Spatiotemporal GNNs

GNN: Graph Neural Network

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

12 papers in the last four weeks, up 300% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 91

May 22, 2026cs.CV

Distance-Aware Joint Spatio-Temporal Graph Contrastive Learning for Major Depressive Disorder Diagnosis

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common neuropsychiatric condition whose accurate diagnosis from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) remains difficult. Dynamic functional connectivity (DFC) captures time-varying interactions among brain regions and provides rich spatio-temporal information, yet current DFC-based methods face three limitations: sliding-window Pearson correlation yields noisy estimates sensitive to window length and motion artifacts; correlation-derived node features do not fully exploit frequency-domain properties of blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signals; and most spatio-temporal graph models handle spatial structure and temporal dynamics in separate stages, restricting their ability to represent coupled brain network evolution. To overcome these issues, we reformulate DFC learning as joint spatio-temporal graph representation learning under a Hawkes-process-inspired temporal dependency prior and propose HWSTCL, a two-stage framework built on a reliability-refined joint spatio-temporal graph with a kernel-weighted pretraining objective. Within each temporal window, BOLD signals are encoded as spectral node descriptors and functional edges are refined by an exponential distance-decay prior that down-weights less reliable long-range connections. The joint graph is then formed by linking each region to itself across future windows through a Hawkes-inspired exponential kernel, allowing spatial and temporal information to be propagated together during message passing. A kernel-weighted contrastive objective further promotes temporal consistency for each region across windows while reducing redundant similarity between different regions. Experiments on a benchmark rs-fMRI dataset show that HWSTCL outperforms recent baselines and yields coherent spatio-temporal representations for MDD diagnosis.

Muhammad Asif Hasan, Yanming Zhu, Xuefei Yin +1

School of Information Technology and Communication, Griffith University, Australia

Functional Connectivity Depression Detection Graph Contrastive Learning Neuroimaging Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 19, 2026cs.LG

Physics-Informed Graph Neural Network Surrogates for Turbulent Nanoparticle Dispersion in Dental Clinical Environments

Dental aerosol procedures produce sub-50 micrometre nuclei that can remain airborne for long periods in enclosed clinics, creating pathways for airborne pathogen transmission. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations with Euler-Lagrange particle tracking capture this transport accurately but require very long run times per scenario, which precludes real-time clinical decision support in 3D. We present the Eulerian-Lagrangian Graph Interaction Network (ELGIN), a physics-informed graph surrogate that jointly predicts carrier-flow dynamics on the OpenFOAM polyhedral mesh and the per-parcel motion of the polydisperse spray cloud. ELGIN couples a multi-head Graph Transformer with Jacobi-preconditioned learnable pressure projection and a turbulence-closure head to a sigmoid-gated Lagrangian Interaction Network through differentiable inverse-distance mesh-parcel coupling, and advances parcels with a symplectic Stormer-Verlet integrator. A four-stage physics-informed curriculum stabilises 260-step autoregressive rollouts without gradient explosion. A parameter sweep with foam-extend 4.1 OpenFOAM reactingParcelFoam across clinically relevant ventilation rates and handpiece spray speeds provides CFD ground truth. This article reports a single-case demonstration in which both ELGIN and a Lagrangian-only baseline (M0) are trained and evaluated on Sweep_Case_03 of a twenty-case sweep; full 16/2/2 retraining is in progress and will replace all reported metrics. On this case, ELGIN tracks the foam-extend particle cloud much more closely than M0: mean parcel displacement error falls from 19.56% to 16.20% of room width and cloud radius-of-gyration error from 9.85% to 6.58%. A 26-second rollout completes in ~64 s on a 4 GB GPU, approximately 37x faster than the foam-extend reference pipeline, toward per-appointment infection-risk screening once the multi-case checkpoint is in place.

Takshak Shende, Viktor Popov

Department of Mechanical Engineering, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom · Ascend Technologies Ltd, Southampton, United Kingdom

PDE Surrogate Modeling Physics-Informed ML Physics-Informed GNNs Spatiotemporal GNNs Computational Fluid Dynamics

May 19, 2026cs.LG

BrainDyn: A Sheaf Neural ODE for Generative Brain Dynamics

Efficient neural network models that generate brain-like dynamic activity can be a valuable resource for generating synthetic data, analyzing differences in brain transients under conditions such as testing perturbation activity or inferring the underlying generative dynamics. However, large language models (LLMs) or standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs) ignore the anatomical organization and therefore do not produce components that align with brain regions. On the other hand, graph-based networks often have very simple message passing rules that are not sufficiently expressive for brain-like dynamics. To address this, we introduce BrainDyn, a sheaf neural ordinary differential equation (neural ODE) model for continuous-time dynamics on structured brain graphs. BrainDyn encodes the recent activity history of each brain region using a long short-term memory (LSTM) model over a sliding temporal window to produce hidden states, or stalks, that are projected through learnable restriction maps into edge-specific shared spaces. Discrepancies between neighboring nodes in these shared spaces are characterized by a sheaf Laplacian that can facilitate message passing between neuronal units. The output of these messages is then fed to a neural ODE that governs the continuous-time evolution of neuronal activity. We evaluated BrainDyn on resting-state fMRI (PNC dataset), scalp EEG with focal epilepsy (TUSZ dataset), and simulated activity from the NEST spiking network simulator. BrainDyn achieves strong forecasting ability across modalities, and the resulting representations support downstream tasks including in silico perturbation prediction.

