinguish physical incidents, such as faults or line disturbances, from malicious actions, such as false data injection or unauthorized command execution. This chapter investigates this problem using the well-known MSU/ORNL Power System Attack Dataset. The proposed method combines machine learning with genetic-algorithm-based feature selection. The objective is twofold: to classify attack and natural events accurately, and to determine whether a reduced set of physically informative PMU/IED measurements can support reliable detection. Several baseline models are evaluated, including logistic regression, RBF-SVM, XGBoost, Random Forest, and Extra Trees. The results show that tree-based ensemble models are the most effective for the considered dataset, with Extra Trees providing the strongest full-feature baseline. After feature selection, the GA + Extra Trees model reduces the clean PMU feature space from 112 attributes to an average of 27.4 attributes over five runs, while increasing macro-F1 from 0.9118 to 0.9212 and ROC-AUC from 0.9791 to 0.9837. These results indicate that many synchronized electrical measurements are redundant. A compact subset of phasor-based features can still provide accurate and interpretable anomaly detection in smart grids.

Adis Alihodžić, Eva Tuba, Milan Tuba

Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, University of Sarajevo, Zmaja od Bosne 33–35, Sarajevo, 71000, Bosnia & Herzegovina · Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, Belgrade, 11000, Serbia · Trinity University, 1 Trinity Pl, San Antonio, 78212, Texas, USA +1

Cyber-Physical Systems Cybersecurity Feature Selection Anomaly Detection Power Systems

May 21, 2026eess.SY

Engineering Hybrid Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Next-Generation Electricity Systems: A State-of-the-Art Review

The integration of machine learning with domain-specific physics is transforming the design, monitoring, and control of electricity systems, where data scarcity, limited interpretability, and the need to enforce physical laws constrain purely data-driven models. Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) addresses these limitations by embedding governing equations directly into the learning process, yielding accurate, efficient, and scalable solutions for Industry 4.0 applications. This article reviews hybrid PIML architectures for electricity systems, including physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets), Fourier Neural Operators, Extreme Learning Machine-enhanced PINNs, graph-based PINNs (PIGNNs), and domain-decomposition PINNs. Each approach is examined through case studies spanning field analysis, fault detection, digital twins, surrogate modeling, and control optimization. The review shows that embedding Maxwell's equations and other first-principles constraints substantially improves predictive accuracy under sparse and noisy data, reduces simulation time by orders of magnitude relative to finite element methods, and enhances generalization across operating regimes. Hybrid frameworks consistently outperform purely data-driven baselines on parameter sensitivity, dynamic behavior, and robustness, while supporting real-time digital-twin calibration and uncertainty quantification. Persistent challenges include training instability for stiff multi-scale problems, computational cost of high-fidelity models, and the absence of standardized benchmarks. The findings demonstrate that PIML enables a paradigm shift from black-box data-driven methods to transparent, physics-informed strategies, positioning the field for sustained innovation in resilient and intelligent electricity systems.

Joseph Nyangon

Energy Exemplar, Salt Lake City, UT, 84111, USA

Physics-Informed ML Physics-Informed Neural Operators Power Systems

May 20, 2026cs.LG

PeakFocus: Bridging Peak Localization and Intensity Regression via a Unified Multi-Scale Framework for Electricity Load Forecasting

Electricity load peak forecasting (ELPF), simultaneously predicting peak timing and intensity, is a prerequisite for effective grid scheduling and risk management. However, existing methods face three limitations. First, they adopt a two-stage predict-then-locate paradigm, which severs the link between temporal localization and intensity regression. Second, they still struggle with the multi-scale representation conflict, leading to peak misjudgment and timing misalignment. Third, the lack of explicit peak timing context during intensity regression causes intensity smoothing because predictions are dominated by global smoothing trends. To address these limitations, we propose PeakFocus, a unified framework for ELPF. (i) A Unified Peak-Aware Pipeline (UPAP) utilizes a triple hybrid loss to jointly supervise temporal localization and intensity regression, alongside a tolerance-based evaluation protocol. (ii) A Multi-Scale Mixing Peak Locator (MSM-PL) exploits coarse-grained features to mitigate peak misjudgment caused by local fluctuations, and injects them into fine-grained features via a cascade mechanism to resolve timing misalignment. (iii) A Location-Aware Decoder (LAD) injects peak timing context into the intensity regression process, providing explicit guidance to counteract intensity smoothing and improve peak intensity estimation. Extensive experiments on the public Electricity (ELC) dataset and our industrial-scale World Large-scale Electricity Load (WLEL) dataset show that PeakFocus outperforms baselines in both timing precision and intensity estimation.

