Power Systems

Extreme weather and volatile wholesale electricity markets expose residential consumers to catastrophic financial risks, yet demand response at the distribution level remains an underutilized tool for grid flexibility and energy affordability. While a demand-response program can shield consumers by issuing financial credits during high-price periods, optimizing this sequential decision-making process presents a unique challenge for reinforcement learning despite the plentiful offline historical smart meter and wholesale pricing data available publicly. Offline historical data fails to capture the dynamic, interactive feedback loop between an electric utility's pricing signals and customer acceptance and adaptation to a demand-response program. To address this, we introduce DR-Gym, an open-source, online Gymnasium-compatible environment designed to train and evaluate demand-response from the electric utility's perspective. Unlike existing device-level energy simulators, our environment focuses on the market-level electric utility setting and provides a rich observational space relevant to the electric utility. The simulator additionally features a regime-switching wholesale price model calibrated to real-world extreme events, alongside physics-based building demand profiles. For our learning signal, we use a configurable, multi-objective reward function for specifying diverse learning objectives. We demonstrate through baseline strategies and data snapshots the capability of our simulator to create realistic and learnable environments.

The growing share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in modern power systems increases both grid imbalances and frequency deviations, reinforcing the need for ancillary services such as Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) and passive balancing. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are well-suited for these services, but prior research typically relies on uniform FCR bids that remain constant throughout the control period. Such static bids fail to fully exploit BESS flexibility, as they do not balance the trade-off between reserving energy for FCR delivery and using it for imbalance arbitrage, limiting the achievable value in value-stacking settings. To address this limitation, we propose a two-stage control framework for the European context that introduces non-uniform FCR bids. In the first stage, we derive a time-varying bid sequence using data-driven Monte Carlo (MC) optimization. In the second stage, a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent leverages the residual flexibility for real-time imbalance trading while proactively managing the State of Energy (SoE) to ensure compliance with FCR requirements. The framework is presented as a proof of concept, highlighting the potential benefits of time-varying bidding strategies. By incorporating daily cycle budgets and time-varying reserve commitments, our approach achieves a 7.56% profit increase compared to uniform baselines. These results show that non-uniform bidding can unlock additional value by more effectively aligning reserve obligations with rapidly changing imbalance opportunities.

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is critical for grid dispatch and reserve management, yet remains challenging due to the non-stationary, condition-dependent nature of wind generation. Meteorological exogenous variables carry substantial predictive information, but the most informative variable combination varies across sites, operating conditions, and prediction horizons. Existing deep learning approaches either treat exogenous inputs as generic auxiliary channels through uniform mixing or soft gating, or rely on fixed preprocessing steps such as PCA, without exploiting the physical structure of meteorological variables. We propose ECTO (Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator), a unified framework that decomposes exogenous variable modeling into two complementary modules. Physically-Grounded Variable Selection (PGVS) performs hierarchical, group-aware sparse selection over exogenous variables using a domain-informed physical prior and sparsemax activations, producing a compact, condition-adaptive exogenous context. Exogenous-Conditioned Regime Refinement (ECRR) routes the forecast through learned regime experts that apply gain--bias calibration and horizon-specific corrections via a mixture-of-experts paradigm. Experiments on three wind farms spanning different climates, capacities (66--200 MW), and exogenous dimensions (11--13 variables) demonstrate that ECTO achieves the lowest MSE across all sites, with relative improvements over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.2% to 5.2%, widening to 8.6% at the longer prediction horizon ($H=32$). Ablation analysis confirms that each exogenous-related component contributes positively (PGVS +1.84%, ECRR +2.86%), and interpretability analysis reveals that PGVS learns physically meaningful, site-specific variable selection patterns, while ECRR converges to well-separated calibration strategies consistent across sites.

