Click-Through Rate Prediction

On a delivery platform, personalized store ranking greatly influences what users find and order. Unlike digital-only domains, candidate stores are local and bound by real-time availability and delivery operations. One central modeling tension is between surfacing new stores for trial and preserving ranking quality for sessions with reorder intent. We present Universal Venue Ranker (UVR), a production system deployed at Wolt that pairs a bidirectional transformer encoder for sequential user modeling with a GBDT ranker integrating contextual, user, and store features. Trained across all stores and domains of a country while enforcing local delivery constraints at inference, UVR replaces four previously separate ranking models (three for restaurants, one for retail) with a single unified system. Label smoothing and trial-biased sample weighting steer the model toward new stores, lifting offline trial MRR by +12% to +30% over production while regressing reorder MRR in five of six countries. These regressions leave Global CVR, our core online metric, which blends trial and reorder sessions, statistically unchanged. We validate UVR in three consecutive A/B tests, the first two across Wolt's largest operating markets and the third spanning all operating countries and both domains. UVR V1 delivers +5.5% Merchant Trial Rate and +0.16% Global CVR over the previous production ranker; V2 adds a further +0.45% Merchant Trial Rate on top; and V3, our cross-domain unification of the restaurant and retail rankers, adds a further +1.31% Retail Merchant Trial Rate, together accounting for substantial incremental gross order value and a materially simplified serving stack.

In the one-time selling B2B context, the buying cycle may last months or even years. During the long process, targeting customers that have a high potential to make purchases and recommending personalized campaigns accordingly are important for effective marketing. For this goal, we study the following problems, B2B customer data aggregation, customer feature generation, and prediction of whether a B2B customer would show interest in making a purchase (i.e., prediction of conversion into sales funnel). We propose an algorithm to aggregate individual contacts to the B2B customer level based on multiple keys. For non-standardized keys such as company names, we propose a novel architecture to cluster them in a domain encompassing irregularities such as spelling mistakes and spelling variants. We then define and generate a set of features and apply the CatBoost model for customer conversion prediction. Our framework achieves 91% prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction results and analysis of the model, we then discuss personalized campaign recommendations to foster conversion.

Click-through rate (CTR) models vary in feature-interaction design, yet their top networks usually remain a single multilayer perceptron shared by all examples. Heterogeneous user, item, and context subgroups therefore update the same parameters; weakly aligned learning signals make the aggregate gradient a compromise among competing directions. We study the competition on Avazu with 4 models and 4 semantic fields. Across all architectures, semantic subgroups show lower Top-NN gradient cosine similarity than random groups matched by sample size and label ratio, with reductions of 0.23-0.37. This competition motivates input-conditioned experts, but directly replacing an established Dense mapping changes its initial function, sharing pattern, and capacity, obscuring the source of gains. We introduce PRIME (Plug-in Residual Input-conditioned Mixture of Experts), a Dense-anchored mixture of low-rank residual experts. PRIME anchors the original prediction and uses zero-residual initialization to match the Dense baseline exactly at training onset. Input-dependent routing weights low-rank experts for example-specific logit corrections; multi-bag aggregation and EMA load biases stabilize conditional estimation. We evaluate PRIME on held-out Avazu and Criteo test sets across 13 CTR architectures and five paired seeds. Median paired AUC gains are +0.0022 and +0.0066, with LogLoss reductions of 0.0011 and 0.0081, respectively. On FiBiNET and DCNv2, PRIME outperforms APG in all ten seed-level AUC comparisons while using fewer parameters and lower inference latency on both backbones. These results show that function-preserving conditional residuals add input-dependent capacity while preserving the Dense path and its optimization stability. Code is available at https://github.com/YH-learning/PRIME.

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a key metric in various scenarios including e-commerce and advertising, reflecting the efficiency and user experience in the second stage of the conversion process. Estimating the causal effect on CVR is therefore of great practical importance. However, directly applying existing causal inference methods to clicked samples introduces sample selection bias and increased variance due to the exclusion of non-click data. Recent studies on CVR prediction introduce "ideal loss", which optimizes model parameters using an unbiased estimate of the loss over the full sample. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that unbiasedness of the loss implies unbiasedness of the final estimator. We revisit this challenge from the perspective of semiparametric theory. Specifically, we develop a new doubly robust causal effect estimator for chain-structured outcomes such as CVR, and derive its theoretical properties in detail. It achieves a faster convergence rate compared to nuisance parameters estimation and is therefore more robust when using flexible nonparametric estimators, including neural networks. Based on these theoretical findings, we further design a framework based on targeted regularization to improve numerical stability and practical applicability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method. In addition, we find that naively combining loss debiasing with standard causal estimators underperforms our method, highlighting the necessity of developing the new estimator tailored to this CVR-style objective with solid theoretical guarantees.