Wangzhi Yu, Peng Zhu, Qing Zhao +2

School of Computer Science and Technology, Tongji University, Shanghai, China · Big Data Center, State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing, China

Time Series Forecasting Electricity Load Forecasting Power Systems

May 19, 2026cs.LO

Long-term Power Grid Planning via Answer Set Programming

The Power grid is a critical infrastructure underpinning all aspects of modern society and its services. Maintaining its effectiveness requires continuous adaptations. In particular, addressing sustainability targets, demand patterns, and urbanisation trends requires implementing changes to the network. Actual developments can potentially span over a decade, with supply continuity and service quality that must be preserved throughout by ensuring conformance to several topological and combinatorial invariants. Long-term power grid planning deals with the above process, and although planning languages could be a natural choice, the kind of properties and invariants needed are cumbersome to express in such languages; on the contrary, they can be elegantly and succinctly encoded in Answer Set Programming (ASP). In this paper, we propose the first approach to automate and optimise the long-term power grid planning process using ASP. Experimental evaluations conducted on synthetic and real-world grid data confirm the expressive power of the proposed ASP-based approach and demonstrate its effectiveness.

Antonio Ielo, Francesco Doria, Sandra Castellanos-Paez +3

University of Calabria, Italy · University of Huddersfield, UK

Long-Horizon Planning Power Systems

May 17, 2026eess.SY

Latency-Aware Deep Learning Benchmark for Real-Time Cyber-Physical Attack and Fault Classification in Inverter-Dominated Power Grids

This work introduces a latency-aware benchmarking framework for evaluating deep learning models in power system anomaly detection using high-fidelity, time-domain signals generated from an industry-grade electromagnetic transient simulator. Eight neural network architectures, ranging from MLPs to Transformers, were systematically evaluated on streaming datasets representing both physical faults and cyber-attacks in inverter-dominated networks. All models successfully classified two representative multi-event sequences in real time with sub-cycle response times below 15 ms. However, although classification decisions occurred within one cycle, the end-to-end inference latency consistently exceeded three cycles, ranging from 50 to 90 ms. These results highlight a critical gap between algorithmic capability and protection-grade deployment, pointing to the need for further optimization and hardware acceleration. The findings establish a reproducible benchmark for sub-cycle anomaly detection and provide guidance for transitioning machine learning methods from research prototypes to real-world protection applications.

Emad Abukhousa, Saman Zonouz, A. P. Sakis Meliopoulos

School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

Efficient Neural Network Inference Time Series Classification Cybersecurity Time-Series Anomaly Detection Power Systems

May 16, 2026eess.SY

Empirical evaluation of Time Series Foundation Models for Day-ahead and Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting in Belgium

Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in volatile, complex electricity markets remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study provides a systematic empirical evaluation of several TSFMs, specifically Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt (developed by Amazon), and TimesFM 2.5 (provided by Google), for forecasting Belgian day-ahead and imbalance electricity prices. For both considered markets, Chronos-2 in ARX mode produces the most accurate forecasts. Compared with the best ensemble prediction from other machine learning methods, Chronos-2's Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is 5% lower for the day-ahead market. In contrast, the model yields 10% higher MAE predicting imbalance prices across all forecast horizons, except for the two-hour-ahead horizon. Moreover, we find that TSFMs exhibit genuine zero-shot forecasting skills but still struggle under extreme market conditions.