Siddharth Viswanath, Panayiotis Ketonis, Chen Liu +3

1Yale University · 2Boise State University · University of Wisconsin–Madison

Graph Neural Networks Sheaf Neural Networks Neuroimaging Neural ODEs Spatiotemporal GNNs Brain Network Analysis

May 18, 2026cs.LG

Bridge: Retrieval-Augmented Spatiotemporal Modeling for Urban Delivery Demand

Forecasting urban delivery demand becomes substantially more challenging when newly added service regions lack historical records. Existing spatiotemporal forecasters effectively model spatial dependence once sufficient node histories are available. Still, they remain parametric and therefore struggle to recover short-term operational dynamics in cold-start regions. Geospatial embeddings help identify where a region is and what function it serves, yet they do not directly reveal how a similar region behaves under a comparable temporal context. We propose Bridge, a retrieval-augmented spatiotemporal graph framework that combines an inductive contextual graph backbone with a time-aware memory of region-time windows. For each target region, Bridge retrieves future demand patterns from the memory using both regional context and recent dynamics, and refines the backbone forecast through a gated fusion mechanism. To align retrieval with forecasting utility, we further train the retriever with a future-aware objective that favors entries whose future trajectories best match the target. Experiments on four real-world delivery datasets show that Bridge consistently improves over competitive spatiotemporal baselines in both within-city cold-start and cross-city transfer with partial observations. The results show that retrieval augmentation provides a useful operational memory for cold-start urban demand forecasting when parametric graph generalization alone is insufficient.

Yihong Tang, Tong Nie, Junlin He +3

McGill University · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University · University of Toronto +1

Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 18, 2026cs.RO

On Improving Multimodal Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction with CVAE: A Study on Benchmark and Robot Data

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous systems operating in complex environments, such as modular buses and delivery robots in suburban or semi-structured areas. Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Social-STGCNN) have shown strong performance by modeling social interactions; however, producing diverse and well-calibrated future trajectories remains challenging. In this work, we build on a Social-STGCNN backbone and introduce a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE)-based probabilistic formulation to explicitly model multimodal future trajectories. We evaluate the method on the ETH and UCY pedestrian trajectory datasets as well as on a real-world pedestrian dataset collected by a mobile robot. Results show moderate gains on public benchmarks, but more consistent endpoint accuracy and improved trajectory diversity across different crowd configurations. Evaluation on robot-collected data further demonstrates the approach's effectiveness beyond curated benchmarks and supports its applicability in practical deployments.

Yuzhou Liu, Cristina Olaverri-Monreal

Dept. Intelligent Transport Systems, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Altenberger Straße 69, 4040 Linz, Austria.

Pedestrian Behavior Modeling Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Conditional Variational Autoencoder Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction+1

May 18, 2026cs.AI

POST: Prior-Observation Adversarial Learning of Spatio-Temporal Associations for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

Existing Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) frameworks increasingly rely on integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with sequence models to capture complex spatio-temporal dependencies. However, less attention is paid to the spatial over-generalization problem, where unconstrained structural modeling indiscriminately reconstructs anomalies, inevitably degrading detection recall. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel framework that unifies spatio-temporal modeling through a joint prior-observation adversarial learning paradigm. In the spatial dimension, the model alternately learns adjacency matrices as structural prior and models the association discrepancy between prior and data-driven observation in a minimax manner during training. Such adversarial optimization not only improves the model sensitivity for time-wise detection, but also enables the model to localize anomalies to specific channels. To systematically evaluate this anomaly localization capability, we further construct a synthetic benchmark equipped with precise channel-wise annotations. Extensive experiments across public datasets and our dedicated benchmark demonstrate that the proposed framework establishes a new state-of-the-art in both time-wise detection and spatial localization tasks. Our code, pre-trained models, and benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/anocodetest1/POST.

Suofei Zhang, Yaxuan Zheng, Haifeng Hu

School of Internet of Things, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China · National Engineering Research Center of Communications and Networking, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China

Anomaly Localization Time-Series Anomaly Detection Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 16, 2026cs.AI

A Global-Local Graph Attention Network for Traffic Forecasting

Traffic forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation systems. One of the critical challenges of traffic forecasting is to find spatio-temporal correlations. In recent years, graph convolutional networks and graph attention networks have replaced traditional statistical models to predict future traffic. However, it is complicated for both of them to allow vertices to have far different characters. To address this, we propose the Global-Local Graph Attention Network (GLGAT) with pairwise encoding and the event-based adjacency matrix. The GLGAT allows vertices to have a global attention matrix set for the whole graph and assigns local attention matrix sets to each vertex. Experiments on two real-world traffic datasets show that GLGAT can effectively capture spatio-temporal correlations and has competitive performance against other state-of-the-art baselines.

