Counterfactual Evaluation

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13 papers in the last four weeks, up 44% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Equilibrium Causal Digital Twins: Validation, Transport, and Identification Limits
Jul 23, 2026Faraz Dadgostari, Neda NazemiCounterfactual Evaluation Structural Causal Models
Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Montana State University · Gianforte School of Computing, Montana State University
EditCLEVR: A Paired-Scene Intervention Benchmark for Compositional Faithfulness of Object-Centric Representations
Jul 19, 2026Anuraag Gadehothur Karnam, Tarunesh SathishCounterfactual Evaluation Object-Centric Representation Learning
Lebanon Trail High School · Walnut Grove High School
Constraint-Aware Counterfactual Editing for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis
Jul 15, 2026S M Rafiuddin, Vamsi Krishna Pavuluri, Atriya SenCounterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Department of Computer Science, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
NormWorlds-CF: Solver-Verified Counterfactual Normative Reasoning with Metamorphic-Relation GRPO
Jul 4, 2026Xinqi ZhangCounterfactual Evaluation Moral Reasoning in Language Models
Tsinghua University
Do Medical Vision Language Models Actually See? A Counterfactual Grounding Framework and Hard-Negative Contrastive Training for Visually-Reliant Medical VLMs
Jul 4, 2026Anas Zafar, Leema Krishna Murali, Siddhant Bharadwaj +2VLM Evaluation Counterfactual Evaluation
The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center · Eisai Inc. · Cohere Labs Community +1
A causal modeling perspective on decision theory
Jun 29, 2026Arvid SjölanderCounterfactual Evaluation
Karolinska Institutet
Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing
Jun 16, 2026Donghang Li, Dingyi Zhuang, Yunlin Li +5Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Effect Estimation
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Center for Computational Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA +4
Faithful Action-unit Causal Reasoning for Counterfactually Faithful Emotion Explanations
Jun 14, 2026Van Thong Huynh, Hong Hai Nguyen, Thuy Pham +2Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Faculty of CSE, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT), VNUHCM, Vietnam · Dept. of AI, FPT University, Vietnam · Faculty of DSAI, College of Technology, National Economic University, Vietnam +1
Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation
Jun 14, 2026Nils MattesonCounterfactual Evaluation Token-Level Credit Assignment
Northeastern University
Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Football
Jun 9, 2026Andrew Kang, Priya NarasimhanCounterfactual Evaluation Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction
Carnegie Mellon University · Pittsburgh, USA
Causal Agent Replay: Counterfactual Attribution for LLM-Agent Failures
Jun 6, 2026Jaineet ShahAgent Failure Analysis AI Agent Reliability
Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling: A Methodology for Counterfactual Outcome Measurement in Algorithmic DEX Trading
Jun 6, 2026Arati Uday KamatCounterfactual Evaluation Decentralized Finance
Independent Researcher
Revising Context, Shifting Simulated Stance: Auditing LLM-Based Stance Simulation in Online Discussions
Jun 4, 2026Xinnong Zhang, Wanting Shan, Hanjia Lyu +2Counterfactual Evaluation LLM Auditing
1Fudan University · 3Shanghai Innovation Institute · University of Rochester
A Geometric View of Counterfactual Behavior: Interaction of Boundary Proximity and Local Support
Jun 2, 2026Ioanna Gemou, Matteo Gamba, Randall Balestriero +1Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Brown University
Counterfactual Evaluation Reveals Hidden Capability Profiles in Clinical LLMs and Agents
May 28, 2026Matt TurkCounterfactual Evaluation Healthcare
Protege Data Lab New York City, USA
DMC-CF: Dynamic Multimodal CounterFactual QA benchmark for Causal Reasoning
May 28, 2026Junzhe Zhang, Huixuan Zhang, Guirong Wang +5Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Reasoning in Language Models
Wangxuan Institute of Computer Technology, Peking University · Alibaba Group
When Context Flips, Safety Breaks: Diagnosing Brittle Safety in Aligned Language Models
May 27, 2026Dasol Choi, Alex KwonLLM Safety Benchmarks Counterfactual Evaluation
AIM Intelligence · Independent Researcher
Foundations of a Time-Consistent Counterfactual Actuarial Runtime for Autonomous AI Agents
May 26, 2026Hao-Hsuan ChenCounterfactual Evaluation AI Risk Management
Department of Risk Management and Insurance National Chengchi University
Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarks
May 22, 2026Kan ShaoCounterfactual Evaluation Benchmark Auditing