Chi Bui, Maria Margarida Mascarenhas, Arnaud Verstraeten +1

ELECTA-ESAT (KU Leuven) Leuven, Belgium · ELECTA-ESAT(KU Leuven) and Gridual Leuven, Belgium

Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Electricity Price Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models Power Systems

May 15, 2026cs.CR

GenAI-FDIA: Physics-Informed Generative Models for False Data Injection Attacks

Training and evaluating false data injection attack (FDIA) detectors for power systems is constrained by data scarcity. Operational grid measurements are commercially sensitive, and hand-crafted attacks fail to capture complex distributional structures imposed by network physics. We present \textsc{GenAI-FDIA}, a framework benchmarking a pool of

P{=}20

architectures for physics-compliant FDIA synthesis, spanning Wasserstein GANs, MMD-VAEs, normalising flows, diffusion models, and cross-family hybrids. These are evaluated across three IEEE testbeds (14-bus DC, 30-bus DC, and 14-bus AC) under a 60/20/20 chronological split using data-driven Bad Data Detection (BDD) threshold calibration. Our empirical results verify that these models generate high-fidelity attacks, with all architectures achieving evasion rates of

ε_{\text{BDD}} \ge 86.6\%

on the 14-bus network; additionally, limiting an attacker's topological knowledge induces a measurable degradation in stealthiness (

p \le 0.0022

). Crucially, we identify a previously unreported failure mode: applying affine physics projections directly in normalised feature spaces critically displaces the attack vector, collapsing BDD evasion from

{\sim}55\%

to

<\!2\%

on the 30-bus testbed. We resolve this via a novel inference-time harmoniser, restoring full stealthiness (

ε_{\text{BDD}}{=}100\%

) across all physics-informed variants without retraining. Finally, we isolate a covariance-collapse phenomenon (

κ\approx {-}0.076

) within advanced hybrid architectures and rectify it through 50-epoch warm-up schedules (

κ\to 0.785

,

Δ\text{MMD}={-}3.1\%

). Ultimately, \textsc{GenAI-FDIA} delivers a robust recovery blueprint applicable to any physics-constrained generative model deployed for power-system security.

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Muta Tah Hira

School of Computing, Engineering and Digital Technologies, Teesside University, UK · Smartifier Ltd, Stockton-on-Tees, UK

Cyber-Physical Systems Physics-Informed Generative Modeling False Data Injection Attacks Synthetic Data Generation Cybersecurity Physics-Informed ML+1

May 15, 2026cs.DC

Designing Datacenter Power Delivery Hierarchies for the AI Era

Demand for AI accelerators is rapidly increasing rack power density, with projections approaching 1MW per deployment by 2027. This poses a major challenge for datacenter power delivery designers. As power densities increase, a datacenter designed for a different target density may strand power, i.e., may be unable to use all the power that its delivery hierarchy has provisioned. Designs must remain efficient over long datacenter lifetimes and multiple hardware generations. Power utilization is particularly important as grid power capacity is a scarce resource in the AI era. Designing an efficient power delivery hierarchy for the long run is difficult because rack placement feasibility, workload impact, and cost depend jointly on electrical topology, deployment granularity, placement policy, power oversubscription, and workload mix. Moreover, each of these factors evolve over time, have inter-dependencies across multiple resource dimensions, and generally do not lend themselves to closed-form analysis. To address this challenge, we develop a framework for evaluating datacenter power delivery designs using throughput, power, and cost metrics over realistic arrival, oversubscription, and decommissioning sequences. The framework combines projection models for GPU, compute, and storage deployments with operational factors grounded in production data from Microsoft Azure. Our results show that multi-resource stranding materially changes deployable capacity, effective capital expenditure, and delivered performance, and quantify how rising density from rack- and pod-scale AI systems shapes these outcomes. For AI datacenter design, the relevant planning objective is not installed megawatts, but deployable capacity over time.