Neural warm starts can sharply reduce the number of Newton-Raphson iterations required to solve the AC power flow problem, but existing supervised approaches generalize poorly on heavily loaded instances near voltage collapse. We prove a lower bound on the Newton-Raphson iteration count that depends on the direction of the warm start error rather than on its magnitude, and show as a corollary that the bound becomes vacuous as the smallest singular value of the power-flow Jacobian shrinks, identifying the failure mode of supervised regression near the saddle-node bifurcation. Motivated by this analysis, we introduce Newton's Lantern, a finetuning pipeline that combines group relative policy optimization with a learned reward model trained on perturbations of the base model's predictions, using the iteration count itself as the supervisory signal. Across IEEE 118-bus, GOC 500-bus, and GOC 2000-bus benchmarks, Newton's Lantern is the only method that converges on every test snapshot while attaining the smallest mean iteration count.

TokaMind is a multi-modal transformer (MMT) foundation model pre-trained on tokamak plasma diagnostics data from MAST, where it was shown to outperform CNN-based approaches on fusion benchmarks. We investigate whether its learned representations generalize to physically distinct but structurally analogous domains. Through systematic experimentation across four domains-industrial bearing degradation, NASA CMAPSS turbofan degradation, and two independent power grid PMU datasets-we identify four transfer-favoring characteristics that help explain where TokaMind's pretrained representations are most effective. Power grid synchrophasor data matches this target-domain profile most directly, while industrial degradation datasets demonstrate that TokaMind can still yield useful performance under partial alignment, especially when task design and feature construction expose physically meaningful degradation structure. On the GESL/PNNL 500-event benchmark with provider-aware evaluation, TokaMind achieves test $\text{F1} = 0.837 \pm 0.040$ (3seeds) for severe event classification. Our central finding, however, is not the aggregate score: classification difficulty is structurally determined by provider-level grid topology, not model capacity. In the single-window early-warning regime, TokaMind outperforms a CNN baseline (F10.889 vs.~0.878)--a reversal that disappears as more event windows are provided. Furthermore, Critical Slowing Down (CSD) indicators, used as a confidence gate rather than a classification label, improve F1 from 0.696 to 0.750 at 63% coverage-outperforming the CNN baseline (0.636) at any coverage level. These results establish the first cross-domain validation of TokaMind outside nuclear fusion and propose a transferability framework and revised evaluation protocol for multi-source PMU datasets.

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based price formation, heterogeneous input signals, and incomplete data availability caused by communication delays, publication lags, and measurement outages. This paper proposes a market-rule-informed neural forecasting framework that embeds imbalance price formation rules into the latent space of an expressive neural network. The proposed framework preserves raw signal information while exploiting transparent market-rule priors. We further analyze operational robustness by removing price-component information and characterize how forecasting performance scales with input length and forecasting horizon. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with substantially fewer trainable parameters and shorter training time than generic deep learning baselines, demonstrating that market-rule priors and expressive neural networks should be jointly used for accurate and computationally sustainable forecasting in industrial energy trading applications. The implementation is publicly available at https://runyao-yu.github.io/MRINN/.

Reliable short horizon forecasting of solar and wind generation is a structural prerequisite of any modern power system yet most published forecasters are tuned and evaluated on a single climatic regime and most algorithmic novelty has been concentrated either on classical recurrent networks or on monolithic foundation models that combine forecasting and explanation We develop a four stage hybrid framework that separates these concerns The first stage acquires hourly generation irradiance and surface weather records through public application programming interfaces The second stage trains three classical baselines autoregressive integrated moving average gradient boosted regression trees and a two layer long short term memory network and produces a strong point forecast together with a residual error series The third stage corrects the residual through a quantum inspired variational kernel built on a six qubit hardware efficient ansatz with three repeated entangling layers The fourth stage uses generative artificial intelligence strictly as an explainability layer that reads the measured benchmark numbers and produces a structured natural language interpretation Across three regions drawn from open public archives Iberian solar North Sea wind and a mixed Texas trace the proposed configuration stays within one percentage point of the strongest classical baseline on the in domain forecasting task and the quantum inspired kernel separates calm and stormy weather regimes with a Fisher discriminant ratio approximately fifteen fold higher than a tuned radial basis kernel

Identifying vulnerable transmission lines in power grids before a cascading failure occurs is challenging: existing methods can learn inter-line failure correlations from cascade data, but they are trained and evaluated on a single grid, and transferring the learned knowledge to an unseen grid remains an open problem. We address this by training a single Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)-gated Graph Attention Network on combined cascading failure data from limited training grids and applying it directly to any unseen grid without retraining. A GRU gate controls what information each node retains or discards at each cascade iteration. Empirical evaluation shows that the model transfers zero-shot to multiple new grids spanning inter-time and inter-domain settings. Using information extracted from the trained model, we consistently identify more vulnerable lines than established structural and electrical baselines.