Tianchi Zhang

Intelligent Transportation Systems Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 10, 2026cs.LG

ChaosNetBench: Benchmarking Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks on Chaotic Lattice Dynamics

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos (

K

), coupling strength (

\varepsilon

), and system size (

N

), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.

Henok Tenaw Moges, Charalampos Skokos, Deshendran Moodley

Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research (CAIR) University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa · Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Group, Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

Forecasting Benchmarks Synthetic Benchmark Generation Chaotic Dynamical Systems Chaotic Time-Series Prediction Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 9, 2026cs.LG

PACT: Peak-Aware Cross-Attention Graph Transformers for Efficient Storm-Surge Emulation

Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.

Zesheng Liu, Doyup Kwon, Ning Lin +1

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Lehigh University · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University

PDE Surrogate Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting Time Series Transformers Spatiotemporal GNNs Weather Forecasting

May 8, 2026cs.LG

Efficient Prompt Learning for Traffic Forecasting

Accurate traffic prediction is essential for optimizing transportation systems, enhancing resource allocation, and improving overall urban administration. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance and have been widely used in various spatio-temporal prediction scenarios. However, these prediction methods often exhibit low generalization ability, struggling with distribution shifts caused by spatio-temporal dynamics. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to enhance the generalization and adaptation of spatio-temporal GNNs through efficient prompting. Specifically, we introduce a lightweight and model-agnostic prompt tuning framework for spatio-temporal GNNs, named SimpleST. It facilitates adapting pre-trained spatio-temporal GNNs to novel distributions while keeping the model parameters fixed. This prompt mechanism reduces the overhead and complexity of adaptation, enabling efficient utilization of pre-trained models for out-of-distribution generalization. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world urban spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

Qianru Zhang, Xinyi Gao, Alexander Zhou +3

School of Computing and Data Science The University of Hong Kong · School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science The University of Queensland · Department of Computing The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

OOD Generalization Prompt Tuning Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 7, 2026cs.LG

Learning beyond Site Bias for OOD Generalization in Brain Networks

Graph-based learning from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has shown strong potential for brain network analysis. However, existing methods often degrade under cross-site out-of-distribution (OOD) settings, as site-dependent confounder effects can obscure disease-related connectivity patterns and static functional connectivity (FC) does not explicitly capture informative within-scan variations. In this paper, we propose Cross-site OOD Robust brain nEtwork (CORE), a unified framework for brain network learning across unseen sites. First, CORE estimates site-specific confounder effects and aggregates the resulting deconfounders by cross-source reliability for unseen-site correction, while extracting a population scaffold of reproducible label-associated connections from site-wise residualized FC. It then summarizes temporal variations on scaffold edges into compact descriptors for line-graph modeling. Finally, prior-guided subject-adaptive gating modulates message passing, balancing population priors with individual variability. Extensive leave-one-site-out experiments on ABIDE, REST-meta-MDD, SRPBS, and ABCD demonstrate that CORE consistently outperforms competitive baselines, with up to a 10.3% relative improvement in accuracy. These gains also persist across different brain parcellation schemes on ABIDE.

Yingxu Wang, Kunyu Zhang, Yanwu Yang +5

Zhengzhou University · City University of Hong Kong

Functional Connectivity Domain Generalization OOD Generalization Neuroimaging Spatiotemporal GNNs Brain Network Analysis

May 5, 2026cs.AI

Actionable Real-Time Modeling of Surgical Team Dynamics via Time-Expanded Interaction Graphs

Surgical team performance arises from complex interactions between technical execution and non-technical skills, including communication and coordination dynamics. However, current surgical AI systems predominantly model visual workflow signals, lacking structured representations of intraoperative team interactions over time. We propose a real-time actionable approach for modeling surgical team dynamics using time-expanded interaction graphs, where team members are modeled as time-indexed nodes and communication exchanges define directed edges. This spatio-temporal expansion enables dynamic interaction modeling, while allowing efficient inference with a static graph neural network. The model predicts procedural efficiency as the deviation from the expected duration and supports real-time deployment. Beyond prediction, we perform a counterfactual analysis to identify minimal changes in communication structure and interpretable behavioral variables associated with improved predicted outcomes. Experiments on recorded surgical procedures show that structured modeling of team interactions improves early identification of prolonged interventions and provides coherent, actionable explanations. This work advances surgical AI toward real-time, team-aware, and actionable decision support in the operating room.