Grant Wilkins, Fiodar Kazhamiaka, Alok Gautam Kumbhare +2

Stanford University Stanford, CA, USA · Microsoft Azure Research Redmond, WA, USA

May 14, 2026eess.SY

Quantifying Cyber-Vulnerability in Power Electronics Systems via an Impedance-Based Attack Reachable Domain

Power electronics systems are increasingly exposed to cyber threats due to their integration with digital controllers and communication networks. However, an attacker-oriented metric is still lacking to quantify the extent to which a node can be pushed toward instability within a privilege-constrained action space. This letter proposes an impedance-based Attack Reachable Domain (ARD) framework that maps feasible adversarial actions to critical-eigenvalue migration through impedance reshaping. Based on the ARD, an Attack Penetration Index is defined to quantify node-level cyber-vulnerability by jointly characterizing the penetration of the nominal stability margin and the accessibility of successful destabilizing attacks within a privilege-constrained action space. To make the proposed assessment computable when inverter models are unavailable, a practical gray-box workflow is further established by integrating existing impedance identification and differentiable surrogate tools. Case studies on a 4-bus system and a modified IEEE 39-bus system show that coordinated cross-layer manipulations are markedly more damaging than isolated single-layer attacks, and that the proposed metric reveals vulnerability patterns that cannot be inferred from grid-strength indicators.

Hongwei Zhen, Ze Yu, Xin Xiang +2

Cyber-Physical Systems Reachability Analysis Cybersecurity Power Systems

May 12, 2026eess.SY

Grid-Orch: An LLM-Powered Orchestrator for Distribution Grid Simulation and Analytics

The power distribution engineering workforce faces a projected shortage of up to 1.5 million engineers by 2030, creating urgent demand for more accessible analysis tools. This paper introduces Grid-Orch, a framework that bridges Large Language Models (LLMs) and power system simulation through the Model Context Protocol (MCP), enabling engineers to perform complex distribution analyses via natural language. Using OpenDSS as the reference implementation, Grid-Orch provides 36 domain-specific tools across eleven categories, covering power flow, voltage analysis, quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation, and automated optimization. A provider-agnostic LLM layer supports both cloud-hosted (Gemini, Claude) and locally deployed (Ollama, llama-cpp) models, enabling air-gapped operation for security-sensitive utility environments. Three optimization skills, capacitor placement, voltage violation analysis, and overvoltage mitigation, extend the platform beyond single-tool queries to multi-step engineering workflows. Grid-Orch is delivered as an interactive web platform with chat-based interaction, a QSTS dashboard, and feeder topology visualization, and renders simulation results inline. Workflow demonstrations show that distribution analyses formerly requiring hours of scripting, such as distributed energy resource (DER) interconnection screening, complete in under two minutes through natural language, producing numerically identical results to direct OpenDSS scripting.

Boming Liu, Jin Dong, Jamie Lian

Electrification and Energy Infrastructures Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA

LLM Agent Orchestration LLM Tool Use Power Systems

May 12, 2026cs.AI

Towards Affordable Energy: A Gymnasium Environment for Electric Utility Demand-Response Programs

Extreme weather and volatile wholesale electricity markets expose residential consumers to catastrophic financial risks, yet demand response at the distribution level remains an underutilized tool for grid flexibility and energy affordability. While a demand-response program can shield consumers by issuing financial credits during high-price periods, optimizing this sequential decision-making process presents a unique challenge for reinforcement learning despite the plentiful offline historical smart meter and wholesale pricing data available publicly. Offline historical data fails to capture the dynamic, interactive feedback loop between an electric utility's pricing signals and customer acceptance and adaptation to a demand-response program. To address this, we introduce DR-Gym, an open-source, online Gymnasium-compatible environment designed to train and evaluate demand-response from the electric utility's perspective. Unlike existing device-level energy simulators, our environment focuses on the market-level electric utility setting and provides a rich observational space relevant to the electric utility. The simulator additionally features a regime-switching wholesale price model calibrated to real-world extreme events, alongside physics-based building demand profiles. For our learning signal, we use a configurable, multi-objective reward function for specifying diverse learning objectives. We demonstrate through baseline strategies and data snapshots the capability of our simulator to create realistic and learnable environments.