Coupon campaigns seek to lift both conversion and revenue, but gross merchandise value (GMV) follows a deterministic funnel from conversion to conditional order value and is zero-inflated and heavy-tailed. We propose FunnelCausalNet, an uplift estimator coupling a binary conversion head with a nonnegative conditional-value head through $μ_{\mathrm{gmv}}=μ_{\mathrm{conv}}μ_{\mathrm{val}}$. Under explicit RCT, support, rate-gap, and cross-head covariance-control assumptions, an idealized leading-order MSE comparison identifies a regime in which funnel composition can reduce pointwise variance; this is a heuristic, not a guarantee for the shared-representation neural model. The estimator is paired with marginal split-conformal CATE summaries, combined through a Bonferroni union as audit bands, and a Lagrangian budgeted allocator using RCT-anchored estimates for subsidy-aware ROI accounting. On semi-synthetic multi-tier Criteo-MT7, FunnelCausalNet's mean AUUC_GMV is within one seed standard deviation of the leading feature-interaction baseline among eleven baselines, while a controlled ablation reduces GMV effect error versus direct GMV regression by 18--48% across tested zero-inflation regimes. On de-identified industrial Hotel-Coupon RCT logs with about 4.9 million hold-out exposure records per seed, expected-outcome evaluation sweeps full LP frontiers; FunnelCausalNet has the best seed-averaged mean DeltaROI at all seven correlated anchors from 10% to 60%, which we treat as descriptive frontier consistency rather than independent significance. On sparse binary-spend public benchmarks, revenue-focused rankers can dominate uplift-curve proxies, defining an explicit regime boundary.

Not all clicks are equal. Industrial ads ranking decouples conversion probability into click-through rate (CTR) and post-click conversion rate (CVR), yet treats every click as the same event. In reality, users provide a free, self-generated signal of intent through their physical UI interactions. Different click types on the same ad exhibit a 4-fold difference in actual conversion rates. By conflating these signals, the standard CVR model under-predicts high-intent clicks and over-predicts low-intent ones, which is a bias masked by near-perfect aggregate calibration. We propose MARCO (Multi-intent Ads Ranking Composition Optimization), a framework that resolves this bias by decomposing each click by intent. Using the logged click type as a free behavioral label, MARCO trains per-intent CVR heads on homogeneous populations, and at serving time composes their per-intent CVR estimates under a predicted distribution over intents. Theoretically, we prove that decomposition never raises population risk, give the exact headroom under squared loss and non-negativity under the deployed loss, and show through a routing-efficiency dial how much of it reaches serving. Because the population-optimal score is unchanged, any gain is a finite-capacity estimation and calibration effect that we validated both offline and online. For deployment at scale, we further cast multi-impression, multi-click attribution as credit assignment with a bias-variance tradeoff analogous to RL return estimation, showing last-impression, first-click attribution is the low-bias, low-variance, deterministic choice under production constraints, and derive three consistency conditions enforced end-to-end at scale. Deployed at binary intent granularity, MARCO corrects per-intent calibration to approximately 100%, lifts conversions per click by +2.80%, and drives +0.98% cumulative improvement in topline metrics.

Multimodal information can improve the accuracy of click-through rate (CTR) prediction and effectively alleviate item cold-start and long-tail problems. Recent studies commonly discretize pretrained multimodal embeddings into semantic identifiers (SIDs), allowing the model to learn task-specific semantic representations for recommendation. However, existing methods still provide limited gains due to two major limitations. First, codebook assignment fails to preserve semantic relevance and discards fine-grained continuous signals in the original embedding space. Second, the residual code paths are highly dependent on prefix codes, which limits the effective representational scalability of hierarchical identifiers. To address these issues, we propose PaletteID (PID), a prototype-based semantic identifier. Inspired by palette-based color composition, PID uses a compact set of representative prototype items as semantic anchors to bridge pretrained multimodal content space and recommendation models. Specifically, we first construct a prototype palette with Semantic Quality-Aware Determinantal Point Process (SQ-DPP), which jointly considers local content density and global semantic diversity. Then, for each target item, PID retrieves a sequence of semantically related prototypes and aggregates them into an informative PID representation, enabling rich and complementary semantic modeling. Extensive experiments on two public datasets demonstrate that PID consistently improves CTR prediction and yields larger gains for long-tail items. PID also produces more robust identifier assignments and provides more interpretable token semantics than existing residual SID methods.