Solving AC Optimal Power Flow (AC-OPF) is of central importance in electricity market operations, where interior-point methods (IPMs) such as IPOPT are the standard solvers. A growing body of work uses machine learning to predict primal warm-start iterates, reporting iteration reductions of 30-46%. We show that these reported gains rest on an inappropriate evaluation baseline: prior methods benchmark against the flat start $V_m = 1, V_a = 0$, whereas the solver's actual default - the variable-bound midpoint $(l+u)/2$ - is near-optimal for log-barrier centrality. Against this corrected baseline, no primal-only warm-start method reduces solver iterations. We trace the failure to a geometric property of interior-point methods: primal prediction accuracy is anticorrelated with convergence speed, and providing the ground-truth optimal solution $x^*$ without dual variables causes the solver to diverge. Oracle experiments establish that the complete primal-dual-barrier state $(x^*, λ^*, z^*, μ^*)$ reduces IPOPT iterations from 23 to 3 - an 85% reduction that is structurally inaccessible to primal-only methods. To enable rigorous evaluation of warm-start methods on this task, we release a benchmark suite comprising dual-labeled AC-OPF datasets with IPOPT-extracted solutions, a corrected evaluation protocol, and WARP - a topology-conditioned encode-process-decode interaction network that predicts the full interior-point state $(\hat{x}, \hatλ, \hat{z}, \hatμ)$ on the heterogeneous constraint graph. WARP achieves a 76% reduction in IPOPT iterations while natively accommodating N-1 contingency topology variations without retraining.

AI's growing compute demand and new datacenter buildouts present major capacity and reliability challenges for the electricity grid, leading to multi-year interconnection delays for new datacenters and bottlenecking AI growth. To ease this strain, datacenters increasingly offer rapid power flexibility in response to grid signals, where the datacenter can increase or decrease its power consumption by adapting its workload in real time. In order to understand the impact of large datacenters on the grid and to facilitate the design of effective coordination strategies, we build OpenG2G, a simulation platform for AI datacenter-grid runtime coordination. We show that OpenG2G is capable of answering a wide range of coordination questions by allowing users to implement and compare various control paradigms (including classic, optimization, and learning-based controllers), and quantify how AI model and deployment choices affect datacenter flexibility and coordination outcomes. This versatility is enabled by OpenG2G's modular and extensible architecture: a datacenter backend driven by real measurements of production-grade AI services, a grid backend built on high-fidelity grid simulators, and a generic controller interface that closes the loop between them. We describe the design of OpenG2G and demonstrate its usefulness through realistic grid scenarios and AI workloads.

We study day-ahead transmission topology control for high-voltage grid operation under $N-1$ security constraints. The operational task is to select, over a 24-hour horizon, a sequence of substation topologies obtained via busbar-coupler switching to relieve line overloads while limiting switching effort and topological complexity. We formulate this task as a sequential multi-objective optimization problem with four objectives used in TSO decision making: worst-case $N-1$ line loading, maximum topological depth, number of topology changes, and time spent outside the reference topology. We propose an exact block algorithm that exploits the temporal structure of topology plans: consecutive hours with the same topology are represented as blocks, enabling enumeration of the complete Pareto front over the admissible set of topologies under fixed operational bounds on depth and switching. We also develop a tailored NSGA-III-based evolutionary heuristic and evaluate it against the exact front. Using real operational data from the Dutch high-voltage transmission grid operated by TenneT, the block algorithm computes the exact front for a highly congested day in under three minutes after topology-level load-flow preprocessing. The exact front reveals low-switching plans with no DC $N-1$ thermal overloads that the tested evolutionary search fails to find. The proposed method, therefore, provides both a practical day-ahead decision-support tool for transmission operators and a benchmark for heuristic and learning-based topology-control methods.