Vincenzo Marco De Luca, Antonio Longa, Giovanna Varni +1

a University of Trento · b UiT the Arctic University of Norway

Clinical Outcome Prediction Dynamic Graph Learning Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 5, 2026cs.LG

GraphSVR: A Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression Framework for Robust Spatiotemporal Air Pollution Forecasting

Urban air quality forecasting is challenging because pollutant concentrations are nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent, and often affected by anomalous observations caused by traffic congestion, industrial emissions, and seasonal meteorological variability. This study proposes a Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression (GraphSVR) framework for robust spatiotemporal forecasting of urban air pollution. The model combines graph convolutional learning to capture inter-station spatial dependence with support vector regression to model nonlinear temporal dynamics while reducing sensitivity to outlier observations. The proposed framework is evaluated using air quality records from 37 monitoring stations in Delhi and 18 stations in Mumbai, representing inland and coastal metropolitan environments in India. Forecasting performance is assessed across multiple horizons and compared with established temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks. The results show that GraphSVR consistently improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone pollution episodes. Statistical test further confirms the reliability of the proposed approach across the datasets. Furthermore, the conformal prediction approach is integrated with GraphSVR to generate calibrated prediction intervals, enhancing its practical value for uncertainty-aware air quality monitoring and public health decision-making.

Nourin Jahan, Muhammed Navas T, Tanujit Chakraborty +1

Department of Mathematics, School of Advanced Sciences, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India · SAFIR, Sorbonne University, Abu Dhabi, UAE · SCAI - Sorbonne Cluster for Artificial Intelligence, Paris, France +1

Air Quality Prediction Support Vector Machines Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 5, 2026cs.LG

Bi-Level Chaotic Fusion Based Graph Convolutional Network for Stock Market Prediction Interval

Financial market forecasting is inherently uncertain, yet most deep learning approaches rely on point predictions that provide only single-value estimates without quantifying uncertainty. Such predictions are insufficient for risk-aware decision-making, as they fail to capture the range of possible outcomes and the associated confidence of forecasts.The problem can be solved using prediction intervals, which allow obtaining an upper and lower bound for the prediction, thus enabling uncertainty representation in the model. Yet, the current methods tend to disregard relationships between assets or cannot simultaneously ensure good calibration and sharpness of the resulting intervals in dynamically changing market regimes. In our work, we propose a spatio-temporal graph-based approach with a bi-level chaotic fusion technique to solve this problem. Our model uses separate nonlinear transformation functions to estimate the interval center and width. Additionally, a volatility-aware gating mechanism is used to make predictions dependent on the regime in which the market operates. Temporal dependencies are considered by embedding graph structures and sequentially modeling them. Training is conducted according to a Lower-Upper Bound Estimation (LUBE) objective. Our experimental results show significant improvements compared to existing baselines (LSTM, GRU, GCN, HGNN) when applied to data from 2016 to 2026 with 43 leading companies in eight sectors of the NSE. It provides the lowest Winkler score (0.0778), tightest prediction intervals (PIAW = 0.1407), and highest coverage (PICP = 96.6%), with all differences statistically significant (p < 0.001) according to the Diebold-Mariano test.

Eshwar Sai Kandimalla, Sravan Chowdary Kankanala, Sumana Bhimineni +2

Department of Computer Science & Engineering, SRM University AP, India

Financial Forecasting Financial Time Series Finance Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs Regression Prediction Intervals

Apr 27, 2026cs.LG

Fraud Detection in Cryptocurrency Markets with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks

Technological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes.

Lidia Losavio, Luca Persia, Madan Sathe +1

Faculty of Informatics, Universit`a della Svizzera italiana, Lugano, Switzerland · School of Management and Law, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Zurich, Switzerland · Forensics and Financial Crime, Deloitte AG, Switzerland

Financial Fraud Detection Spatiotemporal GNNs Anomaly Detection

Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

StormNet: Improving storm surge predictions with a GNN-based spatio-temporal offset forecasting model

Storm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events.

Noujoud Nader, Stefanos Giaremis, Clint Dawson +3

Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, 70803, LA, US. · Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece. · Oden Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, 78712, TX, US.

Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

Robustness of Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks for Fault Location in Partially Observable Distribution Grids

Fault location in distribution grids is critical for reliability and minimizing outage durations. Yet, it remains challenging due to partial observability, given sparse measurement infrastructure. Recent works show promising results by combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for spatio-temporal learning. Still, many modern GNN architectures remain untested for this grid application, while existing GNN solutions have not explored GNN topology definitions beyond simply adopting the full grid topology to construct the GNN graph. We address these gaps by (i) systematically comparing a newly proposed graph-forming strategy (measured-only) to the traditional full-topology approach, and (ii) introducing STGNN (Spatio-temporal GNN) models based on GraphSAGE and an improved Graph Attention (GATv2), for distribution grid fault location; (iii) benchmarking them against state-of-the-art STGNN and RNN baselines on the IEEE 123-bus feeder. In our experiments, all evaluated STGNN variants achieve high performance and consistently outperform a pure RNN baseline, with improvements up to 11 percentage points F1. Among STGNN models, the newly explored RGATv2 and RGSAGE achieve only marginally higher F1 scores. Still, STGNNs demonstrate superior stability, with tight confidence intervals (within +/- 1.4%) compared to the RNN baseline (up to +/- 7.5%) across different experiment runs. Finally, our proposed reduced GNN topology (measured-only) shows clear benefits in both (i) model training time (6-fold reduction) and (ii) model performance (up to 11 points F1). This suggests that measured-only graphs offer a more practical, efficient, and robust framework for partially observable distribution grids.