User foundation models have demonstrated strong results in e-commerce and social recommendation, but most industrial deployments assume environments where user identity is stable and persistent. Open-web real-time bidding (RTB) operates on a structurally different data distribution: user identity is fragmented and non-persistent across browsing sessions, and the availability of browsing history depends on user privacy choices. Consequently, a significant portion of traffic carries no historical data, and available records often consist of relatively short, disjointed sessions. As a result, historical signals in this domain are typically represented as aggregated counters and recency buckets, leaving the sequential structure unexploited. To address this limitation, we present a user foundation model that applies self-supervised learning on user browsing histories and show that the learned representation improves multiple downstream production tasks, demonstrating the viability of this approach on the open web. We pre-train a Transformer encoder with masked language modeling and a sequence-level contrastive objective, then fine-tune it on the click prediction task. We optimize the encoder's pre-training pipeline with an LLM-in-the-loop search over a curated catalog of reviewable, code-level edits (lifters), instantiating the LLM-as-optimizer paradigm in an industrial setting. The same encoder representation yields +1.197% RIG on the production bid win-rate model and +1.354% RIG on the production CTR ranker; a 7-day live A/B test confirms +2.13% CTR, -1.13% eCPC (80% CI excluding zero on both metrics).

Long-horizon conversion prediction under delayed feedback creates a two-clock, two-window learning problem in online advertising. A short base observation window releases recent clicks on the click clock before their outcomes mature, whereas conversions continue to arrive on the conversion clock throughout a longer target conversion window. The click clock provides timely but partially observed status supervision. The conversion clock reveals long-tail delays, but the delay composition within an arrival-time slice is weighted by historical click cohorts with different traffic volumes and target-window conversion rates. We present TWICE, a framework that factorizes long-horizon post-click conversion rate (CVR) into a target-window conversion probability and a grouped elapsed-delay cumulative distribution function (CDF). The two clocks provide complementary supervision. Click-clock records train the target-window CVR head through a current-status likelihood over the base observation window. Newly arrived conversions train the delay model on the conversion clock. To account for the cohort mixture, TWICE uses fixed click-time predicted CVR (pCVR) mass as cohort exposure in an arrival-conditioned likelihood. This accounts for differences in cohort traffic and conversion propensity. The resulting aggregate records are self-contained. A single learned CDF produces monotone predictions for all requested horizons up to the target conversion window. Serving requires neither historical lookup nor convolution. Experiments on a public benchmark and an industrial advertising dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of TWICE. In an online A/B test in Kwai's advertising system, TWICE increased expected revenue, revenue, and conversions by 2.486%, 1.858%, and 2.061%, respectively. It was subsequently deployed to full traffic.

Dynamic Product Ads (DPA) require retrieving relevant items from multi-million product catalogs, balancing two competing objectives: retargeting (re-surfacing known interests) and prospecting (discovering new categories). While Large Language Models (LLMs) capture semantic intent better than traditional embedding models, deploying them at scale introduces prohibitive inference costs and lexical mismatch issues. Through controlled experiments on millions of users, we demonstrate a critical retrieval decomposition: rule-generated queries excel at retargeting on a lexical BM25 index, while LLM-generated queries excel at prospecting on a dense ANN index. Building on this, we propose SMART (SeMantic-aware Adaptive ReTrieval). To manage costs, a lightweight quality gate identifies coverage gaps in initial keyword results, adaptively routing only the ~10% of users who benefit from semantic prospecting to the LLM path. Offline evaluation demonstrates that this gated approach captures the bulk of semantic prospecting gains in Relevance Score while maintaining competitive re-targeting performance at a 90% reduction in LLM costs. Finally, in a 2-week online A/B test at Snap, SMART improved the ad conversion rate by +27.6% over a strong embedding-based baseline.

Interactive image segmentation is critical for efficient image annotation; however, existing methods often require many corrective clicks or rely on passive refinement schemes that converge slowly. We propose Uncertainty-Guided Cascade Forward Refinement (U-CFR), a novel inference-time framework that enables models to autonomously self-correct after each user interaction. U-CFR introduces a boundary-aware uncertainty score that fuses segmentation uncertainty, contour gradients, and explicit edge predictions to guide the placement of internal pseudo-clicks. These self-generated clicks target the most ambiguous boundary regions, providing strong corrective signals without additional manual input. To support this process, we design a dual-head network with a shared encoder-decoder backbone: a segmentation head ensures region consistency, while an edge head sharpens boundary alignment. In inference, U-CFR launches a cascade of refinement steps, where each stage leverages the uncertainty-driven pseudo-clicks to refine the mask progressively. Experiments on standard benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed U-CFR improves click efficiency, initial mask quality, and boundary accuracy. It reduces the required clicks by over 10% on challenging datasets like Berkeley and offers a more intelligent and efficient interactive annotation.