The increasing penetration of renewable energy has introduced substantial volatility into wholesale electricity markets, complicating the optimal bidding strategies for power producers. Traditional Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches often struggle to balance profit maximization with risk management, frequently overfitting to specific market conditions or failing to account for the stochastic spread between Day-Ahead (DA) and Real-Time (RT) settlements. To address these challenges, this paper makes two primary contributions. First, we introduce and open-source a high-fidelity gymnasium environment for two-settlement electricity market bidding. Grounded in extensive empirical data from the PJM Interconnection, the environment explicitly models the interplay between DA commitments and RT deviations, providing a standardized testbed for general and risk-sensitive agents. Second, we propose MARS-DA (Multi-Agent Regime-Switching for Day-Ahead markets), a novel hierarchical framework that orchestrates distinct sub-policies for risk management and profit seeking. MARS-DA utilizes a top-level Meta-Controller to dynamically blend the actions of two specialized base agents: a "Safe Agent" that optimizes for reliable DA allocation and a "Speculator Agent" that targets volatile RT arbitrage opportunities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MARS-DA achieves superior risk-adjusted returns compared to state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining robust regime alignment during periods of extreme market volatility.

For over a century, the electric grid has relied on a single statistical assumption: load diversity, the principle that the uncorrelated demands of millions of small consumers produce a smooth, predictable aggregate. AI training data centers break that assumption. A single hyperscale training campus can draw power comparable to a mid-sized city, driven by one tightly synchronized job whose demand swings by hundreds of megawatts in seconds. This paper argues that the resulting entanglement of compute and power infrastructure requires a shift from implicit coexistence to explicit co-development between the historically decoupled data center and electric power industries. We introduce the distinct design principles, operational philosophies, and economic incentives of each sector, and show why their cultural and technical misalignment makes coordination difficult. We identify key research directions, from joint capacity planning, multi-timescale control, a compute--power protocol stack, to market innovation, that must be pursued to power the future of AI sustainably and reliably.

AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) is foundational yet computationally expensive in power grid operations, driving learning-based surrogates for large-scale grid analysis. These surrogates, however, often fail to generalize across network topologies, a critical gap for deployment on grids not seen during training and for routine operational what-if studies. We introduce LUMINA-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark suite for ACOPF surrogate learning covering multi-topology pretraining, transfer, and adaptation. The benchmark evaluates homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures under single- and multi-topology learning settings using unified metrics that capture both predictive accuracy and physics-informed constraint violations. We additionally compare constraint-aware training objectives, including MSE, augmented Lagrangian, and violation-based Lagrangian losses, to characterize accuracy-robustness trade-offs across settings. Data processing, training, and evaluation frameworks are open-sourced as the LUMINA suite to support reproducibility and accelerate future research on feasibility-aware OPF surrogates.

AC Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) and Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) are fundamental optimization problems in power system operations. ACOPF serves as the physical backbone of grid simulation and real-time operation, enforcing nonlinear power flow feasibility and network limits, while SCUC represents a core market-level decision process that schedules generation under operational and security constraints. Although these problems share the same underlying transmission network and physical laws, they differ in decision variables and temporal coupling, and prior learning-based approaches address them in isolation, resulting in disjoint models and representations.We propose a learning framework that jointly models ACOPF and SCUC through a shared graph-based backbone that captures grid topology and physical interactions, coupled with task-specific decoders for static and temporal decision-making. Training includes solver supervision with physics-informed objectives to enforce AC feasibility and inter-temporal operational constraints. To evaluate generalization, we assess cross-case transfer on unseen grid topologies for ACOPF and SCUC without retraining, and systematic generalization on the UC-ACOPF problem using unsupervised, physics-based objectives and a power-dispatch consensus mechanism. Experiments across multiple grid scales demonstrate improved performance and transferability relative to existing learning-based baselines, indicating that the model can support learning across heterogeneous power system optimization problems.