Burak Karabulut, Carlo Manna, Chris Develder

Ghent University – imec · VITO

Graph Attention Networks Graph Neural Networks Anomaly Localization Spatiotemporal GNNs Power Systems

Apr 20, 2026cs.LG

Forecasting Ionospheric Irregularities on GNSS Lines of Sight Using Dynamic Graphs with Ephemeris Conditioning

Most data-driven ionospheric forecasting models operate on gridded products, which do not preserve the time-varying sampling structure of satellite-based sensing. We instead model the ionosphere as a dynamic graph over ionospheric pierce points (IPPs), with connectivity that evolves as satellite positions change. Because satellite trajectories are predictable, the graph topology over the forecast horizon can be constructed in advance. We exploit this property to condition forecasts on the future graph structure, which we term ephemeris conditioning. This enables prediction on lines of sight that appear only in the forecast horizon. We evaluate our framework on multi-GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data from a co-located receiver pair in Singapore spanning January 2023 through April 2025. The task is to forecast Rate of TEC Index (ROTI)-defined irregularities at 5-minute cadence up to 2 hours ahead as binary probabilistic classification per node. The resulting model, IonoDGNN, achieves a Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.49 and a precision-recall area under the curve (PR-AUC) of 0.75, improving over persistence by 35% in BSS and 52% in PR-AUC, with larger gains at longer lead times. Ablations confirm that graph structure and ephemeris conditioning each contribute meaningfully, with conditioning proving essential for satellites that rise during the forecast horizon (receiver operating characteristic AUC: 0.95 vs.\ 0.52 without). Under simulated coverage dropout, the model retains predictive skill on affected nodes through spatial message passing from observed neighbors. These results suggest that dynamic graph forecasting on evolving lines of sight is a viable alternative to grid-based representations for ionospheric irregularity forecasting. The model and evaluation code will be released upon publication.

Mert Can Turkmen, Eng Leong Tan, Yee Hui Lee

Nanyang Technological University Singapore

Probabilistic Forecasting Dynamic Graph Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 20, 2026cs.CV

Dual-stream Spatio-Temporal GCN-Transformer Network for 3D Human Pose Estimation

3D human pose estimation is a classic and important research direction in the field of computer vision. In recent years, Transformer-based methods have made significant progress in lifting 2D to 3D human pose estimation. However, these methods primarily focus on modeling global temporal and spatial relationships, neglecting local skeletal relationships and the information interaction between different channels. Therefore, we have proposed a novel method,the Dual-stream Spatio-temporal GCN-Transformer Network (MixTGFormer). This method models the spatial and temporal relationships of human skeletons simultaneously through two parallel channels, achieving effective fusion of global and local features. The core of MixTGFormer is composed of stacked Mixformers. Specifically, the Mixformer includes the Mixformer Block and the Squeeze-and-Excitation Layer ( SE Layer). It first extracts and fuses various information of human skeletons through two parallel Mixformer Blocks with different modes. Then, it further supplements the fused information through the SE Layer. The Mixformer Block integrates Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) into the Transformer, enhancing both local and global information utilization. Additionally, we further implement its temporal and spatial forms to extract both spatial and temporal relationships. We extensively evaluated our model on two benchmark datasets (Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP). The experimental results showed that, compared to other methods, our MixTGFormer achieved state-of-the-art results, with P1 errors of 37.6mm and 15.7mm on these datasets, respectively.

Jiawen Duan, Jian Xiang, Zhiqiang Li +2

School of Information and Electronic Engineering, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Liuxia, Hangzhou 310023, China

3D ViTs 3D Reconstruction 3D Human Pose Estimation Graph Transformer Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 18, 2026cs.AI

GAMMA-Net: Adaptive Long-Horizon Traffic Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Model based on Interleaved Graph Attention and Multi-Axis Mamba

Accurate traffic forecasting is crucial for intelligent transportation systems, supporting effective traffic management, congestion reduction, and informed urban planning. However, traditional models often fail to adequately capture the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies present in traffic data. To overcome these limitations, we introduce GAMMA-Net, a novel approach that integrates Graph Attention Networks (GAT) with multi-axis Selective State Space Models (Mamba). The GAT component uses a self-attention mechanism to dynamically adjust the influence of nodes within the traffic network, enabling adaptive spatial dependency modeling based on real-time conditions. Simultaneously, the Mamba module efficiently models long-term temporal and spatial dynamics without the heavy computational cost of conventional recurrent architectures. Extensive experiments on several benchmark traffic datasets, including METR-LA, PEMS-BAY, PEMS03, PEMS04, PEMS07, and PEMS08, show that GAMMA-Net consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art models across different prediction horizons, achieving up to a 16.25% reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to baseline models. Ablation studies highlight the critical contributions of both the spatial and temporal components, emphasizing their complementary role in improving prediction accuracy. In conclusion, the GAMMA-Net model sets a new standard in traffic forecasting, offering a powerful tool for next-generation traffic management and urban planning. The code for this study is available at https://github.com/hdy6438/GAMMA-Net

