Conformal Prediction

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Conformal Calibration

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Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

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Conformal Risk Control

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Conformal Inference

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Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation
Jun 10, 2026Seungjin ChoiConformal Inference Conformal Calibration
Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts
Jun 9, 2026Jef Jonkers, Johanna ZiegelConformal Prediction Distribution Shifts
SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors
Jun 9, 2026Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Sébastien DesterckeConformal Prediction
Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising
Jun 8, 2026Prashant Shekhar, Caroline HowardAds Congestion Mitigation
Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
Jun 8, 2026Valery ManokhinMultivariate Forecasting Conformal Prediction
CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization
Jun 8, 2026Suhana Bedi, Bridget Lin, Anson Y. Zhou +5Summarization Large Language Model Safety
Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning with Valid Factuality Control for Large Language Models
Jun 7, 2026Ting Wang, Yuanjie Shi, Yan Yan +1Large Language Model Reasoning Inference-Time
Operator learning for the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations: a conformal prediction approach in the data-scarce regime
Jun 7, 2026Weinan Wang, Bowen Gang, Hao DengProbabilistic Operator Learning Shallow Water Equations
A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control
Jun 7, 2026Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao LiuConformal Risk Control Finite-Sample Certificates
Conformal Prediction for Neural Operators: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Physics Simulation
Jun 7, 2026Michael ChinReliable Uncertainty Quantification Neural Operators
SoK: Reconstruction Attacks on Synthetic Tabular Data (Insights from Winning the NIST CRC)
Jun 6, 2026Steven Golob, Sikha Pentyala, Martine De CockSynthetic Tabular Data Privacy-Preserving Framework
Generative Frontier Planning for Adaptive Peer-Referral Recruitment under Covariate-Dependent Arrivals
Jun 6, 2026Lingkai Kong, Hezi Jiang, Andrew Ma +3Adaptive Sampling Covariate Shift
Conformal Risk Sharing: Certified Cost Allocation with Participation Guarantees
Jun 4, 2026Ieva KazlauskaiteConformal Risk Control Finite-Sample Certificates
Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee
Jun 4, 2026Zihan Zhu, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas +1Conformal Prediction Conditional-Value-At-Risk
Distribution-Free Risk-Aware Planning and Control Under Uncertainty Using Conformal Spectral Risk Control
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Privacy-Robust Incrementality Measurement for Advertising Systems under Signal Loss
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Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling
Jun 2, 2026Nicolas Emmenegger, Theo X. Olausson, Armando Solar-Lezama +1Large Language Model Generation Large Language Model Post-Training
Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values
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Bayesian Tensor Decomposition with Diffusion Model Prior
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The Ghost Annotator: a Framework to Explore Human Label Variation in Content Moderation through Conformal Prediction
Jun 1, 2026Mirko Lai, Alessandra Urbinati, Simona Frenda +2Human Annotators Large Language Model Uncertainty
One Transit Is All You Need: Detecting Exoplanets Through Learned Stellar Behaviour with EXOVEIL
Jun 1, 2026Pratik PriyanshuExoplanet Atmospheres Phase-Folded Light Curves
Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction
Jun 1, 2026Yujia Tong, Yuxi Wang, Yunyang Wan +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Compression
Conformal Risk Prediction for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Using Gradient Boosting with Distribution-Free Coverages
May 31, 2026Xinze ZhangCholangiocarcinoma Cardiometabolic Risk
Multi-Agent Conformal Prediction with Personalized Statistical Validity
May 30, 2026Martin V. Vejling, Christophe A. N. Biscio, Adrien Mazoyer +2Conformal Prediction Heterogeneity
DistMatch: Adaptive Binning via Distribution Matching for Robust Sequential Conformal Prediction
May 30, 2026Enver Menadjiev, Jihyeon Seong, Jisu Yeo +1Conformal Prediction Quantile Regression
Parameter-Free and Group Conditional Online Conformal Prediction
May 29, 2026Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi +1Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees Conformal Prediction
Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference
May 29, 2026Catherine Chen, Jingyan Shen, Zhun Deng +1Conditional-Value-At-Risk Conformal Risk Control
Out-of-Distribution generalization of quantile regression with heavy tailed inputs: an SVM approach
May 29, 2026Baptiste Leroux, Clément Dombry, Anne SabourinQuantile Regression Support Vector Machines
Conformal Reliability: A New Evaluation Metric for Conditional Generation
May 29, 2026Yachen Gao, Xinwei Sun, Yikai Wang +4Conformal Prediction Evaluation Metrics
BOKBO (Best of K Bad Options): Calibrated Abstention for VLA Policies
May 28, 2026Anya Singh, Cabrel Happi, Jai Relan +2Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models Vision-Language-Action Models
Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series
May 28, 2026Hanyang Jiang, Rina Foygel Barber, Ashwin Pananjady +1Conformal Prediction Multivariate Forecasting
UNIQ: Conformal Calibration for Adaptive Conservatism in Offline Reinforcement Learning
May 28, 2026Aditya UpadhyayOffline Reinforcement Learning Reliable Uncertainty Quantification
Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes
May 28, 2026Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen +1Reasoning Traces Certification
Conf-Gen: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Generative Models
May 27, 2026Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem, Kevin Zhang, Wei Cui +2Large Language Model Uncertainty Generative Models
Anomaly as Non-Conformity via Training-Free Graph Laplacian Energy Minimization
May 27, 2026Jungwook Seo, Minjeong Kim, Younkwan Lee +2Anomaly Anomaly Detection
PINE: Pruning Boosted Tree Ensembles with Conformal In-Distribution Prediction Equivalence
May 27, 2026Haruki Yajima, Yusuke MatsuiDecision Trees Heterogeneous Pruning Scores
SAFEVPR: Patch-Based Conformal Verification for Safe Cross-Condition Sequence Visual Place Recognition
May 27, 2026Ha Sier, Jiaqiang Zhang, Zhuo Zou +2Visual Place Recognition Vision Sensors
Adversarial Training for Robust Coverage Network under Worst-case Facility Losses
May 26, 2026Changhao Miao, Yuntian Zhang, Tongyu Wu +2Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees Adversarial Training
Control Physiology: An Agent-Based Model of FAIR-CAM Dynamics
May 26, 2026Jack Jones, Laura VoicuIncident Response Agent-Based Model
Distribution-Aware Conformal Prediction: A Framework for generating efficient prediction intervals for time series
May 26, 2026Daniel Schweizer, Peter Kuhn, Jayant Sharma +3Conformal Prediction Quantile Regression
Structure-Adaptive Conformal Inference for Large-Scale Out-of-Distribution Testing
May 26, 2026Rongyi Sun, Wenguang Sun, Zinan ZhaoConformal Inference Out-Of-Distribution
MiRD: Reliable Set-Valued Prediction for Open-Ended Question Answering via Miscoverage Risk Decomposition
May 25, 2026Anqi Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Zijun Jia +1Open-Ended Responses Nonconformity Scores
Conformalised imprecise inference for robust extrapolation under limited data
May 25, 2026Yu Chen, Scott FersonConformal Inference Epistemic Uncertainty
Geometry Adaptive Counterfactual Distribution Learning with Diffusion-Guided Smoothing
May 25, 2026Kwangho KimConformal Inference Causal Inferences
Choosing Online Experiment Designs under Interference in Ads, Recommendations, and Member-Experience Systems
May 24, 2026Prashant Shekhar, Caroline HowardBayesian Experimental Design Optimal Design
Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage
May 24, 2026Tomer Lavi, Bracha Shapira, Nadav RappoportConformal Prediction
Stream Assembly Is an Uncontrolled Treatment in Streaming Intrusion-Detection Benchmarks
May 23, 2026Michel A. YoussefIntrusion Detection Conformal Risk Control
Multicalibration Boosting: Theory, Convergence, and Transferability
May 23, 2026Hanxuan Ye, Hongzhe LiConformal Prediction Multicalibration and Calibration
Anisotropic Diffusion-Driven Ergodic Coverage in Multi-Robot Systems
May 22, 2026Thales C. Silva, Anoop Kiran, Nora AyanianMulti-Robot Systems Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees
Empirical Bayes Conformal Prediction for Vision and Language Models
May 22, 2026Jiapeng Zeng, Yogesh Prabhu, Zhanpeng Zeng +2Conformal Prediction Nonconformity Scores
SLIP-RS: Structured-Attribute Language-Image Pre-Training for Remote Sensing Object Detection
May 22, 2026Chenxu Wang, Yuxuan Li, Yunheng Li +3Fine-Grained Perception Object Detection
CausalGuard: Conformal Inference under Graph Uncertainty
May 21, 2026Vikash Singh, Weicong Chen, Debargha Ganguly +12Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Conformal Inference
Mind the Gaps: Multi-Robot Feedback-Driven Ergodic Coverage in Unknown Environments
May 20, 2026Thales Costa Silva, Nora AyanianMulti-Robot Systems Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees
Distributed Multi-Coverage for Robot Swarms
May 20, 2026Mariem Guitouni, Aaron T. BeckerUnmanned Aerial Vehicle Swarms Swarms
A Deployment Audit of Release-Side Risk in Conformal Triage under Prevalence Shift
May 20, 2026Chengze Li, Xiao Liu, Hanrong Zhang +7Triage Conformal Risk Control
Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference
May 20, 2026Ziang Song, Ying Jin, Emmanuel J. CandèsFalse Discovery Rate Conformal Inference
Online Conformal Prediction with Corrupted Feedback
May 19, 2026Bowen Wang, Matteo Zecchin, Osvaldo SimeoneConformal Prediction Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees
CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support
May 19, 2026Ricardo Diaz-Rincon, Muxuan Liang, Adolfo Ramirez-Zamora +1Clinical Prediction Conformal Calibration
Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Continuous AI Agent Evaluation
May 19, 2026Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling YuAgentic Evaluations Conformal Inference
Conformal Selective Acting: Anytime-Valid Risk Control for RLVR-Trained LLMs
May 18, 2026Hamed Khosravi, Xiaoming HuoConformal Risk Control Reinforcement Learning With Verifiable Reward

Jun 10, 2026 · stat.MLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation

Seungjin Choi

1CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms. \emph{Post-hoc calibration} tilts the posterior predictive toward the target domain and corrects the conformal threshold via an importance-weighted quantile, leaving the parameter posterior unchanged. \emph{In-training adaptation} tilts the parameter posterior itself to the target domain, producing a corrected predictive whose highest predictive density region serves as the highest predictive density (HPD)-based prediction set under the fitted target predictive; efficiency is model-dependent and does not imply finite-sample conditional optimality. Two controlled experiments isolate the regime-dependence of each strategy: in the low-dimensional, well-estimated regime Strategy~~A produces the narrowest valid intervals, while in the high-dimensional, underdetermined regime Strategy~~B achieves up to

43\%

width reduction at unchanged coverage, under the stated source-sampling and label-shift assumptions.

Conformal Inference Conformal Calibration Posterior Candidate Label Distributions Domain Shift

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