Generative models for time-series imputation achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, yet provide no finite-sample reliability guarantees, a critical limitation in power systems where imputed values inform dispatch and planning. We introduce SPLICE (Self-supervised Predictive Latent Inpainting with Conformal Envelopes), a modular framework coupling latent generative imputation with distribution-free, online-adaptive prediction intervals. A JEPA encoder maps daily load segments into a 64-dimensional latent space; a conditional latent bridge with four sampling modes generates candidate gap trajectories; an hourly-conditioned decoder maps back to signal space; and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) wraps the output with coverage-guaranteed prediction bands. The flow-matching variant achieves comparable quality to DDIM in 5--10 ODE steps (5-10x speedup). On thirteen load datasets (nine proprietary, three UCI Electricity, ETTh1), SPLICE achieves the lowest mean Load-only MSE (0.056), winning 9/12 non-degenerate datasets at 91-day gaps and 18/32 across all gap lengths vs. five established baselines, and produces the best CRPS (0.161, -18.3% vs. the strongest competitor). ACI delivers 93--95% empirical coverage, correcting under-coverage failures of up to 7.5 pp observed with static conformal prediction. A pooled JEPA encoder trained on nine feeds transfers to four unseen domains, matching or exceeding per-dataset oracles with only a quick bridge fine-tuning.

The incorporation of fairness into the distribution network (DN) planning and operation has become a key goal of recent studies. The cost of implementing fairness, denominated the price of fairness (PoF), covers the efficiency that is renounced for attaining social cohesion through fair outcomes. Locational disparity makes fairness schemes emerge to level the consumers playing field. However, fairness encompasses a range of notions. From egalitarian to merit-based criteria, various metrics are implemented as a tool for measuring equitable utility distribution. These have different mathematical complexities, from linear to non-linear programming cases, which affect their overall applicability. Hence, this study compiles the overarching fairness notions and metrics, reviewing how these affect stakeholders and the inherent mathematical optimisation in resource allocation problems. The aim is to support consistent and transparent planning and decision-making within DN operations.

Coordinating large populations of grid-edge devices requires learning methods that remain fully decentralised in deployment while still respecting three-phase AC distribution-network physics. This paper proposes gradient-based multi-agent proximal learning (GradMAP) to address this challenge. GradMAP trains independent neural-network policies for each agent without any parameter sharing, and each agent uses only its own local observation for online decision-making without communication. During offline training, GradMAP embeds a differentiable three-phase AC power-flow model in a primal-dual learning loop and uses implicit differentiation to propagate exact network-constraint violations to update the policy parameters. To speed up training, GradMAP reuses expensive environment gradients through a proximal surrogate within a trust region defined in the more direct policy-output (action) space, instead of the probability distribution space used in other works, such as PPO. In case studies with 1,000 agents managing batteries, heat pumps, and controllable generators on the IEEE 123-bus feeder, GradMAP learns decentralised policies that minimise three-phase AC load-flow constraint violations within 15 minutes of training on a single workstation-class NVIDIA RTX PRO 5000 Blackwell 48GB GPU. This is a 3--5x training speed-up over gradient-based self-supervised learning benchmarks and substantially better training efficiency than multi-agent reinforcement-learning benchmarks. In out-of-sample tests, GradMAP also delivers among the lowest operating cost and constraint violations.

Line current differential relays (LCDRs) are measurement-driven relays that rely on time-synchronized multi-phase current waveforms to infer internal faults in AC and DC power networks. In inverter-based microgrids, however, the increasing reliance on digitally communicated measurements exposes LCDRs to false-data injection attacks (FDIAs), in which adversaries manipulate remote measurement streams to create protection-triggering yet physically inconsistent current trajectories. This paper addresses this emerging measurement integrity problem by introducing a measurement integrity validation scheme that operates as a supervisory instrumentation layer for modern LCDRs. The proposed scheme interprets short windows of synchronized instantaneous current measurements recorded during relay operation and assesses their physical consistency to distinguish genuine fault-induced trajectories from cyber-manipulated measurement streams. A recurrent neural network is trained offline using only relay-available current measurements and exploits the temporal structure of differential current waveforms, which remains informative in inverter-dominated systems where current magnitude is no longer a reliable observable. The method requires no additional sensors, auxiliary protection elements, or prior knowledge of network topology, and is applicable to both AC and DC LCDRs without structural modification. The proposed measurement validation scheme is evaluated on an islanded inverter-based microgrid under a comprehensive set of fault and FDIA scenarios, demonstrating high detection accuracy while preserving relay dependability. Hardware-in-the-loop validation using an OPAL-RT real-time simulator confirms that the scheme satisfies protection timing constraints and can operate in real time under realistic operating conditions.