Dongyi He, Yuanquan Gao, Bin Jiang +1

School of Artificial Intelligence, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing, 400054, China

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Intelligent Transportation Systems Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

Reversible Residual Normalization Alleviates Spatio-Temporal Distribution Shift

Distribution shift severely degrades the performance of deep forecasting models. While this issue is well-studied for individual time series, it remains a significant challenge in the spatio-temporal domain. Effective solutions like instance normalization and its variants can mitigate temporal shifts by standardizing statistics. However, distribution shift on a graph is far more complex, involving not only the drift of individual node series but also heterogeneity across the spatial network where different nodes exhibit distinct statistical properties. To tackle this problem, we propose Reversible Residual Normalization (RRN), a novel framework that performs spatially-aware invertible transformations to address distribution shift in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Our approach integrates graph convolutional operations within invertible residual blocks, enabling adaptive normalization that respects the underlying graph structure while maintaining reversibility. By combining Center Normalization with spectral-constrained graph neural networks, our method captures and normalizes complex Spatio-Temporal relationships in a data-driven manner. The bidirectional nature of our framework allows models to learn in a normalized latent space and recover original distributional properties through inverse transformation, offering a robust and model-agnostic solution for forecasting on dynamic spatio-temporal systems.

Zhaobo Hu, Vincent Gauthier, Mehdi Naima

SAMOVAR, Télécom SudParis · Institut Polytechnique de Paris · CNRS – LIP6 +1

Invertible Neural Networks Distribution Shift Robustness Spatiotemporal Forecasting Temporal Distribution Shift Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

Modern Structure-Aware Simplicial Spatiotemporal Neural Network

Spatiotemporal modeling has evolved beyond simple time series analysis to become fundamental in structural time series analysis. While current research extensively employs graph neural networks (GNNs) for spatial feature extraction with notable success, these networks are limited to capturing only pairwise relationships, despite real-world networks containing richer topological relationships. Additionally, GNN-based models face computational challenges that scale with graph complexity, limiting their applicability to large networks. To address these limitations, we present Modern Structure-Aware Simplicial SpatioTemporal neural network (ModernSASST), the first approach to leverage simplicial complex structures for spatiotemporal modeling. Our method employs spatiotemporal random walks on high-dimensional simplicial complexes and integrates parallelizable Temporal Convolutional Networks to capture high-order topological structures while maintaining computational efficiency. Our source code is publicly available on GitHub\footnote{Code is available at: https://github.com/ComplexNetTSP/ST_RUM.

Zhaobo Hu, Vincent Gauthier, Mehdi Naima

SAMOVAR, T´el´ecom SudParis · Institut Polytechnique de Paris · CNRS – LIP6

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 16, 2026cs.LG

G-PARC: Graph-Physics Aware Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks for Spatiotemporal Dynamics on Unstructured Meshes

Physics-aware recurrent convolutional networks (PARC) have demonstrated strong performance in predicting nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics by embedding differential operators directly into the computational graph of a neural network. However, pixel-based convolutions are restricted to static, uniform Cartesian grids, making them ill-suited to following evolving localized structures in an efficient manner. Graph neural networks (GNNs) naturally handle irregular spatial discretizations, but existing graph-based physics-aware deep learning (PADL) methods have difficulty handling extreme nonlinear regimes. To address these limitations, we propose Graph PARC (G-PARC), which uses moving least squares (MLS) kernels to approximate spatial derivatives on unstructured graphs, and embeds the derivatives of governing partial differential equations into the network's computational graph. G-PARC achieves better accuracy with 2-3x fewer parameters than MeshGraphNet, MeshGraphKAN, and GraphSAGE, replacing the traditional encoder-processor-decoder framework with analytically computed differential operators. We demonstrate that G-PARC (1) generalizes across nonuniform spatial and temporal discretizations; (2) handles moving meshes required for structural deformation; and (3) outperforms existing graph-based PADL methods on nonlinear benchmarks including fluvial hydrology, planar shock waves, and elastoplastic dynamics. By embedding explicit physical operators within the flexibility of GNNs, G-PARC enables accurate modeling of extreme nonlinear phenomena on complex computational domains, moving PADLbeyond idealized Cartesian grids.

Jack T. Beerman, Tyler J. Abele, Mehdi Taghizadeh +6

School of Data Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, United States · Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, United States · Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, United States +1

Neural PDE Solvers PDE Surrogate Modeling Physics-Informed ML Physics-Informed GNNs Spatiotemporal GNNs

Mar 16, 2026cs.CV

KGS-GCN: Kinematics-Driven Gaussian Splatting and Probabilistic Topology for Skeleton-Based Action Recognition