Jose E. Aguilar Escamilla, Lingdong Zhou, Xiangqi Zhu +1

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University, USA

RL Benchmarks Reinforcement Learning Demand Response Power Systems

May 12, 2026eess.SY

Multi-market value-stacking: Battery control for combined imbalance participation and non-uniform FCR bidding

The growing share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in modern power systems increases both grid imbalances and frequency deviations, reinforcing the need for ancillary services such as Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) and passive balancing. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are well-suited for these services, but prior research typically relies on uniform FCR bids that remain constant throughout the control period. Such static bids fail to fully exploit BESS flexibility, as they do not balance the trade-off between reserving energy for FCR delivery and using it for imbalance arbitrage, limiting the achievable value in value-stacking settings. To address this limitation, we propose a two-stage control framework for the European context that introduces non-uniform FCR bids. In the first stage, we derive a time-varying bid sequence using data-driven Monte Carlo (MC) optimization. In the second stage, a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent leverages the residual flexibility for real-time imbalance trading while proactively managing the State of Energy (SoE) to ensure compliance with FCR requirements. The framework is presented as a proof of concept, highlighting the potential benefits of time-varying bidding strategies. By incorporating daily cycle budgets and time-varying reserve commitments, our approach achieves a 7.56% profit increase compared to uniform baselines. These results show that non-uniform bidding can unlock additional value by more effectively aligning reserve obligations with rapidly changing imbalance opportunities.

Celle Hendrickx, Fabio Pavirani, Chris Develder

Gent University - imec, IDLab · Ghent, Belgium

May 12, 2026cs.LG

ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is critical for grid dispatch and reserve management, yet remains challenging due to the non-stationary, condition-dependent nature of wind generation. Meteorological exogenous variables carry substantial predictive information, but the most informative variable combination varies across sites, operating conditions, and prediction horizons. Existing deep learning approaches either treat exogenous inputs as generic auxiliary channels through uniform mixing or soft gating, or rely on fixed preprocessing steps such as PCA, without exploiting the physical structure of meteorological variables. We propose ECTO (Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator), a unified framework that decomposes exogenous variable modeling into two complementary modules. Physically-Grounded Variable Selection (PGVS) performs hierarchical, group-aware sparse selection over exogenous variables using a domain-informed physical prior and sparsemax activations, producing a compact, condition-adaptive exogenous context. Exogenous-Conditioned Regime Refinement (ECRR) routes the forecast through learned regime experts that apply gain--bias calibration and horizon-specific corrections via a mixture-of-experts paradigm. Experiments on three wind farms spanning different climates, capacities (66--200 MW), and exogenous dimensions (11--13 variables) demonstrate that ECTO achieves the lowest MSE across all sites, with relative improvements over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.2% to 5.2%, widening to 8.6% at the longer prediction horizon (

H=32

). Ablation analysis confirms that each exogenous-related component contributes positively (PGVS +1.84%, ECRR +2.86%), and interpretability analysis reveals that PGVS learns physically meaningful, site-specific variable selection patterns, while ECRR converges to well-separated calibration strategies consistent across sites.

Cao Yuan, Junjun Wang

Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan, 430048, Hubei, China

Time Series Forecasting Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Feature Selection Wind Power Forecasting Power Systems

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Newton's Lantern: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Finetuning AC Power Flow Warm Start Models

Neural warm starts can sharply reduce the number of Newton-Raphson iterations required to solve the AC power flow problem, but existing supervised approaches generalize poorly on heavily loaded instances near voltage collapse. We prove a lower bound on the Newton-Raphson iteration count that depends on the direction of the warm start error rather than on its magnitude, and show as a corollary that the bound becomes vacuous as the smallest singular value of the power-flow Jacobian shrinks, identifying the failure mode of supervised regression near the saddle-node bifurcation. Motivated by this analysis, we introduce Newton's Lantern, a finetuning pipeline that combines group relative policy optimization with a learned reward model trained on perturbations of the base model's predictions, using the iteration count itself as the supervisory signal. Across IEEE 118-bus, GOC 500-bus, and GOC 2000-bus benchmarks, Newton's Lantern is the only method that converges on every test snapshot while attaining the smallest mean iteration count.