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is a cornerstone of U.S. grid reliability; however, prevailing deep learning models remain opaque, limiting operator trust during extreme weather. A unified, interpretable, physics-informed ensemble framework is proposed, integrating a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) branch for local feature extraction and a Transformer branch for long-range dependency modeling; the branches are fused through a validation-optimized weighted ensemble and regularized by a physics-informed loss derived from the piecewise parabolic temperature-demand relationship of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Post-hoc interpretability is provided through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) with the DeepExplainer backend, yielding global and event-level attributions. Using eight years of ERCOT hourly load data (2018-2025) fused with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) records from three Texas stations, the framework achieves 713 MW MAE, 812 MW RMSE, and 1.18% MAPE on the test window. For Hampel-flagged extreme events, MAPE falls by 20.7% relative to its Transformer branch and by 40.5% relative to its CNN branch; an ablation confirms that the parabolic and ramp constraints drive a 14.7% RMSE reduction. SHAP analysis reveals a regime shift: temperature dominates under normal operation, whereas wind speed and precipitation become more influential during cold fronts and heatwaves.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) as assistants in electric grid operations promises to streamline compliance and decision-making but exposes new vulnerabilities to prompt-based adversarial attacks. This paper evaluates the risk of jailbreaking LLMs, i.e., circumventing safety alignments to produce outputs violating regulatory standards, assuming threats from authorized users, such as operators, who craft malicious prompts to elicit non-compliant guidance. Three state-of-the-art LLMs (OpenAI's GPT-4o mini, Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash-Lite, and Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Haiku) were tested against Baseline, BitBypass, and DeepInception jailbreaking methods across scenarios derived from nine NERC Reliability Standards (EOP, TOP, and CIP). In the initial broad experiment, the overall Attack Success Rate (ASR) was 33.1%, with DeepInception proving most effective at 63.17% ASR. Claude 3.5 Haiku exhibited complete resistance (0% ASR), while Gemini 2.0 Flash-Lite was most vulnerable (55.04% ASR) and GPT-4o mini moderately susceptible (44.34% ASR). A follow-up experiment refining malicious wording in Baseline and BitBypass attacks yielded a 30.6% ASR, confirming that subtle prompt adjustments can enhance simpler methods' efficacy.

Maintaining instantaneous balance between electricity supply and demand is critical for reliability and grid instability. System operators achieve this through solving the task of Unit Commitment (UC),ca high dimensional large-scale Mixed-integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem that is strictly and heavily governed by the grid physical constraints. As grid integrate variable renewable sources, and new technologies such as long duration storage in the grid, UC must be optimally solved for multi-day horizons and potentially with greater frequency. Therefore, traditional MILP solvers increasingly struggle to compute solutions within these tightening operational time limits. To bypass these computational bottlenecks, this paper proposes a novel framework utilizing a transformer-based architecture to predict generator commitment schedules over a 72-hour horizon. Also, because raw predictions in highly dimensional spaces often yield physically infeasible results, the pipeline integrates the self-attention network with deterministic post-processing heuristics that systematically enforce minimum up/down times and minimize excess capacity. Finally, these refined predictions are utilized as a warm start for a downstream MILP solver, while employing a confidence-based variable fixation strategy to drastically reduce the combinatorial search space. Validated on a single-bus test system, the complete multi-stage pipeline achieves 100% feasibility and significantly accelerates computation times. Notably, in approximately 20% of test instances, the proposed model reached a feasible operational schedule with a lower overall system cost than relying solely on the solver.

The ongoing shift towards decentralization of the electric energy sector, driven by the growing electrification across end-use sectors, and widespread adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), necessitates their active participation in the electricity markets to support grid operations. Furthermore, with bi-directional energy and communication flows becoming standard, intelligent, easy-to-deploy, resource-conservative demand-side participation is expected to play a critical role in securing power grid operational flexibility and market efficiency. This work proposes a market engagement framework that leverages a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MARL) approach to enable individual prosumers to participate in peer-to-peer retail auctions and further aggregate these intelligent prosumers to facilitate effective DER participation in wholesale markets. Ultimately, a Stackelberg game is proposed to coordinate this hierarchical MARL-based DER market participation framework toward enhanced market performance.