Skeleton-based action recognition is widely applied in sensor-based systems, including human-computer interaction and intelligent surveillance. However, typical sensors produce sparse and discrete joint coordinates, often leading to the loss of fine-grained spatiotemporal information during dynamic movements. Furthermore, predefined physical topologies restrict modeling potential long-range dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose KGS-GCN, which integrates kinematics-driven Gaussian splatting and probabilistic topology within a graph convolutional network. A Gaussian splatting module constructs anisotropic covariance matrices by extracting instantaneous joint velocity vectors, rendering sparse skeleton sequences into multi-view continuous heatmaps rich in spatiotemporal semantics. Additionally, a probabilistic topology construction strategy transcends physical connectivity limitations by utilizing the Bhattacharyya distance to quantify statistical correlations between joint Gaussian distributions, generating an adaptive prior adjacency matrix. Finally, the lightweight multi-view rendering branch and topological GCN backbone are unified through a visual context gating mechanism, enabling seamless fusion of continuous dynamic cues with structural priors while maintaining high computational efficiency, requiring only 1.4M parameters and 1.3 GFLOPs. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that KGS-GCN significantly enhances the modeling of complex spatiotemporal dynamics and achieves competitive performance at low computational cost, establishing an efficient paradigm for improving the perceptual robustness of low-fidelity sensor data.

Yuhan Chen, Yicui Shi, Guofa Li +4

Skeleton-Based Action Recognition Human Activity Recognition Gaussian Splatting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Mar 13, 2026cs.LG

Competition-Aware CPC Forecasting with Near-Market Coverage

Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is an auction-generated outcome shaped by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser's history. From 1.66 billion Google Ads log records for a concentrated car-rental market (2021-2023), we construct a weekly panel of 1,811 keyword series over 127 weeks (218,924 keyword-week observations) and build competition-aware proxies from keyword text, CPC trajectories, and geographic market structure. The design combines (i) semantic neighborhoods and a semantic keyword graph from pretrained transformer-based keyword representations, (ii) behavioral neighborhoods from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) alignment of CPC trajectories, and (iii) geographic-intent covariates capturing localized demand and marketplace heterogeneity. We evaluate these signals both as exogenous covariates and as relational priors in spatiotemporal graph forecasters, benchmarking them against statistical, neural, and time-series foundation-model baselines. The results reveal a clear horizon crossover. At one week, graph-based models achieve the lowest error, reducing sMAPE by 15.1% relative to the strongest classical/ML baseline; at the six- and twelve-week horizons, covariate-augmented foundation models dominate, reducing sMAPE by 22.5% and 27.6%, respectively. The gains concentrate in the high-CPC, high-volatility keywords where forecasting errors are most costly. A falsification battery supports the competition interpretation at the planning horizon: the semantic competition graph outperforms a confounder-matched non-competitive graph by 4.05 sMAPE points, and matched-neighbour and time-shuffled controls show the six-week gains are competition-specific rather than generic smoothing. Together, the findings establish a horizon-dependent competition-aware forecasting design for auction-driven advertising markets under partial observability.

Sebastian Frey, Edoardo Beccari, Maximilian Kranz +4

*Nova School of Business and Economics, Portugal · †University of Hamburg, Germany

Competitive Analysis Online Advertising Time Series Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models Spatiotemporal GNNs

Mar 12, 2026cs.LG

Deep Learning Network-Temporal Models For Traffic Prediction

Accurate prediction of multivariate time series is essential for emerging network intelligent control, observability, and management functions. Existing statistical-based and shallow machine learning models have shown limited prediction capabilities on multivariate time series. They prioritize improvements in average prediction accuracy, while overlooking heterogeneous dependency structures and performance variability across individual time series. Recent advances in large language models have introduced new directions for multivariate time series forecasting; however, their application in conjunction with explicit structural dependency modeling remains relatively underexplored, especially in networked environments. In this paper, we present a topology-aware learning framework for large-scale network traffic prediction that explicitly models both temporal dynamics and structural dependencies in multivariate network time series. We first investigate a graph attention model designed to capture topology-induced correlations among network traffic time series. We then evaluate a fine-tuned large language model-based representations for improved generalization across heterogeneous traffic patterns. To further address the diversity of cross-correlations in high-dimensional traffic data, we introduce a clustering-based preprocessing stage that groups traffic flows with similar dependency characteristics prior to model training, reducing input complexity and improving learning stability. Experiments on real backbone traffic data show consistent improvements over statistical and recurrent neural network baselines. In addition to average accuracy, we evaluate performance across individual time series and observe reduced variability in prediction quality.