Shourya Bose, Helgi Hilmarsson, Dhruv Suri

Pravah

RL Fine-Tuning Power Systems

May 10, 2026physics.plasm-ph

TokaMind for Power Grid: Cross-Domain Transfer from Fusion Plasma

TokaMind is a multi-modal transformer (MMT) foundation model pre-trained on tokamak plasma diagnostics data from MAST, where it was shown to outperform CNN-based approaches on fusion benchmarks. We investigate whether its learned representations generalize to physically distinct but structurally analogous domains. Through systematic experimentation across four domains-industrial bearing degradation, NASA CMAPSS turbofan degradation, and two independent power grid PMU datasets-we identify four transfer-favoring characteristics that help explain where TokaMind's pretrained representations are most effective. Power grid synchrophasor data matches this target-domain profile most directly, while industrial degradation datasets demonstrate that TokaMind can still yield useful performance under partial alignment, especially when task design and feature construction expose physically meaningful degradation structure. On the GESL/PNNL 500-event benchmark with provider-aware evaluation, TokaMind achieves test

\text{F1} = 0.837 \pm 0.040

(3seeds) for severe event classification. Our central finding, however, is not the aggregate score: classification difficulty is structurally determined by provider-level grid topology, not model capacity. In the single-window early-warning regime, TokaMind outperforms a CNN baseline (F10.889 vs.~0.878)--a reversal that disappears as more event windows are provided. Furthermore, Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators, used as a confidence gate rather than a classification label, improve F1 from 0.696 to 0.750 at 63% coverage-outperforming the CNN baseline (0.636) at any coverage level. These results establish the first cross-domain validation of TokaMind outside nuclear fusion and propose a transferability framework and revised evaluation protocol for multi-source PMU datasets.

JC Wu, Norton Lee, Kai Siang Chen

TaiScience Research Group, affiliated with Fu Jen Catholic University, Taiwan · Center for Geometry and Physics, Institute for Basic Science (IBS), South Korea · Fu Jen Catholic University, Taiwan

Time Series Classification Cross-Domain Transfer Learning Time-Series Foundation Models Cross-Dataset Generalization Power Systems

May 9, 2026q-fin.CP

A Market-Rule-Informed Neural Network for Efficient Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based price formation, heterogeneous input signals, and incomplete data availability caused by communication delays, publication lags, and measurement outages. This paper proposes a market-rule-informed neural forecasting framework that embeds imbalance price formation rules into the latent space of an expressive neural network. The proposed framework preserves raw signal information while exploiting transparent market-rule priors. We further analyze operational robustness by removing price-component information and characterize how forecasting performance scales with input length and forecasting horizon. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines, demonstrating that market-rule priors and expressive neural networks should be jointly used for accurate and computationally sustainable forecasting in industrial energy trading applications. The implementation is publicly available at https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/.

Runyao Yu, Julia Lin, Derek W. Bunn +6

Delft University of Technology · Austrian Institute of Technology · London Business School +2

Electricity Price Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Power Systems

May 9, 2026cs.CL

A Quantum Inspired Variational Kernel and Explainable AI Framework for Cross Region Solar and Wind Energy Forecasting

Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been concentrated either on classical recurrent networks or on monolithic foundation models that combine forecasting and explanation We develop a four stage hybrid framework that separates these concerns The first stage acquires hourly generation irradiance and surface weather records through public application programming interfaces The second stage trains three classical baselines autoregressive integrated moving average gradient boosted regression trees and a two layer long short term memory network and produces a strong point forecast together with a residual error series The third stage corrects the residual through a quantum inspired variational kernel built on a six qubit hardware efficient ansatz with three repeated entangling layers The fourth stage uses generative artificial intelligence strictly as an explainability layer that reads the measured benchmark numbers and produces a structured natural language interpretation Across three regions drawn from open public archives Iberian solar North Sea wind and a mixed Texas trace the proposed configuration stays within one percentage point of the strongest classical baseline on the in domain forecasting task and the quantum inspired kernel separates calm and stormy weather regimes with a Fisher discriminant ratio approximately fifteen fold higher than a tuned radial basis kernel

Pavan Manjunath, Thomas Prufer

Independent Research Scholar, Germany

Time Series Forecasting Quantum-Inspired ML Solar Power Forecasting Quantum Kernel Methods Spatiotemporal Forecasting Wind Power Forecasting+1