Fault location in distribution grids is critical for reliability and minimizing outage durations. Yet, it remains challenging due to partial observability, given sparse measurement infrastructure. Recent works show promising results by combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for spatio-temporal learning. Still, many modern GNN architectures remain untested for this grid application, while existing GNN solutions have not explored GNN topology definitions beyond simply adopting the full grid topology to construct the GNN graph. We address these gaps by (i) systematically comparing a newly proposed graph-forming strategy (measured-only) to the traditional full-topology approach, and (ii) introducing STGNN (Spatio-temporal GNN) models based on GraphSAGE and an improved Graph Attention (GATv2), for distribution grid fault location; (iii) benchmarking them against state-of-the-art STGNN and RNN baselines on the IEEE 123-bus feeder. In our experiments, all evaluated STGNN variants achieve high performance and consistently outperform a pure RNN baseline, with improvements up to 11 percentage points F1. Among STGNN models, the newly explored RGATv2 and RGSAGE achieve only marginally higher F1 scores. Still, STGNNs demonstrate superior stability, with tight confidence intervals (within +/- 1.4%) compared to the RNN baseline (up to +/- 7.5%) across different experiment runs. Finally, our proposed reduced GNN topology (measured-only) shows clear benefits in both (i) model training time (6-fold reduction) and (ii) model performance (up to 11 points F1). This suggests that measured-only graphs offer a more practical, efficient, and robust framework for partially observable distribution grids.

Distribution networks with high penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) increasingly rely on communication networks to coordinate grid-interactive control. While many distributed control schemes have been proposed, they are often evaluated under idealized communication assumptions, making it difficult to assess their performance under realistic network conditions. This work presents an implementation-driven evaluation of a representative virtual power plant (VPP) dispatch algorithm using a co-simulation framework that couples a linearized distribution-system model with packet-level downlink emulation in ns-3. The study considers a modified IEEE~37-node feeder with high photovoltaic penetration and a primal--dual VPP dispatch that simultaneously targets feeder-head active power tracking and voltage regulation. Communication effects are introduced only on the downlink path carrying dual-variable updates, where per-DER packet delays and a hold-last-value strategy are modeled. Results show that, under ideal communication, the dispatch achieves close tracking of the feeder-head power reference while maintaining voltages within the prescribed limits at selected buses. When realistic downlink delay is introduced, the same controller exhibits large oscillations in feeder-head power and more frequent voltage limit violations. These findings highlight that distributed DER control performance can be strongly influenced by communication behavior and motivate evaluation frameworks that explicitly incorporate network dynamics into the assessment of grid-interactive control schemes.

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

As power systems transition toward renewable-rich and inverter-dominated operations, accurate time-domain dynamic analysis becomes increasingly critical. Such analysis supports key operational tasks, including transient stability assessment, dynamic security analysis, contingency screening, and post-fault trajectory evaluation. In practice, these tasks may operate under several challenges, including unknown and time-varying system parameters, privacy constraints on data sharing, and the need for fast online inference. Existing learning-based approaches are typically trained for individual systems and therefore lack generalization across operating conditions and physical parameters. Hence, this paper proposes LArge Scale Small ODE (LASS)-ODE-Power, a learning framework for general-purpose time-domain prediction. The proposed approach leverages large-scale pretraining on more than 40 GB of DAE or ordinary differential-equation (ODE) trajectories to learn transferable representations. The resulting model supports trajectory prediction from short measurement prefixes across diverse dynamic regimes, including electromechanical and inverter-driven systems. Hence, the model can be directly used without data sharing in a zero-shot setting. In addition, the proposed architecture incorporates parallel and linearized computation to achieve fast inference. Moreover, to enhance task-specific performance in power systems, a specialized fine-tuning strategy is developed based on approximately 1 GB of heterogeneous power-system dynamic data. Extensive experiments over diverse power-system simulation scenarios demonstrate that LASS-ODE-Power consistently outperforms existing learning-based models in trajectory prediction accuracy with efficient inference.