Background. Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is central to trial enrichment and care planning, yet existing models provide no individual-level uncertainty estimates and rarely include transparent leakage audits. We introduce the first application of persistent homology to longitudinal clinical trajectory point clouds for this task, and the first split-conformal individual risk guarantee for any AD-conversion model. Methods. We analysed 741 MCI subjects (240 converters, 32.4%) from ADNI with a uniform 4-year follow-up cap. Five leakage sources were corrected; without them a naive pipeline achieved AUC=0.934, inflated by +0.075. Vietoris-Rips persistent homology and sublevel-set proxies were combined with trajectory slopes and engineered features (76 total) in a stacking ensemble evaluated by 5-fold cross-validation. Results. Cox and Random Survival Forest models with TDA features achieved concordance C=0.799 and C=0.826 versus C=0.753 and C=0.812 without (+0.045 and +0.014). The primary nested AUC is 0.840 (same-fold bound 0.866); external AUC was 0.879 on a zero-overlap ADNI-2/GO/3 cohort. H0 persistence entropy was the top SHAP feature and significantly associated with APOE4 dosage (Spearman r=-0.191, p<0.0001, Bonferroni-corrected). Cross-conformal coverage was 90.4%+-2.2% (target 90%); empirical external coverage 96.9%. Maximum fairness gap in false-negative rate across seven subgroups was 0.092. Conclusions. We propose H0 persistence entropy as a topological biomarker of cognitive decline and demonstrate that a leakage-audited, conformally calibrated pipeline reaches competitive accuracy with individual-level uncertainty quantification not previously available for this task.

New-user cold-start is a critical bottleneck for e-commerce platforms: predicting user lifetime value (LTV) and conversion rate (CVR) for users with sparse interaction history. Two prior directions -- LLM-based semantic augmentation and learning using privileged information (LUPI) -- each face a key limitation. First, LLM augmentation produces unstructured rationales that are noisy and hard to operationalize in production. Second, naive student-teacher distillation can be brittle due to an information gap between the privileged teacher and the sparse student; moreover, this gap is heterogeneous across users. We propose SemRaD, a Semantic Reasoning-aware Distillation framework addressing both limitations. First, a Structured Semantic Reasoning Pipeline replaces free-form rationales with a structured schema built via a discover-curate-audit workflow, producing per user a Densified Semantic Profile (consumed by the deployed student via a Semantic-Gated Encoder that focuses on the most informative dimensions) and a Hindsight Distillation Target reconciled from pre- and post-conversion reasoning (used only at training). Second, to bridge this gap and handle its heterogeneity, a Hindsight-Aware Distillation Network transfers privileged knowledge via the hindsight target, with Distillation Experts improving transfer under per-user variability. On a large-scale industrial dataset, SemRaD lifts +1.9% LTV (Gini) and +1.0% CVR (AUROC) over a production-grade base; a four-week online A/B at Keeta confirms +1.0% LTV / +0.43% CVR. SemRaD also matches the production system's LTV using only 9% of the training data while improving CVR by 0.8%.

Post-click conversion rate (PCVR) prediction is central to industrial recommendation, but remains challenged by the structural mismatch between sparse, unordered multi-field features and long, domain-specific behavior histories. Existing models often process these signals through separate pathways and fuse them late, weakening semantic roles and limiting cross-signal refinement. We propose RoleMix, a unified interaction architecture that represents sequential and non-sequential evidence through a shared, role-preserving token interface. Non-sequential fields are converted into explicit semantic tokens that preserve user, item, pairwise, dense, contextual, and cross-feature roles, while long behavior domains are compressed into item- and context-aware sequence-query tokens through two-stage hierarchical window attention. The resulting global, semantic, and sequence-query tokens are jointly refined by stacked UniMixing-Lite blocks for PCVR prediction. On the large-scale KDD Cup 2026 Tencent UniRec Challenge, RoleMix achieves 83.648% online AUC, outperforming the official industrial baseline by 1.953%. Ablation studies show that semantic tokenization yields the largest isolated gain, highlighting a key principle for large-scale PCVR modeling: preserving field semantics at the token-interface level is as important as scaling the interaction backbone.

Ad-load design is a central supply-side decision in sponsored search: more sponsored slots can raise revenue, but may crowd out organic results and degrade user outcomes. We study this trade-off using a large-scale randomized field experiment on an Android app store, where over five million users are exposed to one through six sponsored slots. Increasing ad load raises revenue by up to 43%, but reduces total search conversions by up to 5% and daily engagement by up to 2.2%. These average effects mask substantial heterogeneity: additional slots generate large revenue gains for high-ad-conversion queries, but little or negative marginal revenue for low-conversion queries. The trade-off also shifts within query as advertiser composition changes, such as brand-advertiser presence. Motivated by these findings, we design and deploy a novel adaptive algorithm -- exploration-augmented Locally Adaptive Ad Load (e-LAAL). e-LAAL combines LAAL, a model-free query-level decision rule that updates ad-load recommendations using recent outcomes, with static exploration arms that maintain support and provide fixed-policy counterfactual benchmarks. We provide a finite-time dynamic-regret guarantee for the e-LAAL architecture. In a platform-level production deployment serving 22.3 million users and 77.6 million searches, e-LAAL improves the empirical revenue--conversion trade-off relative to deployed static benchmarks and outperforms uniform and historical query-dependent static benchmarks.