Jinglue Technology Development (Nanjing) Co., Ltd., Nanjing, China
CRONOS: Benchmarking Counterfactual Physical Consistency in Video Models
May 22, 2026León Begiristain, Olaf Dünkel, Adam KortylewskiCounterfactual Evaluation Physical Consistency in Video Generation
University of Freiburg · Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany · Max Planck Institute for Informatics +3
Learning Spatiotemporal Sensitivity in Video LLMs via Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning
May 21, 2026Dazhao Du, Jian Liu, Jialong Qin +7Counterfactual Evaluation Video-Language Models
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Tencent
Counterfactual Likelihood Tests for Indirect Influence in Private Reasoning Channels
May 18, 2026Alexander Boesgaard LorupCounterfactual Evaluation LLM Interpretability
Openhagen
When Bits Break Recourse: Counterfactual-Faithful Quantization
May 16, 2026Chaymae Yahyati, Ismail Lamaakal, Khalid El Makkaoui +1Mixed-Precision Quantization Counterfactual Evaluation
Mohammed First University
What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions
May 14, 2026Shuqi Gu, Yongxiang Zhao, Baoyu Jing +1Counterfactual Evaluation Time Series Forecasting
School of Information Science and Technology, ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China · University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, United States.
Heuristic Pathologies and Further Variance Reduction via Uncertainty Propagation in the AIVAT Family of Techniques
May 14, 2026Juho Kim, Tuomas SandholmCounterfactual Evaluation Uncertainty Quantification
Computer Science Department Carnegie Mellon University
A Proof-of-Concept Simulation-Driven Digital Twin Framework for Decision-Aware Diabetes Modeling
May 11, 2026Zarrin MonirzadehCounterfactual Evaluation Digital Twins
Portland, OR, USA
Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation
May 11, 2026George PanagopoulosCounterfactual Evaluation Causal Effect Estimation
Department of Computer Science University of Luxembourg 2 Av. de l’Universite, 4365 Belval Esch-sur-Alzette
Compared to What? Baselines and Metrics for Counterfactual Prompting
May 1, 2026Zihao Yang, Mosh Levy, Yoav Goldberg +1Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Interventions in Language Models
Northeastern University · Bar-Ilan University · Allen Institute for AI
Auditing Marketing Budget Allocation with Hindsight Regret
Apr 28, 2026Nilavra Pathak, Olivier Jeunen, Eric LambertCounterfactual Evaluation Algorithmic Auditing
Expedia Group · New York, USA · aampe +2
Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices
Apr 25, 2026Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson, Dominik Rothenhäusler +3Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Effect Estimation
Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University · Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley · Technology and Operations Management Unit, Harvard Business School +3

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Equilibrium Causal Digital Twins: Validation, Transport, and Identification Limits

Faraz Dadgostari, Neda Nazemi

Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Montana State University · Gianforte School of Computing, Montana State University

Counterfactual Evaluation Structural Causal Models Causal Identifiability Digital Twins Causal Inference

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Digital twins are often used to predict how a system would respond to an intervention. In systems with feedback, a twin must reproduce an equilibrium counterfactual, and a twin developed in one domain may fail after mechanisms change. We study when these predictions can be validated and transported. For equilibrium causal games, we give conditions on the mechanisms, equilibrium selection, and intervention design under which agreement with experimental distributions identifies the counterfactual of interest. We show why agreement of means and covariances is insufficient for distributional queries. We then introduce cyclic selection diagrams and derive criteria for direct reuse and for hybrid models that combine invariant source mechanisms with target information. An impossibility result constructs systems that agree under every experiment in a finite design but disagree on the target counterfactual, showing that validation requires structural assumptions. For linear models, we derive intervention requirements that depend on the mechanisms that changed, the observation model, and graph support. When point identification fails, we characterize the remaining range of query values. We also provide statistical tests for reconstructed means and covariances and illustrate the theory in synthetic feedback systems.

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