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only to support operational decisions, such as optimal bidding strategies and balancing power preparation, but also to reduce economic risk and improve market efficiency. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they quantify uncertainty stemming from renewable intermittency, market coupling, and regulatory changes, enabling market participants to make informed decisions that minimize losses and optimize expected revenues. However, it remains an open question which models to employ to produce accurate forecasts. Should these be task-specific machine learning (ML) models or Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs)? In this work, we compare four models for day-ahead probabilistic EPF (PEPF) in European bidding zones: a deterministic NHITS backbone with Quantile-Regression Averaging (NHITS+QRA) and a conditional Normalizing-Flow forecaster (NF) are compared with two TSFMs, namely Moirai and ChronosX. On the one hand, we find that TSFMs outperform task-specific deep learning models trained from scratch in terms of CRPS, Energy Score, and predictive interval calibration across market conditions. On the other hand, we find that well-configured task-specific models, particularly NHITS combined with QRA, achieve performance very close to TSFMs, and in some scenarios, such as when supplied with additional informative feature groups or adapted via few-shot learning from other European markets, they can even surpass TSFMs. Overall, our findings show that while TSFMs offer expressive modeling capabilities, conventional models remain highly competitive, emphasizing the need to weigh computational expense against marginal performance improvements in PEPF.

Reinforcement learning has shown promise for automating power-grid operation tasks such as topology control and congestion management. However, its deployment in real-world power systems remains limited by strict safety requirements, brittleness under rare disturbances, and poor generalization to unseen grid topologies. In safety-critical infrastructure, catastrophic failures cannot be tolerated, and learning-based controllers must operate within hard physical constraints. This paper proposes a safety-constrained hierarchical control framework for power-grid operation that explicitly decouples long-horizon decision-making from real-time feasibility enforcement. A high-level reinforcement learning policy proposes abstract control actions, while a deterministic runtime safety shield filters unsafe actions using fast forward simulation. Safety is enforced as a runtime invariant, independent of policy quality or training distribution. The proposed framework is evaluated on the Grid2Op benchmark suite under nominal conditions, forced line-outage stress tests, and zero-shot deployment on the ICAPS 2021 large-scale transmission grid without retraining. Results show that flat reinforcement learning policies are brittle under stress, while safety-only methods are overly conservative. In contrast, the proposed hierarchical and safety-aware approach achieves longer episode survival, lower peak line loading, and robust zero-shot generalization to unseen grids. These results indicate that safety and generalization in power-grid control are best achieved through architectural design rather than increasingly complex reward engineering, providing a practical path toward deployable learning-based controllers for real-world energy systems.

The stable operation of autonomous off-grid photovoltaic systems requires solar forecasting algorithms that respect atmospheric thermodynamics. Contemporary deep learning models consistently exhibit critical anomalies, primarily severe temporal phase lags during cloud transients and physically impossible nocturnal power generation. To resolve this divergence between data-driven modeling and deterministic celestial mechanics, this research introduces the Thermodynamic Liquid Manifold Network. The methodology projects 22 meteorological and geometric variables into a Koopman-linearized Riemannian manifold to systematically map complex climatic dynamics. The architecture integrates a Spectral Calibration unit and a multiplicative Thermodynamic Alpha-Gate. This system synthesizes real-time atmospheric opacity with theoretical clear-sky boundary models, structurally enforcing strict celestial geometry compliance. This completely neutralizes phantom nocturnal generation while maintaining zero-lag synchronization during rapid weather shifts. Validated against a rigorous five-year testing horizon in a severe semi-arid climate, the framework achieves an RMSE of 18.31 Wh/m2 and a Pearson correlation of 0.988. The model strictly maintains a zero-magnitude nocturnal error across all 1826 testing days and exhibits a sub-30-minute phase response during high-frequency optical transients. Comprising exactly 63,458 trainable parameters, this ultra-lightweight design establishes a robust, thermodynamically consistent standard for edge-deployable microgrid controllers.