Online ads are essential to all businesses and ad headlines are one of their core creative component. Existing methods can generate headlines automatically and also optimize their click-through-rate (CTR) and quality. However, evolving ad formats and changing creative requirements make it difficult to generate optimized & customized headlines. We propose a novel method that uses prefix control tokens along with BART fine-tuning. It yields the highest CTR and also allows users to control the length of generated headlines for use across different ad formats. The method is also flexible and can easily be adapted to other architectures, creative requirements and optimization criteria. Our experiments demonstrate a 25.82% increment in Rouge-L and a 5.82% increment in estimated CTR over previously published strong ad headline generation baseline.

Deep neural models for click-through rate prediction often exhibit a sharp decline in validation performance immediately after the first training epoch despite continued improvement in training loss. This instability restricts effective learning and limits model performance. In this study, we analyze this behavior using large-scale industrial datasets and evaluate practical mitigation strategies. While reducing the learning rate provides only incremental gains, controlling feature sparsity yields substantial improvements. Removing highly sparse features and aggregating infrequent feature values stabilizes training, extends useful learning beyond a single epoch, and improves both offline evaluation metrics and online system performance.

Offsite conversion rate (OCVR) prediction is an important ranking problem in computational recommendation systems. This task presents a modeling challenge: click signals are abundant and exhibit short temporal horizons, whereas conversion signals are inherently sparse, long-delayed, and frequently unattributed. Despite these statistical disparities, both signal types must inform models that operate within strict serving-latency constraints. Prior pre-training approaches address this heterogeneity with a single, undifferentiated encoder applied uniformly across both data streams. We propose DUET (Dual User Embedding Transformers), a framework that explicitly partitions user behavioral data into two domain-coherent streams -- clicks and conversions -- and pre-trains dedicated transformer encoders with architectures tailored to each stream's statistical characteristics: multi-layer self-attention for the dense click stream and interleaved cross- and self-attention for the sparse conversion stream. The resulting complementary embeddings are jointly consumed by a downstream ranker without exceeding serving-latency budgets. Evaluation demonstrates up to 0.38% normalized entropy (NE) reduction relative to the strongest baseline, and A/B test shows consistent improvements in OCVR prediction accuracy.

Online evaluation of ranking and retrieval systems often relies on downstream monetization metrics such as app revenue or creator earnings. These metrics are typically heavy-tailed, with a small fraction of users dominating both mean and variance, leading to low statistical power and unreliable conclusions in A/B experiments -- especially under limited traffic. We present a practical framework for variance reduction in online experiments by combining post-stratification with CUPED. Our approach leverages pre-experiment covariates to improve the sensitivity of monetization experiments without requiring additional traffic. Deployed at ShareChat across ranking-driven monetization experiments, the method substantially reduces variance and improves decision stability, achieving equivalent statistical confidence with ~45% less traffic than standard metrics. We further discuss practical design choices, guardrails, and limitations, providing guidance on when post-stratification is appropriate for real-world information retrieval and Recommendation systems.

Online advertising platforms rely on machine learning models to predict click-through rates (pCTR) and conversion rates (pCVR) for auction mechanisms. We introduce a novel framework to study the interaction between recommender system model quality, auction format, and autobidder behavior. We formalize when model improvements -- defined via a refinement relation inspired by filtrations in probability theory -- lead to improvements in platform-level Evaluation Criteria Metrics (ECM) such as revenue, welfare, or liquid welfare. Our main contributions are: (1) a formal definition of model improvement based on cluster refinement, and (2) a systematic characterization of ECM monotonicity across different combinations of bidder types (tCPA, max-CPA), auction formats (first-price, second-price, VCG), and budget constraints. We show that first-price auctions with uniform bidding guarantee revenue monotonicity for tCPA bidders without budgets (via Jensen's inequality), while second-price auctions and budget constraints can break this property. We provide full numerical constructions for the non-monotonicity results. Our findings have practical implications for advertising platforms seeking to align model improvements with business outcomes.