Yufeng Xin, Ethan Fan

RENCI, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Chapel Hill, NC, USA

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Jan 30, 2026cs.LG

Securing Time Integrity in Energy IoT Against Clock Drift and Y2K38 Failures

Time integrity across distributed Internet of Things (IoT) devices is fundamental to reliable sensing, control, and security in energy cyber-physical systems. However, operational energy IoT systems remain vulnerable to clock-drift escalation, time-synchronization manipulation, and catastrophic timestamp discontinuities, e.g., the Year 2038 (Y2K38) Unix epoch overflow. These failures violate timestamp monotonicity, distort temporal ordering, and introduce structured inconsistencies in system observations. Conventional anomaly detection models, which typically assume reliable and uniformly ordered timestamps, are therefore ill-equipped to capture timing-layer failures. This paper introduces STGAT (Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Network), a clock-dynamics-aware anomaly detection solution that jointly models temporal distortion and inter-device consistency in energy IoT systems. STGAT integrates drift-aware temporal embeddings and temporal self-attention to capture non-uniform and corrupted time evolution within individual device streams, while graph attention models the spatial propagation of timing inconsistencies across interconnected nodes. A Jacobian-regularized latent representation further promotes geometric separation between nominal clock evolution and anomalous temporal deformation caused by drift escalation, synchronization offsets, jitter accumulation, and epoch-overflow events. Experimental evaluation on energy IoT telemetry augmented with controlled timing-layer perturbations shows that STGAT achieves 95.7% accuracy, 94.0% precision, 92.0% recall, 93.0% F1-score, and 0.97 AUC under the primary test setting. STGAT also reduces detection delay to 2.3 time steps, corresponding to a 26% improvement over the closest baseline, while maintaining stable performance under overflow-induced discontinuities, stealthy drift escalation, and temporally induced physical inconsistencies.

Saeid Jamshidi, Foutse Khomh, Carol Fung +2

SWAT Laboratory, Polytechnique Montréal, Québec, Canada · CIISE, Concordia University, Montréal, QC, Canada · Department of Computer Engineering and Software Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Québec, Canada +1

Time-Series Anomaly Detection Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 10, 2025cs.CV

Efficient Traffic State Prediction With Dynamic Joint Spatio-Temporal Relation Inference

Traffic prediction is difficult due to the complex interplay of temporal evolution, spatial interactions, and delayed spatio-temporal propagation over road networks. Existing methods either model spatial and temporal dependencies separately or employ unified spatio-temporal structures, but they often insufficiently characterize how neighboring sensors at historical timestamps influence a target node, while complex joint models may incur high computation. This paper proposes STEI-PCN, an efficient pure convolutional network based on spatio-temporal encoding and relation inference. It first builds a local causal joint spatio-temporal graph to restrict candidate interactions, then uses absolute position and relative distance encodings to infer dynamic edge weights. A single-layer graph convolution with a position-aware gated activation unit captures local joint dependencies, and temporal dilated causal convolutions complement long-range temporal patterns. A multi-view prediction module fuses raw, local propagation, and long-range temporal representations for direct multi-step forecasting. Experiments on PeMS03, PeMS04, PeMS07, PeMS08, and PeMS-Bay under multiple horizons show that STEI-PCN achieves competitive accuracy with moderate parameters and low training and inference costs. Ablation and fluctuation analyses further verify the contributions of the main components and empirically analyze the effects of the training-stage constraints under sharp speed changes. Our code is available at a GitHub link https://github.com/Jessez2/STEI-PCN.

Zhifeng Hao, Kai Hu, Juncai Zhang +2

School of Cyberspace Security, Hainan University, Haikou, China

Temporal Convolutional Networks Dynamic Graph Learning Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Oct 14, 2024cs.LG

Information propagation dynamics in Deep Graph Networks

Graphs are a highly expressive abstraction for modeling entities and their relations, such as molecular structures, social networks, and traffic networks. Deep Graph Networks (DGNs) have emerged as a family of deep learning models that can effectively process and learn such structured information. However, learning effective information propagation patterns within DGNs remains a critical challenge that heavily influences the model capabilities, both in the static domain and in the temporal domain (where features and/or topology evolve). Given this challenge, this thesis investigates the dynamics of information propagation within DGNs for static and dynamic graphs, focusing on their design as dynamical systems. Throughout this work, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed architectures in propagating and preserving long-term dependencies between nodes, and in learning complex spatio-temporal patterns from irregular and sparsely sampled dynamic graphs. In summary, this thesis provides a comprehensive exploration of the intersection between graphs, deep learning, and dynamical systems, offering insights and advancements for the field of graph representation learning and paving the way for more effective and versatile graph-based learning models.

Alessio Gravina

University of Pisa Department of Computer Science

Graph Neural Networks Graph Representation Learning Dynamic Graph Learning Spatiotemporal GNNs

Mar 22, 2024cs.CV

GCN-DevLSTM: Path Development for Skeleton-Based Action Recognition

Skeleton-based action recognition (SAR) in videos is an important but challenging task in computer vision. The recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) models for SAR are primarily based on graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs), which are powerful in extracting the spatial information from skeleton data. However, their ability to capture temporal dynamics remains limited. To address this, we propose the G-Dev layer, which leverages path development-a principled and parsimonious representation for sequential data based on Lie group structures-to enhance temporal modeling. By integrating the G-Dev layer, the proposed DevLSTM module summarizes local temporal dynamics, reducing the time dimension while retaining high-frequency information. It can be conveniently applied to any temporal graph data, complementing existing advanced GCN-based models. Our empirical studies on the NTU-60, NTU-120 and Chalearn2013 datasets demonstrate that our proposed GCN-DevLSTM network consistently improves the strong GCN baseline models and achieves competitive performance. The code repository is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepIntoStreams/GCN-DevLSTM.

Lei Jiang, Weixin Yang, Xin Zhang +1

University College London · University of Oxford · South China University of Technology

Skeleton-Based Action Recognition Human Activity Recognition Spatiotemporal GNNs