May 7, 2026cs.LG

Inductive Power Grid Cascading Failure Analysis with GRU-Gated Graph Attention

Identifying vulnerable transmission lines in power grids before a cascading failure occurs is challenging: existing methods can learn inter-line failure correlations from cascade data, but they are trained and evaluated on a single grid, and transferring the learned knowledge to an unseen grid remains an open problem. We address this by training a single Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)-gated Graph Attention Network on combined cascading failure data from limited training grids and applying it directly to any unseen grid without retraining. A GRU gate controls what information each node retains or discards at each cascade iteration. Empirical evaluation shows that the model transfers zero-shot to multiple new grids spanning inter-time and inter-domain settings. Using information extracted from the trained model, we consistently identify more vulnerable lines than established structural and electrical baselines.

Tianxin Zhou, Xiang Li, Haibing Lu

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, USA · Dept. of Information Systems & Analytics, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, USA

Graph Attention Networks Graph Representation Learning Power Systems

May 7, 2026cs.LG

WARP: A Benchmark for Primal-Dual Warm-Starting of Interior-Point Solvers

Solving AC Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF) is of central importance in electricity market operations, where interior-point methods (IPMs) such as IPOPT are the standard solvers. A growing body of work uses machine learning to predict primal warm-start iterates, reporting iteration reductions of 30-46%. We show that these reported gains rest on an inappropriate evaluation baseline: prior methods benchmark against the flat start

V_m = 1, V_a = 0

, whereas the solver's actual default - the variable-bound midpoint

(l+u)/2

- is near-optimal for log-barrier centrality. Against this corrected baseline, no primal-only warm-start method reduces solver iterations. We trace the failure to a geometric property of interior-point methods: primal prediction accuracy is anticorrelated with convergence speed, and providing the ground-truth optimal solution

x^*

without dual variables causes the solver to diverge. Oracle experiments establish that the complete primal-dual-barrier state

(x^*, λ^*, z^*, μ^*)

reduces IPOPT iterations from 23 to 3 - an 85% reduction that is structurally inaccessible to primal-only methods. To enable rigorous evaluation of warm-start methods on this task, we release a benchmark suite comprising dual-labeled AC-OPF datasets with IPOPT-extracted solutions, a corrected evaluation protocol, and WARP - a topology-conditioned encode-process-decode interaction network that predicts the full interior-point state

(\hat{x}, \hatλ, \hat{z}, \hatμ)

on the heterogeneous constraint graph. WARP achieves a 76% reduction in IPOPT iterations while natively accommodating N-1 contingency topology variations without retraining.

Dhruv Suri, Helgi Hilmarsson, Shourya Bose

Pravah

Primal-Dual Optimization Graph Neural Networks Optimal Power Flow Constrained Optimization Power Systems

May 6, 2026cs.LG

OpenG2G: A Simulation Platform for AI Datacenter-Grid Runtime Coordination

AI's growing compute demand and new datacenter buildouts present major capacity and reliability challenges for the electricity grid, leading to multi-year interconnection delays for new datacenters and bottlenecking AI growth. To ease this strain, datacenters increasingly offer rapid power flexibility in response to grid signals, where the datacenter can increase or decrease its power consumption by adapting its workload in real time. In order to understand the impact of large datacenters on the grid and to facilitate the design of effective coordination strategies, we build OpenG2G, a simulation platform for AI datacenter-grid runtime coordination. We show that OpenG2G is capable of answering a wide range of coordination questions by allowing users to implement and compare various control paradigms (including classic, optimization, and learning-based controllers), and quantify how AI model and deployment choices affect datacenter flexibility and coordination outcomes. This versatility is enabled by OpenG2G's modular and extensible architecture: a datacenter backend driven by real measurements of production-grade AI services, a grid backend built on high-fidelity grid simulators, and a generic controller interface that closes the loop between them. We describe the design of OpenG2G and demonstrate its usefulness through realistic grid scenarios and AI workloads.

Jae-Won Chung, Zhirui Liang, Yanyong Mao +3

University of Michigan

Demand Response Power Systems