Scaling test-time compute has proven highly effective for language models, yet this opportunity remains largely unexplored for industrial Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. CTR models suffer from a fundamental asymmetry: feature combinations well-represented in training yield confident predictions, while sparsely observed ones produce unreliable outputs. Existing training-phase solutions such as adaptive gating learn a fixed selection function subject to the same sparsity, offering no per-instance recourse at deployment.We propose UTTSI (Uncertainty-Triggered Test-Time Selective Inference), a training-free model-agnostic framework that scales inference depth proportionally to per-instance uncertainty. A dual-signal estimator combining model logit confidence with a data-level frequency prior distinguishes epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric ambiguity. Every instance undergoes adaptive feature filtering to remove unreliable embeddings; uncertain instances additionally receive stochastic feature-path explorations whose predictions are aggregated via consistency-weighted ensembling. Confident instances bypass exploration entirely, keeping average overhead at approximately $2.8\times$ base model cost with worst-case latency unchanged.Experiments on four datasets with three backbone architectures demonstrate consistent, statistically significant gains over all training-phase baselines. A seven-day online A/B test further confirms a 5.3% relative CTR gain ($p < 0.01$), establishing selective test-time compute allocation as a practical complement to training-phase advances for CTR prediction.

Generative pre-training via discrete diffusion provides dense reconstruction supervision across all feature fields simultaneously, mitigating representation collapse from data sparsity in CTR prediction. However, all existing generative CTR methods share a fundamental limitation: the reconstruction objective assigns equal training weight to every feature field, ignoring the profound heterogeneity of reconstruction difficulty across high-cardinality ID fields, sparse categorical attributes, numerical values, and behavioral sequences. This causes easy fields to dominate training gradients while the hardest but most informative fields remain chronically underfit, a problem we term the generative difficulty imbalance.We propose HeteGenCTR, which resolves this imbalance through per-field learnable difficulty parameters jointly trained with the denoising network. This unified signal drives two coordinated components without additional hyperparameters: a self-balancing loss that automatically reallocates gradient budget toward harder fields with a provably stable equilibrium, and a difficulty-guided attention mechanism that suppresses the influence of already-converged easy fields while amplifying cross-field information flow toward hard fields. Both components share the same learned signal and remain mutually consistent throughout training. Experiments on five CTR benchmarks and a seven-day online A/B test demonstrate consistent, statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, with disproportionate gains for cold-start and long-tail users.

Modeling long-term user interests with massive historical user behaviors enhances click-through rate (CTR) prediction performance in advertising and recommendation systems. Typically, a two-stage framework is widely adopted, where a general search unit (GSU) first retrieves top-$k$ relevant behaviors towards the target item, and an exact search unit (ESU) generates interest features via tailored attention. However, current target-centered GSU would ignore other latent user interests, leading to incomplete and biased interest features. Additionally, the matching-based retrieval process in GSUs depends on the pairwise similarity score between target item and each historical behavior, which not only becomes time-consuming for online services as user behaviors continue to grow, but also overlooks the interaction information among user behaviors. To combat these problems, we propose a \textbf{Gen}erative \textbf{L}ong-term user \textbf{I}nterest model named GenLI for CTR prediction. GenLI consists of an interest generation module (IGM), a behavior retrieval module (BRM), and an interest fusion module (IFM). The IGM generates multiple interest distributions to indicate different aspects of real-time user interests, which is target-independent and incorporates interaction information among behaviors, ensuring complete and diverse interest features. The BRM selects related behaviors via a simple lookup operation, reducing the time complexity for weighting each behavior to $O(1)$. Finally, the IFM uses delicate gating mechanisms to generate interest features. Based on the generation process, GenLI improves the diversity of user interests and avoids complex matching-based behavioral retrieval, achieving a better balance between accuracy and efficiency for CTR prediction.

Current models for predicting social media virality rely heavily on static textual and structural features, effectively ignoring the highly dynamic nature of trend signals. We study whether real-world attention signals can improve the prediction of social-media virality beyond what post text alone reveals. We introduce ViralityNet, an architecture that predicts Reddit post virality by fusing internal platform representations with exogenous temporal signals derived from Wikipedia pageview spikes. We frame virality as a binary classification task that accounts for differences in subreddit scale, labeling posts as viral if they exceed the 90th percentile of per-subreddit engagement and a minimum absolute score threshold. ViralityNet combines four post-level streams: title embeddings, body embeddings, structural metadata, and learned subreddit embeddings with a cross-attention block that queries a daily sliding-window trends matrix encoding the top-512 Wikipedia spike terms from the preceding seven days. Empirical results suggest that incorporating external attention signals yields consistent gains, outperforming text-only baselines by +0.015 AUC-PR and achieving an overall AUC-ROC of 0.836. Overall, we provide evidence that incorporating external attention signals yields measurable improvements over text-only baselines, highlighting the importance of real-world dynamics in shaping online virality.

Sequential recommendation models often struggle to capture latent periodic patterns in user interests, primarily due to the noise inherent in time-domain behavioral data. While frequency-domain analysis offers a global perspective to address this, existing approaches typically treat user sequences in isolation, overlooking the crucial context of the target item. In this work, we present a novel empirical observation: user attention scores exhibit distinct spectral entropy distributions when conditioned on positive versus negative target items. Specifically, true user interests manifest as highly concentrated spectral patterns with lower entropy in the frequency domain, whereas irrelevant behaviors appear as high-entropy noise. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Frequency-Enhanced Deep Interest Network (FEDIN). FEDIN introduces a frequency-domain branch that utilizes a target-aware spectrum filtering mechanism to isolate these periodic interest signals. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that FEDIN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation baselines, demonstrating superior robustness against noise. We have released our code at: https://github.com/otokoneko/FEDIN.

Although precise recall is a core objective in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), a critical oversight persists in the field: improvements in retrieval performance do not consistently translate to commensurate gains in downstream reasoning. To diagnose this gap, we propose the Recall Conversion Rate (RCR), a novel evaluation metric to quantify the contribution of retrieval to reasoning accuracy. Our quantitative analysis of mainstream RAG methods reveals that as Recall@5 improves, the RCR exhibits a near-linear decay. We identify the neglect of retrieval quality in these methods as the underlying cause. In contrast, approaches that focus solely on quality optimization often suffer from inferior recall performance. Both categories lack a comprehensive understanding of retrieval quality optimization, resulting in a trade-off dilemma. To address these challenges, we propose comprehensive retrieval quality optimization criteria and introduce the NeocorRAG framework. This framework achieves holistic retrieval quality optimization by systematically mining and utilizing Evidence Chains. Specifically, NeocorRAG first employs an innovative activated search algorithm to obtain a refined candidate space. Then it ensures precise evidence chain generation through constrained decoding. Finally, the retrieved set of evidence chains guides the retrieval optimization process. Evaluated on benchmarks including HotpotQA, 2WikiMultiHopQA, MuSiQue, and NQ, NeocorRAG achieves SOTA performance on both 3B and 70B parameter models, while consuming less than 20% of tokens used by comparable methods. This study presents an efficient, training-free paradigm for RAG enhancement that effectively optimizes retrieval quality while maintaining high recall. Our code is released at https://github.com/BUPT-Reasoning-Lab/NeocorRAG.

Multi-behavior recommendation aims to predict user conversions by modeling various interaction types that carry distinct intent signals. Recently, generative sequence modeling methods have emerged as an important paradigm for multi-behavior recommendation by achieving flexible sequence generation. However, existing generative methods typically treat behaviors as auxiliary token features and feed them into unified attention mechanisms. These models implicitly assume uniform activation of dependencies among historical behaviors, thereby failing to discern differences in intensity or capture transition patterns. To address these limitations, we propose BITRec, a novel generative multi-behavior recommendation framework that introduces structured behavioral modeling through selective dependency activation. BITRec incorporates (i) Hierarchical Behavior Aggregation (HBA), which explicitly models behavioral intensity differences through separated exploration and commitment pathways, and (ii) Transition Relation Encoding (TRE), which encodes transition structures through explicit learnable relation matrices. Experiments on four large-scale datasets (RetailRocket, Taobao, Tmall, Insurance Dataset) with millions of interactions achieve consistent improvements of 15-23% across multiple metrics, with peak gains of 22.79% MRR on Tmall and 17.83% HR@10, 17.55% NDCG@10 on Taobao.

Delayed feedback poses a core challenge for online CVR prediction, forcing a trade-off between label accuracy and data freshness. Existing methods address this through delay modeling or sample reweighting, yet neglect how post-click behaviors evolve over the observation period. To overcome this limitation, we formalize this evolution as feedback trajectory and propose TRACE. Instead of forcing hard labels on unrevealed samples, our method evaluates how well the accumulated feedback status aligns with conversion versus non-conversion, dynamically refining posteriors without waiting for final outcomes. To counteract early-stage trajectory sparsity, we further design a reliability-gated retrospective completer that leverages full-lifecycle data to provide adaptive posterior guidance for unrevealed samples. Extensive experiments validate TRACE's superiority over state-of-the-art baselines and confirm the retrospective completion module as a model-agnostic enhancer for existing systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LunaZhangxy/TRACE.

Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is an auction-generated outcome shaped by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser's history. From 1.66 billion Google Ads log records for a concentrated car-rental market (2021-2023), we construct a weekly panel of 1,811 keyword series over 127 weeks (218,924 keyword-week observations) and build competition-aware proxies from keyword text, CPC trajectories, and geographic market structure. The design combines (i) semantic neighborhoods and a semantic keyword graph from pretrained transformer-based keyword representations, (ii) behavioral neighborhoods from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) alignment of CPC trajectories, and (iii) geographic-intent covariates capturing localized demand and marketplace heterogeneity. We evaluate these signals both as exogenous covariates and as relational priors in spatiotemporal graph forecasters, benchmarking them against statistical, neural, and time-series foundation-model baselines. The results reveal a clear horizon crossover. At one week, graph-based models achieve the lowest error, reducing sMAPE by 15.1% relative to the strongest classical/ML baseline; at the six- and twelve-week horizons, covariate-augmented foundation models dominate, reducing sMAPE by 22.5% and 27.6%, respectively. The gains concentrate in the high-CPC, high-volatility keywords where forecasting errors are most costly. A falsification battery supports the competition interpretation at the planning horizon: the semantic competition graph outperforms a confounder-matched non-competitive graph by 4.05 sMAPE points, and matched-neighbour and time-shuffled controls show the six-week gains are competition-specific rather than generic smoothing. Together, the findings establish a horizon-dependent competition-aware forecasting design for auction-driven advertising markets under partial observability.

Brand advertising plays a critical role in building long-term consumer awareness and loyalty, making it a key objective for advertisers across digital platforms. Although real-time bidding has been extensively studied, there is limited literature on algorithms specifically tailored for brand auction ads that fully leverage their unique characteristics. In this paper, we propose a lightweight Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework designed for brand advertising campaigns, exploiting the inherent attributes of brand ads -- such as stable user engagement patterns and fast feedback loops -- to simplify modeling and improve efficiency. Our approach utilizes online isotonic regression to construct monotonic bid-to-spend and bid-to-conversion models directly from streaming data, eliminating the need for complex machine learning models. The algorithm operates fully online with low computational overhead, making it highly practical for real-world deployment. Simulation results demonstrate that our approach significantly improves spend efficiency and cost control compared to baseline strategies, providing a scalable and easily implementable solution for modern brand advertising platforms.

Content-driven platforms such as Xiaohongshu often leverage click-through rate (CTR) prediction models for recommendation. However, these models depend heavily on item ID embeddings, which perform poorly in item cold-start settings. In this paper, we present IDProxy, a production-scale system developed at Xiaohongshu to address this challenge. IDProxy leverages multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to generate proxy embeddings from rich content signals, enabling CTR prediction for new items in the absence of usage data. Through a lightweight coarse-to-fine mechanism, these proxies are aligned with the ID embedding space and trained end-to-end with the ranking model, allowing seamless integration into production-facing pipelines. Extensive offline and online experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, which has been deployed in 2025 in Xiaohongshu's Content Feed and Display Ads features, reaching hundreds of millions of users daily.

In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. Observed clicks reflect a mixture of users' intrinsic preferences and the uplift induced by these interventions. This causes conventional models to miscalibrate base CTRs, which distorts downstream ranking and billing decisions. Furthermore, marketing interventions often operate as multi-valued treatments with varying magnitudes, introducing additional complexity to CTR prediction. To address these issues, we propose the Unified Multi-Valued Treatment Network (UniMVT). Specifically, UniMVT disentangles confounding factors from treatment-sensitive representations, enabling a full-space counterfactual inference module to jointly reconstruct the debiased base CTR and intensity-response curves. To handle the complexity of multi-valued treatments, UniMVT employs an auxiliary intensity estimation task to capture treatment propensities and devise a unit uplift objective that normalizes the intervention effect. This ensures comparable estimation across the continuous coupon-value spectrum. UniMVT simultaneously achieves debiased CTR prediction for accurate system calibration and precise uplift estimation for incentive allocation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and industrial datasets demonstrate UniMVT's superiority in both predictive accuracy and calibration. Furthermore, real-world A/B tests confirm that UniMVT significantly improves business metrics through more effective coupon distribution.

Temporal cascade prediction is widely studied, yet its empirical foundations remain fragile. Most existing works report results under random cascade splits that mix past and future signals, rely on datasets with limited features and no downstream conversion labels, and compare increasingly complex models without systematically examining whether benchmark conclusions are protocol-dependent. This paper argues that the field should move from leakage-prone evaluation toward fidelity-aware benchmarking. We introduce a protocol suite and renewed evaluation standard for temporal cascade prediction, centered on the Full Temporal protocol, overlap-based leakage diagnostics, and analyses of performance inflation and temporal drift. To broaden the scope of benchmark tasks, we also present Taoke, a real-world e-commerce cascade dataset with rich promoter/product features and observed purchase conversions, enabling both first-stage popularity forecasting and second-stage conversion forecasting under a shared benchmark asset. Finally, we include CasTemp as a lightweight reference method and additionally probe a larger same-task internal extension to verify that this pipeline remains operational at substantially greater scale. Together, these components turn cascade prediction from a protocol-sensitive leaderboard exercise into a more reliable analysis and benchmarking problem, while still providing a practical reference pipeline for large-scale evaluation and conversion-aware modeling.